THE ANALYSIS THE ANALYSIS

OF THE RUSSIAN SEGMENT OF THE RUSSIAN SEGMENT

IN THE HADCRUT3 DATABASE.IN THE HADCRUT3 DATABASE.

THE CASE OF METHODOLOGY.THE CASE OF METHODOLOGY.

Natalia PivovarovaNatalia Pivovarova and Andrei Illarionovand Andrei Illarionov

Institute of Economic Analysis,Institute of Economic Analysis,

Moscow, RussiaMoscow, Russia

The Fourth International Conference on Climate Change, The Fourth International Conference on Climate Change,

Chicago, May 18, 2010Chicago, May 18, 2010

© © The Institute of Economic AnalysisThe Institute of Economic Analysis

www.iea.ru

The Institute of Economic Analysiswww.iea.ru

1. December 15, 2009:How Warming is Made. The Case of Russia.http://www.iea.ru/article/kioto_order/15.12.2009.pdf

2. December 27, 2009:The Analysis of the Russian Segment in the HADCRUT3 Database. Data and Sampling Quality.http://www.iea.ru/article/kioto_order/analysis.pps

© ИЭА3

Russia’s Assessment Report 2008, pp. 9, 36:

“Over last 100 years (1907-2006) the average global warming was 0,74°С, while in Russia temperature on average rose 1,29°С.”http://climate2008.igce.ru/

Both numbers are consistent with each other. They are calculated by members of the same international group of climate scientists, who apply the same methodology to the same data from the same databases.

© ИЭА4

The basic methodology for calculation of the global temperature is described in:Jones, P.D., M. New, D.E. Parker, S. Martin, and I.G. Rigor. 1999. Surface air temperature and its changes over the past 150 years. Reviews of Geophysics 37: 173-199. http://www.agu.org/journals/rg/v037/i002/1999RG900002/1999RG900002.pdf

The part of the HADCRUT3 dealing with the land temperature is the database of the Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia (CRU).

Its principal author is Prof. Phil Jones.

© ИЭА5

The 0,74°С increase in the global temperature is the result of application of the Prof. Jones’ methodology to the global data from the HADCRUT3 database.

The 1,29°С increase in the Russian temperature is the result of application of the Prof. Jones’ methodology to the Russian segment in the full HADCRUT3 database.

© ИЭА6

Should we trust these numbers?

Or:

Shall we check them first?

© ИЭА7

Part of the HADCRUT3 global temperature database was released on December 8, 2009

“These data are a subset of the full HadCRUT record of global temperatures, which is one of the global temperature records that have underpinned IPCC assessment reports and numerous scientific studies.

The data subset will consist of a network of individual stations that has been designated by the World Meteorological Organization for use in climate monitoring. The subset of stations is evenly distributed across the globe and provides a fair representation of changes in mean temperature on a global scale over land.

As soon as we have all permissions in place we will release the remaining station records — around 5,000 in total — that make up the full land temperature record. We are dependent on international approvals to enable this final step and cannot guarantee that we will get permission from all data owners.”

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/corporate/pressoffice/2009/pr20091208a.html

© ИЭА8

The Russian Segment of the HADCRUT3 database

released on December 8, 2009

has temperature time-series

for 121 Russian meteorological stations.

© ИЭА9

Also, since December 2008 the Russian Institute of Hydro Meteorological Information/World Data Center (WDC) maintains in public domain the database of temperature time-series from 476 Russian weather

stations selected for international scientific exchange.

WDC web-site: http://meteo.ru/

Presumably, the data from these two databases and the results of their processing

should coincide.

And in some ways they do, indeed!

© ИЭА10

Guess, how many temperature time-series from the individual weather stations one would need to

calculate an average temperature representative for the whole Russian territory

(17,1 mln. sq km, 11,5% of the world land mass)?

476 stations?

121 stations?

37 stations?

Or just 12 stations?

Locations of 476 stations

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

855

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

10

01

05

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01

15

12

01

25

13

01

35

14

01

45

15

01

55

16

01

65

17

01

75

18

01

85

19

01

95

Longtitude

La

titu

de

Location of 121 stations

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

855

10

15

20

25

30

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50

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65

70

75

80

85

90

95

10

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05

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01

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12

01

25

13

01

35

14

01

45

15

01

55

16

01

65

17

01

75

18

01

85

19

01

95

Longtitude

La

titu

de

Location of 37 stations

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

855

10

15

20

25

30

35

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75

80

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95

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13

01

35

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17

01

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18

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19

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Longtitude

La

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Location of 12 stations

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

855

10

15

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Longtitude

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Temperature anomalies for the Russian territory, 1850-2008 (1961-1990 base period), 11-year moving average

-1.2-1.0-0.8

-0.6-0.4-0.20.0

0.20.40.60.8

1.01.21.4

185

0185

5186

0186

5187

0187

5188

0188

5189

0189

5190

0190

5191

0191

5192

0192

5193

0193

5194

0194

5195

0195

5196

0196

5197

0197

5198

0198

5199

0199

5200

0200

5

De

gre

es

C WDC 476 stations

CRU 121 stations

CRU 37 stations

CRU 12 stations

Temperature anomalies for the Russian territory, 1850-2008 (1961-1990 base period), 11-year moving average

-1.2-1.0-0.8

-0.6-0.4-0.20.0

0.20.40.60.8

1.01.21.4

185

0185

5186

0186

5187

0187

5188

0188

5189

0189

5190

0190

5191

0191

5192

0192

5193

0193

5194

0194

5195

0195

5196

0196

5197

0197

5198

0198

5199

0199

5200

0200

5

De

gre

es

C CRU 12 stations

CRU 37 stations

CRU 121 stations

WDC 476 stations

© ИЭА17

By applying the Prof. Jones methodology to the Russian Segment of the HADCRUT3 database or to the Russia’s WDC temperature database one might come to the following conclusion:

The average temperature anomalies based on 476 stations essentially do not differ from the calculations based on data from 121 stations, or 37 stations, or 12 stations.

© ИЭА18

What are those 121, or 37, or 12,

especially miraculous, stations

that are able to offset all the rest ones?

They are the longest existing weather stations

established in 1872 and before,

in large urban centers

with average population of 655 thous. in 2008.

© ИЭА19

Station NameWMO Index

NumberYear of

establishmentNumber of relocations

Population in 2008,

thousands

ST PETERSBURG 26063 1743 1 time 4581

ARCHANGEL'SK 22550 1813 3 times 356

SYKTYVKAR 23804 1817 1 time 245

IRKUTSK 30710 1820 – 576

ORENBOURG(TCHKALOV) 35121 1832 1 time 534

KURSK 34009 1833 1 time 406

ASTRAHAN' 34880 1837 1 time 499

NERCINSKIJ ZAVOD 30879 1839 – 3

NIKOLAYEVSK-NA-AMURE 31369 1854 4 times 25

KEM PORT 22522 1862 – 13

YENISEYSK 29263 1871 15 times 19

VLADIVOSTOK 31960 1872 1 time 610

AVERAGE FOR 12 STATIONS 1872 (*) 2,4 times 655

12 Miraculous Stations

© ИЭА20

It means that for calculating the Russian and then, therefore, Global temperature averages:

• the temperature time-series collected from 97,5% Russian weather stations are excessive,

• the measurements made at the weather stations established after 1872 are unnecessary,

• the quality of data at all those stations doesn’t matter.

© ИЭА21

What matters?

The Methodology.

The Prof. Jones’ Methodology.

What is special in it?

Population size at weather stations and temperature changes from 1921-1945 to 1961-1990.

-0,36

-0,26

0,170,23 0,26

-0,5

-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

None Less than10 thous.

10-50thous.

50-300thous.

More than300 thous.

Population size at weather stations

Te

mp

era

ture

ch

an

ge

, d

eg

ree

s C

Population size at weather stations and temperature changes from 1921-1945 to 1991-2006.

0.31

0.56

0.930.99 0.97

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

None (57) Less than10 thous.

(44)

10-50thous. (28)

50-300thous. (14)

More than300 thous.

(16)

Population size and number of stations

Te

mp

era

ture

ch

an

ge

, d

eg

ree

s C

Population size at weather stations and temperature changes from 1897-1906 to 1997-2006.

1.05

1.12

1.19

1.25

0.95

1.00

1.05

1.10

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

Less than 7thous. (20)

7-20 thous. (20) 20-250 thous.(21)

More than 250thous. (20)

Population size and number of stations

Te

mp

era

ture

ch

an

ge

, de

gre

es

C

Temperature changes from 1897-1906 to 1997-2006 at the 10 stations with the smallest population

and at the 10 stations with the largest population.

0.87

1.35

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

Less than 1 thous. More than 530 thous.

Population size at weather stations

De

gre

es

C

© ИЭА26

Russia’s Assessment Report 2008, pp. 9, 36: “Over last 100 years (1907-2006) the average global warming was 0,74°С, while in Russia temperature on average rose 1,29°С.”http://climate2008.igce.ru/

The 1,29°С increase in temperature is a real one. It is a successfully calculated increase in the temperature at the stations located in the Russian oldest and, as a rule, largest urban centers.

© ИЭА27

If the 1,29°С increase over century

is a measurement of the temperature in the Russian urban centers,

what does the 0,74°С increase in the Global temperature

stand for?