The Arctic in the Anthropocene Emerging Research Questions
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Transcript of The Arctic in the Anthropocene Emerging Research Questions
The Arctic in the AnthropoceneEmerging Research Questions
Stephanie Pfirman and Henry Huntington Committee Co-Chairs
April 28, 2014
Study sponsors: DOE, NASA, NOAA, NSF, Smithsonian, USARC Photo credit: P. Spector
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Who are we?• National Academy of Sciences (NAS) is a nonprofit
organization established in 1863. We were charteredby Congress during the Lincoln Administration toprovide independent advice to the Nation onscience, engineering, and medicine We are nota government agency.
• National Academy of Engineering (NAE - est. 1964) and Institute of Medicine (IOM - est. 1970) are connected institutions, expanding our breadth and depth of expertise. (National Research Council is “operating arm.”)
• Intellectual leadership comes from volunteer experts, chosen for expertise, balance, and objectivity.
• Committee reports are most well known (200+ reports each year) but also research grants, fellowships, workshops, & other uses of independent experts.
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Committee MembershipHENRY HUNTINGTON, Co-Chair
The Pew Charitable TrustsSTEPHANIE PFIRMAN, Co-Chair
Barnard College, Columbia UniversityCARIN ASHJIAN
Woods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionLAURA BOURGEAU-CHAVEZ
Michigan Technological UniversityJENNIFER FRANCIS
Rutgers UniversitySVEN HAAKANSON
University of WashingtonROBERT HAWLEY
Dartmouth CollegeTAQULIK HEPA
North Slope BoroughDAVID HIK
University of Alberta
LARRY HINZMANUniversity of Alaska, Fairbanks
AMANDA LYNCHBrown University
A. MICHAEL MACRANDERShell Alaska
GIFFORD MILLERUniversity of Colorado, Boulder
KATE MORANOcean Networks Canada
ELLEN MOSLEY-THOMPSONThe Ohio State University
SAMUEL MUKASAUniversity of New Hampshire
TOM WEINGARTNERUniversity of Alaska, Fairbanks
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1. Study Context• What happens in the Arctic—
to ecosystems, people, and climate—has far-reaching implications for the entire planet
• Climate change is happening faster in the Arctic than anywhere else on Earth, causing the loss of sea ice, thawing of permafrost, and shifts in ecosystems
• This report connects the dots between future science opportunities and methods to meet those challenges
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Charge to the Committee• Summarize the rationale for
continued U.S. research in the Arctic
• Identify key emerging scientific questions in different realms of Arctic science (both disciplinary and cross cutting)
Photo credit: M. Kennedy
• Identify the types of research infrastructure, data management, technological developments, and logistical support needed
• Identify needs and opportunities for improved coordination in Arctic research
• Explore how agency decision makers might balance their research programs and associated investments
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Community Engagement• Review of published reports and articles
(including previous reports from numerous regional, national, and international agencies, organizations, and other institutions )
• Online questionnaire(over 300 responses)
• Targeted interviews(15 researchers)
• Anchorage Workshop(~50 participants)
• Ottawa Workshop(~45 participants)
Photo credit: P. Spector
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Community Engagement9%
24%
31%
35% Graduate student
Early career
Mid-career
Late career
10%
18%
6%12%17%
12%3%
22%
Atmosphere/climateBiology/ecologyCryosphereOceansPeople/social scienceTerrestrial/geoPaleoOther/interdisciplinary
Respondent Career Stage
Respondent Disciplines
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2. Rationale for Arctic ResearchExamples of observed impacts of climate change in the Arctic from IPCC 2014
Category ExamplesSnow and IceRivers and LakesFloods and Drought
• Decreasing sea ice cover in summer• Reduction in ice volume in glaciers• Decreasing snow cover extent• Widespread permafrost degradation• Increased river discharge for large circumpolar rivers• Increased lake water temperatures• Disappearance of thermokarst lakes due to permafrost
degradation in the low Arctic
Terrestrial Ecosystems • Increased shrub cover in the tundra• Advance of Arctic tree line in latitude and altitude• Changed breeding area and population size of subarctic birds• Loss of snowbed ecosystems and tussock tundra
Coastal Erosion and Marine Ecosystems
• Increased coastal erosion• Negative effects on non-migratory species
Food Production and Livelihoods
• Impact on livelihoods of indigenous peoples• Increased shipping traffic across Bering Strait
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3. Emerging Research Questions• Existing Questions Those that have been the subject
of ongoing research but remain unanswered or for other reasons deserve continued attention
• Emerging Questions Those that we are only now able to ask because they:
– Address newly recognized phenomena
– Build on recent results and insights
– Can be addressed using newly available technology or access
Photo credit: G. Miller
Managed
Evolving Connected
Undetermined
Hidden
Emerging Research Questions
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ERQ: Evolving Arctic• Will Arctic communities have greater or
lesser influence on their futures?• Will the land be wetter or drier and what
are the associated implications for surface water, energy balances, and ecosystems?
• How much of the variability of the Arctic system is linked to ocean circulation?
• What are the impacts of extreme events in the new ice-reduced system?
• How will primary productivity change with decreasing sea ice and snow cover?
• How will species distributions and associated ecosystem structure change with the evolving cryosphere?
Managed
Evolving Connected
Undetermined
Hidden
Figure source: NOAA
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ERQ: Hidden Arctic• What surprises are hidden within
and beneath the ice?• What is being irretrievably lost as
the Arctic changes?• Why does winter matter?• What can “break or brake” glaciers
and ice sheets?• How unusual is the current Arctic
warmth?• What is the role of the Arctic in
abrupt change?• What has been the Cenozoic
evolution of the Arctic Ocean basin?
Image source: NASA
Managed
Evolving Connected
Undetermined
Hidden
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ERQ: Connected Arctic• How will rapid Arctic warming change
the jet stream and affect weather patterns in lower latitudes?
• What is the potential for a trajectory of irreversible loss of Arctic land ice, and how will its impact vary regionally?
• How will climate change affect exchanges between the Arctic Ocean and sub-polar basins?
• How will Arctic change affect the long-range transport and persistence of biota?
• How will changing societal connections between the Arctic and the rest of the world affect Arctic communities?
Managed
Evolving Connected
Undetermined
Hidden
Image source: NASA
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Managed
Evolving Connected
Undetermined
Hidden
ERQ: Managed Arctic• How will decreasing populations in rural villages
and increasing urbanization affect Arctic peoples and societies?
• Will local, regional, and international relations in the Arctic move toward cooperation or conflict?
• How can twenty-first century development in the Arctic occur without compromising the environment or indigenous cultures while still benefitting global and Arctic inhabitants?
• How can we prepare forecasts and scenariosto meet emerging management needs?
• What benefits and risks are presented by geoengineering and other large-scale technological interventions to prevent orreduce climate change and associatedimpacts in the Arctic?
Photo source: USCG
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Leaving room for new ideas and making it possible to identify new research directions when the need arises requires:• Research to better assess new topics• Long-term observations to identify changes and
surprises without delay• Flexibility in funding to be able to move quickly when
a significant event occurs.
ERQ:Undetermined Arctic
Managed
Evolving Connected
Undetermined
Hidden
Short-termDirect application
E1: Community futures
E2: Wetter or drier
E3: Ocean variability
E4: Arctic extremes
E5: Primary productivity
H1: Icy surprises
H2: What is lost
H3: Winter
H4: Break or brake
H5: Unusual warmth
H6: Abrupt change
C1: Jet stream
C2: Irreversible ice
C3: Ocean exchange
C4: Biota transport
C5: Social connections
M1: Urbanization
M2: Cooperation/conflict
M3: 21st century development
M4: ForecastsM5: Geoengineering
H7: Cenozoic
Long-termMedium-term
Basic
un
ders
tand
ing
E6: Species distribution
Direct Application/Basic Understanding
Short-termSocial Scien
ce
E1: Community futures
E3: Ocean variability
E4: Arctic extremes
E5: Primary productivity
H1: Icy surprises
H2: What is lost
H3: Winter
H4: Break or brakeH5: Unusual warmth
H6: Abrupt change
C1: Jet streamC2: Irreversible ice
C3: Ocean exchange
C4: Biota transport
C5: Social connections
M1: Urbanization
M2: Cooperation/conflict
M3: 21st century developmentM4: Forecasts
H7: Cenozoic
Long-termMedium-term
Nat
ural
Sc
ienc
e
E6: Species distribution
E2: Wetter or drier
M5: Geoengineering
Social Science/Natural Science
H6: Abrupt change
Short-termGlob
al
E1: Community futures
E2: Wetter or drier
E3: Ocean variabilityE4: Arctic extremes
H1: Icy surprises
H2: What is lost
H3: Winter
H4: Break or brake
H5: Unusual warmth
C1: Jet stream
C2: Irreversible iceC3: Ocean exchange
C4: Biota transport
C5: Social connections
M1: Urbanization
M2: Cooperation/conflict
M3: 21st century development
M4: Forecasts
M5: Geoengineering
H7: Cenozoic
Long-termMedium-termLo
cal
Regi
onal
E6: Species distributionE5: Primary productivity
Global/Regional/Local
Information
CooperationHuman Capacity
Operations
Observations
Investment Strategies
4. Meeting the Challenges
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Meeting the ChallengesMaintaining and Building Operational Capacity• Mobile Platforms• Fixed Platforms and Systems• Remote Sensing• Sensors• Power and Communication• Models in Prediction, Projection,
and ReAnalyses• Partnerships with Industry
Sustaining Long-Term Observations• Rationale for Long-Term Observations• Coordinating Long-Term Observation Efforts
Photo credit: S. Roberts
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Meeting the ChallengesEnhancing Cooperation• Interagency, International, Interdisciplinary, Intersectoral, Social Media
Managing and Sharing Information• Preserving the Legacy of Research through Data Preservation and Dissemination• Creating a Culture of Data Preservation and Sharing• Infrastructure to Ensure Data Flows from Observation to Users, Stakeholders,
and Archives• Data Visualization and Analysis
Growing Human Capacity• Training Young Scientists• Community Engagement
Image source: Arctic Collaborative Environment
Photo credit: H. Huntington
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Meeting the Challenges
Investing in Research• Comprehensive Systems
and Synthesis Research• Non-Steady-State Research• Social Sciences and Human Capacity• Stakeholder-Initiated Research• International Funding Cooperation• Long-Term Observations
Photo source: NOAA
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5. Building Knowledge and Solving Problems
• Enhance the ways inwhich we make useof Arctic research
• Foster collaboration,especially withdecision-makers
• Manage change to the best of our abilities• Study what exists, what is emerging, and what
awaits us in the Arctic
Photo credit: M. Kennedy