The 7th UASA Employment report. · In 2008 we believe that employment growth will still be...

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The 7 th UASA Employment report. © economists.co.za

Transcript of The 7th UASA Employment report. · In 2008 we believe that employment growth will still be...

Page 1: The 7th UASA Employment report. · In 2008 we believe that employment growth will still be positive, but closer to 1,5% ... Matric NTC l NTC II NTC III Certificate with less than

The 7th UASA Employment report.

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Page 2: The 7th UASA Employment report. · In 2008 we believe that employment growth will still be positive, but closer to 1,5% ... Matric NTC l NTC II NTC III Certificate with less than

� The Big Company Survey.� Salary increases and employment forecasts.

� What determines your worth?� Education.� Field of study.� Population group.� Age.� Area.� Union membership.� Own Business.� Firm size.

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9.5%

8.5%

9.3%

7.3%

9.2%

11.8%

9.7% 9.9%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

10.0%

11.0%

12.0%

13.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

% Annual Salary Increases

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Page 4: The 7th UASA Employment report. · In 2008 we believe that employment growth will still be positive, but closer to 1,5% ... Matric NTC l NTC II NTC III Certificate with less than

� The average big company salary is now R13500 per month.

� The average wage increase for 2007 was 9,2% - which was 2,7% higher than the average CPIX for 2007.

� We expect salary increases to average nearly 12% this year, as higher inflation makes for high salary increases. � Many wage agreements are CPIX plus 1% or 2%

plus productivity increases.

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� Employment growth slowed to 2,3% in 2007 but is still positive.� The 2005-6 highpoints of over 3,5% will be

difficult to achieve in the near future.� Salary strain on commission earners at present

� In 2008 we believe that employment growth will still be positive, but closer to 1,5%� We are having difficulties due to the impact of

higher rates and the electricity crises - but the impact is difficult to quantify

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� Average minimum wages are just over R2500 (including domestic workers) and over R2700 (excluding domestic workers).� The average increase of minimum wages was

9,1% - slightly lower than overall big company increases.

� We expect Minimum wages to increase by over 11% this year due to bargaining council and Union wage contracts of CPIX plus increases.

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Education, population, province, firm size, etc.

Eight big factors that influence Pay

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No schoolingGrade 0Grade 1 Grade 2 Grade 3 Grade 4Grade 5 Grade 6 Grade 7

Grade 8 Grade 9

Grade 10 Grade 11

MatricNTC l

NTC IINTC III

Certificate with less than Grade 12 Diploma with less than Grade 12 Certificate with Grade 12 / Std 10

Diploma with Grade 12 Bachelors Degree

Degree and DiplomaHonours

Higher Degree

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� The greatest divide between earnings levels due to schooling is between those who have Matriculated and those who have only completed grade 11� One salary nearly doubles between grade 11 and Matric.

� After completing a bachelors degree, your salary rises by over 350% when compared to that of a Matriculant� Assuming that one completes a degree in around three

and a half years – each year of tertiary education equates to around 12 years of schooling in real life earnings

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� Over a normal lifespan a person with a degree earns a 308% higher return than a person with just matric.

� The person with Matric earns a 98% higher return than someone with grade 11. A mariculant also earns a return 221% greater than that of someone without schooling – assuming that the person without schooling works for five years longer!

� A person with a Masters or Doctoral degree earns a total lifespan return that is 432% greater than that earned by someone with only a Matric – even if they work 8 fewer years

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� All people with an undergraduate qualification earn a further return of nearly 24% over someone with only a Matric - as they are less likely to be unemployed over the course of their working life.� This increases the total likely return for obtaining a degree

to over 380%.� A post grad earns a life time return nearly 540% higher -

despite working eight years less.� Putting this into context: Matric lifetime earnings (without

inflation) will be around R4 million and on same basis post grad will earn nearly R24 million over their working life.▪ Remember however that post grad works eight years less

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� Someone with no schooling will earn just over R1,15 million in their lifetime - assuming they work 50 years.

� Someone with a masters degree will work 37 years and earn about R24 million. 21 times more income over a lifetime!� But the person with no schooling has a 30% chance of

unemployment while someone with a masters less than 5%.

� So actual working years end up being similar.� But the non working years are probably more joyful

(studying) vs. Unemployment

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Services

Physical planning and construction

Communication studies and language

Education, training and development

Health sciences and social services

Post Matric *

Human and social studies

Culture and arts

Manufacturing, engineering and technology

Physical, mathematical, computer and life …

Agriculture and nature conservation

Business, commerce and management studies

Law, military science and security

* Services includes hospitality and retail

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*

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� Law, business and agricultural studies are seen as the better-paid fields.

� Services lag quite dramatically - but one must remember that the hospitality and retail sectors make up much of this sector and this is governed by department of labour laws.� A typical service field of study earns around 48%

of a business related field.� Labour laws seem to hurt the higher educated

more than the semi- and unskilled.

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� A business owner typically gets 14% more than someone working for someone else.� This could be higher in the formal sector but

probably not by more than 50%.� Around 85% of the employed workforce works for

someone else.� Nearly one in four white males work for

themselves, while one in five Asian males as well as white females work for themselves.

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� The white population group has the highest income which is about 450% more than black income and 400% more than coloured income.� However the median salary of coloured people is

lower than that of black people, (Median is where the 50th person out of 100 would be and is different to average.)

� Asians get nearly 70% the earning of whites.

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15 - 19 years

20 - 24 years

25 - 29 years

30 - 34 years

35 - 39 years

40 - 44 years

45 - 49 years

50 - 54 years

55 - 59 years

60 - 64 years

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� At the age of 40 to 44 a typical worker earns their highest income - while in the younger age groups the pay is less than one third of the 40 year old group.

� After age 44 income remains high but slowly declines relative to that of the 40 to 44 year old group.

� A typical 24 year old earns about 45% of a 44 year old while a 30 year old would earn 83% of the 44 year old.

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Eastern Cape

KwaZulu-Natal

Mpumalanga

Western Cape

SA

Limpopo

North West

Northern Cape

Free State

Gauteng

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� Eastern Cape earnings per employee is only 60% of that in Gauteng, while the Free State has the second highest earnings.� This was surprising but the fact is that

unemployment levels are higher in the Free state and much lower in the Western Cape so the overall level of income in the Western Cape would be higher.

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36.4%

25.3%

16.8%

21.6%

Micro

Small

Medium

Large

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� 36% of employed people work for micro enterprises (less than 5 employees) and on average they earn only 39% of what workers in large firms (over 50 employees) get.

� Small firms (less than 20 employees) employ just over 25% of workers and have the second lowest pay but it is over 21% higher than the average.

� Large firms pay over 55% more than average.� Government generally pays 180% more than

average (when filtered out) so that would also be a big difference.

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� Workers who belong to a trade union earn 108% more than the average worker.

� Worker not represented by trade unions earn only 70% of the national average salary.

� Basically worker who belong to a trade union earn three times more than workers who are not represented.� This however may also have to do with firm size

as trade unions generally focus on larger firms.

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� Education makes the biggest difference by far.� Population group is the second biggest factor.� Age is the third biggest factor.� Firm size is the fourth biggest factor

� Government actual average is higher than big firm pay.

� Field of study is fifth.� Union membership is the sixth biggest factor.� Where you stay is the next factor followed by

whether you own your own business.

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� The average large company director in SA got about R474 000 per month while the worker got R11500 per month.

� Therefore the average director for these companies got 41,3 times more than the average employee they employed.

� However in other countries similar if not even bigger differences remain.

� Very few people get to be directors as only one in 8000 working people get to be directors.

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Thank you

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