The Angry Summer Extreme events and climate change
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Transcript of The Angry Summer Extreme events and climate change
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The Angry SummerExtreme events and climate changeProfessor Will Steffen
www.climatecommission.gov.au
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Australia’s Angry Summer
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Heatwaves
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
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January 7th, 2013Bureau of Meteorology 2013
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The Angry Summer – heatwaves
• Severe heatwave across 70% of Australia late Dec 2012 /early Jan 2013. Temperature records set in every state and territory
• Hottest ever area-averaged Australian maximum temperature, 7 January 2013: 40.30 C
• Hottest month on record for Australia – January 2013
• All-time high maximum temperatures at 44 weather stations
• Average daily maximum temperature for the whole of Australia was over 39 C for seven consecutive days (2-8 January)
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Source: Vic DHS 2009
Melbourne 2009 heatwave
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Source: IPCC AR4
Even a small increase in average temperature can cause a big change in hot weather.
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Bushfires
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Fire Weather Index, 8 Jan 2013Source: CAWCR
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The Consequences of Bushfires
• Australia has a long history of bushfires – Black Friday 1939; Ash Wednesday 1983
• In 2003 large and uncontrollable bushfires devastated several suburbs in Canberra
• In 2009 the Black Saturday fires took 173 lives and destroyed over 2,000 houses in Victoria
• In 2013 large bushfires in Tasmania swept into the town of Denalley, destroying nearly 200 properties and forcing the evacuation of hundreds of people from the Tasman Peninsula.
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Bushfires and Climate Change
• Climate change exacerbates bushfire conditions by increasing the frequency of very hot days.
• Between 1973 and 2010 the Forest Fire Danger Index increased significantly at 16 of 38 weather stations across Australia, mostly in the southeast. None of the stations showed a significant decrease.
• Projected increases in hot days across Australia, and in dry conditions in the southwest and southeast, will very likely lead to more days with extreme fire danger in those regions.
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Risks: Water Resources
Source: Bureau of Meteorology
Trends in annual rainfall (mm/10 years) across Australia for the periods 1900-2011 and 1970-2011
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Droughts and Climate Change
• Climate change is likely influencing the drying trend in southwest and southeast Australia via a southwards shift of the rain-bearing fronts from the Southern Ocean in the cooler months.
• These regions are likely to experience more droughts in the future.
• The increasing trend in extreme hot weather due to climate change exacerbates the impacts of drought, intensifying the drought-related heat arising from clear skies and a lack of evaporative cooling.
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Extreme events and climate change
The southeast of Australia, including many ofour largest population centres, stands out asbeing at increased risk from many extremeweather events – heatwaves, bushfires, heavyrainfall and sea-level rise
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Me
My kids
My grandkids?
This is the critical decade for action.
from Prof Lesley Hughes
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www.climatecommission.gov.au