The Black Sea: from the largest grain importer to the top ... · Source: Federal Custom Services of...

The Black Sea: from the largest grain importer to the top world exporter

Andrey SizovOlga Voskovtsova

SovEcon

Tel: +7 495 [email protected]://sizov.report

Moscow, 2020

SovEcon Profile

• SovEcon is the oldest Black Sea research firm focused ongrains and oilseeds markets. The company was established in1991.

• SovEcon’s clients include the majority of the principal tradingand farming companies, financial institutions, ag inputssuppliers, food companies, state and intergovernmentalinstitutions.

2

The Sizov Report on the Black Sea Grain Market

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3

5

Grain exports and imports, Russia and Ukraine, mln t

Source: Federal Custom Services of Russia and Ukraine, Sovecon, USDA

0

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198

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Export

Import

From planned economy to capitalism

6

Total grain production, mln t

Source: Rosstat, Ukrstat, USDA

7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Russia

Ukraine

8

Total grain production, mln t

0

50

100

150

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350

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450

500

0

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100

120

140

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Russia

Ukraine

USA (right axis)

Source: Rosstat, Ukrstat, USDA

9

Grain production by major crops in Russia, mln t

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Others

Corn

Barley

Wheat

Source: Rosstat

10

Wheat area and yield in Russia

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1

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0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Planted area, mln ha

Yield, t/ha (right axis)

Source: Rosstat

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Barley area and yield in Russia

Source: Rosstat

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0

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6

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12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



12

Corn area and yield in Russia

Source: Rosstat

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0

1

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4

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



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Grain production by major crops in Ukraine, mln t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Others

Corn

Barley

Wheat

Source: Ukrstat

14

Corn area and yield in Ukraine

Source: Ukrstat

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1

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9

0

1

2

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6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



15

Wheat area and yield in Ukraine

Source: Ukrstat

0

1

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3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



16

Barley area and yield in Ukraine

Source: Ukrstat

0

1

2

3

4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



17

Source: Rosstat

South

3.64

Center

3.87

Volga Valley

1.80 Siberia

1.68

Russian wheat yield in 2019 by major producing regions,

t/ha

18

Source: Rosstat

South

3.70

Center

3.76

Volga Valley

1.90 Siberia

1.76

Russian wheat yield in 2018 by major producing regions,

t/ha

19

Ukrainian wheat yield in 2018 by major producing regions,

t/ha

Source: Ukrstat

Odessa

3.73

Kharkov

3.37Vinnytsia

5.15

Zaporizhzhya

2.58

Dnepropetrovsk

3.00

Kherson

3.15

Nikolaev

3.12

Khmelnitsky

5.44

Kirovograd

3.62

20

Ukrainian corn yield in 2018 by major producing regions,

t/ha

Source: Ukrstat

Poltava

8.22

Chernigov

9.40

Vinnytsia

9.90

Cherkasy

9.24

Symy

8.90Kiev

9.72

Kirovograd

6.08

Khmelnitsky

10.05

sizov.report

Annual temperatures departure

from 1961-1990 average

Source: Institute of Global Climate and Ecology of Roshydromet and the Russian Academy of Sciences

22

Russia

World

https://sizov.report/

23

Area under winter and spring wheat in Russia, mln ha

Source: Rosstat, Sovecon

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

winter wheat spring wheat

24

Wheat yield, mt/ha

Source: Rosstat, Ukrstat, USDA, Sovecon

0

1

2

3

4

5

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Russia

Ukraine

USA

25

Corn yield, mt/ha

Source: Rosstat, Ukrstat, USDA, Sovecon

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Russia

Ukraine

USA

26

Domestic grain consumption, mln t

Source: Sovecon, Rosstat, Ukrstat

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Russia

Ukraine

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Exports of major grain crops (wheat, barley, corn), mln t

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Russia

Ukraine

Source: Federal Custom Services of Russia and Ukraine, USDA

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Exports by major grain crops, mln t

Russia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Corn

Barley

Wheat

Source: Federal Custom Service of Russia, Sovecon

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Exports by major grain crops, mln t

Ukraine

Source: Federal Custom Service of Russia, Sovecon, USDA

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Corn

Barley

Wheat

31

Wheat export by major destinations from Russia and

Ukraine in 2018/19, %

Source: Federal Custom Services of Russia and Ukraine, Sovecon

Egypt; 21

Turkey; 15

Bangladesh; 6

Nigeria; 4Yemen; 4

Vietnam; 3

Sudan; 3Indonesia; 3

Latvia; 3

Philippines; 3

Others; 36

Russia

Indonesia; 17

Egypt; 13

Philippines; 10

Bangladesh; 8

Morocco; 7

Tunisia; 6

Thailand; 5

South Korea; 5

Libya; 4

Israel; 3

Others; 22

Ukraine

32

Corn export by major destinations from Russia and Ukraine

in 2018/19, %

Source: Federal Custom Services of Russia and Ukraine, Sovecon

Iran; 62

Turkey; 9

Latvia; 4

Belarus; 3

South Korea; 3

Others; 18

Russia

Spain; 14

Netherlands; 14

China; 13

Egypt; 10Turkey; 8

Others; 42

Ukraine

33

Major wheat export destinations in 2018/19


CountriesRussia

CountriesUkraine

CountriesUSA

mln t % mln t % mln t %

Total 35.3 100.0 Total 15.5 100.0 Total 24.2 100.0

Egypt 7.4 20.9 Indonesia 2.6 16.6 Philippines 3.0 12.6

Turkey 5.2 14.8 Egypt 2.0 12.6 Mexico 3.0 12.5

Bangladesh 2.0 5.5 Philippines 1.6 10.1 Japan 2.7 11.1

Nigeria 1.4 3.9 Bangladesh 1.3 8.4 Nigeria 1.6 6.5

Yemen 1.2 3.5 Morocco 1.2 7.5 Indonesia 1.4 5.7

Vietnam 1.2 3.5 Tunisia 0.9 5.9 South Korea 1.4 5.6

Sudan 1.2 3.5 Thailand 0.8 5.3 Taiwan 1.2 4.8

Indonesia 1.0 2.8 South Korea 0.7 4.7 Egypt 0.8 3.4

Latvia 0.9 2.6 Libya 0.6 4.2 Thailand 0.7 3.1

Philippines 0.9 2.6 Israel 0.5 3.0 Iraq 0.6 2.4

Others 12.8 36.4 Others 3.4 21.8 Others 7.8 32.4

34

Major corn export destinations in 2018/19


CountriesUkraine

CountriesUSA

mln t % mln t %

Total 30.4 100.0 Total 49.2 100.0

Spain 4.2 13.9 Mexico 15.5 31.4

Netherlands 4.2 13.9 Japan 12.6 25.7

China 3.8 12.6 Colombia 4.7 9.5

Egypt 3.0 9.9 South Korea 3.7 7.5

Turkey 2.4 7.8 Peru 2.0 4.0

Germany 1.8 5.9 Taiwan 1.9 3.8

Italy 1.7 5.6 Guatemala 1.2 2.5

Israel 1.1 3.7 Saudi Arabia 0.9 1.9

United Kingdom 0.8 2.8 Costa Rica 0.9 1.8

Iran 0.8 2.6 Salvador 0.7 1.5

Portugal 0.8 2.5 Canada 0.7 1.4

Algeria 0.7 2.4 Dominican Republic 0.6 1.3

Belgium 0.7 2.4 Honduras 0.6 1.2

Ireland 0.6 2.1 Egypt 0.5 1.1

Libya 0.5 1.7 Panama 0.5 1.0

Tunisia 0.5 1.6 Nicaragua 0.3 0.6

Denmark 0.4 1.4 Jamaica 0.3 0.6

Lithuania 0.4 1.4 China 0.3 0.5

South Korea 0.3 1.1 Israel 0.2 0.3

Lebanon 0.3 1.1 Morocco 0.2 0.3

Others 1.1 3.7 Others 1.0 2.0

35

Top 10 Russian grain exporters in 2018/19, mln t

Source: SovEcon

Total 40.89 100%

1 TD RIF 7.03 17.2

2 Glencore 3.57 8.7

3 Aston 3.57 8.7

4 Cargill 2.36 5.8

5 Zerno-Trade 1.76 4.3

6 MiroGroup Resources 1.39 3.4

7 Louis Dreyfus 1.19 2.9

8 Yug Rusi 1.07 2.6

9 Steppe Agroholding 1.06 2.6

10 Artis-Agro Export 0.90 2.2

Others 17.00 41.6

36

Top 10 Ukrainian grain exporters in 2018/19, mln t

Source: Stark Shipping

Total 49.74 100%

1 Kernel 6.07 12.2

2 Nibulon 5.11 10.3

3 Cofco Agri 4.62 9.3

4 Cargill 3.97 8.0

5 ADM 3.96 8.0

6 Bunge 3.29 6.6

7 Louis Dreyfus 3.15 6.3

8 Glencore 2.64 5.3

9 AP Group 2.14 4.3

10 Sierentz 2.07 4.2

Others 12.72 25.6

37

Share of multinationals and local traders

in Russian grain exports, %

Source: Sovecon

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19

Russian companies

Multinationals

38

Major Ukrainian ports

Major Russian ports

Main Export terminals

39

Source: Chartsbin

40

Main Black Sea and Azov sea ports

41

Transshipment of grain near port Kavkaz

Source: volgaship.com

42

Terminal capacity and grain exports, mln t

Ukraine

Source: Administration of Seaports of Ukraine, Federal Custom Service, Sovecon

0

10

20

30

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60

70

80

90

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Terminal capacity

Grain exports

43

Terminal capacity and grain exports, mln t

Russia

Source: Morcenter, Federal Custom Service, Sovecon

0

10

20

30

40

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60

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Terminal capacity

Grain exports

44

Transshipment fees in deep sea ports, $/mt

Source: Open sources, Sovecon

0

5

10

15

20

25

2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20

Russia

Ukraine

45

World wheat prices, FOB, $/mt

Source: IGC, Sovecon

150

170

190

210

230

250

270

290

Ju

l-1

4

Sep

-14

Nov-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Sep

-16

Nov-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ma

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Sep

-17

Nov-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Sep

-18

No

v-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Russia Black Sea, 12.5%

France Rouen, 11%

Ukraine Black Sea, 11.5%

USA SRW, Gulf

46

World corn prices, FOB, $/mt

Source: IGC, Sovecon

150

160

170

180

190

200

210

Ju

l-1

4

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Ja

n-1

5

Ma

r-15

Ma

y-1

5

Ju

l-1

5

Sep

-15

Nov-1

5

Ja

n-1

6

Ma

r-16

Ma

y-1

6

Ju

l-1

6

Sep

-16

Nov-1

6

Ja

n-1

7

Ma

r-17

Ma

y-1

7

Ju

l-1

7

Sep

-17

Nov-1

7

Ja

n-1

8

Ma

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Ju

l-1

8

Sep

-18

Nov-1

8

Ja

n-1

9

Ma

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Ju

l-1

9

Sep

-19

Nov-1

9

Ja

n-2

0

Ukraine Black Sea

USA Gulf

47

Russia and Ukraine grain exports are expected to grow

further, by 5-7% annually on average, mln t

Source: Rosstat, Ukrstat, Sovecon

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Russia

Ukraine

48

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Fact

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Many long-term projections looks too conservative

USDA’s long term Russian wheat export forecast

and actual exports, MMT

52

Area under winter wheat, mln ha

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2001 2002 20032004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20122013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Russia

Ukraine


54

Wheat production 2020 first estimates, mln t


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Russia

Ukraine

The Sizov Report on the Black Sea Grain Market

Everything you need to know about the Black Sea

Get a free trial

at sizov.report

55

Andrey Sizov

[email protected]

tel: +7 495 779 1402

http://sizov.report

Twitter: http://twitter.com/sizov_andre

Linkedin: http://www.linkedin.com/pub/andrey-sizov-jr/16/707/278

56

The Black Sea: from the largest grain importer to the top ... · Source: Federal Custom Services of...

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