The Biodemography of Human Longevity:

by James W. Vaupel

The Future of Science IX: Secrets of Longevity,

Venice, 21 September 2013

2/29

The Frontier of Survival: Three Views

View 1: The Fixed Frontier of Survival Limited lifespans

Aristotle 350 BC, James Fries NEJM 1980

View 2: Breaking through the Frontier of Survival

Secrets of longevity

Luigi Cornaro The Art of Living Long 1558

View 3: The Advancing Frontier of Survival: Unrecognized progress

Vaupel, Manton, Stallard Demography 1979

Discovery of Postponement of Senescence Vaupel and Lundstroem 1994

X5

or

X1

0

Year

Year

q(x

)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

00

.05

0.1

00

.15

0.2

00

.25

0.3

00

.35

0.4

0

Age 80Age 85Age 90Age 95

q(x), Japan, Women

Source: Kannisto-Thatcher Database

Year

q(x

)

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.0

00

.05

0.1

00

.15

0.2

00

.25

0.3

00

.35

0.4

0

q(x), Japan, Men

Source: Kannisto-Thatcher Database

q(x), Japan, Women q(x), Japan, Men

The decline in chances of death in Japan at ages 80, 85, 90 and 95

The explosion of centenarians

1861 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000

0

2 0

0

4 0

0

6 0

0

8 0

0

1 0

0 0

1 2 0

0

1 4

0 0

1

6 0 0

1

8 0 0

Num

ber

of

fem

ale

s a

ged 1

00+

or

105+

Year

Swedes 100+

Japanese 105+

7/33

Mechanisms of Human Longevity

Supplemental discoveries

1. The frontier of survival is advancing because senescence

(the increase of mortality with age) is being postponed.

The major discovery— The advancing frontier of survival.

Age

The Postponement of Senescence: Evidence from Sweden

Data Source: Calculations based on Human Mortality Database by Elisabetta Barbi and Giancarlo Camarda (unpublished)

30 40 50 60 70 80 90

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

1950

1980

2010

57 68 63

Swedish Females

Age 30-90

Ris

k o

f D

eath

12/33

Mechanisms of Human Longevity

Supplemental discoveries

1. The frontier of survival is advancing because senescence is

being postponed.

2. The advancing frontier of survival is part of the larger,

long-term Life Expectancy Revolution.

The major discovery— The advancing frontier of survival.

3 0

4 0

5 0

6 0

7 0

8 0

9 0

1 5 5 0 1 6 0 0 1 6 5 0 1 7 0 0 1 7 5 0 1 8 0 0 1 8 5 0 1 9 0 0 1 9 5 0 2 0 0 0 2 0 5 0

Life

exp

ecta

ncy in

ye

ars

The Revolution in Human Life Expectancy Oeppen & Vaupel, Science 2002

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1550 1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050

Netherlands

Sweden

Iceland

Japan

New Zealand

Norway

EnglandEngland

Norway

New Zealand

Iceland

Netherlands

Sweden

Japan

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Sweden

Australia

Netherlands

Switzerland

Iceland

New Zealand

Norway

The Linear Rise of Best-Practice Life Expectancy

Japan

Germany

The Netherlands

France

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 1840

Year

Life e

xpecta

ncy in y

ears

Year

R e

m a

i n i n

g l i f

e e

x p

e c

t a n

c y a

t a

g e

6 5

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000

1 0

1

2

1 4

1

6

1 8

2

0

2 2

Sweden

Denmark

Norway

Switzerland

New Zealand

Netherlands

Japan

Germany

The rise in remaining life expectancy at age 65

Age

group

1850-

1900

1900-

1925

1925-

1950

1950-

1975

1975-

1990

1990-

2007

0-14 62 55 31 30 11 6

15-49 29 32 38 18 6 5

50-64 5 9 19 16 24 11

65-79 3 4 13 28 41 37

80+ 0 0 0 8 18 42

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Age-Specific Contributions to the Increase of Life Expectancy among Women 1850 to 2007

55 23 15.4 12.2 60.4 73.2 Russia

36 16 12.9 10.8 68.7 77.2 Hungary

21 13 12.7 11.3 75.2 80.4 USA

14 10 10.9 9.9 77.5 81.7

En&WaleEE

Eng&Wales

17 9 10.7 9.1 77.0 82.2 Germany

14 7 10.3 9.0 78.2 83.7 Italy

13 7 10.2 9.1 79.3 84.1 Switzerland

Female Male Female

Country Life Expectancy

Life Expectancy and Life Disparity

Vaupel, Zhang, van Raalte BMJ Open 2011

Life Disparity

Probability of death

before age 65

(in percent)

Male Female Male

Life Expectancy vs. Life Disparity

Determinants of Longevity

• Average lifespan in a population

• Biomedical knowledge, health care system, standard

of living, education, healthy behavior, environment

• Variation in lifespans among individuals

• Healthy behavior: listen to your mother

• 25% genetics, 10% childhood, 65% adult life

McGue, Vaupel, Holm & Harvald, J. Gerontology A 1993

The Life Expectancy Revolution: Why?

Money?

Medicine?

It’s never too late Vaupel, Carey, Christensen, Science 2003

Healthy Unhealthy

Dead

Healthy Unhealthy

Dead

Three states of health

Life expectancy without and with long-term disability at age 75 in Denmark

Life expectancy without and with long-term disability at age 75 in Denmark

5% 16.36 15.64 -15% 0.99 1.17 USA

-2% 14.67 14.97 7% 1.19 1.11 UK

-14% 11.97 13.84 32% 1.20 0.91 Netherlands

-8% 12.05 13.14 16% 1.86 1.60 Italy

-9% 11.35 12.45 21% 1.69 1.40 France

-6% 14.13 14.96 11% 1.12 1.01 Denmark

-11% 11.16 12.55 30% 1.47 1.13 Germany

Change 2025 2009 Change 2025 2009

Country

H, hours worked per week per capita R, nonworkers per worker

How many of us work? How much do we work? Vaupel & Loichinger, Science 2006

• Rely on extrapolation using time-series

methods

• Be very cautious about using expert

judgments about the future

Forecasting Life Expectancy

1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 204045

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

Life

-exp

ect

an

cy in

ye

ars

Best practice

Estimate of Maximum

Japan extrapolation

un2000f

norway

nz

iceland

sweden

e0maxf

ffirstb

japan

neth

switz

austral

y

Dublin

Dublin & Lotka Dublin

Bourgeois-Pichat

Bourgeois-Pichat, UN Siegel

World Bank, UN

Fries, Olshansky et al.,

World Bank

UN Olshansky et al.

Coale

UN, Frejka

UN

Year

Coale & Guo

The Sorry Saga of Looming Limits to Life Expectancy Oeppen and Vaupel Science 2002

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

104.5

119.8

89.1 96.8

108.9

98.1

time series

forecast mean

95% approx.conf. interval

time series

forecast mean

95% approx.conf. interval

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

Forecasting female record life expectancy (up to 2100)

using a random walk with drift

Directly Forecasting Record Life Expectancy

The Future Will Be Different from the Past

• In next decade or two, progress against cancer

and dementia and in developing genotype-specific

therapies

• Then progress in regenerating and eventually

rejuvenating tissues and organs

• Accompanied by progress in

replacing deleterious genes

• Aided by nanotechnologies (nanobots)

• Perhaps in a decade or two, probably later, progress

in slowing the rate of aging (as opposed to further

postponing aging).

25/29

USA

Italy

Japan

France

Year of Birth:

103 101 100

104 103 101

107 106 104

104 103 101

2010 2005 2000

Data are ages in years. Baseline data were obtained from the Human Mortality

Database and refer to the total population of the respective countries.

Oldest Age at which at least 50% of a Birth Cohort is Still Alive Christensen, Doblhammer, Rau & Vaupel Lancet 2009, Updated by Rau 2013

Great Britain 104 102 101

Germany 102 100 99

Summary: Prospects for the 21st Century

Live longer and longer

Live healthier at any specific age

Postpone disability to later ages

Geriatic medicine

Work more years but

fewer hours per year

www.demogr.mpg.de