THE ADAPTATION OF ITU-T FORECASTING RULES TO THE COUNTRIES UNDER SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES

Accession number:

ANO

Identification number:

INO

Document type:

DT

Monographic

Type of record:

TR

Printed

Contents code:

CC

Doctor thesis

Author:

AU

Konstantinos Papamargaritis

Menthor/Comenthor

MN

Prof. Dr Vladimir Kovačević

Title:

TI

The adaptation of ITU-T forecasting

rules to the countries under special

circumstances

Language of text:

LT

English

Language of abstract:

LA

English

Country of publication:

CP

Yugoslavia

Locality of publication:

LP

Vojvodina

Publication year:

PY

2002

Publisher:

PU

Faculty of Technical Sciences

Publication Place:

PP

21000 Novi Sad, Trg Dositeja

Obradovića

Physical description:

(chapters/pages/ref./tables/pictures/graphs/

appendixes)

PD

3/144/41/26/0/30/0

Scientific field:

SF

Electrical Engineering

Scientific discipline:

SD

Communication networking

Subject/Key words:

SKW

Telecommunications, forecasting,

demand, traffic, ISDN, refugees, ITU-T

methodology

UC

Holding data:

HD

The Library of the Faculty of Technical

Sciences

Note:

N

Abstract:

A

In this thesis the ITU-T methodology of

subscriber, traffic and ISDN forecasting

rules are adapted to countries exiting

from war and the influence of refugees is

examined.

Accepted by the Scientific Board on:

ASB

13/4/2002

Defended on:

DE

Thesis defend board:

DB

President: Prof. Dr Vladimir Kovačević

Member: Prof. Dr Slavko Svirčević

Member: Prof. Dr Nemad Simić

Member: Prof. Dr Zarko Markov

Member: Prof. Dr Miroslav Popović

UNIVERSITY OF NOVI SAD

FACULTY OF TECHNICAL SCIENCES COMPUTER CONTROL &

MEASUREMENTS INSTITUTE

“THE ADAPTATION OF ITU-T FORECASTING RULES

TO THE COUNTRIES UNDER SPECIAL

CIRCUMSTANCES”

DOCTOR THESIS

K. PAPAMARGARITIS

NOVI SAD 2002

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The present thesis was carried-out in the period November 1999 to July 2002, under

the supervision of the Faculty of Technical Sciences Computer Control &

Measurements Institute of the University of Novi Sad.

I would like to express my gratitude to the members of the Thesis Defend Board. Prof.

Dr Vladimir Kovačević was my Menthor, his support was a key factor for carrying-

out my task. This thesis wouldn’t have been realized without the ideas, the

supervision and the encouragement of prof. Dr Slavko Svirčević. His experience and

his confidence were crucial for this work. Profs. Dr Zarko Markov and Miroslav

Popović have greatly contributed with remarks and suggestions.

Moreover, I would like to express my gratitude to some of my colleagues. First of all I

would like to thank Mr. Slobodan Karisik of Telecom Srbja for guiding me in the

“Republic” in difficult hours for its population. During the years he proved to be a

precious friend. The guidance in the PTT of the “Republic” had been realised under

the supervision and with the help of Mr. Radovan Kovačević, General Director of

“PTT Republic”, his hospitality has deeply touched me.

Slobodan Lukić, Miladin Marković, Milenko Jovičić and Stevo Kovačević, colleagues

of “PTT Republic” have worked with me in collecting telecommunication data under

extremely difficult circumstances in a network that suffered damages from the war. In

a very short period they managed to rehabilitate this network. I am honoured by their

friendship.

All the demographic data concerning the “Republic were kindly supplied by prof. Dr

Vladimir Lukić of the University of Banja Luka. I want to thank him for the effort he

put, but most of all for his warm hospitality and the discussions we had.

My colleagues in OTE (Department of Switching Maintenance) created the necessary

conditions to help me realize the present thesis. Especially, I would like to thank Dr.

Spyros Alexiou for his assistance in the software I used and for valuable remarks.

Last, but not least I would like to thank my wife, Dr. Eleni Dara Research Director of

Academy of Athens, for her help and encouragement during the whole “trip” of the

present thesis.

CONTENTS

Page

1. INTRODUCTION 9

1.1 PREFACE 9

1.1.1 Purpose of the Present Forecasting 10

1.1.2 Plans 11

1.1.2.1 Technical Plans 12

1.1.2.2 Financial Plans 14

1.2 DESCRIPTION of FORECASTING METHODS 14

1.2.1 Basic Concepts of Forecasting 15

1.2.1.1 Network’s Development versus Time 15

1.2.1.1.1 Starting Phase 15

1.2.1.1.2 Rapid Growth Phase 17

1.2.1.1.3 Saturation Phase 17

1.2.1.2 Economic Factors Influencing Telephone Density 17

1.2.1.3 Separation of Demand in Business and Residential 20

1.2.1.4 Localization of Demand 21

1.2.2 Forecasting Techniques 21

1.2.2.1 Mathematical Models 22

1.2.2.2 Time Series Models 24

1.2.2.2.1 Analysis of Historical Data 24

1.2.2.2.2 Analysis of Future Trends 26

1.2.2.3 Econometric Models 26

1.2.2.3.1 Influencing Factors 29

1.2.3 Subscriber Demand Forecasting 32

1.2.4 Traffic Forecasting 33

1.2.4.1 Theoretical Analysis of Traffic Forecasting 35

1.2.4.1.1 Exchange Traffic Forecasting 35

1.2.4.1.2 Analysis of Initial Data 35

1.2.4.1.3 Evolution of Calling Rates 35

1.2.4.1.4 Aggregation of Calling Rates on the Parent Exchanges 36

1.2.4.2 Inter-Exchange Traffic Matrices 36

1.2.4.2.1 Analysis of Initial Data 37

1.2.4.2.2 Setting-up of the Initial Point-to-point Traffic Matrix 37

1.2.4.2.3 Elementary Traffic Variables 38

1.2.4.4 International Traffic Forecast 39

1.2.4.5 Considerations of Traffic Models 40

1.2.4.5.1 Estimation of Traffic Offered 41

1.2.4.5.2 24-hour Traffic Profiles 42

1.2.4.5.3 Busy Hour 43

1.2.5 Overcoming Lack of Usable Data 43

1.2.6 ISDN Forecasting 43

2. SUBSCRIBER DEMAND, TRAFFIC AND ISDN

FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

45

2.1 EXISTING SITUATION 45

2.2 METHODOLOGY of SUBSCRIBER DEMAND

FORECASTING

54

2.2.1 Examination of Historical Data 54

2.2.2 Identification of Saturation Level 55

2.2.3 Residential Subscriber Forecasting 56

2.2.3.1 Population Estimation per Terminal Exchange Area 56

2.2.3.2 Estimation of the Number of Households 58

2.2.3.3 Estimation of Residential Subscribers 60

2.2.4 Business Subscriber Forecasting 61

2.2.4.1 Estimation of Business Subscriber Growth Rate 61

2.2.4.2 Estimation of Business Subscribers 61

2.2.5 Total Subscriber Forecasting 63

2.3. METHODOLOGY of TRAFFIC FORECASTING 72

2.3.1 List of Existing Local Exchanges 72

2.3.2 Historical Traffic Data 72

2.3.3 Technique of Traffic Forecasting 73

2.3.3.1 Originating/terminating Traffic per Subscriber 74

2.3.3.2 Forecasting of Subscriber Traffic per Terminal Exchange 82

2.3.3.3 Estimation of Traffic Distribution 91

2.3.3.4 Forecasting of Internal and Local Traffic 93

2.3.3.5 Forecasting of Long-distance Traffic 94

2.3.3.6 Forecasting of International Traffic 103

2.3.3.6.1 Growth of International Traffic 103

2.3.3.6.2 Technique of International Traffic Forecasting 103

2.3.3.6.3 International Traffic with Specific Countries 104

2.3.4 Circuit Forecasting 105

2.4 METHODOLOGY of ISDN FORECASTING 106

2.4.1 Key factors 106

2.4.2 ISDN Demand Forecast 110

2.4.3 ISDN Traffic forecast 113

2.4.4 ISDN Switching Plan 113

2.5 THE INFLUENCE of REFUGEES 114

3. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS 117

3.1 RESULTS from SUBSCRIBER FORECASTING 118

3.2 RESULTS from TRAFFIC FORECASTING 121

3.3 RESULTS from ISDN DEMAND FORECASTING 122

3.4 CONCLUTIONS on the INFLUENCE of REFUGEES 123

3.4.1 The Influence of Refugees on Subscriber Demand 123

3.4.1.1 The “all stay” case 124

3.4.1.2 The “all leave” case 124

3.4.1.3 The “Exponential” case 125

3.4.1.4 Comparison of “all stay”, “all leave” and “exponential” cases 127

3.4.1.5 Combined “all stay” and “Pareto” case 128

3.4.2 The Influence of Refugees on Traffic Demand 135

3.4.3 The Influence of Refugees on ISDN and New Services 135

3.4.4 The Influence of Refugees on Exchange Performance 136

3.5 CONCLUSIONS 138

THE ADAPTATION OF ITU-T FORECASTING RULES TO THE COUNTRIES UNDER SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES

9

1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 PREFACE

A well prepared forecasting, i.e. a prediction for the future, is a necessary condition

for a successful and economic operation of a telephone network. The objective of

forecasting is to provide a basis for planning, which in turn will lead the right

programming for the proper activities. The boundary lines between forecasting,

planning and programming are in practice often vague.

The objective of planning is the allocation of resources and the realization of an

adequate telecommunication network. Forecasting is a necessary basis of almost every

decision. The results of forecasting are applied to different projects, the feasibility of

which is analysed in the pre-investment work. In this process it is important to ensure

that investment decisions for the implementation of the telecommunication projects

will be based on an as rigorous as possible economical analysis, to avoid pitfalls of

over-investment or under-investment. Programming is a description of the actions

derived from plans that have been decided.

Interdependence exists between telecommunication facilities and economic

development in every country or society all over the world. Thus, it is necessary to

reach a certain economic level before a demand for telephones arises; on the other

hand, certain basic telecommunication facilities are necessary for further economic

development of a country. All these investments are important for the economical

development of a country.

The development of the telephone service requires the provision of customers’

apparatus, line plant, exchange and transmission equipment to meet anticipated public

demand when and where it arises. The logistics of telecommunications provision are

such that there is always a considerable time-lag between the identification of a need

and the ability to meet that need; for instance the delay between the identification of a

need for a new telephone exchange and the cut over of that exchange. All

optimisations of the network extensions necessary to be carried out are based on

forecasting.

Forecasting always starts in practice with the identification of the subscriber’s

demand. The aim of subscriber forecasting is twofold. First of all, a considerable part

of the planning of a telecommunication network must be based directly on the

predicted subscriber distribution of the near and far future. However, the network

elements cannot be properly planned and dimensioned without the supply of reliable

subscriber forecasts, since these are important primary elements for traffic

forecasting. There are big differences between different subscriber classes, both


10

concerning the development of demand for services and the way of using these

services.

Sometimes the subscriber prediction represents the final forecast product required; in

other cases the subscriber forecast is just a necessary step in the traffic forecasting

process: but in most situations it plays both roles.

All these emphasize the importance of starting up the subscriber forecasting activity

by a careful selection of main strategies, and a choice of forecasting models and

methods that agree with these strategies and with the structure of the forecasting

problem and the available data.

A first subscriber-forecasting scheme may be very simple; with time and increased

experience from follow-up studies, the ideal degree of sophistication may be reached.

To be useful a forecasting must provide a specific level of accuracy over a specified

time period in the future. Both the required level of accuracy and the time period are

functions of the decision at hand. In general, short-term forecasts are more accurate

than long-term forecasts.

According to the ITU-T the method of forecasting telecommunication services for the

network involves several phases. Basic information has to be collected, reviewed,

scrutinized, evaluated and treated in such a way, that forecasting achieves the highest

possible accuracy.

One way of improving the final results, according to the ITU-T, is to try and reconcile

two or more completely separate forecasts, preferably based on different strategies.

1.1.1 Purpose of the Present Forecasting

The purpose of the present study is the adaptation of the ITU-T forecasting rules to

countries under special circumstances (e.g. in an after war situation). These countries

are in a special situation, with partially destroyed telecommunication network and war

refugees influencing the forecasting. From now on we will use the term “Republic”,

when we refer to such a country, and this will stand for a case study that will be

described in the following paragraphs.

We assume that PTT of the “Republic” was established during the war with the task to

co-ordinate the actions of the 9 semiautonomous regional PTT enterprises. During the

war period, PTT was responsible for the basic postal and telecommunication services.

Therefore, its present organization reflects the needs of the war period and is unable to

cope with the requirements of the peace period. As a result, there are no available data

in a systematic way, concerning the existing resources in the country, the financial

activities, the administrative information, like population and the telecommunications

network.

The total population is estimated (due to lack of statistical data) to about 1.150.000 in

a country with two distinct “faces”; a mountainous less developed in the Eastern-

Southern part and a plain more developed and urbanized Western-Northern part.

Unemployment and settlement of refugees are the most serious problems in the

“Republic”. We make certain assumptions, concerning topographic conditions, land,


11

water and mineral, as well as agriculture, pastoral, industrial, etc. activities. Moreover,

we make an estimate about training system, administrative regions and the economic

situation.

Demand forecasting for developing countries, with insufficient historical data of

development in the field of Telecommunications, is usually expressed by empirical

formulas, based on extrapolation of concrete parameters such as population, Gross

Domestic Product (GDP) and data related to exports and imports, etc.

The study of Demand Forecasting in a country just after a war is a special case

compared to similar studies for other developing countries. The telecommunications

in such a country are usually characterized by lack of historical or present data, fully

or partially destroyed infrastructure and a new population distribution.

In a country after a war, the population distribution (refugees, population in new

territories) varies significantly with the geographical areas as well as with time.

Refugees are considered as the major problem because, in the beginning, they are

mainly concentrated in specific areas (the financially strongest) but later on they

emigrate. As a result, at the end of the war there is a great difficulty in studying the

final inhabitant distribution, because the population has not been definitely settled and

the population distribution may have not been precisely recorded yet.

The data, used in the present study are supposed to come as information provided by

operating state agencies and PTT personnel and are considered as historical data

concerning the pre-war situation of the Former State of “Republic”. These data can be

considered as estimates of the present situation, as well as future estimates for

planning purposes.

The present thesis, carried out in the Faculty of Technical Sciences of the University

of Novi Sad, is an effort on the adaptation of the ITU-T forecasting rules to the

countries in a special, after war circumstances. These circumstances are characterized

by partially destroyed telecommunication network and the war refugees influence the

forecasting. Since they have some impact on demographic factors, it is necessary to

estimate how many of them will stay or leave the area we study. This forecasting may

be estimated in two ways. One way to examine the influence of refugees is the upper

and lower limit solution, i.e. the assumption that all war refugees stay in the

considered area or all of them leave and, thereafter, seek for the weighted average. A

second way is to assume some distribution, for example a negative exponential

distribution, as a function of the number of leaving refugees and the elapsed time. The

results of these two methods will be compared and the best will be adopted.

1.1.2 Plans

The existence of plans for a smooth development of telecommunication services is a

"sine qua non" for a financially, socially, politically and technically justified progress

of the telecommunication sector.

A prerequisite to any planning function is the understanding of what the Network

Operator expects to achieve under the existing conditions. These conditions are the


12

National economic factors, political factors and technical plans. Beyond the above-

mentioned political objectives, the planning must cover the Administration's policy

objectives and time frame (as described by ITU-T (10a) and (12a)) for:

- Policy Objectives

The Administration's objectives must be clearly chosen by defining the maximum

internal profitability and the need for expanded services. If the only objective is the

extension of service to as many subscribers as possible, the grade of service in the

network will deteriorate through congestion. This can affect the subscribers’ demand

for service negatively and consequently the Administration's revenues.

- Strategic Plans (Long Term)

Strategic plans provide conceptual and technological direction in the time period

covered as well as details and have a major impact on the evolution of the network in

the long term (up to 20 years).

- Fundamental Plans (Medium Term)

These plans provide direction for the expansion, modernization and development of

the network (up to 10 years) and usually they deal with smaller parts of the network

(e.g. exchange, transmission system, etc.).

- Implementation Plans (Short Term)

These provide site-specific direction to engineering/provisioning groups for a short

period (up to 3 years). Their primary purpose is the realization of specific changes in

the network by providing details on budget allocation, co-ordination and provisioning.

It is evident that the above plans are closely related to each other, since each of them

builds on the previous level. The long-term plans provide the overall objectives and

direction and thus are an important input to the medium and short term planning.

1.1.2.1 Technical Plans

As described by ITU-T (12b), telecommunication networks are highly dependent on

technology and therefore network planning must be based on technical plans, such as:

-Numbering Plans

They create a system of unique telephone numbers associated with individual

subscribers, facilitating billing, permitting automatic routing and offering convenience

to the subscriber.

-Switching Plans

They specify the capabilities required in each exchange in the network: traffic

capacities, routing, signalling, 2 or 4 wire analogue operation, digital operation,

charging, building, air conditioning and power supply.


13

-Transmission Plans

They allocate channels for speech and data. They also set the quality standards for

transmission by defining tolerable parameter values for attenuation, frequency and

phase distortion and noise.

-Routing Plans

They establish the principles to be implemented at each exchange to ensure an

economically justified use of the routes, while simultaneously they fulfil the quality of

service objectives.

-Signalling Plans

They describe in detail the signalling systems in use in the National network (these

systems are not standardized) and they assign an ITU-T (or national) signalling

system to each trunk group in the international network. They also describe the

analogue to digital signalling conversion for the national signalling.

-Access Network Plans

Beyond the basic telecommunication needs and to cover the needs of rural areas, they

describe the network’s structure and requirements to enable modern services (ISDN,

data, etc.).

-ISDN and value-added Services

They define the technical specifications of the ISDN network and the value-added

services that are going to be offered to the subscribers.

-Synchronization Plans

They define the hierarchical structure of a digital network and set the standards of

frequency accuracy and stability, which determine the maximum tolerable slip rate in

the network.

-Network Management Plans

They define the objectives for availability and survivability and the means to achieve

them. They also present systematic methods for maintenance organization.

-Mobile Services Plans

They define the objectives for the application of mobile services like GSM, Paging,

Trunking, Civil aviation, etc. and they also define the requirements from the fixed

backbone network.


14

-Telex and Data Services

They define the offered data and telex services and their technical characteristics and

implementation procedures.

-Charging Plans

They describe the Administration's policy on how subscribers are billed for

telecommunication services, by taking into account distance, volume, duration, tariff

rates and social and financial factors.

1.1.2.2 Financial Plans

The economic aspects of network planning are examined in detail by ITU in ch VIII

of “General Network Planning” (10b).

A telecommunication network represents an enormous investment. For this reason,

financial planning plays a vital role in the development of telecommunications. The

most important factor, to start with, is an investment plan describing where, when and

what kind of equipment will be installed. The next step is to ascertain the amount of

money available for expenditure.

Once the available amount and its source have been defined, financial studies should

be carried out on the possible alternatives of capital allocation in order to find the

most attractive one. In these studies, information on engineering, purchasing,

installing, land acquisition, building, labor cost, maintenance, spare parts, test

equipment and support system are necessary.

Finally the availability of money should be examined in relation to the

implementation of the technical plans and especially of the charging and tariff plan.

1.2 DESCRIPTION of FORECASTING METHODS

The exploitation and the management of a telephone network must be future oriented.

This is the reason for which it is fundamental to make decisions based on forecasts

established on information, analysis and evaluations. To make valuable forecasts it is

necessary to have precise and complete information and to analyse the past and

present conditions.

The forecasts permit the creation of a plan of investments for the economic operation

of the installations, for the satisfaction of the demand and for the distribution (where

the investments are more urgent) of investments in order to achieve a reduced total

investment justified by the administration's finance. It should be noticed that, even

land purchase, buildings, power plant, air conditioning, etc. must be sized on the basis

of traffic information.


15

Calling rates have been accelerated for many years, and most probably they will

continue to increase. They may even be stimulated by new service offerings or may

change with new types of traffic, such as data services, etc. Trends of this kind should

also be taken into account when a forecast is done.

The cost of creating the forecasts is very small compared to the amounts invested in

the network. Thus it is technically and economically important that the forecasts are

made in the best possible way.

For the planning of subscribers, we must make forecasts on the number and the place

of all potential subscribers in a given area. For the planning of the circuit's network,

we must make forecasts on the traffic intensity considering the tariffication according

to the source and the destination of the calls.

All the important operations must be described in the global project of network's

development. Thus it is necessary to have forecasts and plans for long-term in a

chosen scenario. On the other hand, in order to realize punctual operations, it is

necessary to have forecasts and plans for short and medium terms.

It is always necessary to check how valid and reliable the forecast is. It is also

necessary to revise the short, medium and long-term forecasts so that the decisions

will always be coherent with the latest conditions in the network.

All known forecasting methods assume, for their validity, continuation of past

conditions. Thus they are unable to forecast the result of sudden events, which cause

discontinuities in the traffic growth curve such as tariff changes or additional

facilities, structural changes in the number of subscribers, changes in the mode of

operation, such as conversion from manual to automatic service, etc.

1.2.1 Basic Concepts of Forecasting

1.2.1.1 Network’s Development versus Time

As can be seen from the "growth" (or S-curve) in the following fig. 1.1 (10c and 12c),

the network is not developing linearly with the time, but it passes three successive

phases. Each phase corresponds to different social and economic conditions.

1.2.1.1.1 Starting Phase

This is a slow-increase starting phase (10d and 12d), in which the demand mainly

results from business or state sectors. In this phase an elementary network is created,

which is fundamental for the financial development. The development of the number

of connections may be restricted by the lack of funds for the vast investment required

for the equipment of a telephone network. With only limited financial resources,

developing countries give priority to the more fundamental sectors, the ones that are

considered to be of greatest strategic importance such as heavy industry, energy,

transport, etc.


16

The demand for residential use is limited in this phase and the feeble distribution of

telephones reduces its use only between the owners. Telephone is a luxurious item for

the consumers, which have other basic priorities. Of course, in this phase the

Administration's revenue is insufficient. The growth curve shows here an exponential

trend (see par. 1.2.2.1).

Fig 1.1

Network development


17

1.2.1.1.2 Rapid Growth Phase

This is a phase of rapid growth (10e and 12e) due to a better economic development,

in which the importance of the telephone network increases. The business sector

demands a better quality of service and an indispensable infrastructure for its

development. In the residential sector, telephone becomes current equipment and the

increase in its distribution causes increase in its use too. Often in this phase there is

lack of telephone connections, because the demand is higher than the offer. For this

reason is important to make reliable forecasts so that will be no long delays for

connections, and thus the potential subscribers will not be discouraged. In this phase

the network takes its final form and erroneous forecasts may lead into expensive

errors in planning. The growth curve shows here a linear trend.

1.2.1.1.3 Saturation phase

This is a slow increase saturation phase (10f and 12f), which occurs when the

percentage of residential telephones becomes 80 - 90% (whereas in the less telephone

developed countries this proportion may be only 10 - 30%). This means that the

demand is balanced with the offer. The composition of the demand for connections

undergoes a change. It is no longer made up mainly of new residential requests but

becomes more diversified:

- transfers become a significant part,

- the residential demand becomes a demand for extra equipment such as for

weekend homes, second and third lines, new services etc.

- the professional demand may be renewed by the development of service

industries whose occupation is information processing and which requires a

higher rate of telephone equipment per employee than do manufacturing

industries.

The growth curve shows here a logistic or Gompertz' trend (see par. 1.2.2.1). The

saturation level depends on the existence of competitive networks, like mobile ones

and usually ranges on a penetration of 60-70%.

1.2.1.2. Economic Factors Influencing Telephone Density

There are many economic factors influencing the demand for telephone services of

which two are the most important. Such factors are the Gross Domestic Product (10g),

expressing the general economic level of activity, and the level of telecommunication

prices compared with the general level of prices ("real price level").

By making an assumption for the economic development of the country, it becomes

possible to have a long term forecast for the telephone density. The obvious

relationship between telephone penetration and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

may be used as such an assumption. This method permits also comparisons between

various countries (see fig. 1.2 and 1.3). There are, however, significant deviations

from the fitted curve, which are mainly due to tariff variations (see par. 1.2.2.3.1 –

elasticity factors).


18

Fig. 1.2

Telephone penetration in relation with GDP

After studies conducted in a large number of countries under ITU, there has been

evidence that there is an accepted relation between the GDP per capita and the

telephone density. The results are depicted in figure 1.3.


19

Fig. 1.3

Evolution of telephone penetration in relation with GDP

This nomograph shows that the Telephone Density is related to the GDP according to

the formula:

Log Dt2 / Dt1 = a + blog(I2 / I1)

Where Dt1, Dt2 are the telephone densities in years t1 and t2, I1, I2 are the relative

GDP per capita, a is a constant and b is the density growth rate as a function of GDP.

The above formula also encounters the cost of basic telephony relative to the cost of

other services but in periods of economic crisis it does not provide precise results for

long term forecasting, without previous corrections and adjustments, which some-

times are difficult to be made.

In order to apply the above formula to studies of population, City Development

Planning and GDP must be taken into account. The drawback of this method is that


20

becomes very difficult due to floating exchange rates and in some cases their abrupt

changes.

In figure 1.4 the relation between the GDP per capita and the volume of traffic for the

European Community (E.C.) countries is depicted. In the following diagram the

interrelation of the two parameters is also shown. The precedence of the GDP increase

over the traffic volume becomes evident in this figure.

Fig. 1.4

Relation of GDP per capita and the volume of traffic for E.C. countries

1.2.1.3 Separation of Demand in Business and Residential

The demand of telephone services is caused by two sources: from individuals having

personal needs and from enterprises or state sector having economic or administrative

needs (10h).

In the initial phase, the residential users may need the telephone mainly for receiving

calls or for emergency. In general the residential demand appears during the phase of

fast increase. The growth of the demand of telephones per house or per family follows

a logistic law.

The business users demand to make calls in the consistent busy hours. The business

demand is caused by two factors: the increase of lines for each enterprise due to its

activity development and the increase of the number of enterprises due to economic

development.


21

The empirical evidence supports the separation of the two categories for forecasting

purposes. However, it is important to consider the relation between the subscriber's

category and its traffic intensity.

A further separation of these categories into more detailed subcategories will certainly

lead to more accurate forecasts but, in practice, it is difficult to obtain such data.

1.2.1.4 Localization of Demand

In order to make forecasts, we need socio-economic data (population, number of

residences, etc.) and telephone data (number of telephones per subscriber category,

number of lines, etc.) for small geographical areas (10i). These two categories of data

impose two different distributions of demand. The distribution of demand, according

to socio-economic data, as well as the distribution of demand, according to telephone

data they never coincide. For example, in an exchange area the administrative

distribution corresponds to communities and the telephone distribution to the zones of

network distribution. Thus, it is necessary to superimpose those two distributions and

to go into a finer level of distribution.

There are two methods available for demand forecasting (10j). In the first method, we

make extremely detailed local forecasts and then we combine them to obtain a global

forecast. This is the ascending or detailed or bottom-up method. In the second

method, we fix the objectives on national or regional level by setting a territorial

volume or telephone density to be achieved at the n-th year. Then we cut these

objectives in pieces for each detailed geographical zone. This is the descending or

overall or top-down method. A comparison between and an adjustment

(reconciliation) of the two methods give good results and is recommended by ITU-T.

1.2.2 Forecasting Techniques

The dimensioning and the development of a network are realized on the basis of

forecasting the subscriber's and traffic demand. For economical reasons, the

conversation times may also be foreseen.

In the following paragraphs some mathematical models and examples of techniques

for traffic and subscriber demand forecasting are given. The adoption of the

mathematical model, which fits best to the development situation of the country, is

practically a subject of the forecaster's experience.

The quantitative forecasting models, according to ITU-T (12g) are divided in two

categories: time series and econometric models.

Time series models describe the evolution of a variable over the time (12h). Time

series data may be on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly or annual basis. In a time

series model the past behaviour of data is examined and used to infer something about

its future behaviour.


22

An econometric model is a quantitive relation between a dependent variable and a

number of independent variables (10k). Econometric models refer to causal

relationships, which can be described by a set of mathematical equations, relating one

variable to a number of other socio-economic variables. Provided data are available,

the measurement of this causal relationship is possible. In the case of

telecommunication demand, the most common used such variables are for instance:

gross national product, charge index for calls, etc.

For short-term forecast, a time series model may be more suitable. This is the case of

countries in which there is a substantial penetration rate and the eventual trend is

stable. However, for countries with low penetration, the use of an econometric model

is likely to be more suitable.

For long-term forecasts, econometric models are more reliable, usually including a

saturation part.

An orderly approach to subscribers and traffic forecasting will minimize the effort and

ensure that the final result represents the best possible judgment (2a). The following

steps are inherent in the forecasting process:

- Analysis of historical data,

- Analysis of future trends based on the historical trends,

- Selection of the planning base,

- Determination of future traffic rates, volumes and distribution,

- Calculation of equipment and trunk quantities,

- Other considerations, such as network requirements.

1.2.2.1 Mathematical Models

The above-mentioned mathematical models represent the most often used models and

have, since many years, been applied by various Administrations. In the following a

list of models (18a) for the growth function is given.

1. Linear trend:

y = a + bt

1. Parabolic

y = a + bt + ct2

3. Exponential trend:

y = aebt

4. Logistic function:

Ysat

y =

1 + aebt


23

5. Logistic function with a basic value:

Ysat - y(b)

y = y(b) +

1 + e-c(x-xo)

6. Exponential logistic function:

Ysat

y =

{1 + e-c(x-xo)

}1/m

7. Extended logistic function:

Ysat

y =

{1 + e -[arsinh(rx)]/r

}1/m

8. Gompertz's function:

y = Ysat (a)

bt

9. Density or Accumulated distribution function:

100

y =

1 + eax

b

10. Exponential Density or Accumulated distribution function:

100

y =

{1 + eax

b}

c

where:

y = subscriber or traffic demand,

Ysat = a parameter describing the saturation level,

a, b, c = parameters

In the following paragraphs some examples of forecasting techniques for subscriber

demand are given. These techniques equally apply for traffic forecasting. It should be

noticed that these are not the only existing mathematical models. Simply, they are the

less complex. The essential task is to adopt the mathematical model that fits better to

the development situation of the country.


24

1.2.2.2 Time Series Models

These models are based on the assumption that there is a complete or at least very

close relation between the present and the future. In other words, this strategy assumes

that the present conditions or actions determine to a great degree the future outcome.

Therefore, it is worthy to analyse the present very carefully in order to calculate the

future conditions.

The time series analysis method requires historical data for a period of the same size

as the period to be forecasted. If such data are not available time series analysis

cannot be applied. The actual model can be developed from, or tested against, past

data.

1.2.2.2.1 Analysis of Historical Data

The existing traffic records reveal past trends for an existing network, exchange or

trunk group (2b). Although the future will be affected by other factors and past trends

may change, these records are a major source of information. While examining these

data, an effort should be made to establish the approximate type of trend that exists.

For example, is the growth a straight line (as in the case of the same volume increase

per year) or is exponential (as in the case of a constant percentage increase per year)

or is fluctuating between the above trends due to discontinuities, economic conditions

or other factors? Even if more sophisticated mathematical methods are going to be

used a preliminary examination of the data is advisable, because usually situations

that upset the statistical trend are revealed.

Records of several years or more are desirable. However, these are rarely available

without discontinuities or other defects. If inadequate data from a lesser period exist

they may be used, but only to the justified extend. If historical data lack or are

unusable, a good judgement upon more generalized knowledge of similar exchanges

or situations should be used. It may even be justifiable to omit the evaluation of any

historical data and place added emphasis on future trends to establish the best possible

forecasting.

Table 1.1 presents busy season, busy hour traffic for a hypothetical exchange, which

may be used as an example to demonstrate data analysis in time series techniques.


25

Table 1.1

Example of time series

ORIGINATING TRAFFIC TOLL TRAFFIC

Year Erl Annual

Increase

Percent

Traffic

Erl Annual

Increase

Percent

Traffic

1 1.60 - - 0.150 - -

2 1.65 0.05 0.031 0.179 0.029 0.193

3 1.70 0.05 0.030 0.195 0.016 0.089

4 1.75 0.05 0.029 0.212 0.017 0.087

5 1.86 0.11 0.063 0.231 0.019 0.090

6 1.90 0.04 0.022 0.252 0.021 0.091

7 1.97 0.07 0.37 0.275 0.023 0.091

8 2.03 0.06 0.032 0.299 0.024 0.087

9 2.08 0.05 0.025 0.326 0.026 0.090

10 2.14 0.06 0.029 0.356 0.030 0.092

The following may be concluded from an examination of the data of table 1.1:

1. The annual increase in originating traffic fluctuates - the highest increase 0.11 is

followed by the lowest increase 0.04, and these have an average 0.075. This

type of fluctuation may result from economic conditions.

2. The annual increase for originating traffic averages 0.054 and the individual

years are generally close to this average. Therefore, a straight-line relationship

is suggested.

3. Comparing the last three increases (average 0.057) with the first three (average

0.050) reveals a slightly higher rate of growth that deviates from the straight-

line concept.

4. The percentage growth of originating traffic fluctuates considerably, but appears

to have a declining trend. This confirms that the exponential growth is, at best,

small.

5. The annual increase for toll traffic is not constant. The fact that it tends to be

larger each year suggests an exponential growth pattern.

6. The percent growth column for toll traffic indicates fluctuations, but tends to

confirm the exponential nature of the growth. The average is 0.089. The second,

third and fourth year figures have an average 0.089 and the last three also 0.089.

This suggests a relatively consistent exponential growth rate of about 8.9% per

year.


26

1.2.2.2.2 Analysis of Future Trends

Although the future is likely to resemble the past in many respects, there may be

predictable deviations that will require adjustment of the established trends (2c). The

equations derived from the preceding trend analysis are generally the starting point in

forecasting. If no deviations can be foreseen, or if a deviation can be foreseen but its

effect is in doubt, the forecast may be made using the past trend without adjustment.

However, this decision should be noticed so that the forecast may be revised when

experience or further study provides a better basis for adjustment.

New services or features lead to alter calling habits causing traffic characteristics and

growth rates to change. Frequently, the rate of growth is diminished (tapered) because

of the personal opinion that past rates of growth cannot be sustained indefinitely.

While it may be true that a saturation point will be reached, there is little such

indication in countries after war. Thus, no tapered forecast should also be made to

give to the plan the necessary flexibility.

The traffic trend formula must be adjusted when the rate of growth is expected to

change. Traffic volume must be adjusted if a discontinuity is expected with the

introduction of a new service. In some cases, the calling rate may need to be adjusted

rather than the traffic volumes.

1.2.2.3 Econometric Models

Econometric models refer to a set of mathematical equations, which relate one variable

to a number of other socio-economic variables (12i). Econometric models also provide

numerical measurement of the causal relationship between these variables.

Econometric models are used for forecasting future quantities and for deriving

elasticities to be used in the rate change evaluation.

The concept of elasticity plays an important role in economic demand analysis.

Elasticity (12j) is the quotient of the percentage change of the number of subscribers Y

and the percentage of income per capita X, which has caused the change of Y and

which must be thought as infinitely small. A practical definition of elasticity is as

follows:

(Y1 – Y0)/Y0

EX =

(X1 – X0)/X0

where Y0 and X0 denote the number of subscribers and income before the income

change, while Y1 and X1 denote the corresponding quantities after the income change.

Independent variables, which are used to explain the demand for a commodity, can be

identified from the economic theory. In the case of telecommunications demand, the

commonly used independent variables are the following:

1) The price index, or the charge index for a minute call, which measures price

elasticity,


27

2) Economic conditions such as the gross national (domestic) product,

employment, population, or trade, which measures income elasticity,

3) The wholesale index, consumer price index or GNP deflator, which yields the

real price index (the level of telecommunication prices, compared to the general

level of prices),

4) The telephone stations or the non-completion rates,

5) The percentage of direct dial traffic, which takes into account the effect of

automation.

In a broad sense, the economic and cultural level of a nation governs both the supply

of and the demand for telephones. The demand depends, of course, also on national

preferences and habits and last but not least, on the telephone tariffs. To avoid the

influence of the latter, all investigations and forecasts should be made on the

assumption that the telephone tariffs are not prohibitive, but are low enough to make a

sound expansion of the telephone network possible.

For inter-country comparisons, it is necessary to have some mechanism for comparing

GDP expressed in various national currencies. The simpler way is to convert all

currencies to a common one, using exchange rates.

Table 1.2 based on ITU data (15), depicts the Telephone Density (main telephone lines

per 100 inhabitants) for 206 countries in year 1995 correlating it to the GDP per capita

in US Dollars ($).

Table 1.2

Correlation of Telephone Density to GDP per capita in Year 1995

No NAME GDP/capita

in US$ Main

tel.Ln/

100Inh

No NAME GDP/capita

in US$ Main

tel.ln/

100Inh 1 Afghanistan - 0.14 2 Albania 680 1.74

3 Algeria 1,472 4.38 4 Andorra - 42.25

5 Angola 913 0.47 6 Antigua & Barbuda 7,122 42.34

7 Argentina 8,042 17.38 8 Armenia 342 15.40

9 Aruba 11,533 38.17 10 Australia 19,210 51.88

11 Austria 29,001 46.89 12 Azerbaijan 321 8.54

13 Bahamas 12,399 31.50 14 Bahrain 8,695 24.11

15 Bangladesh 243 0.26 16 Barbados 7,177 36.99

17 Belgium 26,570 46.52 18 Belarus 1,004 20.77

19 Belize 2,719 13.33 20 Benin 367 0.59

21 Bermuda 26,729 75.82 22 Bhutan 528 1.01

23 Bolivia 939 4.32 24 Botswana 3,099 4.83

25 Bosnia - 8.98 26 Brazil 4,591 9.57

27 Brunei Darussalam 17,556 26.26 28 Bulgaria 1,470 31.26

29 Burkina Faso 170 0.32 30 Burundi 202 0.25

31 Cambodia 286 0.08 32 Cameroon 621 0.52

33 Canada 19,092 60.24 34 Cape Verde 876 6.37

35 Central African Rep. 332 0.29 36 Chad 157 0.09

37 Chile 4,714 15.59 38 China 575 4.46

39 Colombia 2,044 11.76 40 Comoro 466 0.79

41 Congo 758 0.80 42 Cote d’ Ivoire 702 0.88

43 Costa Rica 2,699 15.47 44 Croatia 3,786 30.86

45 Cuba 1,199 3.23 46 Cyprus 11,995 48.46

47 Czech Republic 4,564 27.31 48 Dem. Rep. Of Congo 201 0.08

49 Denmark 32,990 61.79 50 Djibouti 856 1.32


28

No NAME GDP/capita

in US$ Main

tel.Ln/

100Inh

No NAME GDP/capita

in US$ Main

tel.ln/

100Inh 51 D.P.R. Korea - 4.90 52 Dominica 2,914 26.39

53 Dominican Rep. 1,512 8.26 54 Ecuador 1,563 7.33

55 Egypt 1.030 4.99 56 El Salvador 1,774 5.61

57 Equatorial Guinea 409 0.89 58 Eritrea 161 0.51

59 Estonia 2.439 29.85 60 Ethiopia 95 0.25

61 Faroe Islands - 52.68 62 Fiji 2,638 8.78

63 Finland 24,659 54.90 64 France 26,496 56.36

65 French Guiana - 28.87 66 French Polynesia 1,679 22.36

67 Gabon 3,858 3.16 68 Gambia 350 1.87

69 Germany 29,489 53.84 70 Georgia 372 10.49

71 Ghana 362 0.44 72 Greece 10,922 50.87

73 Greenland - 37.73 74 Grenada 2,560 24.34

75 Guadeloupe 5,147 39.62 76 Guam - 45.70

77 Guatemala 1,377 3.13 78 Guernsey - 71.60

79 Guinea 686 0.22 80 Guinea-Bissau 240 0.73

81 Guyana 710 5.99 82 Haiti 384 0.84

83 Honduras 709 3.10 84 Hong Kong 22,784 54.69

85 Hungary 4,271 26.06 86 Iceland 26,069 57.61

87 India 365 1.54 88 Indonesia 1,038 2.13

89 Iran (I.R.) 1,521 9.53 90 Iraq 2,691 3.28

91 Ireland 17,267 39.48 92 Israel 15,316 44.09

93 Italy 18,963 44.01 94 Jamaica 2,025 14.17

95 Japan 41,004 48.92 96 Jersey 26,858 73.39

97 Jordan 1,526 5.99 98 Kazakhstan 1,006 11.60

99 Kenya 332 0.82 100 Kiribati 550 2.60

101 Korea (Rep) 10,174 43.04 102 Kuwait 15,739 23.23

103 Kyrgystan 319 7.48 104 Lao P.D.R. 329 0.56

105 Latvia 1,768 29.81 106 Lebanon 2,821 14.93

107 Lesotho 430 0.90 108 Liberia - 0.16

109 Libya - 6.79 110 Lithuania 1,605 26.78

111 Luxembourg 42,351 59.16 112 Macau 16,917 36.70

113 Madagascar 235 0.26 114 Malawi 151 0.35

115 Malaysia 4,339 18.32 116 Maldives 1,108 6.30

117 Mali 238 0.19 118 Malta 8,709 48.30

119 Marshall Islands - 5.92 120 Martinique - 42.53

121 Mauritania 465 0.43 122 Mauritius 3,487 16.21

123 Mayotte - 6.56 124 Mexico 3,145 9.48

125 Micronesia 1,921 6.54 126 Moldova 392 14.00

127 Mongolia 412 3.93 128 Morocco 1,218 4.60

129 Mozambique 86 0,34 130 Myanmar 2,381 0.39

131 Namibia 2,178 5,43 132 Nepal 193 0.53

133 Neth. Antilles - 36.59 134 Netherlands 25,581 54.33

135 New Caledonia - 24.11 136 New Zealand 16,630 49.92

137 Nicaragua 462 2.63 138 Niger 208 0.16

139 Nigeria 610 0.36 140 Northnern Marianas - 42.81

141 Norway 33,547 55.55 142 Oman 5,604 8.59

143 Pakistan 455 1.77 144 Panama 2,619 12.16

145 Papua New Guinea 1,140 1.07 146 Paraguay 1,820 3.56

147 Peru 2,440 5.99 148 Philippines 1,098 2.49

149 Poland 3,055 16.91 150 Portugal 9,175 37.49

151 Puerto Rico 9,909 33.57 152 Qatar 13,639 23.93

153 Reunion 9,366 34.01 154 Romania 1,573 13.98

155 Russia 2,429 17.54 156 Rwanda 155 0.28

157 S. Kitts and Nevis 5,065 38.16 158 S.Tome & Principe 358 1.97

159 Samoa 916 4.97 160 Saudi Arabia 7,005 10.64

161 Senegal 583 1.11 162 Seychelles 6,748 19.56

163 Sierra Leone 209 0.40 164 Singapore 28,604 51.33

165 Slovak Rep. 3,230 23.19 166 Slovenia 9,431 33.33

167 Solomon Islands 949 1.84 168 Somalia 101 0.15


29

No NAME GDP/capita

in US$ Main

tel.Ln/

100Inh

No NAME GDP/capita

in US$ Main

tel.ln/

100Inh 169 South Africa 3,231 10.05 170 Spain 14,260 39.25

171 Sri Lanka 710 1.39 172 St. Lucia 3,511 23.46

173 St. Vincent 2,157 17.12 174 Sudan 211 0.36

175 Suriname 1,263 13.16 176 Swaziland 1,388 2.19

177 Sweden 25,956 68.21 178 Switzerland 42,945 64.04

179 Syria 1,316 8.20 180 Taiwan-China 12,240 46.62

181 Tajikistan 84 4.17 182 Tanzania 177 0.30

183 TFYR Macedonia 1,419 16.98 184 Thailand 2,820 7.00

185 Togo 293 0.57 186 Tonga 1,764 7.86

187 Trinidad & Tobago 3,959 16.81 188 Tunisia 2,008 6.43

189 Turkey 2,708 22.36 190 Turkmenistan 1,347 7.40

191 Uganda 315 0.24 192 Ukraine 70 18.09

193 United Arab Emirates 17.335 30.78 194 United Kingdom 18,975 52.76

195 United States 27,569 63.99 196 Uruguay 5,564 20.89

197 Uzbekistan 410 6.68 198 Vanuatu 1,406 2.57

199 Venezuela 3,438 11.74 200 Viet Nam 276 1.58

201 Virgin Islands (US) - 56.10 202 West Bank and Gaza - 3.62

203 Yemen 476 1.29 204 Yugoslavia 1,510 19.69

205 Zambia 351 0.94 206 Zimbabwe 694 1.47

1.2.2.3.1 Influencing Factors

Some factors influencing the demand of telecommunications are clearly quantitative,

like many demographic factors, population, number of households, etc., and are thus

relatively easy to use in statistical models. Other factors of great importance, like

general technological development, political environment, culture, etc. are difficult or

impossible to measure.

The forecaster may find ways to quantify these influencing factors, which is especially

important if they are expected to change considerably in the future.

- Technological environment

The technological environment (12m) in general is characterised by fast-growing

research and development and an unprecedented swiftness of technological change.

The technological development is an important component when estimating the

demand.

- Political environment

In many countries, particularly in the less developed parts of the world, there is often a

long-term shortage of investment funds due to the balance-of-payment problems or to

the lack of local sources of “Capital”.

The political and legal environment (12n) can be the predominant factor in

determining the supply of telecommunication services, based on the budgetary

allocations or on the governmental regulations.


30

- Culture

Culture determines (12o) the way in which we do, use and judge things and this varies

from society to society. Based on cultural differences between countries, we must

recognise that basic factors affecting telecommunication demands may be of different

importance from country to country.

- Demographic factors

Population and age (12p) structure of population affect directly the

telecommunication demand. The size and the rate of growth of these factors are

strictly connected to the number of births and deaths.

The number of households represents a part of potential subscribers of telecommu-

nication services.

The housing refers to the number of houses available at a certain time and the

expected growth.

The degree of urbanisation is the percentage of the population living in communities

exceeding a specific number of inhabitants.

The city structure involves surveys on cities with reference to business and

residential quarters, density of dwellings, etc.

The mobility refers to the annual number of removals, to the daily commuter traffic,

to the seasonal mobility, etc.

The number of second homes is an increasingly important factor of additional

demand for telecommunication services, especially after a certain level of financial

progress.

Demographic factors are of crucial importance especially in the case of the

“Republic” (see par. 1.3).

- Number of buyers

The market (12q) consists of all the actual and potential consumers of a product or

service. The size of the market can be measured by studying the overall size of the

population. In many cases it is better to include the number of households as a

variable, rather than size of the population. Moreover, the age and sex distribution of

the population are of importance in any market.

The business sector can for instance be measured by studying the number of

employees and the number of separate business entities.

- Needs and wants

The real needs (12r) of a country or region cannot always be assessed on the basis of

the expressed demand, since this may have no significance. In the more developed


31

countries, with an important telecommunication infrastructure, unsatisfied needs find

their natural expression in the form of subscriber waiting lists and the difficulties

encountered in handling the traffic. However, sometimes, fairly large sectors of the

population, which have remained at a rather low stage of development and whose

standard of living is close to the subsistence level, have resigned from living without

telecommunications. No need is expressed, but this does not mean that means of

communication are unnecessary.

- Economic factors

The distribution of income (12s), as well as the average level of income, may be

among the crucial factors, which determine the demand for a given service. A country

with a few rich people and many poor is likely to have quite a different consumption

pattern from that of a country with the same average level of income, which is

distributed fairly evenly.

Looking at the business subscriber sector in general, we know that increasing trade

and tourism demand a well-established telecommunication system. An increase of

foreign trade causes an increase of the demand for telecommunication services within

the different sectors.

The more developed sector of a developing country is often geographically limited to

the Capital and its surroundings, a port, an important agricultural area, or an important

raw material deposit.

- Business and household demand

There are four large and outstanding segments (12t) in some telecommunication

services, particularly in the telephone services:

a) Residential lines,

b) Single business lines,

c) Multi-business lines (e.g. PBX-lines),

d) Public lines (pay phones).

- Marketing factors

It is assumed that the environmental factors, under which an Administration has to

operate, cannot be changed or influenced.

There are other factors, which affect the market, and are under the control of the

Administration. These are called marketing factors. They determine the demand and

the provided service, which result from the environment. They can be used to

overcome environmental factors, to emphasize them or to serve any other objective.

- Elasticity factors

There is a clear interdependence in most countries between the socio-economic

development, as reflected by the GDP measured in fixed prices, and the development

of:


32

- The tariffs (prices),

- The number of subscribers,

- The volume of telecommunication traffic,

- The amount of investments in telecommunication plant.

The interdependence mentioned may be quantified, using regression analysis of

historical data and the results obtained may be used in the forecasting of the

development in various telecommunication sectors. This possibility has a great

advantage. Since in every country, forecast figures concerning the GDP and the

associated variables are normally available. They can then be used for the forecasting

of the development in the various telecommunication sectors.

A theoretical model for the interdependence between macro-economic data of the

above mentioned types (as explanatory factors) and the development in various

telecommunication sectors may be obtained by the generalization of the theory for the

interdependence between the price of a commodity and the quantity demanded.

As a matter of fact the price of and the demand for an article offered, under market

conditions, are not independent of each other. On the contrary there is a pronounced

interaction: when the unit price increases the demand drops and vice versa. This

statement is modified by the concept of elasticity (12v). Price elasticity expresses the

sensitivity of customers to the cost of the service (see par. 1.2.2.3).

Some articles are very price-sensitive, so that the demand drops heavily even for

moderate price increases. Such articles are said to have a high "price elasticity". Other

articles are less sensitive to price fluctuations - they have a low price elasticity.

1.2.3 Subscriber Demand Forecasting

Using mathematical models, like the ones described in par. 1.2.2.1 the forecast of

subscribers’ demand may be done. The following method is an example of application

of the exponential logistic function.

We assume that the telephone density D(t) at time t is described by the exponential

logistic function:

Dmax

D(t) =

{1 + e-c(t-to)

}1/m

Where:

c , to , m = are unknown coefficients.

While the following relation might calculate the saturation density Dmax:


33

n

Dmax =

ρ k

Where:

n = number of telephones in saturation per 100 households

ρ = percentage of telephones in households in saturation situation

k = persons per household by the end of the year.

1.2.4 Traffic Forecasting

During the development phase of a telecommunication network, the delay from the

arising need for subscriber lines and relevant equipment to the fulfilment of these

needs may be significantly large. This means that in order to expand the network,

these needs must be foreseen correctly and in detail, so that the necessary equipment

will be available before the total coverage of the existing capacity.

Another obvious need for reliable forecasting results from the additional cost for the

Network Operators when there is no correct prediction. If the needs are overestimated,

then capital is spent for the acquisition of expensive equipment, which is not going to

bring new revenues. On the other hand, if the needs are underestimated, then valuable

income will be lost and the network users will complain.

The subscriber’s traffic originates from the Terminal (Local) exchanges and there via

the various Tandem exchanges, is transferred to the Transit ones. Terminal exchanges

are expected to be installed in each Terminal area. In these exchanges the traffic that

is destined to other Terminal areas is routed to its own Tandem exchange according to

the routing plan. The traffic forecasting is carried-out considering the switching and

routing plans, through all hierarchical levels.

As it is known the originating traffic per subscriber is used for the calculation of the

long distance traffic (see par. 1.2.4.3). The distribution of this traffic is not easily

estimated using statistical methods or mathematical formulas. Thus the forecasting

calculations are based on the experience from similar cases in other countries with

similar structure, on traffic measurements or on description of the subscriber’s

behavior, etc.

A parameter that should be carefully taken into account is the development procedure

in the region. The construction of industries, roads, airports, harbors and the

transportation of people have as result the modification of the traffic volume and its

distribution in different destinations. Therefore, the traffic forecasting must be

regularly revised and adapted to the characteristic conditions of each region.

As the network grows, two factors affect the traffic in opposing ways (10l). The first

is the ”stimulus phenomenon”, i.e. the growth tendency of trunk traffic per subscriber,

since the factor of community interest increases because a larger network is available.

The second is the reduction tendency of the average traffic per subscriber due to the

“dilution factor”. This dilution occurs with large expansions because subscribers with


34

lower calling rates are added to the network. Initially, the increase is expected to be

larger than the decrease, followed by a period of stability. At a late stage the dilution

effect may be observed.

The most difficult part of a forecasting study is the preliminary preparation of the data

system. The difficulty rises from the strong interaction between all the data, so that a

small change somewhere may have important consequences elsewhere. Moreover, the

data taken in consideration may change during the study. The choice of the methods

to be used depends on the availability and the reliability of the input data required by

these methods. There is a mutual interaction between the data to be collected and the

methods to be used, so it is advisable to combine the two possible ways to deal with

this problem:

- To collect all possible data, and then to select methods and calculation

procedures. According to the availability and the reliability of these data, it may

be that interesting methods may not be used if the required data are not available

or not reliable enough.

- To select the proper methods, and then to collect the required input data and, if

necessary, to estimate missing input data by a personal judgment.

The traffic forecasting method considers the following elements:

- Measurements period (according to ITU-T Rec. E.500, 18b) long enough to

give a meaningful sample.

- A sufficient number of measurements.

- Traffic values for each type of traffic (local, urban, interurban, international,

manual international, special services).

- The average subscriber traffic (originating and terminating).

It is obvious that these data are issued in each exchange, and therefore raises the need

for appropriate collection and maintenance of the data.

One of the short-term traffic forecasts is that for the traffic from one exchange

towards the others. It is recommended to create a matrix of outgoing traffic for each

exchange. The evaluation of such a matrix, of which the purpose is the dimensioning

of the trunk groups, passes from the following phases:

a) Creation of a point-to-point matrix for the offered traffic.

b) Extrapolation of the initial matrix to the target horizon.

c) Consideration of the routings (constraints from network structure).

d) Determination of needs in trunks.


35

For the extrapolation of traffic it is useful to apply a development model based on

statistical data of at least five years. The simplest model being the time series

described in paragraph 1.2.2.2.

1.2.4.1 Theoretical Analysis of Traffic Forecasting

1.2.4.1.1 Exchange Traffic Forecasting

The forecasting of incoming and outgoing traffic for all the terminal exchanges is

necessary for the dimensioning of the local trunk groups linking these terminal

exchanges and the related group exchange, for all the future years under study.

Then it is necessary to forecast the evolution of five different categories of traffic for

every parent exchange and every future year (10m). These categories, which are

necessary in order to forecast the point-to-point traffic matrix, are the following:

- Local traffic (in the same group area),

- Outgoing national traffic, for all other group areas,

- Outgoing international traffic,

- Incoming national traffic, from all other group areas,

- Incoming international traffic.

The method used in this section is based on the extrapolation of calling rates for

residential and business subscribers. The exchange traffic will be obtained by

multiplying the forecasts of these two categories of subscribers by their corresponding

calling rates. A direct extrapolation of the average calling rate for all the subscribers is

possible only when the percentage of the categories of the subscribers is constant in

time.

1.2.4.1.2 Analysis of Initial Data

The basic traffic data, which are necessary for a study of a telecommunication

network, are:

- Future demand of subscriber lines for the study years,

- The calling rates (originating and terminating average traffic per subscriber), for

each of the existing terminal exchanges for the base study year,

- Traffic data according to subscriber’s categories,

- Traffic dispersion.

1.2.4.1.3 Evolution of Calling Rates

The future originating and terminating calling rates are carried out with a logarithmic

trend for both categories of subscribers, residential and business and for each terminal

exchange. It is assumed that the originating and terminating traffic per subscriber is

the same for similar service areas and for the same study year.


36

The used formula is:

T = LOG(A * Y + B)

where: Y = the year,

T = the calling rate,

A and B, two parameters to be determined with two points called Y1 at the year T1,

and Y2 at the year T2:

A = [EXP(Y2) - EXP(Y1)]/(T2-T1)

B = [EXP(Y1) * T2 - EXP(Y2) * T1]/(T2-T1)

Some complementary input data are assumed (see the following paragraph 1.2.4.3):

- each terminal exchange is assigned to a class of traffic according to the

characteristics of the related subscribers,

- for each class of traffic, a target value is given for each type of elementary

calling rate (only for the two categories of subscribers).

1.2.4.1.4 Aggregation of Calling Rates on the Parent Exchanges

The originating and terminating traffic of all terminal exchanges is carried out

separately for residential and business subscribers by multiplying the related calling

rates with the corresponding number of subscribers. The traffic of all these exchanges

is aggregated on their group exchange.

1.2.4.2 Inter-Exchange Traffic Matrices

In order to provide the planning process with input data for determining the future

routing rules between these exchanges and the dimensioning of the required circuit

groups it is necessary to forecast the flows of traffic between all the group exchanges.

The inter-exchange network (12w) is made of the different urban networks and of the

trunk network linking these urban networks together. We distinguish two types of

exchanges:

- The terminal/tandem exchanges and the international gateway exchange; they

are both sources and sinks for the traffic because they create originating traffic

that is sent to other exchanges, and they absorb terminating traffic, received

from other exchanges. Some times, they are partly used as transit exchanges. In

normal conditions, no traffic is lost, and consequently, the total incoming traffic

must be equal to the total outgoing one.

- The transit exchanges do not create traffic, they have only outgoing and

incoming traffic.


37

It is impossible to forecast directly the offered traffic in the existing circuit groups,

except for a very short term and only with steady network configuration (same routing

rules, same circuit groups). As a matter of fact, this traffic offered to circuit groups is

made up from elementary point-to-point flows of traffic between group exchanges.

These point-to-point traffic flows must be studied separately, because they may have

very different growth rates, they may disappear or some of them may be created

following the evolution of the network. The offered traffic to the existing circuit

groups must be split in elementary point-to-point flows of traffic between group

exchanges, independently of possible routes via transit exchanges. These flows of

traffic will be extrapolated, so that the previous condition, about the balance between

the totals of outgoing and incoming traffic of the group exchanges, is followed. Then

the obtained future point-to-point flows of traffic will be aggregated on the proposed

future circuit groups, according to the evolution of the routing between the group

exchanges. The final result of the forecasting study will be point-to-point traffic

matrices.

The calculation of the future offered traffic to circuit groups is a matter of network

planning, because it depends on the dimensioning of the future network, with an

optimisation of the traffic routing.

1.2.4.2.1 Analysis of Initial data

The initial necessary data (12x) are the following:

- The offered traffic to all the existing circuit groups;

- The traffic routing rules between all the group exchanges;

- The percentage of the distribution of traffic in all the group exchanges;

- The future exchange traffic per traffic category.

1.2.4.2.2 Setting-up of the Initial Point-to-point Traffic Matrix

In order to assess the initial point-to-point traffic matrix (12y) we follow the steps

below:

- The offered traffic in the existing circuit groups during the base-year is carried

out with the Erlang formula applied to the number of circuits and the measured

(or carried) traffic, taking into account the case of limited availability.

- The offered traffic carried on the transit routes is split into elementary flows of

traffic between group exchanges. For this purpose it is necessary to take into

account the routing rules used in the traffic routing matrix; each transit

exchange is studied separately.

- The affinity factors are calculated from the initial point-to-point traffic matrix,

and a serious investigation must be carried out about all values significantly

different from 1. This step is necessary for the reliability of all the future traffic

matrices, which will be estimated from this initial traffic matrix, and the affinity

factors are an efficient tool for checking it.

- The formula giving the affinity factors is:


38

FT(I,J) * OTOT

AFF(I,J) =

OOG(I) = OIC(J)

with FT = element of the current point-to-point flow of traffic,

OTOT = obtained total of all the elements of the current matrix,

OOG(I) = obtained outgoing traffic of the exchange of the row No.I,

OIC(J) = obtained incoming traffic of the column No.J.

- The provisional values of the point-to-point traffic matrix are compared with

the percentages of distribution of outgoing traffic obtained from specific

measurements.

1.2.4.2.3 Elementary Traffic Variables

In addition to the construction of the initial point-to-point traffic matrix, the major

part of the preliminary traffic forecasting is the analysis of the composition of the

traffic at a switching point. A double classification is necessary:

- By subscriber category,

- By destination category.

To do this it is necessary to pass through the intermediate stage of determining the

following total mean subscriber traffic values for each category:

- Residential subscriber,

- Ordinary business subscriber,

- PBX business subscriber.

Each of these values should evolve in time according to a simple relation. Multiplying

by the number of subscribers in each category we get the total traffic, which is

handled by the switching exchange serving the area under consideration.

The total mean traffic per subscriber category should then be divided into six traffic

categories (18c), according to figure 1.5.

Originating Outgoing

traffic traffic

Internal Transit

subscriber side exchange traffic

Network side

traffic

Terminating Incoming

traffic traffic

Figure 1.5

Traffic distribution in an exchange


39

The outgoing traffic and incoming traffic categories shown in figure 1.8 must in turn

be divided into a number of subcategories, which depend on the precision required

from the study, like:

- Traffic inside the terminal area,

- Regional traffic (other terminal areas of the same region),

- National traffic (other regions),

- International traffic,

- Special services,

- Manual services using operators.

1.2.4.4 International Traffic Forecast

ITU-T Recommendation E.506 (18d) deals with international traffic forecasting.

Since, data and needs in this field are often different from those encountered in

domestic traffic forecasting, international traffic forecasting must be considered as a

special case.

In Recommendation E.506 (18d), two different strategies for international traffic

forecasting are described: the direct strategy and the composite strategy. With the

direct strategy, carried traffic or measured usage (expressed in Erlangs) for each

relation is the base data, which is to be converted into offered traffic, in accordance

with Recommendation E.501 (18e), “Estimation of Traffic Offered to International

Circuit Groups” (see par. 1.2.4.5.1). Forecasting methods are thus similar to those

used for traffic loads in domestic networks.

The composite forecasting strategy uses historical international accounting data of

monthly paid minute traffic as base data. Such data are generally available in

international networks, but they are very seldom found in domestic networks. They

are forecasted and converted to dimensioning busy hour Erlang forecasts by the

application of a number of traffic related conversion factors forecast for each service

category. The conversion is carried out with the formula:

A = M dh/60e

where:

A is the estimated mean offered traffic in the busy hour (in Erl),

M is the monthly paid minutes,

d is day to monthly ratio (i.e. the ratio of average weekday paid time to

monthly paid time),

h is the busy hour to day ratio (i.e. the ratio of the busy-hour paid-time to the

average daily paid-time),

e is the efficiency factor (i.e. the ratio of the busy-hour paid-time to busy-

hour occupied time).

To forecast paid minute traffic, models using explanatory variables are often used.

Explanatory variables often include:


40

- Export,

- Import,

- Degree of automation,

- Quality of service,

- Time difference between countries,

- Tariffs,

- Consumer price index,

- Gross national product.

Recommendation E.506 (18d) suggests the use of both the direct and composite

forecasting strategies and their reconciliation to yield more reliable forecast.

Although simple regression analysis of very long-term historical data gives good

results, traffic data from the later years are likely to provide a better trend, being

influenced by events that carry more weight both within the Country and outside,

which are related to the economy, migration, political status, etc. It is thus appropriate

to use more sophisticated tools that take into account, not only historical data, but also

such other factors that influence the growth of the traffic in both directions, for

example multiple regression analysis.

The exponential smoothing method (12ac) is characterized by the use of exponentially

decreasing weights, as the observations get older. The recent observations are given

more weight in forecasting relatively to the older ones. When the time-series follows

approximately linear trends, then the double exponential smoothing models may be

used.

1.2.4.5 Considerations of Traffic Models

The establishment of traffic models is essential in traffic calculations and traffic

forecasting (12ad).

Two types of data should be considered in traffic forecasting/planning. The first is the

measured traffic data and the second is the billing data. This includes not only the

international level but also national levels. Circuit groups in stable networks can

usually be serviced/engineered using measured circuit group data. If the network

under consideration is very unstable (as it is the case of a country exiting from war)

then it would be advisable to use point-to-point data which may be estimated from

measurements per direction code or from billing data. Point-to-point data could be

supplemented by circuit group data. One advantage of point-to-point data is that they

provide point-to-point demand that circuit group data often don’t, especially in

complex networks. It is advantageous to use both strategies (if possible) and compare

the results. If there are significant differences the cause should be found before a

method is accepted. If a composite forecasting strategy is used, an analysis should be

carried out of how the billing data are recorded. If the billing data are recorded by rate

period, the rate period that encompasses the busy hour could be used.

The choice of the forecasting model to be used usually depends on the following

considerations:


41

a) Variables describing the traffic.

b) Length of the forecasting period.

c) Availability of historical data and computer facilities.

d) Aggregation level.

e) Forecasting accuracy.

1.2.4.5.1 Estimation of Traffic Offered

The methods of estimating traffic offered from measurements taken on circuit groups

can be found in ITU-T Recommendation E.501 (18e). The methods are briefly

summarized in the following:

1) Only-route circuit group with no significant congestion:

A = Ac

Where: A = offered load

Ac = carried load

2) Only-route circuit group with significant congestion:

(1-WB)

A = Ac

(1-B)

Where:

B = average loss probability for all call attempts to the considered circuit

group.

W = parameter representing the effect of call repetitions; if measurements of

completion ratios are not available a value in a range of 0.6-0.9 for W

may be used.

3) High-usage/final network arrangements with no significant congestion on the

final group

A = Ah + Af

where:

Ah = the traffic carried on the high-usage group

Af = the traffic overflowing from this high usage group and

carried on the final group

4) High-usage/final network arrangements with significant congestion on the final

group, require further study before a procedure can be recommended.


42

The above model is based on the observed fact that when calls do not succeed,

callers often reattempt. The result of the model is an estimate of traffic offered

that is lower than would be obtained if the simple model:

Ac

A =

(1- B)

was applied (no re-attempts) and incorporates observed values of caller

persistence (W).

It has also been observed that under conditions of very poor service, many

subscribers will not attempt to call at all in the busy hour. In such a situation, if

service improves, new call attempts will appear and the estimate of traffic

offered will turn out to be low. Thus before calculating traffic offered the

forecaster should ask questions about the network or portion of network

concerned, e.g.:

- Is Answer Seizure Ratio (ASR) very low (< 20%)?

- Are operator-handled calls more than half of the total traffic and do

operator delays last more than two hours?

- Is busy hour concentration less than half of the one predicted by the

theoretical profile?

If the answer to all these questions is “no”, the traffic offered calculation can

proceed using observed or conventional values of W (persistence). If one or

more answers are yes, a higher estimate of offered traffic is required. This

estimate is very difficult be to obtained analytically, as it requires knowledge of

the subscriber’s motivations and actions not manifested in the network. One

empirical method, which has been used, with some success in a developing

country, uses the same formula as the one given above but with W:

if B < 0.5, W =0.5

if B > 0.5, W = B

With this method, offered traffic estimates will generally be higher than the

conventional calculation would yield, but if the trunk group Grade of Service

itself is very bad, the two estimates come closer.

1.2.4.5.2 24-hour Traffic Profiles

The average evolution of a traffic load depending on the time of day is called traffic

profile. For national traffic, traffic profiles depend on characteristics of the subscribers

(business/residential) and of the exchange (size of the town etc). For international

traffic, traffic profiles depend on time difference.

Traffic profiles should be based on real traffic measurements. If this is not feasible,

due either to the fact that traffic streams are too small (measurements not very


43

reliable) or measurements do not exist, the standard profiles, found in

Recommendation E.523 (18f), are very useful for International telephone traffic.

1.2.4.5.3 Busy Hour

The busy hour (18b) refers to a continuous one-hour period of time for which the

traffic (expressed in traffic volume or in number of call attempts) is the highest. It

may be defined for a circuit group, a network cluster or a network.

The recommended standard method by ITU-T of calculating the daily average

requires continuously measuring all quarter hours for all days concerned and selecting

the busiest hour in the average profile for all days. This method is called Time-

Consistent Busy Hour (TCBH).

1.2.5. Overcoming Lack of Usable Data

In many developing countries, the data available are extremely limited or may exhibit

large discontinuities or are in a not immediately usable form or missing. ITU-T deals

(12ae) with this problem and describes judgemental or more subjective forecasting

techniques that can be applied to telecommunications demand studies.

1.2.6 ISDN Forecasting

The operation and administration of a telecommunication network should consider the

subscriber demands for new services, which have different characteristics than the

traditional telephone service. ITU-T in its Recommendation E.508 (18g) proposes a

forecasting methodology, which is depicted in Fig 1.6

The basic steps of this approach are:

- Service and parameter definition

In addition to the Recommendation E.508, ITU-CCITT examines all services and

parameters for the introduction of ISDN in a national network (11) with the assistance

of three case studies. In this document the ISDN services and parameters are listed

and, after a market research, the ones to be implemented may be selected.

- Independent forecasting methods

The absence of historical data is the fundamental handicap in forecasting ISDN

services. The methods proposed to be used are either based on the use of historical

data from other countries, expert opinions or socio-economic analysis. Finally a

market research is recommended to test consumer response and behaviour.

- Combining forecasts

Each independent forecasting method is developed based on a particular set of

assumptions and information. The combination of forecasts can be classified in two

major categories. One is the aggregation of different forecasts using weighting


44

methods and the other is an attempt to model the decision process of forecasting

revision in a structured approach.

- Evaluation

The evaluation of the forecasts is an important part of the overall forecasting

procedure and depends on the methodology used.

Figure 1.6

New services forecasting approach


45

2. SUBSCRIBER DEMAND, TRAFFIC AND ISDN

FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

2.1 EXISTING SITUATION

The present study has as a target the preparation of a plan for a single, integrated,

digital telecommunications network within the boundaries of the “Republic”. The

present network is not supposed to be neither integrated nor wholly digital. We

assume that it has the form of nine separate territorial operating companies

(“Regions”), each of which employs a mixture of analogue and digital technology.

The telecommunication sector in the “Republic” has suffered severe damages during

the war. At present, the telecommunications network is of poor condition due to the

war.

The recovery of financial, political and social life imposes to the PTT of “Republic”

to take care of the development of the telecommunications sector. In order that PTT is

able to provide technical solutions for the urgent restoration of services in an efficient

and cost-justified way, the subscriber and traffic demand must be identified, as a first

step towards the telecommunications development and the proper planning. These

will be the basis upon which the immediate needs will be addressed, while providing a

firm foundation for the period (1996-2016) of the forecast.

Historical data, relative to the conditions before the war, are depicted in Table 2.1 and

they can be used, up to a point, for future estimations. The existing situation in the

“Republic” was formed after the end of the war and its descriptions, based on

estimations made by the PTT, are shown also in Table 2.1.

As it was not possible to have typical waiting lists, only a limited number of data were

provided, concerning potential interest expressed by the public for obtaining a main

telephone line. An estimation of the demand was made with a method described

below for year 1996 and is depicted in Table 2.1.

There are certain differences in the waiting lists between the two parts of Table 2.1.

This is due to the following assumptions: a) new territories have been attached to the

“Republic”, b) there has been social restructure of certain regions, with relocation of

refugees or evacuation of the population and c) PTT intends to modernize the network

by replacing manual switchboards with automatic exchanges.

In the trend method, (see par. 1.2.2.2.2) the forecast is based on historical data. This is

the most often used method for countries with normal telephone density (number of

telephone sets per 100 inhabitants). However, it is almost impossible to use this

method if the density is low and it will lead at least to absurdities for long-term

forecasts if the density is high.


46

Table 2.1

Existing National Telephone Network before and after the war

BEFORE THE WAR AFTER THE WAR TERMINAL AREA Installed

lines Lines in-use Existing

Penetra-

tion %

Waiting

list Installed

lines Lines in-use Waiting

list

ZONE I.1

TERMINAL I.1.1-

CAPITAL 50.244 48.193 20.000 50.244 48.193 20.000

TERMINAL I.1.2 1.000 900 1.000 900 TERMINAL I.1.3 500 420 500 420 TERMINAL I.1.4 2.000 1.950 2.000 1.950 TERMINAL I.1.5 960 940 960 940 TERMINAL I.1.6 768 768 768 768 TERMINAL I.1.7 240 240 240 240 TERMINAL I.1.8 384 384 424 384 384 424

TERMINAL I.1.9 180 180 180 180 TERMINAL I.1.10 384 236 192 384 236 192

TERMINAL I.1.11 384 356 192 384 356 192

TERMINAL I.1.12 768 768 768 768 TERMINAL I.1.13 240 240 240 240 TERMINAL I.1.14 192 192 192 192 TERMINAL I.1.15 360 320 360 320 TERMINAL I.1.16 214 214 214 214 TERMINAL I.1.17 256 256 256 256 TERMINAL I.1.18 256 180 256 180

NEW TERM. I.1.19 240





Total 59.330 56.737 41,21 20.808 59330 56.737 22.728

ZONE I.2 TERMINAL I.2.1 1.600 1.580 1.400 1.600 1.580 1.400

TERMINAL I.2.2 240 240 120 240 240 120

NEW TERM. I.2.3 300 180

NEW TERM. I.2.4 1.000

NEW TERM. I.2.5 240

Total 1.840 1.820 13,82 1.520 2.140 1.820 2.940

ZONE I.3 TERMINAL I.3.1 2.000 1.820 1.080 2.000 1.820 1.080

TERMINAL I.3.2 960 960 540 960 960 540

NEW TERM. I.3.3 240 260

NEW TERM. I.3.4 720

Total 2.960 2.780 13,17 1.620 3.200 2780 2.600

ZONE I.4 TERMINAL I.4.1 5.448 5.300 1.600 5.448 5.300 1.600

TERMINAL I.4.2 512 480 140 512 480 140

TERMINAL I.4.3 128 110 128 128 110 128

TERMINAL I.4.4 256 250 128 256 250 128

TERMINAL I.4.5 1.024 1.000 0 1.024 1.000 0

TERMINAL I.4.6 180 160 320 180 160 320

TERMINAL I.4.7 768 768 1.232 768 768 1.232


47

TERMINAL AREA Installed


Penetra-

tion %

Waiting

list Installed


list

TERMINAL I.4.8 384 384 424 384 384 424

TERMINAL I.4.9 384 384 192 384 384 192




Total 9.084 8.836 20,87 4.164 9.084 8.836 5.544

ZONE I.5 TERMINAL I.5.1 3.672 3.390 1.848 3.672 3.390 1.848

TERMINAL I.5.2 214 200 0 214 200 0

TERMINAL I.5.3 214 160 0 214 160 0

TERMINAL I.5.4 214 210 0 214 210 0

TERMINAL I.5.5 420 400 240 420 400 240

TERMINAL I.5.6 672 580 326 672 580 326

TERMINAL I.5.7 214 160 0 214 160 0

TERMINAL I.5.8 900 880 300 900 880 300

TERMINAL I.5.9 360 310 240 360 310 240

TERMINAL I.5.10 300 220 300 300 220 300

TERMINAL I.5.11 214 110 0 214 110 0

TERMINAL I.5.12 60 60 0 60 60 0

TERMINAL I.5.13 214 180 0 214 180 0

TERMINAL I.5.14 214 205 760 214 205 760

TERMINAL I.5.15 60 60 420 60 60 420

NEW TERM. I.5.16 240 0


Total 7.942 7.125 21,54 4.434 8.182 7.125 4.674

ZONE I.6 TERMINAL I.6.1 6.000 4.100 1.000 6.000 4.100 1.000

TERMINAL I.6.2 424 420 56 424 420 56

TERMINAL I.6.3 480 420 0 480 420 0

TERMINAL I.6.4 152 130 0 152 130 0

NEW TERM. I.6.5 20 460

NEW TERM. I.6.6 20 460

NEW TERM. I.6.7 20 460

NEW TERM. I.6.8 384 96

NEW TERM. I.6.9 384 96


Total 7.056 5.070 12,05 1.056 7.884 5.070 3.108

ZONE I.7 TERMINAL I.7.1 3.000 N/A 4.000 3.000 N/A 4.000

TERMINAL I.7.2 384 N/A 500 384 N/A 500

TERMINAL I.7.3 200 N/A 240 200 N/A 240

TERMINAL I.7.4 240 N/A 300 240 N/A 300

TERMINAL I.7.5 40 N/A 240 40 N/A 240

NEW TERM. I.7.6 240 300

NEW TERM. I.7.7 360

Total 3.864 ~3.864 ~20,00 5.280 4.104 ~3.864 5.940

ZONE I.8 TERMINAL I.8.1 1.600 1.340 1.500 1.600 1.340 1.500

TERMINAL I.8.2 576 576 192 576 576 192

TERMINAL I.8.3 576 426 0 576 426 0

TERMINAL I.8.4 576 526 0 576 526 0

TERMINAL I.8.5 240 214 0 240 214 0

TERMINAL I.8.6 180 180 60 180 180 60


48



Penetra-

tion %

Waiting

list Installed


list

Total 3.748 3.262 ~12,61 1.752 3.748 3.262 1.752

ZONE I.9 TERMINAL I.9.1 960 960 800 960 960 800

NEW TERM. I.9.2 240

NEW TERM. I.9.3 240

NEW TERM. I.9.4 240

Total 960 960 7,01 800 960 960 1.520

ZONE I.10 TERMINAL I.10.1 1.300 1.300 1.500 1.300 1.300 1.500

TERMINAL I.10.2 160 160 416 160 160 416

TERMINAL I.10.3 160 160 224 160 160 224

TERMINAL I.10.4 576 576 424 576 576 424

TERMINAL I.10.5 192 192 192 192 192 192

TERMINAL I.10.6 192 192 192 192 192 192


Total 2.580 2.580 41,24 2.948 2.580 2.580 3.188

ZONE I.11 TERMINAL I.11.1 3.000 N/A 4.000 3.000 N/A 4.000

NEW TERM. I.11.2 200 340

NEW TERM. I.11.3 160 240




Total 3.000 ~3.000 ~27,34 4.000 3.360 ~3.000 5.380

ZONE I.12 NEW TERM. I.12.1 240 0 1.000

NEW TERM. I.12.2 240 0 1.000

NEW TERM. I.12.3 0 0 240

NEW TERM. I.12.4 180 0 240

NEW TERM. I.12.5 0 0 240

Total 660 0 2.720

TOTAL OF

REGION I

102.364 89.170 24,44 48.382 105.232 89.170 62.094

ZONE II.1 TERMINAL II.1.1 11.736 10.794 3.000 11.736 10.794 3.000

TERMINAL II.1.2 768 635 200 768 635 200

TERMINAL II.1.3 768 388 200 768 388 200

TERMINAL II.1.4 384 283 220 384 283 220

TERMINAL II.1.5 384 111 185 384 111 185

TERMINAL II.1.6 480 289 100 480 289 100

TERMINAL II.1.7 214 90 220 214 90 220

TERMINAL II.1.8 214 144 110 214 144 110

TERMINAL II.1.9 214 197 180 214 197 180

TERMINAL II.1.10 800 356 800 356 TERMINAL II.1.11 180 169 120 180 169 120

TERMINAL II.1.12 180 170 120 180 170 120

TERMINAL II.1.13 180 137 50 180 137 50

TERMINAL II.1.14 180 166 200 180 166 200

TERMINAL II.1.15 214 128 120 214 128 120

TERMINAL II.1.16 214 104 200 214 104 200

TERMINAL II.1.17 120 40 200 120 40 200


49



Penetra-

tion %

Waiting

list Installed


list

NEW TERM. II.1.18

NEW TERM. II.1.19

NEW TERM. II.1.20

NEW TERM. II.1.21 1.600 1.600 0

NEW TERM. II.1.22 180 180 300

NEW TERM. II.1.23 240



Total 17.230 14.201 17,89 5.425 19.010 15.981 6.445

ZONE II.2 TERMINAL II.2.1 3.048 2.380 2.000 3.048 2.380 2.000

TERMINAL II.2.2 60 60 300 60 60 300

TERMINAL II.2.3 240 225 200 240 225 200

TERMINAL II.2.4 180 180 200 180 180 200

TERMINAL II.2.5 180 130 200 180 130 200

TERMINAL II.2.6 270 230 400 270 230 400

TERMINAL II.2.7 600 590 1.000 600 590 1.000

NEW TERM. II.2.8 180 180 60

NEW TERM. II.2.9 180 180 60

NEW TERM. II.2.10 160 160 80

NEW TERM. II.2.11 60 60 120

NEW TERM. II.2.12 180 180 60

NEW TERM. II.2.13 0 0 240

Total 4.578 3.795 12,95 4.300 5.338 4.555 4.920

ZONE II.3

TERMINAL II.3.1 3.248 3.200 2.000 3.248 3.200 2.000

TERMINAL II.3.2 768 650 200 768 650 200

TERMINAL II.3.3 300 300 200 300 300 200

TERMINAL II.3.4 450 400 200 450 400 200

TERMINAL II.3.5 180 180 180 180 180 180

NEW TERM. II.3.6 0 0 240

NEW TERM. II.3.7 0 0 240

NEW TERM. II.3.7 0 0 240

NEW TERM. II.3.8 0 0 240

Total 4.946 4.730 21,23 2.780 4.946 4.730 3.740

TOTAL OF

REGION II

26.754 22.726 17,36 12.505 29.294 25.266 15.105

ZONE III.1 TERMINAL III.1.1 10.680 9.780 5.320 10.680 9.780 5.320

TERMINAL III.1.2 490 490 500 490 490 500

TERMINAL III.1.3 240 218 120 240 218 120

TERMINAL III.1.4 768 769 732 768 769 732

TERMINAL III.1.5 1.152 886 480 1.152 886 480

TERMINAL III.1.6 100 100 250 100 100 250

TERMINAL III.1.7 384 384 192 384 384 192

TERMINAL III.1.8 576 0 576 0 TERMINAL III.1.9 576 576 1.424 576 576 1.424

TERMINAL III.1.10 576 576 192 576 576 192

TERMINAL III.1.11 576 576 576 576 TERMINAL III.1.12 576 576 250 576 576 250

NEW TERM. III.1.13 960 960 1.040

NEW TERM. III.1.14 576 576 192

NEW TERM. III.1.15 480 480 0


50



Penetra-

tion %

Waiting

list Installed


list

NEW TERM. III.1.16 500 500 0

NEW TERM. III.1.17 120 120 120

NEW TERM. III.1.18 384 384 384

NEW TERM. III.1.19 384 384 192

NEW TERM. III.1.20 180 180 60

NEW TERM. III.1.21 576 576 192

Total 16.694 14.931 20,64 9.460 20.854 19.091 11.640


TERMINAL III.2.2 384 288 240 384 288 240

TERMINAL III.2.3 1.000 910 400 1.000 910 400

TERMINAL III.2.4 576 353 192 576 353 192

NEW TERM. III.2.5 120 120 120

NEW TERM. III.2.6 180 180 60

NEW TERM. III.2.7 180 180 60

NEW TERM. III.2.8 192 192 192

Total 6.960 3.201 8,05 1.832 7.632 3.873 2.264


NEW TERM. III.3.2 180 180 60

NEW TERM. III.3.3 180 180 60

NEW TERM. III.3.4 180 180 60

NEW TERM. III.3.5 40 40 200

NEW TERM. III.3.6 384 384 192

NEW TERM. III.3.7 120 120 60

Total 5.000 2.420 10,10 1.000 6.084 3.504 1.632


TERMINAL III.4.2 400 400 200 400 400 200

TERMINAL III.4.3 180 180 100 180 180 100

TERMINAL III.4.4 256 205 100 256 205 100

TERMINAL III.4.5 360 310 150 360 310 150

TERMINAL III.4.6 360 205 480 360 205 480

NEW TERM. III.4.7 0 0 240

Total 5.856 3.620 14,89 2.730 5.856 3.620 2.970

TOTAL OF

REGION III

34.510 24.172 15,01 15.022 40.426 30.088 18.506

ZONE IV.1 TERMINAL IV.1.1 9.792 6.196 9.792 6.196 TERMINAL IV.1.2 0 0 0 0 TERMINAL IV.1.3 256 246 256 246 TERMINAL IV.1.4 576 472 576 472 TERMINAL IV.1.5 0 0 0 0 TERMINAL IV.1.6 192 0 192 0 TERMINAL IV.1.7 440 293 440 293 TERMINAL IV.1.8 192 0 192 0 TERMINAL IV.1.9 180 19 180 19 TERMINAL IV.1.10 800 26 800 26 NEW TERM. IV.1.11 0 0

NEW TERM. IV.1.12 0 0

NEW TERM. IV.1.13 0 0


51



Penetra-

tion %

Waiting

list Installed


list

Total 12.428 7.252 11,77 12.428 7.252

ZONE IV.2 TERMINAL IV.2.1 2.400 1.558 2.400 1.558 TERMINAL IV.2.2 1.152 827 1.152 827 TERMINAL IV.2.3 684 349 684 349 TERMINAL IV.2.4 768 566 768 566 TERMINAL IV.2.5 600 289 600 289

Total 5.604 3.589 15,49 5.604 3.589

TOTAL OF

REGION IV

18.032 10.841 12,79 0 18.032 10.841 0

ZONE V.1 TERMINAL V.1.1 10.096 10.048 2.500 10.096 10.048 2.500

TERMINAL V.1.2 256 256 250 256 256 250

TERMINAL V.1.3 384 340 100 384 340 100

TERMINAL V.1.4 256 256 0 256 256 0

TERMINAL V.1.5 512 410 300 512 410 300

TERMINAL V.1.6 256 256 200 256 256 200

TERMINAL V.1.7 384 384 50 384 384 50

TERMINAL V.1.8 384 384 100 384 384 100

TERMINAL V.1.9 640 530 200 640 530 200

TERMINAL V.1.10 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000

TERMINAL V.1.11 896 896 0 896 896 0

TERMINAL V.1.12 504 490 250 504 490 250

TERMINAL V.1.13 356 356 100 356 356 100

TERMINAL V.1.14 256 150 180 256 150 180

TERMINAL V.1.15 512 512 100 512 512 100

TERMINAL V.1.16 256 240 180 256 240 180

TERMINAL V.1.17 320 192 300 320 192 300

TERMINAL V.1.18 256 180 200 256 180 200

Total 17.524 16.880 24,72 6.010 20.854 19.091 11.640

ZONE V.2 TERMINAL V.2.1 3.000 1.500 300 3.000 1.500 300

TERMINAL V.2.2 160 160 100 160 160 100

NEW TERM. V.2.3 0 N/A

Total 3.160 1660 7,26 400 3.160 1660 400

ZONE V.3 TERMINAL V.3.1 980 800 980 980 800 980

TERMINAL V.3.2 60 60 60 60 60 60

Total 1040 860 4,75 500 1040 860 500

TOTAL OF

REGION V

21.724 19.400 17,76 6.910 21.724 19.400 6.910

ZONE VI.1 TERMINAL VI.1.1 6.000 4.009 1.000 6.000 4.009 1.000

TERMINAL VI.1.2 395 258 60 395 258 60

TERMINAL VI.1.3 800 695 1.000 800 695 1.000

TERMINAL VI.1.4 576 452 80 576 452 80

TERMINAL VI.1.5 384 349 100 384 349 100

TERMINAL VI.1.6 192 192 0 192 192 0

TERMINAL VI.1.7 974 0 974 0

TERMINAL VI.1.8 240 0 240 0


52



Penetra-

tion %

Waiting

list Installed


list

TERMINAL VI.1.9 768 285 0 768 285 0

TERMINAL VI.1.10 768 187 0 768 187 0

TERMINAL VI.1.11 160 26 0 160 26 0

TERMINAL VI.1.12 384 0 0 384 0 0

TERMINAL VI.1.13 384 0 0 384 0 0

TERMINAL VI.1.14 160 0 0 160 0 0

Total 12.185 6.453 11,28 2.240 12.185 6.453 2.240

ZONE VI.2 TERMINAL VI.2.1 3.000 1.633 100 3.000 1.633 100

TERMINAL VI.2.2 2.000 985 0 2.000 985 0

TERMINAL VI.2.3 800 683 200 800 683 200

TERMINAL VI.2.4 160 154 30 160 154 30

TERMINAL VI.2.5 160 0 0 160 0 0

Total 6.120 3.455 11,27 330 6.120 3.455 330

ZONE VI.3 TERMINAL VI.3.1 3.000 0 0 3.000 0 0

Total 3.000 0 ~10,40 3.000 0 0

ZONE VI.4 TERMINAL VI.4.1 1.912 1.430 1.000 1.912 1.430 1.000

Total 1.912 1.430 6,04 1.000 1.912 1.430 1.000

TOTAL OF

REGION VI

23.217 11.338 8,08 3.570 23.217 11.338 3.570

ZONE VII.1 TERMINAL VII.1.1 3.000 2.558 1.000 3.000 2.558 1.000

TERMINAL VII.1.2 550 205 0 550 205 0

TERMINAL VII.1.3 280 96 0 280 96 0

TERMINAL VII.1.4 320 319 500 320 319 500

TERMINAL VII.1.5 400 103 0 400 103 0

TERMINAL VII.1.6 2.000 750 5.000 2.000 750 5.000

NEW TERM. VII.1.7 60 60 100 60 60 100

Total 6.610 4.091 35,55 6.600 6.610 4.091 6.700

ZONE VII.2 TERMINAL VII.2.1 2.220 1.597 1.000 2.220 1.597 1.000

TERMINAL VII.2.2 180 133 0 180 133 0

TERMINAL VII.2.3 60 0 0 60 0 0

TERMINAL VII.2.4 60 4 200 60 4 200

TERMINAL VII.2.5 180 30 0 180 30 0

Total 2.700 1.764 16,80 1.200 2.700 1.764 1.200

ZONE VII.3 TERMINAL VII.3.1 600 200 0 600 200 0

Total 600 200 4,05 0 600 200 0

ZONE VII.4 TERMINAL VII.4.1 500 490 200 500 490 200

Total 500 490 14,91 200 500 490 200

ZONE VII.5 TERMINAL VII.5.1 1.000 950 500 1.000 950 500

Total 1.000 950 21,22 500 1.000 950 500

TOTAL OF

REGION VII

11.410 7.495 21,60 8.500 11.410 7.495 8.500


53



Penetra-

tion %

Waiting

list Installed


list

ZONE VIII.1 TERMINAL VIII.1.1 5.048 4.060 500 5.048 4.060 500

TERMINAL VIII.1.2 384 301 0 384 301 0

TERMINAL VIII.1.3 120 0 0 120 0 0

TERMINAL VIII.1.4 100 57 0 100 57 0

TERMINAL VIII.1.5 60 0 0 60 0 0

Total 5.712 4.418 15,46 500 5.712 4.418 500

ZONE VIII.2 TERMINAL VIII.2.1 3.010 1.473 300 3.010 1.473 300

TERMINAL VIII.2.2 60 0 0 60 0 0

TERMINAL VIII.2.3 20 0 0 20 0 0

Total 3.090 1.473 9,57 300 3.090 1.473 300

ZONE VIII.3 TERMINAL VIII.3.1 1.200 714 300 1.200 714 300

TERMINAL VIII.3.2 400 391 0 400 391 0

TERMINAL VIII.3.3 384 217 0 384 217 0

Total 1.984 1322 16,19 300 1.984 1322 300

ZONE VIII.4

TERMINAL VIII.4.1 3.000 1.927 400 3.000 1.927 400

TERMINAL VIII.4.2 120 0 0 120 0 0

TERMINAL VIII.4.3 180 56 0 180 56 0

TERMINAL VIII.4.4 60 31 0 60 31 0

TERMINAL VIII.4.5 0 0 0 0 0 0

TERMINAL VIII.4.6 140 140 0 140 140 0

Total 3.500 2.154 14,40 400 3.500 2.154 400

ZONE VIII.5 TERMINAL VIII.5.1 900 895 100 900 895 100

Total 900 895 14,22 100 900 895 100

TOTAL OF

REGION VIII

15.186 10.262 13,98 1.600 15.186 10.262 1.600

ZONE IX.1 TERMINAL IX.1.1 6.000 5.800 2.000 6.000 5.800 2.000

Total 6.000 5.800 26,62 2.000 6.000 5.800 2.000

ZONE IX.2 TERMINAL IX.2.1 1.680 1.200 0 1.680 1.200 0

Total 1.680 1.200 15,69 0 1.680 1.200 0 ZONE IX.3 TERMINAL IX.3.1 1.000 900 1.000 1.000 900 1.000

Total 1.000 900 8,85 1.000 1.000 900 1.000 ZONE IX.4 TERMINAL IX.4.1 500 500 1.000 500 500 1.000

TERMINAL IX.4.1 20 20 0 20 20 0

TERMINAL IX.4.1 60 0 0 60 0 0

TERMINAL IX.4.1 200 0 0 200 0 0

Total 780 520 17,71 1.000 780 520 1.000

ZONE IX.5 TERMINAL IX.5.1 2.400 2.180 1.000 2.400 2.180 1.000

Total 2.400 2.180 23,29 1.000 2.400 2.180 1.000

TOTAL OF

REGION IX

11.860 10.600 20,42 5.000 11.860 10.600 5.000


54



Penetra-

tion %

Waiting

list Installed


list

COUNTRY

TOTAL

265.057 206.004 17,88 100.489 276.381 214.460 121.285

Due to the lack of reliable historical data and the absence of development during the

last few years, it is not possible to make a projection, concerning the development and

the future demand based on historical evidence.

The comparison method (see par. 1.2.2.3) implies that the forecasting of the telephone

density in a country is based on previous developments in another, already more

developed country. This method can be used as guidance for getting an idea of the

long-term development, but there are hardly any two countries, which are developing

in parallel.

In such cases, an alternative method is employed for forecasting based on

Econometric Studies. This results into population estimates, concerning the net local

product, industrial, as well as agricultural. Information relative to all the above-

mentioned items is extremely poor, nevertheless the study is conducted using every

available piece of information and comparisons are made with similar situations in

Europe, as well as in the rest of the World. All these indicate the necessity of adapting

the ITU-T forecasting rules for a country like “Republic” which is under special

circumstances.

2.2 METHODOLOGY of SUBSCRIBER DEMAND

FORECASTING

In order to forecast the subscriber demand the following steps are taken:

a) Examination of historical data.

b) Identification of saturation level.

c) Residential subscriber forecasting, i.e.

- estimation of population

- estimation of the number of households

- estimation of residential subscribers.

d) Business subscriber forecasting, i.e.

- estimation of business subscribers growth rate

- estimation of business subscribers.

2.2.1 Examination of Historical Data

The data for the “Republic” PTT, to be used for the needs of subscriber forecasting

and demand forecasting, are assumed to be the following:

a) Installed capacity of the corresponding Terminal exchanges (Table 2.1).


55

b) Connected (in use) capacity of the above mentioned Terminal exchanges (Table

2.1).

c) Incomplete waiting list per Terminal exchange area (see Table 2.1).

d) Population in years 1991 and 1993 and estimated population in the year 1996

(Table 2.2).

e) Number of Households for the years 1991, 1993 and an estimate for the year

1996 on a per group exchange area basis (see Table 2.3).

e) Historical data of the Former State of “Republic”, that had to do with the

occupation of the population in various activities (see Table 2.4),

f) Data that had to do with the economic development of the Former State of

“Republic” per group exchange area basis (see Table 2.4).

g) Historical data from the document “MEDIUM-TERM DEVELOPMENT PLAN

91-95” PTT Former State of “Republic” (34).

h) Historical data from the document “GENERAL PLAN OF TELEPHON

NETWORK” PTT Former State of “Republic” (35).

Based on the degree of completion of the above data and taking into account the

assumed special conditions for the present, we have come to the conclusion that they

do not fulfil the necessary requirements for reliable input data to be used for the

application of one or more of the forecasting techniques mentioned in the previous

paragraph 2.1.

Table 2.1 presents historical data before and after the war. A detailed examination of

these data shows that:

a) In certain zones there are no historical data of waiting lists (e.g. zone IV.1).

b) In certain zones there is no information available about lines in use (e.g. zone

VI.3).

c) In certain zones waiting list is just estimation (e.g. zone I.1).

d) In certain zones there is no available estimation about population, lines in use

and waiting lists are just estimation (e.g. zone I.7).

e) In certain zones there is a considerable difference (of the order of 50%) between

installed lines and in use lines because population evacuated the area.

f) There is a serious problem for the validation of the new Terminal exchange

areas, as well as for those areas (the areas of zones I.11 and I.12), which have

been recently integrated in the “Republic”, and for which there is no existing

infrastructure or information about it.

g) Special attention is given to the Region VII because of the dynamic situations

that have been formed concerning peoples’ mobilization and the installation of

the new Administrative center.

h) A total percentage of 22,28% of the installed capacity in the country is not in

use, while in some zones capacity is desperately needed.

i) The total penetration in the country is 17,88% but it shows a great variety

between the zones, ranging from 41,2% in zone I.1 of the “Capital” to 4,05% in

the mountainous zone VII.3.

2.2.2 Identification of Saturation Level

There are different mathematical methods for calculating the telephone density, with

some mathematical formulas, which comprise a saturation value (see par. 1.2.2.1).


56

The parameters in these formulas have to be estimated from the historical

development of the telephone density and a saturation value has to be assumed, which

is very difficult.

As a consequence, the development in countries, such as the “Republic” with a low

telephone density, will probably be much faster than other historical developments.

Table 1.2 illustrates the development of the subscriber density. Table 1.2 helps us to

identify the potential saturation value for a country under special circumstances, 20

years later. A target penetration value of 58% is expected, given the development

between years 1990 and 1996 of the telephone networks in the countries of the

“Republic’s” region.

2.2.3 Residential Subscriber Forecasting

2.2.3.1 Population Estimation per Terminal Exchange Area

A basic parameter for “Subscriber Forecasting” is the one describing the existing

population in a Terminal exchange area, as well as its projection for the next 20 years

at least.

Because of the situation after the war, with the scattering of the population to cities

and villages, as well as with their forced relocation, we assume that PTT would not be

able to provide data concerning the population per terminal exchange area. Therefore,

it is an absolute necessity to estimate the number of existing subscribers per Zone

exchange area, as well as to forecast its evolution for the next 20-years, in order to

develop the whole set of forecasting activities.

The data, concerning the population, should be considered as a gross sum per Zone

exchange area for the year 1991 (that is before the war), for the year 1993 (during the

war) and estimation for the year 1996. In table 2.2 we can see a decrease of

population. This is mainly due to emigration in order to avoid participation in war

activities. Based on the assumed information provided by the University of the

“Capital” of the “Republic”, the annual rate of population increase is estimated to be

1,5 %.

Table 2.2

Population Forecast

ZONE

AREA

Population Population Estimated

Population

Forecasted

Population

Forecasted

Population

Forecasted

Population

Forecasted

Population

1991 1993 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Zone 1 195.139 165.039 137.671 146119 157412 169577 182683

Total Zone 2 18.666 13.169 13.977 15.057 16.221 17.475

Total Zone 3 29.910 21.102 22.397 24.128 25.993 28.001

Total Zone 4 60.002 50.546 42.331 44.929 48.401 52.141 56.171

Total Zone 5 46.894 33.084 35.114 37.828 40.751 43.901

Total Zone 6 59.632 42.070 44.652 48.102 51.820 55.825

Total Zone 7 27.379 19.316 20.501 22.086 23.793 25.631

Total Zone 8 36.670 22.051 25.871 27.459 29.581 31.867 34.330


57

ZONE

AREA


Population

Forecasted

Population

Forecasted

Population

Forecasted

Population

Forecasted

Population

1991 1993 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Zone 9 14.615 13.720 13.698 14.539 15.662 16.873 18.177

Total Zone 10 21.660 6.256 6.256 6.640 7.153 7.706 8.301

Total Zone 11 15.553 10.973 11.646 12.546 13.516 14.561

Total Zone 12 13000*Esti

m

REGION I 526.120 257.612 365.541 387.972 417.956 450.257 485.055

Total Zone 1 112.470 65.557 79.348 84.217 90.726 97.737 105.291

Total Zone 2 41.541 31.925 29.307 31.105 33.509 36.099 38.889

Total Zone 3 31.577 24.538 22.278 23.645 25.472 27.441 29.562

REGION II 185.588 122.020 130.933 138.968 149.707 161.277 173.742

Total Zone 1 86.243 48.014 72.346 76.785 82.720 89.113 96.000

Total Zone 2 56.828 21.487 39.739 42.178 45.437 48.949 52.732

Total Zone 3 33.517 11.882 23.960 25.430 27.396 29.513 31.794

Total Zone 4 35.413 17.592 24.984 26.517 28.566 30.774 33.153

REGION III 212.001 98.975 161.029 170.910 184.119 198.348 213.678

Total Zone 1 56.629 22.416 61.613 65.394 70.448 75.892 81.757

Total Zone 2 24.113 15.882 23.165 24.586 26.487 28.534 30.739

REGION IV 80.742 38.298 84.778 89.980 96.934 104.426 112.496

Total Zone 1 96.796 92.747 68.290 72.481 78.082 84.117 90.617

Total Zone 2 19.988 16.584 22.858 24.261 26.136 28.155 30.331

Total Zone 3 19.300 16.455 18.090 19.200 20.684 22.282 24.005

REGION V 136.084 125.786 109.238 115.941 124.902 134.555 144.953

Total Zone 1 68.881 37.377 57.224 60.735 65.429 70.486 75.933

Total Zone 2 43.456 24.921 30.658 32.539 35.054 37.763 40.682

Total Zone 3 37.211 3.454 28.763 30.528 32.887 35.429 38.167

Total Zone 4 33.575 11.484 23.687 25.141 27.083 29.177 31.431

REGION VI 183.123 77.236 140.332 148.943 160.454 172.855 186.214

Total Zone 1 14.827 18.942 11.507 12.213 13.157 14.174 15.269

Total Zone 2 14.883 12.332 10.500 11.144 12.006 12.933 13.933

Total Zone 3 3.983 4.936 5.239 5.644 6.080 6.550

Total zone 4 4.282 4.580 3.286 3.488 3.757 4.048 4.360

Total Zone 5 6.085 4.044 4.477 4.752 5.119 5.515 5.941

REGION VII 44.060 39.898 34.706 36.836 39.682 42.749 46.053

Total Zone 1 35.520 17.072 28.582 30.336 32.680 35.206 37.927


58

ZONE

AREA


Population

Forecasted

Population

Forecasted

Population

Forecasted

Population

Forecasted

Population

1991 1993 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Zone 2 21.369 9.094 15.388 16.332 17.594 18.954 20.419

Total Zone 3 11.572 7.342 8.164 8.665 9.335 10.056 10.833

Total Zone 4 21.202 7.760 14.958 15.876 17.103 18.425 19.849

Total Zone 5 8.918 5.623 6.292 6.678 7.194 7.750 8.349

REGION VIII 98.581 46.891 73.384 77.887 83.907 90.391 97.377

Total Zone 1 29.162 26.178 21.785 23.122 24.909 26.834 28.908

Total Zone 2 10.844 9.510 7.650 8.119 8.747 9.423 10.151

Total Zone 3 13.752 19.076 10.174 10.798 11.633 12.532 13.500

Total Zone 4 4.088 4.350 2.936 3.116 3.357 3.616 3.896

Total Zone 5 13.269 12.926 9.361 9.935 10.703 11.530 12.422

REGION IX 71.115 72.040 51.906 55.091 59.349 63.936 68.877

COUNTRY 1.537.414 878.756 1.151.847 1.222.528 1.317.010 1.418.794 1.528.444

Based on the above-mentioned few and rather poor information, approximations for

the existing population per Zone exchange area were estimated for the year 1996 and

are presented in Table 2.2.

Then, using the previously mentioned rate of population increase of 1,5% per year,

the forecasting was applied on a 5-year increment basis, up to year 2016. The results

of this procedure are shown in Table 2.2.

2.2.3.2 Estimation of the Number of Households

The number of future households (10n) is calculated by dividing the estimated future

population by the average number of household members (Hi).

Estimated future population

Predicted number of households (Hi,t) =

Average number of household members

Based on recent historical trends, the average number of household members is

expected to remain the same as the present one. Data concerning the number of

Households for years 1991, 1993 and 1996 were provided as shown in Table 2.3. The

average number of household member ranges from 2.3 to 4.3 per Zone exchange area

and is given in tables 2.2 and 2.3 for the year 1991, with an adjustment due to the new

situation resulting from the demographic and social-economic conditions in the

“Republic”.


59

As a result, for each Group Exchange Area, we can calculate a special characteristic

number of inhabitants/households and, based on that and the above-mentioned factors,

household forecasts can be conducted for the future years, as shown in Table 2.3.

Table 2.3

Household Forecast

ZONE Households Households Households Households Households Households Households

AREA 1991 1993 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Zone 1 58.720 50.151 41.718 44.278 47.701 51.387 55.358

Total Zone 2 4.829 3.466 3.678 3.962 4.269 4.599

Total Zone 3 8.992 6.206 6.587 7.096 7.645 8.236

Total Zone 4 17.254 15.725 12.450 13.214 14.236 15.336 16.521

Total Zone 5 12.864 9.190 9.754 10.508 11.320 12.195

Total Zone 6 15.513 11.686 12.403 13.362 14.394 15.507

Total Zone 7 7.596 5.519 5.857 6.310 6.798 7.323

Total Zone 8 8.540 5.110 6.468 6.865 7.395 7.967 8.583

Total Zone 9 3.459 3.327 3.425 3.635 3.916 4.218 4.544

Total Zone 10 1.787 1.897 2.044 2.202 2.372

Total Zone 11 3.135 3.327 3.585 3.862 4.160

Total Zone 12

REGION I 137.767 74.313 105.050 111.495 120.115 129.398 139.398

Total Zone 1 31.372 19.867 22.671 24.062 25.922 27.925 30.083

Total Zone 2 11.642 9.425 8.620 9.149 9.856 10.617 11.438

Total Zone 3 9.464 7.606 6.552 6.954 7.492 8.071 8.695

REGION II 52.478 36.898 37.843 40.165 43.270 46.613 50.216

Total Zone 1 25.773 15.710 21.278 22.584 24.329 26.210 28.235

Total Zone 2 16.216 6.310 11.354 12.051 12.982 13.985 15.066

Total Zone 3 9.978 3.539 6.846 7.266 7.827 8.432 9.084

Total Zone 4 9.763 4.902 7.138 7.576 8.162 8.793 9.472

REGION III 61.730 30.461 46.616 49.477 53.300 57.420 61.857

Total Zone 1 16.684 7.097 17.604 18.684 20.128 21.683 23.359

Total Zone 2 6.858 4.781 6.619 7.025 7.568 8.153 8.783

REGION IV 23.542 11.878 24.223 25.709 27.696 29.836 32.142

Total Zone 1 27.607 26.077 19.511 20.709 22.309 24.033 25.891

Total Zone 2 5.670 4.606 6.531 6.932 7.467 8.044 8.666

Total Zone 3 5.356 4.702 5.169 5.486 5.910 6.366 6.859

REGION V 38.633 35.385 31.211 33.127 35.686 38.443 41.416

Total Zone 1 17.989 10.229 16.350 17.353 18.694 20.139 21.695

Total Zone 2 11.594 7.634 8.759 9.297 10.015 10.789 11.623

Total Zone 3 8.640 985 8.218 8.722 9.396 10.123 10.905

../../../../../../../../../../../Papamarg/THESISDEMAND1.xls#Sheet1!R2


























































































































































































































































































































60

ZONE Households Households Households Households Households Households Households

AREA 1991 1993 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Zone 4 7.919 3.055 5.922 6.285 6.771 7.294 7.858

REGION VI 46.142 21.903 39.249 41.657 44.876 48.345 52.081

Total Zone 1 4.365 5.323 3.288 3.489 3.759 4.050 4.363

Total Zone 2 4.432 3.702 3.182 3.377 3.638 3.919 4.222

Total Zone 3 1.157 1.410 1.497 1.613 1.737 1.871

Total Zone 4 1.401 1.294 996 1.057 1.138 1.227 1.321

Total Zone 5 1.919 1.302 1.492 1.584 1.706 1.838 1.980

REGION VII 13.274 11.621 10.368 11.004 11.854 12.771 13.757

Total Zone 1 10.632 5.342 8.166 8.667 9.337 10.059 10.836

Total Zone 2 9.094 2.863 5.129 5.444 5.865 6.318 6.806

Total Zone 3 3.391 2.269 3.024 3.209 3.457 3.724 4.012

Total Zone 4 6.338 2.638 4.674 4.961 5.345 5.758 6.203

Total Zone 5 2.592 1.705 1.907 2.024 2.180 2.348 2.530

REGION VIII 32.047 14.817 22.900 24.305 26.184 28.207 30.387

Total Zone 1 8.329 7.498 6.224 6.606 7.117 7.667 8.260

Total Zone 2 2.897 2.496 2.186 2.320 2.500 2.692 2.900

Total Zone 3 3.667 4.859 2.907 3.085 3.324 3.581 3.857

Total Zone 4 1.088 1.171 839 890 959 1.033 1.113

Total Zone 5 3.605 3.242 2.675 2.839 3.058 3.294 3.549

REGION IX 19.586 19.266 14.831 15.740 16.958 18.267 19.679

COUNTRY 425.199 256.542 332.291 352.679 379.939 409.300 440.933

2.2.3.3 Estimation of Residential Subscribers

It is obvious that the main difficulty lies on the calculation of the existing situation per

Terminal exchange area. Since this was proven to be impossible, for the previously

mentioned reasons, an approximation should be made, on the level of Zones.

For the above-mentioned approximation, the following were taken into account:

a) The installed capacity of the corresponding Terminal exchanges (Table 2.1).

b) The connected (in use) capacity of the above mentioned Terminal exchanges

(Table 2.1).

c) The total population estimation on a per group area exchange basis (Table 2.2).

d) The existing penetration (% of population having a main telephone line) per

group area exchange (Table 2.1).

The total number of residential subscribers is calculated on the basis that there is at

least one telephone per household.


61

2.2.4 Business Subscriber Forecasting

The forecasting procedure is divided in the following two steps:

2.2.4.1 Estimation of Business Subscribers Growth Rate

The first step is the determination of the growth rate for business subscribers. This

estimation is based on the assumption that the growth rate for business subscribers is

equal to the growth rate of GDP during the forecasted period. Thus, a growth rate of

2.5% is expected for GDP and the same amount is considered as the average growth

rate for business subscribers.

2.2.4.2 Estimation of Business Subscribers

The second step is the estimation of the country’s business model, i.e. the various

activities and the distribution of the employees in these activities. In the case of the

“Republic”, the number of employees in the main financial activities for the year 1990

is shown in table 2.4.

A model, based on the number of employees, has been established to forecast the

number of the business subscribers.

The number of the Business Subscribers is calculated on the basis of the percentage of

the people occupied in Business in each particular area and a factor, which depends on

the Economic Development of the area and its special perspectives. It is assumed that

in the year 1996, the number of employees was the one of the year 1990, corrected by

the average percentage of population change between the years 1990-1996.

Additionally, special treatment is provided concerning the urban and more developed

area of the “Capital” (Terminal area I.1).

Finally, special attention is given to the area VII because of the de facto dynamic

situations that have been formed considering peoples’ mobilization and installation of

the Administrative Center.

Table 2.4

Occupation of population in various activities for the year 1990 in former

“Republic”

ZONE Total number Percentage National GDP

AREA of employees of employees revenues(1.000DM) (1.000DM)

Total Zone I.1 63.325 18,42 893.283 1.016.436

Total Zone I.2 3.449 1,00 42.171 48.399

Total Zone I.3 4.562 1,33 73.195 79.209

Total Zone I.4 14.387 4,19 256.931 286.135

Total Zone I.5 6.180 1,80 278.018 333.618

Total Zone I.6 8.592 2,50 122.784 141.156

Total Zone I.7 5.289 1,54 68.915 81.780

Total Zone I.8 4.389 1,28 52.942 62.596

Total Zone I.9 2.648 0,77 30.893 34.720


62



Total Zone I.10 4.300 1,25 56.550 63.327

Total Zone I.11 3.660 1,065

Total Zone I.12

REGION I 120.781 1.875.682 2.147.376

Total Zone II.1 23.822 6,93 278.018 333.618

Total Zone II.2 8.928 2,60 116.874 128.386

Total Zone II.3 7.719 2,25 113.281 134.432

REGION II 40.469 11,77 508.173 596.436

Total Zone III.1 22.128 6,44 304.673 344.367

Total Zone III.2 11.750 3,42 150.550 169.230

Total Zone III.3 8.954 2,60 253.050 283.762

Total Zone III.4

REGION III 42.832 12,46 708.273 797.359

Total Zone 1 17.260 5,02

Total Zone 2 6.279 1,83 106.581 122.896

REGION IV 23.539 6,85 106.581 122.896

Total Zone 1 14.059 4,09 260.863 295.769

Total Zone 2 3.546 1,03 50.626 56.855

Total Zone 3 4.325 1,26 84.186 157.914

REGION V 21.930 6,38 395.675 510.538

Total Zone 1 15.075 4,39 312.496 361.489

Total Zone 2 6.370 1,85 110.990 128.633

Total Zone 3 6.803 1,98 32.189 36.072

Total Zone 4 3.726 1,08 53.364 60.671

REGION VI 31.974 9,30 509.039 586.865

Total Zone 1 5.152 1,50 71.651 87.776

Total Zone 2 4.720 1,37 62.011 78.968

Total Zone 3 1.734 0,50 13.818 16.384

Total Zone 4 1.299 0,38 12.410 13.997

Total Zone 5 2.234 0,65 33.725 37.937

REGION VII 15.139 4,40 193.615 235.062

Total Zone 1 10.288 2,99 119.077 144.114

Total Zone 2 4.823 1,40 59.747 67.138

Total Zone 3 1.562 0,45 15.995 17.889

Total Zone 4 4.786 1,39 96.089 174.443

Total Zone 5 2.667 0,78 26.740 30.270

REGION VIII 24.126 7,02 317.648 433.854

Total Zone 1 11.455 3,33 133.272 166.817

Total Zone 2 3.454 1,00 39.697 99.736

Total Zone 3 2.733 0,79 36.094 41.357


63



Total Zone 4 1.386 0,40 17.623 19.447

Total Zone 5 3.918 1,14 42.281 49.517

REGION IX 22.946 6,68 268.967 376.874

COUNTRY 343.736 100 4.883.653 5.807.260

2.2.5 Total Subscriber Forecasting

With the followed methodology, all households up to the year 2016 are supplied with

at least one main line, as far as telephony provision is concerned, and special

emphasis and attention is given to the satisfaction of the needs of the business

subscribers.

After taking into account all the above-mentioned facts, Subscriber Forecasting is

shown in Table 2.5, with final year 2016. The results lead to an average Penetration of

58,06 % for the whole Country, although this Penetration figure varies for each

particular region.

TABLE 2.5

Subscriber demand forecasting per terminal area

TERMINAL

AREA

Existing Demand Demand Demand Demand Demand

Lines 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 TERMINAL I.1.1-

CAPITAL 50.244 65.317 89.355 108.852 122.863 127.360

TERMINAL I.1.2 1.000 1.300 1.778 2.166 2.445 2.535 TERMINAL I.1.3 500 650 889 1.083 1.223 1.267 TERMINAL I.1.4 2.000 2.600 3.557 4.333 4.891 5.070 TERMINAL I.1.5 960 1.248 1.707 2.080 2.348 2.433 TERMINAL I.1.6 768 998 1.365 1.663 1.877 1.946 TERMINAL I.1.7 240 312 427 520 587 608 TERMINAL I.1.8 384 499 683 832 939 973 TERMINAL I.1.9 180 234 320 390 440 456 TERMINAL I.1.10 384 499 683 832 939 973 TERMINAL I.1.11 384 499 683 832 939 973 TERMINAL I.1.12 768 998 1.365 1.663 1.877 1.946 TERMINAL I.1.13 240 312 427 520 587 608 TERMINAL I.1.14 192 250 342 417 470 487 TERMINAL I.1.15 360 468 640 780 880 913 TERMINAL I.1.16 214 278 380 463 523 542 TERMINAL I.1.17 256 333 456 555 626 649 TERMINAL I.1.18 256 333 456 555 626 649 NEW TERM. I.1.19 130 178 217 245 253

NEW TERM. I.1.20 390 534 650 734 760

NEW TERM. I.1.21 390 534 650 734 760

NEW TERM. I.1.22 130 178 217 245 253

../../../../../../../../../../../Papamarg/THESISDEMAND1.xls#Sheet1!AI2











































































































































































64

TERMINAL

AREA


Lines 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

NEW TERM. I.1.30 390 534 650 734 760

Total Zone I.1 59.330 78.558 107.469 130.918 147.770 153.178

TERMINAL I.2.1 1.600 3.040 4.180 4.905 5.228 5.490 TERMINAL I.2.2 240 456 627 736 784 824 NEW TERM. I.2.3 300 570 784 920 980 1.029 NEW TERM. I.2.4 1.330 1.829 2.146 2.287 2.402 NEW TERM. I.2.5 190 261 307 327 343

Total Zone I.2 2.140 5.586 7.681 9.013 9.606 10.088

TERMINAL I.3.1 2.000 3.800 5.426 7.338 8.800 9.320 TERMINAL I.3.2 960 1.824 2.604 3.522 4.224 4.473 NEW TERM. I.3.3 240 456 651 881 1.056 1.118 NEW TERM. I.3.4 760 1.085 1.468 1.760 1.864

Total Zone I.3 3.200 6.840 9.766 13.208 15.840 16.775

TERMINAL I.4.1 5.448 9.262 12.735 14.943 16.398 17.187 TERMINAL I.4.2 512 870 1.196 1.404 1.540 1.614 TERMINAL I.4.3 128 218 300 352 386 405 TERMINAL I.4.4 256 435 598 702 770 807 TERMINAL I.4.5 1.024 1.741 2.394 2.809 3.082 3.231 TERMINAL I.4.6 180 306 421 494 542 568 TERMINAL I.4.7 768 1.306 1.796 2.107 2.312 2.423 TERMINAL I.4.8 384 653 898 1.054 1.156 1.212 TERMINAL I.4.9 384 653 898 1.054 1.156 1.212 NEW TERM. I.4.10 510 701 823 903 946 NEW TERM. I.4.11 680 935 1.097 1.204 1.262 NEW TERM. I.4.12 255 351 411 451 473

Total Zone I.4 9.084 16.888 23.221 27.247 29.900 31.338

TERMINAL I.5.1 3.672 5.508 7.601 11.154 10.063 10.475 TERMINAL I.5.2 214 321 443 650 586 610 TERMINAL I.5.3 214 321 443 650 586 610 TERMINAL I.5.4 214 321 443 650 586 610 TERMINAL I.5.5 420 630 869 1.276 1.151 1.198 TERMINAL I.5.6 672 1.008 1.391 2.041 1.842 1.917 TERMINAL I.5.7 214 321 443 650 586 610 TERMINAL I.5.8 900 1.350 1.863 2.734 2.466 2.567 TERMINAL I.5.9 360 540 745 1.094 987 1.027 TERMINAL I.5.10 300 450 621 911 822 856 TERMINAL I.5.11 214 321 443 650 586 610 TERMINAL I.5.12 60 90 124 182 164 171 TERMINAL I.5.13 214 321 443 650 586 610 TERMINAL I.5.14 214 321 443 650 586 610 TERMINAL I.5.15 60 90 124 182 164 171 NEW TERM. I.5.16 240 360 497 729 658 685 NEW TERM. I.5.17 225 310 456 411 428


65

TERMINAL

AREA


Lines 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Zone I.5 8.182 12.498 17.247 20807 22.833 23.768

TERMINAL I.6.1 6.000 9.000 12.938 16.736 19.693 20.893 TERMINAL I.6.2 424 636 914 1.183 1.392 1.476 TERMINAL I.6.3 480 720 1.035 1.339 1.575 1.671 TERMINAL I.6.4 152 228 328 424 499 529 NEW TERM. I.6.5 20 525 755 976 1.149 1.219 NEW TERM. I.6.6 20 525 755 976 1.149 1.219 NEW TERM. I.6.7 20 525 755 976 1.149 1.219 NEW TERM. I.6.8 384 576 828 1.071 1.260 1.337 NEW TERM. I.6.9 384 576 828 1.071 1.260 1.337 NEW TERM. I.6.10 300 431 558 656 696

Total Zone I.6 7.884 13.611 19.566 25.310 29.782 31.597

TERMINAL I.7.1 TERMINAL I.7.2 3.000 5.700 7.837 9.196 9.801 10.281 TERMINAL I.7.3 384 730 1.004 1.178 1.255 1.317 TERMINAL I.7.4 200 380 522 613 653 685 TERMINAL I.7.5 240 456 627 736 784 822 NEW TERM. I.7.6 40 76 104 123 131 137 NEW TERM. I.7.7 240 456 627 736 784 822 NEW TERM. I.7.8 380 522 613 653 685

Total Zone I.7 4.104 8.178 11.244 13.194 14.062 14.751

TERMINAL I.8.1 1.600 2.560 3.776 5.012 5.794 6.296 TERMINAL I.8.2 576 922 1.360 1.805 2.087 2.267 TERMINAL I.8.3 576 922 1.360 1.805 2.087 2.267 TERMINAL I.8.4 576 922 1.360 1.805 2.087 2.267 TERMINAL I.8.5 240 384 566 752 869 944 TERMINAL I.8.6 180 288 425 564 652 708

Total Zone I.8 3.748 5.997 8.845 11.742 13.572 14.748

TERMINAL I.9.1 960 2.400 3.744 4.926 5.270 5.432 NEW TERM. I.9.2 500 780 1.026 1.098 1.132 NEW TERM. I.9.3 500 780 1.026 1.098 1.132 NEW TERM. I.9.4 500 780 1.026 1.098 1.132

Total Zone I.9 960 3.900 6.084 8.004 8.563 8.827

TERMINAL I.10.1 1.300 1.820 2.198 2.385 2.498 2.650 TERMINAL I.10.2 160 224 271 294 307 326 TERMINAL I.10.3 160 224 271 294 307 326 TERMINAL I.10.4 576 806 973 1.056 1.106 1.174 TERMINAL I.10.5 192 269 325 352 369 392 TERMINAL I.10.6 192 269 325 352 369 392 NEW TERM. I.10.6 280 338 367 384 408


66

TERMINAL

AREA


Lines 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Zone I.10 2.580 3.892 4.700 5.100 5.342 5.667

TERMINAL I.11.1 3.000 4.800 6.300 6.849 7.161 7.623 NEW TERM. I.11.2 200 320 420 457 477 508 NEW TERM. I.11.3 160 256 336 365 382 407 NEW TERM. I.11.4 160 210 228 239 254 NEW TERM. I.11.5 160 210 228 239 254 NEW TERM. I.11.6 160 210 228 239 254

Total Zone I.11 3.360 5.856 7.686 8.356 8.736 9.300

NEW TERM. I.12.1 240 720 1.076 1.348 1.551 1.786 NEW TERM. I.12.2 240 720 1.076 1.348 1.551 1.786 NEW TERM. I.12.3 0 300 448 562 646 744 NEW TERM. I.12.4 180 540 807 1.011 1.163 1.340 NEW TERM. I.12.5 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total Zone I.12 660 2.580 3.857 4.830 5.558 6.400

REGION I 105.232 164.384 227.366 277.729 311.564 326.437

TERMINAL II.1.1 11.736 18.102 27.859 32.821 35.848 37.808 TERMINAL II.1.2 768 1.306 2.010 2.368 2.586 2.728 TERMINAL II.1.3 768 1.306 2.010 2.368 2.586 2.728 TERMINAL II.1.4 384 653 1.005 1.184 1.293 1.364 TERMINAL II.1.5 384 653 1.005 1.184 1.293 1.364 TERMINAL II.1.6 480 816 1.256 1.480 1.616 1.704 TERMINAL II.1.7 214 364 560 660 721 760 TERMINAL II.1.8 214 364 560 660 721 760 TERMINAL II.1.9 214 364 560 660 721 760 TERMINAL II.1.10 800 1.360 2.093 2.466 2.693 2.841 TERMINAL II.1.11 180 306 471 555 606 639 TERMINAL II.1.12 180 306 471 555 606 639 TERMINAL II.1.13 180 306 471 555 606 639 TERMINAL II.1.14 180 306 471 555 606 639 TERMINAL II.1.15 214 364 560 660 721 760 TERMINAL II.1.16 214 364 560 660 721 760 TERMINAL II.1.17 120 204 314 370 404 426 NEW TERM. II.1.18 170 262 308 337 355 NEW TERM. II.1.19 170 262 308 337 355 NEW TERM. II.1.20 170 262 308 337 355 NEW TERM. II.1.21 1.600 2.720 4.186 4.932 5.386 5.681 NEW TERM. II.1.22 180 306 471 555 606 639 NEW TERM. II.1.23 170 262 308 337 355 NEW TERM. II.1.24 170 262 308 337 355 NEW TERM. II.1.25 170 262 308 337 355

Total Zone II.1 19.010 31.487 48.459 57.090 62.354 65.765

TERMINAL II.2.1 3.048 5.486 8.147 9.598 10.483 11.094


67

TERMINAL

AREA


Lines 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 TERMINAL II.2.2 60 108 160 189 206 218 TERMINAL II.2.3 240 432 642 756 826 874 TERMINAL II.2.4 180 324 481 567 619 655 TERMINAL II.2.5 180 324 481 567 619 655 TERMINAL II.2.6 270 486 722 850 929 983 TERMINAL II.2.7 600 1.080 1.604 1.889 2.064 2.184 NEW TERM. II.2.8 180 324 481 567 619 655 NEW TERM. II.2.9 180 324 481 567 619 655 NEW TERM. II.2.10 160 288 428 504 550 582 NEW TERM. II.2.11 60 108 160 189 206 218 NEW TERM. II.2.12 180 324 481 567 619 655 NEW TERM. II.2.13 0 180 267 315 344 364

Total Zone II.2 5.338 9.788 14.536 17.124 18.704 19.795

TERMINAL II.3.1 3.248 4.872 6.699 8.237 9.122 9.674 TERMINAL II.3.2 768 1.152 1.584 1.948 2.157 2.287 TERMINAL II.3.3 300 450 619 761 843 893 TERMINAL II.3.4 450 675 928 1.141 1.264 1.340 TERMINAL II.3.5 180 270 371 456 506 536 NEW TERM. II.3.6 0 150 206 254 281 298 NEW TERM. II.3.7 0 150 206 254 281 298 NEW TERM. II.3.7 0 150 206 254 281 298 NEW TERM. II.3.8 0 150 206 254 281 298

Total Zone II.3 4.946 8.019 11.026 13.557 15.014 15.922

REGION II 29.294 49.294 74.021 87.771 96.072 101.481

TERMINAL III.1.1 10.680 14.952 19.736 23.251 25.395 27.075 TERMINAL III.1.2 490 686 906 1.067 1.165 1.242 TERMINAL III.1.3 240 336 444 523 571 608 TERMINAL III.1.4 768 1.075 1.419 1.672 1.826 1.947 TERMINAL III.1.5 1.152 1.613 2.129 2.508 2.740 2.921 TERMINAL III.1.6 100 140 185 218 238 254 TERMINAL III.1.7 384 538 710 837 914 974 TERMINAL III.1.8 576 806 1.064 1.253 1.369 1.459 TERMINAL III.1.9 576 806 1.064 1.253 1.369 1.459 TERMINAL III.1.10 576 806 1.064 1.253 1.369 1.459 TERMINAL III.1.11 576 806 1.064 1.253 1.369 1.459 TERMINAL III.1.12 576 806 1.064 1.253 1.369 1.459 NEW TERM. III.1.13 960 1.344 1.774 2.090 2.283 2.434 NEW TERM. III.1.14 576 806 1.064 1.253 1.369 1.459 NEW TERM. III.1.15 480 672 887 1.045 1.141 1.217 NEW TERM. III.1.16 500 700 924 1.089 1.189 1.268 NEW TERM. III.1.17 120 168 222 261 285 304 NEW TERM. III.1.18 384 538 710 837 914 974 NEW TERM. III.1.19 384 538 710 837 914 974 NEW TERM. III.1.20 180 252 333 392 428 456 NEW TERM. III.1.21 576 806 1.064 1.253 1.369 1.459


68

TERMINAL

AREA


Lines 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Zone III.1 20.854 29.196 38.538 45.402 49.588 52.867

TERMINAL III.2.1 5.000 7.000 10.248 14.203 16.405 17.729 TERMINAL III.2.2 384 538 788 1.092 1.261 1.363 TERMINAL III.2.3 1.000 1.400 2.050 2.841 3.281 3.546 TERMINAL III.2.4 576 806 1.180 1.635 1.889 2.041 NEW TERM. III.2.5 120 168 246 341 394 425 NEW TERM. III.2.6 180 252 369 511 591 638 NEW TERM. III.2.7 180 252 369 511 591 638 NEW TERM. III.2.8 192 269 394 546 630 681

Total Zone III.2 7.632 10.685 15.643 21.680 25.041 27.062

TERMINAL III.3.1 5.000 7.000 9.659 11.435 12.915 13.746 NEW TERM. III.3.2 180 252 348 412 465 495 NEW TERM. III.3.3 180 252 348 412 465 495 NEW TERM. III.3.4 180 252 348 412 465 495 NEW TERM. III.3.5 40 56 77 91 103 110 NEW TERM. III.3.6 384 538 742 879 993 1.056 NEW TERM. III.3.7 120 168 232 274 310 330

Total Zone III.3 6.084 8.518 11.754 13.915 15.716 16.727

TERMINAL III.4.1 4.300 6.020 8.226 10.114 11.201 11.841 TERMINAL III.4.2 400 560 765 941 1.042 1.102 TERMINAL III.4.3 180 252 344 423 469 496 TERMINAL III.4.4 256 358 489 601 666 704 TERMINAL III.4.5 360 504 689 847 938 991 TERMINAL III.4.6 360 504 689 847 938 991 NEW TERM. III.4.7 0 140 191 235 260 275

Total Zone III.4 5.856 8.338 11.394 14.009 15.514 16.401

REGION III 40.426 56.737 77.329 95.006 105.859 113.057

TERMINAL IV.1.1 9.792 13.709 20.070 27.817 32.129 33.738 TERMINAL IV.1.2 0 140 205 284 328 345 TERMINAL IV.1.3 256 358 524 726 839 881 TERMINAL IV.1.4 576 806 1.180 1.635 1.889 1.984 TERMINAL IV.1.5 0 140 205 284 328 345 TERMINAL IV.1.6 192 269 394 546 630 662 TERMINAL IV.1.7 440 616 902 1.250 1.444 1.516 TERMINAL IV.1.8 192 269 394 546 630 662 TERMINAL IV.1.9 180 252 369 511 591 620 TERMINAL IV.1.10 800 1.120 1.640 2.273 2.625 2.756 NEW TERM. IV.1.11 0 140 205 284 328 345 NEW TERM. IV.1.12 0 140 205 284 328 345 NEW TERM. IV.1.13 0 140 205 284 328 345

Total Zone IV.1 12.428 18.099 26.497 36.725 42.418 44.541

TERMINAL IV.2.1 2.400 3.360 4.830 5.798 6.151 6.503


69

TERMINAL

AREA


Lines 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 TERMINAL IV.2.2 1.152 1.613 2.319 2.783 2.953 3.122 TERMINAL IV.2.3 684 958 1.377 1.653 1.754 1.854 TERMINAL IV.2.4 768 1.075 1.545 1.855 1.968 2.081 TERMINAL IV.2.5 600 840 1.207 1.449 1.538 1.626

Total Zone IV.2 5.604 7.846 11.278 13.539 14.363 15.185

REGION IV 18.032 25.945 37.775 50.264 56.781 59.726

TERMINAL V.1.1 10.096 14.134 20.317 24.392 25.875 27.042 TERMINAL V.1.2 256 358 515 618 655 685 TERMINAL V.1.3 384 538 773 928 985 1.029 TERMINAL V.1.4 256 358 515 618 655 685 TERMINAL V.1.5 512 717 1.031 1.237 1.313 1.372 TERMINAL V.1.6 256 358 515 618 655 685 TERMINAL V.1.7 384 538 773 928 985 1.029 TERMINAL V.1.8 384 538 773 928 985 1.029 TERMINAL V.1.9 640 896 1.288 1.546 1.640 1.714 TERMINAL V.1.10 1.000 1.400 2.012 2.416 2.563 2.679 TERMINAL V.1.11 896 1.254 1.803 2.164 2.296 2.399 TERMINAL V.1.12 504 706 1.015 1.218 1.292 1.351 TERMINAL V.1.13 356 498 716 859 912 953 TERMINAL V.1.14 256 358 515 618 655 685 TERMINAL V.1.15 512 717 1.031 1.237 1.313 1.372 TERMINAL V.1.16 256 358 515 618 655 685 TERMINAL V.1.17 320 448 644 773 820 857 TERMINAL V.1.18 256 358 515 618 655 685

Total Zone V.1 17.524 24.534 35.267 42.340 44.914 46.940

TERMINAL V.2.1 3.000 4.500 7.290 10.104 12.575 13.917 TERMINAL V.2.2 150 243 337 419 464 NEW TERM. V.2.3 160 240 389 539 671 742

Total Zone V.2 3.160 4.890 7.922 10.980 13.665 15.123

TERMINAL V.3.1 980 1.960 4.940 7.290 8.234 9.505 TERMINAL V.3.2 60 120 302 446 504 582

Total Zone V.3 1.040 2.080 5.242 7.736 8.738 10.087

REGION V 21.724 31.504 48.431 61.056 67.317 72.150

TERMINAL VI.1.1 6.000 7.800 12.636 17.096 18.580 20.337 TERMINAL VI.1.2 395 514 833 1.127 1.224 1.340 TERMINAL VI.1.3 800 1.040 1.685 2.279 2.477 2.712 TERMINAL VI.1.4 576 749 1.213 1.642 1.784 1.953 TERMINAL VI.1.5 384 499 808 1.094 1.189 1.301 TERMINAL VI.1.6 192 250 405 548 596 652 TERMINAL VI.1.7 974 1.266 2.051 2.775 3.016 3.301 TERMINAL VI.1.8 240 312 505 684 743 813 TERMINAL VI.1.9 768 998 1.617 2.187 2.377 2.602


70

TERMINAL

AREA


Lines 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 TERMINAL VI.1.10 0 130 211 285 310 339 TERMINAL VI.1.11 768 998 1.617 2.187 2.377 2.602 TERMINAL VI.1.12 160 208 337 456 495 542 TERMINAL VI.1.13 384 499 808 1.094 1.189 1.301 TERMINAL VI.1.14 384 499 808 1.094 1.189 1.301 TERMINAL VI.1.15 160 208 337 456 495 542

Total Zone VI.1 12.185 15.971 25.872 35.005 38.043 41.642

TERMINAL VI.2.1 3.000 3.750 5.850 8.634 9.384 10.033 TERMINAL VI.2.2 2.000 2.500 3.900 5.756 6.256 6.689 TERMINAL VI.2.3 800 1.000 1.560 2.302 2.502 2.675 TERMINAL VI.2.4 160 200 312 460 500 535 TERMINAL VI.2.5 160 200 312 460 500 535

Total Zone VI.2 6.120 7.650 11.934 17.614 19.143 20.467

TERMINAL VI.3.1 3.000 5.100 9.282 14.570 16.194 17.881

Total Zone VI.3 3.000 5.100 9.282 14.570 16.194 17.881

TERMINAL VI.4.1 1.912 3.250 7.736 12.370 13.443 14.835

Total Zone VI.4 1.912 3.250 7.736 12.370 13.443 14.835

REGION VI 23.217 31.971 54.824 79.559 86.823 94.825

TERMINAL VII.1.1 3.000 4.050 5.123 5.891 6.342 6.837 TERMINAL VII.1.2 550 743 940 1.081 1.164 1.254 TERMINAL VII.1.3 280 378 478 550 592 638 TERMINAL VII.1.4 320 432 546 628 677 729 TERMINAL VII.1.5 400 540 683 785 846 912 TERMINAL VII.1.6 2.000 2.700 3.415 3.927 4.228 4.558 NEW TERM. VII.1.7 81 102 118 127 137

Total Zone VII.1 6.550 8.924 11.288 12.981 13.975 15.066

TERMINAL VII.2.1 2.220 2.553 4.136 6.104 6.635 7.104 TERMINAL VII.2.2 180 207 335 495 538 576 TERMINAL VII.2.3 60 69 112 165 179 192 TERMINAL VII.2.4 60 69 112 165 179 192 TERMINAL VII.2.5 180 207 335 495 538 576

Total Zone VII.2 2.700 3.105 5.030 7.424 8.069 8.640

TERMINAL VII.3.1 600 900 1.580 2.487 3.010 3.297

Total Zone VII.3 600 900 1.580 2.487 3.010 3.297

TERMINAL VII.4.1 500 750 1.260 1.905 2.159 2.379

Total Zone VII.4 500 750 1.260 1.905 2.159 2.379

TERMINAL VII.5.1 1.000 1.500 2.430 3.013 3.339 3.725


71

TERMINAL

AREA


Lines 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

Total Zone VII.4 1.000 1.500 2.430 3.013 3.339 3.725

REGION VII 11.410 15.179 21.588 27.810 30.552 33.107

TERMINAL VIII.1.1 5.048 5.805 9.403 14.219 16.110 17.341 TERMINAL VIII.1.2 384 442 716 1.083 1.227 1.320 TERMINAL VIII.1.3 120 138 224 338 383 412 TERMINAL VIII.1.4 100 115 186 282 319 344 TERMINAL VIII.1.5 60 69 112 169 191 206

Total Zone VIII.1 5.712 6.569 10.641 16.090 18.230 19.623

TERMINAL VIII.2.1 3.010 3.913 6.340 8.576 9.502 10.222 TERMINAL VIII.2.2 60 78 126 171 189 204 TERMINAL VIII.2.3 20 26 42 57 63 68

Total Zone VIII.2 3.090 4.017 6.508 8.804 9.755 10.493

TERMINAL VIII.3.1 1.200 1.560 2.153 2.670 2.958 3.223 TERMINAL VIII.3.2 400 520 718 890 986 1.074 TERMINAL VIII.3.3 384 499 689 854 946 1.031

Total Zone VIII.3 1.984 2.579 3.559 4.414 4.891 5.328

TERMINAL VIII.4.1 3.000 3.750 5.625 6.977 7.729 8.528 TERMINAL VIII.4.2 120 150 225 279 309 341 TERMINAL VIII.4.3 180 225 338 419 464 512 TERMINAL VIII.4.4 60 75 113 140 155 171 TERMINAL VIII.4.5 0 125 188 233 258 284 TERMINAL VIII.4.6 140 175 263 326 361 398

Total Zone VII.4 3.500 4.500 6.750 8.372 9.275 10.234

TERMINAL VIII.5.1 900 1.170 2.129 3.219 3.822 4.278

Total Zone VIII.5 900 1.170 2.129 3.219 3.822 4.278

REGION VIII 15.186 18.835 29.587 40.899 45.973 49.957

TERMINAL IX.1.1 6.000 7.200 10.368 13.917 14.983 16.209

Total Zone IX.1 6.000 7.200 10.368 13.917 14.983 16.209

TERMINAL IX.2.1 1.680 1.848 2.661 4.023 4.776 5.163

Total Zone IX.2 1.680 1.848 2.661 4.023 4.776 5.163

TERMINAL IX.3.1 1.000 1.600 2.912 4.770 5.662 6.271

Total Zone IX.3 1.000 1.600 2.912 4.770 5.662 6.271

TERMINAL IX.4.1 500 550 792 1.071 1.244 1.391 TERMINAL IX.4.1 20 22 32 43 50 56 TERMINAL IX.4.1 60 66 95 129 149 167


72

TERMINAL

AREA


Lines 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 TERMINAL IX.4.1 200 220 317 428 497 556

Total Zone IX.4 780 858 1.236 1.671 1.940 2.170

TERMINAL IX.5.1 2.400 3.360 4.637 5.739 6.358 6.851

Total Zone IX.5 2.400 3.360 4.637 5.739 6.358 6.851

REGION IX 11.860 14.866 21.814 30.120 33.719 36.663

COUNTRY 276.381 408.715 592.735 750.214 834.660 887.403

Thus, with the application of combined methodologies of forecasting, we have

calculated the number of the estimated telephone subscribers on a twenty-year (from

1996 to 2016) long-term basis.

2.3 METHODOLOGY of TRAFFIC FORECASTING

2.3.1 List of Existing Local Exchanges

We assume that Table 2.1 lists the existing 224 Terminal exchanges for the year 1996,

the 42 Group exchanges, the 9 Zone exchanges and the 1 Transit exchange. The table

2.1 shows, among others, the following:

- The name of the existing Terminal exchange.

- The Group/Zone exchange to which this Terminal exchange is connected.

- The level of hierarchy.

In order to take advantage of the digital technology and to modernize the network, we

assume that in the new network Group exchanges and Zone exchanges will merge into

9 Regional ones. This will result to the simplification of the network’s hierarchical

levels.

2.3.2 Historical Traffic Data

The period after the end of the war is very short, therefore, there is a difficulty in

gathering data for the traffic calculation. A special difficulty for the traffic forecasting

is the new different geographical structure of the “Republic” compared to the previous

one as a part of the Former State of the “Republic”.

The basic traffic data, which are necessary for a study of a telecommunication

network, are:

- Future demand of subscriber lines for the study years 1996, 2001, 2005, 2011,

2016, these data result from Table 2.5.


73

- The calling rates (originating and terminating average traffic per subscriber) for

each of the existing terminal exchanges for the base study year 1996 (Reliable

data do not exist and certain measurements were conducted).

- Traffic data according to subscriber’s categories (Reliable data do not existed

and certain measurements were conducted).

- Traffic dispersion (Reliable data do not exist; some dispersion values have

been given for some Zone areas).

2.3.3 Technique of Traffic Forecasting

A basic parameter in "Traffic Forecasting" is the knowledge of the subscriber

forecasting (see par. 1.2.4.1.2) in each Terminal area, with a projection of at least 20

years, time period to which this study refers.

Another important parameter is the knowledge/estimation of the originating and

terminating traffic per subscriber (Erl/sub) for each particular Terminal area.

Finally, the determination of crucial parameters as the various Coefficients of Interest,

concerning communication among subscribers of the various geographical areas, as

well as those between the various hierarchical levels of the Network, is considered

very important.

The methodology described in the previous paragraphs (see par. 1.2.4) has been

applied for the estimation of the traffic. The necessary steps for the assessment of the

various types of traffic, in the network’s structure assumed in the modernised network

are the following:

- Estimation of originating and terminating traffic per subscriber.

- Forecasting of subscriber traffic per terminal exchange.

- Estimation of traffic distribution.

- Forecasting of internal and local traffic.

- Forecasting of long-distance traffic.

- Forecasting of international traffic.

The data taken into account (the completeness and reliability of which have been

discussed in the previous paragraphs) are the following:

a) Economic development of the Former State of the “Republic” per group

exchange area basis (Table 2.4).

b) Subscriber demand forecasting (Table 2.5).

c) Traffic distribution that resulted from measurements conducted in the exchanges

of the areas of Region I, Region II, Region III, Region IV and Region V and

were provided by the PTT of the “Republic” (see Table 2.8).

d) Relative to International Traffic concerning the areas of Region I, Region II and

Region III, (see Table 2.18),

e) Measured Traffic in exchanges of the area of Region I.


74

2.3.3.1 Originating/terminating Traffic per Subscriber

The traffic per subscriber (calling rate) in the busy hour varies from system to system,

depending mainly on the proportion of business/administrative lines relative to the

residential ones.

The results of the measurements in existing exchanges as well as some historical data

from other countries have been considered for the calculation of the originating and

terminating traffic per subscriber. The above traffic data depend on various factors

(exchange capacity, categories of subscribers, etc.). Finally, the “dilution” effect (see

par. 1.2.4) was taken into consideration.

Originating and terminating traffic per subscriber are shown in Table 2.6 for each

Terminal exchange area and for the years 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016.

Table 2.6

Originating and terminating traffic per subscriber

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA

ao (Erl/sb) At(Erl/sb) ao (Erl/sb) at(Erl/sb) ao (Erl/sb) at(Erl/sb) ao (Erl/sb) at(Erl/sb) ao (Erl/sb) at(Erl/sb)

REGION I (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k)

ZONE I.1

TERMINAL I.1.1-

CAPITAL 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.023 0.022 0.022

TERMINAL I.1.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.5 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.6 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.7 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.8 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.9 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.10 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.11 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.12 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.13 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.14 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.15 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.16 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.17 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.1.18 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.1.19 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.1.20 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.1.21 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.1.22 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.1.23 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.2

TERMINAL I.2.1 0.025 0.023 0.025 0.023 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02


75

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


TERMINAL I.2.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.2.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.2.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.2.5 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.3

TERMINAL I.3.1 0.035 0.032 0.035 0.032 0.032 0.029 0.028 0.024 0.028 0.024

TERMINAL I.3.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.3.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.3.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.4

TERMINAL I.4.1 0.025 0.023 0.025 0.023 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02

TERMINAL I.4.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.4.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.4.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.4.5 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.4.6 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.4.7 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.4.8 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.4.9 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.4.10 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.4.11 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.4.12 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.5

TERMINAL I.5.1 0.025 0.023 0.025 0.023 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02

TERMINAL I.5.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.5 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.6 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.7 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.8 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.9 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.10 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.11 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.12 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.13 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.14 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.5.15 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.5.16 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.5.17 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.6

TERMINAL I.6.1 0.025 0.023 0.025 0.023 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02

TERMINAL I.6.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.6.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.6.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.6.5 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018


76

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


NEW TERM. I.6.6 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.6.7 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.6.8 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.6.9 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.6.10 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.7

TERMINAL I.7.1 0.025 0.023 0.025 0.023 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02

TERMINAL I.7.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.7.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.7.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.7.5 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.7.6 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.7.7 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.8

TERMINAL I.8.1 0.025 0.023 0.025 0.023 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02

TERMINAL I.8.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.8.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.8.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.8.5 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.8.6 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.9

TERMINAL I.9.1 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.9.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.9.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.9.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.10

TERMINAL I.10.1 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.10.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.10.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.10.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.10.5 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL I.10.6 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.10.7 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.11

TERMINAL I.11.1 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.11.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.11.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.11.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.11.5 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.11.6 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE I.12

NEW TERM. I.12.1 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.12.2 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.12.3 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.12.4 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. I.12.5 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018


77

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


REGION II

ZONE II.1

TERMINAL II.1.1 0.028 0.023 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.021 0.021 0.02

TERMINAL II.1.2 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.3 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.4 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.5 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.6 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.7 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.8 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.9 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.10 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.11 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.12 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.13 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.14 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.15 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.16 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.1.17 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.1.18 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.1.19 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.1.20 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.1.21 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.1.22 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.1.23 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.1.24 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.1.25 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

ZONE II.2

TERMINAL II.2.1 0.028 0.023 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.021 0.021 0.02

TERMINAL II.2.2 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.2.3 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.2.4 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.2.5 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.2.6 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.2.7 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.2.8 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.2.9 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.2.10 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.2.11 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.2.12 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.2.13 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

ZONE II.3

TERMINAL II.3.1 0.028 0.023 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.021 0.021 0.02

TERMINAL II.3.2 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.3.3 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

TERMINAL II.3.4 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017


78

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


TERMINAL II.3.5 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.3.6 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.3.7 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.3.7 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

NEW TERM. II.3.8 0.022 0.02 0.021 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.019 0.018 0.018 0.017

REGION III

ZONE III.1

TERMINAL III.1.1 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.2 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.3 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.4 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.5 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.6 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.7 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.8 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.9 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.10 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.11 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.1.12 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM.

III.1.13 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.1.14 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.1.15 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.1.16 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.1.17 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.1.18 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.1.19 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.1.20 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.1.21 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

ZONE III.2

TERMINAL III.2.1 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.2.2 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.2.3 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.2.4 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.2.5 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.2.6 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.2.7 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.2.8 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

ZONE III.3

TERMINAL III.3.1 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.3.2 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.3.3 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.3.4 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.3.5 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.3.6 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.3.7 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

ZONE III.4


79

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


TERMINAL III.4.1 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.4.2 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.4.3 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.4.4 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.4.5 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

TERMINAL III.4.6 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

NEW TERM. III.4.7 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017 0.019 0.016 0.019 0.016

REGION IV

ZONE IV.1

TERMINAL IV.1.1 0.03 0.025 0.027 0.022 0.025 0.021 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02

TERMINAL IV.1.2 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.1.3 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.1.4 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.1.5 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.1.6 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.1.7 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.1.8 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.1.9 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.1.10 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. IV.1.11 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. IV.1.12 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. IV.1.13 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE IV.2

TERMINAL IV.2.1 0.03 0.025 0.027 0.022 0.025 0.021 0.022 0.02 0.022 0.02

TERMINAL IV.2.2 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.2.3 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.2.4 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL IV.2.5 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.021 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

REGION V

ZONE V.1

TERMINAL V.1.1 0.03 0.025 0.028 0.022 0.025 0.021 0.023 0.02 0.023 0.02

TERMINAL V.1.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.3 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.4 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.5 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.6 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.7 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.8 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.9 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.10 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.11 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.12 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.13 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.14 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.15 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.16 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017


80

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


TERMINAL V.1.17 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.1.18 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

ZONE V.2

TERMINAL V.2.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.2.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

NEW TERM. V.2.3 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

ZONE V.3

TERMINAL V.3.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

TERMINAL V.3.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.017 0.02 0.017

REGION VI

ZONE VI.1

TERMINAL VI.1.1 0.03 0.025 0.03 0.025 0.025 0.021 0.023 0.021 0.023 0.021

TERMINAL VI.1.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.3 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.4 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.5 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.6 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.7 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.8 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.9 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.10 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.11 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.12 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.13 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.14 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.1.15 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE VI.2

TERMINAL VI.2.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.2.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.2.3 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.2.4 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VI.2.5 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE VI.3

TERMINAL VI.3.1 0.03 0.025 0.03 0.025 0.025 0.021 0.023 0.021 0.023 0.021

ZONE VI.4

TERMINAL VI.4.1 0.03 0.025 0.03 0.025 0.025 0.021 0.023 0.021 0.023 0.021

REGION VII

ZONE VII.1

TERMINAL VII.1.1 0.03 0.025 0.03 0.025 0.028 0.023 0.025 0.022 0.025 0.022

TERMINAL VII.1.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VII.1.3 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VII.1.4 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VII.1.5 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VII.1.6 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

NEW TERM. VII.1.7 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE VII.2


81

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


TERMINAL VII.2.1 0.03 0.025 0.03 0.025 0.028 0.023 0.025 0.022 0.025 0.022

TERMINAL VII.2.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VII.2.3 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VII.2.4 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

TERMINAL VII.2.5 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE VII.3

TERMINAL VII.3.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE VII.4

TERMINAL VII.4.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.019 0.02 0.018 0.02 0.018

ZONE VII.5

TERMINAL VII.5.1 0.03 0.025 0.03 0.025 0.028 0.023 0.025 0.022 0.025 0.022

REGION VIII

ZONE VIII.1

TERMINAL VIII.1.1 0.03 0.025 0.03 0.025 0.028 0.022 0.024 0.02 0.024 0.02

TERMINAL VIII.1.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.1.3 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.1.4 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.1.5 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

ZONE VIII.2

TERMINAL VIII.2.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.2.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.2.3 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

ZONE VIII.3

TERMINAL VIII.3.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.3.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.3.3 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

ZONE VIII.4

TERMINAL VIII.4.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.4.2 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.4.3 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.4.4 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.4.5 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL VIII.4.6 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

ZONE VIII.5

TERMINAL VIII.5.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.023 0.019 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

REGION IX

ZONE IX.1

TERMINAL IX.1.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

ZONE IX.2

TERMINAL IX.2.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

ZONE IX.3

TERMINAL IX.3.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

ZONE IX.4

TERMINAL IX.4.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL IX.4.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

TERMINAL IX.4.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018


82

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


TERMINAL IX.4.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

ZONE IX.5

TERMINAL IX.5.1 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.025 0.02 0.022 0.018 0.022 0.018

2.3.3.2 Forecasting of Subscriber Traffic per Terminal Exchange

The subscriber traffic (originating and terminating) per Terminal exchange can be

obtained (see par. 1.2.4.1.3) by multiplying the calling rate (given in Table 2.6) by the

corresponding number forecasted subscribers (given in Table 2.5). The results for the

originating and terminating traffic per Terminal exchange are depicted in Table 2.7

for the period 1996 to 2016.

Table 2.7 Originating and terminating traffic

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA

ao (Erl/sb) at(Erl/sb) ao (Erl/sb) at(Erl/sb) ao (Erl/sb) at(Erl/sb) ao (Erl/sb) at(Erl/sb) ao (Erl/sb) at(Erl/sb)

REGION I (b) (c) (d) (e) (f) (g) (h) (i) (j) (k)

ZONE I.1

TERMINAL I.1.1-

CAPITAL 1959.52 1959.52 2680.62 2680.62 2418.90 2418.90 2825.82 2825.82 2801.76 2801.76

TERMINAL I.1.2 28.60 26.00 39.12 35.57 41.86 37.68 48.91 44.02 50.69 45.62

TERMINAL I.1.3 14.30 13.00 19.56 17.78 20.93 18.84 24.45 22.01 25.35 22.81

TERMINAL I.1.4 57.20 52.00 78.25 71.14 83.73 75.35 97.81 88.03 101.39 91.25

TERMINAL I.1.5 27.46 24.96 37.56 34.15 40.19 36.17 46.95 42.25 48.67 43.80

TERMINAL I.1.6 21.96 19.97 30.05 27.32 32.15 28.94 37.56 33.80 38.93 35.04

TERMINAL I.1.7 6.86 6.24 9.39 8.54 10.05 9.04 11.74 10.56 12.17 10.95

TERMINAL I.1.8 10.98 9.98 15.02 13.66 16.08 14.47 18.78 16.90 19.47 17.52

TERMINAL I.1.9 5.15 4.68 7.04 6.40 7.54 6.78 8.80 7.92 9.12 8.21

TERMINAL I.1.10 10.98 9.98 15.02 13.66 16.08 14.47 18.78 16.90 19.47 17.52

TERMINAL I.1.11 10.98 9.98 15.02 13.66 16.08 14.47 18.78 16.90 19.47 17.52

TERMINAL I.1.12 21.96 19.97 30.05 27.32 32.15 28.94 37.56 33.80 38.93 35.04

TERMINAL I.1.13 6.86 6.24 9.39 8.54 10.05 9.04 11.74 10.56 12.17 10.95

TERMINAL I.1.14 5.49 4.99 7.51 6.83 8.04 7.23 9.39 8.45 9.73 8.76

TERMINAL I.1.15 10.30 9.36 14.08 12.80 15.07 13.56 17.61 15.85 18.25 16.42

TERMINAL I.1.16 6.12 5.56 8.37 7.61 8.96 8.06 10.47 9.42 10.85 9.76

TERMINAL I.1.17 7.32 6.66 10.02 9.11 10.72 9.65 12.52 11.27 12.98 11.68

TERMINAL I.1.18 7.32 6.66 10.02 9.11 10.72 9.65 12.52 11.27 12.98 11.68

NEW TERM. I.1.19 2.86 2.60 3.91 3.56 4.19 3.77 4.89 4.40 5.07 4.56

NEW TERM. I.1.20 8.58 7.80 11.74 10.67 12.56 11.30 14.67 13.20 15.21 13.69

NEW TERM. I.1.21 8.58 7.80 11.74 10.67 12.56 11.30 14.67 13.20 15.21 13.69

NEW TERM. I.1.22 2.86 2.60 3.91 3.56 4.19 3.77 4.89 4.40 5.07 4.56


83

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


NEW TERM. I.1.23 8.58 7.80 11.74 10.67 12.56 11.30 14.67 13.20 15.21 13.69

ZONE I.1 2250.82 2224.35 3079.13 3042.95 2845.36 2802.68 3323.98 3274.13 3318.15 3266.48

ZONE I.2

TERMINAL I.2.1 76.00 69.92 104.50 96.14 105.28 95.71 115.01 104.55 120.79 109.81

TERMINAL I.2.2 10.03 9.12 13.79 12.54 14.36 12.92 15.68 14.11 16.47 14.82

NEW TERM. I.2.3 12.54 11.40 17.24 15.68 17.94 16.15 19.60 17.64 20.59 18.53

NEW TERM. I.2.4 29.26 26.60 40.23 36.58 41.87 37.68 45.74 41.17 48.04 43.24

NEW TERM. I.2.5 4.18 3.80 5.75 5.23 5.98 5.38 6.53 5.88 6.86 6.18

ZONE I.2 132.01 120.84 181.51 166.17 185.43 167.84 202.56 183.35 212.75 192.58

ZONE I.3

TERMINAL I.3.1 133.00 121.60 189.90 173.62 223.62 202.66 246.40 211.20 260.97 223.69

TERMINAL I.3.2 40.13 36.48 57.29 52.09 67.09 60.38 84.48 76.03 89.47 80.53

NEW TERM. I.3.3 10.03 9.12 14.32 13.02 16.77 15.09 21.12 19.01 22.37 20.13

NEW TERM. I.3.4 16.72 15.20 23.87 21.70 27.95 25.16 35.20 31.68 37.28 33.55

ZONE I.3 199.88 182.40 285.38 260.43 335.43 303.29 387.20 337.92 410.09 357.90

ZONE I.4

TERMINAL I.4.1 231.54 213.02 318.37 292.90 320.73 291.57 360.75 327.95 378.10 343.73

TERMINAL I.4.2 19.15 17.41 26.33 23.94 27.40 24.66 30.82 27.74 32.30 29.07

TERMINAL I.4.3 4.79 4.35 6.58 5.98 6.85 6.17 7.71 6.93 8.08 7.27

TERMINAL I.4.4 9.57 8.70 13.16 11.97 13.70 12.33 15.41 13.87 16.15 14.54

TERMINAL I.4.5 38.30 34.82 52.66 47.87 54.80 49.32 61.64 55.48 64.61 58.15

TERMINAL I.4.6 6.73 6.12 9.26 8.42 9.63 8.67 10.84 9.75 11.36 10.22

TERMINAL I.4.7 28.72 26.11 39.49 35.90 41.10 36.99 46.23 41.61 48.45 43.61

TERMINAL I.4.8 14.36 13.06 19.75 17.95 20.55 18.50 23.12 20.80 24.23 21.80

TERMINAL I.4.9 14.36 13.06 19.75 17.95 20.55 18.50 23.12 20.80 24.23 21.80

NEW TERM. I.4.10 11.22 10.20 15.43 14.03 16.06 14.45 18.06 16.25 18.93 17.03

NEW TERM. I.4.11 14.96 13.60 20.57 18.70 21.41 19.27 24.08 21.67 25.24 22.71

NEW TERM. I.4.12 5.61 5.10 7.71 7.01 8.03 7.23 9.03 8.13 9.46 8.52

ZONE I.4 399.31 365.55 549.06 502.62 560.81 507.66 630.81 570.98 661.14 598.45

ZONE I.5

TERMINAL I.5.1 137.70 126.68 190.03 174.82 196.82 178.93 221.38 201.25 230.44 209.49

TERMINAL I.5.2 7.06 6.42 9.75 8.86 10.43 9.38 11.73 10.56 12.21 10.99

TERMINAL I.5.3 7.06 6.42 9.75 8.86 10.43 9.38 11.73 10.56 12.21 10.99

TERMINAL I.5.4 7.06 6.42 9.75 8.86 10.43 9.38 11.73 10.56 12.21 10.99

TERMINAL I.5.5 13.86 12.60 19.13 17.39 20.47 18.42 23.02 20.72 23.96 21.57

TERMINAL I.5.6 22.18 20.16 30.60 27.82 32.75 29.47 36.83 33.15 38.34 34.50

TERMINAL I.5.7 7.06 6.42 9.75 8.86 10.43 9.38 11.73 10.56 12.21 10.99

TERMINAL I.5.8 29.70 27.00 40.99 37.26 43.86 39.47 49.33 44.39 51.35 46.21

TERMINAL I.5.9 11.88 10.80 16.39 14.90 17.54 15.79 19.73 17.76 20.54 18.48

TERMINAL I.5.10 9.90 9.00 13.66 12.42 14.62 13.16 16.44 14.80 17.12 15.40

TERMINAL I.5.11 7.06 6.42 9.75 8.86 10.43 9.38 11.73 10.56 12.21 10.99

TERMINAL I.5.12 1.98 1.80 2.73 2.48 2.92 2.63 3.29 2.96 3.42 3.08

TERMINAL I.5.13 7.06 6.42 9.75 8.86 10.43 9.38 11.73 10.56 12.21 10.99

TERMINAL I.5.14 7.06 6.42 9.75 8.86 10.43 9.38 11.73 10.56 12.21 10.99

TERMINAL I.5.15 1.98 1.80 2.73 2.48 2.92 2.63 3.29 2.96 3.42 3.08

NEW TERM. I.5.16 7.92 7.20 10.93 9.94 11.69 10.53 13.15 11.84 13.69 12.32


84

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


NEW TERM. I.5.17 4.95 4.50 6.83 6.21 7.31 6.58 8.22 7.40 8.56 7.70

ZONE I.5 291.47 266.48 402.27 367.74 423.91 383.27 476.79 431.15 496.31 448.76

ZONE I.6

TERMINAL I.6.1 225.00 207.00 323.44 297.56 350.66 318.78 433.24 393.86 459.62 417.84

TERMINAL I.6.2 13.99 12.72 20.11 18.29 22.53 20.27 27.83 25.05 29.53 26.57

TERMINAL I.6.3 15.84 14.40 22.77 20.70 25.50 22.95 31.51 28.36 33.43 30.08

TERMINAL I.6.4 5.02 4.56 7.21 6.56 8.08 7.27 9.98 8.98 10.59 9.53

NEW TERM. I.6.5 11.55 10.50 16.60 15.09 18.60 16.74 22.98 20.68 24.37 21.94

NEW TERM. I.6.6 11.55 10.50 16.60 15.09 18.60 16.74 22.98 20.68 24.37 21.94

NEW TERM. I.6.7 11.55 10.50 16.60 15.09 18.60 16.74 22.98 20.68 24.37 21.94

NEW TERM. I.6.8 12.67 11.52 18.22 16.56 20.40 18.36 25.21 22.69 26.74 24.07

NEW TERM. I.6.9 12.67 11.52 18.22 16.56 20.40 18.36 25.21 22.69 26.74 24.07

NEW TERM. I.6.10 6.60 6.00 9.49 8.63 10.63 9.56 13.13 11.82 13.93 12.54

ZONE I.6 326.44 299.22 469.26 430.13 514.00 465.77 635.05 575.49 673.69 610.52

ZONE I.7

TERMINAL I.7.1 142.50 131.10 195.94 180.26 197.39 179.45 215.64 196.03 226.20 205.64

TERMINAL I.7.2 16.05 14.59 22.07 20.06 22.97 20.67 25.09 22.58 26.32 23.69

TERMINAL I.7.3 8.36 7.60 11.50 10.45 11.96 10.77 13.07 11.76 13.71 12.34

TERMINAL I.7.4 10.03 9.12 13.79 12.54 14.36 12.92 15.68 14.11 16.45 14.81

TERMINAL I.7.5 1.67 1.52 2.30 2.09 2.39 2.15 2.61 2.35 2.74 2.47

NEW TERM. I.7.6 10.03 9.12 13.79 12.54 14.36 12.92 15.68 14.11 16.45 14.81

NEW TERM. I.7.7 8.36 7.60 11.50 10.45 11.96 10.77 13.07 11.76 13.71 12.34

ZONE I.7 197.00 180.65 270.89 248.39 275.39 249.65 300.84 272.70 315.58 286.10

ZONE I.8

TERMINAL I.8.1 64.00 58.88 94.40 86.85 106.04 96.40 127.47 115.88 138.50 125.91

TERMINAL I.8.2 20.28 18.43 29.91 27.19 34.70 31.23 41.72 37.54 45.33 40.79

TERMINAL I.8.3 20.28 18.43 29.91 27.19 34.70 31.23 41.72 37.54 45.33 40.79

TERMINAL I.8.4 20.28 18.43 29.91 27.19 34.70 31.23 41.72 37.54 45.33 40.79

TERMINAL I.8.5 8.45 7.68 12.46 11.33 14.46 13.01 17.38 15.64 18.89 17.00

TERMINAL I.8.6 6.34 5.76 9.35 8.50 10.85 9.76 13.04 11.73 14.16 12.75

ZONE I.8 139.63 127.61 205.94 188.25 235.45 212.86 283.05 255.87 307.54 278.03

ZONE I.9

TERMINAL I.9.1 52.80 48.00 82.37 74.88 94.72 85.25 105.39 94.85 108.62 97.76

NEW TERM. I.9.2 11.00 10.00 17.16 15.60 19.73 17.76 21.96 19.76 22.63 20.37

NEW TERM. I.9.3 11.00 10.00 17.16 15.60 19.73 17.76 21.96 19.76 22.63 20.37

NEW TERM. I.9.4 11.00 10.00 17.16 15.60 19.73 17.76 21.96 19.76 22.63 20.37

ZONE I.9 85.80 78.00 133.85 121.68 153.91 138.53 171.27 154.13 176.51 158.87

ZONE I.10

TERMINAL I.10.1 40.04 36.40 48.35 43.95 47.08 42.37 49.96 44.96 53.01 47.71

TERMINAL I.10.2 4.93 4.48 5.95 5.41 5.79 5.22 6.15 5.53 6.52 5.87

TERMINAL I.10.3 4.93 4.48 5.95 5.41 5.79 5.22 6.15 5.53 6.52 5.87

TERMINAL I.10.4 17.74 16.13 21.42 19.47 20.86 18.78 22.14 19.92 23.49 21.14

TERMINAL I.10.5 5.91 5.38 7.14 6.49 6.95 6.26 7.38 6.64 7.83 7.05

TERMINAL I.10.6 5.91 5.38 7.14 6.49 6.95 6.26 7.38 6.64 7.83 7.05

NEW TERM. I.10.7 6.16 5.60 7.44 6.76 7.24 6.52 7.69 6.92 8.15 7.34

ZONE I.10 85.62 77.85 103.39 93.98 100.66 90.63 106.85 96.14 113.35 102.03


85

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


ZONE I.11

TERMINAL I.11.1 105.60 96.00 138.60 126.00 134.97 121.47 143.22 128.90 152.45 137.20

NEW TERM. I.11.2 7.04 6.40 9.24 8.40 9.00 8.10 9.55 8.59 10.16 9.15

NEW TERM. I.11.3 5.63 5.12 7.39 6.72 7.20 6.48 7.64 6.87 8.13 7.32

NEW TERM. I.11.4 3.52 3.20 4.62 4.20 4.50 4.05 4.77 4.30 5.08 4.57

NEW TERM. I.11.5 3.52 3.20 4.62 4.20 4.50 4.05 4.77 4.30 5.08 4.57

NEW TERM. I.11.6 3.52 3.20 4.62 4.20 4.50 4.05 4.77 4.30 5.08 4.57

ZONE I.11 128.83 117.12 169.09 153.72 164.67 148.20 174.72 157.26 185.98 167.38

ZONE I.12

NEW TERM. I.12.1 15.84 14.40 23.68 21.53 26.05 23.44 31.02 27.92 35.72 32.15

NEW TERM. I.12.2 15.84 14.40 23.68 21.53 26.05 23.44 31.02 27.92 35.72 32.15

NEW TERM. I.12.3 6.60 6.00 9.87 8.97 10.85 9.77 12.93 11.63 14.88 13.40

NEW TERM. I.12.4 11.88 10.80 17.76 16.15 19.54 17.58 23.27 20.94 26.79 24.11

NEW TERM. I.12.5 6.60 6.00 9.87 8.97 10.85 9.77 12.93 11.63 14.88 13.40

ZONE I.12 56.76 51.60 84.86 77.15 93.34 84.00 111.17 100.04 127.99 115.21

REGION I 4293.57 4091.67 5934.63 5653.21 5888.36 5554.38 6804.29 6409.16 6999.08 6582.31

REGION II

ZONE II.1

TERMINAL II.1.1 506.84 416.34 696.46 557.17 707.88 643.53 788.61 752.77 793.94 756.13

TERMINAL II.1.2 28.72 26.11 42.20 36.17 44.09 41.77 49.12 46.54 49.08 46.36

TERMINAL II.1.3 28.72 26.11 42.20 36.17 44.09 41.77 49.12 46.54 49.08 46.36

TERMINAL II.1.4 14.36 13.06 21.10 18.08 22.05 20.89 24.56 23.27 24.54 23.18

TERMINAL II.1.5 14.36 13.06 21.10 18.08 22.05 20.89 24.56 23.27 24.54 23.18

TERMINAL II.1.6 17.95 16.32 26.37 22.60 27.56 26.11 30.70 29.09 30.68 28.97

TERMINAL II.1.7 8.00 7.28 11.76 10.08 12.29 11.64 13.69 12.97 13.68 12.92

TERMINAL II.1.8 8.00 7.28 11.76 10.08 12.29 11.64 13.69 12.97 13.68 12.92

TERMINAL II.1.9 8.00 7.28 11.76 10.08 12.29 11.64 13.69 12.97 13.68 12.92

TERMINAL II.1.10 29.92 27.20 43.95 37.67 45.93 43.51 51.17 48.48 51.13 48.29

TERMINAL II.1.11 6.73 6.12 9.89 8.48 10.33 9.79 11.51 10.91 11.50 10.86

TERMINAL II.1.12 6.73 6.12 9.89 8.48 10.33 9.79 11.51 10.91 11.50 10.86

TERMINAL II.1.13 6.73 6.12 9.89 8.48 10.33 9.79 11.51 10.91 11.50 10.86

TERMINAL II.1.14 6.73 6.12 9.89 8.48 10.33 9.79 11.51 10.91 11.50 10.86

TERMINAL II.1.15 8.00 7.28 11.76 10.08 12.29 11.64 13.69 12.97 13.68 12.92

TERMINAL II.1.16 8.00 7.28 11.76 10.08 12.29 11.64 13.69 12.97 13.68 12.92

TERMINAL II.1.17 4.49 4.08 6.59 5.65 6.89 6.53 7.68 7.27 7.67 7.24

NEW TERM. II.1.18 3.74 3.40 5.49 4.71 5.74 5.44 6.40 6.06 6.39 6.04

NEW TERM. II.1.19 3.74 3.40 5.49 4.71 5.74 5.44 6.40 6.06 6.39 6.04

NEW TERM. II.1.20 3.74 3.40 5.49 4.71 5.74 5.44 6.40 6.06 6.39 6.04

NEW TERM. II.1.21 59.84 54.40 87.91 75.35 91.86 87.03 102.34 96.95 102.26 96.58

NEW TERM. II.1.22 6.73 6.12 9.89 8.48 10.33 9.79 11.51 10.91 11.50 10.86

NEW TERM. II.1.23 3.74 3.40 5.49 4.71 5.74 5.44 6.40 6.06 6.39 6.04

NEW TERM. II.1.24 3.74 3.40 5.49 4.71 5.74 5.44 6.40 6.06 6.39 6.04

NEW TERM. II.1.25 3.74 3.40 5.49 4.71 5.74 5.44 6.40 6.06 6.39 6.04

ZONE II.1 801.29 684.08 1129.07 928.00 1159.94 1071.82 1292.26 1229.94 1297.16 1231.43

ZONE II.2

TERMINAL II.2.1 153.62 126.19 203.68 162.95 207.02 188.20 230.63 220.15 233.00 221.90


86

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


TERMINAL II.2.2 2.38 2.16 3.37 2.89 3.52 3.33 3.92 3.71 3.93 3.71

TERMINAL II.2.3 9.50 8.64 13.47 11.55 14.08 13.34 15.68 14.86 15.73 14.85

TERMINAL II.2.4 7.13 6.48 10.10 8.66 10.56 10.00 11.76 11.14 11.79 11.14

TERMINAL II.2.5 7.13 6.48 10.10 8.66 10.56 10.00 11.76 11.14 11.79 11.14

TERMINAL II.2.6 10.69 9.72 15.16 12.99 15.84 15.00 17.64 16.72 17.69 16.71

TERMINAL II.2.7 23.76 21.60 33.68 28.87 35.20 33.34 39.21 37.15 39.31 37.13

NEW TERM. II.2.8 7.13 6.48 10.10 8.66 10.56 10.00 11.76 11.14 11.79 11.14

NEW TERM. II.2.9 7.13 6.48 10.10 8.66 10.56 10.00 11.76 11.14 11.79 11.14

NEW TERM. II.2.10 6.34 5.76 8.98 7.70 9.39 8.89 10.46 9.91 10.48 9.90

NEW TERM. II.2.11 2.38 2.16 3.37 2.89 3.52 3.33 3.92 3.71 3.93 3.71

NEW TERM. II.2.12 7.13 6.48 10.10 8.66 10.56 10.00 11.76 11.14 11.79 11.14

NEW TERM. II.2.13 3.96 3.60 5.61 4.81 5.87 5.56 6.53 6.19 6.55 6.19

ZONE II.2 248.28 212.23 337.82 277.95 347.24 320.99 386.79 368.10 389.57 369.8

ZONE II.3

TERMINAL II.3.1 136.42 112.06 167.48 133.98 175.09 159.17 200.68 191.56 203.15 193.48

TERMINAL II.3.2 25.34 23.04 33.26 28.51 35.75 33.87 40.98 38.82 41.17 38.89

TERMINAL II.3.3 9.90 9.00 12.99 11.14 13.97 13.23 16.01 15.17 16.08 15.19

TERMINAL II.3.4 14.85 13.50 19.49 16.71 20.95 19.85 24.01 22.75 24.13 22.79

TERMINAL II.3.5 5.94 5.40 7.80 6.68 8.38 7.94 9.60 9.10 9.65 9.11

NEW TERM. II.3.6 3.30 3.00 4.33 3.71 4.66 4.41 5.34 5.06 5.36 5.06

NEW TERM. II.3.7 3.30 3.00 4.33 3.71 4.66 4.41 5.34 5.06 5.36 5.06

NEW TERM. II.3.7 3.30 3.00 4.33 3.71 4.66 4.41 5.34 5.06 5.36 5.06

NEW TERM. II.3.8 3.30 3.00 4.33 3.71 4.66 4.41 5.34 5.06 5.36 5.06

ZONE II.3 205.65 175.00 258.34 211.86 272.78 251.70 312.64 297.64 315.62 299.7

REGION II 1255.22 1071.31 1725.23 1417.81 1779.96 1644.51 1991.69 1895.68 2002.35 1900.93

REGION III

ZONE III.1

TERMINAL III.1.1 299.04 254.18 394.73 335.52 455.92 387.53 482.52 406.33 514.44 433.21

TERMINAL III.1.2 13.72 11.66 18.11 15.39 20.92 17.78 22.14 18.64 23.60 19.88

TERMINAL III.1.3 6.72 5.71 8.87 7.54 10.25 8.71 10.84 9.13 11.56 9.74

TERMINAL III.1.4 21.50 18.28 28.39 24.13 32.78 27.87 34.70 29.22 36.99 31.15

TERMINAL III.1.5 32.26 27.42 42.58 36.19 49.18 41.80 52.05 43.83 55.49 46.73

TERMINAL III.1.6 2.80 2.38 3.70 3.14 4.27 3.63 4.52 3.80 4.82 4.06

TERMINAL III.1.7 10.75 9.14 14.19 12.06 16.39 13.93 17.35 14.61 18.50 15.58

TERMINAL III.1.8 16.13 13.71 21.29 18.10 24.59 20.90 26.02 21.91 27.74 23.36

TERMINAL III.1.9 16.13 13.71 21.29 18.10 24.59 20.90 26.02 21.91 27.74 23.36

TERMINAL III.1.10 16.13 13.71 21.29 18.10 24.59 20.90 26.02 21.91 27.74 23.36

TERMINAL III.1.11 16.13 13.71 21.29 18.10 24.59 20.90 26.02 21.91 27.74 23.36

TERMINAL III.1.12 16.13 13.71 21.29 18.10 24.59 20.90 26.02 21.91 27.74 23.36

NEW TERM. III.1.13 26.88 22.85 35.48 30.16 40.98 34.83 43.37 36.52 46.24 38.94

NEW TERM. III.1.14 16.13 13.71 21.29 18.10 24.59 20.90 26.02 21.91 27.74 23.36

NEW TERM. III.1.15 13.44 11.42 17.74 15.08 20.49 17.42 21.69 18.26 23.12 19.47

NEW TERM. III.1.16 14.00 11.90 18.48 15.71 21.34 18.14 22.59 19.02 24.08 20.28

NEW TERM. III.1.17 3.36 2.86 4.44 3.77 5.12 4.35 5.42 4.57 5.78 4.87

NEW TERM. III.1.18 10.75 9.14 14.19 12.06 16.39 13.93 17.35 14.61 18.50 15.58

NEW TERM. III.1.19 10.75 9.14 14.19 12.06 16.39 13.93 17.35 14.61 18.50 15.58


87

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


NEW TERM. III.1.20 5.04 4.28 6.65 5.65 7.68 6.53 8.13 6.85 8.67 7.30

NEW TERM. III.1.21 16.13 13.71 21.29 18.10 24.59 20.90 26.02 21.91 27.74 23.36

ZONE III.1 583.92 496.33 770.77 655.16 890.23 756.68 942.16 793.37 1004.47 845.89

ZONE III.2

TERMINAL III.2.1 140.00 119.00 204.96 174.22 270.55 229.97 311.70 262.48 336.85 283.66

TERMINAL III.2.2 10.75 9.14 15.74 13.38 20.78 17.66 23.94 20.16 25.87 21.79

TERMINAL III.2.3 28.00 23.80 40.99 34.84 54.11 45.99 62.34 52.50 67.37 56.73

TERMINAL III.2.4 16.13 13.71 23.61 20.07 31.17 26.49 35.91 30.24 38.81 32.68

NEW TERM. III.2.5 3.36 2.86 4.92 4.18 6.49 5.52 7.48 6.30 8.08 6.81

NEW TERM. III.2.6 5.04 4.28 7.38 6.27 9.74 8.28 11.22 9.45 12.13 10.21

NEW TERM. III.2.7 5.04 4.28 7.38 6.27 9.74 8.28 11.22 9.45 12.13 10.21

NEW TERM. III.2.8 5.38 4.57 7.87 6.69 10.39 8.83 11.97 10.08 12.94 10.89

ZONE III.2 213.7 181.64 312.85 265.92 412.97 351.02 475.78 400.66 514.18 432.98

ZONE III.3

TERMINAL III.3.1 140.00 119.00 193.20 164.22 223.15 189.67 245.40 206.66 261.19 219.95

NEW TERM. III.3.2 5.04 4.28 6.96 5.91 8.03 6.83 8.83 7.44 9.40 7.92

NEW TERM. III.3.3 5.04 4.28 6.96 5.91 8.03 6.83 8.83 7.44 9.40 7.92

NEW TERM. III.3.4 5.04 4.28 6.96 5.91 8.03 6.83 8.83 7.44 9.40 7.92

NEW TERM. III.3.5 1.12 0.95 1.55 1.31 1.79 1.52 1.96 1.65 2.09 1.76

NEW TERM. III.3.6 10.75 9.14 14.84 12.61 17.14 14.57 18.85 15.87 20.06 16.89

NEW TERM. III.3.7 3.36 2.86 4.64 3.94 5.36 4.55 5.89 4.96 6.27 5.28

ZONE III.3 170.35 144.79 235.11 199.81 271.53 230.80 298.59 251.46 317.81 267.64

ZONE III.4

TERMINAL III.4.1 120.40 102.34 164.51 139.84 195.44 166.13 212.81 179.21 224.97 189.45

TERMINAL III.4.2 11.20 9.52 15.30 13.01 18.18 15.45 19.80 16.67 20.93 17.62

TERMINAL III.4.3 5.04 4.28 6.89 5.85 8.18 6.95 8.91 7.50 9.42 7.93

TERMINAL III.4.4 7.17 6.09 9.79 8.33 11.64 9.89 12.67 10.67 13.39 11.28

TERMINAL III.4.5 10.08 8.57 13.77 11.71 16.36 13.91 17.82 15.00 18.83 15.86

TERMINAL III.4.6 10.08 8.57 13.77 11.71 16.36 13.91 17.82 15.00 18.83 15.86

NEW TERM. III.4.7 2.80 2.38 3.83 3.25 4.55 3.86 4.95 4.17 5.23 4.41

ZONE III.4 166.77 141.75 227.86 193.7 270.71 230.1 294.78 248.22 311.60 262.41

REGION III 1134.74 964.51 1546.59 1314.59 1845.44 1568.60 2011.31 1693.71 2148.06 1808.92

REGION IV

ZONE IV.1

TERMINAL IV.1.1 411.26 342.72 541.88 441.53 662.30 556.33 706.82 642.56 721.44 655.85

TERMINAL IV.1.2 3.50 2.80 4.51 3.89 5.68 5.14 6.56 5.91 6.70 6.03

TERMINAL IV.1.3 8.96 7.17 11.54 9.97 14.54 13.16 16.80 15.12 17.15 15.43

TERMINAL IV.1.4 20.16 16.13 25.97 22.43 32.73 29.61 37.80 34.02 38.58 34.72

TERMINAL IV.1.5 3.50 2.80 4.51 3.89 5.68 5.14 6.56 5.91 6.70 6.03

TERMINAL IV.1.6 6.72 5.38 8.66 7.48 10.91 9.87 12.60 11.34 12.86 11.57

TERMINAL IV.1.7 15.40 12.32 19.84 17.13 25.00 22.62 28.87 25.99 29.47 26.52

TERMINAL IV.1.8 6.72 5.38 8.66 7.48 10.91 9.87 12.60 11.34 12.86 11.57

TERMINAL IV.1.9 6.30 5.04 8.12 7.01 10.23 9.25 11.81 10.63 12.06 10.85

TERMINAL IV.1.10 28.00 22.40 36.07 31.15 45.45 41.12 52.50 47.25 53.58 48.22

NEW TERM. IV.1.11 3.50 2.80 4.51 3.89 5.68 5.14 6.56 5.91 6.70 6.03

NEW TERM. IV.1.12 3.50 2.80 4.51 3.89 5.68 5.14 6.56 5.91 6.70 6.03


88

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


NEW TERM. IV.1.13 3.50 2.80 4.51 3.89 5.68 5.14 6.56 5.91 6.70 6.03

ZONE IV.1 521.02 430.54 683.29 563.63 840.47 717.53 912.60 827.80 931.50 844.88

ZONE IV.2

TERMINAL IV.2.1 100.80 84.00 130.41 106.26 142.12 119.38 135.33 123.02 143.08 130.08

TERMINAL IV.2.2 40.32 32.26 51.00 44.05 57.30 51.85 59.05 53.15 62.44 56.19

TERMINAL IV.2.3 23.94 19.15 30.28 26.15 34.02 30.78 35.06 31.56 37.07 33.36

TERMINAL IV.2.4 26.88 21.50 34.00 29.37 38.20 34.56 39.37 35.43 41.62 37.46

TERMINAL IV.2.5 21.00 16.80 26.57 22.94 29.85 27.00 30.76 27.68 32.52 29.27

ZONE IV.2 212.94 173.71 272.26 228.77 301.49 263.57 299.57 270.84 316.73 286.36

REGION IV 733.96 604.25 955.55 792.4 1141.96 981.1 1212.17 1098.64 1248.23 1131.24

REGION V

ZONE V.1

TERMINAL V.1.1 424.03 353.36 568.91 447.00 597.86 502.20 595.15 517.52 622.04 540.90

TERMINAL V.1.2 8.96 7.17 12.88 10.30 13.34 11.52 13.12 11.15 13.72 11.66

TERMINAL V.1.3 13.44 10.75 19.32 15.46 20.01 17.28 19.68 16.73 20.57 17.49

TERMINAL V.1.4 8.96 7.17 12.88 10.30 13.34 11.52 13.12 11.15 13.72 11.66

TERMINAL V.1.5 17.92 14.34 25.76 20.61 26.68 23.04 26.24 22.31 27.43 23.32

TERMINAL V.1.6 8.96 7.17 12.88 10.30 13.34 11.52 13.12 11.15 13.72 11.66

TERMINAL V.1.7 13.44 10.75 19.32 15.46 20.01 17.28 19.68 16.73 20.57 17.49

TERMINAL V.1.8 13.44 10.75 19.32 15.46 20.01 17.28 19.68 16.73 20.57 17.49

TERMINAL V.1.9 22.40 17.92 32.20 25.76 33.35 28.80 32.81 27.89 34.29 29.15

TERMINAL V.1.10 35.00 28.00 50.31 40.25 52.11 45.01 51.26 43.57 53.58 45.54

TERMINAL V.1.11 31.36 25.09 45.08 36.06 46.69 40.32 45.93 39.04 48.00 40.80

TERMINAL V.1.12 17.64 14.11 25.36 20.29 26.26 22.68 25.83 21.96 27.00 22.95

TERMINAL V.1.13 12.46 9.97 17.91 14.33 18.55 16.02 18.25 15.51 19.07 16.21

TERMINAL V.1.14 8.96 7.17 12.88 10.30 13.34 11.52 13.12 11.15 13.72 11.66

TERMINAL V.1.15 17.92 14.34 25.76 20.61 26.68 23.04 26.24 22.31 27.43 23.32

TERMINAL V.1.16 8.96 7.17 12.88 10.30 13.34 11.52 13.12 11.15 13.72 11.66

TERMINAL V.1.17 11.20 8.96 16.10 12.88 16.68 14.40 16.40 13.94 17.14 14.57

TERMINAL V.1.18 8.96 7.17 12.88 10.30 13.34 11.52 13.12 11.15 13.72 11.66

ZONE V.1 684.01 561.36 942.63 745.97 984.93 836.47 975.87 841.14 1020.01 879.19

ZONE V.2

TERMINAL V.2.1 6.00 4.80 9.72 7.78 11.29 9.75 13.41 11.40 14.84 12.62

TERMINAL V.2.2 49.00 39.20 123.48 98.78 156.47 135.14 164.67 139.97 190.09 161.58

NEW TERM. V.2.3 3.00 2.40 7.56 6.05 9.58 8.27 10.08 8.57 11.64 9.89

ZONE V.2 58.00 46.40 140.76 112.61 177.34 153.16 188.16 159.94 216.57 184.09

ZONE V.3

TERMINAL V.3.1 112.50 90.00 182.25 145.80 211.70 182.83 251.50 213.78 278.34 236.59

TERMINAL V.3.2 3.75 3.00 6.08 4.86 7.06 6.09 8.38 7.13 9.28 7.89

ZONE V.3 116.25 93.00 188.33 150.66 218.76 188.92 259.88 220.91 287.62 244.48

REGION V 858.26 700.76 1271.72 1009.24 1381.03 1178.55 1423.91 1221.99 1524.20 1307.76

REGION VI

ZONE VI.1

TERMINAL VI.1.1 234.00 195.00 379.08 315.90 416.99 350.27 427.34 390.18 467.76 427.09

TERMINAL VI.1.2 12.84 10.27 20.80 16.64 24.16 20.86 24.46 22.02 26.78 24.10

TERMINAL VI.1.3 26.00 20.80 42.12 33.70 48.93 42.25 49.55 44.59 54.23 48.81


89

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


TERMINAL VI.1.4 18.72 14.98 30.33 24.26 35.23 30.42 35.67 32.11 39.05 35.14

TERMINAL VI.1.5 12.48 9.98 20.22 16.17 23.48 20.28 23.78 21.40 26.03 23.43

TERMINAL VI.1.6 6.24 4.99 10.11 8.09 11.74 10.14 11.89 10.70 13.02 11.71

TERMINAL VI.1.7 31.66 25.32 51.28 41.02 59.57 51.45 60.32 54.29 66.03 59.43

TERMINAL VI.1.8 7.80 6.24 12.64 10.11 14.68 12.68 14.86 13.38 16.27 14.64

TERMINAL VI.1.9 24.96 19.97 40.44 32.35 46.97 40.56 47.56 42.81 52.06 46.86

TERMINAL VI.1.10 3.25 2.60 5.27 4.21 6.12 5.28 6.19 5.57 6.78 6.10

TERMINAL VI.1.11 24.96 19.97 40.44 32.35 46.97 40.56 47.56 42.81 52.06 46.86

TERMINAL VI.1.12 5.20 4.16 8.42 6.74 9.79 8.45 9.91 8.92 10.85 9.76

TERMINAL VI.1.13 12.48 9.98 20.22 16.17 23.48 20.28 23.78 21.40 26.03 23.43

TERMINAL VI.1.14 12.48 9.98 20.22 16.17 23.48 20.28 23.78 21.40 26.03 23.43

TERMINAL VI.1.15 5.20 4.16 8.42 6.74 9.79 8.45 9.91 8.92 10.85 9.76

ZONE VI.1 438.27 358.4 725.61 580.62 801.38 682.21 816.56 704.5 893.83 810.55

ZONE VI.2

TERMINAL VI.2.1 93.75 75.00 146.25 117.00 185.33 160.06 187.68 168.91 200.67 180.61

TERMINAL VI.2.2 62.50 50.00 97.50 78.00 123.55 106.70 125.12 112.61 133.78 120.40

TERMINAL VI.2.3 25.00 20.00 39.00 31.20 49.42 42.68 50.05 45.04 53.51 48.16

TERMINAL VI.2.4 5.00 4.00 7.80 6.24 9.88 8.54 10.01 9.01 10.70 9.63

TERMINAL VI.2.5 5.00 4.00 7.80 6.24 9.88 8.54 10.01 9.01 10.70 9.63

ZONE VI.2 191.25 153.00 282.75 238.68 378.06 326.52 382.87 344.58 409.36 368.43

ZONE VI.3

TERMINAL VI.3.1 153.00 127.50 278.46 232.05 346.91 291.41 372.46 340.07 411.29 375.52

ZONE VI.3 153.00 127.50 278.46 232.05 346.91 291.41 372.46 340.07 411.29 375.52

ZONE VI.4

TERMINAL VI.4.1 97.51 81.26 232.08 193.40 301.70 253.43 309.19 282.31 341.23 311.56

ZONE VI.4 97.51 81.26 232.08 193.40 301.70 253.43 309.19 282.31 341.23 311.56

REGION VI 880.03 720.16 1518.90 1244.75 1828.05 1553.57 1881.08 1707.46 2055.71 1866.06

REGION VII

ZONE VII.1

TERMINAL VII.1.1 121.50 101.25 153.70 128.08 162.53 133.51 158.57 139.54 170.95 150.44

TERMINAL VII.1.2 18.56 14.85 23.48 18.79 23.41 20.22 23.26 20.93 25.07 22.57

TERMINAL VII.1.3 9.45 7.56 11.95 9.56 11.92 10.29 11.84 10.66 12.76 11.49

TERMINAL VII.1.4 10.80 8.64 13.66 10.93 13.62 11.76 13.53 12.18 14.59 13.13

TERMINAL VII.1.5 13.50 10.80 17.08 13.66 17.03 14.71 16.91 15.22 18.24 16.41

TERMINAL VII.1.6 67.50 54.00 85.39 68.31 85.13 73.53 84.57 76.11 91.18 82.06

NEW TERM. VII.1.7 2.03 1.62 2.56 2.05 2.55 2.21 2.54 2.28 2.74 2.46

ZONE VII.1 243.34 198.72 307.82 251.38 316.19 266.23 311.22 276.92 335.53 298.56

ZONE VII.2

TERMINAL VII.2.1 76.59 63.83 124.08 103.40 166.76 136.98 165.86 145.95 177.60 156.29

TERMINAL VII.2.2 5.18 4.14 8.38 6.71 10.62 9.17 10.76 9.68 11.52 10.37

TERMINAL VII.2.3 1.73 1.38 2.79 2.24 3.54 3.06 3.59 3.23 3.84 3.46

TERMINAL VII.2.4 1.73 1.38 2.79 2.24 3.54 3.06 3.59 3.23 3.84 3.46

TERMINAL VII.2.5 5.18 4.14 8.38 6.71 10.62 9.17 10.76 9.68 11.52 10.37

ZONE VII.2 90.41 74.87 146.42 121.30 195.08 161.44 194.56 171.77 208.32 183.95

ZONE VII.2

ZONE VII.3


90

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


TERMINAL VII.3.1 22.50 18.00 39.49 31.59 52.12 45.02 60.20 54.18 65.94 59.35

ZONE VII.3 22.50 18.00 39.49 31.59 52.12 45.02 60.20 54.18 65.94 59.35

ZONE VII.4

TERMINAL VII.4.1 18.75 15.00 31.50 25.20 39.92 34.47 43.17 38.85 47.58 42.82

ZONE VII.4 18.75 15.00 31.50 25.20 39.92 34.47 43.17 38.85 47.58 42.82

ZONE VII.5

TERMINAL VII.5.1 45.00 37.50 72.90 60.75 82.33 67.63 83.47 73.46 93.13 81.95

ZONE VII.5 45.00 37.50 72.90 60.75 82.33 67.63 83.47 73.46 93.13 81.95

REGION VII 420.00 344.09 598.13 490.22 685.64 574.79 692.62 615.18 750.5 666.63

REGION VIII

ZONE VIII.1

TERMINAL VIII.1.1 174.16 145.13 282.13 235.11 379.19 297.93 386.66 322.21 416.20 346.84

TERMINAL VIII.1.2 11.04 8.83 17.88 14.31 23.69 19.57 26.96 22.06 29.02 23.75

TERMINAL VIII.1.3 3.45 2.76 5.59 4.47 7.40 6.12 8.43 6.89 9.07 7.42

TERMINAL VIII.1.4 2.88 2.30 4.66 3.73 6.17 5.10 7.02 5.74 7.56 6.18

TERMINAL VIII.1.5 1.73 1.38 2.80 2.24 3.70 3.06 4.20 3.44 4.53 3.71

ZONE VIII.1 193.26 160.40 313.06 259.86 420.15 331.78 433.27 360.34 466.38 387.90

ZONE VIII.2

TERMINAL VIII.2.1 97.83 78.26 158.48 126.78 192.45 158.98 209.04 171.04 224.87 183.98

TERMINAL VIII.2.2 1.95 1.56 3.16 2.53 3.84 3.17 4.17 3.41 4.48 3.67

TERMINAL VIII.2.3 0.65 0.52 1.05 0.84 1.28 1.06 1.39 1.14 1.49 1.22

ZONE VIII.2 100.43 80.34 162.69 130.15 197.57 163.21 214.60 175.59 230.84 188.87

ZONE VIII.3

TERMINAL VIII.3.1 39.00 31.20 53.82 43.06 59.91 49.49 65.08 53.24 70.90 58.01

TERMINAL VIII.3.2 13.00 10.40 17.94 14.35 19.97 16.50 21.69 17.75 23.63 19.34

TERMINAL VIII.3.3 12.48 9.98 17.22 13.78 19.17 15.84 20.82 17.04 22.69 18.56

ZONE VIII.3 64.48 51.58 88.98 71.19 99.05 81.83 107.59 88.03 117.22 95.91

ZONE VIII.4

TERMINAL VIII.4.1 93.75 75.00 140.63 112.50 156.54 129.32 170.04 139.12 187.64 153.52

TERMINAL VIII.4.2 3.75 3.00 5.63 4.50 6.26 5.17 6.80 5.56 7.51 6.14

TERMINAL VIII.4.3 5.63 4.50 8.44 6.75 9.39 7.76 10.20 8.35 11.26 9.21

TERMINAL VIII.4.4 1.88 1.50 2.81 2.25 3.13 2.59 3.40 2.78 3.75 3.07

TERMINAL VIII.4.5 3.13 2.50 4.69 3.75 5.22 4.31 5.67 4.64 6.25 5.12

TERMINAL VIII.4.6 4.38 3.50 6.56 5.25 7.31 6.03 7.94 6.49 8.76 7.16

ZONE VIII.4 112.52 90.00 168.76 135.00 187.85 155.18 204.05 166.94 225.17 184.22

ZONE VIII.5

TERMINAL VIII.5.1 29.25 23.40 53.24 42.59 70.53 58.26 84.07 68.79 94.12 77.00

ZONE VIII.5 29.25 23.40 53.24 42.59 70.53 58.26 84.07 68.79 94.12 77.00

REGION VIII 499.94 405.72 786.73 638.79 975.15 790.26 1043.58 859.69 1133.73 933.9

REGION IX

ZONE IX.1

TERMINAL IX.1.1 180.00 144.00 259.20 207.36 342.79 274.23 329.63 269.70 356.58 291.74

ZONE IX.1 180.00 144.00 259.20 207.36 342.79 274.23 329.63 269.70 356.58 291.74

ZONE IX.2

TERMINAL IX.2.1 46.20 36.96 66.53 53.22 95.80 76.64 105.07 85.97 113.59 92.93


91

1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6

TERMINAL

AREA


ZONE IX.2 46.20 36.96 66.53 53.22 95.80 76.64 105.07 85.97 113.59 92.93

ZONE IX.3

TERMINAL IX.3.1 40.00 32.00 72.80 58.24 113.57 90.85 124.56 101.91 137.96 112.88

ZONE IX.3 40.00 32.00 72.80 58.24 113.57 90.85 124.56 101.91 137.96 112.88

ZONE IX.4

TERMINAL IX.4.1 13.75 11.00 19.80 15.84 26.14 20.91 27.36 22.39 30.80 25.20

TERMINAL IX.4.1 0.55 0.44 0.79 0.63 1.14 0.91 1.25 1.02 1.32 1.08

TERMINAL IX.4.1 1.65 1.32 2.38 1.90 2.87 2.30 3.01 2.46 3.30 2.70

TERMINAL IX.4.1 5.50 4.40 7.92 6.34 10.45 8.36 10.94 8.95 12.32 10.08

ZONE IX.4 21.45 17.16 30.89 24.71 40.60 32.48 42.56 34.82 47.74 39.06

ZONE IX.5

TERMINAL IX.5.1 84.00 67.20 115.92 92.74 139.97 111.98 139.88 114.44 150.70 123.30

ZONE IX.5 84.00 67.20 115.92 92.74 139.97 111.98 139.88 114.44 150.70 123.30

REGION IX 371.65 297.32 545.34 436.27 732.73 586.18 741.70 606.84 806.57 659.91

COUNTRY 10 447 9 200 14 883 12 997 16 258 14 432 17 802 16 108 18 668 16 858

The thereafter-estimated number of circuits is based on forecasted traffic and the

required grade of service (see par. 2.4.4.1). Circuits for manual and other services

should also been considered.

The calculation of the above traffic data needs:

- Analysis of the available measurement of the originating and terminating

calling rates of the subscribers in the terminal exchanges.

- Pattern distribution of traffic (see Table 2.8) related to categories of traffic in the

trunk network (internal or local, outgoing and incoming long-distance and

international).

- Evolution of the average traffic per subscriber in the future, based on the

evolution of each component related to the offered traffic and subscribers.

- Calculation of traffic per category in all terminal exchanges and aggregation

per Region exchange.

2.3.3.3 Estimation of Traffic Distribution

Traffic originates from terminal exchanges and is distributed to other areas or levels

of the network. Consequently, this distribution (see Table 2.8) of traffic must be

estimated as a function of the following:

a) Terminating or internal traffic.

b) Long-distance national traffic.

c) International traffic.

Due to lack of relevant historical data, it was necessary to assume that a series of

measurements was performed. These measurements were conducted with the already


92

existing network structure in the five major Regions I to V. As it is shown in the first

row of table 2.8, the traffic is mainly distributed in local, long-distance and

international one. The second row of this table corresponds to the proposed network

structure in par. 2.3.1. The second part of the table shows the percentage for each

traffic category and based on that distribution the local, long-distance and

international types of traffic for the year 1996 are calculated.

Considering the situation in the “Republic”, and experience in other similar countries,

the traffic figures of the following paragraphs for busy hour inter-regional trunk

traffic have been estimated.

Traffic calculations are based on the Erlang Loss theory (1 and 33). In accordance

with the change in traffic features, the traffic management method should be

diversified, for example measuring by Bit, Page, Packet, etc. On the basis of these

traffic measurement units, a new concept of traffic theory should be established.

However, there has been no standard traffic forecasting method for the various

services. Moreover, a unified rule cannot be applied to all the services. It is considered

that the traffic forecast of various services can be estimated mostly by a method based

on a macroscopic basis.

It is also important to measure and analyse the traffic data of ISDN field trial and

commercial services, and those of other enhanced services. Then the results should be

examined and modified according to the actual trend data.

The contribution of various services (e.g. manual, ISDN, etc.) to the total traffic will

be of the order of a few percent. As previously mentioned, the traffic of non-voice

services is non redundant and the information is condensed, therefore it will not exert

so much influence on the total traffic. Empirically, five percent of the telephone traffic

is considered as the contribution of various services and is adopted for estimating

telecommunication facility expansion plans.


93

Table 2.8

Traffic distribution

REGION

REMAINS

IN LOCAL

AREA (Erl)

REMAINS

IN GROUP

AREA (Erl)

REMAINS

IN ZONE

AREA (Erl)

REMAINS IN

THE SAME

REGION

AREA (Erl)

OUTGOING

REGION

AREA (Erl)

INTERNA

TIONAL

TRAFFIC

(Erl)

TOTAL

TRAFFIC

(Erl)

Local or Internal Long-distance

REGION I 860,86 1062,57 159,14 78,05 308,18 130,5 2599,3

REGION II 113,34 170,02 29,70 12,51 47,69 17,59 390,85

REGION III 105,13 157,70 27,56 11,59 44,23 16,31 362,52

REGION IV 107,10 7,98 24,15 0 61,53 9,24 210,00

REGION V 190,61 285,92 49,95 21,03 80,19 29,57 657,27

TOTAL 1377,04 1684,19 290,50 123,18 541,82 203,21 4219.94

REMAINS

IN LOCAL

AREA %

REMAINS

IN GROUP

AREA %

REMAINS

IN ZONE

AREA %

REMAINS IN

THE SAME

REGION

AREA %

OUTGOING

REGION

AREA %

INTERNA-

TIONAL

TRAFFIC

%

TOTAL

%

Local or Internal Long-distance

REGION I 33,12 40,88 6,12 3,00 11,86 5,02 100

REGION II 29,00 43,50 7,60 3,20 12,20 4,50 100

REGION III 29,00 43,50 7,60 3,20 12,20 4,50 100

REGION IV 51,00 3,80 11,50 0,00 29,30 4,40 100

REGION V 29,00 43,50 7,60 3,20 12,20 4,50 100

2.3.3.4 Forecasting of Internal and Local Traffic

Internal traffic is the traffic of the Terminal exchange area between two subscribers of

the same Terminal exchange. This will be the majority of the cases in the “Republic”.

All the Terminal exchanges are supposed to switch the traffic of their own terminal

area, so that this traffic is not sent to the Region exchange like the rest of the types of

traffic. Thus, by applying the percentages of traffic of the distribution Table 2.8 on the

subscriber traffic of Table 2.7, we obtain the traffic data of Table 2.9. Due to similar

social and financial structure, it is supposed that for Regions VI, VII, VIII and IX the

traffic distribution of Region V is applied. Table 2.9 gives the total (internal and local)

traffic within each Region.


94

Table 2.9

Internal and Local Traffic in each Region

REGION 1 9 9 6 2 0 0 1 2 0 0 6 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 6


REGION I 3.589 2.766 4.896 4.942 5.035 5.035 5.767 5.766 6.052 6.052

REGION II 924 1.124 1.540 1.540 1.686 1.686 1.868 1.868 1.904 1.904

REGION III 984 984 1.201 1.211 1.481 1.484 1640 1640 1.750 1.750

REGION IV 648 648 940 940 1.150 1.150 1.289 1.289 1.333 1.333

REGION V 856 857 1.201 1.211 1.2666 1.306 1.336 1.376 1.470 1.470

REGION VI 720 720 1.098 1.098 1.359 1.359 1.469 1.469 1.503 1.503

REGION VII 394 394 527 527 610 610 633 633 687 687

REGION VIII 402 402 609 609 813 813 864 864 949 949

REGION IX 262 261 378 378 492 492 546 546 609 609

We suppose that in the “Republic” there is only one multi-exchange urban network in

“Capital” creating Local traffic. To calculate this type of traffic we need:

- Analysis of the available traffic measurement (The application of the

percentages of traffic distribution of Table 2.8 on the subscriber traffic of Table

2.7, has as a result that a traffic of about 1400Erl is the Local one).

- A well-established switching and routing plan for the Region, which has not

been carried-out yet (see par. 1.1.1.1).

- Set-up of a point-to-point matrix of traffic (the offered traffic to transit

routes is broken down into point-to-point flows of traffic between terminal

exchanges) according to par. 1.2.4.3.

- Use of Kruithof’s algorithm and affinity factors (see par. 1.2.4.2.4) for traffic

forecasting.

2.3.3.5 Forecasting of Long-distance Traffic

These forecasts are intimately related to the routing and switching plan, (see par.

1.1.2.1). However, to provide a better understanding of the traffic matrices, a brief

description of this plan is presented below.

Traffic originating in Terminal exchange areas is routed to other Terminal exchange

areas using Region exchanges such as Region I, Region II, Region III, Region IV,

Region V, Region VI, Region VII, Region VIII and Region IX. Traffic destinated to

or incoming from the international network is also transiting via the corresponding

Region exchange.

Thus, by applying the percentages of traffic distribution of Table 2.8 on the subscriber

traffic of Table 2.7, we obtain the traffic data of Table 2.10. It is supposed that the

traffic distribution of Region V is also applied for Regions VI, VII, VIII and IX. Table

2.10 gives the total traffic outgoing from or incoming to each Region.


95

Therefore, it was considered necessary to establish a base matrix for inter-regional

traffic, from which the inter-region traffic could be derived in the first place.

Unfortunately, no basic traffic dispersion data, neither manual ticketing is available.

Thus, it was only possible to prepare a hypothetical interest matrix given in Table

2.11. This hypothetical matrix was based on the subscribers and long-distance traffic

of previous forecasts and takes into account the relative distances, economic and

administrative interests and other available data, which can serve as guidelines for the

dispersion studies. When the SPC exchanges are put into operation more reliable

dispersion figures can be obtained and the matrix should be upgraded.

Preparing the hypothetical interest matrix, and the subsequent route matrices, the

following assumptions were made:

a) The total traffic is a function of the growth of the telephone network.

b) Each region was treated alike but, as the system size grows and direct dialling

facilities become more widespread, there is a tendency for calling rates to vary,

therefore this had been reflected in the matrices.

c) Traffic between adjacent regions will be increased in the future.

d) During the first five years of the plan, the majority of the inter-regional traffic

will be in Region I.

e) During the next ten years, some decentralization will take place and traffic

between other regions will be increased.

f) The traffic has been assumed to depend on the distances and the general

geographical configuration, with certain exceptions related to probable traffic

development between the major airports, roads, etc.

Based on these assumptions and on the hypothetical interest matrix, working matrices

for 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 were prepared, and are given in Tables 2.12,

2.13, 2.14, 2.15 and 2.16. These tables resulted from the application of Kruithof’s

algorithm. They correspond to the routing plan and form the basis for the circuit

forecasting.


96

Table 2.10

Forecasting of outgoing and incoming traffic of each Region

ZONE EXCHANGES Year 1996 Year 2001 Year 2006 Year 2011 Year 2016

outg. incom. outg. incom. outg. incom. outg. incom. outg. incom.

REGION I 710.99 734.48 979.79 1070.35 1158.48 1272.94 1334.83 1413.18 1489.53 1519.18

REGION II 219.87 208.99 338.58 295.67 359.46 353.56 373.95 401.05 394.74 439.16

REGION III 246.83 243.41 328.71 347.65 375.60 413.35 438.65 465.25 456.02 510.59

REGION IV 147.91 139.26 216.15 198.05 268.52 234.45 308.75 264.74 320.35 289.37

REGION V 197.60 149.61 300.10 212.12 333.60 252.80 369.20 285.48 390.70 312.33

REGION VI 164.61 198.75 257.95 281.39 332.63 331.94 378.33 374.25 412.72 408.62

REGION VII 101.30 106.38 141.22 150.94 175.08 178.98 178.41 201.71 193.12 219.63

REGION VIII 114.01 115.18 165.54 163.77 224.72 193.22 231.28 218.50 264.49 238.62

REGION IX 67.58 74.64 98.39 106.48 128.77 126.62 153.47 142.70 171.53 155.71

INTERNATIONAL 480.76 480.76 689.50 689.50 822.05 822.05 921.73 921.73 1003.89 1003.89

TOTAL 2451.46 2451.46 3515.93 3515.92 4178.91 4179.91 4688.60 4688.59 5097.09 5097.10

Total incom. + outg. 4902.92 7031.85 8358.82 9377.19 10194.19


97

Table 2.11

Interest Matrix

REGIONS REGION

I

REGION

II

REGION

III

REGION

IV

REGION

V

REGION

VI

REGION

VII

REGION

VIII

REGION

IX

INTERNA

TIONAL TOTAL

REGION I - 0.13 0.16 0.08 0.09 0.12 0.06 0.07 0.04 0.25 1

REGION II 0.45 - 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.02 0.22 1

REGION III 0.42 0.07 - 0.06 0.05 0.07 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.23 1

REGION IV 0.45 0.06 0.07 - 0.05 0.07 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.20 1

REGION V 0.41 0.07 0.08 0.05 - 0.06 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.24 1

REGION VI 0.40 0.07 0.07 0.06 0.05 - 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.27 1

REGION VII 0.42 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.05 - 0.03 0.02 0.25 1

REGION VIII 0.40 0.06 0.07 0.03 0.04 0.06 0.02 - 0.02 0.30 1

REGION IX 0.42 0.06 0.08 0.04 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.03 - 0.25 1

INTERNATIONAL 0.42 0.10 0.11 0.06 0.07 0.09 0.05 0.06 0.04 - 1


98

Table 2.12

Traffic matrix for the year 1996

REGIONS REGION

I

REGION

II

REGION

III

REGION

IV

REGION

V

REGION

VI

REGION

VII

REGION

VIII

REGION

IX

INTERN. TOTAL

REGION I - 92.43 113.76 56.88 63.99 85.32 42.66 49.77 28.44 177.75 710.99

REGION II 98.94 - 17.59 8.79 10.99 15.39 6.60 8.79 4.40 48.37 219.87

REGION III 103.67 17.28 - 14.81 12.34 17.28 12.34 7.40 4.94 56.77 246.83

REGION IV 66.56 8.87 10.35 - 7.40 10.35 5.92 4.44 4.44 29.58 147.91

REGION V 81.02 13.83 15.81 9.88 - 11.86 7.90 5.93 3.95 47.42 197.60

REGION VI 65.84 11.52 11.52 9.88 8.23 - 3.29 4.94 4.94 44.44 164.61

REGION VII 42.55 6.08 8.10 4.05 5.07 5.07 - 3.04 2.03 25.33 101.30

REGION VIII 45.60 6.84 7.98 3.42 4.56 6.84 2.28 - 2.28 34.20 114.01

REGION IX 28.38 4.05 5.41 2.70 3.38 3.38 1.35 2.03 - 16.90 67.58

INTERNATIONAL 201.92 48.08 52.88 28.85 33.65 43.27 24.04 28.85 19.23 - 480.76

TOTAL 734.48 208.99 243.41 139.26 149.61 198.75 106.38 115.18 74.64 480.76 2,451.46

2,451.46


99

Table 2.13


REGIONS REGION

I

REGION

II

REGION

III

REGION

IV

REGION

V

REGION

VI

REGION

VII

REGION

VIII

REGION

IX

INTERN. TOTAL

REGION I - 127.37 156.77 78.38 88.18 117.57 58.79 68.59 39.19 244.95 979.79

REGION II 152.36 - 27.09 13.54 16.93 23.70 10.16 13.54 6.77 74.49 338.58

REGION III 138.06 23.01 - 19.72 16.44 23.01 16.44 9.86 6.57 75.60 328.71

REGION IV 97.27 12.97 15.13 - 10.81 15.13 8.65 6.48 6.48 43.23 216.15

REGION V 123.04 21.01 24.01 15.01 - 18.01 12.00 9.00 6.00 72.02 300.10

REGION VI 103.18 18.06 18.06 15.48 12.90 - 5.16 7.74 7.74 69.65 257.95

REGION VII 59.31 8.47 11.30 5.65 7.06 7.06 - 4.24 2.82 35.31 141.22

REGION VIII 66.22 9.93 11.59 4.97 6.62 9.93 3.31 - 3.31 49.66 165.54

REGION IX 41.32 5.90 7.87 3.94 4.92 4.92 1.97 2.95 - 24.60 98.39

INTERNATIONAL 289.59 68.95 75.85 41.37 48.27 62.06 34.48 41.37 27.58 - 689.50

TOTAL 1,070.35 295.67 347.65 198.05 212.12 281.39 150.94 163.77 106.48 689.50 3,515.93

3,515.93


100

Table 2.14


REGIONS REGION

I

REGION

II

REGION

III

REGION

IV

REGION

V

REGION

VI

REGION

VII

REGION

VIII

REGION

IX

INTERN. TOTAL

REGION I - 150.60 185.36 92.68 104.26 139.02 69.51 81.09 46.34 289.62 1,158.48

REGION II 161.76 - 28.76 14.38 17.97 25.16 10.78 14.38 7.19 79.08 359.46

REGION III 157.75 26.29 - 22.54 18.78 26.29 18.78 11.27 7.51 86.39 375.60

REGION IV 120.83 16.11 18.80 - 13.43 18.80 10.74 8.06 8.06 53.70 268.52

REGION V 136.78 23.35 26.69 16.68 - 20.02 13.34 10.01 6.67 80.06 333.60

REGION VI 133.05 23.28 23.28 19.96 16.63 - 6.65 9.98 9.98 89.81 332.63

REGION VII 73.53 10.50 14.01 7.00 8.75 8.75 - 5.25 3.50 43.77 175.08

REGION VIII 89.89 13.48 15.73 6.74 8.99 13.48 4.49 - 4.49 67.42 224.72

REGION IX 54.08 7.73 10.30 5.15 6.44 6.44 2.58 3.86 - 32.19 128.77

INTERNATIONAL 345.26 82.20 90.43 49.32 57.54 73.98 41.10 49.32 32.88 - 822.05

TOTAL 1,272.94 353.56 413.35 234.45 252.80 331.94 177.98 193.22 126.62 822.05 4,178.91

4,178.91


101

Table 2.15


REGIONS REGION

I

REGION

II

REGION

III

REGION

IV

REGION

V

REGION

VI

REGION

VII

REGION

VIII

REGION

IX

INTERN. TOTAL

REGION I - 173.53 213.57 106.79 120.13 160.18 80.09 93.44 53.39 333.71 1,334.83

REGION II 168.28 - 29.92 14.96 18.70 26.18 11.22 14.96 7.48 82.27 373.95

REGION III 184.23 30.71 - 26.32 21.93 30.71 21.93 13.16 8.77 100.89 438.65

REGION IV 138.94 18.53 21.61 - 15.44 21.61 12.35 9.26 9.26 61.75 308.75

REGION V 151.37 25.84 29.54 18.46 - 22.15 14.77 11.08 7.38 88.61 369.20

REGION VI 151.33 26.48 26.48 22.70 18.92 - 7.57 11.35 11.35 102.15 378.33

REGION VII 74.93 10.70 14.27 7.14 8.92 8.92 - 5.35 3.57 44.60 178.41

REGION VIII 92.51 13.88 16.19 6.94 9.25 13.88 4.63 - 4.63 69.38 231.28

REGION IX 64.46 9.21 12.28 6.14 7.67 7.67 3.07 4.60 - 38.37 153.47

INTERNATIONAL 387.13 92.17 101.39 55.30 64.52 82.96 46.09 55.30 36.87 - 921.73

TOTAL 1,413.18 401.05 465.25 264.74 285.48 374.25 201.71 218.50 142.70 921.73 4,688.60

4,688.60


102

Table 2.16


REGIONS REGION

I

REGION

II

REGION

III

REGION

IV

REGION

V

REGION

VI

REGION

VII

REGION

VIII

REGION

IX

INTERN. TOTAL

REGION I - 193.64 238.32 119.16 134.06 178.74 89.37 104.27 59.58 372.38 1,489.53

REGION II 177.63 - 31.58 15.79 19.74 27.63 11.84 15.79 7.89 86.84 394.74

REGION III 191.53 31.92 - 27.36 22.80 31.92 22.80 13.68 9.12 104.88 456.02

REGION IV 144.16 19.22 22.42 - 16.02 22.42 12.81 9.61 9.61 64.07 320.35

REGION V 160.19 27.35 31.26 19.54 - 23.44 15.63 11.72 7.81 93.77 390.70

REGION VI 165.09 28.89 28.89 24.76 20.64 - 8.25 12.38 12.38 111.43 412.72

REGION VII 81.11 11.59 15.45 7.72 9.66 9.66 - 5.79 3.86 48.28 193.12

REGION VIII 105.80 15.87 18.51 7.93 10.58 15.87 5.29 - 5.29 79.35 264.49

REGION IX 72.04 10.29 13.72 6.86 8.58 8.58 3.43 5.15 - 42.88 171.53

INTERNATIONAL 421.63 100.39 110.43 60.23 70.27 90.35 50.19 60.23 40.16 - 1,003.89

TOTAL 1,519.18 439.16 510.59 289.37 312.33 408.62 219.63 238.62 155.71 1,003.89 5,097.09

5,097.09


103

2.3.3.6 Forecasting of International Traffic

The main stimulus for the growth of this traffic (36) is the volume of international

trade and, in the case of “Republic”, the existence of separated families across the

borders. However, other factors such as distance, language, time differences and high

costs can often inhibit this growth. Cost, in particular, can be a limiting factor

although in many developing countries technical considerations may have an

important influence. For example, poor quality transmission will discourage the use of

the international service. Long delays in setting-up time and the necessity for booking

calls add more restrictions. Even if transmission is satisfactory, purely manual control

of international calls and, to a smaller extent, semi-automatic working, produce a very

low economic efficiency rate on the provided circuits. On the other hand, changes in

the mode of operation and improvements in transmission means have produced a

much more impressive effect on traffic growth in developing, than in already

developed, countries.

2.3.3.6.1 Growth of International Traffic

We assume that historical traffic data for the period 1990 and 1995 exist for the

Former State of the “Republic”. These data cannot be used for the calculation of

International traffic, because it is not possible to distinguish which part of traffic

belongs to the “Republic”. Thus the lack of reliable historical data (paid minutes)

prohibits the calculation of International traffic. Therefore, this type of traffic can be

estimated using traffic data of the exchanges in Regions I to V (Table 2.8).

In general, traffic measurement is required on international routes for the forecasting

of traffic revenues, as well as for the network dimensioning. However, due to the lack

of sophisticated measuring equipment, the measurements may not be reliable enough

to be used as the single basis for extrapolations or trend analysis.

2.3.3.6.2 Technique of International Traffic Forecasting

Although the considerations in the previous paragraphs are a necessary part of

forecasting, they do not provide for the present case a sufficiently consistent historical

database, on which trend method of forecasting (see par 1.2.4.4) can be based with

confidence.

However, there are two approaches for the study of international traffic:

a) Forecasting based on the number of subscribers

Detailed studies (37) on international traffic have shown that the international

traffic originating from a country is well represented by the following power

function:

Originating international traffic = a (number of subscriber lines)b

The trend is represented by the exponent b, which takes a value always greater

than 1 and often of the order of 2. Using the available historical data, average

values of a and b of 0.0026 and 1.45 respectively were calculated. The


104

application of these values to the forecasted number of subscribers gives the

results of Table 2.17:

Table 2.17

Results of regression analysis using correlation between number of

subscribers and outgoing international traffic

Year Subscribers Paid minutes per

average day

1996 408.714 356.065

2001 592.734 610.407

2005 727.747 821.948

2011 834.656 1.002.672

2016 886.156 1.093.610

Unfortunately the traffic measurements in a country like “Republic” cannot

support the identification of the parameters d, h and e (see par. 1.2.4.4), which

describe the behaviour of subscribers. In order to specify these parameters,

reliable detailed measurements in manual ticketing for a long period and digital

exchanges are needed.

b) Proposed forecasting method

To overcome these difficulties the following method is proposed. A series of

measurements was supposed to be conducted to identify the distribution of

international traffic between the “Republic” and other countries. These

measurements were performed in Regions I to V. The resulting total (outgoing

and incoming) international traffic distribution is shown in Table 2.18. We note

that, due to modern signalling systems (Common Channel Signalling #7),

bothway trunks should be used and thus it is not necessary to discriminate

between outgoing and incoming traffic.

2.3.3.6.3 International Traffic with Specific Countries

Table 2.18 shows the telecommunication traffic interest for specific countries. The

presentation of this traffic shows the interest between the subscribers of these

countries and the subscribers of the “Republic”.

By applying the average international traffic percentage (4.5%) of Table 2.8 on the

Country’s total subscriber traffic of Table 2.7 we obtain the total international traffic.

Then this traffic is distributed to/from the specific countries according to the

measured distribution. Table 2.18 shows also the extrapolation of this traffic to the

years 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016 according to the forecasted number of

subscribers


105

Table 2.18

Distribution of total international traffic to/from “Republic”

INTERNA

TIONAL

CODE

COUNTRY TOTA L

MEASURED

TRAFFIC

INTERNATIONAL TRAFFIC (Erl)

(Erl) % 1996 2001 2005 2011 2016

99-385 CROATIA 46 13.99% 134.52 192.92 230.00 257.90 280.88

99-386 SLOVENIA 16 4.87% 46.82 67.16 80.06 89.78 97.78

99-389 FYROM 4 1.22% 11.74 16.82 20.06 22.50 24.50

99-1 USA & CANADA 20 6.08% 58.46 83.84 99.96 112.08 122.08

99-30 GREECE 8 2.43% 23.36 33.50 39.96 44.80 48.78

99-31 HOLLAND 6 1.82% 17.50 25.10 29.92 33.56 36.54

99-41 SWISS 14 4.26% 40.96 58.74 70.04 78.54 85.54

99-43 AUSTRIA 28 8.52% 81.92 117.50 140.08 157.06 171.06

99-44 GREAT BRITAIN 4 1.22% 11.74 16.82 20.06 22.50 24.50

99-46 SWEDEN 8 2.43% 23.36 33.50 39.96 44.80 48.78

99-49 GERMANY 58 17.64% 169.62 243.26 290.02 325.18 354.18

99-381 YUGOSLAVIA 96,8 29.44% 283.08 405.98 484.02 542.72 593.10

99-XX OTHER

COUNTRIES 20 6.08% 58.46 83.84 99.96 112.08 122.08

TOTAL 328,8 100% 480.76 689.5 822.05 921.73 1003.89

2.3.4 Circuit Forecasting

Dimensioning is defined as the process whereby equipment quantities for a traffic

route, a switching stage, an exchange or the whole telecommunication network, is

determined on the basis of given traffic data and the required grade of service.

Trunk circuits are proposed to be engineered for a grade of service of 0.01 or 1 lost

call in 100 and this is also applied to international traffic, as well as to remote

concentrators. For junctions in the same town, a grade of service of 0.005 is proposed.

The traffic forecasts should include provision for ineffective traffic caused by faulty

circuits and equipment. The forecasting includes test calls and other service traffic.


106

The production of the Traffic Matrices (with the methodology which was described in

the previous paragraphs) provides us with data concerning the circuit point-to-point

forecasting of the various exchange hierarchical levels.

It should be noted that, the number of circuits that will be depicted on the

corresponding tables can be used for the estimation of the capacity of the transmission

systems between adjacent switching points. The dimensioning of circuit Trunk

Groups connecting switching points is carried out according to Erlang Loss formula

(31) with the use of existing tables (33).

The circuit engineering is conducted with the grade of service proposed above and it

should also include provision for leased lines for private and governmental use. The

requirements of civil aviation, meteorological, port, and other services, can also be

met within this provision. Provision should also be made for manual telephony,

telegraph and telex circuits.

In countries exiting a war, in certain cases, circuit forecasting is not directly related to

the traffic forecasting. This is due to unavoidable delays, concerning the provision of

the equipment so that it meets the demand. These delays may also be due to the

absence of electric power, time required to construct the buildings, to equipment

delivery, etc. The circuit forecasts are closely related to the equipment installation

schedules.

An alternative option for the hierarchical structure of the network is that traffic

between Zone exchanges is routed through transit exchanges in order to achieve

financial advantages from the creation of big trunk groups. Then transit exchanges

may be installed e.g. in Region I, Region V and Region VII for geographical reasons.

2.4 METHODOLOGY of ISDN FORECASTING

The spread-out of ISDN is a result of the need for second telephone line, the

development of telematic applications (telework, teletraining, teleconference, etc),

and mainly Internet. ISDN implementation should certainly be based upon technical

plans like the switching plan, transmission plan, routing plan, signalling plan,

synchronization plan and access network plan.

Since ISDN has not been introduced so far to the network of the “Republic”, the

whole problem should be faced from zero basis. The ISDN forecasting, in principle,

will follow the time milestones already set for switching plan, i.e. for the years 1996,

2001, etc. up to 2016.

2.4.1 Key Factors

In chapter 1 the various factors concerning the general problem of forecast (demand

forecast, traffic forecast) have been analysed. Beyond these factors, other key factors,

which influence the introduction and the diffusion of ISDN are: the tariff level, the

availability of service and the digitalisation rate.


107

The penetration of ISDN depends on the tariff level. If it is set too high, a PTSN

subscriber will not change to ISDN. The following Table 2.19 describes the tariff

level for both ISDN services (PRA and BRA) in the “Country”, the most developed

country in telecommunications in the region of “Republic”.

Table 2.19

Example of tariff level adjustment

Up to

1-3-99

1-3-99 to

21-11-99

22-11-99 to now

BRA installation fee 234,6 87,98 58,65

BRA monthly rental 23,46 17,6 17,6

PRA installation fee 2346 2346 1466,3

PRA monthly rental 351,9 322,6 293,3

(Amounts in Euro)

Installation fee for the ISDN in developed countries is 1 to 4 times as the one for

ordinary telephones, while basic monthly rental is 2 to 5 times greater (38).

Fig 2.1 and 2.2 show the evolution of applications for ISDN BRA and PRA in the

“Country”. In these figures there are three abrupt changes in March, August and

November 1999, thus verifying the close relation between the tariff levels and the

ISDN penetration. The change in demand in March 1999, was a consequence of the

new reduced tariff levels to about twice as the ordinary telephones (see Table 2.19).

The change in demand in November 1999, was a consequence of the further reduced

tariff levels. The change in demand in August 1999, was the result of an advertising

campaign.

Figure 2.1

Evolution of BRA applications

BRA APPLICATIONS

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

Ju

ly 1

99

8

Au

gu

st

19

98

Se

pte

mb

er

19

98

Oc

tob

er

19

98

No

ve

mb

er

19

98

De

ce

mb

er

19

98

Ja

nu

ary

19

99

Fe

bru

ary

19

99

Ma

rch

19

99

Ap

ril

19

99

Ma

y 1

99

9

Ju

ne

19

99

Ju

ly 1

99

9

Au

gu

st

19

99

Se

pte

mb

er

19

99

Oc

tob

er

19

99

No

ve

mb

er

19

99

De

ce

mb

er

19

99

BRA APPLICATIONS


108

Figure 2.2

Evolution of PRA applications

The following Table 2.20 describes the evolution of the ISDN BRA and PRA demand

in the “Country”. It is noted that the initially BRA and PRA connections are not null

because of test (service) connections.

Availability of ISDN is another key issue to its diffusion. It can be said that, the more

places ISDN is connected to, the more the demand is increased. It is obvious that this

can be achieved only with high digitalisation rates. Digitalisation is a prerequisite for

the ISDN connections, since analogue exchanges do not offer this possibility.

PRA APPLICATIONS

0

50

100

150

200

250

300July

1998

August

1998

Septe

mber

1998

Octo

ber

1998

Novem

ber

1998

Decem

ber

1998

January

1999

Febru

ary

1999

Marc

h 1

999

April 1999

May 1

999

June 1

999

July

1999

August

1999

Septe

mber

1999

Octo

ber

1999

Novem

ber

1999

Decem

ber

1999

PRA APPLICATIONS


109

Table 2.20

ISDN evolution in Country

BRA

Monthly

Demand

PRA

Monthly

Demand

Monthly

Total

Demand

(PSTN+

ISDN)

% BRA-

ISDN

Demand

to Total

Demand

% PRA-

ISDN

Demand

to Total

Demand

Total

Connected

Main

Lines

BRA

Connected

PRA/

Connected

%BRA/

Connected

Main Lines

%PRA ch /

Connected

Main Lines

A B C A/C B/C D E F E/D 30F/D

July 1998 132 22712 0,581 5491291 0,000 0,000

August 1998 120 45 19408 0,618 0,232 5500238 1997 248 0,036 0,135

September 1998 239 41 27917 0,856 0,147 5514909 2215 326 0,040 0,177

October 1998 274 35 21714 1,262 0,161 5523479 2678 366 0,048 0,199

November 1998 421 61 23370 1,801 0,261 5529540 2886 383 0,052 0,208

December 1998 279 37 17352 1,608 0,213 5535521 3258 448 0,059 0,243

January 1999 240 53 16665 1,440 0,318 5531999 3514 497 0,064 0,270

February 1999 287 55 10299 2,787 0,534 5531983 3813 568 0,069 0,308

March 1999 1010 60 40342 2,504 0,149 5544448 4528 622 0,082 0,337

April 1999 884 76 26302 3,361 0,289 5552703 5429 699 0,098 0,378

May 1999 1229 66 25928 4,740 0,255 5562257 6844 789 0,123 0,426

June 1999 1457 62 28102 5,185 0,221 5569674 8096 884 0,145 0,476

July 1999 1719 61 26400 6,511 0,231 5574417 10149 1008 0,182 0,542

August 1999 1920 135 25701 7,471 0,525 5579900 11447 1031 0,205 0,554

September 1999 3584 145 33040 10,847 0,439 5587201 14792 1170 0,265 0,628

October 1999 3816 206 30391 12,556 0,678 5596469 16840 1118 0,301 0,599

November 1999 6186 251 35643 17,355 0,704 5602180 22695 1338 0,405 0,717

December 1999 6437 184 31941 20,153 0,576 5610931 27542 1478 0,491 0,790


110

2.4.2 ISDN Demand Forecast

Demand forecast for ISDN, in cases of lack of specific data, can be based on

international practice and experience. The ITU-T methodology already described in

par. 1.2.6 cannot be applied. Ordinary telephone connections do not increase

drastically in developed countries in the recent years. Therefore, ISDN forecasting is

possible only with the comparison method for a country presenting certain similarities

to the “Republic”, like the “Country”.

The growth of ISDN subscribers can be correlated to the growth of the total number

of telephone subscribers, but ISDN subscription will increase depending on the social

conditions, the tariffs and the availability of service. The following figures 2.3 and 2.4

represent the ISDN BRA and PRA growth in the “Country”. It can be seen that the

BRA growth follows an exponential trend, while the PRA growth follows a linear

trend. This is due to the fact that BRA connections are mainly addressed to

residential/small business subscribers, while PRA connections are addressed to large

business subscribers.

Figure 2.3

ISDN-BRA versus connected lines growth

This exponential curve indicates that an S-curve, with three distinct parts

(exponential, linear and Gompertz), similar to the one of par. 1.2.1.1.1 applies for the

penetration of ISDN connections. This is also supported by the data given in (15),

(16) and (17) for various countries. Up to now, no country has reached the saturation

phase for ISDN connections. Countries like Norway have reached a penetration of

44% in 2000 (38).

BRA %/CON. MAIN LINES

0,000

0,100

0,200

0,300

0,400

0,500

0,600

Ju

ly 1

99

8

Au

gu

st

19

98

Se

pte

mb

er

19

98

Oc

tob

er

19

98

No

ve

mb

er

19

98

De

ce

mb

er

19

98

Ja

nu

ary

19

99

Fe

bru

ary

19

99

Ma

rch

19

99

Ap

ril

19

99

Ma

y 1

99

9

Ju

ne

19

99

Ju

ly 1

99

9

Au

gu

st

19

99

Se

pte

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er

19

99

Oc

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er

19

99

No

ve

mb

er

19

99

De

ce

mb

er

19

99

BRA %/CON. MAIN LINES


111

Figure 2.4

ISDN-PRA versus connected lines growth

Between the years 1996 and 1998, the exponential development of ISDN BRA for the

“Republic” is expected to be the same as in the “Country”. As shown in Table 2.20,

for the case of the “Country”, a total percentage of 1,28% ISDN connected channels

(BRA and PRA) was achieved in a period of 18 months, with a ratio 18,5 BRA to 1

PRA connection (30 channels) and a Total Telephone saturated penetration of about

56%. The same is expected to happen in the “Republic” by the year 2016. Between

the years 1998 and 2016 a linear trend is anticipated.

The data of Table 2.20 for the “Country”, which follow the exponential curve of fig.

2.3 for the BRA demand, can be fitted by the curve:

y = e ax+b

where, a=0,1949832 and b= - 4,063109, with a correlation coefficient of 0,9986.

After this point (1998, 18 months after the beginning of 1996), we can safely assume

that the ISDN demand enters to the linear part of the S-curve. This linear part is

described by the tangent of the above exponential curve in year 1998 (18 months

later) and is:

y = (1+a(x-xo)) e (axo +b)

where, xo = 18 and a and b are the values listed in the above exponential curve.

Applying the above equations for the “Republic” we obtain the ISDN BRA and PRA

demand of Table 2.21, which gives the forecast for ISDN BRA and PRA demand and

the resulting BRA penetration, for the years 2001 to 2016.

PRA %/ CON. MAIN LINES

0,000

0,100

0,200

0,300

0,400

0,500

0,600

0,700

0,800

0,900

July

1998

August

1998

Septe

mber

1998

Octo

ber

1998

Novem

ber

1998

Decem

ber

1998

January

1999

Febru

ary

1999

Marc

h 1

999

April 1999

May 1

999

June 1

999

July

1999

August

1999

Septe

mber

1999

Octo

ber

1999

Novem

ber

1999

Decem

ber

1999

PRA %/ CON. MAIN LINES


112

Table 2.21

ISDN BRA and PRA forecasts

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

%BRA/ConnectedLines 5,284 12,010 18,737 25,464

Connected Lines 408.715 592.735 750.214 834.660 887.403

BRA (2B+D) 15.660* 31.320 90.101 156.390 225.968

PRA (30B+D) 846* 1.693 4870 8.454 12.214

Population 1.151.847 1.222.528 1.317.010 1.418.794 1.528.444

BRA penetration - 2,56% 6,84% 11,02% 14,78%

* half of 2001

Given the forecasts for the year 2001, the estimation of the necessary initial capacities

of BRA and PRA is not any more a problem of forecasting, but a practical question of

finding an equilibrium between the availability of the service, its financing and the

time elapsing for the equipment installation. An empirical approach to this question is

that, initially (1996), half the forecast of 2001 should be installed. Therefore, an initial

installation of 15.660 BRA and 846 PRA connections can be considered as a good

approach to begin with.

Table 2.22 describes the distribution of the ISDN BRA connections in the Regions of

the “Republic” and Table 2.23 the distribution of the ISDN PRA connections in the

same Regions for the forecasting period. The distribution is based on the forecasted

number of subscriber demand of Table 2.5.

Table 2.22

Distribution of BRA demand

Demand Demand Demand Demand Demand

REGION 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

REGION I 6.298 12.014 33.355 58.378 83.124

REGION II 1.889 3.911 10.541 18.001 25.841

REGION III 2.174 4.086 11.410 19.835 28.789

REGION IV 994 1.996 6.037 10.639 15.209

REGION V 1.207 2.559 7.333 12.613 18.372

REGION VI 1.224 2.897 9.555 16.268 24.146

REGION VII 582 1.141 3340 5.725 8.430

REGION VIII 722 1.563 4.912 8.614 12.721

REGION IX 570 1.153 3.617 6.318 9.336

COUNTRY 15.660 31.320 90.101 156.390 225.968


113

Table 2.23

Distribution of PRA demand

Demand Demand Demand Demand Demand

REGION 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

REGION I 340 649 1.803 3.156 4.493

REGION II 102 211 570 973 1.397

REGION III 117 221 617 1.072 1.556

REGION IV 54 108 326 575 822

REGION V 65 138 396 682 993

REGION VI 66 157 516 879 1.305

REGION VII 31 62 181 309 456

REGION VIII 39 85 265 466 688

REGION IX 31 62 196 342 505

COUNTRY 846 1.693 4870 8.454 12.214

2.4.3 ISDN Traffic forecast

ITU-T Recommendations series E.7xx is devoted to ISDN traffic engineering, dealing

namely with offered traffic modelling (E.71x), Grade of Service objectives (E.72x)

and dimensioning rules (E.73x) in order to insure that sufficient network resources

will be allocated to handle the offered traffic, thus achieving the Grade of Service

objectives. Unfortunately, these theoretical models are extremely complex, need

special measurement facilities to provide data which do not exist even in developed

countries and, in any case, missing in countries exiting a war. Furthermore these,

models are incomplete leaving open subjects for the future.

Subscribers traffic measurements in the “Country” show that the average subscriber

originating and terminating traffic is the same for PSTN and ISDN subscribers. Thus

for ISDN introduction no specific traffic demand is set. For ISDN traffic demand

forecast in the “Republic” the resulting traffic in par 2.3.3 will be expected, since

ISDN subscribers result from PSTN subscriber conversion.

2.4.4 ISDN Switching plan

The introduction of ISDN services is closely related to the switching plan to be

followed in each country. Among the already defined sites for the installation of the

various hierarchical types of digital exchanges, those where digital exchanges will be

defined as combined (PSTN & ISDN) will be selected for the various steps of ISDN

evolution.

Therefore, the implementation of ISDN is proposed to be as follows:


114

a) The implementation of ISDN may start from the sites where digital exchanges

are to be installed i.e. from the capitals of the Regions, thus having wide enough

dispersion of service availability. Among these three, PSTN/ISDN exchanges

namely the capitals of Region I, Region V and Region VII are proposed to

become combined. At the same time, these three will be STPs (Signalling

Transfer Points) as well. Local exchanges being defined as Remote Units of the

above exchanges may also provide ISDN connections. The initial ISDN

accesses are proposed to be distributed as shown in Tables 2.22 and 2.23 for the

year 1996.

b) The next step is defined in the year 2001. In this one, as well as in the later

steps, the rest digital exchanges are going to be enriched in BRA and PRA

connections becoming combined PSTN/ISDN exchanges. The detailed

distribution of the ISDN connections in these steps must be defined in detail

after relevant data are collected and properly evaluated.

2.5 ΤHE INFLUENCE of REFUGEES

One way to examine the influence of refugees is by seeking the weighted average

with the upper and lower limit solutions, which correspond respectively to the

assumptions that all war refugees stay in the considered area and all of them leave it

thereafter. Another way, is to assume some distribution, for example a negative

exponential distribution, for the relation between the number of leaving refugees and

the elapsed time. The results of these two methods will be compared and the proper

one will be adopted.

If we consider a Region with total population N, part of which is the number of

refugees NR, then the rate of total population change is:

ΔΝ = βΝ – γNR (I)

Δt

and the rate of refugees population change is:

ΔNR = βNR – γNR (II)

Δt

Where: β = the annual rate of population increase (which is the same for local

population and refugees). In paragraph 2.2.3.1 this parameter was

defined as 1,5%.

γ = the rate of refugees departure from the initial installation region. This

parameter depends on the living conditions, the vocational re-

establishment, the political environment, the repatriation opportunities,

etc.

The rate of change in installed telephones NT is:

ΔNT = F(cN – NT) (III)

Δt


115

or the “net” demand d is:

d = cN – NT

Where: c = the demand per inhabitant (assumed the same for local residents or

refugees). D = cN represents the total demand, that is the number of

telephones that should be installed to satisfy all applications. We assume

that there is a demand until NT = cN (usually c≤ 1, this is also valid in

the case of “Republic”). As a result of Tables 2.2 and 2.5, this parameter

has the value 0,3548 for 1996, 0,4848 for 2001, 0,5696 for 2006 and

0,5806 for both 2011 and 2016.

F = constant representing the demand in the unit of time (percent of

telephones installed per year out of those requested – (D)). This

parameter is considered as 0,7 for the first five years, that means that

70% of the new demand is fulfilled. Afterwards, this parameter is

considered as 1, which means that after the initial 5-year period the PTT

“Republic” satisfies completely the demand (which is a rather optimistic

assumption).

The possible three cases of the influence of refugees’ departure are described by the

parameter γ in fig 2.5.

γ γ γ

γο

1

0 t 0 tD t 0 t

(a) (b) (c)

Fig. 2.5

Three cases of the rate of refugees’ departure

In the first case (a) that all refugees stay, γ = 0. This is a rather theoretical case, since

the refugees will try to adapt themselves according to their social origin and the

possibility to ensure a job similar to their original one. For example, lawyers, doctors,

etc. will seek to settle in urban centers. This is the assumption we made for our

forecasting.

In the second case (b) that all refugees depart at time tD, then γ(t) = 0 for tD < t and

γ(t) = 1 for t ≧ tD This is the case, where all refugees may be relocated by the state in

order to find more appropriate conditions. Therefore, this case can be rather applied

for the Region or the Zone exchange areas, than for the Country as a whole.

In the third case (c) that a negative exponential distribution describes the relation

between the number of leaving refugees and the elapsed time, γ(t) = γοe –at

. The


116

parameter “a” defines the average rate of the refugee departure. The γο is the initial rate

of the exponential decrease of refugee departure. This is the case of emigration abroad or

relocation in other regions inside the country on an individual basis.

The equations (I), (II) and (III) form a mathematical system of ordinary differential

equations. The derived results are presented in Fig. 2.6 and are extensively discussed

in par. 3.4.

Fig 2.6 depicts, in arbitrary units, the influence of refugees on N, NT and NR for the

three distinct cases in a 20-year forecasting period. For this figure we assume an initial

refugee population of NR = 0,3N. We also assume that the parameter F = 0,7 for the

first 5 years and F = 1 for the rest of the years. Therefore, an initial value of NT =

0,24, resulting from Tables 2.2 and 2.5, is used. Finally, we assume that in the second

case (all refugees leave) the departure of refugees takes place within the first year.

Fig. 2.6

Influence of refugees on N, NT and NR

In Fig. 2.6 we can see that, the number of refugees NRall grows with the same rate of

1,5% per year as the total population N. Under the assumptions of the present

paragraph, the number of installed telephones NTall follows a curve that shows

saturation after about 12 years. In the other two cases, although NRΔ and NRexp don’t

change in the same way, the corresponding total population (NΔ and Nexp) and the

installed telephones (NTΔ and NTexp) have almost the same variation after about three

years and they also present saturation after about 12 years.


117

3. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS

The present thesis contributes to the prediction of the subscriber, the traffic and the

ISDN demand for countries after a war, properly adapting the ITU-T methodology.

This methodology does not cover the case of a country under special circumstances,

as for example a country exiting from war named “Republic”. A war has as a result

not only the destruction of the telecommunications network, but, even more

important, the creation of a new social reality. This is expressed with the presence of

refugees in regions totally or partially evacuated by their original populations. Under

these circumstances it is useful to extend the ITU forecasting rules to the countries

under special circumstances by studying the influence of refugee’s presence.

Especially, we take into account the lack of historical data, the mobility of population

under these special circumstances, the presence of refugees, as well as the change of

the territorial status.

In the first chapter we present the subscriber, the traffic and the ISDN demand

methodology of ITU-T.

The accurate telephone demand and traffic forecasting is a basic need for every

Telecommunication Operator in order to allocate capitals in time, when the real needs

arise. For the “Republic” the existing limited historical data are used and the

internationally recommended methodologies of ITU-T are extended to offer a reliable

forecast. The results are reviewed in the present chapter. The subscriber forecasting is

carried-out for the years 1996, 2001, 2005, 2011 and 2016. A linear interpolation will

give the forecast for the years in-between.

Data concerning the traffic (originating and terminating) in each network level are the

basis on which the dimensioning of the network of the “Republic” will be built. The

traffic forecasting, based on the subscriber forecasting, was carried-out for the same

period.

The evolution of the ISDN network and the application of teleservices and

supplementary services will mainly follow the implementation of the switching plan.

This means that the implementation will start from the main urban and industrial areas

and then will pass to the rest of the terminal exchanges. A new method is presented

based on data of a country, with similarities to the examined one.

Finally the consequences of the mobility of refugees on the network development are

examined. This is examined for two extreme cases, i.e. the case that all refugees stay

in their new locations or the case that all of them leave them in a short period. A third

case, that refugees leave with a negative exponential rate is also examined. A fourth

case, in which that refugees leave with variable rate is finally examined. The results of

these four cases are then compared and discussed.


118

3.1 RESULTS from SUBSCRIBER FORECASTING

Precise Demand forecasting is of major importance to all telecommunications

organizations in order to outsource investment money on time, according to their

needs.

The par. 2.2 titled “Methodology of subscriber demand forecasting” deals with all

these aspects for the telecommunications organization of the “Republic”. The

methodology followed is one that has been presented by ITU-T and adopted in the

present study in the case of a country exiting from war. The study refers to the years

1996 up to 2016.

Initially, reference is made to all historical data that have been taken into account in

this study, an analysis of the strategies and the methodology of ITU-T applied in

similar studies is presented (e.g. for the definition of saturation level), and the final

results are depicted.

The data, which have been taken into account, come from official statistical data of

the former state of the “Republic”, from PTT “Republic”, from the University of the

“Capital”, and from data of similar network studies conducted in other countries.

Because of the special conditions that exist in the “Republic”, after the end of the war,

there has been great difficulty in gathering all needed data. Thus, in the relevant par.

2.2 a number of approximations have been made.

In the absence of reliable historical growth figures concerning solely the “Republic”

and not Former State of “Republic”, it was necessary to carry-out the demand

forecasting by means of population penetration studies and econometric methods.

These studies and the relevant results are also included in chapter 2.

The data presented are related to the subscriber forecasting (demand forecasting), to

the household forecasting, the population and the telephone density in each Terminal

exchange area up to the year 2016.

Based on the above mentioned data, on experience obtained from similar

telecommunication studies, and having in mind the international trends of the

telecommunication developments, the use of the methodology described in the

previous par. 1.2 and 1.3 were applied. As a result, the necessary data for the relative

telecommunication studies were estimated and are shown in the following Tables:

Table 2.1 Existing national network before and after the war. For each Terminal

exchange area the installed lines, in-use lines, existing penetration and

waiting list are given for the time before the war. These data are compared

with the corresponding ones after the war. The installed and in-use lines

present a small increase, while the waiting list presents an increase of 21%.

Table 2.2 Population Forecast. Based on the estimated population for each Zone

exchange area for the year 1996 and the annual rate of population increase

of 1,5%, this Table shows an estimation of the population for years 1996,

2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. The total population of the “Republic” is

expected to become 1.528.444 by the year 2016 (see Fig. 3.1)


119

Table 2.3 Household forecast. Given the number of family members per household,

which ranges from 2,3 to 4,3, per Zone exchange area, this Table shows

the Household Forecasting for each Zone exchange area for the years

1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. A number of 440.933 households is

estimated for the year 2016. Then the number of residential subscribers is

calculated on the assumption that there will be at least one telephone per

household on the year 2016 (see Fig. 3.2).

Table 2.4 Occupation of population in various activities for the year 1990 in Former

State of “Republic”. This Table shows historical data of the Former State

of “Republic”, which had to do with the occupation of the population in

various activities and data concerning the economic development of the

Former State of “Republic” (GDP) per Zone exchange area. Then the

number of business subscribers is calculated for each Zone exchange area,

based on the fact that an average growth rate of 2,5% for the GDP is

expected for the period of forecasting.

Table 2.5 Subscriber demand forecasting per Terminal area. Based on the above

parameters, the total subscriber demand is calculated (see Fig. 3.3)

All the information of the above Tables will form the basis for the forecasting of

traffic and ISDN demand in the “Republic”.

POPULATION

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

1.800.000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

REGION I

REGION II

REGION III

REGION IV

REGION V

REGION VI

REGION VII

REGION VIII

REGION IX

COUNTRY

Figure 3.1

Evolution of Population


120

HOUSEHOLDS

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

450.000

500.000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

REGION I

REGION II

REGION III

REGION IV

REGION V

REGION VI

REGION VII

REGION VIII

REGION IX

COUNTRY

Figure 3.2

Evolution of Households

TELEPHONE DEMAND

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

900.000

1.000.000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

REGION I

REGION II

REGION III

REGION IV

REGION V

REGION VI

REGION VII

REGION VIII

REGION IX

COUNTRY

Figure 3.3

Evolution of Telephone Demand


121

The demand forecasts at the national and regional level have been based on the

estimate of households and the penetration of telephones based on estimated settled

population for residential subscribers (with special care in the region VII and zones

I.11 and I.12). The forecast indicates that by the year 2016 the demand will be

887.402 direct exchange lines with a penetration of 58.06%. To meet this demand the

network would have to grow from the present 239.253 lines. This represents an annual

average growth rate of about 12% over a 20 year period reaching saturation about

2011. This fast growth requires very special efforts and substantial financing in the

earlier stages of the plan when the basic infrastructures are laid down.

3.2 RESULTS from TRAFFIC FORECASTING

Traffic forecasting follows the subscriber demand forecasting, which is of major

importance to all telecommunications organizations in order to dimension their

network in time, according to their needs.

The par. 2.3 titled “Methodology of traffic forecasting” deals with all these aspects for

the telecommunication organization of the “Republic”. The methodology followed is

one that has been adopted by ITU-T in similar studies. The study refers to the years

1996 up to 2016.

Initially, reference is made to all historical data as well as to the necessary traffic

measurements that have been taken into account in this study, an analysis of the

international methodology of ITU-T (applied in similar studies) and the final results

are presented.

The data, which have been taken into account, come from official statistical data of

the Former State of the “Republic”, from recent traffic measurements in a limited

number of exchanges, from PTT of the “Republic”, and from data of similar network

studies from other countries. Because of the special conditions in the “Republic”,

there was a great difficulty in making assumptions and approximations (see par. 2.3).

Data presented are related to subscriber behaviour (originating and terminating

subscriber traffic), to originating and terminating traffic in each terminal area, to the

existing network status, to the interest coefficient matrix among various Region

exchanges, to point-to-point traffic between these exchanges, to point-to-point circuit

dimensioning concerning these exchanges, and to international communications with

other countries. These data are the basis on which the dimensioning of the network of

the “Republic” will be built. The Tables 2.6 to 2.18 show the forecast parameters of

Traffic forecasting for “Republic” as follows:

Table 2.6 Originating and terminating traffic per subscriber. The results of

measurements and historical data from other countries have been used for

the calculation of originating and terminating traffic per subscriber for

each Terminal exchange area.

Table 2.7 Originating and terminating traffic. By multiplying the calling rates of

Table 2.6 with the number of forecasted subscribers the originating and

terminating traffic for each Terminal exchange area and for the years

1996 to 2016 is calculated.


122

Table 2.8 Traffic distribution. Traffic originating from Terminal exchanges is

distributed to into terminating or local, long distance national and

international one.

Table 2.9 Internal and Local traffic in each Region. Based on the previous

distribution of traffic and on the originating and terminating traffic

forecasted for each Region in Table 2.7, the Internal and Local traffic in

each Region is forecasted for the period 1996 to 2016.

Table 2.10 Forecasting of outgoing and incoming traffic of each Region. By

applying the percentages of Traffic distribution of Table 2.8 on the

subscriber traffic of Table 2.7 we obtain the forecasts of outgoing and

incoming traffic of each Region as well as the outgoing and incoming

international traffic for the period 1996 to 2016.

Table 2.11 Interest matrix. The inter-regional traffic matrix was formed based on the

number of subscribers, long-distance traffic, relative distances, and

economic and administrative interests.

Tables 2.12

to 2.16

Traffic matrices for the years 1996, 2001, 2006, 2011 and 2016. Based on

the Interest matrix and applying the Kruithof’s algorithm, the inter-

regional traffic matrices for the years 1996 to 2016 result.

Table 2.17 Correlation between number of subscribers and outgoing international

traffic. By applying the ITU-T methodology the paid minutes per day are

identified.

Table 2.18 Distribution of total international traffic to/from “Republic”. Based on the

average international traffic percentage of 4,5% (Table 2.8) we obtain the

total international traffic, which is distributed to/from various countries

according to traffic measurements. Then this traffic is extrapolated up to

the year 2016 according to the forecasted number of subscribers.

3.3 RESULTS from ISDN DEMAND FORECASTING

At present, PTT “Republic” offers only telephone, telex and telegraph services. ISDN

is a recently applied concept providing new telecommunication services and Value-

Added services.

As a first step, the influence of key factors, such as tariff level, availability of service

and digitalisation rate, on the introduction and diffusion of ISDN are examined in a

“Country” presenting similarities with the “Republic”.

The existing ITU-T methodology is not applicable in a country exiting a war.

Additionally, the forecasting of ISDN, contrary to PSTN, cannot be based on data of

an already existing service, since it is newly introduced in the network. Beyond this

difficulty, the introduction of ISDN is, in a considerable level, realised not by making

new connections but by converting PSTN lines into ISDN ones. Following these, a

new approach of ISDN BRA and PRA demand forecasting, not included in ITU-T

methodology, is developed in the present thesis.

The experience in the “Country” and relevant data from other countries indicate that

an S-curve similar to the one of par. 1.2.1.1.1 applies also for the ISDN demand, at

least for the two first parts, i.e. the exponential and the linear ones. The exponential

part describes the first period of fast development due to the business demand. The


123

second (linear) part is characterised by the fact that ISDN service becomes an

important good for residential use. As for the third part, it may show a saturation of

demand if it is proved that it can be described by a Gompertz curve.

Figure 3.4

Evolution of ISDN BRA and PRA Demand

The adoption of the exponential and the linear curves for the “Republic” leads to the

forecasting of ISDN BRA and PRA connections in the “Republic”. These are given in

Table 2.21, which shows a BRA penetration of 14,78% for 2001 (see Fig. 3.4).

Thereafter, the BRA and PRA demand are distributed to the Regions (see Tables 2.22

and 2.23) and some engineering points are considered.

3.4 CONCLUSIONS on the INFLUENCE of REFUGEES

3.4.1 The Influence of Refugees on Subscriber Demand

The theoretical model which describes the influence of refugees on the telephone

demand has been was presented in par. 2.5. The subscriber and traffic demand

forecasting carried out in chapter 2 was based on the assumption that all refugees stay,

since there was no distinction between local population and refugees.

In the second case (see fig. 2.6), where all refugees leave at year 1, there is an abrupt

change in the number of refugees NR, which are present in the Region. This results in

an abrupt change of the total population N and a kink in the number of connected

telephones NTΔ. Consequently, there will be a surplus offer of connections compared

to the demand for a period, after which the demand recovers. The recovery period is

about 3 years. Thereafter, NTΔ behaves as in the previous case in which all refugees

stay.

BRA ISDN DEMAND

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

BRA

PRA ISDN DEMAND

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

1996 2001 2006 2011 2016

PRA


124

In the third case of “smooth” departure of refugees with an exponential rate, the

number of installed telephones NT also shows a saturation curve, which is

considerably lower than the one of the first case. In general, the departure of the

population from the original settlement place tends to accelerate the convergence of

demand and supply. In some cases of very large refugee population, and fairly high

departure rate, the demand quickly drops below NT.

3.4.1.1 The “All stay” case

In Fig. 3.5, corresponding to “all stay” case, only the total population is influencing

the telephone demand. Demand is met rather slowly compared to the other cases,

because no refugees are leaving, i.e. actually increasing with the population and

economic growth. The Total Demand and the NT practically coincide after a 10-year

period, which is an indication of saturation.

Fig. 3.5

Time evolution of population, total demand and telephones (“All stay” case)

3.4.1.2 The “All leave” case

Fig. 3.6 represents the “all leave” case. The determining parameters are the initial

refugee population and the time of departure. A kink in the installed telephones NT

evolution curve appears, since all telephone needs are covered and demand is

“negative” with the refugee departure. The comparison between the curves for leave

1-year after and 5-years after shows that “negative” (i.e. the installed lines are more

than the needed ones) demand is higher and lasts more if the departure time is

delayed (when more phones will have been installed as these phones will not be


125

needed with the refugee departure). The demand will be even more negative for

higher initial refugee percentage. Again, the total demand and the NT practically

coincide after a 10-year period, which is an indication of saturation.

Fig. 3.6

Time evolution of population, total demand and telephones

(“All leave” case)

3.4.1.3 The “Exponential” case

Figures 3.7 and 3.8, correspond to an “exponential departure of refugees” case and

describe the evolution of total demand and installed telephones, depending on the

determining parameters, which are the initial refugee population and the rate of

refugee departure “a”.

In Fig. 3.7 the influence of the initial number of refugees is described. Except for very

low initial population (10%) of refugees, demand is met quickly. For very large

refugee population (NR≈N) we quickly have a “negative” demand due to population

departing. In this figure we assume a=0,5, which means that in 2-years time only one

third of the initial refugee population has remained in the initial settlement location.


126

Fig. 3.7

Time evolution of population and telephones

(“Exponential departure of refugees” case – influence of initial NR)

For the “exponential departure of refugees” case of Fig. 3.8 we assume again that

NR=30%. This figure shows the influence of the (assumed exponential) refugee

departure rate, which at the 30% refugee initial population is not pronounced.

Obviously, the larger parameter “a” means a slower departure and hence a slower

convergence of demand and supply. At 30% initial refugee population the ratio of

installed telephones NT to the total demand D remains practically constant for the

various values of “a”, which means that it is not too strongly dependent on “a”,

although the final demand and supply are.

The apparent “bottleneck” in Fig. 3.8 (i.e. the strange behaviour that the installed and

total demand curves, which were converging, temporarily diverge) around 15 years is

caused by our model assumption that the demand per inhabitant changes (increases)

discontinuously every five years.


127

Fig. 3.8

Time evolution of total demand and supplied telephones case

(“Exponential departure of refugees” – influence of “a”)

3.4.1.4 Comparison of “all stay”, “all leave” and “exponential” cases

Fig. 3.9 shows a comparison of the predictions for the three cases, with the

assumption of an initial refugee population of 30% and a = 0,5 in the “exponential”

case. In the “all stay” case, supply catches up with demand slowly. In the “all leave”

case, with a departure in one year, demand becomes negative, while in the “expo-

nential” case, demand and supply converge much quicker than in the “all stay” case.

Under the above assumptions, the resulting total demand and installed telephones for

the last two cases (“all leave” and “exponential departure rate”) have a lag compared

to the “all stay” case of the order of 20-25%. Fig 1.5, 3.6 and 3.9 show that, in the

long-term, these two cases do not have significant difference. This difference is

considerable only for the period immediately after the departure in the “all leave” case

and for the time period 2a in the “exponential rate” case. These two cases present a

considerable deviation from the “all stay” case concerning the total demand D and the

installed telephones NT. In all three cases, there is a saturation of the demand after

about 12 years.


128

Fig. 3.9 Comparison of the three cases

The two extreme cases, that “all refugees stay” or “all refugees leave” their initial

settlement location, are rather theoretical ones since refugees either try to adapt

themselves in a new environment or seek better conditions by emigrating inside or

outside the country according to various social factors (e.g. profession). Beyond these,

a state that exits a war will not be able to orderly relocate the refugee population and

prepare their new settlements in a short period. The “exponential” case seems to be

closer to the reality, since takes into consideration the above mentioned factors, but

still the fact that a constant intensity of departure is inherent in this scenario may lead

to deviations from reality. Another inherent deviation from reality is the fact that the

“exponential” case foresees that the refugees start leaving their original settlement

location from the first day.

3.4.1.5 Combined “all stay” and “Pareto” case

In this light, another case is also investigated, i.e. the case of a Pareto distribution (39)

for the departure rate. That is, during an initial (settlement) period tp (typically 1 year,

but longer period is also investigated) we assume an “all stay” case. Beyond this

point, the rate of refugee departure is given by the Pareto distribution in which the rate

of departure is not constant but variable, i.e. the variance is not equal to 0. The Pareto

distribution density function without upper limit is:

γ(t) = b*kb

*(t/tp) – (1+b)


129

The parameter b takes values between 1 and 2. In the case of an upper limit existence,

the parameter k is:

g/tp

k =

((g/tp)b-1)

1/b

where g is the upper limit of t, that is g = 20 years in our case. Then the Pareto

distribution density function takes the following form:

b*(g/tp)b

*(t/tp) – (1+b)

γ(t) =

(g/tp)b -1

The Pareto distribution density function, for times larger than 1 year, is shown in Fig

3.10. In this figure we can see that bkb represents the initial value of the distribution

and -(1+b) defines the speed of decay. In general, the Pareto distribution density

function is less steep than the corresponding exponential one.

γ(t)

bkb

t

tp g

Fig. 3.10

The case of Pareto rate of refugees’ departure

Fig. 3.11 depicts the evolution of refugee population NR in the forecasting period. The

curves present two distinct areas, a linear one and a Pareto one. The linear part

corresponds to the “all stay” case.

Two parameters influence the evolution of refugee population NR in this combined

case. The first is the initial period tp and the second is the parameter b. For the

parameter tp values of 1 year and 5 years have been selected as initial period. For the

parameter b the values 1, 1,5 and 2 have been selected to investigate its influence.

After about a 10 year period (independently of the initial 1 or 5 year period), the

parameter b does not influence considerably the evolution of refugee population NR.

In this figure, becomes obvious that the initial period influences the evolution of

refugee population NR much more significantly than the parameter b.


130

Fig. 3.11

Evolution of refugee population NR (Combined “all stay” and “Pareto” case)

Fig. 3.12 depicts the evolution of total population N in the forecasting period. The

curves present two distinct areas, a linear one and a Pareto one. The linear part

corresponds to the “all stay” case.

Again, two parameters influence the evolution of total population N in this combined



parameter b the values 1, 1,5 and 2 have been selected to investigate its influence. The

conclusions concerning the evolution of N are similar to those for the refugee

population NR.


131

Fig. 3.12

Evolution of total population N (Combined “all stay” and “Pareto” case)

Fig. 3.13 depicts the evolution of installed telephones NT in the forecasting period.

The curves present two distinct areas, one corresponding to the “all stay” case and

one corresponding to the Pareto.

Again, two parameters influence the evolution of total population N in this combined



parameter b the values 1, 1,5 and 2 have been selected to investigate its influence. The

conclusions concerning the evolution of NT are similar to those for the refugee

population NR.


132

Fig. 3.13

Evolution of installed telephones NT (Combined “all stay” and “Pareto” case)

Fig. 3.14 depicts the evolution of demand D in the forecasting period. The curves

present two distinct areas, a linear one and a Pareto one. The linear part coincides with

the corresponding initial linear part of demand D in Fig.3.5 of the “all stay” case.

Two parameters influence the evolution of demand in this combined case. The first is

the initial period tp and the second is the parameter b. For the parameter tp values of 1

year and 5 years have been selected as initial period. For the parameter b the values 1,

1,5 and 2 have been selected to investigate its influence. After a 10 year period

(independently of the initial 1 or 5 year period), the parameter b does not influence

considerably the evolution of demand D. In this figure, becomes obvious that the

initial period influences the evolution of demand much more significantly than the

parameter b. The resulting demand D after 20 years with tp=5years is about 15%

lower than that with tp=1year. This is in accordance with the above mathematical

description of Pareto distribution density function and describes the fact that in the 5

year period refugees created a significant demand that is afterwards abandoned.


133

Fig. 3.14

Evolution of demand D (Combined “all stay” and “Pareto” case)

Figures 3.15 and 3.16 show a comparison between the three different cases of “all

stay”, “exponential” and “combined all stay and Pareto”. In fig 3.15 we assumed as

tp=1 year, while in fig 3.16 we assumed as tp=5 years.

The effect of tp becomes obvious in fig 3.16 (tp=5 years), where the total population,

the number of refugees NR and the demand D get lower values of the corresponding

values for the exponential model (a=1). This is not taking place in Fig. 3.16, where

tp=1 year. This is due to the fact that in Pareto case the departure rate is less than that

of the exponential case, is not approaching zero and is not constant as in the

exponential case. As a result the total number of departing refugees is higher than that

for the exponential case.


134

Fig. 3.15

Comparison of “all stay”, “exponential” and “Combined (1 year)” cases

Fig. 3.16

Comparison of “all stay”, “exponential” and “Combined (5 years)” cases


135

3.4.2 The Influence of Refugees on Traffic Demand

The traffic per subscriber (calling rate) in the busy hour is the key-factor (see par.

2.3.3) on which the traffic forecasting is based. The total originating traffic for a

whole area, as well as the originating traffic for each exchange is estimated with

current statistics, using subscriber’s density and calling rates.

In case of lack of data, the subscribers are classified according to the various calling

rates. Examples of such classes (12ab) are given below, with the corresponding

normal range of values of total traffic per line for each class:

- Residential 0.020-0.110 erl

- Business 0.100-0.170 erl

- PBX (groups per line) 0.200-0.350 erl

- Coin boxes 0.100-0.300 erl

In the case of the “Republic”, we used as average originating or terminating traffic per

subscriber values ranging from 0,017Erl/sub for rural areas to 0,030Erl/sub for urban

areas, and of course we took in consideration the dilution effect.

Then, based on the forecasted number of subscribers of each terminal exchange, we

calculated the originating and terminating traffic of each exchange by multiplying the

average originating or terminating traffic per subscriber with the number of

subscribers of each terminal exchange. Finally, we distributed this traffic into

terminating or internal, long-distance and international ones. The whole procedure

indicates that the traffic is analogous to the number of subscribers and, consequently,

the refugee mobility influences the forecasted traffic in a direct way.

3.4.3 The Influence of Refugees on ISDN and New Services

ISDN permits the connection of PCs, X.25 terminals, fax group 3 or 4, analogue

telephones, digital ISDN videotelephone, ISDN data terminal, ISDN PABXs, host

computers, LANs, VPNs, etc. with the telecommunication network. The evolution of

the ISDN network and the application of teleservices and supplementary services will

mainly follow the implementation of a switching plan. The provision of ISDN-BRA is

addressed mainly to the residential subscribers, while the provision of ISDN-PRA is

addressed mainly to the business subscribers. The refugees belong to the residential

category and, consequently, their mobility affects the ISDN-BRA service. The BRA

penetration of table 2.21 is therefore according to the demand (D) of the selected

model.

As it is mentioned in par 2.4.3, for ISDN traffic forecast in the “Republic”, the PSTN

traffic estimated in par 2.3.3 will be expected. This is due to the fact that ISDN

subscribers result from PSTN subscriber conversion. The only additional type of

traffic results from the fact that ISDN subscribers use this service in order to be

connected to the Internet. Therefore, appropriate consideration must be given in the

switching and routing plans.


136

The provision of new telecommunication services, such as Value-Added services,

packet switched, frame relay, ATM, clear channel, etc. is addressed mainly to the

business subscribers. Therefore, the needs are not directly influenced by the mobility

of refugees, but they are influenced indirectly by the consequences of the refugee

mobility on the country’s economy.

3.4.4 The Influence of Refugees on Exchange Performance

The number of subscribers and therefore, the number of refugees present in an area,

influence directly not only the dimensioning of a telecommunication network, but also

the telecommunication equipment itself. A typical example is the call processing

capacity of digital exchanges. The ITU-T Recommendation Q.543 (40), dealing with

digital exchange performance objectives, describes the call processing behaviour of a

digital exchange. The total load YT of a digital exchange is constituted of an idle

portion (corresponding to basic operations independent of call attempts carried) plus a

second portion YCP, which depends on the call attempts offered in the exchange. Thus,

both YT and YCP are linear functions of the call attempts.

As the offered load increases beyond the engineered attempt capacity of the exchange,

the throughput capacity may show a behaviour presented by the curve A in the Fig.

3.17. If appropriate overload protection mechanisms (e.g. call gapping) are used, then

the throughput performance of the exchange should resemble the curve C of Fig. 3.17.

Fig. 3.17

Throughput performance according to ITU-T Recommendation Q.543

Appropriate measurements have been taken in an exchange of the “Country”

confirming fully the mentioned recommendation of ITU-T. Table 3.1 gives the

measurements of the total load YT and of call processing load YCP .


137

Table 3.1

Throughput performance of a digital exchange

BHCA

(x103)

YCall Processing

(mErl)

YTotal

(mErl)

0 0 216,5

3,4 10,3 247,9

29,9 90,2 306,7

44,0 132,7 363,1

59,9 180,4 394,1

79,8 239,1 460,0

89,9 267,7 467,9

118,4 350,5 547,1

138,7 408,7 603,2

165,6 485,6 669,6

179,7 525,0 690,3

200,0 582,9 754,4

220,3 639,0 796,5

239,7 693,3 831,5

247,7 714,9 866,5

257,8 743,5 889,7

269,6 777,1 904,5

The measurements are also shown in Fig. 3.18. In this figure we can see that the

behaviour of the exchange is coinciding with that described in Rec. Q. 543, which

states the digital exchange performance design objectives. Both curves for YT and YCP

have a linear part up to the region in which the exchange enters in the operation of

overload controls. The linear parts can be fitted by a least square fit with the

equations:

YT(mErl) = 245 + 2,47X(BHCA)

YCP(mErl) = 7 + 2,86X(BHCA)


138

CALL PROSSECING & TOTAL EXCHANGE CP LOAD

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

0

3,4

29,9 44

59,9

79,8

89,9

118

139

166

180

200

220

240

248

258

270

103 BHC

mE

rl YCP

Y TOTAL

Fig. 3.18

Measurement of call processing and total exchange Central Processor load

3.5 CONCLUSIONS

The main contribution of the present thesis can be summarized in the following three

domains:

a) We give the subscriber and traffic demand forecasting, applying a

methodology that complements the ITU-T forecasting rules, for countries

exiting from war. These countries have the special characteristics, which have

been taken into account:

1. There are no historical data.

2. There are no administrative or telecommunications data for the new

status after the war.

3. The network is partially destroyed.

4. There is redistribution of population expressed mainly by the presence

and mobility of refugees.

b) The proposed by Recommendation E.508 of ITU-T forecasting procedure

cannot be applied, as it is explained in par. 2.4. Therefore, we propose a new

method for the prediction of the ISDN subscribers, based upon the

comparative study with another country. The proposed method overcomes the

difficulty that we have to make the forecasting before the deployment of the

service, i.e. having null initial data because the service is not introduced. In

this case, the ISDN subscribers result from the PSTN ones. Moreover, the

Key-factors influencing the spread of the ISDN are examined. Such factors

are:


139

1. The tariff level.

2. The service availability.

3. The digitalisation rate.

c) Special care is given in the study of refugee mobility. Mathematical models

have been introduced examining the influence of refugees on the demand and

the number of installed telephones. These models are:

1. The “all stay” case.

2. The “all leave case.

3. The “exponential departure rate” case.

4. The combined “all stay” and “Pareto departure rate” case.

The first case is the upper limit solution, while the second one represents the

lower limit solution of the problem of refugee mobility influence. The third is

an intermediate case presenting certain inherent deviations from the reality

(see par 3.4.1.4).

An attempt to overcome these deviations is the fourth model in which for the

first period we apply the “all stay” model and then a “Pareto departure rate” is

applied. In the absence of actual data, it is not easy to decide in favour of one

or the other model, however, using the two extreme cases (“all stay” and “all

leave”) as limits one may expect an intermediate behaviour, such as the

“exponential” or the “combined all stay and Pareto”. Such intermediate

behaviour can be seen to converge, independently of the model chosen, after

an interval of about 10 years, for almost all reasonable models (i.e. excluding

the “combined all stay and Pareto” with tp=5years). For shorter times the

refugee evolution should be monitored more closely in order to optimise return

on investment from new equipment installation.


140

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141

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142

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THE ADAPTATION OF ITU-T FORECASTING RULES TO THE COUNTRIES UNDER SPECIAL CIRCUMSTANCES

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