The Arctic winter stratosphere in PAMIP atmosphere-only experiments Elisa Manzini ... · 2020. 2....

Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie

The Arctic winter stratosphere in PAMIP atmosphere-only experiments

Elisa Manzini (Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germay)

Tido Semmler and Thomas Jung (Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany)

Evangelos Tyrlis and Daniela Matei(Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany)

Rosie Eade, Steve Hardiman and Doug Smith (Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom)


Response of the Arctic winter stratosphere to sea ice loss:• surface weather and climate (remote impact)• transport and ozone (local impact)

Screen et al NG 2018 Stratosphere: active component of the climate response to sea ice loss

Non stationary response Dependence on sea ice loss location

Peing and Magnusdottir JC 2014Screen JC 2017 …….

Representation of the stratosphere

Sun et al JC 2015Nakamura et al GRL 2016 …..


PAMIP atmosphere-only time slice experiments: 1.1, 1.2, 1.3, 1.6

• SST&SIC change: pd SST & SIC – pi SST & SIC• pdSIC change: pd – pi SIC, fixed pi SST• SST change: pd – pi SST, fixed pd SIC• futArcSIC change: futArc – pd SIC, fixed pd SST

• Atmospheric component of the MPI and AWI ESMs: ECHAM6 at T127L95 and ECHAM6 at T63L47 (LR)

• MET OFFICE MODEL

• Seasonal evolution of the ensemble an zonally-averaged zonal wind @ 60N. Daily, 5-day smoothed

• Wave Activity Budget for the Extratropical Lower Stratosphere. Ensemble-average, monthly mean


Wave Activity Budget for the Extratropical Lower Stratosphere

epfz

epfy

Peing and Magnusdottir (2014)

Kushner Polvani (2004) Sigmond and Scinocca (2010) …….

ua


Ensemble averaged changes Zonally-averaged Zonal Wind @ 60 N

exp11 - exp12 ua m/s 60N

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5 0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

1 1

1

-4-3

-3 -3

-2

-2

-2

-2-2

-2

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1-1-1

-1

-1

-1-1 -1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5-0.5

-0.5-0.5

-0.5

-0.5 -0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

1 32 62 93 124 152 1831000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.5

0.50.5

1-6-5-4

-3 -2

-2

-2

-2

-2

-1 -1

-1-1 -1

-1

-1-1-1

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5 -0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5-0.5

-0.5

1 32 62 93 124 152 183 [1 Jan is day=93]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

] stratosphereto

troposphere

echam6 T127L95

OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR


SST&SIC

pdSIC

Shaded: significance at 90%



0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5 0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.51

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1

2

2

3

3-3

-2-2 -2

-1

-1

-1 -1 -1

-1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5 -0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5-0.5 -0.5

1 32 62 93 124 152 1831000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

exp16 - exp11 ua m/s 60N0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

1 1

1 1 1

2 2-2 -2 -2

-2

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1-1

-1-1

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

1 32 62 93 124 152 183 [1 Jan is day=93]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


SST driven

mid winterstratosphere

somewhatunperturbed

echam6 T127L95


SST

futArcSIC




90N45N

100 hPa

10 hPa

NOV DEC JAN FEB

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

Ensemble averaged changes Wave activity budget [104 kg m s-4]

convergence

positive: upward epf


SST&SICpdSICSSTfutArcSIC

positive: equatorward epf

echam6 T127L95


echam6 T63L47


0.5

0.5

0.50.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.50.5

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1

2 2

-5 -5-4 -4-3 -3-2

-2

-2

-2

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-0.5-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5-0.5

1 32 62 93 124 152 1831000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.5

0.5

0.5

0.50.5

0.5

0.5

0.50.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

1 1

1

2

-3-2 -2 -2

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

1 32 62 93 124 152 183 [1 Jan is day=93]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

1

1

1

1

1

1 1

1

1 1

-4-3-2-2 -2

-1 -1 -1-1

-1

-1-1 -1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

1 32 62 93 124 152 1831000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.5

0.5 0.5 0.5

0.5

0.50.5

0.5

0.5

0.50.51

1

1

1

1

1

23 -2-2

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1-1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5 -0.5

-0.5

-0.5-0.5

-0.5

1 32 62 93 124 152 183 [1 Jan is day=93]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]





SIC driven


SST driven

SST&SIC

pdSIC

SST

futArcSIC



90N45N

100 hPa

10 hPa

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

NOV DEC JAN FEB

convergence




positive: equatorward epf

Ensemble averaged changes Wave activity budget [104 kg m s-4]

echam6 T63L47


exp11 - exp12 ua m/s DJF

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.51 1

1

-1

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 801000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.51 1

1

-1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 801000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.5

-3

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5-0.1

-0.1-0.1

20 40 60 80 [latitude]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1 0.1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 80 [latitude]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.51

1

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 801000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.1 0.5

0.5

0.5

1

1-1

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 801000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

-1

-0.5

-0.5-0.1

-0.1

-0.1-0.1

20 40 60 80 [latitude]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.5

-3

-1

-1-0.5

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 80 [latitude]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

METOECHAM6 T127L95


0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.51 1

1

-1

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 801000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.51 1

1

-1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 801000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.5

-3

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5-0.1

-0.1-0.1

20 40 60 80 [latitude]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10 pr

essu

re [h

Pa]


0.1

0.1 0.1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 80 [latitude]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.5

1

1

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 801000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

exp11 - exp13 ua m/s DJF0.1

0.1

0.1 0.5

0.5

0.5

1

1-1

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1-0.1

20 40 60 801000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.10.1

-1

-0.5

-0.5-0.1-0.1

-0.1-0.1

20 40 60 80 [latitude]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]


0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.5

-3

-1

-1-0.5

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

20 40 60 80 [latitude]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

pdSIC change: pd – pi SIC, fixed pi SST

futArcSIC change: futArc – pd SIC, fixed pd SST

Ensemble averaged changes DJF Zonally-averaged Zonal Wind


EP-flux bottom

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

45-

90N

@ 1

00hP

a EP

Z [1

04 k

g m

s4 ]

EP-flux bottom

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

45-

90N

@ 1

00hP

a EP

Z [1

04 k

g m

s4 ]

NOV DEC JAN FEB NOV DEC JAN FEB

METOECHAM6 T127L95


45-90N @ 100 hPa upward EP flux [104 kg m s-4]


exp11 T63 ua m/s EQ

1

1

1

1

1

1

5

5

10-30-25-20

-15-15

-10

-10

-10

-10

-5-5

-5

-5

-5

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

exp11 T127 ua m/s EQ

1

11

1

1

5

5

5

1010

10

1515

1520

25-20-20 -15

-15

-15 -10

-10

-10

-10-5-5

-5

-5-5

-5

-5

-5-1

-1

-1

-1

-1-1

-1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 [Jan is mt=10]

1000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

exp11 METO ua m/s EQ

1

1

11

1

1

5

55

51010

1010

1515

15 15

20

2020

-20-15

-15-10

-10

-10

-5

-5

-5

-5

-5

-5-5

-1

-1

-1

-1-1

-1

-1-1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 141000

500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

METOECHAM6 T127L95

DJF DJF

Ensemble and zonally-averaged zonal wind at the Equator, pd SST & SIC

months, from IC


SUMMARY

Arctic winter stratosphere in PAMIP atmos-only experiments

Impact of sea ice loss: • Potential for a weaker stratospheric vortex, by increased wave activity • Seasonal timing of response varies: mid winter / early and late winter• Dependence to the forcing varies: past to present / present to future

Differences: Originating in the troposphere? What is the role of local thermal response to SIC? Tropospheric stationary waves?

SST impact: • Mixed: weaker / stronger stratospheric vortex

Role of initialization: • Coherent QBO for all members, from the initialization• Another ensemble with a different IC QBO phase?


pamip11 mean ua m/s JJA

0.5

0.5

0.5 0.50.5

0.5

0.5

1 1

1

1

2

2

2

3

3456789101216

1820

-2-1

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5

20 40 60 80500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

pamip11 mean ua m/s SON

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

1

11

1

22

345678910121618

-5-4

-4

-3

-3

-2

-2

-2

-1

-1 -1

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

20 40 60 80500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

pamip11 mean ua m/s DJF

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

1

1

1

12

2

2

3

3

3

4

4

4

5

5

5

6

6

67

7 78

89

910

1012

12

16-12-10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3

-2 -2

-2-1

-1 -1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

20 40 60 80500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

pamip11 mean ua m/s MAM

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.5

1

11

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

3

3

3456

-4-3-2

-1

-1

-1

-1

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

20 40 60 80500

200

100

50

20

10

pres

sure

[hPa

]

METO minus ECHAM6 T127L95

The Arctic winter stratosphere in PAMIP atmosphere-only experiments Elisa Manzini ... · 2020. 2....

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Transcript of The Arctic winter stratosphere in PAMIP atmosphere-only experiments Elisa Manzini ... · 2020. 2....