Population Trends, the 2020 Census, and Implications for Health and Development

in MississippiJohn J. Green

State Data Center of Mississippi hosted at the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies

Presented at the University of Mississippi Medical CenterFebruary 19, 2020

Center for Population Studies• The Center for Population Studies houses the

State Data Center of Mississippi

Applied Policy and Community Research Laboratory

Academic Minor in Society and Health

• The State Data Center (SDC) of Mississippi is a collaborative partnership between the University of Mississippi, the State of Mississippi, and the U.S. Census Bureau to provide

Outreach and education

Technical assistance with data requests and analysis

Networking between data users and the Census Bureau

Representation for Mississippi with the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates

Outline• Public data leadership

• Data sources and population trends of importance to health and wellbeing

o Age as an illustrative topic, because challenges and opportunities vary across the life course

Health lifestyles and diseases

Insurance coverage

Infrastructure needs

Caregivers

Questions of equity and inclusivity for all age groups

• Decennial Census and 2020 Census

• What we can do to improve population data

• Research should transcend traditional divides and work to promote multi-method and publicly oriented research

• Publicly available statistical data are used to build knowledge and for a wide range of legally required and other official decision making processes

• To be effective in our data-intensive world, leaders (at all levels) need to access and utilize these data sources

Public Data Leadership

From: Routledge Handbook of Community Development, eds. S. Kenny, B. McGrath, & R. Phillips (2018).

• As a society we are collecting and being asked to use more data than ever before

• Given the volume, an increasingly smaller proportion is being used

• Limited resource communities and their organizations are faced with renewed challenges with the combined digital and data divides

• We need more than computing skills in the era of large-scale data

o Domain, data, analytical, and project management skills*

o Add another area of knowledge and skills – DATA FACILITATION AND LEADERSHIP

*See: Kitchin, Rob. 2014. The Data Revolution: Big Data, Open Data Infrastructures, and Their Consequences. Los Angeles, CA: Sage.

Example: Decennial Census and Census-Related Data• Decennial Census data are used for political apportionment and

political district boundaries

• Combined with related data, they are also used to make investment decisions

• Allocation of funding for federal, state, and local programs

o Census Bureau data were used in FY 2015 to allocate use of $689,312,279,105 in federal funding*

o Total federal spending for MS across 316 programs informed by census data was $17,666,838,000 in FY 2017+

$5,912 per person

*Hotchkiss, Marisa and Jessica Phelan. 2017. Uses of Census Bureau Data in Federal Funds Distribution: A New Design for the 21st Century. U.S. Census Bureau, U.S. Department of Commerce. https://www.census.gov/library/working-papers/2017/decennial/census-data-federal-funds.html

+Reamer, Andrew. 2020. “Comprehensive Accounting of Census-Guided Federal Spending (FY2017): Part B State Estimates. Counting for Dollars 2020 Brief 7. https://gwipp.gwu.edu/sites/g/files/zaxdzs2181/f/downloads/Counting%20for%20Dollars%202020%20-%20Comprehensive%20Accounting_Report%207B%20Feb%202020%20rev.pdf

Example: Decennial Census and Census-Related Data• Data are used to inform grants for social, economic, environmental, and health

development

• They serve as the basis for population estimates and projections used for research and planning

• Data provide the foundation for a wide range of economic and health statistics, examples includeo Age distributionso Migration patterns and trendso Povertyo Insurance coverageo Population base for fertility, disease, and mortality rates (including age-

adjustments)

Decennial Census• Mandated by the U.S. Constitution, our nation attempts to count all people living in

the U.S. every 10 years

o Article 1, Section 2

o Necessary for political apportionment

• The first U.S. Decennial Census was conducted in 1790

• The Decennial Census has changed over the decades, reflecting changes in American society as well as influencing those changes*

*Anderson, Margo J. 2015. The American Census: A Social History, Second Edition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Decennial Census• The most recent Decennial Census was in 2010

• The next Decennial Census will occur in 2020

o Short questionnaire asking about age, sex, race, Hispanic status, housing tenure, and relationship to householder

o Online option with majority of residents for the first time

o Also, participation via telephone, mail, and in person

*U.S. Territories will receive a longer version form.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/blogs/random-samplings/2014/07/understanding-geographic-relationships-counties-places-tracts-and-more.html

Census Geography

Population Estimates• Official estimates are produced by the Census Bureau with additional data from

government agencies and state input through the Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates (FSCPE)

• Cohort Component Method, then controlled to national-level

• Decennial Census (with modifications) – base population

• Group Quarters – change without components

o Dorms, barracks, nursing homes, prisons

• Vital statistics

o Births and deaths

• Migration

o IRS returns, Medicare enrollment, Social Security database, Census demographic characteristics file

• Census Bureau

• Started in 2005

• Replaced the “long form” Census in 2010

• Provides timely estimates for more detailed demographic, social, economic, and housing data

• Data are derived from samples

• The ACS provides yearly estimates for large population geographies (65,000 persons or more) and five-year cumulative estimates for smaller population geographies

• Most recent data available are 2018 (one-year and five-year estimates)

American Community Survey

Population Change and Components of Change

• Population change is measured through the demographic balancing equation

Population Estimate(ending

population)

Births Deaths Migration(+ or -)

Population Base

(starting population)

• Migration includes domestic and international dimensions

• Net migration is the balance of an area in a particular time period

o Number of in-migrants minus the number of out-migrants

Mississippi Net Migration by Age from the 1950s through 2000s

Population Change in Select Southern States, 2010 to 2019

Geographic AreaPopulation Estimates

April 1, 2010 Estimates Base July 1, 2019 Perc. Change

2010 to 2019Southern Region 114,563,030 125,580,448 9.6

Selected Southern StatesAlabama 4,780,125 4,903,185 2.6Arkansas 2,916,031 3,017,804 3.5Louisiana 4,533,487 4,648,794 2.5Tennessee 6,346,276 6,829,174 7.6Mississippi 2,968,130 2,976,149 0.3

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2019. Additional table formatting from the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies.

9.6

2.6

3.5

2.5

7.6

0.3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

15

Southern Region Selected SouthernStates

Alabama Arkansas Louisiana Tennessee Mississippi

Estim

ated

Per

cent

age

Cha

nge

in P

opul

atio

n 20

10-2

019

Population Change in Select Southern States, 2010 to 2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2019. Chart formatting from the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies.

Estimated Population Change and Components of Change in Select Southern States, 2010 to 2019

Geographic Area

April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019Total

Population Change*

Natural Increase

Vital Events Net Migration

Births Deaths Total International** DomesticSouthern Region 11,017,418 4,384,770 13,996,064 9,611,294 6,596,570 3,156,088 3,440,482

Selected Southern States

Alabama 123,060 70,234 543,396 473,162 53,493 39,655 13,838Arkansas 101,773 66,688 351,712 285,024 34,584 23,180 11,404

Louisiana 115,307 171,756 575,059 403,303 -57,242 44,961 -102,203

Tennessee 482,898 143,253 744,274 601,021 338,428 79,086 259,342Mississippi 8,019 68,667 352,877 284,210 -61,248 18,949 -80,197

*Total population change includes a residual, representing change in population that cannot be attributed to any specific demographic component.**Net international migration includes the international migration of both native and foreign-born populations.Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2019. Additional table formatting from the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies.

2,955,000

2,960,000

2,965,000

2,970,000

2,975,000

2,980,000

2,985,000

2,990,000

2,995,000

2010 Base 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Estim

ated

Pop

ulat

ion

Annual Population Estimates for Mississippi,2010 to 2019

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2019. Chart formatting from the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates, Vintage 2018. Additional chart formatting from the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies.

0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0

Under 5 5 to 9

10 to 14 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 44 45 to 49 50 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 to 69 70 to 74 75 to 79 80 to 84

85 and over

Mississippi Population Estimates by Age,2010 and 2018

2010 Percent 2018 Percent

36.1 36.1 36.2 36.6 36.7 37.0 37.2 37.5 37.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Med

ian

Age

in Y

ears

Annual Population Age Estimates for Mississippi,2010 to 2018

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-Year Estimates. Error bars based on 90% confidence level. Additional chart formatting from the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies.

25.4 25.2 25.0 24.6 24.5 24.3 24.2 23.9 23.6

12.9 13.0 13.5 13.9 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.6 15.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Perc

ent o

f Tot

al P

opul

atio

n

Annual Population Age Estimates for Mississippi, 2010 to 2018

Perc. Less than 18

Perc. 65 +

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-Year Estimates. Error bars based on 90% confidence level. Additional chart formatting from the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies.

61.9 61.9 62.7 62.6 63.2 64.1 64.6 65.4 65.3

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Ratio

of P

opul

atio

n <1

8 &

65+

to R

est o

f Pop

ulat

ion

Annual Age-Dependency Ratio Estimates for Mississippi, 2010 to 2018

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-Year Estimates. Error bars based on 90% confidence level. Additional chart formatting from the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies.

40.2 40.3 40.8 40.9 40.9 41.2 41.3 41.4 41.5

30.7 30.9 31.0 31.7 32.4 32.4 32.7 33.3 33.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Med

ian

Age

in Y

ears

Annual Population Age Estimates by Race for Mississippi, 2010 to 2018

White Alone Black/African American Alone

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-Year Estimates. Error bars based on 90% confidence level. Additional chart formatting from the University of Mississippi Center for Population Studies.

Decennial Census

• Given the importance of the Decennial Census we need to give special attention to achieving an accurate count of the population

Focusing Attention on Hard to Count Areas

Images: U.S. Census Bureau. 2018. “Response Outreach Area Mapper.” https://www.census.gov/roam

• Diverse body of research is expanding for “hard to count” and “low response” groups and areas

o Rural-urban location

o Complex living arrangements

o Age

o Race, ethnicity, and nationality

o Language and literacy

o Computer and broadband internet access

o Distrust and concern for confidentiality

For example, see: McGeeney, K. et al. (2019). 2020 Census Barriers, Attitudes, and Motivators Study Survey Report. https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/program-management/final-analysis-reports/2020-report-cbams-study-survey.pdf

Modified Hard to Count Index (H2C) Analysis andLocations for Dialogue Sessions in Mississippi

Indicators used for the Modified Hard to Count Index (H2C)Items SourcesLow Response Score (LRS)

U.S. Census Bureau, Planning Database using American Community Survey (ACS) 2016 five-year estimates

2010 Census Mail Response Rate (reverse coded to reflect low participation, LMRR)

U.S. Census Bureau, Mail Response Rate (we reverse coded the value by subtracting from 100)

High Risk Index (HRI) MS You Count Team, using data from ACS 2016 five-year estimates% pop. w/age <5*, % pop. w/ age 18-24*, % households that rent, % multi-unit structure, % individuals with different address one year ago*, % individuals living in complex household, % families below poverty*, % grandparents responsible for child, % single person households*

Hard to Count Index LRS, LMRR, HRI each recoded into quintiles, then quintile scores were summated to form H2C (15=census tracts likely to be the most difficult to count)

*denotes indicators also represented in the LRS.

LeastH2C

Most H2C

MississippiYOU COUNT Initiative

Example Engagement Activities• Participatory workshops with community residents

and other local/regional stakeholders

• Creation and dissemination of specialized materials

• Panel sessions with partner organizations and representatives from the Census Bureau

• Webinars with stakeholders across the state, southern region, and nation

• Presentations and tabling events

• Expansion to engage with Extension through the Amplifying Rural Voices Initiative (Southern Rural Development Center)

Lessons Learned

o Limited general knowledge about the Census

o Concern over privacy and use of data

o Need for building a sense of community-level ownership and agency

o Account for literacy levels in messaging

o Focus messaging to stakeholder groups

o Address web-access in communities with limited computer and broadband access

What We Can Do Facilitate outreach, education, and engagement

o What the Census is, when and how it will be conducted, and how the data will be used

o Use our “trusted voices” and address misperceptions

Direct special attention to community-based organizations, churches, schools, and businesses

Connect people with 2020 Census resources

o Local and state Complete Count Committees

o State Data Center and Census Information Center

o Educational and promotional materials

• This work was partially supported by the Annie E. Casey Foundation and the W.K. Kellogg Foundation (the latter for the New Pathways to Health and Opportunity Initiative)

• John Green services as Vice-Chair of the Mississippi Complete Count Committee

• The ideas expressed here do not necessarily represent the partner organizations or Mississippi Complete Count Committee

• All errors are attributable to the author

Acknowledgements