THE ASIAN OIL PROBLEM:THE ASIAN OIL PROBLEM:Regional Cooperation in Regional Cooperation in ASEANASEAN

ByByGuillermo R. BalceGuillermo R. BalceASEAN Centre for EnergyASEAN Centre for EnergyJakarta, Indonesia 2001Jakarta, Indonesia 2001

IntroductionIntroductionTo analyse the oil situation in Asia and unravel the underlying problems, Southeast Asia must be treated as a distinct entity from Northeast Asia and South Asia. This is dictated by at least two major reasons: Geography and the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).

This presentation provides a brief view of the oil industry situation in the ASEAN region, as follows:

Oil Industry Structure

Supply – Demand

Crude Oil Trade Flows and Chokepoints

Petroleum Reserves

ASEAN Cooperation

Oil Industry Structure of the Oil Industry Structure of the ASEAN CountriesASEAN Countries

COUNTRYACTIVITY AREA

DOMINANT SECTOR

Regulation Upstream Downstream Gov’tPrivat

e

BRUNEI D. BOGA BSP & Private BSP

CAMBODIACNPA Contractors Importers,

Retailers

INDONESIAPertamina Pertamina / Contractors /

Operators

LAO PDR MTT None MTT

MALAYSIA Petronas Petronas / Contractors / Operators

MYANMARMOGE MOGE/

ContractorsGov’t Enterprises

PHILIPPINES

DOE PNOC / Private Deregulated 1998

SINGAPORE EMA None Deregulated

THAILAND PTT PTT / Contractors Deregulated 1991

VIETNAM PetroVietnam

PetroVietnam / Contractors

Gov’t Companies

BOGA: Brunei Oil & Gas Authority; BSP: Brunei Shell Petroleum; CNPA: Cambodia National Petroleum Authority; MTT: Ministry of Trade and Tourism; MOGE: Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise; DOE: Department of Energy; PNOC: Philippine National Oil Company; EMA: Energy Market Authority; PTT: Petroleum Authority of Thailand.

Oil Supply - Demand Oil Supply - Demand

ASEAN Crude Oil Production ASEAN Crude Oil Production (in KTOE)(in KTOE)COUNTRY 1995 1998 2000

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 8,680.00 7,801.17 9,597.68CAMBODIA 0.00 0.00 0.00INDONESIA 76,741.00 68,372.56 *27,777.01LAO PDR 0.00 0.00 0.00MALAYSIA 35,090.00 35,784.00 *14,260.00MYANMAR 0.00 549.00 544.00PHILIPPINES 97.00 25.44 46.10SINGAPORE 0.00 0.00 0.00THAILAND 2,550.00 3,618.00 4,891.00VIETNAM 7,880.00 N.A. N.A.

ASEAN 131,038.00 116,150.17 ++57,115.79

Source: ACE 2001Note : * (1st semester only)

Oil Supply - Demand Oil Supply - Demand Petroleum Product Consumption of the Petroleum Product Consumption of the ASEAN Countries (in KTOE)ASEAN Countries (in KTOE)COUNTRY 1995 1998 2000

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 449.00 548.88 900.18

CAMBODIA 431.00 525.20 974.00

INDONESIA 37,132.32 42,517.04 *22,624.02

LAO PDR 378.00 607.00 N.A.

MALAYSIA 18,986.00 20,883.40 *8,279.00

MYANMAR 1,322.00 548.88 638.65

PHILIPPINES 12,437.00 19,766.18 13,145.10

SINGAPORE 4,726.00 N.A. N.A

THAILAND 32,476.00 22,853.44 27,048.36

VIETNAM 5,278.00 5,806.00 N.A.

ASEAN 113,615.32 114,056.02 ++ 73,609.31

Source: ACE 2001Note : * (1st semester only)

Oil Supply - Demand Oil Supply - Demand ASEAN Refinery Outputs ASEAN Refinery Outputs (in KTOE)(in KTOE)

COUNTRY 1995 1998 2000

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

528.00 888.84 539.75

CAMBODIA N.R. N.R. N.R.

INDONESIA 34,051.71 44,509.20 1 26,354.31

LAO PDR N.R. N.R. N.R.

MALAYSIA 16,686.00 16,732.40 1 10,552.00

MYANMAR 926.00 888.84 821.29

PHILIPPINES 15,303.00 * 16,144.00 14,858.30

SINGAPORE * 46,629.00 * 47,694.00 N.A.

THAILAND 22,211.00 32,707.89 33,700.26

VIETNAM N.R. N.R. N.R.

ASEAN 136,334.71 159,565.17 ++86,825.91

Source: ACE 2001; *IEA – Oil Information 2000; Note : N.R. – No Refineries; 1 (1st semester only)

Current Oil Security Current Oil Security Situation: Situation: Self SufficiencySelf Sufficiency

COUNTRY SELF SUFFICIENCY

(CRUDE OIL PROD. / TOTAL PETRO. CONSUMPTION)

1995 1998 2000BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 19.330 14.210 10.660CAMBODIA 0.000 0.000 0.000INDONESIA 2.070 1.610 *1.230LAO PDR 0.000 0.000 0.000MALAYSIA 1.850 1.710 *1.720MYANMAR 0.000 0.000 0.850PHILIPPINES 0.010 0.060 0.004SINGAPORE 0.000 0.000 0.000THAILAND 0.080 0.160 0.180VIETNAM 1.490 N.A. N.A.

Source: ACE 2001Note : * (1st semester only)

Life Expectancy of Life Expectancy of ReservesReservesCOUNTRY

OIL RESERVE (MTOE)

RESERVE LIFEReserve/Production or

*Consumption(Years)

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM

196.00 25

CAMBODIA 0.00 0INDONESIA 1,372.00 20LAO PDR 0.00 0MALAYSIA 478.80 13MYANMAR 28.00 51PHILIPPINES 39.90 * 3SINGAPORE 0.00 0THAILAND 21.84 6VIETNAM 364.00 46

ASEAN 2500.54 * 22

Source: ACE 2001

Crude Oil Trade Flows & Crude Oil Trade Flows & ChokepointsChokepoints

Petroleum ReservesPetroleum Reserves

Source: BP Statistical Review 2001

ASEAN*17.861

* ACE 2001

Petroleum ReservesPetroleum Reserves

Legend

Oil field/s

Gas/condensate field/sOil/gas field/s

INDONESIAOil :9.8 BBlGas :166 TCF

INDONESIAOil :9.8 BBlGas :166 TCF

MYANMAROil : 0.20 BBl Gas : 12.07 TCF

MYANMAROil : 0.20 BBl Gas : 12.07 TCF

THAILANDOil : 0.156 BBl Gas : 12.2 TCF

THAILANDOil : 0.156 BBl Gas : 12.2 TCF

MALAYSIAOil : 3.42 BBl Gas : 84.4 TCF

MALAYSIAOil : 3.42 BBl Gas : 84.4 TCF

LAO PDROil : - Gas : -

LAO PDROil : - Gas : -

CAMBODIAOil : - Gas : -

CAMBODIAOil : - Gas : -

SINGAPOREOil : - Gas : -

SINGAPOREOil : - Gas : -

VIETNAMOil :2.6 BBl Gas :25 TCF

VIETNAMOil :2.6 BBl Gas :25 TCF

BRUNEIOil :1.4 BBlGas :13.8 TCF

BRUNEIOil :1.4 BBlGas :13.8 TCF

PHILIPPINESOil : 0.285 BBl Gas : 4.6 TCF

PHILIPPINESOil : 0.285 BBl Gas : 4.6 TCF

Petroleum ReservesPetroleum Reserves

COUNTRYOIL

(Billion Barrel)GAS

(Trillion Cubic Feet)

BRUNEI DARUSSALAM 1.400 13.800

CAMBODIA - -

INDONESIA 9.800 166.000

LAO PDR - -

MALAYSIA 3.420 84.400

MYANMAR 0.200 12.070

PHILIPPINES 0.285 4.600

SINGAPORE - -

THAILAND 0.156 12.200

VIETNAM 2.600 25.000

TOTAL 17.861 318.070

Source: ESSPA Report 2001; BP Statistical Report 2001.

ASEAN Energy ASEAN Energy CooperationCooperationEnergy Security : The driving forceEnergy Security : The driving force

1970

2000

1990

1995

1985

1980

1975

GLOBAL OIL CRISIS

ASEAN ENERGY COOPERATION

1970

2000

1990

1995

1985

1980

1975

ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation (1999-2004)Establishment of ACE (1999)Hanoi Plan of Action ASEAN Vision 2020 (1999)ASEAN Program of Action on Energy Cooperation (1995-1999)ASEAN Energy Amendment (1995); AEMEC to AMEMPriority for ASEAN Power Grid, APSA and TAGP (1994)

Thai-Indo Coal Coop. (1990)AEEMTRC creation (1988)Phil – Indo Coal Coop. (1987ASEAN Energy Cooperation Agreement (1986)ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA, 1986)

1st Meeting of HAPUA (1981)Indonesia & Malaysia assisted other ASEAN Countries on oil needs / 1st AEMEC (1980)ASCOPE’s Emergency Petroleum sharing scheme (1977)ASCOPE creation (1976)

ASEAN Emergency Petroleum Sharing Scheme Supplementary to ASCOPE’s (1983)

ASEAN Establishment (1967)

Gulf War (1990)

Iran – Iraq Tanker War (1981-1988)

2nd Oil Shock (1979)

1st Oil Shock (1973)

ENERGY

SECURITY

ASCOPE: ASEAN Council on Petroleum ; AEEMTRC: ASEAN-EU Energy Management Training and Research Centre; TAGP: Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline; AMEM: ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting

The ASEAN Energy SectorThe ASEAN Energy SectorASEAN HEADS OF

STATE/GOVERNMENT

ASEAN HEADS OF STATE/GOVERNMENT

AMMSTOTHER MINISTERIAL

MEETINGS

ASEAN CENTRE

FORENERGY

(ACE)

ASEAN CENTRE

FORENERGY

(ACE)

COST

A M M ASEANS G

A E M OTHER MINISTERIAL

MEETINGS

A S C S O M

ASCOPEASCOPE

NRSESSN

NRSESSN

EE & CSSN

EE & CSSN

HAPUAHAPUA AEBFAEBF AFOCAFOCSCNCERSCNCER

ASEANSECRETARIAT

ASEANSECRETARIAT

A M E MA M E M

S O M ES O M E

LEGEND:

AEBF: ASEAN Energy Business ForumAEM: ASEAN Economic MinistersAFOC: ASEAN Forum on CoalAMEM: ASEAN Ministers of Energy MeetingAMM: ASEAN Ministerial MeetingAMMST: ASEAN Ministerial Meeting on Science & Technology ASC: ASEAN Standing CommitteeASCOPE: ASEAN Council on PetroleumCOST: Committee on Science & TechnologyEE&C SSN: Energy Efficiency and Conservation Subsectoral NetworkHAPUA: Heads of ASEAN Power Utilities/AuthoritiesNRSE SSN: New & Renewable Sources of Energy Subsectoral NetworkSCNCER: Sub-Committee on Non-Conventional Energy ResearchS G: Secretary GeneralSOM: Senior Officials MeetingSOME: Senior Officials Meeting on Energy

Energy Cooperation in Energy Cooperation in GeneralGeneral

ASEAN VISION 2020ASEAN VISION 2020

“Interconnecting arrangements in the field of energy … for electricity, natural gas … within ASEAN through the ASEAN Power Grid and a Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline.”

Declared by the ASEAN Heads of State / Government at the 2nd ASEAN Informal Summit in Kuala Lumpur, 14 – 16 December 1997

ASEAN Plan of Action for ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation 1999-Energy Cooperation 1999-20042004

PROGRAMME AREASPROGRAMME AREAS ASEAN Power Grid Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline Coal Energy Efficiency and Conservation New and Renewable Sources of Energy Regional Energy Outlook, Energy Policy and Environmental Analysis

TAGP Master Plan 2001TAGP Master Plan 2001

ASEAN Power GridASEAN Power Grid1. Peninsular Malaysia –

Singapore2. Thailand – Peninsular

Malaysia3. Sarawak – Peninsular

Malaysia4. Sumatra – Peninsular

Malaysia5. Batam – Bintan – Singapore6. Sarawak – West Kalimantan7. Philippines – Sabah8. Sarawak – Sabah – Brunei9. Thailand – Lao PDR10. Lao PDR – Cambodia11. Thailand – Myanmar12. Vietnam – Cambodia13. Lao PDR – Vietnam14. Thailand – Cambodia15. Sabah – East Kalimantan

1. Peninsular Malaysia – Singapore

2. Thailand – Peninsular Malaysia

3. Sarawak – Peninsular Malaysia

4. Sumatra – Peninsular Malaysia

5. Batam – Bintan – Singapore6. Sarawak – West Kalimantan7. Philippines – Sabah8. Sarawak – Sabah – Brunei9. Thailand – Lao PDR10. Lao PDR – Cambodia11. Thailand – Myanmar12. Vietnam – Cambodia13. Lao PDR – Vietnam14. Thailand – Cambodia15. Sabah – East Kalimantan

15

Other ASEAN Cooperation Other ASEAN Cooperation Schemes Related to OilSchemes Related to Oil• ASEAN Petroleum Sharing Agreement (APSA, 1986)

• Common Effective Preferential Tariff Scheme for the ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA, 1992)

• Agreement for the Facilitation of Search of Ships in Distress and Rescue of Survivors of Ship Accidents (1975)

• ASEAN Framework Agreement on Multimodal Transport (2001)

• The remaining transport-related Protocols for the ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Goods in Transit (2001)

• ASEAN Framework Agreement on the Facilitation of Inter-State Transport (2001).

ConclusionsConclusions• Southeast Asia has strategic chokepoints for major Middle East

oil destinations.

• The oil industries in five of the ten ASEAN Countries have dominant government roles. But, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are on the road to deregulation and privatisation.

• Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam are net oil exporters. Myanmar may also follow. However, ASEAN as a whole is likely to become net oil importer in 22 years.

• The Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) ensures unified actions on issues of energy and economic security.

• The main elements of ASEAN Energy Cooperation are:– Specialized bodies on various fields of energy, with ASCOPE and ACE in the

forefront of cooperation in petroleum.

– ASEAN Plan of Action for Energy Cooperation guided by ASEAN Vision 2020 of a Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline and an ASEAN Power Grid.

– ASEAN Petroleum Sharing Agreement (APSA)

– ASEAN Free Trade Area Scheme (AFTA)

THANK YOUTHANK YOU

Crude Oil Import and Export Crude Oil Import and Export (in (in KTOE)KTOE)

COUNTRYIMPORT EXPORT

1995 1998 2000 1995 1998 2000

BRUNEI D. 0.00 0.00 0.00 8,319.00 7,509.00 9,415.00

CAMBODIA N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A. N.A.

INDONESIA 9,301.00 10,519.00 *5,066.00 42,344.00 35,178.00*13,313.0

0

LAO PDR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

MALAYSIA 1,315.00 2,014.00 3,973.00 19,833.00 18,640.00 *8,503.00

MYANMAR 536.00 650.00 657.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

PHILIPPINES

16,005.00 16.00 15,215.00 92.00 0.00 0.00

SINGAPORE 54,785.00 N.A. N.A. 65.00 N.A. N.A.

THAILAND 22,840.00 33,924.00 39,169.00 716.00 1,031.00 N.A.

VIETNAM N.A. N.A. N.A. 7,839.00 N.A. N.A.

ASEAN104,782.0

047,123.00

+64,080.00

79,208.00 62,358.00+31,231.0

0

Source: ACE 2001Note : * (1st semester only)

ImportImport & & Export of Petroleum Export of Petroleum

ProductsProducts ((in KTOE)in KTOE)

COUNTRYIMPORT EXPORT

1995 1998 2000 1995 1998 2000

BRUNEI D. 7.00 51.47 28.42 0.00 0.84 0.00

CAMBODIA * 525.00 * 675.00 N.A. 0.00 0.00 0.00

INDONESIA 22,075.09 24,745.81 16,769.95 49,260.06 43,144.09 14,134.80

LAO PDR 0.28 * 607.00 N.A. 0.00 0.00 0.00

MALAYSIA 9,411.00 9,359.50 13,113.00 7,428.00 7,193.80 14,378.00

MYANMAR 201.00 767.35 884.68 10.00 0.00 0.00

PHILIPPINES 2,054.00 2,122.16 3,269.49 1,496.00 * 889.00 1,731.16

SINGAPORE 27,199.00 *33,873.00 N.A. 66,667.00 *45,654.00 N.A.

THAILAND 9,190.00 1,266.19 1,182.88 453.00 4,213.81 4,859.27

VIETNAM 5,094.00 * 6,518.00 N.A. 0.00 0.00 0.00

ASEAN 75,756.37 79,985.48 ++15,248.42

125,314.05

101,095.54

++15,103.23

Source: IEA – Oil Information 2000; *ACE – ESSPA 2001Note : 1 (1st semester only)