The 5th AIM International WorkshopThe 5th AIM International Workshop

March 24March 24--25, 2000 25, 2000 NIES, NIES, TsukubaTsukuba, Japan, Japan

Activities in the Fiscal Year 1999 in KoreaActivities in the Fiscal Year 1999 in Korea

Tae Yong JungTae Yong JungIGES, JapanIGES, Japan

Dong Dong KunKun LeeLeeSangmyung Sangmyung University, KoreaUniversity, Korea

JeongJeong Ah KwonAh KwonSangmyungSangmyung University, KoreaUniversity, Korea

Contents

AIM/Korea Emission ModelNew Studies in FY 1999Further Studies

Fields in Residential Sector

Cooling Air-Con(2), Fan

Main Heating & Hot WaterBoiler(6), Insulation, Solar Energy

Auxiliary HeatingHeater(4), Electric Pad

CookingOven Range(2)

Fields in Residential Sector

LightingLamp(5)

Electric AppliancesTelevision(2), Refrigerator(2), Washing Machine(2), Personal Computer(2)

Fields in Commercial Sector

Cooling Co-Gen.(2), Air-Con(3), Cooling & Heating(4)

Main Heating & Hot WaterCo-Gen.(2), Boiler(7), Cooling & Heating(4)

Auxiliary HeatingHeater(6)

CookingOven Range(7)

LightingLamp(4)

Fields in Transportation Sector

Passenger TransportPassenger Cars(15)Jeeps(2)Taxis(8)Buses(5)Rail WaysCoastal Water PassengerAir Transports

Freight TransportTrucks(12)Rail WaysCoastal Water FreightsAir Transports

Fields in Steel IndustryCoke OvenCoke Quenching EquipmentSintering MachineBlast FurnaceSteel Making ProcessHot & Cold RollingAnnealingSteamElectricity

Fields in Cement Industry

Portland ClinkeringPortland Clinkering Coking ProcessPortland Cement Finishing Process Slag Crushing Process Electricity

Fields in Petrochemical Industry

Ethylene ProductionLow Density Polyethylene(LDP)High Density Polyethylene(HDP)Polypropylene ProductionSteam Generating ProcessElectricity

Brief Economic Outlook

Macro Economic ConditionsFinancial Crisis (Dec. 1997: -5.9% GDP Growth)Quick Recovery (1999: over 6% GDP Growth)

Major Economic ReformingIndustrial Structural Changes: (IT industries are booming.)Reforming Financial Sector: (Merging Bank/Financial Industries)Moving from Big Conglomerate to Medium/Small Size Enterprises

Brief Economic Outlook

Revising Economic ForecastsGDP Growth rate is coming back to normal trend.Less Energy Intensive Industries in Manufacturing SectorMore Service Industries

Scenarios (1995 -2020)

BaU: Business-as-UsualFIX: No Technological ChangesTAX: Carbon Tax (30,000 Won/TC, from 2000)SUBSIDY: TAX + Subsidy (from 2001)

※ (Exchange Rate: 1$ = 1,200Won)

Total CO2 Emission in Korea- BaU Scenario -

0

40

80

120

160

200

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Iron & Steel Cement Petro-chemical Other Ind.Residential Commercial Transportation

Mt-C

Residential Sector- CO2 Emission Projection -

18.0

22.0

26.030.0

34.0

38.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BAU FIX SUBSIDY TAX

Mt-CFIX

SUBSIDY

BAUTAX

Residential Sector- CO2 Emission Reduction by Scenarios -

-6-4-202468

10

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

FIX TAX SUBSIDY

Mt-C

Commercial Sector- CO2 Emission Projection -

7.0

11.0

15.0

19.0

23.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BAU FIX SUBSIDY TAX

Mt-C

FIXBAUTAX

SUBSIDY

Commercial Sector- CO2 Emission Reduction by Scenarios -

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

FIX TAX SUBSIDY

Mt-C

Transportation Sector- CO2 Emission Projection -

10.0

16.0

22.0

28.0

34.0

40.0

46.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BAU FIX SUBSIDY TAX

Mt-C

FIXBAUTAX

SUBSIDY

Transportation Sector- CO2 Emission Reduction by Scenarios -

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

FIX TAX SUBSIDY

Mt-C

Steel Industry- CO2 Emission Projection -

17.0

19.0

21.0

23.0

25.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BAU FIX SUBSIDY TAX

Mt-C

BAUFIX

TAXSUBSIDY

Steel Industry- CO2 Emission Reduction by Scenarios -

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

FIX TAX SUBSIDY

Mt-C

Cement Industry- CO2 Emission Projection -

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BAU FIX SUBSIDY TAX

Mt-CFIXBAUTAX

SUBSIDY

Cement Industry- CO2 Emission Reduction by Scenarios -

-0.20

0.20.40.60.8

11.2

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

FIX TAX SUBSIDY

Mt-C

Petrochemical Industry- CO2 Emission Projection -

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

19.0

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

BAU FIX SUBSIDY TAX

Mt-CFIX

BAUTAXSUBSIDY

Petrochemical Industry- CO2 Emission Reduction by Scenarios -

-3-2.5

-2-1.5

-1-0.5

00.5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

FIX TAX SUBSIDY

Mt-C

New Studies in FY 1999

Residential SectorApplication of Mini-AIM

Transportation SectorFurther Simulation

Industrial SectorBaU Projection for Other Industries

Transformation Sector (Power Gen., Town Gas)This sector is integrated in each final end-use sector.Now, all sectors in AIM/Korea Model can be run simultaneously.

Residential Sector (New Studies)

Application of Mini-AIMCooking: To control flame of oven range,...Cooling: To set up higher cooling temperature,…Lighting: To use efficient lamp,…Cooling: To set up higher cooling temperature,…Main Heating: To set up lower heating temperature,…Aux. Heating: InsulationTV: To plug off when not watching itRefrigerator: To reduce the frequency of open and close it

Residential Sector (New Studies)- CO2 Emission Reduction by Mini-AIM -

-700-600-500-400-300-200-100

0Cooking Cooling Refrigerator Aux. Heating TV Lighting Main Heating

50% Action 100% Action

Th. T-C

Transportation Sector (New Studies)- Further Simulation -

BaU: Business-as-UsualSc 1: Extension of Payback Period (5 Years)Sc 2: Extension of Payback Period (8 Years)Sc 3: TAX: Carbon Tax (300,000 Won/TC, from 2000)Sc 4: Subsidy on Only CNG Bus (+ 15 persons)

(15,000 thousand Won)Sc 5: Subsidy on Only CNG Bus (+ 15 persons)

(20,000 thousand Won)

Transportation Sector (New Studies)- Further Simulation -

10162228

344046

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Bau Sc1 Sc2 Sc3 Sc4 Sc5

Mt-C

Transportation Sector (New Studies)- CO2 Emission Reduction by Scenarios -

01234567

2000 2010 2020

Sc1 Sc2 Sc3 Sc4 Sc5

Mt-C

Major Findings

CO2 Emissions will continue to increase.Transportation Sector: Fastest Growing

New technologies are still expensive.Marginal Cost Evaluation: Critical Factor

Appropriate policy measures are necessary.Carbon Tax, Subsidy, Energy Efficiency Improvement Programs, Fuel Substitution...

Major Findings

Application of Mini-AIM is useful for climate policy formation.

Assessment of Specific Action Plans

Choice of Policy in Transportation SectorSubsidy (30,000 Won/TC for all transport modes)

vs.Subsidy (20,000 thousand Won for CNG bus)

Further Studies

To Identify the Target SectorsTo Minimize the Economic Impact

To Develop More Sector-specific ScenariosFuel SubstitutionsMarket InterventionsEnergy Efficiency Improvement ProgramsInternational Cooperation

Further Studies

Application of Mini-AIM to Other SectorsTo Develop Action Programs

Scenario Analysis for Other IndustriesAssessment for Integrated Policies

Global and Local Environment PoliciesEnvironment and Economic Policies

Updating Technology Database