The 2nd Year of CarboEurope

Report of the Coordinator

-Ernst-Detlef Schulze

MPI for Biogeochemistry, Jena

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

What has happened?

Science: Regional ExperimentCarboTatra

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

What has happened?

Administration:Change in team of the CarboEurope office

- Annette Freibauer: overview, strategic decisions, workplan, policy relations

- Angelika Thuille: day-to-day management

- Yvonne Hofmann: secretary, webpage

- (Hendrik Tilger: IT support)

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

What has happened?

Conferences- CarboEurope session at EGU- CarboSchool presentation at EGU- 7th CO2 conference Boulder

Workshops- CarboSchool workshop- Concerted Action workshop on monitoring strategies- Graz workshops about 1st commitment period and future

of Kyoto Protocol- numerous meetings of Components and smaller project

groups- CarboEurope-related presentations at scientific and

policy meetings

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Main results

Ciais-Nature and further insights (cf. 2003 session, bottom-up/top-down)

variability driven by climate – the value of long-term measurements and intensive data/model interactions (cf. 2003 session, publications)

Cescatti-Advection and further insights (cf. Aubinet paper, advection session)

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Future: Closing FP5 projects

TCOS SiberiaChiottoC-InventCamelsGHG-CA

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Closing FP5 projects: Chiotto

Project extended to allow several months of data from towers (and modelling) until March 2006

Status of Tall Towers– 3 running OK, 3 with problems, Orleans tower will start in 2006 – the towers in operation meet or are very close to the WMO

precision targets

Workshop planned for March 2006 Amsterdam

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Closing FP5 projects: GHG-Concerted Action

Finished with stakeholder workshop in November 2005

Update of European GHG balance

– forest sink smaller than estimated (225 TgC/yr)

– cropland and grassland C flux unknown

– peatlands and estuaries: GHG hotspots

– high uncertainty in non-forest ecosystems

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Closing FP5 projects: CarboInvent

Successful workshops for policy makers

– Land-use Related Choices under the Kyoto Protocol

– Options for Including LULUCF Activities in a Post-2012 International Climate Agreement

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Closing FP5 projects: CAMELS

One Prototype CCDAS completed

No integration of forest inventory data in biogeochemical models

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Future: What is expected in 2006?

Ecosystems: Continuation and optimization of ecosystem CO2 flux network, first synthesis of major ecosystem types

Atmosphere: Multiple gas species assets to attribute the European C balance to controlling processes, high frequency aircraft profiles

Regional experiment: analysis of intensive campaign and preparation of 2007 campaign

Integration: First assessment of upscaling techniques from point flux measurements to Eurogrid

Initiatives for further Nature papers!

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

European-wide anomaliesof climate and NPP during 2003

Ciais et al. (2005)

a changes in Jul-Sep air temperature

b changes in annual precipitation

c simulated changes in Jul-Sep NPP

d simul. changes in annual mean NPP

e satellite observed changes in FAPAR

f simulated changes in FAPAR

All data compare 2003 and the average of 1998–2002.

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

NEP-Anomaly 2003: Two hotspots due to different reasons

S. Zähle, PIK-Potsdam (unpubl.)

Reduced photosynthesis

, continued heterotrophic

respiration

Increased heterotrophic respiration,

average photosynthesi

s

LPJ-Model, CRU-Weather, reference July-Sept. 95-04

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Changes in SOC contents across England and Walesbetween 1978 and 2003.

Bellamy et al. (2005)

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Rates of change in soil organic carbon content, grouped byoriginal carbon contents and indicated land uses. Bellamy et al. (2005)

arable/rotational

grasspermanent

grass non-agricultural all

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Soil carbon content in context Schulze & Freibauer (2005)

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Leaf litter production in mature deciduous forest trees exposed to elevated CO2

Körner et al. (2005)

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Sequestration of root-derived soil carbonwith rising atmospheric CO2 levels

Heath et al. (2005)

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Response of labile and resistant SOM poolsto changes in temperature

Fang et al. (2005)

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Long-term sensitivity of soil carbon turnoverto warming

Knorr et al. (2005)

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Temperature response of plant respiration Atkin et al. (2005)

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Advection in the atmospheric CO2 exchangesof an alpine forest

Marcolla et al. (2005)

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Advection at nighttime Aubinet et al. (2005)

Vertical profiles of CO2 concentration at Bily Kriz, Le Bray, Hesse, Renon and Vielsalm. Differences between night and day.

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

The value of ancillary ecosystem data Davi et al. (2005)

CASTANEA(biophysical model)

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

7-year regional NEE from tall tower measurements Haszpra et al. (2005)

weak net CO2 sink: 107±48 and 69±37 gC m2 year-1

monthly sums of

GPP Reco

NEE for the 7-yearmeasurement period

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Regional atmospheric sampling roughly captures ecosystem 13C signals

Hemming et al. (2005)

longitudinal trends in the 13C of ecosystem respired CO2, site averages for July/August

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Schrumpf

Disturbances of the C Cycle

Carlow

Easter Bush

Norunda

WetzsteinHainichGebesee

Soroe

Le BrayLaqueuille

HesseGrignon

Bugac

12 Sites:

3 deciduous

3 coniferous

3 grasslands

3 agriculture

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Schumacher 2003Effect of Sample Size and Paired Sampling on the Minimum Detectable Difference in %C

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Reichstein et al. (in press)

Temperature Sensitivity of Soil Carbon Pools

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

The Future

Will we close the gap?

Janssens et al. (2003)

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

The Future

Will we close the gap? Will we get a handle on the

uncertainty of NEE?

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Kutsch et al. (in prep.)

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

The Future

Will we close the gap? Will we get a handle on the

uncertainty of NEE? Will we incorporate management in

ecosystem models? Can we reward the maintenance of C-

stocks?

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Main Events

Kyoto-COP11: 2 side events with CarboEurope EGU General Assembly 2006, Vienna, Austria,

02–07 April06 International Conference on Regional Carbon

Budget Beijing, 16-18 Aug06 ESSP Open Science Conference Beijing, 9-12

Nov06 Next annual meeting date Start of NitroEurope Feb06 Pending proposals Siberia

AfricaAmazonia

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Conclusions

Even low uncertainties (measurement errors) lead to considerable site specific uncertainty in NEE predictions (up to 1 t C/ha)

Reduction in model uncertainty can only be achieved by more precision and accuracy in measurements

Model uncertainty will always be higher than measurement uncertainty as the input uncertainties amplify each other in the propagation process

Wattenbach

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Thank You.

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Eco Dimona flights

Dolman

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Land use in SW France Dolman

Report of the CoordinatorE.-D. Schulze

Model output – global uncertainty Wattenbach

μ = -3781.87δ = 526.26

> 1 t C/ha

DNDC 2002

δ δ