1

The Bear Market Trigger: The Secret Signal

That Has Called Every Crisis in the Last 20 years

©2020·PhoenixCapitalResearch,PhoenixCapitalManagementInc.AllRightsReserved.Protectedbycopyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This newsletter may only be usedpursuanttothesubscriptionagreementandanyreproduction,copying,orredistribution(electronicorotherwise, including on theworld wideweb), inwhole or in part, is strictly prohibited without theexpresswrittenpermissionofPhoenixCapitalManagementInc.·AllRightsReserved.

Disclaimer:Theinformationcontainedonthisreportisformarketingpurposesonly.Nothingcontainedinthisreportisintendedtobe,norshall itbeconstruedas,investmentadvicebyPhoenixCapitalResearchoranyofitsaffiliates,norisittoberelieduponinmakinganyinvestmentorotherdecision.Neithertheinformationnoranyopinionexpressedonthisreportconstitutesandoffertobuy or sell any security or instrument or participate in any particular trading strategy. The information on the report is not acompletedescriptionofthesecurities,marketsordevelopmentsdiscussed.Informationandopinionsregardingindividualsecuritiesdonotmeanthatasecurityisrecommendedorsuitableforaparticularinvestor.Priortomakinganyinvestmentdecision,youareadvised to consult with your broker, investment advisor or other appropriate tax or financial professional to determine thesuitabilityofanyinvestment.OpinionsandestimatesexpressedonthisreportconstitutePhoenixCapitalResearch'sjudgmentasofthedateappearingon the opinion orestimate andaresubject tochangewithout notice. This informationmay not reflect eventsoccurringafterthedateortimeofpublication.PhoenixCapitalResearchisnotobligatedtocontinuetoofferinformationoropinionsregardinganysecurity,instrumentorservice.Informationhasbeenobtainedfromsourcesconsideredreliable,butitsaccuracyandcompletenessarenotguaranteed.PhoenixCapitalResearchanditsofficers,directors,employees,agentsand/oraffiliatesmayhaveexecuted,ormayinthefutureexecute,transactionsinanyofthesecuritiesorderivativesofanysecuritiesdiscussedonthisreport.Pastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformanceandisnoguaranteeoffutureresults.SecuritiesproductsarenotFDIC insured,arenotguaranteedbyanybankandinvolve investmentrisk, includingpossiblelossofentirevalue.PhoenixCapitalResearch, Phoenix Capital Management, Inc. and Graham Summers shall not be responsible or have any liability for investmentdecisionsbasedupon,or theresultsobtained from, theinformationprovided.PhoenixCapitalResearch isnot responsible for thecontent of other websites to which this report may be linked and reserves the right to remove such links. Phoenix CapitalManagement, Inc.and thePhoenixCapitalResearchLogoare registered trademarksofPhoenixCapitalResearch.PhoenixCapitalManagement,Inc.-POBOX2912,Alexandria,VA22301

3

1

Inthisreport,I’mgoingtotellyouaboutmyproprietaryBearMarketsignal…ThissignalgoesoffVERYrarely…butwhenitdoes,ithasa100%accuracyrate.Putanotherway,whenyouseethissignalregister,abearmarketiscomingsoon.WarrenBuffettoncefamouslysaidthatthefirsttworulesofsuccessfulinvestingare

1) Don’tlosemoney

And…

2) 2)Neverforgetrule#1.NOTHINGlosesmoneylikeabearmarket.Takealookatthechartbelow.Inthelast20years,thestockmarkethasexperiencedtwomajorbearmarkets…onefrom2000to2003andtheotherfrom2007toearly2009.BOTHofthemsawinvestorsloseroughly50%oftheprecedingbullmarket’sgains.

TheBearMarketSignal:TheSecretSignalThatHasCalledEveryCrisisintheLast20Years

4

2

Between1983and2000,theS&P500gainedover1,000%.That’saMASSIVEreturnandonethatmadeliteralfortunesforlong-term“buyandhold”investorswhorodestocksallthewayup.Thenabearmarkethit,andthoseinvestorswhodidn’tsellintimegaveup45%oftheirgainsinthespanoftwoyears.Putanotherway,thebearmarketsawinvestorsgiveupnearlyaDECADE’Sworthofgainsinthespanoftwoyears,

5

3

Thenextbullmarketbeganin2003.Thistimearounditonlylastedfouryears,endinginlate2007.However,thegainswerestillsignificant,withstocksnearlydoublinginvalue…rising87%.TheyhaveupOVERHALFofthisreturnduringtheensuingbearmarket…whichonlylasted18months…

6

4

Bearinmind,we’retalkingaboutpercentageshere…intermsofactualstocklevels,thoseinvestorswhofailedtogetoutofharm’swayin2008lostALLoftheirgainsfromtheentirepreviousbullmarket.Actually,it’sevenworsethanthat,theGreatFinancialCrisistookstocksbacktolevelsthey’dlastseenin1997…soitdestroyedoveradecade’sworthofstockgains!

7

5

Here’sanevenmoredisturbingfact…theGreatFinancialCrisiswassoterriblethatstockswereoverTHREEYEARSintotheirnextbullmarketbeforetheyeclipsedtheirpriorpeak.Putanotherway…ifyouboughtstocksinthelate‘90s,unlessyoumanagedtosellatthepeakofeverybullmarketANDavoidALLoftheensuingbearmarkets,youDIDN’TMAKEANYMONEYFROMSTOCKSUNTIL2012(almost15years).

8

6

Sufficetosay,anysignalthatcanaccuratelypinpointwhenabearmarketisabouttohitisworthMILLIONSofdollarstoinvestors.Imagineifyou’dkeptALLofyourgainsfrombullmarkets…andmanagedtoavoidtheTechCrashANDtheGreatFinancialCrisis….andyou’llquicklyseemypoint.WhichiswhyIamurgingyoutokeepmyBearMarketsignalacompletesecret.I’veneverseenthissignalusedbyanyoneelse…Andgivenhowsuccessfulitisatavoidingbearmarkets…I’dliketokeepitthatway.Togiveyouanideaofhowaccuratethissignalis,letmegiveyouafewexamples…ThelasttimemyBearMarketSignalwentoffwasApril2008.Ifyou’dsoldallyourstocksatthattimeandmovedtocash,youwouldhaveavoidedALLoftheGreatFinancialCrisis.

9

7

ThatalonemeansthisBearMarketSignalisworthitsweightingold…butI’mnotdone…becausethissignalALSOwentoffbeforetheTechCrash.

10

8

Onceagain,thissignalworkeditsmagic…allowinginvestorstosidesteponeoftheworstBearMarketsindecades.Now,youcanunderstandwhyI’vekeptthissignalsosecretive…ithasliterallysavedinvestors’fortunesTWICEfromtheworstfinancialcrisesindecades.Hadyouheededthissignalin2000andin2008,youwouldhavesavedyourportfoliofromaWORLDofpain.Withthatinmind,keepthisinformationHIGHLYconfidential.

BearMarketSignalMybearmarketsignalconcernsaproprietaryuseofthestockmarket’smonthlymovingaverageconvergencedivergenceorMACD.Thatisacomplicatedname,anditsfunctionisactuallyquitesophisticated,butstickwithmeforalittlewhilelongerandyou’llsoonunderstandeverything.Firstandforemost,youneedtoknowaboutexponentialmovingaveragesorEMAs.Everyday,anassetclassclosesataparticularprice.Ifyouadduptheaverageofthesepricesforagivenperiodoftime,say50days,youarriveatthe50-daymovingaverage.Now,ifyougiverecentpricesmoreweight,oremphasis,thanolderprices,andyouarriveatyourexponentialmovingaverageorEMA.Inthesimplestofterms,theEMApresentsyouwithahistoricaveragepricethatemphasizesrecentpricemoves.Assuch,itcatchessignificantchangedinagivenasset’sdirectionquickly.Nowthatwe’veestablishedwhatanEMAis,wecanmoveontothemonthlymovingaverageconvergencedivergenceorMACDIuseformybearmarketsignal.Thissignalismadeupoftwointerweavinglines.Thefirstline(usuallyblackonthechart)isformedbysubtractingthe50-monthexponentialmovingaverage(EMA)fromthe100-monthEMA.

11

9

Soifthe50-monthEMAis12and100-monthEMAis10,theblacklinewouldbeat2forthatparticularday.Thesecondline(usuallyredonthechart)isformedbythe9-monthexponentialmovingaverage.My“BearMarketSignals”comewhentheblacklinebreaksbelowtheredline.Irealizethisisgettingcomplicated,soletmebreakitdownextremelysimply…Wearebasicallytalkingaboutshort-termmomentumandlonger-termmomentumforthestockmarket.AndbecauseweareusingMONTHLY(notdailyorweekly)momentummetrics,we’redoingthisforMAJORchangesinmarketmomentum…ChangeslikethearrivalofBEARmarkets.Let’stakealookatthissignalinaction.BelowisachartoftheS&P500from1995to2003.Asyoucansee,theshort-termmomentumsignalforthemarket(blackline)wasabovethelong-termmomentumsignalforthemarket(redline)throughoutthebullmarket(markedwithagreenarrow).Thismakessense,asduringbullmarketstherateofshort-termmomentumwillbehigherthantherateoflong-termmomentumbecausethemarketismovingeverhigher.

12

10

MyBearMarketSignaltriggeredinearly2001whentherateofshort-termmomentuminthestockmarketfellbelowtherateoflong-termmomentuminthestockmarket.Thistoldmethatthestockmarket’smomentumhadshiftedDOWNWARDinabigwayandthataBearMarkethadarrived(markedwitharedarrow).Thesamethinghappenedduringthe2008Crisis.

13

11

Hereagain,theshort-termmomentumsignalforthemarket(blackline)wasabovethelong-termmomentumsignalforthemarket(redline)throughoutthebullmarket(markedwithagreenarrow).TheBearMarketSignalhitwhenearly2008whentherateofshort-termmomentuminthestockmarketfellbelowtherateoflong-termmomentuminthestockmarket.Thistoldmethatthestockmarket’smomentumhadshiftedDOWNWARDinabigwayandthataBearMarkethadarrived(markedwitharedarrow).

14

12

Sowhereisthesignalnow?AsIwritethismid-2019,thestockmarketremainsinabullmarketwiththeshort-termmomentumsignalforthemarket(blackline)abovethelong-termmomentumsignalforthemarket(redline).WecameDARNclosetoaBearMarketsignalin2016,butthemarketralliedjustintimeandtheblacklineneverfellbelowtheredline.

Iwatchthismetriceverymonth.AndthemomentwegetaBearMarketSignal,I’llsendoutanalerttoletyouknow.WhileThePerfectTradeisadaytradingsystem,itiscriticaltonotethelarger

15

13

marketbackdropinwhichwearetrading.MyBearMarketTriggertellsuswhetherit’sabearmarketorabullmarket.

GrahamSummersChiefMarketStrategistPhoenixCapitalResearch

BestRegards,