The Arctic Species Trend Indexlibrary.arcticportal.org/1665/1/ASTImarine.pdfThe Arctic Species Trend...

CAFF Assessment Series No. 7April 2012

The Arctic Species Trend IndexTracking trends in Arctic marine populations

CAFF Designated Agencies:

• DirectorateforNatureManagement,Trondheim,Norway

• EnvironmentCanada,Ottawa,Canada

• FaroeseMuseumofNaturalHistory,Tórshavn,FaroeIslands(KingdomofDenmark)

• FinnishMinistryoftheEnvironment,Helsinki,Finland

• IcelandicInstituteofNaturalHistory,Reykjavik,Iceland

• TheMinistryofDomesticAffairs,NatureandEnvironment,GovernmentofGreenland

• RussianFederationMinistryofNaturalResources,Moscow,Russia

• SwedishEnvironmentalProtectionAgency,Stockholm,Sweden

• UnitedStatesDepartmentoftheInterior,FishandWildlifeService,Anchorage,Alaska

CAFF Permanent Participant Organisations:

• AleutInternationalAssociation(AIA)

• ArcticAthabaskanCouncil(AAC)

• Gwich’inCouncilInternational(GCI)

• InuitCircumpolarCouncil(ICC)

• RussianIndigenousPeoplesoftheNorth(RAIPON)

• SaamiCouncil

Thispublicationshouldbecitedas:McRae,L.,Deinet,S.,Gill,M.&Collen,B.(2012)TrackingTrendsinArcticmarinepopulations.CAFFAssessmentSeriesNo.7.ConservationofArcticFloraandFauna,Iceland.ISBN:978-9935-431-15-8

Frontcoverphoto:neelsky/Shutterstock.com

Backcoverphoto:SergeyUryadnikov/Shutterstock.com

Graphicsby:MargrétValmundsdóttir

Formoreinformationpleasecontact:CAFF International SecretariatBorgir, Nordurslod600 Akureyri, IcelandPhone: +354 462-3350Fax: +354 462-3390Email: [email protected]: http://www.caff.is

Editing:JoanEamer,DonRussellLayout:CourtneyPrice

Acknowledgements

___CAFFDesignatedArea

3

Table of Contents

Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................ 5

Introduction ............................................................................................................................................ 6

Results and Discussion ........................................................................................................................... 7

Pan-Arctic update .................................................................................................................................................. 7Table1.NumberofspeciesandpopulationsintheASTI........................................................................................................... 7Figure1.Datacoveragebytaxonomicclass................................................................................................................................... 7Figure2.Indexofabundancefor323Arcticvertebratespecies(890populations),from1970to2007.................. 8Figure3:IndexofabundanceforArcticvertebratespeciesfrom1970to2007groupedbyhigh,lowandsubArctic.............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 8

Marine results ......................................................................................................................................... 9

Overview ................................................................................................................................................................ 9Figure4.Spatialdistributionofmarinepopulationdatacollected......................................................................................... 9Table2.NumberofArcticmarinespeciesandpopulationsbyoceanbasinandclass..................................................10Figure5.IndicesofabundanceforArcticvertebratespecies,groupedbymarineandterrestrialspecies,1970to2005..............................................................................................................................................................................................10

Baselines .............................................................................................................................................................. 11Figure6.Indicesofabundancebytaxonomicclass,1970to2005.......................................................................................12Figure7.Effectsoftheremovalofeachclassonthemarineindicesofabundanceweightedatthespecieslevel..............................................................................................................................................................................................................12

Taxonomic trends ................................................................................................................................................ 12

Regional trends ................................................................................................................................................... 14Figure8.Indicesofabundancebyoceanregion,1970to2005............................................................................................15Figure9.Boxplotshowingthemedianannualrateofchangeoffishspeciesineachoceanicregionfrom1970to2005.............................................................................................................................................................................................15

Bering Sea effect .................................................................................................................................................. 16Figure10.IndicesofabundanceformarinepopulationsshowingtheeffectofremovingtheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandpopulations.BSAIdatasetscomprised71species,138populations..................................................16Figure11.IndicesofabundanceformarinepopulationsfromtheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandregion(BSAI)forbirds,fishesandmammals...............................................................................................................................................17

Ecological trends ................................................................................................................................................. 18

Sea-ice association .............................................................................................................................................. 18Figure12:Knownstatusofindividualpopulationsforninesea-iceassociatedmarinespecies...............................18

Regime shift ......................................................................................................................................................... 19Figure13.Indicesofabundanceforbenthic,pelagic,andbenthopelagicfishspeciesfrom1970to2005..........19

Pelagic fish trends ............................................................................................................................................... 20Figure14.ComparisonofthethreeyearrunningaverageforthepelagicfishindexandtheArcticOscillation..................................................................................................................................................................................................20Figure15.ComparisonofestimatedherringpopulationsizeintheBristolBayareaandtheseaiceextentintheEastBeringSea............................................................................................................................................................................21

4

Figure16.Boxplotshowingmedianrateofchangebytrophiclevelforparasitesandforprimary,secondary,andtertiaryconsumers.........................................................................................................................................................................22Figure17.Trendsinabundanceindicesforspeciesofpiscivorousandplanktivorousbirdsandfishesfrom1970to2005.............................................................................................................................................................................................22

Trophic level ......................................................................................................................................................... 22

Conservation management trends .................................................................................................................... 23Figure18.Indicesofabundanceforpopulationsbythreatclassificationfrom1970to2005....................................23Table3.Totalnumbersofpopulationsandspeciesthatarefoundinsideandoutsideprotectedareas................24Figure19.Boxplotshowingthemedianratesofchangeofbirdpopulationsforwhichathreatisidentified,groupedbyprimarythreat,1970to2005......................................................................................................................................24

Protected areas .................................................................................................................................................... 24Figure20.Indicesofabundanceforprotectedandunprotectedbirdpopulationsfrom1970to2005.................25

Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................. 26

References ............................................................................................................................................. 27

Appendix 1: Methods ........................................................................................................................... 31Populationdata..........................................................................................................................................................................31Datatagging...............................................................................................................................................................................31

AppendixTable1-A.Datatypeofpopulationsbyclass...........................................................................................................31AppendixTable1-B.Populationandspecies-baseddatatags..............................................................................................32

Trendanalysis.............................................................................................................................................................................32

Appendix 2: Table of ANOVA results ................................................................................................... 33

Appendix 3: List of monitored species and locations ........................................................................ 34

Appendix 4: Table of index values ...................................................................................................... 45

Appendix 5: Table of population trends for nine sea-ice associated species .................................. 50

5

Executive Summary

Duetothecomplextemporaldynamicsofwildlifepopulationsandfishstocks,long-termmonitoringdatameasuringchangeinpopulationtrendsisanecessaryandrevealingwaytotracktheeffectofenvironmentalchangesonwildlife.

TheArcticSpeciesTrendIndex(ASTI)tracksthetemporalabundancein890populationsof323vertebratespecies.Thisrepresentsanupdateoftheindexfirstreportedonin2010(McRaeet al.2010)andshowsthataveragespeciespopulationabundanceintheArctichasincreasedoverthetimeperiodbetween1970and2007.Thispattern,however,isnotconsistentamongregionsasvertebrateabundancehasincreasedonaverageinthelowArcticbutnotinthehighArcticandsubArctic.ThemarinecomponentoftheASTIshowsagreaterincrease–andevidenceispresentedthatthetrendsinmarinespeciesaredrivingthepan-Arcticindex.Themarinetrendvariesaccordingtotaxonomicclassandoceanbasin,amongothervariables.

Marinemammalpopulationsincreasedonaveragebutthereisaneedtointerprettherecoveryinnumbersinthecontextofthe1970baseline,assomepopulationsstillremainheavilydepletedafterhistoricaloverexploitation.RecentdeclineswereobservedintheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandsforsevenspecies:belugawhale,Stellersealion,harbourseal,seaotter,Pacificwalrus,northernfurseal,andgraywhale.Thereasonsforthepopulationdeclinesarenotuniformforallspecies;theassociatedthreatsincludeoverharvesting,increasedpredation,lossofsummerseaice,anddepletedpreyresource.

MarinebirdindicesshoweitherstableordecliningtrendsdependingontheArcticregioninquestion.Climatechange,exploitation,andinvasivespeciesareanthropogenicthreatsthathavebeenlinkedwithnegativetrendsforsomeofthesepopulations—buttheremayalsobeaninfluencefromnaturalchangesinenvironmentalandforagingconditions,especiallyaffectingpiscivorousspecies,particularlyintheBeringSeaandAleutianIslands.

ThefishdatasetwasdominatedlargelybybenthicandcommerciallyfishedspeciesfromtheBeringSea.AmongfishpopulationstherewereincreasesinthePacificandArcticbasinsofthestudyarea,possiblyduetoincreasesinseasurfacetemperaturesobservedinregionssuchastheBeringSeainthe1970sand1980s.TheaveragetrendinsevenpelagicfishspeciesshowedavariablepatternandwasfoundtohaveastrongassociationwithsimilartrendsintheArcticOscillation.

Populationsthatwereaffectedbyatleastoneanthropogenicthreatshowedanoverallincreasingtrendfrom1970to2005–buttheupwardtrendwasduetoincreasesinabundancethatoccurredinthefirst15yearsofthatperiod.Incontrast,populationsnotidentifiedasbeingunderthreatincreasedfour-foldoverthe35-yearperiod.

Forbirdpopulations,therewasadifferenceintrenddependingonwhetherthepopulationwaslocatedinsideoroutsideaprotectedarea.Onaveragethoseoutsideprotectedareasdeclinedslightlyinabundance,whichcouldbedueinparttounsustainableharvestingofseabirdsinsomelocations,butmoreinformationisneededinordertotestthismorefully.

ThemarinedatasetisdominatedbyfishspeciesandbypopulationsfromtheBeringSeawhich,attimes,havealargeinfluenceonsomeofthesub-indices.ThecurrentspatialextentofmonitoringneedstobeimprovedtobetterrepresentregionsandspeciesclassesacrossthemarineArctic.

6

Introduction

TheArcticisoneoftheregionsintheworldexperiencingthemostrapidvisibleandmeasurablechangesinitsclimateandenvironment(ACIA2005;Stroeveet al.2007).Asagloballyimportantareaforbiodiversity,itisvitalthataccuratewildlifemonitoringsystemsareinplacetomeasurehowspeciesintheArcticarereactingbothspatiallyandtemporallytodifferenttypesandmagnitudesofpressure.

Evaluatingtrendsinspeciesabundanceisoneofthemostrevealingwaystoexaminebroad-scalepatternsofbiodiversitychange.TheArcticSpeciesTrendIndex(ASTI),developedforthispurpose,usespopulationtimeseriestrenddatafromvertebratespeciesfrom1970untilthepresentday.ThefirstreportonArcticspeciestrends(McRaeet al.2010;www.asti.is)revealedthattrendsinArcticvertebratesshowanoverallincreaseinabundanceovera34-yearperiod.Furtheranalysisrevealedthatthispatternwasnotconsistentwithinregions,systemsorgroupsofspecies.Incontrasttopatternsintheterrestrialenvironment,marinevertebratepopulationsfromthisregionshowincreasingtrendsinabundanceonaveragesince1970(McRaeet al.2010).Althoughthistrendslowedinratefrom1986,theoverallresultsuggeststhatby2004a53%increaseinabundanceofArcticmarinevertebrateshadoccurredcomparedtoabaselineyearof1970.DisaggregationofthemarinedatasetintotaxonomicandregionalresultsacrosstheArcticindicatethattheremaybedisparityinabundancetrends(McRaeet al.2010).

Oneoftheprincipalweaknessesofrelyingonanon-stratifiedmonitoringnetwork,whichmustbeovercometoprovidethebestpossibleindicatorsofaggregatedpopulationtrend,isthedominanceofparticulardatasetsduetotheimbalanceinmonitoringfocus(e.g.,moremonitoringofcommerciallyexploitedspecies)andtheimbalanceindistributionofmonitoringsites(Bohmet al.2012).ThemarinecomponentoftheASTIdataset,forexample,issomewhatdominatedbypopulationtimeseriesofincreasingtrendfromtheBeringSeaandAleutianIslands.Itislikelythatspeciesfromtheselocationsaredrivingthemarineandthepan-Arcticindexwhilstmaskingotherimportanttrends.

TheimportanceofobtainingaclearpictureandimprovingunderstandingofbiodiversitytrendsintheArcticmarineenvironmentcannotbeoverstated.AwealthofresearchintoenvironmentalpatternsintheArcticmarineenvironmentoverrecentyearshasbroughttolightchangesinmarinesystems,bothcyclicalandlong-term,andalsointeractionsamongspeciesthatoccurinthissystem.Recentresearchshows,forexample,impactsonbiodiversityofdeclinesinsea-iceextent(e.g.,Heide-Jørgensenet al.2010;Kovacset al.2010);warmingseasurfacetemperaturesinareassuchastheBeringSeaandpossibleeffectsonspecies(e.g.,Coyleet al.2007;Stabenoet al.2007;Ironset al.2008);and,trophicinteractionsandcascadesthatcanoccurasaresultofenvironmentalchangesinthemarinehabitat(e.g.,Stempniewiczet al.2007;Anthonyet al.2008).

Inlightofthesechanges,furtherinvestigationoftheunderlyingtrendsinthemarineindexarenowneededtoestablishwhethertheincreasingtrendiscommontoallmarinespeciesandregionsandalsotoputtheseresultsinthecontextofenvironmentalchangesintheArcticseas.Inordertoexplorethis,wepresentanumberofsub-indicesshowingtrendsingroupsofmarinevertebratepopulationsdisaggregatedtaxonomically,geographically,ecologically,andaccordingtodifferenttypesofconservationmanagement.Finally,variablesfromthesecategoriesweretestedinrelationtopopulationtrends,usingsingletrendvaluesbasedonthetotalrateofchangeforeachpopulation.Thisgaveustheoptiontolookforsignificantfactorsinpredictingmarinepopulationtrends(seeAppendix1:Methodsfordetails).

7

Results and Discussion

Pan-Arctic update

Followingdatacollection,timeseriesupdates,andremovalofredundantdatasets,theASTIwasupdatedtocover323speciesmonitoredthrough890populations(Table1).Thisisanadditionof17speciessincethefirstASTIreport(McRaeet al.2010),increasingtherepresentationofArcticvertebratespeciesfrom35%to37%(Figure1).Notethatapopulation,forthepurposesoftheASTI,isdefinedbyadatasetofannualmeasuresofabundanceofonespeciesfromaspecificlocation.

Species Populations

Mammals Birds Fishes Total Mammals Birds Fishes Total

Terrestrial 30 132 - 162 182 256 - 438

Freshwater 1 44 14 59 3 64 75 142

Marine 22 34 55 111 60 152 98 310

Total (unique species) 53 201 69 323 245 472 173 890

DuetoalargenumberofdataupdateswewereabletoextendtheoriginalASTIbyanotherthreeyearstocovertheperiod1970to2007(the2010ASTIincludeddataonlyto2004).Thisshowsthattherelativelystabletrendatthepan-Arcticlevelthatwasevidentin2004continueduntil2007.PlottingASTIvaluesoverthefulltimeperiod(Figure2)showsthatvertebrateabundancetrendsincreasedfrom1970until1990whentheindexstabilised,remainingaroundthe1.2indexvaluelevel(20%abovethebaseline)fortherestofthetimeseries.

HighArcticspeciesdeclinedfrom1970tothemid-1990sandthenremainedfairlystable(Figure3);lowArcticspeciesaccountformostoftheoverallincreaseinabundanceinthefirsttwodecades,withthetrendlevellingoffinthemid-1990s.SubArcticspeciesincreasedfrom1970tothemid-1980sandthendeclinedatasteadyrate.ThethreeyearsofdataaddedinthisupdateoftheASTI(2005to2007)showmarkeddifferencestotheprecedingfewyears:adownwardtrendforlowArcticspeciesandanupward

Table1.NumberofspeciesandpopulationsintheASTITheupdatedASTIcoversatimeperiodof1970to2007.

Figure1.Datacoveragebytaxonomicclass.

BlackbarsrepresenttheproportionofArcticspeciesforeachclassforwhichpopulationdataareavailable

8

trendforhighArcticspecies.Thesechangescanceleachotheroutwhenallspeciesarecombined(Figure2).ThisistooshortatimetointerpretasasignificantchangeandpointsouttheimportanceoffrequentupdatesoftheASTI.

Figure2.Indexofabundancefor323Arcticvertebratespecies(890populations),from1970to2007.Thefigureplotsthe95%confidenceintervalsandthenumberofpopulationscontributingtoeachyearoftheindex*.The2007indexvalueis1.19.

*Confidenceintervalsarenotshownintheremainingfigurestomaintainclarityofthegraphs.ThevaluescanbefoundinAppendix4:Tableofindexvalues

Figure3:IndexofabundanceforArcticvertebratespeciesfrom1970to2007groupedbyhigh,lowandsubArctic.

Polar bear. Photo: Wild Arctic Pictures/Shutterstock.com

9

Marine results

Overview

TheArcticmarinedatasetcontainsatotalof111speciesand310populationtimeseries(Table2)from170locations(Figure4).Speciescoverageisabout34%ofArcticmarinevertebratespecies(100%ofmammals,53%ofbirds,and27%offishes)(Bluhmet al.2011).Atthespecieslevel,eventhoughtherepresentationofArcticfishspeciesislowerthanthatofmammalsandbirds,thedataaredominatedbyfishes,primarilyfromthePacificOcean(especiallytheBeringSeaandAleutianIslands).However,therearemorepopulationtimeseriesintotalforbirdspecies,whichisreflectiveofthisgroupbeingbothbetterstudiedhistoricallyandalsomonitoredatmanysmallstudysitescomparedtofishandmarinemammalspecies,whichareregularlymonitoredatamuchlargerscalethroughstockmanagement(Table2).Notethatthetimespanselectedformarineanalysesis1970to2005(comparedwith1970to2007fortheASTIforallspecies,asdiscussedabove).

Figure4.SpatialdistributionofmarinepopulationdatacollectedThesizeofthecircledenotesthenumberofpopulationtimeseriesfromthatlocation.Forgreaterclarityinthedivisionofpopulationsbyoceanregion,theArcticOceanbasemapareausedforallanalysesisshowninpink.

10

Species Populations

Mammals Birds Fishes Total Mammals Birds Fishes Total

Pacificbasin 13 22 40 75 32 59 62 153

Atlanticbasin 2 13 7 22 3 25 16 44

Arcticbasin 15 22 15 52 25 68 20 113

Total (unique species) 22 34 55 111 60 152 98 310

Populationdataspannedtheyears1950to2011.However,thegreatestcontiguousperiodofdataacrossallspeciesliesbetween1970and2005.Thisdictatedthetemporallimitssetforthemarineindex.

TheArcticmarineindex(bluelineinFigure5)showsaverysimilartrendtotheindexforallArcticvertebrates,exhibitinganincreasingtrenduntil1990andverylittlesubsequentchange.Incontrast,theindexforterrestrialvertebratespeciesshowsverydifferentpattern,withlittlechangeuptoabout1990,followedbyaslowdecline.ThissuggeststhatthemarinespeciesaredrivingtheoverallArcticindex(seealsoMcRaeet al.2010).

Figure5.IndicesofabundanceforArcticvertebratespecies,groupedbymarineandterrestrialspecies,1970to2005.

Datasetsformarine:111species,310populations

Kittewakes on sea ice. Photo: Gail Johnson/Shutterstock.com

Table2.NumberofArcticmarinespeciesandpopulationsbyoceanbasinandclassMarineanalysescoverthetimeperiod1970to2005.

11

Baselines

Theconceptofbaselinesiscriticaltointerpretingananalysissuchastheonereportedhere.Currenttrendsinmarineecosystemsneedtobeinterpretedagainstasolidunderstandingofthemagnitudeanddriversofpastchanges(Lotze&Worm2009).Duetothelackofwidespreadabundancedatapre-1970,theapproachtakenhereistosetthebaselinetotheyear1970(Lohet al.2005).However,anunderstandingofthehistoricalchangesinthesystemcouldlikelyyieldadifferentinterpretationandthuscautionisneededwhenreferringtotheoverallchangeinanindexfrom1970to2005.

Forcertainpopulationsthathaveincreasedinabundancesince1970,itcanbemeaningfultoputthepositivetrendintoanhistoricalcontext.Anthropogenicthreatssuchasexploitationmayhavehadanimpactonpopulationsizebeforethistimeandhencetherecovery,althoughpositive,maynotbeequivalenttothedeclinethatoccurredpreviously.Sometechniquesarebeingdevelopedtotrytoreconstructhistoricalbaselines,specificallyformarinespecies(Lotze&Worm2009),inordertoobtainamoreaccuratepictureofaspecies’currentconservationstatusandasguidelinesforfutureecosystemrestoration.

ThisconceptisparticularlypertinenttothemarinemammalsoftheArcticastherehasbeenalongestablishedpracticeofsubsistenceandcommercialhuntingofmanyspeciesandseverepopulationreductionsofsomespeciesfromhistorical,unsustainablecommercialwhalingSomemarinemammalpopulationshaveincreaseddramatically—positivenewswhencomparingtrendsagainsta1970baselineyear.However,manypopulationsareunlikelytohaveincreasedbacktohistoricalhighs(Alteret al.2007;Lotze&Worm2009;Wadeet al.2011).Forexample,researchonEschrichtius robustus(graywhale)fromtheeasternPacificsuggestedthat,whileabundancehasincreaseddramatically,thewhaleshave,atbest,recoveredto28-56%oftheiroriginalabundancelevels(Alteret al.2007).SimilarfindingshavebeendocumentedforpopulationsofOdobenus rosmarus(Greenlandwalrus)(Witting&Born2005),thewesternArcticpopulationofbowheadwhale(Georgeet al.2004),andforthehighlycommercialGadus morhua(Atlanticcod)(Rosenberget al.2005).

Supply vessel entering Appilatoq, Greenland. Photo: Gentoo Multimedia Ltd./ Shutterstock.com

Fishing nets. Photo: jele/Shutterstock.com

12

Taxonomic trends

Themarinedatasetisdominatedbyfishspecies(Table2)andaseachspeciestrendisequallyweightedwithintheindex,thismeansthatthisgroupcarriesthemostweightintheoverallindex.Acloserlookatsub-indicesofeachtaxonomicgroupsupportsthishypothesisastrendsinmarinefishincreaseduptoanindexvalueof2.6overthe35-yearperiod(Figure6).Marinemammalsalsoshowedanupwardtrend.Bothmammalandfishindicesincreasedtoamuchgreaterdegreethantheindexforbirds,whichdisplayedaslowerincreasingtrendto1984,thenremainedstable,withindicationsofaslowdeclinestartingafter1998.

Figure7showstheinfluenceofeachtaxonomicgroupbyplottingthemarineindexwiththesequentialremovalofbirds,mammals,andfishes.Mammalsareindicativeoftheoverallmarineindex—theirremovalfromtheanalysisresultsinlittlechangetothetrendline.Themagnitudeoftheinfluenceofbirdandfishtrendsappearstobelargelythesame,butinoppositedirections.Thepresenceofbirdtrendsreducestheoverallincreaseandthepresenceoffishtrendsraisesit.

Figure6.Indicesofabundancebytaxonomicclass,1970to2005.Indicesareaveragedforbirds(34species,152populations),fishes(55species,98populations),andmammals(22species,60populations).

Figure7.Effectsoftheremovalofeachclassonthemarineindicesofabundanceweightedatthespecieslevel.

13

Overall,thetaxonomicresultssuggestthattherehasbeenanaverageincreaseinabundanceamongstArcticmammalspecies.Oneexplanationisthattheyhaveincreasedinabundanceoverthistimeperiodfollowingsharpdeclinesrelatedtohistoricaloverharvesting(seediscussiononthispointinBaselinesectionabove).MammalspeciesincreasedinabundanceinallthreeregionsofthemarineArctic—Pacific,Arctic,andAtlantic(resultsoftheanalysisgroupedbyoceanregionnotdisplayed).MarinemammalpopulationtrendsareillustratedinmoredepthwhenwefocustheanalysisontheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandregionaspartoftheregionaltrendssection.

Marinebirdpopulationshavenotincreasedbythesamemagnitudeasmammalsandfishes(Figure6).Theincreaseinbirdabundancestabilisesaround1984andin1998startsshowingadecline.Theoverallpicturesuggeststhattheabundanceofmarinebirdswasgreaterin2005comparedto1970butwaslesserthanthatin1998.Thisrecenttrendmayindicatethestartofalongertermdeclinesoitwillbeimportanttomonitorthisoverthecomingyearsandtoinvestigatewhatmaybedrivingthesetrends.

Recentstudieshaveshownthatpopulationtrendsinsomebirdspeciesmaybeinfluencedbychangesinclimateandsea-iceextent,astheseenvironmentalconditionsdictatetheavailabilityoffoodandthereforebirdabundance,whichcanhavesubsequentindirecteffectsonthecompositionoftheterrestrialcoastalenvironment(e.g.,Stempniewiczet al.2007).Forexample,somepopulationdeclinesresearchershaveobservedinpiscivorousseabirdsarethoughttobeduetochangesinforagingconditionsdeterminedbywintersea-ice(Byrdet al.2008)andalinkhasbeenestablishedbetweenchangesinsea-surfacetemperatureacrosstheArcticanddeclinesinseabirdcolonyproductivity(Ironset al.2008).Thisisdiscussedfurtherintheecologicaltrendssectionaspartoftheanalysisontrophiclevel.

Marinefishshowalargeoverallincreaseinabundancewhichpredominantlyoccurredinthe20-yearperiodbetween1970and1990(Figure6).Thetrendsinfishspeciesarecontributingmoretothepositivetrendinthemarineindexthantheothertwoclasses(Figure7),sotheseresultsstronglysuggestthatanoverallincreaseinfishabundanceoccurredoverthe35-yearperiod.

Identifyingthedriversbehindthischangeinabundanceiscomplexasthedatasetcomprisesabroadrangeofspeciesthatcouldberespondingdifferentlytovaryingdegreesofclimatic,ecological,and

Guillemots. Photo: Ewan Chesser/Shutterstock.com

Fish feeding on zooplankton. Photo: Mareano Institute of Marine Research

14

managementpressures.Commercialexploitationisamoreimportantfactorinfishpopulations(moresothanformostbirdandmammalpopulations),withalittleoverhalfthefishspeciesinthisdatasetbeingcommerciallyexploited.Thefishdatasetcontainsalargenumberofbenthicspecies(two-thirdsofthepopulations).Thismeansthatthedatasetforfishissomewhatdominatedbytheinfluenceofcommercialexploitationandtheemphasisonbenthicfishes.

Populationtrendsarenotnoticeablydifferentaccordingtoaspectsoffishecologysuchastrophiclevelandhabitat(seeEcologicaltrendssection).Finally,regionaldifferenceswerenoticeableinfishpopulationtrends,mostnoticeablyintheAtlanticOceanwheretheaveragechangewasacontinuedandunabateddecline(Appendix4:Tableofindexvalues).Thispatternisalsoevidentintheregionaldisaggregationoftheentiremarineindex,theunderlyingtrendsofwhicharediscussedinthefollowingsection.

Regional trends

Threeregions:weredefinedPacific,Arctic,andAtlantic(seeFigure4forboundaries)toevaluateregionaltrendsinmarinepopulationabundance.Theseregionsvaryaccordingtoecologicalprocessesanddifferentmanagementandpoliticalpressures.

Bird,mammal,andfishtrendsineachoftheseregionswereexaminedinordertohelpinterprettheresultswefound.Theresultsoftaxonomicanalysesforeachregiondidnotproducereliableindices,largelyduetothesmallsizeofeachdataset,sotheyhavenotbeenincludedinthisreport.However,theinfluenceofbirds,mammalsandfishineachregionisreferredtointhediscussionbelow.

Thethreeoceanicregionsdifferedsignificantlyinaveragepopulationtrend(Figure8andAppendix2:TableofANOVAresults).Thisdifferenceseemstobelargelydrivenbyvariationinfishpopulationabundance—therewerenosignificantregionaldifferencesforbirdsormammals.Figure9showsthesignificantdifferencesinratesofpopulationchangeamongtheoceanregions(F=9.32,df=2,p=0.00),highlighting,atthepopulationlevel,thedecliningtrendintheAtlantic,smallaverageincreaseintheArctic,andlargestpositivechangeinthePacificOcean.ThepronouncedincreaseinthePacificOceanindexisnotasapparentwhenlookingatthemeanratesofchangeanditislikelythattheindexisbeing

drivenbyafewrapidlyincreasingmammalandfishspecies.This,andthecleardifferencesintrendsamongtheoceanbasins,particularlyfrom1975to1995,canbeexploredfurtherbylookingatpatternsintheBeringSeaandAleutianIslands(Box1).

TrendsintheAtlanticOcean,thesmallestdatasetofthethreeArcticregions,aredrivenpredominantlybyfishandbirds.Arcticclimate-drivenregimeshiftsarethoughttohaveoccurredintheNorthAtlantic(Greeneetal.2008)butduetobothnorthwardandsouthwardmovementofspeciesinresponsetothechangingconditions,teasingouthowthismighthaveaffectedoverallabundancetrendsisanalyticallycomplex.Onepossibilityisthatchangestoenvironmentalconditionsmayoperateintandemwithexploitationeffectstofacilitateapopulationdecline.Alternatively,theycouldimpedeanoverexploitedspecies’recovery,assuggestedforthecaseofAtlanticcod(Beaugrandet al.2008).IntheArcticOceanindex,theincreasefrom1987isdrivenbyfishandmammalspeciesasthebirdtrendsarelargelystableacrossthetimeseries(Appendix4:Tableofindexvalues).

The Arctic Ocean. Photo: George Burba/Shutterstock.com

15

Figure8.Indicesofabundancebyoceanregion,1970to2005.IndicesareaveragedfortheArcticOcean(52species,113populations),AtlanticOcean(22species,44populations),andthePacificOcean(75species,153populations).

Figure9.Boxplotshowingthemedianannualrateofchangeoffishspeciesineachoceanicregionfrom1970to2005

Datasets–ArcticOcean:20populations;AtlanticOcean:16populations;PacificOcean:62populations.

Boxplotinterpretation:thehorizontallinesarethemedians;thetopsandbottomlinesoftheboxesrepresentthe75thand25thpercentilesrespectively;thetopandbottomend-pointstotheverticaldashedlinesrepresentthe95thand5thpercentilesrespectively.

Totallambdaisameasureoftherateofchangeovertheentiretimeperiod.

Sea otter. Photo: TTphoto/Shutterstock.com

16

Themarineindexshowsanoverallincreaseinvertebrateabundancefrom1970to2005butthespatialdistributionofthepopulationtimeseriescontributingtotheindexisnotuniformacrosstheArcticmarineenvironment(Figure4).MuchofthecurrentmonitoringeffortappearstobelargelyclusteredaroundtheBeringSeaandAleutianIsland(BSAI)area.Thenumberofpopulationsfromthisregion(n=138),whichisasubsetofthePacificOceandataset,outweighsthenumberofpopulationsfromtheArcticOcean,AtlanticOcean,andtherestofthePacificOceanindividually,butnotcombined(n=172).

InordertoinvestigatetheextenttowhichpopulationsfromtheBSAIdrivetheoverallmarineindextrend,thepopulationsfromthisregionwereanalysedseparately.Theresults(Figure10)suggestthatabundancetrendsfromtheBSAIdoexertalargeinfluenceonthemarineindex,particularlyfrom1985to1995,butthatanincreaseinabundanceisstilloccurringintheremainingmarineregionscombined.

AcloserexaminationoftheBSAIregion(Figure11)revealsthatfishandmammaltrendsshowanoverallincrease,whereasbirdtrendsshowanoveralldecline.Anoverallcauseofthedecliningbirdtrendisnotevidentasthepresenceandnatureofthreatsvaryamongbirdspecies.Evenwithinspecies,identifyingprecisecausesofdeclineissometimescomplicatedbyspatialandtemporalfluctuationsoccurringsimultaneously(Byrdet al.2008).OneexampleofaspeciesfromthisregionindeclineisRissa brevirostris(Red-leggedkittiwake).Theeffectsofasubstantialfisheriesindustrymediatedthroughhabitat

disturbanceordisruptionofthefoodwebareapossiblecauseofdecline(Byrdet al.1997).EarlydeclinesofseabirdsintheAleutianislandsinthe20thcenturywerethoughttobeduetofoxpredation(Crollet al.2005)butitisunclearwhetherthiswouldbethemajordriveroftrendsafter1970.

Bering Sea effect

Figure10.IndicesofabundanceformarinepopulationsshowingtheeffectofremovingtheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandpopulations.BSAIdatasetscomprised71species,138populations.

Northern fur seal. Photo: VasikO/Shutterstock.com

17

Themarinemammalincrease(Figure11)isnotconsistentacrosstheentiretimeperiod,withadefinitiveshiftindynamicstoadeclinein1988,whichcontinuesuntil2005.Thisisaresultofincreasingpopulationtrendsforsixcetaceanspeciesforwhichmonitoringendedin1989andhighlightstheimportanceofimplementinglong-termmonitoringtoavoidbreaksindatasetsthatcaninfluencetheindextosuchadegree.Ifthesesixcetaceanpopulationsareremovedfromthedataset,theindexshowsanoveralldeclineinabundanceof43%from1970to2005.Thisconstantdeclineintrendisreflectiveofthefollowingspecies:belugawhale,Stellersealion,harbourseal,seaotter,Pacificwalrus,northernfurseal,graywhale–forreasonsincludingincreasedpredation(Doroffet al.2003),lossofsummerseaice(Kovacset al.2010),anddepletedpreyresource(Mooreet al.2003),(Trites&Donnelly2003).

FishspeciesfromtheBSAI,onaverage,increasedinabundancefrom1970to1993(Figure11)andthistrenddrivestheoverallfishindexand,toacertainextent,themarineindex.Anotherbroadscalestudy(Hoff2005)alsofoundpositivechangesinbiomassintheeasternBeringSeashelfforallfishguildsinthe1970sand1980s.Thissuggeststhatfavourableenvironmentalconditionsarelikelytoberesponsiblefortheincreases.Thechangeintrendafter1993toadeclineandthentoastabletrendcouldbeduetolowproductivityobservedingroundfishintheeasternBeringSeaduringthe1990s(Mueter&Megrey2005).

Figure11.IndicesofabundanceformarinepopulationsfromtheBeringSeaandAleutianIslandregion(BSAI)forbirds,fishesandmammals

BSAIdatasets–birds:21species,54populations,fishes:37species,53populations,mammals:13species,31populations

Steller sea lions. Photo: Caleb Foster/Shutterstock.com

18

Ecological trends

Sea ice association

RecentchangesinseaiceextentintheArctichavebeenwelldocumented(Stroeveet al.2007;Polyaketal.2010)andthereisevidenceemergingthatthisrapidshiftishaving,attimes,adverseeffectsonbiodiversity(Gleason&Rode2009;Heide-Jørgensenetal.2010;Kovacsetal.2010).Thenatureofaspecies’associationwithseaiceisimportantandvariesfromtheavailabilityoficealgaeasthebasisofthefoodwebstotheprovisionofsuitablehabitatforbreedingandforuseasahuntingplatform(Marz2010).

TheASTIdatasetcontainspopulationtrendsforninespeciesthathaveastrongassociationwithseaice(Arcticcod,ivorygull,thick-billedguillemot,bowheadwhale,belugawhale,narwhal,Pacificwalrus,ringedseal,polarbear).Thedatasetforseaiceassociatedspecieswasnotsufficienttoproduceanoveralltrendindexduetoalargevariationintimeserieslengthsforeachspecies,aswellasdiscontinuousperiodsofmonitoring.Lookingatthepopulationtrendsovertheentiretimeperiodforeachspecies,fourice-associatedspecies—ringedseal,belugawhale,Pacificwalrusandthick-billedguillemot—showedoveralldeclinesinabundance(alowerpopulationattheendofthemonitoringperiodthanatthebeginning).Thereweremixedtrendsamongthe36populations(Figure12)butjustoverhalfshowedanoveralldecline.Inlightofthepaucityofavailabledataandthewarningsignofanumberofnegativetrends,thereisclearlyanurgentneedtomonitorthesekeyArcticspecies.

Figure12:Knownstatusofindividualpopulationsfornineiceassociatedmarinespecies.

Forabreakdownbyspeciesandpopulations,seeAppendix5:Tableofpopulationtrendsfornineseaiceassociatedspecies.

Note:thestatusshownforPacificwalrusrepresentsthedecliningtrendinrecentdecades(1980to2006)whichfollowedaperiodofincrease–thetrendovertheentiretimeperiodofmonitoringwasanincrease.

Sea ice associated seal. Photo: Irina Igumnova/Shutterstock.com

19

Regime shift

Environmentalchangesinthemarinesystemareprojectedtoleadtoashiftinspeciescompositionfrombenthictopelagic—thisisthoughttooccurinresponsetowarmerseasurfacetemperatures(Richter-Menge&J.Overland2010)andassociatedreductioninsummerseaiceextent.Weinvestigatedthisbyassigningeachspeciestothebenthic,pelagicorbenthopelagicmarinezone(seeAppendixTable1-Bfordefinitions).Lookingatthefishspeciesbrokendowninthisway(Figure13)providesnoevidenceofsuchashift.Bothbenthicandpelagicspeciesexhibitedanoverallincreaseinabundance,withthepelagicfishesshowingadistinctcyclicalpatternthroughoutthetimeseries.Thiscyclicalpatterncouldbeconcomitanttochangesoccurringinthemarineenvironmentinsimilarcycles.Thesixspeciesofbenthopelagicfishalsoincreasedinabundancefrom1970,butthisincreasecontinuedonlyuntilabout1998,whenalargelydecreasingtrendbeganandpersisteduntil2005.Withonlysevenspeciesofpelagicfishinthedataset,thetrendcouldbedrivenbyasmallnumberofthesespecies.Naturalresourcemanagementmayalsohaveaneffect,especiallyconsideringthatsomeofthesespeciesareofhighcommercialimportance(Box2).

Figure13.Indicesofabundanceforbenthic,pelagic,andbenthopelagicfishspeciesfrom1970to2005.

Datasetscomprised

• benthicfishes:42species,63populations;

• pelagicfishes:7species,14populations;

• benthopelagicfishes:6species,21populations.

Arctic ciso drying in the sun. Photo: Rumo/Shutterstock.com

Arctic char. Photo: Dan Bach Kristensen

20

Pelagic fish trends

TobetterunderstandtheapparentcyclicpatterndeterminedforthepelagicfishasshowninFigure13,wecomparedtheoverallpelagicfishindextotheestablishedclimateoscillations(Pacific,Decadal,Arctic,andNorthAtlantic).FromthisanalysisthereappearedtobeastrongassociationbetweentheoverallpelagicfishindexwiththeArcticOscillationindexwithpeaksinthepelagicindexin1977,1983,1993,2002,and2009generallytrackingthepeaksintheArcticOscillation.Atthiswidespreadscale,therefore,theredoesappeartobealink(Figure14).

However,itisimportanttorelatethepatterntohabitatindicatorsthatauthorshaveidentifiedassignificantfactorsinthesurvivalandthusproductivityofpelagicspecies.Forexample,authors(NPFMC2008)notethatPacificherringrecruitmentintheTogiakherringpopulation(BristolBay,Alaska)ishighlyvariable,withlargeyearclassesoccurringatintervalsofbetweennineand10years.Further,thereisgoodevidencethatenvironmentalconditions—especiallyairandsea-surfacetemperature—relativetospawnruntimingareimportantfactorsindeterminingPacificherringrecruitmentintheBeringSea(Williams&Quinn2000).

PotentialdriversofherringpopulationchangewereexaminedinrelationtotheTogiakherringdataset(NPFMC2008).Theindicatorslookedatwere:sea-surfacetemperature(NOAA2011);summerbottomtemperature(Richter-Menge&J.Overland2010);meanannualtemperature(GeophysicalInstituteUniversityofAlaskaFairbanks2011);seaicecover(Richter-Menge&J.Overland2010).Thesewereallhighlyvariableanddidnotappeartopeakonanineto10yearcycleasissuggestedintheestimatedherringpopulationsize.Asanexample,seaiceextent(plottedonathreeyearrunningaverage)isshown(Figure15).Thiswastheclosestamongthevariablesto

Figure14.ComparisonofthethreeyearrunningaverageforthepelagicfishindexandtheArcticOscillation

Oscillationdatafrom:http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/ao.data

Herring. Photo: fanfo/Shutterstock.com

21

relatetoestimatesofpopulationabundanceofherringintheTogiakregionandillustratesthatthedriversbehindtheherringcyclesarenotabletobeexplainedbyasingleindicatorbutareinfluencedbyacomplexoffactors.

(Aydin&Mueter2007))provideacomprehensiveoverviewofthecomplexinteractionsthatmayberesponsiblefortheobservedcyclicalfishpopulationtrendsinthesoutheasternBeringSea.TheyreportthattheBeringSeahasexperiencedabruptshiftsinclimaticconditionssincethemid-1970swithassociatedfoodwebshifts.Theextentofseaiceandtimingoficeretreatiscriticalfortiming,overallbiomass,andfateofprimaryproduction—whichcomprisesmostlycopepods,animportantcomponentofpreyforvariousforagingfishspecies.Differencesinbloomtiminghavefavourableeffectsoneitherbenthicorpelagicspecies.Cyclesofdensity-dependentrecruitmentofvariousshorter-livedpelagicspecies,suchaspollockarealsolikelytointeractwiththecyclesinlonger-lived,competitorbenthicspeciessuchasflatfish.

Anotherfactornotincorporatedintheseabioticindicatorsishumanharvest.TheBeringSeaisoneofthemostproductivefisheriesintheworld(Walshet al.1989)anditsstockshaveexperiencedalonghistoryofexploitation,sothepossibleinfluenceoffishingpressureshouldalsobeconsidered.ThePacificherringpopulationdiscussedaboveisconsideredtobethreatenedbyexploitation(NPFMC2008).Whileoverfishingislikelytodirectlycauseadecreaseinabundanceofafishedspecies,thefishingpressureexertedonastockcouldalsohaveamorecomplexeffect.Fishingeffortandcatchintheregionarecloselymonitored,andadjustmentsaremadetoquota,basedonpastrecruitmentinthetargetspecies.Itispossiblethatthisadjustmentoffishingpressureinresponsetorecruitmentcouldinfluencecyclicalpatternsobserved(Williams&Quinn2000).Furthermore,humanpressurescanandwillinteractincomplexwayswiththeclimaticchangesobservedintheBeringSea.ThisanalysisisagoodexampleofhowaglobalscaleindexsuchasASTIcanrevealrelationshipswithkeydriversofspeciesabundancewhenthisisnotpossiblethroughfocussingonindividualpopulations.Thelatterapproach,however,isimportantinbetterunderstandingthemechanisms:howlarge-scaleoscillationsexertthemselvesonbiodiversityandabundanceandhowfactorsnotincorporatedintosimpleglobalindicesimpactlocalpopulations.

Figure15.ComparisonofestimatedherringpopulationsizeintheBristolBayareaandtheseaiceextentintheEastBeringSea

Bothplottedasthreeyearrunningaverages.HerringdatafromNPFMC(2008);seaicedatafromhttp://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard

22

Trophic level

Pursuingthethemeofecologicalinteractions,Figure16showstheaverageratesofchangebrokendownbythetrophiclevelofthespecies.Wemightexpecttoseedifferencesamongthetrophiclevelsinresponsetoenvironmentalfluctuationsandthecorrespondingchangesinforagingconditions.Forexample,impactsspecifictopiscivorousseabirdshavebeenexploredunderscenariosofachangingclimate(Stempniewiczet al.2007).Therefore,wedisaggregatedthedataforbirdsandfishesintofish-feedingandplankton-feedingspeciestoseeiftherewereanypatternsintheratesofchange.

Figure17comparestheresultingtrendsinfishandplanktonfeedingfishandbirds.Thereisnocleardifferenceintrendsamongthefishgroupsbutthebirdindicesdiffersignificantlyafter1985.Unlikethefish,thetrendsinpiscivorousbirdsareinconcordancewiththemediannegativerateofchangeforallsecondaryconsumersoffish(Figure16).Thebirdpopulationdeclinesinthisdatasetcouldbearesultofdetrimentalchangestoforagingconditionsasfoundinsomespeciesandlocations(Byrdet al.2008)oraresponsetoananthropogenicthreat.Thebirdpopulationsinquestionareaffectedbydifferentthreattypesandlevels,soitisnotpossibletomakeanyoverarchingconclusionsaboutthedeclineinpiscivorousseabirdsatthisstage.

Figure16.Boxplotshowingmedianrateofchangebytrophiclevelforparasitesandforprimary,secondary,andtertiaryconsumers

Datasets–parasites:4populations;primaryconsumers(Prim):2populations;secondaryconsumersoffish(Sec-fish):183populations;secondaryconsumersofinvertebrates(Sec-inv):68populations;secondaryconsumersofothervertebrates(Sec-vert):9populations;tertiaryconsumers(Tert):44populations.

Boxplotinterpretation:thehorizontallinesarethemedians;thetopsandbottomlinesoftheboxesrepresentthe75thand25thpercentilesrespectively;thetopandbottomend-pointstotheverticaldashedlinesrepresentthe95thand5thpercentilesrespectively.

Totallambdaisameasureoftherateofchangeovertheentiretimeperiod

Figure17.Trendsinabundanceindicesforspeciesofpiscivorousandplanktivorousbirdsandfishesfrom1970to2005

Datasets

• piscivorousbirds:22species,116populations;

• piscivorousfishes:26species,44populations;

• planktivorousbirds:4species,17populations;

• planktivorousfishes:15species,25populations.

23

Theunderlyingtrendsfortertiaryconsumerscontrastwiththecommonthemethroughouttheseresultsofdeclinesinbirdpopulationsandincreasesinmammalsandfish(Appendix2:TableofANOVAresults).ThetwoeaglespeciesinthiscategoryshowanaverageincreasewhereasthepopulationsofOrcinus orca (killerwhale)andUrsus maritimus(polarbear)showanaveragedecline.ThefishdatasetisthelargestinthetertiaryconsumercategoryandisdominatedbyGadus morhua(Atlanticcod),Sebastes marinus(Oceanperch)andReinhardtius hippoglossoides(Greenlandhalibut)populationswhicharedrivingthemeanpopulationrateofchangeinthisgroup.Themajorityofpopulationsofthesespeciesarethreatenedbyexploitationsoitisnotsurprisingthattherateofchangefortertiaryfishandtheoverallaverageforthethreeclassesisnegative(Figure16).

Conservation management trends

Anthropogenic threats

Examininganthropogenicthreatstomarinepopulationscangiveanindicationofthepredominantpressuresaffectingspeciesabundance.Forthisanalysis,populationsthathadananthropogenicthreatidentifiedasbeingassociatedwiththembytheauthorsofthesourcedocumentwereconsideredtobeunderthreat.Optionsforthreatcategoryare:‘habitatloss’,‘habitatdegradation’,‘climatechange’,‘disease’,‘pollution’,‘exploitation’,and‘invasivespecies’.Notethat‘exploitation’,whichincludesaccidentalmortalityaswellasharvesting,isthereforeonlyassociatedwithapopulationifitisidentifiedasathreattothepopulationbythesourceauthor.Populationsthatweredescribedasnotcurrentlythreatenedwereplacedinthe‘nothreats’categoryandtheremainingoneswithnoinformationweretaggedas‘unknown’(seedatatagginginAppendix1:Methods).

Figure18showsthat,althoughencouraginglyboththreatenedandnon-threatenedpopulationsincreasedinabundanceoverthe35-yearperiod,thetrajectoriesofthetwoindicesaresubstantiallydifferent.Inaddition,thepopulationsunderthreatstabilisedinabundanceduringthemid-1980sandhavebeeninaslowdeclineeversince.Thepopulationsinthe‘unknown’categoryhaveseenlittlechangeinabundanceoverthistimebutappeartobefaringslightlyworsethanthethreatenedpopulations.Thishighlightstheneedtoobtainmoreinformationonthesedata-poorspeciesandlocations.

Figure18.Indicesofabundanceforpopulationsbythreatclassificationfrom1970to2005

Datasets

• populationsunderanyanthropogenicthreat:57species,110populations;

• populationsundernothreat:42species,57populations;

• thoseforwhichnoinformationisavailable:49species,143populations

24

Forthosepopulationsthatareidentifiedasthreatened,‘climatechange’and‘exploitation’appeartobehavingthegreatesteffectonmedianrateofchange(Figure19).Theseresultsaresignificant;howevertheanalysisincludesdataforpopulationswherethreatinformationisnotknown.Whenthe‘unknown’andthe‘nothreat’categoriesareexcludedfromtheanalysisandthemedianratesofchangearecomparedbytaxonomicclass,thereareonlysignificantdifferencesbythreattypeforbirdpopulations(Appendix4:Tableofindexvalues).Anegativerateofchangeisobservedforpopulationsthreatenedby‘climatechange’and‘exploitation’,whichsuggeststhatbirdsaredrivingtheresultsforallclassesinFigure19.

Informationonthreatswascollatedfromthedatasourceswherethepopulationdatawaspublished.Becausethescopeandobjectivesofeachsourcedocumentvariedaccordingtothesubjecttheauthorsweretackling,thereissomedisparityintheamountofthreatinformationthatisavailableforeachpopulation.TomakebetteruseoftheASTIintrackingandunderstandingtheimpactsofthesethreatstoArcticbiodiversity,itisthereforeimportanttoimprovenotonlytheanimalpopulationdata,butalsothequality,comparability,andcoverageofdataonthreatstopopulations.Variablesthatcanbeusedtopredictchangesinpopulations,includingmeasuresofanthropogenicthreats,arediscussedfurtherinareportonspatialanalysisoftheASTIdataset(Bohmet al.2012).

Protected areas

Table3showsthenumberofpopulationsthatoccurwithinprotectedareas(‘yes’),entirelyoutsideprotectedareas(‘no’),andnotentirelywithinorwithoutprotectedareas(‘no–largesurveyarea’).Thetrendanalysiscomparingprotectedandunprotectedpopulationsshowedverysimilarlevelsofpopulationchange(Appendix4:Tableofindexvalues).Theprotectedpopulationsaremainlybirdspecieswhichwouldsuggestthatdataareprimarilyfromcoastallocations.Mostofthemarinemammalandfishpopulations,however,aresurveyedinsuchlargeareasthatnoneofthemareentirelyprotected.

Located within a protected area?

Populations

Mammals Birds Fishes

yes 21 95 4

no 7 30 12

no-largesurveyarea 27 21 82

total“no” 34 51 94

Figure19.Boxplotshowingthemedianratesofchangeofbirdpopulationsforwhichathreatisidentified,groupedbyprimarythreat,1970to2005.

Datasets–threatstobirdpopulations:climatechange(CC):12populations;disease:1population;exploitation(exploit):4populations;habitatdegradation(habdeg):7populations;invasivespecies(inv):1population;pollution:3populations.

Boxplotinterpretation:thehorizontallinesarethemedians;thetopsandbottomlinesoftheboxesrepresentthe75th

and25thpercentilesrespectively;thetopandbottomend-pointstotheverticaldashedlinesrepresentthe95thand5thpercentilesrespectively.

Totallambdaisameasureoftherateofchangeovertheentiretimeperiod.

Table3.Totalnumbersofpopulationsandspeciesthatarefoundinsideandoutsideprotectedareas

25

Althoughtheoverallindicesofpopulationchangeforvertebrateswithinprotectedareasandvertebratesnotwithinprotectedareasaresimilar,ifwelookonlyatbirdpopulationsbirdpopulationsinprotectedareasarefaringfarbetterthantheircounterpartsinunprotectedareas(Figure20).BirdpopulationsinunprotectedareaswerefoundprimarilyalongthewestandnortheastcoastofIceland,theMurmanskandTaimyrregionsofRussia,andthenorthernpartofNorway,includinglocationsintheBarentsSea.Someoftheseregionshavealongtraditionofutilisingseabirdpopulations(Denlinger&Wohl2001),althoughthenumberofspeciesutilisedandamountofharvesttakenareoftenonlyafractionofformerlevels(Merkel2010).HuntingisstrictlyregulatedinNorwayandSvalbardandposesnoparticularthreat(Bakken&Anker-Nilssen2001).InRussia,Alcidscanbehuntedlocallyatparticulartimesoftheyear,withnohuntingallowedatseaintheBarentsSearegion(Golovkin2001).

Onepotentialcauseofdecline(especiallyinpastdecades)ofmarinebirdsnotinprotectedareasisthewidespreadutilisationofmarinebirdsthroughouttheArctic(Merkel&Barry2008).AroundtheArctic,themostcommonspeciesharvestedareCommonmurresandCommoneiders,andthecountrieswiththehighestharvestlevelsareIceland,Canada,andGreenland(Merkel2010).Thefollowingsectionconsiderstwomeasuresrecordedforeachpopulationtimeseriesinthedataset:1)isthepopulationknowntobeutilised(throughregularorsystematicharvesting,includingcollectionofeggs);and,2)isthepopulationthoughttobeimpactedbyexploitation(includingbothharvestingandaccidentalkilling,forexamplethoughentanglementinfishingnets).

TheharvestofseabirdsusedtobewidespreadinNorwayandSvalbardbutnowadaysstrictregulationsandyear-roundprotectionofmostspeciesresultinaverylowharvestrateofanaverageof5,000birdsperyear,thereforenotposingaparticularthreat(Merkel&Barry2008).Ofthe11Norwegian

Female and male common eiders. Photo: Micha Klootwijk/Shutterstock.com

Figure20.Indicesofabundanceforprotectedandunprotectedbirdpopulationsfrom1970to2005.

Dataset

• protected:30species,95populations;

• unprotected:17species,51populations.

26

populations,onlytwoarethreatenedbyexploitation(Steller’seiderfromVarangerfjord,andCommonmurrefromFinnmark),butnotbeingatargetspeciesandwithnoindicationofbeingutilisedcouldpointtoapotentialimpactfromoutsidethecountry.InRussia,seabirdharvesthasneverbeenofprimaryimportancefortheeconomyorlocalcommunities,withtheexceptionofindigenouspeopleinhabitingthenorthandfareastofthecountry(Merkel&Barry2008).Noofficialfiguresontheharvesttakenannuallyexist,buttheyarebelievedtobelow,asmostoftheimportantbirdcoloniesarenowprotected(Merkel&Barry2008).Nevertheless,poachingcouldbealocalizedproblem,especiallyinremoteareas(Merkel&Barry2008).OftheRussianpopulationsinthedataset,nonearerecordedasbeingutilisedandonlySteller’seiderisconsideredtobethreatenedbyexploitation.However,asthisisacountry-wideestimate,over-harvestingisunlikelytobethesinglereasonfortheobserveddeclineinbirdsinunprotectedareas.

Onethirdofpopulationsinthedatasetareexplicitlynotutilised;weonlyhaveinformationconfirmingutilisationforonepopulation,whichisSomateria mollissima(commoneider)fromsouthwestIceland.Theutilisationstatusforotherpopulationsisunknown.Interestingly,threedifferentpopulationsofblackguillemotandnorthernfulmararelistedasbeingthreatenedbyexploitation,althoughthisisthroughbycatchandnotintentionalharvesting.

Overall,thereisnoevidencetosuggestthatunsustainableharvestcouldbethecauseofdecliningtrendsinseabirdpopulationsoutsideofprotectedareasintheArctic.Butasthemajorityofpopulationdatasetsarenotaccompaniedbyinformationonutilisationstatusoronexploitationasapotentialthreat(thesesourcesareinlanguagesotherthanEnglish),thisremainsapossibilityandcouldbefurtherexploredbyimprovingthedataonutilisationandexploitationandonfocussingtheanalysisonspeciesthataretargetedforharvestorarevulnerabletootherformsofexploitation.

Acknowledgements

Wewouldliketothankandacknowledgeallofthedatacontributorstothe2010ASTIreport(McRaeet al.2010).WewouldalsoliketothankJoRocheandHannahMacGregorforenteringnewdata,andTomBarryandMichaelSvobodaforreviewingthereportandfortheirhelpfulcommentsandsuggestions.FinallywewouldalsoliketoacknowledgeEnvironmentCanadaandtheCAFFSecretariatforprovidingfundsforthisreport.

Bird cliff. Photo: Maksimilian/Shutterstock.com

27

References

Aars,J.,Lunn,N.J.&Derocher,A.E.(2005)Polarbears:Proceedingsofthe14thWorkingMeetingoftheIUCN/SSCPolarBearSpecialistGroup.IUCN,Gland,Switzerland,Cambridge,UK,Seattle,Washington,USA.

ACIA(2005)ArcticClimateImpactAssessment.pp.1042.CambridgeUniversityPress,Cambridge,UK.Allen,B.M.&Angliss,R.P.(2010)Alaskamarinemammalstockassessments,2009.NOAA Technical

Memorandum NMFS-AFSC-206.Alter,S.E.,Rynes,E.&Palumbi,S.R.(2007)DNAevidenceforhistoricpopulationsizeandpastecosystem

impactsofgraywhales.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,104,15162-15167.Angliss,R.P.&Outlaw,R.B.(2006)Bowheadwhale(Balaena mysticetus):WesternArcticstock.Alaska

Marine Mammal Stock Assessments, 2006.(ed.NOAA’sNationalMarneFisheriesService),pp.181-187.NationalMarneFisheriesService,Alaska.

Angliss,R.P.&Outlaw,R.B.(2008)Belugawhale(Delphinapterus leucas):CookInletstockandgraywhale(Eschrichtius robustus):EasternNorthPacificstock.AlaskaMarineMammalStockAssessments,2007(ed.NOAA’sNationalMarineFisheriesService),pp.79-83and147-155.NationalMarineFisheriesService.,Alaska.

Anker-Nilssen,T.,Bakken,V.,Strom,H.,Golovkin,A.,Bianki,V.&Tatarinkova,I.(2000)ThestatusofmarinebirdsbreedingintheBarentsSearegion.pp.140.NorskPolarinstitutt.

Anthony,R.G.,Estes,J.A.,Ricca,M.A.,Miles,A.K.&Forsman,E.D.(2008)BaldeaglesandseaottersintheAleutianArchipelago:Indirecteffectsoftrophiccascades.Ecology,89,2725-2735.

Aydin,K.&Mueter,F.(2007)TheBeringSea–adynamicfoodwebperspective.Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography,54,2501-2525.

Bakken,V.&Anker-Nilssen,T.(2001)HarvestingofseabirdsinNorthNorwayandSvalbard.Seabird Harvest Regimes in the Circumpolar Nations - CAFF Technical Report No. 9(eds.L.Denlinger&K.Wohl),pp.37-39.CircumpolarSeabirdWorkingGroup,CAFFInternationalSecretariat.

Beaugrand,G.,Edwards,M.,Brandner,K.,Luczak,C.&Ibanez,F.(2008)Causesandprojectionsofabruptclimate-drivenecosystemshiftsintheNorthAtlantic.Ecology Letters,11,1157-1168.

Bluhm,B.A.,Gebruk,A.V.,Gradinger,R.,Hopcroft,R.R.,Huettmann,F.,Kosobokova,K.N.,Sirenko,B.I.&Weslawski,J.M.(2011)Arcticmarinebiodiversity:anupdateofspeciesrichnessandexamplesofbiodiversitychange.Oceanography,24,232-248.

Bohm,M.,McRae,L.,Deinet,S.,Gill,M.&Collen,B.(2012)ArcticSpeciesTrendIndex:TrackingtrendsinArcticvertebratepopulationsthroughspaceandtime.CAFF Assessment Series No. 8.ConservationofArcticFloraandFauna,Iceland.

Byrd,G.V.,Schmutz,J.A.&Renner,H.M.(2008)ContrastingpopulationtrendsofpiscivorousseabirdsinthePribilofIslands:A30-yearperspective.Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography,55,1846-1855.

Byrd,G.V.,Williams,J.C.,B,A.Y.&Vyatkin,P.S.(1997)TrendinpopulationsofRed-leggedKittiwakeRissa brevirostris,aBeringSeaendemic.Bird Conservation International,7,167-180.

CAFF(2008)CAFFsCircumpolarSeabirdGroup–IvoryGull.CAFFTechnicalreport.Collen,B.,Loh,J.,Whitmee,S.,McRae,L.,Amin,R.&Baillie,J.E.M.(2009)Monitoringchangein

vertebrateabundance:theLivingPlanetIndex.Conservation Biology,23,317-327.Collen,B.,McRae,L.,Deinet,S.,DePalma,A.,Carranza,T.,Cooper,N.,Loh,J.&Baillie,J.E.M.(2011)

Predictinghowpopulationsdeclinetoextinction.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences,366,2577-2586.

COSEWIC(2004)COSEWICassessmentandupdatestatusreportonthenarwhalMonodon monocerosinCanada.pp.vii+50.CommitteeontheStatusofEndangeredWildlifeinCanada,Ottawa.

Coyle,K.O.,Bluhm,B.,Konar,B.,Blanchard,A.&Highsmith,R.C.(2007)AmphipodpreyofgraywhalesinthenorthernBeringSea:Comparisonofbiomassanddistributionbetweenthe1980sand2002-2003.Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography,54,2906-2918.

Croll,D.A.,Maron,J.L.,Estes,J.A.,Danner,E.M.&Byrd,G.V.(2005)Introducedpredatorstransformsubarcticislandsfromgrasslandtotundra.Science,307,1959-1961.

28

DeMaster,D.P.,Lowry,L.F.,Frost,K.J.&Bengtson,R.A.(2001)Theeffectofseastateonestimatesofabundanceforbelugawhales(Delphinapterus leucas)inNortonSound,Alaska.Fisheries Bulletin,99,197-201.

Denlinger,L.&Wohl,K.(2001)Seabirdharvestregimesinthecircumpolarnations.CAFF Technical Report No. 9,pp.65.CircumpolarSeabirdWorkingGroup,CAFFInternationalSecretariat.

Derocher,A.E.,Garner,G.W.,Lunn,N.J.&Wiig,O.(1997)IUCNSSCpolarbears.ProceedingsoftheTwelfthWorkingMeetingoftheIUCN/SSCPolarBearSpecialistGroup.

Doroff,A.M.,Estes,J.A.,Tinker,M.T.,Burn,D.M.&Evans,T.J.(2003)SeaotterpopulationdeclinesintheAleutianArchipelago.Journal of Mammalogy,84,55-64.

Dragoo,D.E.,Byrd,G.V.&Irons,D.B.(2000)Breeding status and population trends of Alaskan seabirds in 1999.BreedingstatusandpopulationtrendsofAlaskanseabirds.(ed.U.S.FishandWildlifeService).U.S.FishandWildlifeService.

Dragoo,D.E.,Byrd,G.V.&Irons,D.B.(2008)Breedingstatus,populationtrendsanddietsofseabirdsinAlaska,2005.(ed.USFishandWildlifeService).Homer,Alaska.

Falk,K.&Kampp,K.(1997)Amanualformonitoringthick-billedmurrepopulationsinGreenland.pp.90pp.Pinngortitaleriffik/GrønlandsNaturinstitut/GreenlandInstituteofNaturalResources,Nuuk.

FisheriesandOceansCanada.(2005)RecoverypotentialassessmentofCumberlandsound,UngavaBay,EasternHudsonBayamdSt.Lawrencebelugapopulations(Delphinapterus leucas).Sci. Advis. Rep.2005/036(ed.DFOCan.Sci.Advis.Sec.).FisheriesandOceansCanada.

Froese,R.&Pauly,D.(2011)FishBase.Garner,G.W.(1995)Pacificwalruses.Our living resources: a report to the nation on the distribution,

abundance, and health of U.S. plants, animals, and ecosystems.(ed.E.T.LaRoe,G.S.Farris,C.E.Puckett,P.D.Doran,andM.J.Mac,eds.),pp.Chapter:Ecoregions-Alaska.U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior,NationalBiologicalService,Washington,DC.,WashingtonD.C.

Garoarsson,A.&Zocker,C.(2006)Nylegarbreytingarafjoldaislenskrabjargfugla(SeabirdsIceland).Bliki,27,13-22.

Gaston,A.J.,Bertram,D.F.,Boyne,A.,Chardine,J.,Diamond,A.W.,Gilchrist,H.,G.,Hipfner,J.M.,Lemon,M.J.F.,Mallory,M.L.,Montevecchi,W.A.et al.(2008a)SeabirdTrendsfortheArcticArchipelagoEcozone(Plus).Ecosystem Status and Trends Report,pp.3.

Gaston,A.J.,Bertram,D.F.,Boyne,A.,Chardine,J.,Diamond,A.W.,Gilchrist,H.,G.,Hipfner,J.M.,Lemon,M.J.F.,Mallory,M.L.,Montevecchi,W.A.et al.(2008b)SeabirdtrendsfortheHudsonandJamesBayandFoxeBasinEcozone(Plus)Ecosystem Status and Trends Report,pp.2.

GeophysicalInstituteUniversityofAlaskaFairbanks(2011)BristolBayregion(http://climate.gi.alaska.edu/history/bristol.html).

George,J.C.C.,Zeh,J.,Suydam,R.&Clark,C.(2004)Abundanceandpopulationtrend(1978-2001)ofWesternArcticBowheadwhalessurveyednearBarrow,Alaska.Marine Mammal Science,20,755-773.

Gleason,J.S.&Rode,K.D.(2009)Polarbeardistributionandhabitatassociationreflectlong-termchangesinfallseaiceconditionsintheAlaskanBeaufortSea.Arctic,62,405-417.

Golovkin,A.(2001)SeabirdharvestinRussia.Seabird Harvest Regimes in the Circumpolar Nations - CAFF Technical Report No. 9 (edsL.Denlinger&K.Wohl),pp.40-42.CircumpolarSeabirdWorkingGroup,CAFFInternationalSecretariat.

Greene,C.H.,Pershing,A.J.,Cronin,T.M.&Ceci,N.(2008)ArcticclimatechangeanditsimpactontheecologyoftheNorthAtlantic.Ecology,89,S24-S38.

Griffiths,W.B.,Fechhelm,R.G.,Gallaway,B.J.,Martin,L.R.&Wilson,W.J.(1998)AbundanceofselectedfishspeciesinrelationtotemperatureandsalinitypatternsintheSagavanirktokDelta,Alaska,followingconstructionoftheEndicottCauseway.Arctic,51,94-104.

Heide-Jørgensen,M.P.,Laidre,K.L.,Borchers,D.,Marques,T.A.,Stern,H.&Simon,M.(2010)Theeffectofseaicelossonbelugawhales(Delphinapterusleucas)inWestGreenland.Polar Research,29,198-208.

Hoff,G.R.(2005)BiodiversityasanindexofregimeshiftintheeasternBeringSea.Fishery Bulletin,104,226-237.

29

Irons,D.B.,Anker-Nilssen,T.,Gaston,A.J.,Byrd,G.V.,Falk,K.,Gilchrist,G.,Hario,M.,Hjernquist,M.,Krasnov,Y.V.,Mosbech,A.et al.(2008)Fluctuationsincircumpolarseabirdpopulationslinkedtoclimateoscillations.Global Change Biology,14,1455-1463.

IUCN(2001)Polarbearnumbers,southernBeaufort.pp.DatasentbyMikeGill(CBMP),.IUCN&UNEP-WCMC(2010)TheWorldDatabaseonProtectedAreas(WDPA):Annualrelease[online].

Cambridge,UK:UNEP-WCMC.IUCN/SSCPolarBearSpecialistGroup(2010)Polarbearsub-populationtrenddata.pp.Datasentby

MikeGill(CBMP).Kovacs,K.,Lydersen,C.,Overland,J.&Moore,S.(2010)Impactsofchangingsea-iceconditionson

Arcticmarinemammals.Marine Biodiversity,1-14.Krasnov,Y.V.,Matishov,G.G.,Galaktionov,K.V.&Savinova,T.N.(1995)SearookerybirdsofMurman.Spb.

Nauka,pp.224.Loh,J.,Green,R.E.,Ricketts,T.,Lamoreux,J.F.,Jenkins,M.,Kapos,V.&Randers,J.(2005)TheLivingPlanet

Index:usingspeciespopulationtimeseriestotracktrendsinbiodiversity.Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B,360,289-295.

Lotze,H.K.&Worm,B.(2009)Historicalbaselinesforlargemarineanimals.Trends in Ecology & Evolution,24,254-262.

Marz,S.(2010)Arcticseaiceecosystem:Asummaryofspeciesthatdependonandassociatewithseaiceandprojectedimpactsfromseaicechanges.CAFF.

McRae,L.,Zöckler,C.,Gill,M.,Loh,J.,Latham,J.,Harrison,N.,Martin,J.&Collen,B.(2010)ArcticSpeciesTrendIndex2010:TrackingtrendsinArcticwildlife.CAFF CBMP Report No. 20(ed.CAFFInternationalSecretariat).Akureyri,Iceland.

Merkel,F.&Barry,T.(ed.)(2008)SeabirdharvestintheArctic.CAFFInternationalSecretariat,CircumpolarSeabirdGroup(CBird),CAFF Technical Report No. 16.

Merkel,F.R.(2010)Seabirdharvest,indicator#19.Arctic Biodiversity Trends 2010: Selected Indicators of Change.CAFFInternationalSecretariat,Iceland.

Michalsen,K.(2004)Havetsressurser2004.Fisken og havet, særnr. 1-2004.Havforskningsinstituttet.MMC,M.M.C.(2002)CookInletbelugawhale(Delphinapterus leucas).Marine Mammal Commission

Annual Report,pp.58-63.Moore,S.E.,Grebmeier,J.M.&Davies,J.R.(2003)Graywhalesdistributionrelativetoforagehabitat

inthenorthernBeringSea:Currentconditionsandretrospectivesummary.Canadian Journal of Zoology,81,734-742.

Mueter,F.J.&Megrey,B.A.(2005)Distributionofpopulation-basedindicatorsacrossmultipletaxatoassessthestatusofGulfofAlaskaandBeringSeagroundfishcommunities.ICES Journal of Marine Science: Journal du Conseil,62,344-352.

NOAA(2010a)Pacificwalrus(Odobenus rosmarus divergens):AlaskaStock.Alaska Marine Mammal Stock Assessments, 2009(eds.B.M.Allen&R.P.Angliss).

NOAA(2010b)Polarbear(Ursus maritimus):Chukchi/Beringseasstock.Alaska Marine Mammal Stock Assessments, 2009(eds.B.M.Allen&R.P.Angliss).

NOAA(2011)BeringClimate(www.beringclimate.noaa.gov/data).NationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration.

NOAAFisheries:OfficeofProtectedResources(1999)Belugawhale(Delphinapterus leucas):EasternChukchiSeastock.(ed.NOAA’sNationalMarneFisheriesService),pp.67-70.

NPFMC(2008)NorthPacificFisheryManagementCouncil,ecosystemconsiderationsfor2009.Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO) and the School of Aquatic and Fishery,pp.77-80.

Obbard,M.E.,McDonald,T.L.,Howe,E.J.,Regehr,E.V.&Richardson,E.S.(2007)PolarbearpopulationstatusinsouthernHudsonBay,Canada.(ed.U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior).U.S.GeologicalSurvey,Reston,Virginia:2007.

Polyak,L.,Alley,R.B.,Andrews,J.T.,Brigham-Grette,J.,Cronin,T.M.,Darby,D.A.,Dyke,A.S.,Fitzpatrick,J.J.,Funder,S.,Holland,M.et al.(2010)HistoryofseaiceintheArctic.Quaternary Science Reviews,29,1757-1778.

30

RDevelopmentCoreTeam(2006)R:Alanguageandenvironmentforstatisticalcomputing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing,Vienna,Austria.

Richter-Menge,J.&J.Overland(2010)Arcticreportcard2010.NOAA.Rosenberg,A.A.,Bolster,W.J.,Alexander,K.E.,Leavenworth,W.B.,Cooper,A.B.&McKenzie,M.G.(2005)

Thehistoryofoceanresources:Modelingcodbiomassusinghistoricalrecords.Front Ecol Environ,3,84–90.

Stabeno,P.J.,Bond,N.A.&Salo,S.A.(2007)OntherecentwarmingofthesoutheasternBeringSeashelf.Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography,54,2599-2618.

Stempniewicz,L.,Blachowiak-Samolyk,K.&Weslawski,J.M.(2007)Impactofclimatechangeonzooplanktoncommunities,seabirdpopulationsandArcticterrestrialecosystem–Ascenario.Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography,54,2934-2945.

Stiansen,J.E.&Filin,A.A.(2008)JointPINRO/IMRreportonthestateoftheBarentsSeaecosystemin2007,withexpectedsituationandconsiderationsformanagement.IMR-PINRO Joint Report Series 2008(1),pp.185pp.InstituteofMarineResearch,Bergen,Norway.

Stirling,I.(2002)PolarbearsandsealsintheeasternBeaufortSeaandAmundsenGulf:Asynthesisofpopulationtrendsandecologicalrelationshipsoverthreedecades.Arctic,55,59-76.

Stirling,I.,McDonald,T.L.,Richardson,E.S.&Regehr,E.V.(2007)PolarbearpopulationstatusintheNorthernBeaufortSea.(ed.U.S.DepartmentoftheInterior).U.S.GeologicalSurvey,Reston,Virginia:2007.

Stroeve,J.,Holland,M.M.,Meier,W.,Scambos,T.&Serreze,M.(2007)Arcticseaicedecline:Fasterthanforecast.Geophysical Research Letters,34.

Trites,A.W.&Donnelly,C.P.(2003)ThedeclineofStellersealionsEumetopias jubatusinAlaska:Areviewofthenutritionalstresshypothesis.Mammal Review,33,3-28.

U.S.FishandWildlifeServiceMarineMammalsManagement(2002)Polarbear(Ursus maritimus):Chukchi/Beringseasstock.Stock Assessment Reports.

Wade,P.R.,Kennedy,A.,LeDuc,R.,Barlow,J.,Carretta,J.,Shelden,K.,Perryman,W.,Pitman,R.,Robertson,K.,Rone,B.et al.(2011)Theworld’ssmallestwhalepopulation?Biology Letters,7,83-85.

Walsh,J.J.,McRoy,C.P.,Coachman,L.K.,Goering,J.J.,Nihoul,J.J.,Whitledge,T.E.,Blackburn,T.H.,Parker,P.L.,Wirick,C.D.,Shuert,P.G.et al.(1989)CarbonandnitrogencyclingwithintheBering/ChukchiSeas:SourceregionsfororganicmattereffectingAOUdemandsoftheArcticOcean.Progress In Oceanography,22,277-359.

Williams,E.H.&Quinn,T.J.(2000)Pacificherring,Clupea pallasi,recruitmentintheBeringSeaandnorth-eastPacificOcean,II:Relationshipstoenvironmentalvariablesandimplicationsforforecasting.Fisheries Oceanography,9,300-315.

Witting,L.&Born,E.W.(2005)AnassessmentofGreenlandwalruspopulations.ICES Journal of Marine Science,62,266-284.

31

Appendix 1: Methods

Population data

TimeseriestrendsforArcticspecieswerecollatedbyCAFF´sCBMPandfromtheLivingPlanetDatabase(Lohet al.2005;Collenet al.2009;www.livingplanetindex.org).Thesedatawerecollatedfrompublishedscientificliterature;onlinedatabases;Arcticresearchersandinstitutions;andfromgreyliterature.

FollowingCollenet al.(2009)datawereonlyincludedif:

• measureorproxymeasureofpopulationsize–e.g.,fullpopulationcount,biomass,catchperuniteffort,density(AppendixTable1-A)-wasavailableforatleast2years;

• informationwasavailableonhowthedatawerecollectedandwhattheunitsofmeasurementwere;

• thegeographiclocationofthepopulationwasprovidedandlaywithinthedefinedArcticboundaries;

• thedatawerecollectedusingthesamemethodonthesamepopulationthroughoutthetimeseries;and,

• thedatasourcewasreferencedandtraceable.

Data type Mammals Birds Fish Total

Biomass 68 68

Measureperuniteffort 1 9 10

Populationsestimateorcount 34 86 9 129

Other 25 66 12 103

Data tagging

Ancillaryinformationtothetimeseriesdatawasalsocollatedatboththespeciesandpopulationlevelencompassingdataongeographic,ecologicalandconservationmanagementthemes.ThosetagsusedtodisaggregatethemarinedataaredetailedinAppendixTable1-B.

Appendix Table 1- A.Datatypeofpopulationsbyclass

Northern fulmar Photo: David Thyberg/Shutterstock.com

32

Data tag Details

System Terrestrial; Freshwater; Marine

Populationbased

Marineocean Atlantic;Pacific;Arctic

Primarythreat Informationontheprimaryanthropogenicthreattoapopulationwasrecordedifavailablefromthedatasource.Optionsforthreatcategoryarehabitatloss,habitatdegradation,climatechange,disease,pollution,exploitation,invasivespecies,nothreats,unknown

Protectedarea Yes;No(entirelyoutsideprotectedareas);No–largesurveyarea(populationwassurveyedinalargeareaandsonotentirelyinsideoroutsideaprotectedarea).TheWorldDatabaseonProtectedAreaswasusedtodiscernprotectedareastatus(IUCN&UNEP-WCMC2010)

Seaiceassociation Yes;No

Speciesbased

Trophiclevel Parasite;Primaryconsumer;Secondaryconsumer(fish);Secondaryconsumer(invertebrates);Secondaryconsumer(vertebrates);Tertiaryconsumer

Marinezone Benthic(livingandfeedingnearthebottomoftheocean);pelagic(livingandfeedingintheopensea);benthopelagic(livingandfeedingnearthebottomoftheoceanaswellasinmidwaterandnearthesurfaceorspecieswhichhoverorswimjustovertheseafloor–(Froese&Pauly2011))

Taxonomicclass Birds;mammals;fish(asthereareonlythreeElasmobranchspeciesinthedataset,wegroupedthesewithActinopterygiitocreateonefishclass)

Trend analysis

ForthemarineASTI,datawereaveragedatthespecieslevel(equalweightperspecies).ANOVAanalyses,however,wereconductedatthepopulationlevel.

AllanalyseswerecarriedoutinRversion2.12.0(RDevelopmentCoreTeam2006).IndicesofchangeinmarinespeciesabundancewerecalculatedusingaGeneralisedAdditiveModelling(GAM)frameworktoobtainpopulationtrendsandthenageometricaggregationmethodfollowingCollenet al.(2009)toproduceanindexofchange.Thedatasetwasdisaggregatedaccordingtothedatatagsabovetolookforunderlyingtrendsinthemarinedata.Inordertotestthesignificanceofseveralvariablesinassociationwithpopulationchange,wefirstcomputedthreemeasuresfromtherawpopulationtrendtimeseriesdata.Thesewere:

• slopeofalinearregressionofyearagainstpopulationsize(LRS);• meanannualchangeinpopulationsizecalculatedusingaGAMframework(MAC);and• totalchangeinpopulationsizeovertimeusingaGAMframework(TC).

Weobtainedthreechangemeasuresforeachpopulationandspeciesbygeneratingtheloggedtrendvaluesandmeanloggedtrendvaluesrespectivelyfromtheindividualpopulationtimeseriescalculatedbyeachofthemethodsabove.WecarriedoutANOVAstotrialeachofthethreemeasuresofpopulationchangeagainsteachofthediscontinuousvariablesandlinearregressionsofpopulationchangeagainsteachofthetwocontinuousvariables.Veryfewsignificantresultswereproducedatthespecieslevelsowehavereportedonlythosesignificantresultsatthepopulationlevel(seeAppendix2:TableofANOVAresults)andaswewereinterestedinthemostvariance,thetrendvalueweselectedtoreportonwasmeasuringtotalchange(TC),alsoreferredtoastotallambdaovertimeaswasusedonsimilaranalyses(Collenet al. 2011).Wedisplayedboxplotsforsignificantresultswhererelevant.

Appendix Table 1- B. Populationandspecies-baseddatatags

33

Appendix 2: Table of ANOVA results

Factor Total lambda

df Sum sq Mean sq F value p value

Class 2 1.387 0.69344 1.5972 0.2041

Primarythreat(inclUnknown/No;allspp) 8 11.893 1.48661 3.6444 0.0004551***

Primarythreat(inclUnknown/No;birds) 8 6.415 0.8019 2.2363 0.02805*

Primarythreat(inclUnknown/No;fish) 4 5.321 1.33028 2.9809 0.02302*

Primarythreat(inclUnknown/No;mammals) 5 4.981 0.9962 2.2612 0.0612300000

Primarythreat(exclUnknown/No;allspp) 5 2.687 0.53738 1.4981 0.1968000000

Primarythreat(exclUnknown/No;birds) 5 4.1466 0.82931 4.3431 0.006696**

Primarythreat(exclUnknown/No;fish) 1 0.1133 0.11331 0.2265 0.6360000000

Primarythreat(exclUnknown/No;mammals) 2 0.1311 0.065545 0.3734 0.6927000000

Protectedlocation 3 2.276 0.75881 1.7538 0.1560

Protectedvsunprotected-allspp(YesandNoonly) 1 1.425 1.42516 3.1105 0.0796

Protectedvsunprotected-birds(YesandNoonly) 1 2.591 2.5911 6.9899 0.009265**

Protectedvsunprotected-fish(YesandNoonly) 1 0.046 0.04597 0.1007 0.7556

Protectedvsunprotected-mammals(YesandNoonly) 1 0.5361 0.53614 0.7003 0.4103

Protectedvsunprotected-allspp(Yes,No,Large=No) 1 0.621 0.62081 1.4107 0.2359

Protectedvsunprotected-birds(Yes,No,Large=No) 1 0.003627 0.003627 4.3371 0.03906*

Protectedvsunprotected-fish(Yes,No,Large=No) 1 0.511 0.51113 1.0595 0.3059

Protectedvsunprotected-mammals(Yes,No,Large=No) 1 0.5509 0.55085 1.1622 0.2859

Oceanbasin 2 7.126 3.5631 8.5762 0.0002375***

Ocean-birds 2 1.974 0.98697 2.6393 0.0748

Ocean-fish 2 7.682 3.8409 9.3222 0.0002011***

Ocean-mammals 2 0.0798 0.03992 0.0793 0.9239

BeringSeasplit(BeringvsRest;allspp) 1 1.376 1.3763 3.1801 0.0755

BeringSeasplit(BeringvsRest;birds) 1 0.086 0.08641 0.225 0.6360

BeringSeasplit(BeringvsRest;fish) 1 1.74 1.74006 3.7052 0.0572

BeringSeasplit(BeringvsRest;mammals) 1 0.0024 0.00238 0.0048 0.9450

Trophiclevel 5 5.285 1.05703 2.4835 0.03176*

Tertiaryconsumerbyclass 2 3.683 1.8415 5.0372 0.01106*

Sea-iceassociation 1 0 0.00005 0.000100 0.9919

Marinezone-benthic,pelagic,benthopelagic 2 2.129 1.06443 2.465400 0.0867

Marinezone-fish 2 3.125 1.56266 3.3972 0.03758*

Marinezone-birds 2 0.001112 0.000556 0.668100 0.5142

Protectedlocation(allspp) 3 2.276 0.75881 1.7538 0.1560

PAtype(all,inclunprotected) 3 1.111 0.37043 0.8487 0.4682

PAtype(yesandbothonly) 3 2.138 0.71253 1.8886 0.1348

Depthstratum 2 2.782 1.391 3.2378 0.04060*

Depthstratum(fish) 1 0.103 0.10285 0.2113 0.6468

Utilised(allspp) 2 0.304 0.15193 0.3471 0.71

Utilised(fish) 2 0.91 0.4551 0.9417 0.39

Highlightedcellsdenotesignificantresults*significantatp<0.05level**significantatp<0.01level***significantatp<0.001level

34

App

endi

x 3:

Lis

t of m

onit

ored

spe

cies

and

loca

tion

s

Clas

sBi

nom

ial

Com

mon

nam

e(s)

Coun

try

Loca

tion

of P

opul

atio

n

Fish

esAl

batr

ossi

a pe

ctor

alis

Giant

gre

nadier

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

a

Anop

lopo

ma

fimbr

iaSa

blefi

shUnite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

a,A

leut

ianIsland

san

dGulfo

fAlask

a

Athe

rest

hes e

verm

anni

Kam

chatka

flou

nder

Unite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

a

Athe

rest

hes s

tom

ias

Arrow

toot

hflo

unde

rUnite

dSt

ates

EastBer

ingSe

aan

dAleut

ianIsland

s

Bath

yraj

a pa

rmife

raAlask

ask

ate

Unite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

a/A

leut

ianIsland

s

Bore

ogad

us sa

ida

Arctic

cod

Unite

dSt

ates

Saga

vanirkto

kDelta

,Alask

a

Nor

way

Bare

ntsh

avet

Brev

oort

ia ty

rann

usHer

ring

Icelan

dIcelan

dicsu

mm

er-spa

wning

her

ring(D

ivisionVa

)

Bros

me

bros

me

Tusk

Icelan

dIcelan

dicsh

elf

Clup

ea p

alla

sii

Pacific

her

ring

Unite

dSt

ates

EastBer

ingSe

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Togiak

districto

fBris

tolB

ay,A

lask

a

Core

gonu

s aut

umna

lisArctic

cisco

Unite

dSt

ates

ColvilleRive

rdelta

Cory

phae

noid

es a

crol

epis

Pacific

gre

nadier

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

a

Cory

phae

noid

es c

iner

eus

Pope

yegre

nadier

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

a

Eleg

inus

gra

cilis

Saffr

oncod

Unite

dSt

ates

Saga

vanirkto

kDelta

,Alask

a

Emba

ssic

hthy

s bat

hybi

usDee

psea

sole

RussianFe

deratio

nNor

ther

nKu

rilIs

land

san

dSo

uthe

aste

rnKam

chatka

Gad

us m

acro

ceph

alus

Pacific

cod

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

aan

dAleut

ianIsland

s

Gad

us m

orhu

aAtla

nticcod

Cana

daNAFO

divisions

2GH,N

orth

ernLa

brad

orcod

sto

ck

Gre

enland

Gre

enland

offs

hore

com

pone

nt

Icelan

dIC

ESD

ivisionVa

(Ice

land

ic)

Cana

daNAFO

2J3

KL

Nor

way

Nor

thEas

tArctic

Gas

tero

steu

s acu

leat

usTh

reesp

ined

stic

kleb

ack

RussianFe

deratio

nGor

elyiIs

land

,Kan

dalaks

haBay

,White

Sea

,Rus

sia

RussianFe

deratio

nSe

ldiana

yaIn

let,Ka

ndalak

shaBa

y,W

hite

Sea

,Rus

sia

Gly

ptoc

epha

lus s

telle

riKo

rean

flou

nder

RussianFe

deratio

nNor

ther

nKu

rilIs

land

san

dSo

uthe

aste

rnKam

chatka

Gly

ptoc

epha

lus z

achi

rus

Rexso

leUnite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianisland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringse

ash

elf

RussianFe

deratio

nNor

ther

nKu

rilIs

land

san

dSo

uthe

aste

rnKam

chatka

35Cl

ass

Bino

mia

lCo

mm

on n

ame(

s)Co

untr

yLo

cati

on o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Hem

ilepi

dotu

s jor

dani

Yello

wIrishlord

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianisland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

ash

elf

Hem

itrip

teru

s bol

ini

Bigm

outh

scu

lpin

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

ash

elf

Hip

pogl

osso

ides

ela

ssod

onFlathe

adsole

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

a

Hip

pogl

osso

ides

pla

tess

oide

sAm

erican

plaice

Cana

daNew

foun

dlan

dre

gion

(3K)

Cana

daNew

foun

dlan

dre

gion

(3Ps

)

Gre

enland

Wes

tGre

enland

Hip

pogl

osso

ides

robu

stus

Berin

gflo

unde

rUnite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

a

Isop

sett

a is

olep

isBu

tter

sole

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

ash

elf

Lepi

dops

etta

bili

neat

aRo

cksole

Unite

dSt

ates

EastBer

ingSe

a

Lepi

dops

etta

pol

yxys

tra

Nor

ther

nro

cksole

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

a

Lim

anda

asp

era

Yello

wfin

sole

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

a

RussianFe

deratio

nW

Kam

chatka

she

lf

Lim

anda

pro

bosc

idea

Long

head

dab

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

ash

elf

RussianFe

deratio

nW

Kam

chatka

she

lf

Lim

anda

sakh

alin

ensi

sSa

kalin

flou

nder

RussianFe

deratio

nW

estK

amch

atka

She

lf

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

ash

elf

Liop

sett

a gl

acia

lisArctic

flou

nder

Unite

dSt

ates

Saga

vanirkto

kDelta

,Alask

a

Mal

acoc

ottu

s kin

caid

iBlac

kfinsc

ulpin

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Mal

lotu

s vill

osus

Cape

linRu

ssianFe

deratio

nBa

rent

sSe

a

Nor

way

Bare

ntsh

avet

Icelan

dIcelan

d-Ea

stG

reen

land

-Jan

May

enare

a

Cana

daNAFO

0to

4

Mel

anog

ram

mus

aeg

lefin

usHad

dock

Icelan

dDivisionVa

(Ice

land

)

Faro

eIsland

sIC

ESD

ivisionVb

(Faroe

)

Nor

way

Nor

thea

stA

rctic

had

dock

(Su

b-area

sIa

ndII)

Mic

rost

omus

ach

neSlim

eflo

unde

rRu

ssianFe

deratio

nNor

ther

nKu

rilIs

land

san

dSo

uthe

aste

rnKam

chatka

36Cl

ass

Bino

mia

lCo

mm

on n

ame(

s)Co

untr

yLo

cati

on o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Mic

rost

omus

pac

ificu

sDov

ersole

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

ash

elf

Myo

xoce

phal

us ja

okPlainsc

ulpin

Unite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

ash

elf

Myo

xoce

phal

us

poly

acan

thoc

epha

lus

Gre

atscu

lpin

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

ash

elf

Myo

xoce

phal

us v

erru

cosu

sW

artyscu

lpin

Unite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

ash

elf

Osm

erus

mor

dax

Atla

nticra

inbo

wsm

elt

Unite

dSt

ates

Saga

vanirkto

kDelta

,Alask

a

Paro

phry

s vet

ulus

Englishso

leUnite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Plat

icht

hys s

tella

tus

Star

ryflou

nder

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

ash

elf

Pleu

rogr

amm

us m

onop

tery

gius

Atk

am

acke

rel

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

RussianFe

deratio

nPe

trop

avlovs

k-Co

mm

ande

rzon

e,offKa

mch

atka

Pe

nins

ula

Pleu

rone

ctes

qua

dritu

berc

ulat

usAlask

aplaice

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

a

RussianFe

deratio

nW

estK

amch

atka

she

lf

Polla

chiu

s vire

nsPo

llock

orS

aith

eFa

roeIsland

sFa

roesa

ithe(D

ivisionVb

)

Icelan

dIcelan

dic(D

ivisionVa

)

Nor

way

Nor

th-Eas

tArctic

saith

e(Sub

-are

asIan

dII).

Rein

hard

tius h

ippo

glos

soid

esGre

enland

halibut

Unite

dSt

ates

EastBer

ingSe

aan

dAleut

ianIsland

s

Nor

way

ICES

Sub

area

sI&

II.

Gre

enland

ICES

vand

xiv

Gre

enland

NW

Atla

ntic

Seba

stes

alu

tus

Pacific

oce

anper

chUnite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Seba

stes

bor

ealis

Shor

trak

erro

ckfis

hUnite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

a/A

leut

ianIsland

s

Seba

stes

mar

inus

Oce

anper

chIcelan

dIcelan

d

Gre

enland

ICES

vand

xiv

Cana

daNAFO

divisions

2J3

K

Nor

way

NEArctic

Seba

stes

men

tella

Dee

pwater

redfi

shNor

way

Nor

weg

ianBa

rent

sSe

aan

dSv

alba

rd

Seba

stes

pol

yspi

nis

Nor

ther

nro

ckfis

hUnite

dSt

ates

Berin

gSe

a/A

leut

ianIsland

s

Som

nios

us p

acifi

cus

Pacific

sleep

ersha

rkUnite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

ash

elf

37Cl

ass

Bino

mia

lCo

mm

on n

ame(

s)Co

untr

yLo

cati

on o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Squa

lus a

cant

hias

Spinydo

gfish

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

ash

elf

Ther

agra

cha

lcog

ram

ma

Walleye

pollock

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Bogo

slof

Island

region

RussianFe

deratio

nEa

stKam

chatka

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nBe

ringSe

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Shelikof

Strait,Gulfo

fAlask

a

RussianFe

deratio

nW

estB

eringSe

a

Trig

lops

scep

ticus

Spec

tacled

scu

lpin

Unite

dSt

ates

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Bird

sAl

ca to

rda

Razo

rbill

Icelan

dHafna

berg

,Sou

th-W

estIce

land

Nor

way

Hjelm

søy,M

åsøy

,Finnm

ark

Icelan

dKr

isuv

ikur

berg

(Kris

uvik),SW

Icelan

d

Icelan

dSk

oruv

ik,N

EIcelan

d

Cepp

hus C

olum

baPige

onG

uille

mot

Unite

dSt

ates

BuldirIsland

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Kasa

toch

iIslan

d,A

lask

a

Cepp

hus g

rille

Blac

kGuille

mot

Unite

dSt

ates

Coop

erIs

land

,Alask

a

Icelan

dFlatey

Island

,Bre

ioafj

orou

rBay

,Nor

thwes

tIce

land

Icelan

dSt

rand

asys

laCoa

stlin

e,N

W-Ic

elan

d

Clan

gula

hye

mal

isLo

ng-tailedDuc

kRu

ssianFe

deratio

nBe

ringIsland

coa

st

Cana

daSo

uthe

rnPlain,S

irmilikNationa

lPar

k,Bylot

Island

,(Q

arlik

turv

ikValley/m

aingo

osene

stingco

lony

)

RussianFe

deratio

nTa

imyrPen

insu

la

Gre

enland

TheKa

rupe

lvValleyPr

ojec

t,TraillO,K

ongOsc

arsFjor

d,

Nor

th-Eas

tGre

enland

Gre

enland

Zack

erbe

rgda

len,N

orth

eastG

reen

land

Frat

ercu

la a

rctic

aAtla

nticPuffi

nRu

ssianFe

deratio

nAy

novIsland

,Mur

man

sk,R

ussia

RussianFe

deratio

nBo

l'sho

yAy

novIsland

RussianFe

deratio

nGav

rilos

kiIs

land

Nor

way

Hor

nøy,Va

rdø,Finn

mar

k

RussianFe

deratio

nMalyAy

novIsland

Nor

way

RostIs

land

s

RussianFe

deratio

nSe

venIsland

s

Frat

ercu

la c

irrha

taTu

fted

Puffi

nUnite

dSt

ates

E.A

matuliIslan

d,A

lask

a

38Cl

ass

Bino

mia

lCo

mm

on n

ame(

s)Co

untr

yLo

cati

on o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Fulm

arus

gla

cial

isNor

ther

nFu

lmar

Unite

dSt

ates

Chow

ietIslan

d,A

lask

a

Icelan

dHafna

berg

,Sou

th-W

estIce

land

Unite

dSt

ates

HallIslan

d,A

lask

a

Icelan

dKr

isuv

ikur

berg

(Kris

uvik),SW

Icelan

d

Cana

daPr

ince

Leo

poldIs

land

,Nun

avut

Icelan

dSk

oruv

ik,N

EIcelan

d

Unite

dSt

ates

StG

eorg

eIsland

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

St.P

aulIslan

d,A

lask

a

Gav

ia p

acifi

caPa

cific

Loo

nUnite

dSt

ates

Yuko

n-Ku

skok

wim

delta

Hal

iaee

tus a

lbic

illa

White

-tailedEa

gle

Finlan

dNor

ther

nFinlan

d

Swed

enNor

ther

nSw

eden

Icelan

dW

estc

oastofIce

land

Hal

iaee

tus l

euco

ceph

alus

BaldEag

leUnite

dSt

ates

Adak

Island

,RatIs

land

gro

up,A

leut

ianIsland

s,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Am

chitk

aIsland

,RatIs

land

gro

up,A

leut

ianIsland

s,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Kisk

aIsland

,And

rean

ofgro

up,A

leut

ianIsland

s,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Tana

gaIs

land

,And

rean

ofgro

up,A

leut

ianIsland

s,Alask

a

Hal

iaee

tus p

elag

icus

Steller's

Sea

Eag

leRu

ssianFe

deratio

nKu

rilsk

oeLak

e,Kam

chatka

His

trio

nicu

s his

trio

nicu

sHar

lequ

inD

uck

RussianFe

deratio

nBe

ringIsland

coa

st

Laru

s arg

enta

tus

Her

ringGull

RussianFe

deratio

nAg

apaRive

rValley,Taim

yr

Icelan

dIcelan

d

Nor

way

Nor

dlan

d(Sor

tland

ssun

det)

Cana

daQue

bec

RussianFe

deratio

nSe

venIsland

s,Mur

man

sk

Laru

s can

usMew

Gull

RussianFe

deratio

nBo

lsho

iAinov

,Mur

man

sk

Nor

way

Pasv

iknatur

rese

rvat,Sør

-Varan

ger,F

innm

ark

RussianFe

deratio

nSe

venIsland

s,Mur

man

sk

Unite

dSt

ates

Yuko

n-Ku

skok

wim

delta

Laru

s gla

uces

cens

Glauc

ous-winge

dGull

Unite

dSt

ates

Bogo

slof

Island

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

BuldirIsland

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Kasa

toch

iIslan

d,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

PualeBa

y,A

lask

a

39Cl

ass

Bino

mia

lCo

mm

on n

ame(

s)Co

untr

yLo

cati

on o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Laru

s gla

ucoi

des

Icelan

dGull

Gre

enland

Nor

dreSt

røm

fjord

Laru

s hyp

erbo

reus

Glauc

ousGull

RussianFe

deratio

nKo

lgue

vIsland

,Rus

sia

Gre

enland

Region

2,c

entralW

estG

reen

land

Gre

enland

Region

3,c

entralW

estG

reen

land

Cana

daSo

uthe

rnPlain,S

irmilikNationa

lPar

k,Bylot

Island

,(Q

arlik

turv

ikValley/m

aingo

osene

stingco

lony

)

Unite

dSt

ates

Yuko

n-Ku

skok

wim

delta

Laru

s mar

inus

Gre

atBlack

-bac

kedGull

Nor

way

Nor

dlan

d(Sor

tland

ssun

det

Gre

enland

Nor

dreSt

røm

fjord

Mor

us b

assa

nus

Nor

ther

nGan

net,Gan

net

Icelan

dAu

stur

svae

oio(Eas

tern

Gro

up)inc

luding

Rau

oinu

pur,

Skor

uvik,a

ndSkr

uour

Icelan

dElde

yIsland

,Sou

thwes

tIce

land

Icelan

dVe

stm

anna

eyjar(

Vestm

anIs

land

s),S

outh

wes

tIce

land

Oce

anod

rom

a fu

rcat

aFo

rk-tailedSt

orm

-pet

rel

Unite

dSt

ates

E.A

matuliIslan

d,A

lask

a

Pago

phila

ebu

rnea

nIvor

yGull

RussianFe

deratio

nFran

zJo

sefL

and

RussianFe

deratio

nVa

rious

inCan

ada,G

reen

land

,Rus

sia,N

orway

(m

idpo

intlatitu

debelow

)

Phal

acro

cora

x ar

isto

telis

Euro

pean

Sha

gNor

way

Sør-Varan

ger,Sø

r-Varan

ger,Finn

mar

k

Icelan

dW

estIce

land

,Ice

land

Phal

acro

cora

x pe

lagi

cus

PelagicCo

rmor

ant

Unite

dSt

ates

BuldirIsland

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Cape

Peirce,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

ChiniakBa

y,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

HallIslan

d,A

lask

a

Phal

acro

cora

x ur

ileRe

d-face

dCo

rmor

ant

Unite

dSt

ates

ChiniakBa

y,A

lask

a

Poly

stic

ta st

elle

riSt

eller's

Eider

RussianFe

deratio

nBe

ringIsland

coa

st

RussianFe

deratio

nTa

imyrPen

insu

la

RussianFe

deratio

nTo

tals

pecies

Nor

way

Varang

erfjo

rd,n

orth

ernNor

way

Riss

a br

eviro

stris

Red-

legg

edKitt

iwak

eUnite

dSt

ates

BuldirIsland

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

StG

eorg

eIsland

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

St.P

aulIslan

d,A

lask

a

Riss

a tr

idac

tyla

Blac

k-legg

edKitt

iwak

eUnite

dSt

ates

Agattu

Island

,Alask

a

RussianFe

deratio

nArk

hang

elsk

ayaBa

y,N

ovay

aZe

mya

40Cl

ass

Bino

mia

lCo

mm

on n

ame(

s)Co

untr

yLo

cati

on o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Svalba

rdand

JanMay

enIs

land

sBe

arIs

land

Unite

dSt

ates

Bluff

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

BuldirIsland

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Cape

Lisbu

rne,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Cape

Peirce,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

ChiniakBa

y,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Chow

ietIslan

d,A

lask

a

Icelan

dHafna

berg

,Sou

th-W

estIce

land

Unite

dSt

ates

HallIslan

d,A

lask

a

Nor

way

Hjelm

søy,M

åsøy

,Finnm

ark

Nor

way

Hor

nøy,Vardø

,Finnm

ark

RussianFe

deratio

nKh

arlov,M

urm

ancoa

st,N

orth

-Wes

tRus

sia

Unite

dSt

ates

KoniujiIslan

d,A

lask

a

Icelan

dKr

isuv

ikur

berg

(Kris

uvik),SW

Icelan

d

Cana

daPr

ince

Leo

poldIs

land

,Nun

avut

Unite

dSt

ates

PualeBa

y,A

lask

a

Nor

way

Røst,R

øst,Nor

dlan

d

Unite

dSt

ates

Roun

dIsland

,Alask

a

RussianFe

deratio

nRu

biniRoc

k,H

ooke

rIslan

d,Franz

Jose

fLan

d

Icelan

dSk

oruv

ik,N

EIcelan

d

Nor

way

Sør-Varan

ger,S

ør-V

aran

ger,F

innm

ark

Unite

dSt

ates

StG

eorg

eIsland

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

St.P

aulIslan

d,A

lask

a

Som

ater

ia m

ollis

sim

aCo

mm

onEider

RussianFe

deratio

nBe

ringIsland

coa

st

Icelan

dNor

durkot

,Rey

kjan

esba

er,s

outh

wes

tIce

land

Unite

dSt

ates

Yuko

n-Ku

skok

wim

delta

Gre

enland

Zack

erbe

rgda

len,N

orth

eastG

reen

land

Ster

cora

rius l

ongi

caud

usLo

ng-tailedJa

eger

Cana

daSo

uthe

rnPlain,S

irmilikNationa

lPar

k,Bylot

Island

,(Q

arlik

turv

ikValley/m

aingo

osene

stingco

lony

)

Gre

enland

TheKa

rupe

lvValleyPr

ojec

t,TraillO,K

ongOsc

arsFjor

d,

Nor

th-Eas

tGre

enland

Ster

cora

rius p

aras

iticu

sArctic

Jaeg

er,P

aras

iticJa

eger,

Arctic

Sku

aRu

ssianFe

deratio

nKh

arlovIsland

,Mur

man

skCoa

st

41Cl

ass

Bino

mia

lCo

mm

on n

ame(

s)Co

untr

yLo

cati

on o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Nor

way

Slet

tnes

,Gam

vik,Finn

mar

k

Ster

na p

arad

isae

aArctic

tern

RussianFe

deratio

nOne

shsk

iBay

,White

Sea

,Rus

sia

Nor

way

Pasv

iknatur

rese

rvat,Sør

-Varan

ger,F

innm

ark

RussianFe

deratio

nSe

venIsland

s,Mur

man

skCoa

st,R

ussia

Gre

enland

The4island

sof

Gro

nneEjland

Unite

dSt

ates

Yuko

n-Ku

skok

wim

delta

Uria

aal

geCo

mm

onG

uille

mot

Icelan

dHafna

berg

,Sou

th-W

estIce

land

Ru

ssianFe

deratio

nKa

rlovIsland

,Mur

man

sk,R

ussia

Icelan

dKr

isuv

ikur

berg

(Kris

uvik),SW

Icelan

d

Icelan

dSk

oruv

ik,N

EIcelan

d

Nor

way

Sylte

fjord

,Finm

ark,N

orway

Sv

alba

rdand

JanMay

enIs

land

sBe

arIs

land

,Nor

way

Nor

way

Hjelm

søy,M

åsøy

,Finnm

ark

Nor

way

Hor

nnøy

,Vardø

,Finnm

ark

Nor

way

Sor-Fu

gloy

,Tro

ms,Nor

way

Nor

way

Vedø

y,Ved

øy,N

ordlan

d

Unite

dSt

ates

Bluff

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Cape

Peirce,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

HallIslan

d,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Roun

dIsland

,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

StG

eorg

eIsland

,Prib

ilofs

Unite

dSt

ates

StPau

lIslan

d,Prib

ilofs

Unite

dSt

ates

St.L

awre

nceIsland

Uria

lom

via

Thick-bille

dGuille

mot

Cana

daCo

atsIsland

,Nun

avut

Icelan

dHafna

berg

,Sou

th-W

estIce

land

Icelan

dKr

isuv

ikur

berg

(Kris

uvik),SW

Icelan

d

Ca

nada

Prince

Leo

poldIs

land

,Nun

avut

Icelan

dSk

oruv

ik,N

EIcelan

d

Ru

ssianFe

deratio

nBe

zym

yann

ayaba

y

Nor

way

Hor

noya

Gre

enland

KapBr

ewster

Ru

ssianFe

deratio

nKh

arlovIsland

42Cl

ass

Bino

mia

lCo

mm

on n

ame(

s)Co

untr

yLo

cati

on o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Sv

alba

rdand

JanMay

enIs

land

sSv

alba

rd

Unite

dSt

ates

BuldirIsland

Unite

dSt

ates

HallIslan

d,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

StG

eorg

eIsland

,Prib

ilofs

Unite

dSt

ates

StPau

lIslan

d,Prib

ilofs

Unite

dSt

ates

St.L

awre

nceIsland

Xem

a sa

bini

Sabine

'sGull

Unite

dSt

ates

Yuko

n-Ku

skok

wim

delta

Mam

mal

sBa

laen

a m

ystic

etus

Bowhe

adw

hale

Unite

dSt

ates

Wes

tern

Arctic

sto

ck,A

lask

a(aka

Ber

ing-

Chuk

chi-

Beau

fortsto

ck).

Bala

enop

tera

acu

toro

stra

taM

inke

wha

leNor

way

Bare

ntsh

avet

,Grø

nlan

dsha

vet,Nor

skeh

avet

og

Nor

dsjøen

Icelan

dIcelan

dicco

asta

lwater

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Pribilo

fIsa

lnds

,Ber

ingSe

a

Bala

enop

tera

bor

ealis

Seiw

hale

Icelan

dIcelan

dicco

asta

lwater

s

Bala

enop

tera

mus

culu

sBlue

wha

leIcelan

dIcelan

dicco

asta

lwater

s

Bala

enop

tera

phy

salu

sFinwha

leGre

enland

Gre

enland

Icelan

dIcelan

d

Icelan

dIcelan

dicco

asta

lwater

s

Cana

daNew

foun

dlan

d

Unite

dSt

ates

Pribilo

fIslan

ds,B

eringSe

a

Callo

rhin

us u

rsin

usNor

ther

nfu

rsea

lUnite

dSt

ates

St.G

eorg

eIsland

(inth

ePr

ibilo

fIslan

dspar

toft

he

Aleut

ianIsland

s),A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

St.P

aulIslan

d(in

thePr

ibilo

fIslan

dspar

toft

he

Aleut

ianIsland

s),A

lask

a

Del

phin

apte

rus l

euca

sBe

luga

Unite

dSt

ates

Cook

Inlets

tock

,Alask

a

Ca

nada

Easter

nHud

sonBa

ypo

pulatio

n

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nCh

ukch

iSea

Sto

ck,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Nor

tonSo

und,A

lask

a

Enhy

dra

lutr

isSe

aot

ter

Unite

dSt

ates

Adak

Island

,Aleut

ianIsland

s,Alask

a

RussianFe

deratio

nBe

ringIsland

,Rus

sia

Unite

dSt

ates

Delarof

Island

s,Aleut

ianIsland

s,Alask

a.

Unite

dSt

ates

FoxIsland

,Aleut

ianIsland

s,Alask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Nea

rIslan

ds,A

leut

ianIsland

s,Alask

a.

43Cl

ass

Bino

mia

lCo

mm

on n

ame(

s)Co

untr

yLo

cati

on o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Unite

dSt

ates

Nor

thA

lask

anpen

insu

la,n

orth

east(o

ffsho

re)

Unite

dSt

ates

Nor

thA

lask

anpen

insu

la,s

outh

wes

t(off

shor

e)

Unite

dSt

ates

RatIslan

ds,A

leut

ianIsland

s,Alask

a.

Unite

dSt

ates

Sout

hAlask

ape

nins

ula,coa

stlin

eof

22island

s.

Unite

dSt

ates

Sout

hAlask

ape

nins

ula,False

Pas

sto

Cap

eDou

glas

,co

asta

l

Unite

dSt

ates

Sout

hAlask

anPen

insu

lafr

om(o

ffsho

re)fro

mth

eIkatan

Pen

insu

lato

Shu

mag

inIs

land

s

Esch

richt

ius r

obus

tus

Graywha

leUnite

dSt

ates

Nor

ther

nBe

ringSe

ainclud

ingSt

Law

renc

eIsland

Unite

dSt

ates

Pribilo

fIslan

ds,B

eringSe

a

Eum

etop

ias j

ubat

usSt

ellers

ealion

Unite

dSt

ates

Alask

a-W

este

rnsto

ck

Unite

dSt

ates

Cent

ralA

leut

ianIsland

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Easter

nAleut

ianIsland

s

RussianFe

deratio

nKu

rilIs

land

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Wes

tern

Aleut

ianIsland

s

Glo

bice

phal

a m

elas

Long

finn

edpilo

twha

leIcelan

dIcelan

dicco

asta

lwater

s

Hyp

eroo

don

ampu

llatu

sNor

ther

nbo

ttleno

sew

hale

Icelan

dIcelan

dicco

asta

lwater

s

Meg

apte

ra n

ovae

angl

iae

Hum

pbac

kwha

leIcelan

dIcelan

dicco

asta

lwater

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Pribilo

fIslan

ds,B

eringSe

a

Mon

odon

mon

ocer

osNar

wha

lCa

nada

Hud

sonBa

y,Can

ada

Odo

benu

s ros

mar

usPa

cific

walru

sUnite

dSt

ates

Berin

gan

dCh

ukch

isea

sof

Alask

aan

dRu

ssia

Orc

inus

orc

aKille

rwha

leIcelan

dIcelan

dicco

asta

lwater

s

Unite

dSt

ates

Pribilo

fIslan

ds,B

eringSe

a

Phoc

a vi

tulin

aHar

bour

Sea

lUnite

dSt

ates

Otter

Island

,Ber

ingSe

a,A

lask

a

Unite

dSt

ates

Nan

vakIsland

,Alask

a

Sw

eden

Nor

ther

nSw

eden

Unite

dSt

ates

Tugida

kIsland

,Alask

a

Phoc

oena

pho

coen

aHar

bour

por

poise

Icelan

dIcelan

dicco

asta

lwater

s

Phoc

oeno

ides

dal

liDall's

por

poise

Unite

dSt

ates

Pribilo

fIslan

ds,B

eringSe

a

Phys

eter

cato

don

Sper

mw

hale

Icelan

dIcelan

dicco

asta

lwater

s

Pusa

his

pida

Ring

edsea

lCa

nada

easter

nBe

aufo

rtSea

Urs

us m

ariti

mus

Polarb

ear

Unite

dSt

ates

Alask

anSto

ck

44

Clas

sBi

nom

ial

Com

mon

nam

e(s)

Coun

try

Loca

tion

of P

opul

atio

n

Cana

daBa

ffinBa

y

Unite

dSt

ates

Chuk

chi/B

eringSe

astoc

k

Cana

daDav

isStrait

Cana

daNor

ther

nBe

aufo

rtSea

pop

ulation

Unite

dSt

ates

Sout

hern

Bea

ufor

tpop

ulation

Cana

daSo

uthe

rnH

udso

nBa

ypo

pulatio

n

Cana

daW

este

rnH

udso

nBa

ypo

pulatio

n

RussianFe

deratio

nW

rang

elIs

land

State

Natur

eRe

serv

e

45

App

endi

x 4:

Tab

le o

f ind

ex v

alue

s

Theta

blepr

esen

tsfive

yea

rlyin

dexva

lues

and

num

bero

fpop

ulations

fore

achArctic

inde

xsh

owninth

ere

port.

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

AST

I 201

11

1.00

9841

1.07

8684

1.15

0389

1.23

9031

1.21

8304

1.16

5219

1.21

232

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.94

8302

0.99

796

1.04

626

1.10

4754

1.07

5185

1.01

7745

1.04

8901

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.07

6369

1.16

7175

1.26

6994

1.39

765

1.38

5632

1.33

4767

1.40

2085

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

224

283

353

411

469

571

619

503

Mar

ine

Mar

inesp

ecies

11.11

4247

1.31

7582

1.57

2679

1.88

2688

1.96

8758

1.89

5275

1.93

523

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.96

5039

1.11

3791

1.28

8609

1.47

4931

1.52

5575

1.45

3415

1.46

4981

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.30

8125

1.58

9431

1.93

303

2.41

3804

2.54

9569

2.47

1473

2.55

6968

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

6899

145

195

216

231

222

165

Mar

inebird

s1

0.99

7764

1.12

2378

1.28

987

1.31

4885

1.33

1219

1.23

6808

1.21

1394

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.91

827

1.00

5529

1.12

5928

1.08

6834

1.06

1118

0.98

2468

0.86

91

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.09

5847

1.24

4867

1.45

0622

1.59

9749

1.64

3055

1.59

3717

1.56

662

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

3449

7410

311

512

411

592

Mar

inem

amm

als

11.20

2454

1.72

2755

1.82

7424

1.96

272.53

3504

2.47

6332

2.21

4405

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.02

7889

1.17

436

1.23

7401

1.05

0436

1.27

0725

1.28

0015

1.05

5701

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.38

9616

2.35

3404

2.64

3598

3.84

6035

4.65

1949

4.26

7893

3.83

6428

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

1020

2534

4146

4310

Mar

inefis

hes

11.21

5079

1.33

1957

1.77

474

2.57

9227

2.47

9329

2.42

4314

2.60

0284

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.94

6687

1.01

7399

1.28

4341

1.70

1527

1.64

0312

1.62

3004

1.75

3774

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.94

6065

2.07

7843

3.02

0004

4.34

7044

4.33

2616

4.05

346

4.44

3767

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

2430

4658

6061

6463

Taxo

nom

ic e

ffec

t

Mar

ine

11.11

4247

1.31

7582

1.57

2679

1.88

2688

1.96

8758

1.89

5275

1.93

523

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.96

5039

1.11

3791

1.28

8609

1.47

4931

1.52

5575

1.45

3415

1.46

4981

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.30

8125

1.58

9431

1.93

303

2.41

3804

2.54

9569

2.47

1473

2.55

6968

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

6899

145

195

216

231

222

165

46

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Minus

bird

s1

1.21

8977

1.50

363

1.84

363

2.41

092.56

1966

2.50

812.61

6509

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.95

2601

1.11

7566

1.32

8514

1.64

1212

1.71

7797

1.66

3814

1.71

0984

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.61

4112

2.08

8935

2.62

9027

3.64

9082

3.90

1905

3.83

919

4.05

9243

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

3450

7192

101

107

107

73

Minus

fish

es1

1.04

1276

1.27

3508

1.42

1223

1.46

926

1.63

6768

1.55

0269

1.49

6136

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.95

9672

1.11

1677

1.20

1662

1.15

2716

1.26

1503

1.17

6684

1.10

393

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.13

158

1.48

1346

1.72

0099

1.90

8795

2.15

271

2.05

8076

2.04

3897

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

4469

9913

715

617

015

810

2

Minus

mam

mals

11.09

9438

1.22

3274

1.50

9501

1.87

1507

1.84

258

1.76

6273

1.82

7372

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.93

5411

1.02

1167

1.22

3764

1.45

7115

1.41

5932

1.34

2493

1.35

1402

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.32

1133

1.49

2295

1.90

2881

2.43

3802

2.42

5199

2.35

1492

2.42

3714

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

5879

120

161

175

185

179

155

Oce

an b

asin

Arctic

Oce

an1

1.07

794

1.11

8803

1.03

1441

1.19

854

1.35

7803

1.42

4298

1.54

2828

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.97

856

0.96

7883

0.83

3491

0.76

1469

0.87

7838

0.93

3275

0.94

5517

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.17

7113

1.28

991

1.22

7842

1.62

1245

1.88

7448

1.91

7453

2.19

7517

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

3239

5064

8376

7147

Atla

nticO

cean

11.09

2007

0.97

1313

0.90

5974

0.79

2417

0.68

2281

0.69

8429

0.69

0356

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.69

8235

0.60

3564

0.57

5761

0.49

9334

0.40

574

0.41

927

0.41

9878

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.56

8681

1.42

2385

1.31

1167

1.15

544

0.99

4336

1.03

2576

0.97

9962

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

1922

3041

4036

2423

Pacific

Oce

an1

0.97

1865

1.33

2155

1.87

0811

2.36

7528

2.38

9436

2.14

8445

2.11

3518

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.79

9362

1.04

0441

1.42

6487

1.72

7317

1.73

0009

1.53

118

1.51

2989

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.22

5136

1.79

3921

2.58

2133

3.39

8477

3.49

1577

3.35

6503

3.16

0392

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

1738

6590

9311

912

795

Beri

ng S

ea

Berin

gSe

a1

1.04

2088

1.48

759

1.96

7571

2.48

797

2.47

797

2.24

5908

2.23

5218

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.82

4813

1.13

8795

1.44

5061

1.83

258

1.86

2725

1.62

9392

1.58

9221

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.22

0889

2.04

5222

2.66

7079

3.40

3583

3.34

0541

3.17

2907

3.33

482

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

1233

5584

8710

811

690

47

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Mar

inem

inus

Ber

ingSe

a1

1.17

1356

1.18

3236

1.20

6308

1.34

7492

1.46

2441

1.52

6446

1.62

6274

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.98

1972

0.96

9959

0.90

0716

0.94

351

1.00

6895

1.07

1785

1.18

3513

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.44

3303

1.50

594

1.53

7158

1.94

7833

2.11

1479

2.17

8463

2.46

748

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

5666

9011

112

912

310

675

Berin

gbird

s1

0.71

6961

0.75

6647

0.79

5857

0.97

2427

0.96

1084

0.84

8746

0.83

9834

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.62

3031

0.65

2309

0.68

0874

0.74

8608

0.73

3071

0.62

605

0.57

0575

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.82

0872

0.87

1604

0.92

5849

1.26

0082

1.25

8951

1.15

9308

1.21

743

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

110

2134

3749

5437

Berin

gfis

hes

11.16

6061

1.93

7049

2.99

9204

3.71

9842

3.88

4403

3.57

3027

3.69

2198

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.76

1074

1.21

6892

1.78

5645

2.19

5324

2.24

9615

2.02

8019

2.05

3039

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.77

3337

3.08

2026

5.01

3473

6.34

9981

6.65

3324

6.30

5691

6.65

5616

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

58

1830

3035

4148

Berin

gm

amm

als

11.15

8352

1.78

1006

2.25

3052

3.04

9295

2.54

1555

2.26

7056

1.81

0252

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.06

2601

1.27

7659

1.48

4669

1.62

4318

1.29

5382

1.14

5237

0.90

6043

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.24

7532

2.57

333

3.46

961

5.74

6624

5.07

4001

4.57

4479

3.68

8465

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

615

1620

2024

215

Sea

ice

asso

ciat

ion

Not

assoc

iate

d1

1.08

0857

1.29

4591

1.61

341.93

5442

1.97

9779

1.89

2574

1.94

0091

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.88

611

1.09

9004

1.29

5827

1.46

4921

1.43

6947

1.44

2808

1.48

0081

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.26

6706

1.56

9791

2.06

2277

2.46

2768

2.61

3275

2.49

8851

2.63

102

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

6492

132

171

191

205

198

148

Seaiceas

sociated

11.43

8163

1.47

8786

1.21

5271

1.38

2608

1.82

3801

1.90

005

1.84

7834

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.21

3439

1.24

378

0.84

8826

0.89

7862

0.99

0532

0.96

9511

0.97

8472

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.69

1054

1.75

5737

1.69

4164

2.08

8947

3.27

1395

3.28

2895

3.40

3608

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

47

1324

2526

2417

Mar

ine

zone

Bent

hicfis

h1

0.84

7484

1.01

5729

1.45

1804

1.96

7326

2.13

6922

2.06

0795

2.35

9461

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.68

0872

0.78

0571

1.04

1065

1.32

2604

1.41

0522

1.34

0051

1.50

5985

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.03

4374

1.30

791

2.00

8178

2.97

9518

3.26

9703

3.20

2652

3.71

8174

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

1013

2232

3441

4647

48

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Bent

hope

lagicfis

h1

1.34

8473

1.65

1483

1.78

4157

2.39

8219

1.36

1894

1.37

5197

1.15

7641

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.68

7768

0.78

0432

0.74

494

0.89

4199

0.48

8127

0.43

6445

0.34

8927

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

2.83

3867

3.62

7184

4.59

0298

6.67

3504

3.99

5494

4.58

0171

4.05

2748

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

910

1316

1613

1111

Pelagicfis

h1

2.11

1073

1.59

7818

1.53

8582

3.26

7538

2.60

4642

2.73

313

2.37

8078

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.81

8447

0.56

5143

0.46

1006

0.70

1132

0.54

6403

0.52

764

0.45

5817

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

5.90

7668

4.84

943

5.62

7016

17.883

314

.593

5416

.293

6114

.549

02

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

57

1110

107

75

Plan

ktiv

orou

s fe

eder

s

Pisc

ivor

ousse

abird

s1

0.97

3779

1.06

8846

1.08

3051

0.90

3676

0.90

3919

0.82

6194

0.74

2729

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.86

7834

0.94

5021

0.95

4432

0.74

6605

0.73

5827

0.62

4446

0.51

7759

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.06

8693

1.17

199

1.20

7084

1.01

5262

1.06

6673

0.99

4613

1.00

9821

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

2842

6182

9191

8366

Pisc

ivor

ousfis

hes

11.34

8937

1.20

5521

1.90

8059

3.46

1609

3.64

4552

3.57

3729

4.16

1422

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.92

8582

0.71

0118

0.96

6247

1.85

0307

2.04

2281

1.99

8049

2.25

6241

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

2.15

2773

2.08

003

3.27

0981

6.79

9244

7.22

117

7.08

5897

7.72

6046

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

99

1526

2931

3129

Plan

ktivor

ousse

abird

s1

0.80

3552

0.87

4373

0.98

3917

1.72

2304

1.64

1129

1.62

533

1.94

3556

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.80

3552

0.75

156

0.83

6844

1.44

5102

1.33

1621

1.40

3463

1.54

2119

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.80

3552

0.95

5237

1.30

4581

2.41

8211

2.33

0629

2.49

7926

3.87

7701

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

01

613

1418

1716

Plan

ktivor

ousfis

hes

11.49

9526

2.09

6872

2.57

4555

3.09

4991

3.16

1776

3.21

2127

2.97

1525

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.78

4903

1.10

5678

1.26

009

1.43

6703

1.44

644

1.53

5758

1.36

0954

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

2.99

681

4.61

6229

5.29

6864

5.89

4302

5.86

2755

6.87

1211

6.15

2875

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

611

1614

1415

1715

Thre

ats

Unk

nown

11.01

4925

1.07

8858

0.98

7633

1.05

0691

1.08

9163

1.11

2435

1.02

7479

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.91

8452

0.96

2793

0.83

9148

0.75

0054

0.74

7863

0.75

0306

0.65

9168

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.12

3089

1.21

3615

1.14

8177

1.49

2938

1.60

4574

1.66

9382

1.61

2894

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

3146

7190

115

116

105

66

49

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Noth

reats

11.01

1811

1.45

1504

1.99

6786

3.20

8091

3.75

7376

3.59

1975

4.08

0581

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.70

798

0.90

1846

1.17

4586

1.79

7852

2.07

3388

1.96

1934

2.17

1151

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.39

634

2.30

7871

3.36

0468

5.65

6222

6.64

2041

6.46

3931

7.56

2862

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

717

1932

2635

3939

Any

thre

at1

1.16

2646

1.22

5217

1.44

617

1.53

271

1.39

0152

1.39

6481

1.37

2785

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.92

5443

0.94

7447

1.05

8939

1.09

8914

0.98

1926

0.97

4464

0.93

8049

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.50

7447

1.63

3341

2.02

6676

2.18

7835

2.00

7798

2.04

2104

2.04

1828

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

3036

5573

7580

7860

Prot

ecte

d ar

eas

Prot

ecte

dbird

s1

0.97

5835

1.09

1298

1.26

9578

1.33

1779

1.36

3661

1.28

2401

1.21

469

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.78

3012

0.86

3271

0.95

9008

0.97

2525

0.96

3008

0.89

1771

0.79

8613

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

1.17

6186

1.34

6428

1.66

6638

1.81

4192

1.90

2935

1.83

6861

1.83

2926

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

1728

4967

7278

7659

Unp

rote

cted

bird

s1

0.88

1982

1.03

2164

1.10

4786

1.07

4551

1.05

1463

0.99

8881

0.97

4174

Lower

con

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.79

6747

0.89

1092

0.93

0566

0.88

6453

0.84

260.78

9202

0.69

9173

Upp

ercon

fiden

cein

terv

al1

0.96

6151

1.20

4806

1.32

7638

1.31

2931

1.31

921.26

3694

1.45

2495

Num

bero

fpop

ulations

1519

2131

3941

3530

50A

ppen

dix

5: T

able

of p

opul

atio

n tr

ends

for n

ine

sea-

ice

asso

ciat

ed s

peci

es

Tren

dsare

bas

edonth

eov

erallc

hang

einpop

ulationsize

.

Spec

ies

Com

mon

nam

eLo

cati

on o

f mon

itor

ed p

opul

atio

nRe

fere

nce

Popu

lati

on tr

end

Bala

ena

mys

ticet

usBo

whe

adw

hale

Wes

tern

Arctic

sto

ck,A

lask

a(a.k.a.B

ering-

Chuk

chi-

Beau

fortsto

ck).

(Ang

liss&O

utlaw200

6)St

able/Po

sitiv

e

Bore

ogad

us sa

ida

Arctic

cod

Bare

ntsh

avet

(Micha

lsen

200

4;Stia

nsen

&Filin20

08)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

Sa

gava

nirkto

kDelta

,Alask

a(G

riffith

set

al.19

98)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

Del

phin

apte

rus l

euca

sBe

luga

wha

leCo

okIn

lets

tock

,Alask

a(M

MC20

02;A

nglis

s&O

utlaw200

8;A

llen&A

nglis

s20

10)

Neg

ative

Easter

nCh

ukch

iSea

Sto

ck,A

lask

a(N

OAAFishe

ries:O

ffice

ofP

rote

cted

Res

ources

199

9)Neg

ative

Easter

nHud

sonBa

ypo

pulatio

n(D

FO200

5)Neg

ative

Nor

tonSo

und,A

lask

a(D

eMas

tere

t al.20

01)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

Mon

odon

mon

ocer

osNar

wha

lHud

sonBa

y,Can

ada

(COSE

WIC

200

4)St

able/Po

sitiv

e

Odo

benu

s ros

mar

usPa

cific

walru

sBe

ringan

dCh

ukch

iSea

sof

Alask

aan

dRu

ssia

(Gar

ner1

995;N

OAA201

0a)

Neg

ative

Pago

phila

ebu

rnea

Ivor

ygu

llFran

z-Jo

sefL

and

(Ank

er-N

ilsse

net

al.20

00)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

Vario

usin

Can

ada,G

reen

land

,Rus

sia,N

orway

(m

idpo

intlatitu

debelow

)(C

AFF

200

8)Neg

ative

Pusa

his

pida

Ring

edsea

lEa

ster

nBe

aufo

rtSea

(Stir

ling20

02)

Neg

ative

Uria

lom

via

Thick-bille

dgu

illem

otBe

zym

yann

ayaba

y(K

rasn

ove

t al.19

95)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

Hor

noya

(Ank

er-N

ilsse

net

al.20

00)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

KapBr

ewster

(Falk&Kam

pp199

7)Neg

ative

Khar

lovIsland

(Krasn

ove

t al.19

95)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

Svalba

rd(A

nker

-Nils

sen

et a

l.20

00)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

BuldirIsland

(Drago

oet

al.20

00;D

rago

oet

al.20

08)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

StG

eorg

eIsland

,Prib

ilofs

(Drago

oet

al.20

00;D

rago

oet

al.20

08)

Neg

ative

StPau

lIslan

d,Prib

ilofs

(Drago

oet

al.20

00;D

rago

oet

al.20

08)

Neg

ative

Hafna

berg

,Sou

th-W

estIce

land

(Garoa

rsso

n&Zoc

ker2

006)

Neg

ative

Krisuv

ikur

berg

(Kris

uvik),SW

Icelan

d(G

aroa

rsso

n&Zoc

ker2

006)

Neg

ative

Skor

uvik,N

EIcelan

d(G

aroa

rsso

n&Zoc

ker2

006)

Neg

ative

CoatsIsland

,Nun

avut

(Gas

ton

et a

l.20

08b)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

Prince

Leo

poldIs

land

,Nun

avut

(Gas

ton

et a

l.20

08b)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

51

Spec

ies

Com

mon

nam

eLo

cati

on o

f mon

itor

ed p

opul

atio

nRe

fere

nce

Popu

lati

on tr

end

HallIslan

d,A

lask

a(D

rago

oet

al.20

08)

Neg

ative

St.L

awre

nceIsland

(Drago

oet

al.20

08)

Neg

ative

Urs

us m

ariti

mus

Polarb

ear

Chuk

chi/B

eringSe

aSt

ock

(U.S.F

ishan

dW

ildlifeSe

rviceMar

ineMam

mals

Man

agem

ent2

002;N

OAA201

0b)

Neg

ative

Alask

anSto

ck(U

.S.F

ishan

dW

ildlifeSe

rviceMar

ineMam

mals

Man

agem

ent2

002)

Neg

ative

Wrang

elIs

land

State

Natur

eRe

serv

e(D

eroc

here

t al.19

97)

Neg

ative

Sout

hern

Bea

ufor

tpop

ulation

(IUCN

200

1;IU

CN/S

SCPolarBea

rSpe

cialistG

roup

20

10)

Neg

ative

Wes

tern

Hud

sonBa

ypo

pulatio

n(A

ars

et a

l.20

05)

Neg

ative

Sout

hern

Hud

sonba

ypo

pulatio

n(O

bbard

et a

l.20

07)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

Nor

ther

nbe

aufo

rtsea

pop

ulation

(Stir

ling

et a

l.20

07)

Stab

le/Po

sitiv

e

Baffi

nBa

y(IU

CN/S

SCPolarBea

rSpe

cialistG

roup

201

0)Neg

ative

Dav

isstrait

(IUCN

/SSC

PolarBea

rSpe

cialistG

roup

201

0)St

able/Po

sitiv

e

Forfurtherinformationandadditionalcopiescontact:

CAFF INTERNATIONAL SECRETARIATBorgir

Nordurslod600 Akureyri

ICELAND

Telephone:+3544623350Fax:+3544623390E-mail:[email protected]

Internet:http://www.caff.is

ISBN:978-9935-431-15-8

The Arctic Species Trend Indexlibrary.arcticportal.org/1665/1/ASTImarine.pdfThe Arctic Species Trend...

Documents

Transcript of The Arctic Species Trend Indexlibrary.arcticportal.org/1665/1/ASTImarine.pdfThe Arctic Species Trend...