The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002
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Transcript of The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002
![Page 1: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
The Benefit of DoubtManuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
QITL, 4 Oct 2002
look at the slides
![Page 2: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Data from Moira
2-test: p 0 (df=13)(test of idependence = same proportions)
Moira 3;11 4;01 4;03 4;05 4;07 4;09 4;11 5;01 5;03 5;05 5;07 5;09 5;11 6;01
mvt 50 41 77 68 71 94 68 19 16 6 5 12 11 1
no mvt 1 1 1 2 3 3 15 20 125 75 30 42 98 37
http://www.r-project.org/
![Page 3: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Moira: data by month
![Page 4: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Moira: data by month (proportions)
transition phase
![Page 5: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Moira: early period vs. late period
Moira 3;11 4;01 4;03 4;05 4;07 4;09 4;11 5;01 5;03 5;05 5;07 5;09 5;11 6;01
mvt 50 41 77 68 71 94 68 19 16 6 5 12 11 1
no mvt 1 1 1 2 3 3 15 20 125 75 30 42 98 37
Moira Early Late
mvt 401 51
no mvt 11 407
![Page 6: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Moira: early period vs. late period
Moira Early Late
mvt 401 51
no mvt 11 407
2-test: p 0 (df=1)• estimates for proportion q of movement from exact binomial test (95% conf.):
– Early: q 97.3% (95.3% – 98.7%)– Late: q 11.1% ( 8.4% – 14.4%)
![Page 7: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Moira: estimates for early and late period
early period: q 97.3%
late period: q 11.1%
![Page 8: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Testing the statistical model
• assumptions – the child chooses randomly between clauses
with verb movement and no movement– average proportion of clauses with movement
is constant within each period• model
– number of clauses with mvt in each month is a binomially distributed random variable (success prob. q = MLE for proportion of mvt)
![Page 9: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Testing the statistical model
• test procedure – null hypothesis: variation within each period can
be explained by chance– equivalent to independence of rows and
columns in the contingency table (by month)– perform 2 test on early and late period
• results– early period: p 0.696 acceptable– late period: p 0.242 acceptable
![Page 10: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
A closer look at the transition phase
early period: q 97.3%
late period: q 11.1%
transition phase
![Page 11: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
A closer look at the transition phase
• compare each month to conf. intervals for proportion q of mvt in early and late period
Moira 4;11 5;00 5;01 5;02
mvt 52 16 11 8
no mvt 6 9 11 9
![Page 12: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
A closer look at the transition phase
• compare each month to conf. intervals for proportion q of mvt in early and late period
• binomial test reports significant difference for each month (4;11 might be early period) transition phase
Moira 4;11 5;00 5;01 5;02
mvt 52 16 11 8
no mvt 6 9 11 9
![Page 13: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Eliza: data by month
![Page 14: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Eliza: data by month (proportions)
transition phase ??
![Page 15: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Eliza: early period vs. late period
Eliza 3;11 4;01 4;03 4;05 4;07 4;09 4;11 5;01 5;03 5;05 5;07 5;09 5;11 6;01
mvt 8 7 4 7 2 5 15 9 8 2 2 0 4 0
no mvt 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 10 2 1 4 11 0
Eliza Early Late
mvt 33 16
no mvt 5 28
![Page 16: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Eliza: early period vs. late period
Eliza Early Late
mvt 33 16
no mvt 5 28
2-test: p 0.00001 (df=1)• estimates for proportion q of movement from exact binomial test (95% conf.):
– Early: q 86.8% (71.9% – 95.6%)– Late: q 36.4% (22.4% – 52.2%)
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© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Testing the statistical model
• small data problem – not enough data for asymptotic test
(normal approximation in 2 test is incorrect)– use Fisher's exact test instead– or Monte Carlo simulation (based on 2 test)
• results– early period: p 0.109 acceptable– late period: p 0.289 acceptable
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© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Eliza: estimates for early and late period
early period: q 86.8%
late period: q 36.4%
transition phase ??
![Page 19: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
A closer look at the transition phase
Eliza 4;11 5;00 5;01 5;02
mvt 6 9 6 3
no mvt 0 0 1 0
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© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
A closer look at the transition phase
• binomial test:all four months could belong to early period
Eliza 4;11 5;00 5;01 5;02
mvt 6 9 6 3
no mvt 0 0 1 0
![Page 21: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
A closer look at the transition phase
• binomial test:all four months could belong to early period
• 5;02 might also belong to late period(even though there is always verb mvt!)
Eliza 4;11 5;00 5;01 5;02
mvt 6 9 6 3
no mvt 0 0 1 0
![Page 22: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Wait a second ...
We've had a very close look at the evidence for verb movement ...
... but we have ignored all ambiguous sentences!
![Page 23: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Ambiguous data
• so far, we have ignored ambiguous data• this may have distorted the results!
![Page 24: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Ambiguous data
• so far, we have ignored ambiguous data• this may have distorted the results!
type A type B
ambiguousunambiguouslytype A
unambiguouslytype B
![Page 25: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Ambiguous data
• so far, we have ignored ambiguous data• this may have distorted the results!
type A type B
ambiguousunambiguouslytype A
unambiguouslytype B
![Page 26: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Child data: non-target consistent
1. % wenn die fahret so schnell(E:5;02)
when these drive so fast2. a. % dass das isch de Uhu (E:5;01)
that this is the owlb. % dass er isch es eis (M:4;08)
that he is a one3. a. % öb's hät am Salot Lüüs (M:4;02)
if there has on-the salad greenflyb. % öb ich find nomel öppis (E:4;10)
if I find again something
![Page 27: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Child data: ambiguous
1. wenn ich mues lache (E:5;04)when I must laugh
2. dass-mer cha t'Röschti ufsteche(M:4;11) that-one can the rösti up-pick
3. öb er chämt dete z'Mittag ässe(M:4;06)
if he could there to-lunch eat4. wenn ich verlüre (M:4;09)
when I lose
![Page 28: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Moira: data by month (incl. ambiguous)
![Page 29: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Moira: data by month (proportions)
transition phase
![Page 30: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Moira: early period vs. late period
Moira 3;11 4;01 4;03 4;05 4;07 4;09 4;11 5;01 5;03 5;05 5;07 5;09 5;11 6;01
mvt 50 41 77 68 71 94 68 19 16 6 5 12 11 1
amb 0 1 1 15 26 26 20 13 34 28 16 20 31 10
no mvt 1 1 1 2 3 3 15 20 125 75 30 42 98 37
Moira Early Late
mvt 401 51amb 69 139
no mvt 11 407
![Page 31: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Moira: for or against our hypothesis?
in favour of new theory(cheating)
against new theory(conservative)
![Page 32: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Moira: for or against our hypothesis?
in favour of new theory(cheating)
against new theory(conservative)
early period: q 97.7%
late period: q 8.5%
early period: q 83.4%
late period: q 31.8%
![Page 33: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Eliza: data by month (incl. ambiguous)
![Page 34: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Eliza: data by month (proportions)
transition phase ???
![Page 35: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Eliza: early period vs. late period
Eliza 3;11 4;01 4;03 4;05 4;07 4;09 4;11 5;01 5;03 5;05 5;07 5;09 5;11 6;01
mvt 8 7 4 7 2 5 15 9 8 2 2 0 4 0
amb 1 0 0 0 0 3 4 1 8 3 7 4 9 0
no mvt 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 10 2 1 4 11 0
Eliza Early Late
mvt 33 16amb 4 31
no mvt 5 28
![Page 36: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Eliza: for or against our hypothesis?
in favour of new theory(cheating)
against new theory(conservative)
![Page 37: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
Eliza: for or against our hypothesis?
in favour of new theory(cheating)
against new theory(conservative)
early period: q 88.1%
late period: q 21.3%
early period: q 78.6%
late period: q 62.7%
![Page 38: The Benefit of Doubt Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert QITL, 4 Oct 2002](https://reader035.fdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062718/56812bbb550346895d8ffec2/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
© 2002 Manuela Schönenberger & Stefan Evert
References