The 2017 critical loads data: Differences to earlier ...€¦ · Assessment Modelling (CIAM) and...
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The 2017 critical loads data: Differences to earlier estimates and implications for current and future ecosystems protections
CIAM Report 1/2018
September 2018
Maximilian Posch, Robert Sander, Wolfgang Schöpp, Markus Amann
Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Summary In 2017, the Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) of the Working Group on Effects compiled a new data set on critical
loads in Europe, based on the submissions of national focal centres to the 2015‐17 call for data. This dataset has now
been introduced into the GAINS integrated assessment model, the main tool for policy analyses for the Convention.
This report analyses the implications of the new data on the findings derived from the earlier version compiled in
2012, which served as the basis for the policy analyses for the negotiations on the revised Gothenburg Protocol and
the EU clean air policy.
It is found that the 2017 updates to the critical loads databases confirm and even strengthen the key policy conclusions
derived from the earlier analyses. Current levels of nitrogen deposition are a major threat to the biodiversity of
European ecosystems, with even higher exceedances of the critical loads emerging from the new data. The less
optimistic evaluations persist also for the baseline projections for 2030.
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Context
During 2015–2017 the Coordination Centre for Effects (CCE) under the International Cooperative Programme on
Modelling and Mapping of Critical Levels and Loads and Air Pollution Effects, Risks and Trends (ICP Modelling and
Mapping) carried out a call for updated critical loads on acidification, eutrophication and biodiversity. This call enabled
Parties to update their data in the European critical loads database, to support European air pollution abatement
policies. New in this call was the agreed manner for compiling the critical loads for eutrophication, i.e., as the minimum
of the empirical nitrogen and modelled nutrient‐nitrogen critical load for a given site. This data was reported to the
third joint session of the Steering Body to the Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long‐
range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe (EMEP) and the Working Group on Effects (WGE) in Geneva, 11‐15
September 2017 (ECE/EB.AIR/GE.1/2017/2–ECE/EB.AIR/WG.1/2017/2). The 2017 critical load database has been
documented in the CCE Final Report (Hettelingh et al. 2017).
The WGE recommended the 2017 critical loads for acidification and eutrophication for use in integrated assessment
modelling, and the transfer of the updated European database on critical loads to the Centre for Integrated
Assessment Modelling (CIAM) and their incorporation into the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and
Synergies (GAINS) model. This transfer and their incorporation into GAINS has now been conducted by CIAM in
collaboration with the CCE. Thus, the new European critical loads can now be used in integrated assessments to
provide information on ecosystem impacts.
This report explores the implications of the new estimates of critical loads on future emission scenarios. For this
purpose, this report compares the new 2017 set of critical loads (CLs) with the data delivered to CIAM in 2012 (Posch
et al. 2011), which have been used for the integrated assessment analyses to support the negotiations of the
Gothenburg Protocol and the EU Clean Air Policy leading up to the National Emission Ceilings Directive of 2016
(Amann, M. et al. 2015). With the exception of the 2017 critical loads data, all other data and methods employed for
this comparison are the same as those used for the recent 2017 Clean Air Outlook produced for the European
Commission (Amann et al. 2017).
Comparison of the 2017 and 2012 critical loads data bases
As elaborated in (Hettelingh et al. 2017), major differences of the 2017 critical loads data base include the concept
for the critical loads for eutrophication. Now the critical load for eutrophication is defined, for a given site, as the
minimum of the estimates derived from (i) the empirical method, and (ii) the modelled nutrient‐nitrogen critical load,
while before the choice was up to the national focal centres. Furthermore, national focal centres employed improved
input data and extended the spatial coverage and reporting of critical loads, especially for the Natura2000 nature
protection areas. However, overall the 2017 European database covers a smaller domain than before, e.g., excluding
data for Russia east of 40°E (Table 1).
Table 1: European ecosystem areas (in million km2) for which critical loads are determined in the 2012 and 2017 CL data bases.
CLs for 2012 CL 2017 CL
Eutrophication 3.48 2.65
Acidification 3.88 2.93
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As a rather limited snap shot of the differences between the two databases, Figures 1 and 2 compares the 5‐
percentiles of critical loads, i.e. 5% of the ecosystem area in a grid cell has critical loads lower than or equal to the
value shown, thus indicating the most sensitive ecosystems.
Figure 1: 5‐percentile of the CL for eutrophication (for all ecosystems) for the 2012 (left panel) and 2017 (right panel) databases
Figure 2: 5‐percentile of the CL for acidification (for all ecosystems) for the 2012 (left panel) and 2017 (right panel) databases
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As another way of comparison, cumulative frequency distributions (CDFs) provide insight into the distributions of the
stringency of the critical loads values of all the 2‐4 million data points/ecosystems across Europe (Figure 3). The overall
differences are small for all of Europe, although they are important in some areas as indicated in the maps above.
Also, even identical CDFs would not mean that the CLs are the same at all locations, e.g., two sets of values could have
interchanged their location, leading to an identical CDF. Furthermore, it should be kept in mind that the two CDFs do
not cover identical ecosystems areas.
Figure 3: Cumulative distributions (CDFs) of the 2017 critical loads (solid lines) and the ‘2012’ critical loads (dashed lines) for eutrophication (green) and acidification (red) over the whole domain
Exceedances of critical loads in 2005
For 2005, based on the 2017 national submissions of emission inventories for 2005 to EMEP (Amann et al. 2017), the
protection of ecosystems has been computed for the 2012 and 2017 critical loads databases (Figure 4 to Figure 7;
Table 2). The overall pattern is very similar, but there are some notable differences. E.g., for the 2012 database Norway
and Malta did not provide eutrophication CLs; and overall, slightly higher/more extended exceedances can be
discerned for the 2017 database (especially for acidification). This is substantiated in Table 2, where the percentage
of ecosystems areas at which the critical loads are exceeded are presented for the European countries. Note that
Serbia (in its present boundaries), Montenegro and Kosovo, were not considered separately earlier, and thus no
numbers are provided for 2012. As mentioned above, differences arise not only from the inclusion of new (or leaving
out earlier considered) areas, but also from new data sets, insights, and protection criteria.
Figure 5 and Figure 7 show the exceeded areas for ecosystems that countries have indicated to be protected by
national or international regulations (mostly Natura2000 in EU28). The overall pattern reflects that of Figure 4 and
Figure 6, respectively. However, it also shows that some countries (e.g., Austria, Poland, United Kingdom) have added
information on protected areas for the 2017 CL database, while others have not identified their protected areas in
the 2017 submissions.
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Eutrophication
Figure 4: Percentage of total ecosystems area where in 2005 nitrogen deposition exceeded the critical loads for eutrophication; left panel: 2012 CL database, right panel: 2017 CL database
Figure 5: Percentage of the protected (Natura2000) areas where in 2005 nitrogen deposition exceeded the critical loads for eutrophication; left panel: 2012 CL database, right panel: 2017 CL database
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Acidification
Figure 6: Percentage of total ecosystems area where in 2005 acid deposition exceeded the critical loads for acidification; left panel: 2012 CL database, right panel: 2017 CL database
Figure 7: Percentage of protected areas (e.g., Natura2000) where in 2005 acid deposition exceeded the critical loads for acidification; left panel: 2012 CL database, right panel: 2017 CL database
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Table 2: Percentage of ecosystems areas where deposition exceeded the critical loads for eutrophication and acidification in 2005, comparing the 2012 and 2017 CL data bases
Eutrophication Acidification
2012 CL 2017 CL 2012 CL 2017 CL Albania 92% 92% 0% 0% Austria 81% 75% 1% 1% Belarus 100% 100% 13% 13% Belgium 3% 9% 13% 21% Bosnia & Herzegovina 72% 79% 13% 13% Bulgaria 61% 100% 0% 2% Croatia 95% 96% 5% 5% Cyprus 100% 100% 0% 0% Czech Republic 95% 100% 86% 89% Denmark 100% 100% 34% 30% Estonia 35% 80% 0% 0% Finland 11% 9% 0% 1% France 90% 89% 11% 11% Germany 60% 81% 31% 61% Greece 100% 100% 3% 3% Hungary 100% 100% 13% 11% Ireland 24% 8% 4% 4% Italy 75% 78% 1% 1% Kosovo 79% 16% Latvia 92% 96% 13% 12% Lithuania 97% 100% 34% 32% Luxembourg 100% 100% 14% 15% Macedonia, FYR 91% 92% 11% 11% Malta 100% 0% Republic of Moldova 100% 100% 1% 1% Montenegro 72% 0% Netherlands 92% 76% 79% 90% Norway 9% 8% 10% Poland 75% 74% 54% 57% Portugal 100% 100% 3% 3% Romania 98% 100% 3% 3% Russia 48% 51% 1% 4% Serbia 85% 94% 20% 28% Slovak Republic 98% 100% 9% 8% Slovenia 91% 100% 2% 0% Spain 100% 100% 2% 2% Sweden 37% 14% 12% 8% Switzerland 75% 61% 12% 19% Ukraine 100% 100% 2% 2% United Kingdom 55% 22% 15% 15% TOTAL 61% 67% 7% 11%
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Table 3: Percentage of the area of ecosystems under protection (e.g., Natura2000) where deposition exceeded the critical loads in 2005, comparing the 2012 and 2017 CL data bases. Missing numbers mean that no ecosystems have been marked as protected/Natura2000 in the submissions to CCE.
Eutrophication Acidification
2012 CL 2017 CL 2012 CL 2017 CL Albania 100% 83% 0% 0% Austria
80% 0%
Belarus 100% 100% 9% 0% Belgium
95%
Bulgaria
100% 4% Croatia 100% 100% 9% 5% Cyprus 100% 100% 0% 0% Czech Republic 93% 100% 80% 89% Denmark 100% 100% 20% 19% Estonia 47% 82% 0% 0% Finland 5% 9% 0% 2% France 88% 87% 11% 8% Germany 61% 72% 31% 61% Greece 100% 100% 4% 4% Hungary 100% 100% 7% 6% Ireland 26% 2% 3% 3% Italy 74% 75% 0% 0% Latvia 94% 96% 13% 11% Lithuania 96% 99% 40% 39% Luxembourg 100% 100% 28% 30% Macedonia 100% 100% 10% 0% Malta
100% 0%
Republic of Moldova 100% 100% 2% 0% Netherlands 92% 79%
Norway
2% 6% Poland
71% 52%
Portugal 100% 100% 3% 3% Romania 97% 100% 3% 3% Russia 40% 67% 12% 6% Serbia 100% 100% 23% 15% Slovak Republic 97% 100% 12% 11% Slovenia 88% 100% 2% 0% Spain 100% 100% 1% 1% Sweden 50% 14% 12% 6% Switzerland
61% 20%
Ukraine 100% 100% 2% 3% United Kingdom
21% 21%
TOTAL 78% 70% 11% 12%
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Exceedances of critical loads in 2030
The updates of the critical loads do not only influence the earlier computed extent to which ecosystems faced excess
deposition in the past, but they also affect the assessment of the remaining threats to ecosystems in the future. For
this purpose, exceedances were calculated using 2030 depositions of sulphur and nitrogen and both the 2012 and
2017 critical loads databases, respectively (see Figure 8 to Figure 11, Table 6 to Table 7). Emissions are those of the
baseline projection of the EU Clean Air Outlook 2017 (Amann et al. 2017) assuming compliance of all EU Member
States with the recent NEC Directive, and timely implementation of all national current emission control legislation in
the other countries. For reference, emissions are presented in Table 4 and Table 5.
Table 4: Emissions for the non‐EU countries, 2005 and the baseline projection
SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC
2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030 2005 2030
Albania 12 6 28 28 10 8 16 24 30 20
Belarus 82 64 199 148 61 65 91 117 229 153
Bosnia‐H 223 35 58 29 23 16 16 24 40 27
FYR Maced. 117 33 33 21 14 9 8 7 19 17
R Moldova 7 2 31 19 15 14 15 16 33 26
Norway 33 32 198 101 35 21 23 24 201 99
Russia 1721 1512 2796 1767 722 652 510 481 2491 1562
Serbia 422 48 138 65 72 46 57 37 112 78
Montenegro 19 1 8 4 10 6 2 2 16 12
Kosovo 72 10 36 15 11 9 5 4 20 17
Switzerland 15 10 93 41 10 11 60 54 112 73
Turkey 1529 850 883 686 403 448 308 531 648 456
Ukraine 1164 521 895 576 411 354 253 291 610 342
Sum 5416 3124 5396 3500 1798 1658 1365 1611 4562 2882
The overall patterns of exceedances in 2030 is similar to the ones in 2005, but due to the emission reductions
exceedances retract to a smaller area, with the biggest reductions discernible in Central Europe. As noted above,
exceedances of CLs from the 2017 database are somewhat bigger (see also Table 6). In both cases (2012 and 2017 CL
database), particularly large improvements occur for acidification, which will remain a problem in 2030 in only a few
areas in Europe. However, eutrophication remains a substantial problem, underlining the need for further nitrogen
emission reductions.
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Table 5: GAINS estimates of 2005 emissions, the emission reduction requirements (ERRs) of the NEC Directive, and the resulting emission ceilings in 2030 (relative to the GAINS estimates for 2005)
GAINS estimates for 2005 (kilotons) Emission reduction requirements (ERRs) Resulting emission ceilings for 2030 (kilotons) SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC Austria 26 229 21 66 145 41% 69% 46% 12% 36% 16 71 11 58 93 Belgium 143 304 38 69 145 66% 59% 39% 13% 35% 49 125 23 60 94 Bulgaria 778 178 38 40 128 88% 58% 41% 12% 42% 93 75 22 35 74 Croatia 59 79 42 38 97 83% 57% 55% 25% 48% 10 34 19 29 50 Cyprus 38 22 3 6 11 93% 55% 70% 20% 50% 3 10 1 5 6 Czech Rep. 207 278 38 84 207 66% 64% 60% 22% 50% 70 100 15 66 104 Denmark 26 180 27 77 110 59% 68% 55% 24% 37% 11 57 12 58 70 Estonia 76 40 15 10 29 68% 30% 41% 1% 28% 24 28 9 10 21 Finland 69 183 37 39 126 34% 47% 34% 20% 48% 46 97 24 31 66 France 449 1381 260 753 1203 77% 69% 57% 13% 52% 103 428 112 655 578 Germany 471 1431 125 671 1157 58% 65% 43% 29% 28% 198 501 72 477 833 Greece 541 403 59 58 263 88% 55% 50% 10% 62% 65 181 30 52 100 Hungary 42 156 42 79 122 73% 66% 55% 32% 58% 11 53 19 54 51 Ireland 74 139 18 103 67 85% 69% 41% 5% 32% 11 43 11 98 46 Italy 410 1192 168 434 1206 71% 65% 40% 16% 46% 119 417 101 364 651 Latvia 9 41 22 17 48 46% 34% 43% 1% 38% 5 27 13 17 29 Lithuania 31 50 20 33 69 60% 51% 36% 10% 47% 12 25 13 30 37 Luxembourg 2 56 3 6 11 50% 83% 40% 22% 42% 1 10 2 5 7 Malta 11 9 1 2 4 95% 79% 50% 24% 27% 1 2 0 1 3 Netherlands 65 359 23 152 175 53% 61% 45% 21% 15% 30 140 12 120 149 Poland 1170 784 248 314 587 70% 39% 58% 17% 26% 351 478 104 260 434 Portugal 178 245 58 53 197 83% 63% 53% 15% 38% 30 91 27 45 122 Romania 609 333 136 194 347 88% 60% 58% 25% 45% 73 133 57 145 191 Slovakia 92 88 40 32 76 82% 50% 49% 30% 32% 17 44 20 23 51 Slovenia 41 50 12 20 43 92% 65% 60% 15% 53% 3 18 5 17 20 Spain 1274 1468 135 500 799 88% 62% 50% 16% 39% 153 558 68 420 487 Sweden 36 195 30 63 202 22% 66% 19% 17% 36% 28 66 25 53 129 UK 707 1541 119 314 1061 88% 73% 46% 16% 39% 85 416 64 264 647 EU‐28 7634 11415 1776 4228 8635 79% 63% 49% 19% 40% 1618 4228 889 3451 5142
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Eutrophication
Figure 8: Percentage of total ecosystems area where nitrogen deposition exceeds the critical loads for eutrophication for the 2030 baseline emission projection; left panel: 2012 CL database, right panel: 2017 CL database
Figure 9: Percentage of the protected areas (e.g., Natura2000) where nitrogen deposition exceeds the critical loads for eutrophication for the 2030 baseline emission projection; left panel: 2012 CL database, right panel: 2017 CL database
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Acidification
Figure 10: Percentage of total ecosystems area where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification for the 2030 baseline emission projection; left panel: 2012 CL database, right panel: 2017 CL database
Figure 11: Percentage of protected areas (e.g., Natura2000) where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification for the 2030 baseline emission projection; left panel: 2012 CL database, right panel: 2017 CL database
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Table 6: Percentage of ecosystems areas where deposition exceeds the critical loads for the 2030 baseline emission projection, comparing the 2012 and 2017 CL data bases
Eutrophication Acidification
2012 CL 2017 CL 2012 CL 2017 CL Albania 81% 82% 0% 0% Austria 33% 32% 0% 0% Belarus 100% 100% 3% 3% Belgium 0% 1% 0% 1% Bosnia & Herzegovina 65% 70% 1% 1% Bulgaria 20% 90% 0% 0% Croatia 76% 83% 0% 0% Cyprus 100% 100% 0% 0% Czech Republic 70% 95% 24% 15% Denmark 99% 99% 1% 1% Estonia 13% 23% 0% 0% Finland 2% 1% 0% 0% France 69% 72% 2% 2% Germany 39% 65% 2% 23% Greece 92% 93% 0% 0% Hungary 68% 79% 2% 2% Ireland 10% 3% 0% 0% Italy 37% 41% 0% 0% Kosovo 47% 0% Latvia 66% 81% 1% 1% Lithuania 88% 96% 25% 21% Luxembourg 96% 100% 8% 5% Macedonia, FYR 63% 67% 0% 0% Malta 97% 0% Republic of Moldova 96% 95% 0% 0% Montenegro 52% 0% Netherlands 83% 68% 59% 84% Norway 3% 2% 4% Poland 53% 50% 9% 10% Portugal 95% 99% 0% 0% Romania 91% 93% 0% 0% Russia 37% 37% 0% 1% Serbia 64% 81% 0% 0% Slovak Republic 85% 89% 1% 1% Slovenia 12% 85% 0% 0% Spain 96% 97% 0% 0% Sweden 17% 10% 5% 3% Switzerland 61% 42% 3% 10% Ukraine 100% 100% 0% 0% United Kingdom 18% 6% 1% 1% TOTAL 47% 54% 1% 3%
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Table 7: Percentage of the area of ecosystems under protection (e.g., Natura2000) where deposition exceeds the critical loads for the 2030 baseline emission projection, comparing the 2012 and 2017 CL data bases. Missing numbers mean that no ecosystems have been marked as protected/Natura2000 in the submissions to CCE.
Eutrophication Acidification
2012 CL 2017 CL 2012 CL 2017 CL Albania 91% 65% 0% 0% Austria
32% 0%
Belarus 100% 100% 5% 0% Belgium
29%
Bulgaria
88% 0% Croatia 70% 64% 4% 1% Cyprus 100% 100% 0% 0% Czech Republic 60% 92% 22% 15% Denmark 99% 99% 1% 0% Estonia 20% 28% 0% 0% Finland 1% 1% 0% 1% France 65% 66% 2% 2% Germany 39% 56% 2% 21% Greece 94% 93% 0% 0% Hungary 69% 78% 0% 0% Ireland 12% 1% 0% 0% Italy 34% 37% 0% 0% Latvia 69% 79% 3% 2% Lithuania 89% 96% 28% 22% Luxembourg 93% 100% 16% 10% Macedonia 79% 100% 0% 0% Malta
94% 0%
Republic of Moldova 91% 94% 0% 0% Netherlands 83% 59%
Norway
0% 2% Poland
45% 8%
Portugal 96% 99% 1% 1% Romania 87% 91% 0% 0% Russia 21% 63% 0% 0% Serbia 78% 100% 3% 0% Slovak Republic 81% 87% 1% 1% Slovenia 10% 80% 0% 0% Spain 97% 97% 0% 0% Sweden 20% 10% 5% 2% Switzerland
42% 10%
Ukraine 100% 100% 0% 0% United Kingdom
7% 1%
TOTAL 58% 55% 2% 3%
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Conclusions
As the perhaps most striking observation, the 2017 updates to the critical loads databases confirm and even
strengthen the key policy conclusions from the analyses that have been conducted before based on the 2012
critical loads databases. Current levels of nitrogen deposition are a major threat to the diversity of European
ecosystems, with even higher exceedances of the critical loads emerging from the new data. In 2005, nitrogen
deposition exceed the critical loads for eutrophication in 67% of the total ecosystems area in Europe, compared
to 61% that have been estimated before. For the EU‐28, the percentage increases from 67% to 81%.
Along the earlier findings, significantly less ecosystems in Europe remain threatened by acidification, while also
here the absolute numbers are now higher than computed before.
These less optimistic evaluations persist also for the baseline projections for 2030. Despite the expected
improvements, 54% of all European ecosystems will suffer from excess nitrogen deposition (and 66% in the EU‐
28), compared to 47% and 49%, respectively, that emerge from the 2012 data.
Spatial patterns are similar in both cases. (Substantial) exceedances of CLs of eutrophication occur almost
everywhere except in (northern) Fennoscandia, Scotland and (western) Ireland. In contrast, the much less
extensive exceedances of acidity CLs are concentrated in central Europe and the North Sae/Atlantic coast.
Figure 12: Percent of ecosystems area at which nitrogen deposition exceeds the critical loads for eutrophication, based on the 2017 and 2012 critical loads databases
Figure 13: Percent of ecosystems area at which nitrogen deposition exceeds the critical loads for eutrophication, based on the 2017 and 2012 critical loads databases
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2005 2030 2005 2030
Percen
t of ecosystem
s area
2017 CL 2012 CL
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0%
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4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
2005 2030 2005 2030
Percen
t of ecosystem
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All Europe EU‐28
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References
Amann M, Anderl M, Borken‐Kleefeld J, et al (2017) Progress towards the achievement of the EU’s air qualit and
emission objectives. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria
Amann, M., Bertok I., Borken‐Kleefeld, J., et al (2015) Adjusted historic emission data, projections, and optimized
emission reduction targets for 2030 ‐ A comparison with COM data 2013. Part A: Results for EU‐28 ‐ TSAP#16A
Version 1.1. IIASA
Hettelingh J‐P, Posch M, Slootweg J (2017) European critical loads: database, biodiversity and ecosystems at risk:
CCE Final Report 2017. Coordination Center for Effects, RIVM, Bilthoven, The Netherlands
Posch M, Hettelingh J‐P, Slootweg J (2011) Modelling critical thresholds and temporal changes of geochemistry
and vegetation diversity: CCE Status Report 2011. Coordination Centre for Effects, Bilthoven, Netherlands
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed in this paper do not necessarily represent the positions of IIASA or its
collaborating and supporting organizations.