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Limits to growth: Environmentalists efforts vs. natures own restrictions

Peak oil, EROI and our financial future

Charles Hall and Stephen Balogh

SUNY Environmental Science and Forestry, Syracuse N. Y. There are many calls from environmentalists of various stripes to reduce or make negative the growth of the U.S. economy or at least its fuel use:

Bryan Czech: Steady state economyMathis Wackernagel : Ecological Footprint Most obvious: IPCC Carbon release & Kyoto Accord The Bad News:

It aint happening Even Kyoto, which was too little too late, is being dismembered by Copenhagen and Durban Why?

For every one who wants environmental constraint there are a hundred(?) who want to: grow the economy

And how do you grow the economy?

The dirty secret: Use more energy

Mention how small a portion comes from renewable sources. 5 What then about restricting growth?

Well the good news (if it is): Its happening anywayWhile the U.S. economy is at more or less its highest inflation-corrected level ever right now

and despite some modestly encouraging issues there seems to be little question that the U.S. Economy is faltering relative to the past .

Why? Can we learn anything from ecology?

Does this relate to human economies? Lots of resources, Initial rapid growthEventual cessation of growthAre we approaching the Limits to Growth ?

Revisiting the Limits to Growth After Peak Oil

Charles A. S. Hall and John W. Day, Jr. 2009 American Scientist, Volume 97: 230-237

The Evidence: Declining Growth Rate of U.S. GDP

Another way of looking at the same data

--Stagnation in middle class incomes--Decline in per capita GDP WHY? Why is this the case? Why is the economic growth in the U.S. (and OECD and maybe the world) slowing down?

http://econ.worldbank.orgPrice Trend LineRising Energy Costs

From Chris Clugston Contact: coclugston@gmail.comDeclining Use of Non-Renewable Natural Resources (NNR)Hypothesis: Declining Non-renewable Natural Resource Input

Declining Economic Output (GDP)

Declining Societal material well being (Material Living Standards)

Are we just in an economic downturn (A) or are we on a slope (B)? ??Hypothesis BHypothesis AIf it is a slope (and it seems to be) what might be the cause of that?

My candidates:

Peak Oil (or rather declining rate of oil use) Declining EROI Economic production is a work process .. But There is no longer cheap energy to feed the beastGlobal Oil Production

The important thing (so far) is NOT peak oil but cessation of growth in oil (and energy)

U.S. Petroleum and Gasoline Demand DestructionRate of Change in Global Oil Production (1850-2010) 24King HubbertGeophysicist at the Shell lab in Houston, TexasIn 1956, he wrote a paper with predictions for the peak year of US oil production

24It happened

25

U.S. Natural Gas Production Forecast by TypeSource: Bryan Sell (2010)

Peak oil? Peak petroleum? (Courtesy of Colin Campbell) 1900-1960s: exponential growth1960-1980s: Steep linear growth1980-2000s: Shallow linear growth2000-2010: Minimal to no growth?Declining EROI??

EROI: definition, history and future implicationsDEFINITION of EROI (Sometimes EROEI)Energy return on investment for an activity: Energy delivered to society EROI = Energy put into that activity

Usually consider energy invested from society

Humans use high quality, low cost resources before low quality, high cost resources (Ricardo)

Best-to-worst ordering of resource exploitationBest First PrincipleUS Oil Field Size

EROI for Oil: U.S. and Others EROI for US Oil and Gas vs. Effort (footage drilled)Natural Gas Coal: US and China Consolidated Global EROI for all fuels1919-2006

In Summation Weve presented a lot of data consistent with the hypothesis that we are nearing a steady state economy / limits to growthThis is in spite of, or independent of, or despite our economic policies over the past several decadesOver this period, we have decreased our energy intensity (units of energy consumed per dollar of GDP), yet growth continues to slowRate of Growth of GDP and Primary Energy in the U.S.

Production, 109 Barrels per Year10203040Year19501975200020252050Most of our economic and financial theories were derived hereWhat economic theories and policy are appropriate here? Current US and Global Energy Situation C. Hall and D. Murphy?

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Neoclassical economicsMy final professional goal

THE ENDThanks to the Santa Barbara Family Foundation and DFID-UK 44End of a fossil fuel age.

R. Hersh What about England ?

Google : US EIA petroleum reserves 2011Pick : Maps: Exploration, Resources, Reserves, and Production - EIA (second page) Pick : Bakken Shale Production from 1985 to 2010 Updated 9/30/2011. It seems no one wants to hear these things. I believe they are behind the increasing financial problems we have in Europe and US for we have been clearly living economically beyond our biophysical means. This is not to negate greed, corruption and financial malfeasance.

II. WE WERE WARNED H. T. Odum M. King Hubbert Jay Forrester

Then one fateful day I was browsing in the UNC book store and found this: