TitleDate

The Auto Future: Fast, Furious and Uncertain

David E. ColeChairman Emeritus

Center for Automotive Research (CAR)Chairman AutoHarvest & Building America’s

Tomorrow

Rubber in Automotive Conference

June 14, 2017

TitleDate

2

The Old Business Model

is Broken

TitleDate

3

BureaucracyPaper Linear

Slow Lean

IndividualSequentialRegional

Physical Prototypes

Job for LifeKings

Talk

Competition StructuredAcquisitions

Vertical Integration

Legalistic

Old Business Model

Control

TitleDate

4

Anti-bureaucracyPaperless Collaboration

FastLean Agile

Teame-enabled

Global

Virtual Prototypes

People Flow Coaches

Listen

Coopetition

Parallel

FlexibleAlliances

Virtual Integration

Trust

New Business Model

Empowerment

TitleDate

5

Industry, Highly Unstable —

Not in Final Form

TitleDate 6

The Trump Effect ?

Trade

Regulations

Economics

Taxes

International Relations

Surprises Likely

TitleDate

7

Future Industry Structure–The Haves and

Have Nots

TitleDate

8

Success Requires Improvements in: Cost

Revenue

Agility

Innovation

TitleDate

9

Auto Industry of the Future

A World of

Vanishing Boundaries

TitleDate 10

Mega issues?

Technology/Materials

People/ Politics

Mobility

International Events

Natural Events

Autonomous Vehicles

TitleDate 11

Future Market Disruptions/Surprises Likely

Interest Rates ?

Politics/Economy

Energy Issues

Global Events

More

TitleDate 12

Manufacturing Choke Points?

Talent

Tooling

Suppliers

Equipment

Natural Events

Materials

TitleDate

Manufacturing Talent

Boomers are Retiring

All Jobs Require Special Skills

K-12 Pipeline is Not Adequate

Manufacturing- Concept to Sales

We Will be Short 2 Million Plus

Manufacturing Very High Tech

13

TitleDate

14

Building America’s Tomorrow – K-12

The Pipeline is not there. We have work to do.

TitleDate 15

CAFÉ Standards Footprint policy

Review Period

Credits

Energy Issues

Politics

Cost/Value

TitleDate

16

$2,250

$1,125 $750 $563 $450 $375 $321

$4,500

$2,250

$1,500 $1,125

$900 $750 $643

$7,500

$3,750

$2,500

$1,875 $1,500

$1,250 $1,071

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

$1.50/gal$3.00/gal$5.00/gal

Annual Mileage 15,000

MPG

TitleDate 17

Material Competition

System Issues- Not Static

Current Production System

Economics

Value of Weight Savings

Ford vs GM Example

Nothing For Sure/Forever

TitleDate

Future Auto Power Plants

18

Gasoline Diesel Hybrid Fuel Cell Electric ?

The Answer – ?

TitleDate

19

Future Fuels

Petroleum

Bio

Hydrogen

NH3

The Answer – ?

TitleDate

20

Future Gasoline Price –$ 1.50 – $ 5.00 /gallon

TitleDate

21

Breakthrough Areas

Advanced Batteries

Advanced Fuels

Autonomous Vehicles

Advanced Material Systems

TitleDate

22

Autonomous Vehicles

Huge Potential- But!

Consumer Behavior

Technology/ Cost

Winners ?

Liability Issues

Policy

TitleDate

23

Knowledge

The Competitive Edge

TitleDate

Innovation:

Innovative People and Companies Win

It Takes a Team

Leadership is Critical

Look Across Traditional Boundaries

Sometimes It is Better to Ask Forgiveness than Permission

24

TitleDate

25

Fasten Your Seat BeltsThe Fun is Just Beginning; We live

in Very Exciting Times