1107 9th Street,

Suite 310

Sacramento,

California 95814

(916) 444-0500

www.cbp.org

cbp@cbp.org

1107 9th Street,

Suite 310

Sacramento,

California 95814

(916) 444-0500

www.cbp.org

cbp@cbp.org

The California Budget Project

A PRESENTATION BY VICKY LOVELL, SENIOR POLICY ANALYST

May 26, 2011

2

Our mission: The California Budget Project engages in independent fiscal

and policy analysis and public education with the goal of improving

public policies affecting the economic and social well-being of

low- and middle-income Californians.

3

The CBP’s data and policy analyses provide context for budget discussions

and make data more accessible.

Publications Budget analyses

– Same-day analyses of governors’ budget proposals

– Chartbook providing overview and context for the January budget proposal

– Side-by-side comparisons of budget proposals

– Impact analyses by county and by school and legislative district

4

Publications (continued) Focus on key issues

– Tax policy

– California’s economy

– Access to health care

– Human services

– School finance

– Unemployment Insurance

– Workforce development

Special reports

5

Other Activities Public education

– Annual public policy conference

– Presentations and legislative testimony

– Budget trainings

– Newsletter

– Blog

Technical assistance

– Resource for policymakers, constituency groups, and the media

6

7

Spending Solutions 40.6%

Assumed Increase in Federal Funding and Flexibility

28.1%

Revenue-Related Solutions 17.2%

Loans, Loan Extensions, Transfers, and Funding

Shifts 14.1%

How Was the 2010-11 Budget Balanced? (Dollars in Billions)

Total "Solutions" = $19.3 Billion Note: Includes Governor's vetoes.

Source: Legislative Analyst's Office

$7.8

$2.7

$5.4

$3.3

8

50.0%

23.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

AFDC

/Cal

WOR

Ks R

ecip

ient

s as

a P

erce

ntag

e of

Cal

iforn

ians

in P

over

ty

Californians in Poverty Are Much Less Likely To Receive Cash Assistance Than in the Mid-1990s

Source: Department of Social Services, US Census Bureau, and US Department of Health and Human Services

9

27.2%

24.3%

21.4%

19.5%

17.4% 16.0%

14.0% 12.9%

12.2% 11.8%

17.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Perc

enta

ge o

f Chi

ldre

n in

Fam

ilies

With

Inco

mes

Bel

ow

the

Fede

ral P

over

ty L

ine

Who

Wer

e Un

insu

red

More Than One Out of Six Low-Income Children in California Was Uninsured in 2008 and 2009

Note: US figure reflects 2009 data. State figures reflect the average of 2008 and 2009 data.

Source: Kaiser Family Foundation and US Census Bureau

10

How Do California's Schools Compare?

California Rank California US K-12 Per Pupil Spending (2010-11) 47 $8,908 $11,397

K-12 Spending as a Percentage of Personal Income (2009-10)

47 3.5% 4.2%

Number of K-12 Students Per Teacher (2010-11)

51 20.5 14.4

K-12 Per Pupil Spending, Adjusted for Regional Cost Differences (2007-08)

43 $8,852 $11,223

Percentage of K-12 Students in Districts With Adjusted Per Pupil Spending at or Above the US Average (2007-08)

20

33.5%

40.6%

Percentage of High School Students Who Graduate With a Diploma (2006-07)

42 62.7% 68.8%

Source: Education Week, National Education Association, and US Bureau of Economic Analysis

11

Estimated Reduction to 2011-12 K-12 District Funding by County

County Estimated Total Funding Cut County Estimated Total Funding Cut

Alameda $156,288,000 Imperial $26,399,000

Alpine $89,000 Inyo $2,055,000

Amador $3,386,000 Kern $125,096,000

Butte $23,276,000 Kings $20,609,000

Calaveras $4,572,000 Lake $6,774,000

Colusa $3,259,000 Lassen $3,794,000

Contra Costa $122,874,000 Los Angeles $1,187,410,000

Del Norte $3,092,000 Madera $21,646,000

El Dorado $20,757,000 Marin $21,919,000

Fresno $139,870,000 Mariposa $1,581,000

Glenn $4,198,000 Mendocino $9,265,000

Humboldt $13,272,000 Merced $40,453,000

Imperial $26,399,000 Monterey $51,318,000

Inyo $2,055,000 Napa $14,752,000 Source: CBP analysis of California Department of Education and Legislative Analyst's Office data

12

A Profile of Households Participating in the Food Stamp Program, Federal Fiscal Year 2007 California US Households With at Least One Child Under 18 Years Old 76.1% 51.3%

Households Headed by a Single Woman With Children 33.1% 31.1% Households With One or More Noncitizens 12.5% 5.7% Households With One or More Individuals Age 60 or Older 3.9% 17.9%

Households With One or More Individuals With Disabilities 0.7% 23.9%

Average Monthly Food Stamp Benefit $257 $212

Average Monthly Total Income $632 $691 Average Number of People in the Household Certified To Receive Food Stamp Benefits 2.5 2.2

Total Number of Households Participating in the FSP 817,000 11,563,000 Source: CBP analysis of US Department of Agriculture data

13

How Do Basic Family Budgets Compare?

Hourly Wage Annual Income

Basic Family Budget for a Single Adult $14.64 $30,444

Basic Family Budget for a Single Parent Family $30.88 $64,236

Basic Family Budget for a Two Parent Family with One Working Parent $25.98 $54,036

Basic Family Budget for a Two Parent Family with Two Working Parents $18.15 $75,492

2009 California Minimum Hourly Wage $8.00 $16,640

2009 Median Hourly Wage $19.01 $39,541

2009 Poverty Line for a Family of 3 $8.31 $17,285

2009 Poverty Line for a Family of 4 $10.46 $21,756 Source: Department of Industrial Relations, US Census Bureau, and CBP analysis of US Census Bureau data

14

1.6%3.8% 2.7%

6.6%

2.2%

12.9%

70.3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Less Than$1,000,000

$1,000,000 to$4,999,999

$5,000,000 to$9,999,999

$10,000,000 to$49,999,999

$50,000,000 to$99,999,999

$100,000,000 to$999,999,999

$1,000,000,000 orMore

Perc

enta

ge o

f Tot

al H

iring

and

Sal

es a

nd U

se Ta

x Cr

edits

, 200

8

End of Year Assets

Seventy Percent of Enterprise Zone Tax Credits Go to Corporations With Assets of $1 Billion or MoreLess Than Half of 1 Percent of Corporations Filing Tax Returns in California Have At Least $1 Billion in Assets

Note: Data exclude companies that file personal income tax returns.Source: Franchise Tax Board

15

-11.6%

-29.1%

-52.4%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Vocational Certificate Associate's Degree Transfer to a Four-Year Institution

Like

lihoo

d Th

at B

asic

Ski

lls S

tude

nts

Earn

ed a

Cre

dent

ial o

r Tra

nsfe

rred

Re

lativ

e to

the

Com

para

ble

Like

lihoo

d fo

r Col

lege

-Lev

el S

tude

nts

Basic Skills Students Were Much Less Likely Than College-Level Students To Earn an Associate's Degree or To Transfer to a Four-Year Institution

Source: CBP analysis of California Community Colleges Chancellor's Office data

16

Examples of the CBP’s use of data from the

Employment Development Department, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, and the

US Census Bureau

17

July 2007 15,213,600

September 2009 13,851,100

September 2010 13,847,900

March 2011 14,049,300

13,500,000

14,000,000

14,500,000

15,000,000

15,500,000

Seas

onal

ly A

djus

ted

Num

ber o

f Non

farm

Job

s

California Gained Approximately 200,000 Jobs Between September 2010 and March 2011

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July 2007 143,600

April 2011 1,025,000

0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

Num

ber o

f Job

less

Cal

iforn

ians

Une

mpl

oyed

for A

t Lea

st 2

7 W

eeks

More Than 1 Million Californians Have Been Looking for Work for At Least Six Months

Note: Data reflect 12-month averages ending in the month displayed.

Source: Employment Development Department

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4.8%

11.7% 9.2%

20.0%

5.9%

14.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Unem

ploy

men

t Rat

e The Unemployment Rate for California's Blacks Has Continued To Rise Since the Recession Ended

White Black Latino

Note: Data reflect 12-month averages ending in the month displayed. Source: Employment Development Department

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13.5

3.1

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Unemployed Job Openings

Seas

onal

ly A

djus

ted

Num

ber o

f Une

mpl

oyed

and

Jo

b Op

enin

gs N

atio

nwid

e, M

arch

201

1 (in

Mill

ions

) The Number of People Looking for Work Exceeds Available Jobs by More Than Four to One

21

-9.0%

-0.7%

20.5%

2.4%

6.0%

17.9%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

20th Percentile Median 80th Percentile

Perc

ent C

hang

e in

Hou

rly W

age,

197

9 to

201

0 (2

010

Dolla

rs)

The Gap Between Low-Wage and High-Wage Workers Widened, 1979 to 2010

California US

Source: CBP analysis of US Census Bureau data

22

50.0%

69.8% 69.2%

58.8%

59.5% 57.1%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Perc

enta

ge o

f Cal

iforn

ia W

omen

With

Job

s The Share of Unmarried Mothers With Jobs Dropped Substantially During the Recession

Unmarried Women With Children Married Women With Children

California implements welfare reform

Source: CBP analysis of US Census Bureau data

23

10.0%

11.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%19

7619

7719

7819

7919

8019

8119

8219

8319

8419

8519

8619

8719

8819

8919

9019

9119

9219

9319

9419

9519

9619

9719

9819

9920

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

1520

16

Unem

ploy

men

t Rat

e

California's Annual Jobless Rate Is Projected To Remain Above the Previous 1982 Peak Through 2012

Note: 2011 through 2016 are projected.

Source: Legislative Analyst's Office and US Bureau of Labor Statistics

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