The Booker Effect: The Sequel - AAPOR...The Booker Effect: The Sequel An Investigation of...

The Booker Effect: The Sequel

An Investigation of Race-of-Interviewer Effects in the2013 and 2014 New Jersey U.S. Senate Elections

David P. Redlawsk, DirectorAshley Koning, Asst. Director

Eagleton Center for Public Interest PollingRutgers, The State University of New Jersey

[email protected]@rutgers.edu

Eagleton Institute of Politics

Eagleton Institute of PoliticsThe Eagleton Centerfor Public Interest Polling

Timeline of a Possible Booker Effect?Part I: 2013 NJ Special U.S. Senate Election


October 16, 2013Cory Booker (D)

vs.Steve Lonegan (R)

June 4, 2013Gov. Chris Christie

schedules special election(August 13 primary)

June 3, 2013Sen. Frank Lautenberg

dies; U.S. senate seat inNJ becomes vacant

Rutgers-Eagleton Pre-election PollOctober 7 – 13, 2013


WithoutLeaners

(unweighted)

WithLeaners

(unweighted)

Reported(weighted)

ActualResult

Booker 54% 56% 58% 55% -3%Lonegan 31% 33% 36% 44% +8%Someone else 2% 2% (Likely

voters)Will not vote 2% 2% N=513Don’t know 11% 6% MOE=+/- 4.3


Why so far off in 2013? Some possibilities …

• Question Order

• Interviewer effects

Call CenterRace/Ethnicity

N Percentage

Asian 54 46.2%White 31 26.5%African-American 21 17.9%Hispanic 11 9.4%

Predicted Probability of Completing WhiteRespondent by Interviewer Race

(October 2013)


Race-of-Interviewer Effects on Vote for BookerOctober 2013

N=678 RVs for whom we have race/ethnicityWithout leaners

Predicted Probability of Vote for Booker

Race of Interviewer

White Black Asian Hisp.Booker 50.3% 60.1% 50.5% 65.2%

Lonegan 32.9% 26.4% 33.0% 27.3%

Other 1.3% 0.7% 3.5% 0%

Will not vote 2.7% 1.4% 3.2% 0%

Don’t know 12.8% 11.5% 9.8% 7.6%

149 148 315 66

Vote by Race of Interviewer(October 2013)


Part I: Oct. 2013 Special Election Initial ConclusionDoes it explain all of the error?No - small Booker under-estimate, large Lonegan underestimate.But if we substitute Lonegan vote for Booker vote, there is nointerviewer effect.

Is anything going on in terms of race of interviewer withBooker?Yes – after controlling for a wide range of other effects, “race ofinterviewer x respondent” has effects on likelihood of Booker vote.

The primary effect seems to be to reduce Booker vote among non-whites speaking with white interviewers.


Part II: 2014 NJ U.S. Senate Pre and Post Election

Respondent Interviewer Race Interviewer Race AccuracyRace Actual Perceived Accurate Inaccurate DK

White 76.8% 22.4% 23.9% 29.6% 18.3% 52.1%Black 8.5% 23.2% 7.2% 19.8% 26.4% 53.8%Hispanic 8.0% 13.5% 8.3% 19.7% 31.0% 49.3%Asian/Other 4.1% 40.8% 14.1% 27.1% 36.7% 36.2%Don’t Know 43.6%Refused 2.6% 2.8% Overall 23.7% 29.9% 46.4%

Key additional variable: Respondent’s perception of interviewer race(Thanks to Celinda Lake for this suggestion)

October 2014 Rutgers-Eagleton Pre-Election Poll


Pre-election Take 2, but Back to Square 1:Is It Recruitment?

Propensity of interviewer to talk to Whites Variance in Booker vote?


Pre-election Booker vs. Bell Vote:Perception of Interviewer Race is Everything

All R’sBlack White Hispanic Asian

Don’tKnow Total

InterviewerActual Race

Booker 43.2% 48.8% 45.2% 48.6% - 46.9%Bell 24.8% 24.8% 24.7% 19.5% 22.6%

Perceived RaceBooker 59.0% 48.8% 40.0% 51.5% 42.6% 46.3%

Bell 7.7% 24.0% 33.3% 18.2% 24.7% 23.2%


Pre-Election Model Predicting Vote for BookerBy Perceived Race of Interviewer

(All Respondents)

PerceivedInterviewer Race

Mean PredictedProbability

T-test vs. WhiteInterviewer

White (n=127) .515 (.343) - -Black (n=38) .605 (.314) 1.453 n.s.Hispanic (n=43) .372 (.324) -2.386 p<.05Asian (n=64) .515 (.344) .017 n.s.DK/Ref (n=224) .424 (.339) -2.396 p<.05

(Standard Deviation in parentheses)


Respondents by Race – A Different StoryR’s Race Perceived

Interviewer RacePredicted Prob of

Booker VoteT-test vs. White

InterviewerWhite

White (n=104) .464 (.343) - - Black (n=25) .640 (.331) 2.319 p<.05 Hispanic (n=31) .322 (.309) -2.067 p<.05

Asian (n=48) .479 (.350) -0.249 n.s.Non-White White (n=23) .742 (.240) - -

Black (n=13) .538 (.280) -2.307 p<.05 Hispanic (n=12) .500 (.340) -2.450 p<.05

Asian (n=16) .625 (.339) -1.264 n.s.


Pre-Election: White Respondents OnlyPredicted Probability of Vote for

Booker by Perceived Interviewer Race


Post-Election (December 2015): No EffectsPredicted Probability of Reported Vote for

Booker by Perceived Interviewer Race


Post Election: Ferguson & Staten Island Police Cases

We asked split samples about either the Ferguson killing of Michael Brownor the Staten Island killing of Eric Garner (both by police)

Question was whether the grand jury decisions to not indict were right orwrong

Given the racially-charged nature of the cases, could responseto these questions be subject to race of interviewer effects?

Ferguson Staten Island

Right decision 49% 26%Wrong decision 34% 58%


Post Election – Staten Island ModelPredicted Probability of Answering Decision was Wrong

by Perceived Interviewer Race


Post Election – Ferguson ModelPredicted Probability of Answering Decision was Wrong

by Perceived Interviewer Race


Summary2013: Results unexpectedly suggested no race-of-interviewereffects for white respondents – instead non-whites reducedplanned vote for Booker when talking to a white interviewer

2014: Additional question on perception of interviewer racePerception is everything; no effects of actual race of interviewerPre-election: Strong effects of perception in expected directionPost-election: No effects of perception in reported vote

But when we ask about a racially-charged issue, the effects return

TAKE-HOME: Perceptions of interviewer race can influencerespondent reports on planned voting for an African-Americancandidate, as well as on racially charged issues

Visit the Rutgers-Eagleton Poll Online

http://eagletonpoll.rutgers.edu for our website

Facebook at https://www.facebook.com/RutgersEagletonPollTwitter @EagletonPoll.


David P. Redlawsk, DirectorAshley Koning, Asst. Director

Eagleton Center for Public Interest PollingRutgers, The State University of New Jersey

[email protected]@rutgers.edu

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