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The ASEAN Economic Community:State of Implementation andImplications for the Philippines

Jrn Dosch, 5 December 2014

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...

Cartoon: http://www.irrawaddy.org/articlefiles/14463-3_mar_cartoon.gif

Post 2015Vision

AEC2015

AFTA 1992

Preferential

TradeAgreement(PTA) 1977

ASEANIndustrialProjects(AIP) 1976

ASEAN IndustrialComplementationScheme (AIC) 1981

ASEAN

Trade inGoodsAgreement(ATIGA)2010

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The Vision & the Challenge

22.11.2014 2014 UNIVERSITT ROSTOCK 3

AEC:integratedeconomic

region

Single market

andproduction

base

Equitableeconomic

development

Integration

into the GlobalEconomy

Competitiveeconomic

region

The Trouble ofTerminology

A single or internalmarket consists of two ormore nations amongwhich goods, capital, andcurrencies can movefreely across borders

without tariffs or otherrestrictions.

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Is Intra-Regional Trade theBottom Line?

11/22/2014 5

http://www.imf.org/external/country/VNM/rr/2013/101113.pdf

http://www.adbi.org/files/2013.10.25.wp440.asean.economic.community.progress.challenges.pdf

2122

25.1 24.5 25.5 25.4 25 24.3 26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1998 2000 2003 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Share of intra-regional trade in % of total ASEAN trade

Data compiled from ASEAN Statistics

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....Extra-Regional Trade LooksMore Impressive.

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2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012ASEAN imports from

China97443 112560 97605 128045 156622 204270

ASEAN Exports toChina

79429 89327 82887 114134 142764 195820

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000ASEAN-China Trade 2007-2012

Chartbased on data compiled from WTO Trade Statistics

Deutsche Bank Research (2013),

http://www.dbresearch.com/PROD/DBR_INTERNET_EN-

PROD/PROD0000000000315342.pdf

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Efficiency of Border Administration 2009 & 2014

*Data for Brunei (2009 and 2014), Laos and Myanmar (2009) were not availableThe higher the score, the more efficient and transparent is the respective border administrationChart based on data compiled from World Economic Forum: The Global Enabling Report 2009 and 2014

33.8 4.7 3.7

6.5

4.53.3

3.44.4 5.2 4.3

6.34.7

43.4 3.3

0

1

2

34

5

6

7

2009

2014

Customs: The (modest) Success Story

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Efficiency of import-exportprocedures, detailed indicators(2009 & 2014)

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Efficiency ofthe clearance

process

1-5 (best)

No. of days toimport

No. ofdocuments to

import

Cost toimport, US$

per container

No. of days toexport

No. ofdocuments to

export

Cost toexport, US$

per container

2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014 2009 2014

Cambodia 2.2 2.7 30 24 11 9 872 930 22 22 11 8 732 795

Indonesia 2.7 2.9 27 23 6 8 660 660 21 17 5 4 704 615

Malaysia 3.4 3.4 14 8 7 4 450 485 18 11 7 4 450 450

Philippines 2.6 3.0 16 14 8 7 819 660 16 15 8 6 816 585

Singapore 3.9 4.0 3 4 4 3 439 440 5 6 4 3 456 460

Thailand 3.0 3.2 13 13 3 5 795 760 14 21 4 5 625 595

Vietnam 2.9 2.8 23 21 8 8 901 600 24 21 6 5 734 610

Significant improvements

Slight improvements

Slight worsening

worsening

*Data for Brunei, Laos and Myanmar were not available

Table based on data compiled from World Economic Forum: The Global Enabling

Report 2009 and 2014

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Concluding Diagnostics

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Is the Institutional Setting the Problem?