The 2016 EU Agricultural Outlook

Conference

Wine, olive oil, fruit and vegetables

Brussels, 6-7 December

2

Important sectors for EU agriculture (% of total)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Area Value Labour Exports Imports

Olive

Wine

Vegetables

Fruit

Source: EUROSTAT (EAA, FSS), DG Agriculture and Rural Development

3

Diversity makes it complicated

4

Olive oil – diverging trends in production (1000 t)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Spain and Portugal Rest of EU

Rest of the world Linear (Rest of the world)

5

Olive oil – diverging trends in consumption (kg/capita)

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Producing MS Non Producing MS

6

Olive oil – towards more net exports

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Consumption (ES, PT, IT, GR) Consumption Rest of EU Net exports Extra EU

-1.6% -0.8%

+7.5% +3.2%

7

Wine: new consumption trends

0

50

100

150

200

250

Direct use Other use Net trade

• Fresh / easy wines (in particular sparkling)

• Trade in bulk

• Segment of premium classical

• Growth in Asia / America

8

Apples: less fresh fruit, more exports

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Fresh apples Processing & waste Net trade

Fresh apples per capita in the EU

17.8 kg in 2005-06

15.0 kg in 2015-16

14.2 kg in 2025-26

2.4 apples a week in 2005

9

Apples: less fresh fruit, more exports

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

Fresh apples Processing & waste Net trade

Fresh apples per capita in the EU

17.8 kg in 2005-06

15.0 kg in 2015-16

14.2 kg in 2025-26

1.9 apples a week in 2015

10

Tomatoes: stagnating consumption, value adding

0

5

10

15

20

25

Retail volume (kg per…Retail value (EUR per capita)

7.9

Source: elaboration from Euromonitor & IHS Markit (France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK)

17.2

8.1

19.3

11

Main messages

Important sectors but diversity of situations

Relative stagnation / decline of domestic consumption

Trade should play a role to balance

Value adding is key for such sectors