The ACS and the 2010 Census Richard Lycan and Charles Rynerson Population Research Center Portland...

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The ACS and the 2010 The ACS and the 2010 Census Census Richard Lycan and Charles Rynerson Richard Lycan and Charles Rynerson Population Research Center Population Research Center Portland State University Portland State University GIS in Action GIS in Action March, 2011 March, 2011

Transcript of The ACS and the 2010 Census Richard Lycan and Charles Rynerson Population Research Center Portland...

The ACS and the 2010 The ACS and the 2010 CensusCensus

Richard Lycan and Charles RynersonRichard Lycan and Charles Rynerson

Population Research CenterPopulation Research Center

Portland State UniversityPortland State University

GIS in ActionGIS in Action

March, 2011March, 2011

►How many have made use of the 2010 How many have made use of the 2010 Census redistricting data?Census redistricting data?

►How many have made use of the 2009 How many have made use of the 2009 American Community Survey Data for American Community Survey Data for small areas: tracts, block groups, etc.?small areas: tracts, block groups, etc.?

►How do you like “American How do you like “American Factfinder”?Factfinder”?

►The PSU Population Research CenterThe PSU Population Research Center The Census State Data Center for OregonThe Census State Data Center for Oregon Provide population estimates for Oregon Provide population estimates for Oregon

cities and countiescities and counties Provide demographic services to various Provide demographic services to various

public and private organizations.public and private organizations. Offer courses in demography, applied Offer courses in demography, applied

demography.demography.►Dr. Sheila Martin, DirectorDr. Sheila Martin, Director

Dr. Jason Jurjevich Asst. Director for Dr. Jason Jurjevich Asst. Director for Population StudiesPopulation Studies

Charles Rynerson, Manager State Data Charles Rynerson, Manager State Data CenterCenter

Timeliness of topicTimeliness of topic

►Release of 2010 Census redistricting Release of 2010 Census redistricting data – data – Feb 2011 for OregonFeb 2011 for Oregon

►Forthcoming release of full 2010 Forthcoming release of full 2010 census data – census data – summer 2011summer 2011

►Release of 2005-2009 small area data Release of 2005-2009 small area data from American Community Survey – from American Community Survey – late 2010late 2010

The 2010 CensusThe 2010 Census

►Only short form census, long form Only short form census, long form questions move to ACSquestions move to ACS

►Content of questionnaire – 10 itemsContent of questionnaire – 10 items

Who lives in this house, apartment, … ?Who lives in this house, apartment, … ?

The gender, age, race, and Hispanic The gender, age, race, and Hispanic status of the occupants of the residencestatus of the occupants of the residence

Is the housing unit owned or rented?Is the housing unit owned or rented?

GeographiesGeographies

► 2010 Census data now available down to 2010 Census data now available down to census block level and for…. census block level and for….

► Tracts, block groups, cities, school districts, Tracts, block groups, cities, school districts, congressional and state legislative districtscongressional and state legislative districts

► Geographies based on the Master Address Geographies based on the Master Address File (MAF) and TIGERFile (MAF) and TIGER

► Boundary files for mapping under Boundary files for mapping under Geography section of www.census.govGeography section of www.census.gov

2010 Data Tables2010 Data Tables

► The redistricting dataThe redistricting data Population, race, Hispanic, age 18 and overPopulation, race, Hispanic, age 18 and over 5 tables 5 tables NowNow

► Summary File 1Summary File 1 The many combinations of gender, age, race, The many combinations of gender, age, race,

Hispanic, housing tenure, and household Hispanic, housing tenure, and household relationshipsrelationships

171 population and 56 housing tables 171 population and 56 housing tables This summerThis summer

Where to obtain?Where to obtain?

► All at All at www.census.gov

► American FactfinderAmerican Factfinder Two versions – new version better seach, mappingTwo versions – new version better seach, mapping Search, view, download, mapSearch, view, download, map Best for few tables and geographies (60,000 limit)Best for few tables and geographies (60,000 limit)

► FTP down loadFTP down load Good for multiple tables, many geographiesGood for multiple tables, many geographies

► Summary file downloadSummary file download Good for many levels of geographyGood for many levels of geography

The 2005-2009 ACS ReleaseThe 2005-2009 ACS Release

► The ACS is the replacement for the “long The ACS is the replacement for the “long form” census – the source of most socio-form” census – the source of most socio-economic detaileconomic detail

► Data published for 1, 3, and 5 year Data published for 1, 3, and 5 year accumulations of survey responsesaccumulations of survey responses

► The 2005-2009 release is the first that The 2005-2009 release is the first that provides “small area” data provides “small area” data

Down to tract, block groupDown to tract, block group

Became available in late 2010Became available in late 2010

Subject Matter ContentSubject Matter Content► Mostly same as 2000 census long form surveyMostly same as 2000 census long form survey

48 questions pertaining to each person in 48 questions pertaining to each person in household: age, sex, education, income, household: age, sex, education, income, occupation, …..occupation, …..

20 questions about the housing unit: type, when 20 questions about the housing unit: type, when built, autos, value, heating costs, ….built, autos, value, heating costs, ….

► A few questions changedA few questions changed Migration, marital status, disability, plumbing, rent, Migration, marital status, disability, plumbing, rent,

real estate taxes, telephone service, year moved real estate taxes, telephone service, year moved in, year structure builtin, year structure built

See “Comparing 2009 American Community See “Comparing 2009 American Community Survey Data”on census website.Survey Data”on census website.

14 pages

What the Census and What the Census and ACS Have in CommonACS Have in Common

► Sample based on Master Address File (MAF)Sample based on Master Address File (MAF)

► Place attribution based on Tiger geographiesPlace attribution based on Tiger geographies

► Use mail out survey formUse mail out survey form

► Use telephone and home visit follow upsUse telephone and home visit follow ups

► 2000 Census and ACS have similar 2000 Census and ACS have similar questionnaire contentquestionnaire content

► Data published to tract and block group Data published to tract and block group levellevel

How ACS Differs from How ACS Differs from Long Form CensusLong Form Census

► Every 10 years……………….Every 10 years……………….► Temp hires…………………….Temp hires…………………….► Short questionnaire………..Short questionnaire………..► Don’t miss anyone………….Don’t miss anyone………….► 15+- % sample……………..15+- % sample……………..► Point in time estimate…….Point in time estimate…….► Adjusted to short form…..Adjusted to short form…..► Go figure……………………...Go figure……………………...► Long waits for data……..…Long waits for data……..…

► Continuing surveyContinuing survey► Professional interviewersProfessional interviewers► Long questionnaireLong questionnaire► Get complete responsesGet complete responses► 1.5% / year effective sample1.5% / year effective sample► Period estimatePeriod estimate► Adjusted to census Adjusted to census

estimatesestimates► Census publishes sample Census publishes sample

errorerror► Early availability of dataEarly availability of data

Census ACS

Where to Obtain ACS DataWhere to Obtain ACS Data

►At At www.census.gov

►For data down to tract level you can use For data down to tract level you can use American FactFinderAmerican FactFinder (currently the (currently the legacy version).legacy version).

►Or for large numbers of geographies Or for large numbers of geographies you can use the you can use the FTP DownloadFTP Download method. method.

►For block group data you need to use For block group data you need to use the the Summary FileSummary File access method. access method.

Two Map ExamplesTwo Map Examples

►Changing travel time to workChanging travel time to work based on based on the 2000 Census and the 2005-2009 the 2000 Census and the 2005-2009 ACS at the census tract levelACS at the census tract level

►Distribution of Hispanic populationDistribution of Hispanic population in in 2010 and location of increases in 2010 and location of increases in Hispanic population from 2000-2010 Hispanic population from 2000-2010 based on the 2010 Census redistricting based on the 2010 Census redistricting data at the block leveldata at the block level

► Noticeable diffe-Noticeable diffe-rences over time rences over time period, e.g. west of period, e.g. west of BeavertonBeaverton

► However on a tract However on a tract by tract basis only by tract basis only a few of the a few of the changes over the changes over the time period are time period are significant at the significant at the 80% confidence 80% confidence level.level.

► Also, the census Also, the census question is question is somewhat somewhat burdensome, and burdensome, and some do not some do not answer.answer.

Change in Travel Time to Work – ACS and Census

Imputation ErrorsImputation Errors► Imputation is “educated guessing” by the Census Bureau Imputation is “educated guessing” by the Census Bureau

where respondents left questions blank or incomplete.where respondents left questions blank or incomplete.

► The ACS used more tenacious follow up to get the partially The ACS used more tenacious follow up to get the partially filled out questionnaires completed but devoted less effort …filled out questionnaires completed but devoted less effort …

► to getting all of the questionnaires returned.to getting all of the questionnaires returned.

► The method of imputation used is called “hot deck” The method of imputation used is called “hot deck” imputation.imputation.

Where a response to a question is missing or incomplete a Where a response to a question is missing or incomplete a response from a “nearby” respondent is substituted .response from a “nearby” respondent is substituted .

For “thin” universes “nearby” may be farther away.For “thin” universes “nearby” may be farther away.

Imputation tends to lessen the variance in the data.Imputation tends to lessen the variance in the data.

► Let’s look at a couple of examplesLet’s look at a couple of examples

Item Sex Age RaceHispanic Or Latino

Origin Place Of Birth

Means Of Transportation To

Work Place Of WorkPrivate Vehicle

Occupancy

Time Leaving Home To Go To

WorkTravel Time To

Work

ACS 0.19 1.02 1.53 1.50 4.79 3.47 4.84 4.52 9.66 6.62Census 0.70 2.26 2.60 2.87 8.82 6.76 8.68 9.02 13.84 10.75

ACS % of Census 27.4 44.9 58.8 52.0 54.3 51.3 55.7 50.1 69.8 61.6

Item Relationship

Grandparents Living With

Grandchildren Under 18 Years

Length Of Time Grandparent

Responsible For Own

Grandchildren Under 18 Years

For The Population 30

Years And Over

Marital Status For The Population 15

Years And Over

Grade Enrolled For The

Population 3 Years And Over

Enrolled In School

Educational Attainment For

The Population 25 Years And Over

Language Status For The

Population 5 Years And Over

Ability To Speak English For The

Population 5 Years And Over

Individual's Income In The

Past 12 Months For The

Population 15 Years And Over -

Percent Of Income Imputed

Household Income In The Past 12

Months - Percent Of Income

Imputed

ACS 0.79 0.37 12.85 1.58 4.46 2.90 1.87 3.98 13.55 13.59Census 1.90 4.88 16.83 2.18 8.31 6.30 5.24 10.21 28.05 31.46

ACS % of Census 41.5 7.6 76.4 72.5 53.7 46.1 35.7 39.0 48.3 43.2

Item

Family Income In The Past 12

Months - Percent Of Income

Imputed

Nonfamily Household Income

In The Past 12 Months - Percent

Of Income Imputed

Earnings In The Past 12 Months

For The Population 16

Years And Over - Percent Of

Earnings Imputed

Veteran Status For The Population 18

Years And Over

Period Of Military Service For

Civilian Veterans 18 Years And

Over

Employment Status For The Population 16

Years And Over

Work Status In The Past 12

Months For The Population 16

Years And Over

Usual Hours Worked Per Week

In The Past 12 Months For The

Population 16 Years And Over

Weeks Worked In The Past 12

Months For The Population 16

Years And Over

Industry For The Civilian Employed

Population 16 Years And Over

ACS 12.27 15.26 10.77 2.21 4.43 2.84 3.23 5.68 5.55 3.70Census 30.92 31.73 19.50 7.17 9.33 9.06 8.46 16.61 18.35 9.14

ACS % of Census 39.7 48.1 55.2 30.8 47.4 31.3 38.1 34.2 30.2 40.4

Item

Occupation For The Civilian

Employed Population 16

Years And Over

Class Of Worker For The Civilian

Employed Population 16

Years And Over Kitchen FacilitiesHouse Heating

Fuel Vehicles AvailableTelephone Service

Available Rent Asked Value Tenure

Mortgage Status And Selected

Monthly Owner Costs

ACS 3.82 3.47 1.12 1.79 0.84 0.57 23.83 7.53 0.55 28.67Census 9.23 11.02 2.86 7.10 5.51 3.61 34.53 10.79 3.31 53.99

ACS % of Census 41.3 31.4 39.0 25.3 15.3 15.8 69.0 69.8 16.6 53.1

Item Vacancy Status Rooms Units In StructureYear Structure

BuiltYear Householder

Moved Into Unit Bedrooms Plumbing Facilities

ACS 2.94 5.37 1.18 10.85 2.22 2.40 0.93Census 0.34 6.23 3.19 9.45 5.04 8.59 2.84

ACS % of Census 852.7 86.2 37.1 114.8 44.1 28.0 32.7

► Large imputation error in red, small in blueLarge imputation error in red, small in blue

ACS 0.19 1.02 1.53 1.50 4.79 3.47 4.84 4.52 9.66 6.62Census 0.70 2.26 2.60 2.87 8.82 6.76 8.68 9.02 13.84 10.75

Item Relationship

Grandparents Living With

Grandchildren Under 18 Years

Length Of Time Grandparent

Responsible For Own

Grandchildren Under 18 Years

For The Population 30

Years And Over

Marital Status For The Population 15

Years And Over

Grade Enrolled For The

Population 3 Years And Over

Enrolled In School

ACS 0.79 0.37 12.85 1.58 4.46 2.90 1.87 3.98 13.55 13.59Census 1.90 4.88 16.83 2.18 8.31 6.30 5.24 10.21 28.05 31.46

ACS % of Census 41.5 7.6 76.4 72.5 53.7 46.1 35.7 39.0 48.3 43.2

Item

Family Income In The Past 12

Months - Percent Of Income

Imputed

Nonfamily Household Income

In The Past 12 Months - Percent

Of Income Imputed

Earnings In The Past 12 Months

For The Population 16

Years And Over - Percent Of

Earnings Imputed

Veteran Status For The Population 18

Years And Over

Period Of Military Service For

Civilian Veterans 18 Years And

Over

ACS 12.27 15.26 10.77 2.21 4.43 2.84 3.23 5.68 5.55 3.70Census 30.92 31.73 19.50 7.17 9.33 9.06 8.46 16.61 18.35 9.14

ACS % of Census 39.7 48.1 55.2 30.8 47.4 31.3 38.1 34.2 30.2 40.4

Item

Occupation For The Civilian

Employed Population 16

Years And Over

Class Of Worker For The Civilian

Employed Population 16

Years And Over Kitchen FacilitiesHouse Heating

Fuel Vehicles Available Rent Asked Value Tenure

ACS 3.82 3.47 1.12 1.79 0.84 0.57 23.83 7.53 0.55 28.67Census 9.23 11.02 2.86 7.10 5.51 3.61 34.53 10.79 3.31 53.99

ACS 2.94 5.37 1.18 10.85 2.22 2.40 0.93Census 0.34 6.23 3.19 9.45 5.04 8.59 2.84

ACSCensusA/C %

► The imputation rate was high for certain census The imputation rate was high for certain census questions, particularly those relating to income and questions, particularly those relating to income and poverty statuspoverty status

Item Sex Age RaceHispanic Or Latino

Origin Place Of Birth

Means Of Transportation To

Work Place Of Work

ACS 0.19 1.02 1.53 1.50 4.79 3.47 4.84 4.52 9.66 6.62Census 0.70 2.26 2.60 2.87 8.82 6.76 8.68 9.02 13.84 10.75

ACS % of Census 27.4 44.9 58.8 52.0 54.3 51.3 55.7 50.1 69.8 61.6

Item Relationship

Grandparents Living With

Grandchildren Under 18 Years

Length Of Time Grandparent

Responsible For Own

Grandchildren Under 18 Years

For The Population 30

Years And Over

Marital Status For The Population 15

Years And Over

Grade Enrolled For The

Population 3 Years And Over

Enrolled In School

Educational Attainment For

The Population 25 Years And Over

ACS 0.79 0.37 12.85 1.58 4.46 2.90 1.87 3.98 13.55 13.59Census 1.90 4.88 16.83 2.18 8.31 6.30 5.24 10.21 28.05 31.46

ACS 12.27 15.26 10.77 2.21 4.43 2.84 3.23 5.68 5.55 3.70Census 30.92 31.73 19.50 7.17 9.33 9.06 8.46 16.61 18.35 9.14

ACS 3.82 3.47 1.12 1.79 0.84 0.57 23.83 7.53 0.55 28.67Census 9.23 11.02 2.86 7.10 5.51 3.61 34.53 10.79 3.31 53.99

ACS 2.94 5.37 1.18 10.85 2.22 2.40 0.93Census 0.34 6.23 3.19 9.45 5.04 8.59 2.84

ACS

CensusA/C %

► For simpler questions such as age, sex, and race For simpler questions such as age, sex, and race most respondents answered the mail out most respondents answered the mail out questionnaire and no phone or home visit follow up questionnaire and no phone or home visit follow up was needed resulting in low imputation rates.was needed resulting in low imputation rates.

► However, even for these questions the imputation However, even for these questions the imputation rate was lower for the ACS than for the Census.rate was lower for the ACS than for the Census.

Imputation Has Its GeographyImputation Has Its Geography► There are tables that There are tables that

show the imputation show the imputation rate for various rate for various census questions.census questions.

► Here for example is Here for example is the map of percent the map of percent imputed for imputed for “residence one year “residence one year previous”, which previous”, which ranges up to 20% for ranges up to 20% for the Portland Metro the Portland Metro Area.Area.

► In the dark brown In the dark brown areas the ACS survey areas the ACS survey was unable to was unable to determine previous determine previous residence and residence and considerable considerable imputation was used.imputation was used.

Residence One Year Previous

Back to the 2010 CensusBack to the 2010 Census

► This map is generated from This map is generated from data from the 2000 Census data from the 2000 Census and the redistricting data and the redistricting data from the 2010 Census, using from the 2010 Census, using block level data.block level data.

► Limited number of tables in Limited number of tables in the redistricting data.the redistricting data.

► There are no problems of There are no problems of sampling error as the data sampling error as the data are from an enumeration, are from an enumeration, not a sample survey.not a sample survey.

► Other sources of error?Other sources of error?

Missed householdsMissed households

All persons not listed by All persons not listed by respondentrespondent

Hispanic status incorrectly Hispanic status incorrectly identified by respondentidentified by respondent

Incomplete response, Incomplete response, imputation of dataimputation of data

Hispanic Population

ResourcesResources► Use the Use the

Census Census FactFinder FactFinder search tools search tools to find, view, to find, view, and and download download data.data.

► Factfinder2 is Factfinder2 is more more comprehensicomprehensive for ve for search, but search, but limited for limited for large large downloads.downloads.

► Look at Look at “Compass” “Compass” publications publications on the on the American American Community Community Survey.Survey.

www.pdx.edu/prc

► Visit the PSU Visit the PSU Population Population Research Research Center Center Website.Website.

► This paper This paper will be found will be found there underthere under

“ “news and news and presentationpresentations”.s”.

Richard Lycan, [email protected] Rynerson, [email protected]