The body in the bag
Transcript of The body in the bag
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DANIELLE DUFFEKLINDSEY SYKES
Law and Order:The Body in the Bag
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One Late Spring Morning…
Discovery of stuffed, well-worn, and heavily stained bag
Inside of bag unidentifiable victimAuthorities called, resulting in investigation
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RACE
Race of offender Race of victim
White Black OtherTOTAL
White 3,017 501 44 3,562
Black 226 2,864 8 3,098Other 47 26 122 195Unknown 33 21 2 56
TOTAL 3,323 3,412 176 6,911
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SEX
Sex of offender
Sex of victim
Male Female UnknownTOTAL
Male 4,417 499 71 4,987
Female 1,754 185 23 1,962
Unknown 49 7 19 75
TOTAL 6,220 691 113 7,024
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What Type of Probability to Use?
Empirical or Relative Frequency Probability The ratio of the number of times an event has
occurred to the total number of trials performed P(A) = the # of times A occurs / N
Multiplication Rule Describes the probability of one event (A) AND
another event (B)
P(A and B)= P(A)*P(B)
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Victim
Race: White: 3,562/6,911 = .5154 or 51.5% Black: 3,098/6,911 = .4483 or 44.8% Other: 195/6,911 = .0282 or 2.8% Unknown: 56/6,911 = .0081 or .81%
Sex Male: 4,987/7,024 = .7099 or 71% Female: 1,962/7,024 = .2793 or 27.9% Unknown: 75/7,024 = .0107 or 1.1%
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Victim Profile
What is your best prediction of the race and sex of the victim? Explain your reasoning.
White Male
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Offender
Race: White: 3,323/6,911 = .4808 or 48.1% Black: 3,412/6,911 = .4937 or 49.4% Other: 176/6,911 = .0254 or 2.5%
Sex Male: 6,220/7,024 = .8855 or 88.6% Female: 691/7,024 = .0983 or 9.8% Unknown: 113/7,024 = .0160 or 1.6%
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Offender Profile
What is your best prediction as to the race and sex of the offender? Explain your reasoning.
Black Male
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Joint Profile
How likely is it that the victim and the offender are of the same race? Same gender? Does this agree with your preliminary predictions above?
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Joint Calculation of Race
WV/WO: 3017/3562 * 3017/3323 = .7690 or 76.9%
WV/BO = .1244 or 12.4%
WV/OO = .2117 or 21.2%
BV/WO = .0049 or .49%BV/BO = .0612 or 6.1%BV/OO = .0033 or .33%
OV/WO = .0034 or .34%
OV/BO = .0018 or .18%
OV/OO = .0027 or .27%
UV/WO = .0058 or .58%
UV/BO = .0036 or .36%
UV/OO = .0066 or .66%
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Joint Calculation of Sex
MV/MO: 4417/4987 * 4417/6220 = .6289 or 62.9%
MV/FO = .6396 or 64%MV/UO = .5565 or 55.7%FV/MO = .2508 or 25.1%FV/FO = .2381 or 23.8%FV/UO = .1810 or 18.1%UV/MO = .0051 or .51%UV/FO= .0066 or .66%UV/UO= .1098 or 11%
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Joint Calculation Summary
Race: 76.9% Probability White Victim and White Offender
Sex: 64% Probability Male Victim and Female Offender
Does NOT agree with previous probability calculations
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Conclusion
We were told the victim was white female with blonde hair
Our data shows the victim being a white male
If you were in our situation, how would you conclude the victim profile?
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Profile for OFFENDER
Murder Charge on a BLACK MALE for killing a white male whose body was dumped in the river
If you have any information concerning this person please contact your local FBI office. Thank you.
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Thank you!
Any Questions?