The Canada Project’s Final Report Mission Possible: Sustainable Prosperity for Canada May 24, 2007...
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Transcript of The Canada Project’s Final Report Mission Possible: Sustainable Prosperity for Canada May 24, 2007...
The Canada Project’s Final Report
Mission Possible: Sustainable Prosperity for Canada
May 24, 2007
Mario Lefebvre, Director, Metropolitan Outlook Service [email protected]
Synthesizes leading research and thinking on the major issues affecting Canadian prosperity
Offers new analysis and arguments to expand our understanding of these issues
Injects the concept of sustainability into discussions of productivity and competitiveness
Brings urgency by demonstrating the risks of complacency and inaction.
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Mission Possible: Sustainable Prosperity for Canada
The core hypothesis: Canada is slipping, due to slow adaptation to profound global changes:
– shifting engine of economic growth from aging industrial countries to the rapidly growing emerging markets, led by China.
– integrative trade, or the realignment of international business based on global supply chains and driven by foreign direct investment.
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Volume I: Stellar Canadian Performance in the Global Economy
Note: The data for Poland and Turkey are not available.Source: OECD.
0
1
2
3
4
5
Growth in Labour Productivity Among OECD Countries, 1999–2004
(average annual growth rate, per cent)
National Strategies for Success
Embrace Productivity and Competitiveness Create a Single Canadian Market Rethink the Workforce Revitalize International Trade and Investment Refocus Foreign Policy Priorities
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Setting Priorities: Two Options• Option 1: Focus on “Quick Hits”
– Invest in education– Implement an innovation strategy– Re-focus foreign policy with the United States
• Option 2: Take Action in the Areas of Greatest Under-performance– Create a single Canadian market– Establish a well-defined trade and investment policy– Address the aging labour force
• Our advice: Pursue the second option —but act on all the recommendations
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This volume focuses on growth in global demand for natural resources and what Canada must do to take advantage of these time-limited opportunities while also protecting the environment and the public.
The volume provides analysis and advice in four sectors: forests, agri-food, mining, energy
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Volume II: A Canadian Resources Strategy for the Boom and Beyond
Growth in Global Demand
Emerging economies fuelling growth in demand for natural resources
China’s middle class is about 200 million and it will double by 2010
India’s middle class is 90 million and growing rapidly
Economies and populations of Canada and U.S. expanding.
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Volume II Shows that: Canada has vast natural resources to benefit from
the growing global demand for resource-based products
It must renew and invest in resource sectors to tap into time-limited opportunities
But these investments must be prudent to protect prosperity and the wellbeing of future generations
Decisions made must help resource sectors and communities prosper and stay resilient.
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Globally, cities and city-regions are at the core of national prosperity agendas
Cities are attracting public and private investment to make them more liveable, more competitive and more sustainable
Canada is not keeping up -- why?
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Volume III: Mission Possible: Successful Cities
Make major cities a national priority Strengthen the cornerstones of competitive cities
Infrastructure Sustainability -- industrial ecology Governance
Give major cities the power and fiscal resources they need for success
If we get these right, Canada will be well on its way toachieving sustainable prosperity.
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Three Imperatives for Achieving Successful Cities
For years now, the CBoC has documented that Canada’s cities are under-funded
Hurray! Hurray! The message has been heard and additional money (though not enough of it) is coming
This study shows that the politically appealing per capita method of distributing this new money is not, in many cases, optimal
Given their role as economic engines in their respective provinces, new funding should be allocated strategically so as to meet the needs of the country’s nine hub cities. This would be a win-win strategy for every citizen.
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Canada’s Hub Cities:A Driving Force of the National Economy
80% of Canadians live in urban areas
The trend is towards even greater urbanization
More than 50% of new arrivals settle in Toronto; another 25% split between Montreal and Vancouver; the remaining 25% elsewhere
More than half Canada’s Aboriginal people live in cities, compared with only 6.7 per cent in 1951
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Canada is Highly Urbanized
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
01 05 15 25
Leader Follower
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
The Convergence Hypothesis A Textbook Case
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Persistence in Relative Unemployment Rates in Canada
The Lack of Labor Mobility
sk
pei
nl
nb
ns
qc
bcon
abmb
1996-2004
1987-95
6
7
8
9
10
06 07 08 09 10
Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada.
Persistence (or non-) in Relative Unemployment Rates in Ontario
Labor is mobile within provinces
lo
tb
su
roos
knto
og
hakw
1996-2004
1987-95
sc
wi
Implications of the ResultsThree Convergence Scenarios
Source: The Conference Board of Canada.
62,41761,625
42,847
57,667 60,430 60,83856,471
38,991
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
70,000
Starting Point-2006
Scenario 1 - 2020 No new funding
Scenario 2 -2020 Per capita funding
Scenario 3 -2020 Hub cities priority
funding
Leader Follower
Policy Conclusions
Inter-provincial barriers mean there are nine hub cities in Canada – not just two or three
They are: Halifax, Montreal, Toronto, Winnipeg, Regina, Saskatoon, Calgary, Edmonton and Vancouver
Helping hub cities to reach their economic potential must be a national priority, since everyone benefits
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Policy Conclusions New funding should address the full spectrum of assets that
support thriving urban economies, particularly infrastructure
But: This study does NOT suggest that a grossly disproportionate allocation of funding should go to the nine hub cities
Just an amount reflecting their distinctive needs and potential as drivers of the Canadian economy
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Concluding Message from The Canada Project
• Canada has all the tools needed to reposition itself as a global leader, if it can meet the challenge and implement the strategies proposed.
• Leadership is what matters next.
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