The ‘now’ of autonomous transport · approach to structuring and negotiating both merger and...
Transcript of The ‘now’ of autonomous transport · approach to structuring and negotiating both merger and...
The ‘now’ of autonomous transport
Shelley Chapelski with the assistance of and extra material from DNV GL
Vancouver (Anders Mikkelsen)
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Speakers
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Janet Grove Managing Partner
Vancouver
Building on her experience and knowledge
from years spent in corporate development
and legal roles within industry, Janet Grove
helps clients in the technology and health
sciences sectors – IT, health sciences,
telecommunications and clean-tech. She is
sought out for her expertise and business
approach to structuring and negotiating both
merger and acquisition transactions and
complex commercial relationships to develop,
commercialize and acquire technology. This
includes assisting with a variety of research
and development, supply and licensing
arrangements and developing and advising
on novel programs and collaborations
involving technology.
Shelley Chapelski Partner
Vancouver
Shelley Chapelski helps lead a team of
experienced shipping lawyers in Vancouver
and Montréal. Her practice encompasses
both transactional and litigation aspects of
maritime law, including maritime contracts,
torts, liability claims, creditor's remedies and
marine insurance matters. She has been
recognized by her clients and colleagues as
one of the leading Maritime lawyers in
Canada. Shelley's clients include commercial
vessel owners and operators, P&I Clubs and
marine insurers, ports and terminals and
maritime service providers.
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Agenda
• Current Autonomous Projects
• Innovation vs Disruption
• Drivers
• Outcomes
• Challenges
• Crystal Ball
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WORLD’S TRADE CARRIED BY SEA
90%
keeping one half the world fed
&
the other half the world warm
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AUTOMATION – Already exists
“Automated” – uses a specific and predefined method to execute
certain functions without a human controlling it
• dynamic positioning systems
• route planning software
• fuel efficiency analysis
• AIS – automatic identification system
• VDRs – voyage data recorders recording the vessel’s navigational commands and bridge communications
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Terminology
• remote controlled – vessel is navigated from a 24/7 shore based operations centre relying on automated processes
• autonomous – vessel uses automated processes to reach determinations and then implements actions without human intervention
• unmanned – no crew on board the vessel. It is either remote controlled or autonomous, or a combination of both
• MASS - Maritime Autonomous Surface Ship (IMO definition)
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Is the technology available?
YARA BIRKELAND, the first commercial cargo vessel will enter service in 2019 for manned
remote operation. The targets are unmanned remote operation during late 2019 and
autonomous operations in 2020. DNV GL is also supporting three other autonomous or
unmanned pilot projects and development of a shore side control room prototype.
2017-2020
Maersk, while not interested in unmanned ships, is equipping some of its ships with
AI powered situational awareness programming developed by Sea Machines
Robotics. Rolls-Royce are driving a number of projects and currently predict a remote
control unmanned vessel operating in coastal waters by 2025.
2018-2025
A remote control unmanned ocean-going vessel by 2030. 2030
Autonomous ocean-going vessel by 2035. 2035
Sign
ific
ant
Mo
me
ntu
m
Autonomous-related technologies have gathered significant momentum in
recent years and it will continue
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WHY AUTONOMOUS SHIPS?
Innovation comes from within industry.
Disruption comes from outside.
Frank Coles, The Maritime Executive 2017-08-13
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WHY AUTONOMOUS SHIPS?
Innovation is incremental.
Disruption rips up the present model
and starts again from scratch.
Frank Coles, The Maritime Executive 2017-08-13
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Who are the innovators?
• Ship owners and operators who feel besieged by the
regulators to produce improvements affecting the safety of
seafarers and protection of the environment.
• Marine industry service providers who assist ship operators
with means to reduce costs and maintain (achieve?)
profitability. They include Classification Societies, Marine
Engineering firms, Naval Architects, some Flag States
amongst others.
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PORT XL promoting innovation
• Accelerator partly sponsored by the Port of Rotterdam
dedicated to helping start-ups with solutions aimed to the port,
maritime and logistics sectors.
• Port XL takes an equity interest in exchange for $$ investment
and business advice.
• Supported start-ups include automated drone water cleaner,
picking up floating litter in the port, a floating inspection
drone, autonomous buoy and an automated mechanical twist
lock and a variety of freight and port software solutions.
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DNV GL promoting innovation
• Acting as a catalyst to encourage owners to make wise
decisions
• YARA BIRKELAND based on DNV GL pilot project “ReVolt”
• AAWA – Advanced Autonomous Waterborne Applications
Initiative
• AUTOSEA project
• SIMAROS project
• ROMAS project (On Shore Electronic Control Room )
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Who are the disruptors?
• Cargo interests who want to control price, convenience and
speed of delivery
• Cargo interests who want to reduce logistics costs and
minimize warehousing time
• Dreamers
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Why are they disrupting?
“Moving goods around the globe is extraordinarily process
intensive. Mountains of data are shared, numerous contracts are
signed and executed, and monies are transferred between
different participants. The volume and complexity of these
transactions grow exponentially as supply chains become longer
and more diverse – that often leads to data duplication and
reconciliation issues.”
Mike Davies, Chief Underwriting Officer Marine Asia Pacific XL Catlin
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Why are they disrupting?
“…. major manufacturers have the scale to arrange and
negotiate good rates for shipments directly. Everyone else has to
engage the services of a freight forwarder….The customer-
service aspect of freight forwarding … has long resisted
automation; there's no easy way to replicate relationships with
shipping companies and port officials. But that doesn't change
the fact that freight forwarding is opaque and highly inefficient….
Amazon and its ilk will want a technologically advanced, highly
efficient ship, built for purpose and preferably unmanned or
autonomous.”
Adam Minter, Bloomberg View 14-02-2017
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Drivers for innovation
SAFETY OF CREW
SAFETY OF EQUIPMENT
& CARGO
COST EFFICIENCIES
SMALLER CARBON
FOOTPRINT
MANAGING PIRACY?
MEETING GROWTH
PROJECTIONS
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Will early adopters be rewarded?
• Untried and unproven technology
• Expensive prototype construction
• Ports and logistics chains will not be well established to take
advantage of efficiencies
• Uncertain regulatory environment (Class, Flag, ColRegs,
domestic and international legal regimes)
• Untested liability regime
• Will financiers be confident enough to finance the ships?
• How will the insurers respond to the challenge?
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Will early adopters be rewarded? (cont’d)
• Building brand profile (i.e. Yara)
• Establishing reputation for being technologically savvy and
attracting market share as a result
• Influencing the developing standards and applications
• Benefiting from “Big Data” and analytics
• Lessons learned through the effort to implement
autonomy should greatly benefit existing operations.
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Improving safety
In shipping, more than 80%, and up to 96%, of accidents are attributed to human error.
Human error is less of a problem in commercial aviation because of autopilot and other automated systems. "There are all these systems in place to make sure the human error is removed — but on boats, it's not.’”
Phil Bourque, director of BD, Sea Machines Robotics in MNBC MACH 8-11-2017
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Opportunities for human error in practices
training
faulty or unenforced
company procedures
misunderstanding environmental
factors
relying on short cuts
inadequate communication
fatigue/capacity overload
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Opportunities for human error in applications
manufacture of hull, equipment & machinery
installation
setting of tolerances
responding to alarms
maintenance
repair
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Cost efficiencies for operators
A fully autonomous ship might cost 20 percent less to operate than a conventional crewed ship. Without the need for crew quarters, a conventional bridge, lifeboats, and other familiar features, ships can be lighter and more compact and thus less expensive to operate — although they may be more expensive to build.
Oskar Levander, SVP Concepts & Innovation, Rolls Royce
Yara Birkeland has a price tag estimated at $25 million. That's about three times as much as standard container ships of similar size.
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Liability regime & insurance
• Shift from P&I exposures to product liability insurance claims
against for coders, system provider & installers, software
designers.
• Will liability under applicable product liability laws be more
onerous than under maritime laws governing manned ships?
• Will Class and other inspectors/verifiers face more liability as
they take a more active role in developing and enforcing
standards?
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Will seaborne trade continue to grow?
Iron ore is predicted to
peak in 2025 and coal even sooner (almost 20%
of seaborne tonnage)
Regionalization of
economic activities driven by robotics &
3D printer
technologies.
Oil will peak as
reliance on renewable energy
grows
Seaborne trade volumes have grown on average by 3% per year from 1980 to
2017 reaching 10.6 billion tons. Will that continue for the next 40 years?
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Consequences?
INCREASE IN LIABILITY
EXPOSURES UNTIL TECH IS PROVEN
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SAFETY OF CREW, BUT ONLY ONCE
UNMANNED X
SHIFT OF LIABILITIES
FROM SHIP TO TECH
PROVIDERS XX
INCREASED CAPITAL
COSTS MAY EXCEED
SAVINGS XX
SMALLER CARBON
FOOTPRINT (if alternate fuel
used)
IS GROWTH PROJECTION ACCURATE??
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Challenges
Much of the focus has been
on the collision avoidance
abilities of an unmanned or
autonomous vessel.
There are well documented
concerns on an unmanned
vessel’s ability to berth, the
role of the pilot and the
security of shore control
stations (both physical and
cyber).
These are not
insurmountable and
technological solutions are
inevitable.
Is the Technology available?
Autonomous decision making likely will be a combination
of rule-based actions and artificial intelligence (AI). AI
systems are not presently capable of the complex
decision making required to control all functions and
operations necessary for the safe completion of a voyage.
How will human ethics be imbedded to chose between
two undesirous results?
Decision Making Ability
The data exchange between ship and shore for remote
controlled and autonomous vessels will be massive. The
current bandwidth capabilities are not sufficient to cope
with large scale operations. Providers are working to
meet these expected demands.
Reliable Satellite Data Links
Very low maintenance equipment and systems will be
needed for unmanned vessels and this precludes diesel
engines. Battery technology may be the future but it is not
yet sufficient to meet the power demands of a commercial
ocean-going cargo vessel.
Power Generation and
Propulsion
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Challenges (cont’d)
• Data has no value until the
ship operator determines
how to capture and use it.
Analysis of data is necessary
to support optimisation tools
to increase revenue or
control costs. It is needed to
establish and verify predictive
maintenance, design life and
replacement programs.
• Products are being offeried to
improve the ability to log data
and get it from and to ships.
More innovation will be
developed to collect and use
Big Data (even if the data is
only from one ship).
Is Big Data available? Investment by ship owners must be matched by shore
side infrastructure to facilitate powering battery powered
ships or other green fuel technology. Berths will have to
invest in mooring techniques which do not require
manually handled lines between ship and shore. Shore
side cranes will have to be capable of removing cargo
from unmanned ships.
Shore Side Investment
Who will own or establish the technology platforms? Will
the US, Russia and China cooperate to establish
standardized technology for international use? Will
countries go on their own or agree to cooperate?
Ownership of Software
To efficiently and effectively operate a fleet of vessels,
they must be true sister ships in more than just hull
design. They should operate virtually identically. Their
equipment and machinery need be virtually the same so
that maintenance and repair work can be quickly and
effectively conducted while at sea or in port. Shore side
support follow.
Sister ships at Sea and Shore
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Challenges (cont’d)
IMO is tackling the topic of
unmanned ships in the
STCW, SOLAS, COLREGS,
& MARPOL, but the process
will take time.
In the meantime, Flag States
can provide exemptions
within national waters and
make bi-lateral agreements
with other states.
Are the Regulations available?
The aviation industry has recorded that as planes turn
into autonomous machines, their captains suffer from
“Skill Fade” . While the first generation of shore side
masters will come from ships, the subsequent ones may
not have any real sea time in order to assist them in
understanding the dynamic weather, ocean and location
conditions being encountered by the ship.
Skill Fade
The scope and degree of regulatory changes required to
support autonomous shipping are immense but not
insurmountable. The biggest challenge will come from
inconsistent standards between nations as the
technology advances.
Regulatory changes
Crew will no longer be on vessels painting the hull and
checking and oiling the machinery. The equipment and
machinery on board must be of extremely high quality
which can go a long time between attendance, especially
the rotating machinery. Maintenance and replacement
must be very predictive in nature to minimize disruptive
events..
Maintenance of Machinery
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DNV GL Objective of Rule Development
Autonomous ships must be
as safe or safer than
manned, traditional ships.
Rules are needed for sensor
capabilities, decision
algorithms, shore-shore
communication, machinery
design & maintenance,
onshore control centres,
cyber security, design and
verification of the
functionality.
What Rules are Needed? In the instance of a failure, what are the redundancies?
What are the options to stop and stay in position, move to
a safe location, drop anchor, drift, wait for a support
vessel. encountered by the ship or regain remote control?
Fail to Safe condition
Manufacturers and other entities shall follow a robust
design and validation process based on a systems-
engineering approach with the goal of designing the
vessel free of reasonable safety risks.
Verification
Defining, testing and validating a fall back minimal risk
condition in cases of autonomy system failure or failure in
a human operator’s response when transitioning from
automated to manual control.
Minimal Risk Condition
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HYPER LOOPS – Yet another Disruptor?
• low-pressure system that runs inside a tube, with a capsule
that hovers inside this tube, using magnetic force to retain its
position.
• little to no resistance.
• supposed to be very energy efficient.
• more likely to be used to cargo as it is less sensitive to
vibrations and safety issues
• inland transportation purposes (for now).
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Global context – 20 years out
?? GREENING OF THE INDUSTRY
CONTRACTION OF IRON ORE AND
COAL CARGOES
3 D PRINTING REDUCING TRADE OF
GOODS
“VERTICAL INTEGRATION
" IN SUPPLY CHAIN
CYBER CONNECTIVITY & SECURITY
CRYPTO CURRENCIES
& BLOCKCHAIN
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Possible Order of Implementation
Liner routes:
Containers
& Bulk
Bulk Oil & Gas?
Project Cargo and
Remote
Routes or
Ports
Cruise Ships, Pax
Vessels on
irregular
routes
Short Sea (domestic
or bilateral)
both Cargo
& Pax
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Questions
& answers
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Contact Shelley Chapelski
Partner, Norton Rose Fulbright
Janet Grove
Managing Partner, Vancouver, Norton Rose Fulbright
With many thanks to the assistance of DNV GL Vancouver (Anders Mikkelsen)