How Birchbox Transformed Its Operations With Mathematical ...
The beauty of data capturing for BirchBox - … beauty of data capturing for BirchBox ... Sephora 3....
Transcript of The beauty of data capturing for BirchBox - … beauty of data capturing for BirchBox ... Sephora 3....
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The beauty of data capturing for BirchBoxPRESENT ERS LUND CONSULT ING:
T I M OT HY L I L JEBR UN N , JESPER SUN DST ROM , K A I SA VA I N O, I R I S POL I T IEK
PR ESEN T ING TO: M RS . BA R N A & M RS. BEAUCHAM P
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How can BirchBox establish a competitive advantage to reach it’s growth aspirations?
YOUR MAIN CHALLENGE
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Increase amount of subscribers
Securing profitability
Adding a lucrative revenue stream
Imagine this future for Birchbox…
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Adjusting business model by capitalizing on customer data for the beauty industry
RECOMMENDATION
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Situation
Analysis of the opportunity
Recommendation
Implementation
Finance
Risks
Conclusion
Today’s agenda
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Situation – Birchbox is facing a lot of different challenges but the business model stands out
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
The business model
Labor intense/not automated
Competitors (Clones)
Drop of subscribers
Profitability
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Situation – The greatest revenue stream comes from unprofitable areas
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Where does the revenue come from?
Subscription76%
Full size products20%
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Situation – The subscription based business model does not turn profitable easily
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
BirchBox BirchBox
0. Sending 2. Deliver
BirchBox
Customer
BirchBox
Amazon or Sephora
3. Unbox
4. Buy full size
Process owed by BirchboxProcess owed by another partyProcess owed by the customer
$Producers
1. Packing
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Situation
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Experts: “The subscription retail model might be unsustainable”
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Competition
ThreatsStakeholders
Industry
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Analysis – all competitions have strong positions
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Amazon• Superior logistics• Huge customer base
GloscyBox• Deep pockets• High end profile scale
Ipsy• Strong marketing• Strong growth
Sephora• Top of mind• Big product range
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Red oceanBlue
ocean
Need:• Competitive
advantage• New market
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Internal rivalry
Threat of entry
Buyer power
Threat of substitutes
Supplier power
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Internal rivalry
Threat of entry
Buyer power
Threat of substitutes
Supplier power
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Beauty producers Birchbox Consumer
The two main stakeholders:
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Beauty producers Birchbox Consumer
The two main stakeholders:
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Complexity of industry No. of brands Brand loyalty Importance of data
Trends: in the beauty industry:
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Passive
Surprise, testers, points, NEW PRODUCTS
Not personalized
Convenience, big products
Buy somewhere else
Customers
1
2
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Higher profitability
Trim costs
Not sustainable for growth
Increase revenue
Higher prices
Hard because of transparency
Larger volumes
Hard because of lack of comp.
advantage
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
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Analysis
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
“Understanding buying behavior and preferences of customers is the Holy Grail”
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Recommendation
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
How can BirchBox establish a competitive advantage to reach it’s growth aspirations?
YOUR MAIN CHALLENGE
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Recommendation – Three viable alternatives moving forward
Automate packing process to
become less labour intensive
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
1
Adjusting the business model by
capitalizing on customer data for
the beauty industry
2
Focus on the male segment with the current business
model
3
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Recommendation – Four important criteria evaluating the alternatives
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Growth potential1
Profitability2
Scalability3
Investor attraction4
Sustainability5
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Recommendation – The second alternative is the superior choice
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Automate Business model Male
Growth
Profitability
Scalability
Investor
2 3 1
1 2 3
2 3 1
1 3 2
1 3 2
SUM: 7 SUM: 14 SUM: 9
Sustainability
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Recommendation
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
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Implementation – Refocusing the key revenue model of Birchbox
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
BirchBox BirchBox
0. Sending 2. Deliver
BirchBox
BirchBox
Amazon or Sephora
3. Unbox
4. Buy full size
$Producers
1. Packing
Process owed by BirchboxProcess owed by another partyProcess owed by the customer
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Implementation – Refocusing the key revenue model of Birchbox
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
BirchBox BirchBox
0. Sending 2. Deliver
BirchBox
Customer3. Unbox4. Review
$
Producers
1. Packing
DATAProcess owed by BirchboxProcess owed by another partyProcess owed by the customer
Full size products
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Implementation – Creating value in a hybrid business model
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Beauty innovative brandsFor whomPassive men and woman who like to
come in touch with new products
Data salesIn the market of Discovery retailing
High quality customer insight from over customersPromising
3Certainty, inspiration and a continent buying process
• Data reports, • number of reviews,
• social media engagementProven by
• Monthly surprise box• Personalization efforts
• New pre-release products• Growing subscription rate
B2b market B2c market
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Implementation – Establishing a unique market position
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
“The beautify of the concept is capitalizing on a true discover and
surprise by experiencing new products first”
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Implementation – Leveraging on the true customer desire, surprise
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Build Optimize Communicate
Adjusting business model by capitalizing on customer data for the beauty industr
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Implementation – Implement business model changes
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Build Optimize Communicate
Establishing a MVP by negotiating with brands
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Implementation – Build market research know-how and software
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Negotiate with brand partners
Set up data collecting
system
Customize data collection
tools
Starting with raw data as MVP, working towards market insights
• Hire data architect• Hire data analysis
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Implementation – Identifying operational bottlenecks and improve
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Build Optimize Communicate
Standardize logistic operations by creating 5 customer profiles
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Implementation
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Develop & redefine
Pilot in the US market with selected brands
Optimize operations
Standardized product offering
Improving packaging efficacy
Keeping monthly dispatch
Adjust product lines
Close retail location Cut out private label 5 customer profile
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Implementation – Allowing stakeholders to see the beauty of the concept
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Build Optimize Communicate
Innovate and attract stakeholders in the new business venture
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Implementation – Engaging all stakeholders
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Externally
• Awarding review loyalty points
• Experiencing pre-launch product testing
• Social media campaign
• Full disclosure on data sharing
Tackling the privacy issue head on: full disclosure
Internally
• Enter a new business
• Same valuable proposition b2c
• Commutating b2b add on
• Expressing market potential
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Implementation – Double revenues by 2020
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
2017 2018 2019 2020
Negotiate with brands
Close retail & private label
Adjust product offering
Set up data collection
Standardize operations
Change loyalty program
Refining data collection
Pilot USA
Commutation
Provisioning one-off
operational costs of 1-2 million USD
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Financials
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Revenues growing 2x by 2020:
- Assuming ca 10% subscription base growth annually
- Pricing models unchanged- Cutting out physical
stores- Introducing data sales to
partners (ca 30% of revenues)
25 25 28 33 36 40
95 88 93 102 112 1235 2 0
00
059
6471
78
125 115
179199
219241
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Revenue forecast mln USD
Full/size Subscription based Physical stores
Data sales Revenues total
1.3 mlnsubscribers
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Financials
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Profitability (provisional) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Full size sales 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Subscription sales -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Physical stores 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Data sales 50% 60% 60% 60%
Gross margin % 1.9% 18.7% 23.0% 23.5% 23.5%
CoS 2.2 33.5 45.8 51.5 56.7
S&A and general costs 5.0 15.6 21.9 18.7 20.5
EBITDA 0 -3 18 24 33 36
EBITDA 0% -2% 10% 12% 15% 15%
Profitability can be increased through:
1. Cutting private label2. Cutting physical stores3. Reducing variety of boxes4. Data sales carry high margin
Targeting EBITDA % in range of 12-15%
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Financials
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
What about investment costs?
With 15% EBITDA allowing ca 10 mlnextra in 2018 on contingency costs and one-off OPEX and CAPEX items
What about funding?
87 mln equity raised so far
Profitability is being secured
Secure short term financing, refinance venture debt
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Risks – There are risks with various impact but they can all be mitigated
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
Risk
Cannibalize
Negotiation
Privacy
Impact
Low
High
Mod
Mitigation
Focus on key customers
Add on
Opt-in & Transparency
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Conclusion – Executive summary summarizing the presentation
Situation Analysis Recommendation Implementation Financials Risks Conclusion
The objectives
Growing customer base Becoming profitable
The Recommendation
Adjusting business model by capitalizing on customer data for the beauty industr
The Challenge
How can BirchBox establish a competitive advantage to reach it’s growth aspirations?
The situation
Unsustainable business model
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Imagine this future for Birchbox…
Increase amount of subscribers
Securing profitability
Adding a lucrative revenue stream
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mln USD 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Total 90000 95220 100809 106326 111851 117668 123791
Online 7200 8280 9522 10474 11207 11992 12831
Physical retail 82800 86940 91287 95851 100644 105676 110960
% online 8% 9% 9% 10% 10% 10% 10%
% physical retail 92% 91% 91% 90% 90% 90% 90%
Growth total 5.8% 5.9% 5.5% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2%
Online 15.0% 15.0% 10.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
Physical retail 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Birchbox targeting % of online sales 1.5% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3%
Back - up Market size projections
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2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Subscription base growth -7% 5% 10% 10% 10%
revenue per subscriber USD 95 95 95 95 95 95
Full/size % of subscriptions 26% 28% 30% 32% 32% 32%
Price per review sold USD 2 2 2 2 2
# of data reviews mln per year 27.9 29.3 32.2 35.4 39.0
Products reviewed yearly 60 60 60 60 60
Completion rate 50% 50% 50% 50% 50%
% of revenues
Full/size 20% 22% 16% 16% 16% 16%
Subscription based 76% 77% 52% 51% 51% 51%
Physical stores 4% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Data sales 0% 0% 33% 32% 32% 32%
Back – Birchbox revenue assumptions
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2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
# of subsribers mln 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3
Full/size 25 25 28 33 36 40
Subscription based 95 88 93 102 112 123
Physical stores 5 2 0 0 0 0
Data sales 59 64 71 78
Revenues total 125 115 179 199 219 241
Gross margin % (provisional) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Full size sales 25% 25% 25% 25% 25%
Subscription sales -5% -3% -1% 0% 0%
Physical stores 20% 20% 20% 20% 20%
Data sales 50% 60% 60% 60%
Gross margin % 1.9% 18.7% 23.0% 23.5% 23.5%
CoS 2.2 33.5 45.8 51.5 56.7
S&A and general costs 5.0 15.6 21.9 18.7 20.5
EBITDA -3 18 24 33 36
EBITDA -2% 10% 12% 15% 15%
Back – Birchbox revenue forecast