The Aral Sea Disaster

• The “quiet Chernobyl”– Since 1960, the Aral Sea has:

• lost 50% of its surface area• lost 66% of its volume• left behind 3.6 mln ha of polluted soil • contributed to the environmental

degradation of water quality, air quality, and the melting of glaciers

– Central Asia has• lost its fishing industry and other

supporting industries• had an increase in public health problems• decreased its agricultural production• experienced changes in climate (longer,

colder winters and shorter, hotter summers

http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/culture/articles/photo_pages/kohn1.html

Desiccation of the Aral Sea

http://www.grida.no/enrin/graphics.cfm?data_id=9936&country=centralasia

Aral Sea Basin:

Central Asia•Kazakhstan

•Kyrgyzstan

•Tajikistan

•Turkmenistan

•Uzbekistan

•Afghanistan

Rivers:•Syr Darya

•Amu Darya

http://www.grida.no/aral/maps/geo.htm

Central Asia

Population (million)

GDP

(US$)

% GDP from Ag / % employed

by Ag

Land River Basin

Kazakhstan 14.8 22.3B 10 23 Steppe Syr Darya

Kyrgyzstan 5 1.5B 39 55 MountainousSyr Darya & Amu Darya

Tajikistan 6.7 1.03B 20 50 MountainousSyr Darya & Amu Darya

Turkmenistan 5.5 5.9B 25 44 Desert Amu Darya

Uzbekistan 25 7.5B 25 44Desert steppe

Syr Darya & Amu Darya

History

• Soviet-rule– Direct water in the basin to lower riparians (Kazakhstan,

Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan) for irrigation of cotton fields

• Post-Soviet Era– Each republic trying to establish its self-sufficiency in

government and economy• Developing agriculture and hydroelectric potential

– Several different funding organizations have offered assistance• Building a free-market democracy• Actualizing energy potential (hydroelectric, oil)• Improving water management• Improving health

Socio-economic• Agriculture

– Largest percentage of countries’ GDPs– Largest consumer of water– Land has decreased in productivity due to water logged and high saline

soils• Fishing

– Was once a profitable industry, but is now virtually non-existent• Industry

– Some textile factories – now closed or working at reduced loads

• Soviet influence is still felt– Bureaucracy used to be Soiviet officials and are not open to change– Citizens often still act as subjects as opposed to participants in

democracy

Discussion

• The republics are moving from a centralized government to free market democracies. What avenues should be taken to help the populace move from the Soviet culture (citizens as subjects) to this new culture (citizens have an active voice)?

Hydropolitics

• Central Asian republics have recognized they needed to cooperate on water management issues– 1992, Interstate Coordination Water Commission

(ICWC) – for control, rational use and protection of interstate waters

• Continue to use existing Soviet structures and principles for resource management

World Bank / UN– 1993, International Fund for the Aral Sea (IFAS) –

attract funding for programs to overcome the desiccation of the Aral Sea

– 1993, Interstate Council for the Aral Sea (ICAS) – manage programs of IFAS

– 1997, merger of IFAS and ICAS

Hydropolitics

USAID– 1998, Executive Committee of the Interstate

Council of the Central Asian Economic Community (EC CAEC) - barter system agreement between Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan on the use of water and energy resources

Discussion

• USAID has focused on working separately in the two river basins, as opposed to the Aral Sea basin-wide approach that other donor organizations have taken. Which is more effective, given that each river basin has global and local concerns?

• If the World Bank is funded by the United States, why does USAID not cooperate with World Bank and other donor organizations? If donors get frustrated with inter-donor conflict, will the donors leave the region?

Discussion

• USAID’s goals are broader than just environmental protection; therefore several of its other aid programs have conflicted with its water and environment programs. How should USAID balance its interests with that of the basin? Whose responsibility is it to justify the soundness of each project?

• Are donor agencies playing too big of a role in the development of these republics (replacing Soviet control over the decisions of the region with donor control)?

Discussion

• Will the barter agreement developed in the Syr Darya basin have longevity?

• Three attempts have been made to create a dike to separate the Small Aral Sea from the Large Aral Sea, however it keeps getting washed away. When the dike is in operation, positive results are seen in the Small Aral Sea – increases in water levels, moderation of the climate, increases in biodiversity and decreases in salinity.

Should efforts be made to create a permanent dike? Is it feasible to restore the Aral Sea (in part or whole) or should it be considered a loss? Should the focus of donor money be placed on development of water resources and energy in the river basins, or to preserve and restore the Aral Sea?