The 2015 Economy: Staying the course?? R. Christopher Jones, Ph.D.
-
Upload
felix-hall -
Category
Documents
-
view
217 -
download
2
Transcript of The 2015 Economy: Staying the course?? R. Christopher Jones, Ph.D.
The 2015 Economy:Staying the course??
R. Christopher Jones, Ph.D.
2
What has 2014 offered us (the U.S.)?
An economy that is still growing, but a bit more slowly.. Recession technically over June 2009
18 out of 21 quarters with positive real GDP growth since Q3 2009
We did see negative growth in Q1 2014 (2.1%) Unemployment at lowest point since July 2008 (5.9%) Retail sales growth relatively solid Growth in industrial production and capacity utilization Interest rates still low, and we have avoided inflation 5.2% growth in S&P 500 YTD 2014
3
What else did it bring?
Slightly better job creation.. We created 1.3 million jobs so far in 2014
About 200,000 more than in all of 2013
Increasing Federal debt continues to raise concerns of inflation (although we haven’t seen it yet), while Fed plans to normalize monetary policy (Fed Funds Rate incr.)
International debt (nearly $160 T) still poses a threat to monetary and economic stability
Marginal growth in housing starts
4
What about Florida?
Growth has returned, but not “2000’s style” growth YTD net job growth – 122,300 Unemployment at 6.1% (Sept.) Housing starts have slipped slightly since 2013
(57,691 YTD) Home values beginning to move upward All major regional markets seem to have
awakened from the economic coma, but are far from robust
5
U.S. Real GDP 1952-2014 (Chained 2009 Dollars)
$1,000$2,000$3,000$4,000$5,000$6,000$7,000$8,000$9,000
$10,000$11,000$12,000$13,000$14,000$15,000$16,000$17,000
Q2
52
Q2
54
Q2
56
Q2
58
Q2
60
Q2
62
Q2
64
Q2
66
Q2
68
Q2
70
Q2
72
Q2
74
Q2
76
Q2
78
Q2
80
Q2
82
Q2
84
Q2
86
Q2
88
Q2
90
Q2
92
Q2
94
Q2
96
Q2
98
Q2
00
Q2
02
Q2
04
Q2
06
Q2
08
Q2
10
Q2
12
Q2
14
Bill
ion
s
6
U.S. Real GDP Annualized % Growth
1952-2014
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%Q
2 52
Q2
54
Q2
56
Q2
58
Q2
60
Q2
62
Q2
64
Q2
66
Q2
68
Q2
70
Q2
72
Q2
74
Q2
76
Q2
78
Q2
80
Q2
82
Q2
84
Q2
86
Q2
88
Q2
90
Q2
92
Q2
94
Q2
96
Q2
98
Q2
00
Q2
02
Q2
04
Q2
06
Q2
08
Q2
10
Q2
12
Q2
14
7
U.S. Unemployment Rate 1960-2014
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
11.0
%
8
U.S. Housing Starts (SAAR) 1960-2014
400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,600
000'
s
9
Real Retail & Food Svcs. Sales 1992-2014
$115$120$125$130$135$140$145$150$155$160$165$170$175$180$185$190
Bil
lio
ns
10
Inflation (CPI-U) 1970-2014
30.0
70.0
110.0
150.0
190.0
230.0
11
Real Per Capita Disposable Personal Income 1960-2014
$8,000$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000$18,000$20,000$22,000$24,000$26,000$28,000$30,000$32,000$34,000$36,000$38,000$40,000
Ap
r-60
Ap
r-62
Ap
r-64
Ap
r-66
Ap
r-68
Ap
r-70
Ap
r-72
Ap
r-74
Ap
r-76
Ap
r-78
Ap
r-80
Ap
r-82
Ap
r-84
Ap
r-86
Ap
r-88
Ap
r-90
Ap
r-92
Ap
r-94
Ap
r-96
Ap
r-98
Ap
r-00
Ap
r-02
Ap
r-04
Ap
r-06
Ap
r-08
Ap
r-10
Ap
r-12
Ap
r-14
12
Credit Market Debt Per Capita 1960-2014 (infl. adj.)
$5,000
$10,000$15,000
$20,000$25,000
$30,000
$35,000$40,000
$45,000$50,000
$55,000
13
Consumer Sentiment 1980-2014
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
14
Federal Debt 1972-2014
$0$2,000$4,000$6,000$8,000
$10,000$12,000$14,000$16,000$18,000
Bil
lio
ns
Domestic Foreign
15
2015 U.S. Forecast Growth continues, real GDP will grow by 2.5%
- 3.0% Modest job growth continues, unemployment
finishes out the year around 5.7% - 5.8% Stock markets grow by 5% - 8% Inflation concerns still can’t be ignored, nor can
the international debt crisis Is there a “boom” period ahead in the short
run? Not likely – but probably no collapse, either
16
Florida: The Facts
Florida has added 729,900 jobs since July 2010 Represents 10.3 percent of all U.S. jobs created during
this period The net job gains (729.9k) represent 78.4% of the job
losses experienced during the recession (930,800) Oct. 2013 – Sept. 2014: Gained 129,800 jobs 6.2% unemployment (Sept. 2014) 57,691 housing starts first 8 mos. of 2014, compared to
60,319 in 2013 and 40,101 in 2012 Home prices have increased by 9.8 percent in the past
year
1717
Florida Real GDP(millions of chained 2005 dollars)1997-2013
$500,000$550,000$600,000$650,000$700,000$750,000$800,000$850,000
Jan
-97
Jan
-98
Jan
-99
Jan
-00
Jan
-01
Jan
-02
Jan
-03
Jan
-04
Jan
-05
Jan
-06
Jan
-07
Jan
-08
Jan
-09
Jan
-10
Jan
-11
Jan
-12
Jan
-13
1818
Florida Employment (000s)1990-2014
5,0005,5006,0006,5007,0007,5008,0008,5009,000
Sep
-90
Sep
-91
Sep
-92
Sep
-93
Sep
-94
Sep
-95
Sep
-96
Sep
-97
Sep
-98
Sep
-99
Sep
-00
Sep
-01
Sep
-02
Sep
-03
Sep
-04
Sep
-05
Sep
-06
Sep
-07
Sep
-08
Sep
-09
Sep
-10
Sep
-11
Sep
-12
Sep
-13
Sep
-14
1919
Florida Unemployment Rate 1983-2014
2.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.0
Sep
-83
Sep
-84
Sep
-85
Sep
-86
Sep
-87
Sep
-88
Sep
-89
Sep
-90
Sep
-91
Sep
-92
Sep
-93
Sep
-94
Sep
-95
Sep
-96
Sep
-97
Sep
-98
Sep
-99
Sep
-00
Sep
-01
Sep
-02
Sep
-03
Sep
-04
Sep
-05
Sep
-06
Sep
-07
Sep
-08
Sep
-09
Sep
-10
Sep
-11
Sep
-12
Sep
-13
Sep
-14
%
2020
Florida Housing Starts1988-2014
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,000
Au
g-88
Au
g-89
Au
g-90
Au
g-91
Au
g-92
Au
g-93
Au
g-94
Au
g-95
Au
g-96
Au
g-97
Au
g-98
Au
g-99
Au
g-00
Au
g-01
Au
g-02
Au
g-03
Au
g-04
Au
g-05
Au
g-06
Au
g-07
Au
g-08
Au
g-09
Au
g-10
Au
g-11
Au
g-12
Au
g-13
Au
g-14
2121
Florida Home Price Index (Q1 1980 = 100)1988-2014
100150200250300350400450500
Ap
r-88
Ap
r-89
Ap
r-90
Ap
r-91
Ap
r-92
Ap
r-93
Ap
r-94
Ap
r-95
Ap
r-96
Ap
r-97
Ap
r-98
Ap
r-99
Ap
r-00
Ap
r-01
Ap
r-02
Ap
r-03
Ap
r-04
Ap
r-05
Ap
r-06
Ap
r-07
Ap
r-08
Ap
r-09
Ap
r-10
Ap
r-11
Ap
r-12
Ap
r-13
Ap
r-14
2222
Florida Home Ownership Rate1984-2013
63
65
67
69
71
73
Jan-
84Ja
n-85
Jan-
86Ja
n-87
Jan-
88Ja
n-89
Jan-
90Ja
n-91
Jan-
92Ja
n-93
Jan-
94Ja
n-95
Jan-
96Ja
n-97
Jan-
98Ja
n-99
Jan-
00Ja
n-01
Jan-
02Ja
n-03
Jan-
04Ja
n-05
Jan-
06Ja
n-07
Jan-
08Ja
n-09
Jan-
10Ja
n-11
Jan-
12Ja
n-13
%
2323
Leading Index for Florida1990-2014
-5-4-3-2-1012345
%
2424
FL Employment By Region 1990-2014 (000s)
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
Miami
Orlando
Tampa
J ax
2525
FL Unemployment Rate by Region1990-2014
2.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.010.011.012.013.0
Miami
Orlando
Tampa
J ax
2626
FL Housing Starts By Region1990-2014
0400800
1,2001,6002,0002,4002,8003,2003,6004,0004,4004,8005,2005,600
Miami
Orlando
Tampa
J ax
27
What’s in Store for Florida? More job growth, lower unemployment
But the growth will be modest Florida’s economic picture today looks a lot like the
early 1990’s Are we ever going to see a full recovery of the
housing sector? Depends on how you define “full recovery” If you use 2000’s criteria, no
All areas are moving forward again SE Florida will create the most jobs (most diverse
economy)