THE 2012 ELECTION THE FINAL ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHICS STRATEGIES & ISSUES FINANCE
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Transcript of THE 2012 ELECTION THE FINAL ANALYSIS DEMOGRAPHICS STRATEGIES & ISSUES FINANCE
THE 2012 ELECTION
THE FINAL ANALYSIS
DEMOGRAPHICS
STRATEGIES & ISSUES
FINANCE
Election Demographics
% of vote
Presidential Campaign Strategies and Issues
Campaign Messages-Economy
• Romney:– Obama is responsible for the weak economy, high
unemployment and poor job creation.– My policies will create 12 million new jobs.
• Obama:– I inherited a catastrophic economic situation that
takes time to fix.– The US economy and jobs are gradually
recovering.
Campaign Messages: Taxes
• Romney: I will reduce all personal tax rates by 20% with offsetting elimination of tax deductions.
• Obama: Romney won’t say what tax deductions will be eliminated.– Romney’s plan would require eliminating home
mortgage interest deductions and other deductions that raise taxes for the Middle Class.
– Instead those earning over $250,000 should pay more.
Campaign Ads
• Obama – defined Romney with early ad blitz.– bought ads at lower candidate rates.
• Romney – “outsourced” large % of ads to outside groups,
which cost more and lost control of the message.
• Some negative ads backfired for both campaigns.
Ground Game
• Obama’s ground game was the best in history.
• Romney’s get-out-the-vote technology had major problems.
Polling
• Public polls and Obama pollsters got it right.• Republican pollsters had a bad night.• Online and live phone polls outperformed
automated phone polls.
Gaffes and October Surprise
• Gaffes: – “Legitimate” rape– 47% – Binders full of women– You didn’t build that– Going to put y’all in chains
• October surprise - Hurricane Sandy benefited Obama and stalled the Romney campaign.
Impact of Other Issues
• Benghazi• Immigration• Obamacare• Reproductive rights• Gay marriage• Legalization of marijuana
CAMPAIGN FINANCE
The 2012 election is estimated to cost $6 billion
The most expensive in history!
Factors: Presidential Fundraising Super PACs & Outside Spending Legislative Races
Let’s follow the money
2010 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Republicans & Mitt Romney
Raised: $1.13 billion
Spent: $1.11 billion
Democrats & Barack Obama
Raised: $1.08 billion
Spent: $957 million
Campaign Expenses
$720.1 million $859.9 million
Campaign spent 42% Campaign spent 52%Advertising
Total
Field offices Romney’s $300 million Obama’s $800 million
Field StafferMedianSalary/Month
Romney’s $6,000 Obama’s $3,000
FUNDING SOURCES
RNC vs. DNC$351 million Maximum Donation: $30,800. Both parties raised more from $267 million donors giving $5,000 or less.
Campaign$413 million Maximum Donation: $2,500. Obma raised more from donors$645 million giving $200 or less. Romney raised more from donors giving over $2,000. Super PACs
$203 million Unlimited donations. Of the 16 contributors who donated $2 $75 million million or more to Super PACs, 6 were for Obama; 10 for Romney
FUNDING STRATEGIES
Obama’s campaign•Done in-house•Concentrated on raising funds from small donors•Over 4 million individuals contributed to his campaign•Many contributed more than once via online
or text messages
Romney’s campaign•Did not raise as much •His alignment with outside spending groups allowed him
to keep up
Sources of Funding by Sector
•Finance, Insurance & Real Estate Romney, $52.1 million Obama, $18.7 million
•Miscellaneous Business
Romney, $24.4 million Obama, $19.9 million •Lawyers & Lobbyists
Romney, $13.6 million Obama, $25.5 million •Labor
Romney, $3,245 Obama, $413,394 •Retirees
Romney, $56.3 million Obama, $50 million
BIG SPENDERS
G/S – affiliated supporters: $994,239
:
Morgan Stanley: $827,255
Credit Suisse Group: $618,941
UC - affiliated supporters: $1,092,906
Microsoft: $761,343
Google, Inc: $737,055
US Government: $627,628
Harvard University: $602,992
JP Morgan Chase & Co: $792,147
Bank Of America: $921,839
SUPER PACS/OUTSIDE GROUPS
RESTORE OUR FUTURE $142,645,946AMERICAN CROSSROADS$124,138,876
PRIORITIES USA ACTION$77,707,200REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE$42,414,344AMERICANS FOR PROSPERITY $33,564,920 (501C)
CROSSROADS GPS$22,133,006 (501C)
AMERICAN FUTURE FUND$23,619,612
AMERICANS FOR JOB SECURITY $15,872,866 (501C)
NRA OF AMERICAPOLITICAL VICTORY FUND $9,621,827SERVICE EMPLOYEES INT’L UNION $16,439,069US CHAMBER OF
COMMERCE$32,676,075 (501C)