THE AGE OF SCALE
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Transcript of THE AGE OF SCALE
THE AGE OF SCALE
LONDON 2013
I’VE BEEN THINKING A LOT ABOUT SCOPE, SCALE, AND SPEED
SCOPE
WHAT WE CHOOSE TO WORK ON
SCALE
HOW BIG OUR WORK IS
SPEED
THE PACE AT WHICH WE
MOVE
SCOPE SCALE SPEED
THE WORLD HAS CHANGEDIN EXACTLY
THESE THREE WAYS
BUTMOSTGLAMS* HAVEN’T NOTICED
*GALLERIES, LIBRARIES, ARCHIVES, MUSEUMS
MOSTORGS
HAVEN’TNOTICED
WE FORGED OUR DREAMS IN A SIMPLER TIME
WHEN SUCCESS MEANT COLLECTIONS
BUILDINGS
AND STAFF
BUT NOW BILLIONS CAN ENGAGE AND CONTRIBUTE
OUTCOMES THAT WERE ONCEINCONCEIVABLE
HAVE BECOME ROUTINE
AND NEW TOOLSSUGGEST A NEW APPROACH
TO THEMISSION
NEW DREAMS
You can tell a lot about someone’s dreams bywhat they choose to measure… and whatthey measure with.
The Chandra X-Ray Telescope
“We won’t even consider a new project unless it
returns 10x better performance than the last one.”
A Smithsonian Astrophysicist told me
10x farther back to the beginning of the universe.”
returns 10x improvement lets us see “Every
returns 10x(simulation)
The Crab Nebula (composite) http://www.chandra.harvard.edu/photo/2013/w49b/
Let’s make some graphs
10 million people
1 year
Annual attendanceNational Gallery of Art
1978 through 2011
-1% growthover 33 years
Annual attendanceNational Gallery of Art
1978 through 2011
People who don’t visit the NGA
People who do visit the NGA
How you feel about this dependsOn what you think your mission isand how you think about scale.But either way…
There’s a lot of room at the top--Business proverb
How you feel about this dependsOn what you think your mission isand how you think about scale.But either way…
“We won’t even consider a new project unless it
returns 10x better performance than the last one.”
Hypothetical Project X, starts wherethe National Gallery of Art started,
grows at 10% a year for 33 years
Let’s adjust the vertical scale(Zoom out to 500 million)
10 million100 million people
10% annual growth gives you 102 million more visitors/year after 33 years
Wikipedia Unique visits…
Let’s adjust the vertical scale(Zoom out to 6 billion)
Wikipedia Unique visits…
10 million100 million1 billion people
Oops! Wrong scale! This is actually Wikipedia Unique visits …A MONTH!
(Let’s adjust it to unique visits/year)
Wikipedia Unique visits!
(…extrapolated to 12 months, an approximation)
2.4 billion Internet users(34% of world population)
4.6 millionNational Gallery of Art visitors
2.4 billion Internet users(34% of world population)
…A 2.395 billion person difference
A global “audience”of collaborators
(individuals, learners, fans, community) of this scale was not imaginable to an
organization 30 years ago…
But it is now
108.4 million viewers for 2013 Super Bowl
http://www.flickr.com/photos/mbk/2241960032/ (CC BY-NC-SA 2.0) 2013 super bowl: 108.4 million viewers. http://www.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-sn-super-bowl-ratings-20130204,0,4439351.story
108.4 million viewers for 2013 Super Bowl
1,341,882,399 views of Gangnam Style
http://www.youtube.com/user/officialpsy
108.4 million viewers for 2013 Super Bowl
1,341,882,399 views of Gangnam Style
And
growing
http://www.techdirt.com/blog/casestudies/articles/20121209/07431921317/psy-makes-81-million-ignoring-copyright-infringements-gangnam-style.shtml
http://www.techdirt.com/blog/casestudies/articles/20121209/07431921317/psy-makes-81-million-ignoring-copyright-infringements-gangnam-style.shtml
Lucia Gangnam Style http://youtu.be/5R1b1GaY8r4
https://plus.google.com/+TimOReilly/posts/VGhQ5kXZaom
“It seems to me that the potential of YouTube to be a game changer in the media marketplace, a powerful new channel and business model for artists is still not widely understood.”
http://www.fastcompany.com/1146469/youtube-monty-python-videos-boost-dvd-sales-23000 via Merete Sanderhoff (@msanderhoff)
23,000% increase in sales after posting free, high quality clips on YouTube.
http://www.fastcompany.com/1146469/youtube-monty-python-videos-boost-dvd-sales-23000 via Merete Sanderhoff (@msanderhoff)
http://blog.ted.com/2012/11/13/ted-reaches-its-billionth-video-view/
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
Crowd Accelerated Innovation[at 5:50]
“And there are just three things you need for this thing to kick into gear. You can think of them as three dials on a giant wheel. You turn up the dials, the wheel starts to turn.”
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
1) A crowd
“The bigger the crowd, the more potential innovators there are. That’s important, but actually most people in the crowd occupy these other roles. They’re creating the ecosystem from which innovation emerges.”
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
2) Light
“You need clear, open visibility of what the best people in that crowd are capable of, because that is how you will learn how you will be empowered to participate.”
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
2) Light
“You need clear, open visibility of what the best people in that crowd are capable of, because that is how you will learn how you will be empowered to participate.”
Woah! I think this is a profoundly important concept that merits much deeper contemplation (but not here)
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
3) Desire
“…Innovation’s hard work. It’s based on hundreds of hours of research, of practice. Absent desire, it is not going to happen.”
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
Openness [at 6:55]
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
Openness [at 6:55]
“We’ve become a little obsessed with this idea of openness...”
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
1) “We opened up our talks to the world, and suddenly there are millions of people out there helping spread our speakers’ ideas, and thereby making it easier for us to recruit and motivate the next generation of speakers.”
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
2) “By opening up our translation program, thousands of heroic volunteers — some of them watching online right now, and thank you! — have translated our talks into more than 70 languages, thereby tripling our viewership in non-English-speaking countries.”
http://www.ted.com/talks/chris_anderson_how_web_video_powers_global_innovation.html
3) “By giving away our TEDx brand, we suddenly have a thousand-plus live experiments in the art of spreading ideas. And these organizers, they’re seeing each other, they’re learning from each other. We are learning from them. We’re getting great talks back from them. The wheel is turning.”
http://www.ted.com/pages/tedx_in_a_box
http://www.ted.com/pages/tedx_in_a_box
Wikipedia 1.8 billion edits
http://toolserver.org/~emijrp/wikimediacounter/
SpaceShipOne: owned by the Smithsonian, but on Wikipedia…
1,414 words, 128 hyperlinks, 15 images, 14 external references, 26 languages, ~400 editors
2006 (Attitudes have changed!
“[Somebody who reads Wikipedia is] rather in the position of a visitor to a public restroom. It may be obviously dirty, so that he knows to exercise great care, or it may seem fairly clean, so that he may be lulled into a false sense of security. What he certainly does not know is who has used the facilities before him.” Robert McHenry, a former editor-in-chief of
the Encyclopaedia Britannica
2006 (Attitudes have changed!
http://www.openstreetmap.org/ | http://wiki.openstreetmap.org/wiki/Stats | http://www.openstreetmap.org/browse/changeset/14947636
Over 900,000 registered usershave contributed 14 million edits
and 1.6 billion locations
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/17/technology/internet/17maps.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/11/17/technology/internet/17maps.html
“’It is a huge shift,’” said Michael F. Goodchild, a professor of geography at the University of California, Santa Barbara. ‘This is putting mapping where it should be, which is the hands of local people who know an area well.’”
“That is changing the dynamics of an industry…”
http://www.kickstarter.com/year/2012
http://www.kickstarter.com/year/2012
In 2012…2,241,475 people from 177 counties pledged $319,786,629 to support 18,109 projects
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/magazine/why-would-you-ever-give-money-through-kickstarter.html?smid=go-share&_r=1 &
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/10/magazine/why-would-you-ever-give-money-through-kickstarter.html?smid=go-share&_r=1 &
“…it provides something increasingly rare in today’s society: a platform for an essentially noneconomic transaction, the kind that builds friendships and communities. Kickstarter…is baffling by the tenets of a self-serving marketplace.”
“…it provides something increasingly rare in today’s society: a platform for an essentially noneconomic transaction, the kind that builds friendships and communities. Kickstarter…is baffling by the tenets of a self-serving marketplace.”
“…it provides something increasingly rare in today’s society: a platform for an essentially noneconomic transaction, the kind that builds friendships and communities. Kickstarter…is baffling by the tenets of a self-serving marketplace.”
There is an increasing amount of“private space masquerading as public space”
John Palfrey, Harvard Berkman CenterDigital Public Library of America
http://www.kickstarter.com/year/2012
http://europeana.eu/
“Scale is really at the heart of the business model for Europeana”
Harry VerwayenBusiness Development Director
Europeana
Over 20 million CC-0 RecordsOver 2,400 content providers
http://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm
http://ocw.mit.edu/index.htm
This order of magnitude is visible
at web scale
http://www.theartnewspaper.com/articles/China%E2%80%99s+new+Age+of+Enlightenment/23495
http://www.theartnewspaper.com/articles/China%E2%80%99s+new+Age+of+Enlightenment/23495
China is scaling museum construction to a degree
that I can barelycomprehend…
http://www.economist.com/node/9339948
China is scaling museum construction to a degree
that I can barelycomprehend…
http://www.economist.com/node/9339948
1,000 new museums between 2000 and 2015
THAT’S ONE NEW MUSEUM OPENING EVERY
FIVE DAYS FOR 15 YEARS
“without users,our shelves are empty”
Brewster Kahle
“The people who are supposedto be doing universal access
to knowledge, and are getting$12b a year to do it, are not
getting the job done”
Brewster Kahle
1.6 million members81 million books96 million tags
2.1 million reviews3.9 million talk/comments
User “ending2012” has added/cataloged 65,535 books
User “bluetyson” haswritten 35,779 reviews
User “ThomasKleinert” hasadded 144,973 tags
“Library is not aninstitutional thing:anyone who has a largecollection of books hasa library.”
Tim Spalding
IS SCALE JUST FOR BIG ORGANIZATIONS?
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCO9Q5_D6tItyoilmDogexng
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCO9Q5_D6tItyoilmDogexng
Public.Resource.Org is a small non-profit that helps make public/government information available to all.
In one project, they ask US government entities to send them old analog videos, which they rip and put online.
http://www.youtube.com/channel/UCO9Q5_D6tItyoilmDogexng
20 million views on YouTube20 million views on Internet ArchiveMORE VIDEO than all but 3 U.S.A government agencies“Me in my spare time and a couple of volunteers”
--Carl Malamud
http://smarthistory.khanacademy.org/
”A free, not-for-profit, multi-media web-book designed as a dynamic enhancement (or even substitute) for the traditional art history textbook.” http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rebecca-taylor/smarthistory_b_785154.html
http://smarthistory.khanacademy.org/
512 videos247 essays6 million visitsViewed in 200 countriesTech budget of $700 + two laptops
http://smarthistory.khanacademy.org/
http://www.youtube.com/user/smarthistoryvideos
http://www.youtube.com/user/smarthistoryvideos
”As professors, we reach 200 students a semester.” -- Beth Harris
Last semester, Smarthistory content reached 750,000 users
http://www.youtube.com/user/smarthistoryvideos
”As professors, we reach 200 students a semester.” -- Beth Harris
Last semester, Smarthistory content reached 750,000 users
SPECIAL KINDS OF SCALE
http://dml2013.dmlhub.net/content/videos-day-1-keynote-ignite-talks
http://dml2013.dmlhub.net/content/videos-day-1-keynote-ignite-talks
symbolic impactful
thin
thick
http://dml2013.dmlhub.net/content/videos-day-1-keynote-ignite-talks
symbolic impactful
thin
thick
SLACKTIVISMExample: liking a cause
on Facebook
http://dml2013.dmlhub.net/content/videos-day-1-keynote-ignite-talks
symbolic impactful
thin
thick
VotingDesigned to be easy foreveryone, but impactful
http://dml2013.dmlhub.net/content/videos-day-1-keynote-ignite-talks
symbolic impactful
thin
thick
OCCUPY…The “occupy” movement isa lot of work, but they’re not
directly working on proposing new policies
symbolic impactful
thin
thickhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Occupy_Sandy
Occupy SandyAfter hurricane Sandy,
experienced occupy membersbecame a highly effective local
aid team
symbolic impactful
thin
thick
easy to scale
hard to scale
http://www.shakespearebehindbars.com/
OTHER KINDS OF SCALE
Scale has a Z axis
X
Y
ZThe Z axis, depth, is foremotion and impact on individuals.
OTHER KINDS OF SCALE
Scale has a Z axis
X
Y
ZThe Z axis, depth, is foremotion and impact on individuals.
It scales, not in quantities of individuals served, but in howdeeply we affect them.
OTHER KINDS OF SCALE
http://metrotimes.com/arts/behind-bars-with-the-bard-1.1371708
http://metrotimes.com/arts/behind-bars-with-the-bard-1.1371708
“Inmates who have been involved in the program say they experience a profound personal growth through it, first by recognizing the depths of their own emotions, then by connecting with fellow prisoners through the camaraderie of sharing a stage.”
http://metrotimes.com/arts/behind-bars-with-the-bard-1.1371708
“…Those benefits are hard to quantify, but they have a big effect on a number that isn't. Participants in the Shakespeare Behind Bars program have drastically lowered recidivism rates to a low of 7 percent, [compared to a] national recidivism rate at 43 percent.”
AND MISSIONS CAN BE SHAPEDIN DRAMATIC NEW WAYS
THE Z AXISCan you deepen the experiencesof the people you already serve?
http://www.yongestreetmedia.ca/features/humanbooks1208.aspx
AND MISSIONS CAN BE SHAPEDIN DRAMATIC NEW WAYS
http://www.yongestreetmedia.ca/features/humanbooks1208.aspx
AND MISSIONS CAN BE SHAPEDIN DRAMATIC NEW WAYS
http://www.yongestreetmedia.ca/features/humanbooks1208.aspx
“The Toronto Public Library held its first Human Library event at five branches on Nov. 6, attracting more than 200 users who checked out the likes of a police officer, a comedian, a sex-worker-turned-club-owner, a model and a survivor of cancer, homelessness and poverty.”
SPECIAL KINDS OF SCALE
0 to 1
http://channelviewpublications.wordpress.com/2013/01/24/education-and-literacy-in-ethiopia/
SPECIAL KINDS OF SCALE
0 to 1
Going from the total absence of something to the basic presence of it is its own kind of scale.
http://channelviewpublications.wordpress.com/2013/01/24/education-and-literacy-in-ethiopia/
Room to Read is a non-profit that builds libraries and schools in places where literacy and education are wanted, but absent.
• 850 million people lack basic literacy(2/3 are women)
• 100 million primary age kids are not in school.
UN Estimates via http://books.google.com/books?isbn=006112107X
Distributed 10 million booksBuilt 12,000 librariesBuilt 3,200 schools
Since 1998 Room to Read has…
“There are no books for kids in some languages, so we had to become a self-publisher,” Wood explains. […]
Room to Read has, so far, published 591 titles in languages including Khmer, Nepalese, Zulu, Lao, Xhosa, Chhattisgarhi, Tharu, Tsonga, Garhwali and Bundeli.
“In 20 years,” [founder John Wood] told me, “I’d like to have 100,000 libraries, reaching 50 million kids.
“In 20 years,” [founder John Wood] told me, “I’d like to have 100,000 libraries, reaching 50 million kids. Our 50-year goal is to reverse the notion that any child can be told ‘you were born in the wrong place at the wrong time and so you will not get educated.’ That idea belongs on the scrapheap of human history.”
CULTURAL IMPOVRISHMENT ISN’TJUST A 3RD WORLD THING
IT EXISTS EVERYWHERE
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2012/dec/10/uk-lost-200-libraries-2012
http://www.guardian.co.uk/books/2012/dec/10/uk-lost-200-libraries-2012
"Working men and women in the north-east have fought, generation after generation, for the right to read and grow intellectually, culturally and socially – to be as 'civilized' as anyone else. It is a heritage that took decades and decades to come to fruition but will be wiped out in a moment. You are not only about to make philistines of yourselves, but philistines of us all."
Billy Elliot playwright Lee Hall
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/caitlin-moran/libraries-cathedrals-of-o_b_2103362.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003&utm_hp_ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=
false
Everything I am is based on this ugly building on its lonely lawn--lit up during winter darkness; open in the slashing rain--which allowed a girl so poor she didn't even own a purse to come in twice a day and experience actual magic: traveling through time, making contact with the dead--Dorothy Parker, Stella Gibbons, Charlotte Brontë, Spike Milligan.
A library in the middle of a community is a cross between an emergency exit, a life raft and a festival.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/caitlin-moran/libraries-cathedrals-of-o_b_2103362.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003&utm_hp_ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=
false
No new libraries will be built to replace them. These libraries will be lost forever.
And, in their place, we will have thousands more public spaces where you are simply the money in your pocket, rather than the hunger in your heart. Kids--poor kids--will never know the fabulous, benign quirk of self-esteem of walking into "their" library and thinking, "I have read 60 percent of the books in here. I am awesome." Libraries that stayed open during the Blitz will be closed by budgets.
A trillion small doors closing.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/caitlin-moran/libraries-cathedrals-of-o_b_2103362.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003&utm_hp_ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=
false
No new libraries will be built to replace them. These libraries will be lost forever.
And, in their place, we will have thousands more public spaces where you are simply the money in your pocket, rather than the hunger in your heart. Kids--poor kids--will never know the fabulous, benign quirk of self-esteem of walking into "their" library and thinking, "I have read 60 percent of the books in here. I am awesome." Libraries that stayed open during the Blitz will be closed by budgets.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/caitlin-moran/libraries-cathedrals-of-o_b_2103362.html?ncid=edlinkusaolp00000003&utm_hp_ref=fb&src=sp&comm_ref=
false
http://danielsolisblog.blogspot.com/2011/01/cutting-libraries-in-recession-is-like.html
We love our museums, libraries, and archivesWe want them to be successful
We love our museums, libraries, and archivesWe want them to be successful
We need them to be super successful
PUT THE TOOLS OF KNOWLEDGE CREATIONINTO MORE HANDS
SHARE THE JOY AND MEANING OF ARTISTIC ANDCULTURAL EXPLORATION WITH MORE CITIZENS
DEEPEN ENGAGEMENT WITH THE CHALLENGESTHAT FACE OUR SPECIES
NURTURE THE HABITS OF A CIVILAND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY
PUT THE TOOLS OF KNOWLEDGE CREATION
INTO MORE HANDS
SHARE THE JOY AND MEANING OF ARTISTIC AND
CULTURAL EXPLORATION WITH MORE CITIZENS
NURTURE THE HABITS OF A CIVIL
AND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY
DEEPEN ENGAGEMENT WITH THE CHALLENGES
THAT FACE OUR SPECIES
PUT THE TOOLS OF KNOWLEDGE CREATION
INTO MORE HANDS
SHARE THE JOY AND MEANING OF ARTISTIC AND
CULTURAL EXPLORATION WITH MORE CITIZENS
NURTURE THE HABITS OF A CIVIL
AND SUSTAINABLE SOCIETY
DEEPEN ENGAGEMENT WITH THE CHALLENGES
THAT FACE OUR SPECIES
This is our job in society… But can we do this
quickly enough and at big enough SCALE to make a substantial difference in the lives of Individuals and the fate our our species?
Many museum visits are...
imperfect
Scale can be confusingIf scale matters, are 1 billion TED videosbetter than 2.4 million museum visits?
Not necessarily, but the vast differencein scale is evidence that something significant—rich in potential—is going on
There are more powerful ways of accomplishingmuseum missions thangetting people throughthe doors.
“Anything is scalable”http://www.wired.com/business/2013/01/ff-qa-larry-page/all/
Larry Page
http://www.wired.com/business/2013/01/ff-qa-larry-page/all/
“Page expects his employees to create products and services that are 10 times better than the competition. That means he isn’t satisfied with discovering a couple of hidden efficiencies or tweaking code to achieve modest gains. Thousand-percent improvement requires rethinking problems entirely, exploring the edges of what’s technically possible, and having a lot more fun in the process.”
“Page expects his employees to create products and services that are 10 times better than the competition. That means he isn’t satisfied with discovering a couple of hidden efficiencies or tweaking code to achieve modest gains. Thousand-percent improvement requires rethinking problems entirely, exploring the edges of what’s technically possible…”
We have all this money, we have all these people, why aren’t we doing more stuff? You may say that Apple only does a very, very small number of things, and that’s working pretty well for them. But I find that unsatisfying. I feel like there are all these opportunities in the world to use technology to make people’s lives better. At Google we’re attacking maybe 0.1 percent of that space. And all the tech companies combined are only at like 1 percent. That means there’s 99 percent virgin territory.
We have all this money, we have all these people, why aren’t we doing more stuff? You may say that Apple only does a very, very small number of things, and that’s working pretty well for them. But I find that unsatisfying. I feel like there are all these opportunities in the world to use technology to make people’s lives better. At Google we’re attacking maybe 0.1 percent of that space. And all the tech companies combined are only at like 1 percent. That means there’s 99 percent virgin territory.
This “small scale/boutique” rationale is often used by GLAMs to avoid the challenge of scale and speed
We have all this money, we have all these people, why aren’t we doing more stuff? You may say that Apple only does a very, very small number of things, and that’s working pretty well for them. But I find that unsatisfying. I feel like there are all these opportunities in the world to use technology to make people’s lives better. At Google we’re attacking maybe 0.1 percent of that space. And all the tech companies combined are only at like 1 percent. That means there’s 99 percent virgin territory.
We have all this money, we have all these people, why aren’t we doing more stuff? You may say that Apple only does a very, very small number of things, and that’s working pretty well for them. But I find that unsatisfying. I feel like there are all these opportunities in the world to use technology to make people’s lives better. At Google we’re attacking maybe 0.1 percent of that space. And all the tech companies combined are only at like 1 percent. That means there’s 99 percent virgin territory.
We have all this money, we have all these people, why aren’t we doing more stuff? You may say that Apple only does a very, very small number of things, and that’s working pretty well for them. But I find that unsatisfying. I feel like there are all these opportunities in the world to use technology to make people’s lives better. At Google we’re attacking maybe 0.1 percent of that space. And all the tech companies combined are only at like 1 percent. That means there’s 99 percent virgin territory.
Larry Page
We have all this money, we have all these people, why aren’t we doing more stuff? You may say that Apple only does a very, very small number of things, and that’s working pretty well for them. But I find that unsatisfying. I feel like there are all these opportunities in the world to use technology to make people’s lives better. At Google we’re attacking maybe 0.1 percent of that space. And all the tech companies combined are only at like 1 percent. That means there’s 99 percent virgin territory.
Larry Page
There’s a lot of room at the top!
DON’T GET ME WRONG
I DON’T WANT LESS 1:1 ENGAGEMENT
I WANT MORE OF EVERYTHING
MORE GLAMSMORE VISITORS
DEEPER ENGAGEMENT
MORE WEBMORE PARTICIPATIONBETTER OUTCOMES
And when we do, new opportunities present themselves…
WE CAN GO TO 11
THANK YOU