The Age of CryptoFinance - uem.com Blockchain/ETHalumni Blockchain … · Percent of total adult...
Transcript of The Age of CryptoFinance - uem.com Blockchain/ETHalumni Blockchain … · Percent of total adult...
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The Age of CryptoFinanceHow CryptoFinance will transform the world
Johann Gevers, Founder and [email protected]
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Economics always wins.
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TerrorismFinancial crisesCorrupt governmentsNatural disastersClimate change
Problems
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1. Trade barriers
2. Health (contraception, disease,malnutrition)
3. Education (illiteracy)
— Copenhagen Consensus
The World’s Biggest Problems
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Removing trade barriers is
over 30 times more effective
than any other intervention.
— Copenhagen Consensus
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Free trade is
50 times more effective
than democracy at reducing violent conflict.
— Economic Freedom of the World 2005 Report
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Wealth creationis the fundamental driver
of individual and social well-being.
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How do we build wealth?
1. Greater security of property2. Lower transaction costs3. Larger economic networks
Þ Greater division of labor and specializationÞ Higher productivityÞ Rising wealth creation and standard of living
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1. Secure Property Rights
Development is very complex. But if you do not have an order that tells you who owns what, none of the rest works.
— Hernando de Soto
Two-thirds of the world’s population — four billion people — are locked out of the capitalist system.
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2. Efficient Trade
A mere 0.1% reduction in transaction costsquadruples a country’s wealth— the difference between Argentinaand Switzerland.
Low transaction costs are the fundamental driver of economic growth.
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0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use formal financial services
Estimates used to calculate regional averages
0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use formal financial services
Estimates used to calculate regional averages
Fully 2.5 billion of the world’s adults don’t use formal banks or semiformal microfinance institutions to save or borrow money, our research finds. Nearly 2.2 billion of these unserved adults live in Africa, Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East. Unserved, however, does not mean unservable.
To read the full report, Half the World is Unbanked, visit sso.mckinsey.com/unbanked.
Counting the world’s unbanked
Alberto Chaia, Tony Goland, and Robert Schiff
Alberto Chaia is a principal in McKinsey’s Mexico City office, Tony Goland is a director in the Washington, DC, office, and Robert Schiff is a consultant in the New York office.
The microfinance movement, for example, has long helped expand credit use among the world’s poor—reaching more than 150 million clients in 2008 alone.1 Similarly, we find that of the approximately 1.2 billion adults in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East who use formal or semiformal credit or
savings products, about 800 million live on less than $5 a day. Large unserved populations represent opportunities for institutions that are able to offer an innovative range of high-quality, affordable financial products and ser- vices. Moreover, with the right financial education and support to make good
choices, lower-income consumers will benefit from credit, savings, insurance, and payments products that help them invest in economic opportunities, better manage their money, reduce risks, and plan for the future.
Sub-Saharan Africa 326 million adults
Middle East 136 million adults
Latin America 250 million adults
East Asia, Southeast Asia876 million adults
South Asia 612 million adults
Central Asia & Eastern Europe 193 million adults
High-income OECD countries60 million adults(Members of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)
Percentage of total adult population who do not use formal or semiformal financial services
80%
67%65%
49%59%
58%8%
Total2,455 million adults
53%
0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use formal financial services
Estimates used to calculate regional averages0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use formal financial services
Estimates used to calculate regional averages0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use formal financial services
Estimates used to calculate regional averages0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use formal financial services
Estimates used to calculate regional averages
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East
East Asia
South Asia
Adults who use formal or semiformal financial services, millions of adults
332 283
<$5/day >$5/day
396 45
56 25
4526
Yet serving adults who live on less than $5 a day is not only possible at scale—to a large degree, it is already happening.
Source: McKinsey research conducted in partnership with the Financial Access Initiative (a consortium of researchers at New York University, Harvard, Yale, and Innovations for Poverty Action); we relied on financial usage data from Patrick Honohan, “Cross-country variation in household access to financial services,” Journal of Banking & Finance, 2008, Volume 32, Number 11, pp. 2493–500.
The unbanked are not unservable
1 According to the Microcredit Summit Campaign, a leading advocacy group.
0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use formal financial services
Estimates used to calculate regional averages
Adjusted for purchasing-power parity
3. Economic Network Size=> Global Financial Inclusion
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We need a version 2.0of the financial system.
— Andrew Lo
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Two Problem-Solving Paradigms
1. People-based systems2. Technology-based systems
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Finance 2.0
Replacing expensive, fallible people-based systemswith cheap, reliable technology-based systems
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What if we could develop a
technology
that
§ secures property rights§ reduces trading costs§ integrates people into the global economy?
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CryptoFinance
Uses cryptographic (encryption) algorithms to:
§ secure property§ reduce trading costs§ enlarge economic network size
and thereby:
Þ extends division of labor & specializationÞ raises productivity of laborÞ dramatically boosts wealth creation and
quality of life.
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CryptoFinance
will catalyze
the greatest explosion of wealth creation the world has ever seen.
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The Long Tail of the efficient digital economy
Low Cost> Big Profits
High Cost> Small Profits
PRIC
E (re
venu
e, co
st) p
er u
nit
QUANTITY (volume) sold
ShortHead Long Tail
SP
SP
CP
CP SP = selling priceCP = cost price
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Finance 2.0The Democratization of Finance
The financial system is at the epicenter of a fundamental transformation that is radically
changing geopolitics.
Digitization enables tremendous efficiency gainsand universal financial inclusion
resulting in vastly greater wealth creationand the elimination of poverty.
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Cheques Credit cards
Debit orders Internet banking
Real-time interbank
settlement
Federated contract systems
Banknotes
1960
Bartering Coins
1975 1980 1996
Consensus blockchains
PhysicalPeer-to-Peerpre-automation
Switching, Clearing & Settlement partial automation
Cheques
ATM cards
Debit cards
1983 1994 2000
RTC
2005
DigitalPeer-to-Peer full automation
1694500 BC 1717
2009 2017
The Evolution of Finance
2013
In the beginning
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The CryptoFinance Ecosystemin greater detail
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Society — Structure and Process
1. Rules of the Game(framework of freedom)> politics / laww social consensus
2. The Game(production of prosperity)> economics, entrepreneurshipw individual contracts
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The CryptoFinance Ecosystem
§ probabilistic consensus systems (e.g. Bitcoin)ü community standards and infrastructure✗ slow, expensive, limited scalability, public> digital assets, property registries, identity systems,
inflation-proof currencies, immutable data, ...
§ deterministic contract systems (e.g. Monetas)ü trading partiesü fast, cheap, unlimited scalability, private> secure, efficient retail transactions, micropayments,
resource allocation, internet of things, ...
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Consensus technologies andContract technologies
are complementaryand synergistic
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Best of both worlds
Store assets securely in consensus systems> asset layer
Trade assets efficiently in contract systems> transaction layer
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The Evolution of Blockchains
1st generation > Bitcoin> solves decentralized consensus
through PoW (proof of work) algorithm
2nd generation > Ethereum> adds smart contracts
3rd generation > Tezos> adds decentralized governance,
efficient PoS (proof of stake) algorithm,and high security technology
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Consensus systems(Bitcoin)
Contractsystems(Monetas)
contract vs consensus
Speed 10 min to 18 hrs milliseconds 1 000 xfaster
Cost USD 10/tr 1/1 000th cent/tr 1 000 000 x cheaper
Scalability 7 tr/sec millions tr/sec 1 000 000 x more scalable
Transaction Platforms:Contract Systems superior to Consensus Systems
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The Architecture of all Transaction Systems
Notary
Sender Receiver
What differentiates transaction systems is their notary architecture
◀
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centralized monopoly(client-server)
federated coopetition
(hybrid)
distributed consensus(peer-to-peer)
ü semi-efficient ü efficient ✗ inefficient✗ fragile ü prosilient ü resilient✗ single provider ü multiple providers ✗ single provider✗ single point of
attack and failureü best of both worlds:
the golden mean✗ not scalable as
transaction platform
Types of Notary Architectures / Social Structures
N N
N
U
U
UU
U
U
U U U U UU
N
N
NN
N
NN
U U U U UU
N = notaryU = user
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The world’s global distribution platform:The mobile phone
Cryptographically secure, decentralizedcommunication and trading systems
— delivered globally via the mobile phone —become the enabler of
individual freedom and prosperity.
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Radical Transformation of
Financial systemsCommunications systems
Production systemsGovernments and Legal systems
Explosion of Wealth creation
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How fast is this coming?
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nonlinear second-orderpositive feedback=> double exponential
acceleration
Kurzweil’s Law of Accelerating Returns
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Progress at rate of year 2000:
➤ 25 years in 20th century
➤ 20 000 years in 21st century
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Facebook went from startup in 2004to $100 billion global giant in 7 years
iPhone launched in 2007and transformed the world in 5 years
Cryptofinance services launching in 2017will completely transform finance by 2022
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The financial industry,and central banks,
are facing“Swatch or Nokia?”
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The Future of Cash
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The Hidden Cost of Physical Cash
Developed countries: 1–2% of GDPDeveloping countries: 5–7% of GDP
— Reserve Bank of India
Billions of people are un(der)banked — no access to formal financial services (savings products, insurance, etc.)
The unbanked lose 15–25% of their savings every yearWhy save if the savings will be lost anyway?
=> The un(der)banked stay poor
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The Promise of Digital Cash
Central bank digital currency will lead to an increasein the steady-state level of GDP of almost 3%.
— Bank of England
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Physical Cash Digital Cash
Expensive Cheap
Insecure Secure
Local face-to-face only Local and remote transactions
Simple payments only Advanced financial services
Untraceable > crime Traceable > accountability
Digital Cash vs Physical Cash
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The Key Innovation in Cryptofinance:
Digital Bearer Instruments
A bearer instrument is a contractthat entitles the holder to ownership
of the property described in the contract.
No ownership or transaction information is recordedin the instrument itself — whoever holds the instrument
is the owner of the property.
e.g. digital cash or digital tokens
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The Big Story
The invention of digital bearer instruments enables the creation of true digital wallets
— making traditional accounts unnecessary.
=> Fundamental shiftfrom centralized, provider-centric, account-based systems
to decentralized, user-centric, wallet-based systems
This changes everything.
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$20
Wallet-basedsystems
$20
Account-basedsystems
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Users transact directly:=> real-time value transfer=> peer-to-peer exchange of value between wallets- without an intermediary- without accounts- without liabilities / counterparty risk> no reconciliation> no clearing> no settlement> less compliance costs
True Digital Wallets > No settlement requiredPayment = Settlement
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The digitization of bearer instruments enables value to flow instantly and at negligible cost via the internet
Payment Message
RecordProcess
ReconcileClearSettle
Value Transfer
Instant Transfer via Digital Bearer Instruments
TODAY TOMORROW
Debts <> Accounts Asset tokens <> Wallets
Far lower infrastructure and compliance costs and risks
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The Future of Financial Services
Financial services providersoffer advanced financial services
based on digital tokensstored in true digital wallets
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The Role of Central Banks
Central banks issue national currencies on anopen cryptofinance platform — digital legal tender
> Financial services operators can leverage their niche, while benefiting from a unified global system
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Central Bank Digital Currency
Bank of England sees big benefits:• 3% boost to GDP• New tool for central banks to
manage business cycles • Greater control of interest rates for
consumers • Reduction in systemic risk due to
fractional reserve banking
McKinsey estimates:• $3.7 trillion GDP boost to emerging economies in decade • $110 billion per year reduced leakage in public spending and tax collection• $400 billion per year cost savings for financial services providers
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Central banks shifting to digital systems
The majority of the world’s central banks (over 90)are now working on a central bank digital currency.
— World Economic Forum
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<$1$1-5
>$5
The Transaction Business
Where is the volume?
In Kenya, 80% of all transactions are less than $5In Switzerland, the average transaction size is $27
In the internet of things, transactions will be fractions of a cent
80/20 rule:most transactions are small
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Current electronic systems aretoo expensive for daily transactions
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
$0.00 $0.01 $0.10 $0.25 $0.50 $1.00 $2.50 $5.00
Transaction Amount
Fee
Monetas
A
B
C, D
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Still surprised that people prefer physical cash and resist electronic systems?
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Monetas is the first transaction platform that can compete with physical cash:
ü Requires no bank accountü Instant settlement
ü Cheaper than physical cash
And it offers features physical cashcannot match:
ü Securityü Smart contracts
ü Global payments and trade
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What is a transaction?
A transaction is a legal agreement> a contract
Transaction systems arecontracting systems.
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Today’s transaction systems can only handlenarrow categories of transactions,
leading to a fragmented, inefficient transaction ecosystem.
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Beyond simple payments:The universal transaction platform
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Monetas has built a universal contracting platform.
It handles all types of transactionson a unified, efficient, open global platform.
A universal platform for global commerce.
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Invest-ments
Savings
Credit
Insurance
Payments
Financial Services Pyramid
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Standardized Financial Contracts
Major breakthrough
§ 5 fundamental building blocks§ 32 standard contracts cover all use cases
Dramatic simplification, standardization, risk reduction, and efficiency gains across the financial system
ü Being built into the Monetas platform
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MonetasA universal platform for global commerce
Open, standards-based:§ All financial instruments, all national and digital currencies§ Interoperable across instruments, platforms, and borders
Globally scalable, high performance:§ Processes entire world’s transactions (millions per second)
in real time on low-cost distributed server infrastructure
Automated compliance:§ Regulatory standards enforced in real time on all transactions
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The Opportunity for the Financial Industry
Cryptofinance technologies solve critical problemsand enable financial institutions to refocus on their
core strengths:
§ Trusted financial partner§ Integrated financial services
Leapfrog expensive brick-and-mortar infrastructureand reach billions of new customers.
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Crypto Valley
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A new generation of visionary entrepreneurs is building
Society 3.0
Join Us.
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The Age of CryptoFinanceA new era in human social evolution
The Technology of Trust
The transformationof our world