The 2030 Development Agenda: Tackling regional challenges Ben Slay Senior advisor UNDP Regional...
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Transcript of The 2030 Development Agenda: Tackling regional challenges Ben Slay Senior advisor UNDP Regional...
The 2030 Development Agenda: Tackling regional challenges
Ben Slay
Senior advisorUNDP Regional Bureau
for Europe and CIS
Istanbul16 December 2015
Key issues and messages
• Lessons learned from region’s MDG experience
• Implications for SDGs• Emerging “issues of transition”– Greater complexity – National adaptation, prioritization, and “cherry
picking”– Statistical capacity– Staggered start
• Need for rapid, cohesive, integrated UN approach
MDGs in the region: Lessons learned
• National post-2015 consultations (2013-2014)– Held in virtually all
“programme countries”• Regional post-2015
consultation (November 2013)
MDGs in Europe and Central Asia: An uneasy fit
• Weak identification with the “South”– European- , Russo-centric country orientation– Extreme poverty, basic services—not (seen as)
major challenges• 20+ new states emerge after “MDG baseline
year” 1990, facing major issues of:– Governance, human rights– Conflict/post-conflict– Environmental sustainability (in poorer countries)– Institutional capacity (especially for data/statistics)
• ODA inflows relatively modest
MDGs’ weak environmental sustainability dimensions matter—Water . . .
Turkmenist
an
Uzbekis
tan
Tajikist
an
Armenia
Azerb
aijan
Kyrgyzs
tan
Kazakh
stan
World
113%
101%
51%
37% 35% 33%
19%
8%
Aral Sea: 1989-2008Water withdrawals as a share of total fresh
water resources (2007-2011, HDRO data)
. . . Land, energy, and health
Armenia
Kyrgyzs
tanW
orld
Tajikist
an
Turkmenist
anSe
rbia
Moldova
Kazakh
stan
Uzbekis
tan
10% 10% 10% 11% 11%
19%
22%24%
27%
World
Azerb
aijan
Uzbekis
tan
Turkmenist
an
Tajikist
an
258 269
325
449
551
140 132
192
2
343
Unsafe water, sanitation Indoor air pollution
Shares of population living on degraded
land (2010)
Numbers of child deaths per 100,000 children (2004 data)
Source: UNDP Human Development Report Office.
7
The “governance disconnect”—also an issue
• Popular insurrections unseat governments . . .– Ukraine (2014, 2005)– Kyrgyzstan (2010, 2005)– Moldova (2009)– Georgia (2003)– Albania (1997)
• . . . Even as these countries are “on track to achieve the MDGs”
“Tyranny of averages”: National data often conceal pockets of poverty, vulnerability
BiH FYRoM Serbia Montenegro Albania
62%
55%
43%
37%
27%
54%53%
49%44%
23%
29%31%
23%20%
13%
Youth
Roma
National
Sources: ILO, national statistical offices, UNDP/EU/World Bank Roma vulnerability database. 2011 data.
Unemployment rates disaggregated by age, ethnicity
MDGs in the region: Pluses
• “Adaptation” of MDGs, targets, indicators:– “Nationalization”:• MDG targets, indicators redefined to better reflect
national specifics• Virtually all countries in the region did this
– “Localization”: Sub-national disaggregation– Result: More national relevance• But less international comparability
• MDG needs assessments/costing estimates– Helped with sectoral resource mobilization
• MAFs: Joint UN responses
Dignityend poverty, fight inequality
Peopleensure healthy lives, knowledge, inclusion of women and children
Planetprotect our ecosystems for
all societies and our children
Partnership catalyse global solidarity for sustainable
development
Justicepromote safe and peaceful societies, and
strong institutions
Prosperitygrow a strong, inclusive and
transformative economy
2000 2015 2030
From MDGs to SDGs: Continuity and change
MDGs: “Reduce poverty, extend basic services in poor countries”
SDGs: “Sustainable
development in all countries”
Issues of transition: “Complexity”,“adaptation”, “prioritization”, “cherry picking”• Many middle income-countries adapted MDG targets
and indicators to reflect national specifics– Advantage: More national relevance– Disadvantage: Less international comparability
• There are 409 sustainable development goals, targets, and (proposed*) indicators Complexity
MDGs v. SDGs: The numbers game
Goals Targets Indicators
MDGs 8 21 60
SDGs 17 169 223*
– Will other (new) ones be “adapted”? Or
– Will it be about “which indicators to use”?
– How will national priorities be set?• “Cherry picking”?
Issue of transition: Statistical capacity?• Emerging gap
between SDG:– Statistical
aspirations– Realities
• March 2015 survey on proposed SDG indicator feasibility
• Implication: Many developing countries will not escape “tyranny of averages”
• Question: Can “big data” (“open data”) be part of the answer?
UNSC indicator assessment survey Number of indicators
Very relevant, suitable, and feasible 50 (16%)
Very relevant, suitable, but only feasible with a strong effort
39 (13%)
Very relevant, but suitability needs further discussion, and only feasible with a strong effort
28 (9%)
Only somewhat relevant, suitability needs further discussion, and only feasible with a strong effort
86 (28%)
Only somewhat relevant, suitability needs further discussion, and difficult even with a strong effort
95 (31%)
Based on responses to a UN Statistical Commission survey of 70 national statistical offices conducted in March 2015.
SDG indicators: A staggered start?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
• Green SDGs: No problem with indicators• Yellow SDGs: Indicator problems can be resolved• Grey SDGs: “More discussion necessary” on indicators
UNDP calculations, based on responses from 25 member states,
collected by UN Statistical Commission in October 2015.
“Ready to rock” ------------------------------------------------------- “Not yet ready for prime time”
SDGs: Some concluding thoughts
• SDGs fit our region much better than MDGs did– This is a huge opportunity . . . but where’s the money?
• Alternative sources of development finance (e.g., remittances)?
– How do we do SDG16 (“peace, justice, inclusive institutions”)?• Governments are expecting UN support that is:
– Timely– Integrated
• Complexity of SDG agenda means we can not know all the answers in advance—especially on:– Reporting– Accountability
• But let’s not let this stand in the way of moving forward . . . Together
Thank you very much!