Tgi conference call 4Q 2013 vf

30
March 2014 Strictly Private and Confidential TGI 4Q 2013 results

Transcript of Tgi conference call 4Q 2013 vf

March 2014

Strictly Private and Confidential

TGI 4Q 2013 results

2

Table of contents

1. TGI Overview and History

2. Key updates

3. Financial and operating highlights

4. Sizeable expansion projects are well underway

Appendix

1. Economic, industry and regulatory environment

2. Shareholders and management team

3. EEB Overview

1. Overview and History

4

Overview

Stable and growing Colombian economy with sound investment environment

Constructive and stable regulatory framework

Largest natural gas pipeline system in Colombia

Stable and predictable cash flow generation, strongly indexed to the US Dollar

Strong and consistent financial performance

Experienced management team with solid track record in the sector

Expertise, financial strength and support of shareholders

Natural monopoly in a regulated environment

Strategically located pipeline network

5

Company history

TGI history Pipeline network

Natural gas reserves

City (population)

References

Highlights

Source: Company information and ANH.

2.11 tcf Center

1.89 tcf North

2.99 tcf

Eastern

Producers: Chevron Ecopetrol

Producers: Ecopetrol & Equion South

Valledupar (350k)

Currumaní (27k)

Bucaramanga (1.1mm)

Bogota (7.9mm)

Neiva (477k)

Cali (2.7mm)

Pereira (682k)

Manizales (430k)

Medellin (3.3mm)

0.02 tcf

Pipeline owned by TGI Pipeline owned by a third party

References

BOMT

Owns ~61% of the national pipeline network (3,957 km) and transports 48.5% of the gas consumed in the country

− Serves ~70% of Colombia’s population, reaching the most populated areas (Bogota, Cali, Medellin, Bucaramanga and the coffee region and Piedemonte Llanero, among others)

− Area served generates ~82% of Colombia’s GDP

− Has access to the two main production regions, La Guajira and Cusiana/Cupiagua

25% interest in Contugas (Peru)

− 30-year concession for natural gas transportation and distribution

TGI was created as a result of the privatization of Ecogás and has experienced remarkable growth since then, under the leadership of its controlling shareholders, EEB and CVCI

Villavicencio (384k)

Creation of Ecogas

1997

2005

Alienation of Ecogas assets

2006

Ecogás awarded to EEB

2007

Creation of TGI and bond issuance Transfer of 1st

BOMT (GBS) and pipelines exchange with Promigas

Transfer of 2nd BOMT (Centragas) and CVCI capitalization

Cusiana expansion phase I begins operations

Subordinated debt is refinanced.

2009

2008

TGI assumes the O&M of owned pipelines

2012

Refinancing of 2007 Bond issue

Cusiana expansion phase II begins operations (3Q)

TGI assumes the O&M of Compressor stations.

Moody´s and Fitch give investment grade rating to TGI

2011

2010

Source: Company information.

Ballena expansion begins Operations

TGI-Transcogas merger

2013

Standard & Poor’s gives investment grade rating to TGI

Headquarters relocation from Bucaramanga to Bogotá

Redesign of organizational structure

2. Key Updates

7

Acquisition of 23.6% of TGP

Key updates

• On January 16th, 2014, TGI signed an SPA to acquire 23.6% of TGP and

100% of COGA from Techint

• The ROFO process began on January 17th

• Prior to announcing the transaction, TGI talked with all 3 rating agencies,

who affirmed our ratings with a stable outlook

• The financing plan was structured in two phases:

Phase 1: USD $ 270 MM Equity and a USD $ 380 MM

Syndicated loan.

Phase 2: USD $ 125 MM debt reduction from TGI cash

generation and dividends from TGP, and USD $ 255 MM long

term debt

• On February 18th Techint notified TGI that CPPIB had decided to

excercice its right to purchase the stake in TGP that TGI had agreed to

acquire

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Cusiana Apiay San Fernando (CASF)

Key updates

• After basic engineering was completed the estimated budget of this project

was USD $ 268 million

• On February 2014 Ecopetrol decided not to continue with this project as

initially agreed

• Ecopetrol is now analyzing the construction of a major electricity plant at

Cusiana

• Ecopetrol will continue expanding the capacity of Termo Ocoa and Termo

Suria and will need to contract 20mmcf/d along the Cusiana- Apay and

Apiay-Villavicencio-Ocoa tranches

• TGI is in the process of looking for additional shippers willing to contract

capacity in this pipeline

• On March 4, 2014 TGI formally solicited proposals from shippers

(including Ecopetrol) for this and other upcoming expansions

3. Financial and operating highlights

10

Source: Company information.

Network length

(km)

Capacity

(mmscfd)

Firm Contracted Capacity

(mmscfd)

Transported Volume Gas Losses Load factor

(%) (%)

371 396

422 420 422 454

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

66.1% 69.1% 71.2%

57.6% 58.9% 60.8%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3702

3529

3774 3774

3957 3957

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

0.10%

0.20%

0.57% 0.54% 0.52%

0.21%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

TGI Operational performance 2013

478 478 548

618

730 730

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

427 437 485

560 604 624

96% 99%

95% 96%

83% 85%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

11 11

Source: UPME and Company information. (1) 48,5% of market share of gas transported directly by TGI. Most of the 15% transported by “Others” is natural gas transported by TGI through the

TGI Pipeline System to other pipeline systems. (2) As of December 301 2013.

TGI is the largest natural gas transportation company in the country

− Holds 48.5%(2) market share in the Colombian natural gas transportation sector and owns ~61% of the pipeline network

TGI’s extensive pipeline network (3,957 km) allows the Company to take advantage of new business opportunities and participate in expansion projects in different regions

Other industry participants face high barriers of entry to access TGI’s gas transportation market in a cost-efficient manner

Natural gas transportation market share (1)

Natural gas transported volume (2)

(mmscfd)

(% of natural gas transported volume)

Largest natural gas pipeline system in Colombia

TGI has a dominant market position, holding a natural monopoly with high barriers of entry

Source: Natural gas transportation companies’ Electronic Bulletin of Operations

Source: Natural gas transportation companies’ Electronic Bulletin of Operations

TGI 49%

Promigas 36%

Others 15%

454.4

341.3

44.4 47.5 29.9 12.5 5.9

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Stable and predictable cash flow generation

TGI’s revenues are highly predictable, with approximately 98% coming from regulated tariffs that are reviewed al least every 5 years, ensuring cash flow stability and attractive rates of return

Main sectors served by the Company (72(1)% of revenues) present stable consumption patterns (no seasonality)

The Company enjoys excellent contract quality

− 100% of TGI’s contracts are firm contracts with an average life of 8,3 years

− 84% of regulated revenues are fixed tariffs, not dependent on transported volume

− Extremely low sensitivity of EBITDA to changes in exchange rate

Revenues breakdown

(% of revenues)

Source: Company information. (1) Includes Distributors, Ecopetrol´s refinery and Natural gas for Vehicles. (2) TGI calculations (3) Ecopetrol accounts for most of this revenue.

TGI’s revenues are highly predictable as a result of regulated tariffs and stable consumption

Source: TGI as of December 31- 2013

Key financial data - Ebitda

US$ in millions )

196 198 224

261 293

359

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Ecopetrol 17%

Natural Gas 23%

Gases de Occidente

16% EPM 12%

Isagen 7%

Others 26%

By Client

Distributor 57%

Vehicles 7%

Traders 8%

Thermal. 17%

Refinery 8%

Others* 3%

By Sector

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And long term firm contracts

Source: Company information. (1) Includes 32 clients.

TGI’s capacity is covered by firm contracts (average life of 8.3 years) with top-tier clients

(1)

In 2008, the Company contracted its capacity on a long term basis, with most of the contracts maturing 2021

TGI has in place a commercial strategy to ensure a timely rollover of the contracts

Retail distributors (regulated users), including Gas Natural, Gases de Occidente, EPM are forced by regulation to have their gas transport needs under firm contracts

0

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

800.000

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

Jan

-20

May

-20

Sep

-20

Jan

-21

May

-21

Sep

-21

Jan

-22

May

-22

Sep

-22

Jan

-23

May

-23

Sep

-23

Jan

-24

May

-24

Sep

-24

Jan

-25

OTHERS

ISAGEN

GASES DE OCCIDENTE

EPM

ECOPETROL

GAS NATURAL

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Revenues EBITDA and EBITDA margin

Funds from operations (1)

(US$ in millions – average exchange rate for each period)

Source: Company information

(US$ in millions – average exchange rate for each period)

(US$ in millions – average exchange rate for each period)

(1)FFO calculated as net income plus depreciation, amortization and provisions, adjusted for effect from exchange rate and hedges.

On 2012 FFO includes the LM transaction premium~ USD 69 million (one time event)

240 253

295

339

391

465

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

TGI Financial performance 2013

(US$ in millions)

2013 Preliminary figures subject to shareholders assembly approval

196 198 224

261 293

359

81.7% 78.2% 76.2% 76.8% 75.0% 77.1%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

84 96 108 117 133

266

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

14 69

174

387

185

35

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Historical Capex

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Financial debt breakdown – Dec. 2013 (2)

Subordination Agreement

The lender is EEB (major shareholder)

No repayment of principal allowed before payment of senior debt

Interest can only be paid if there is no default or event of default and if the payment does not trigger any such scenario

Subordinated debt acceleration is not allowed until senior debt is not repaid

Source: Company information. Note: Ratios calculated in local currency (1) Interest coverage ratio calculated as EBITDA / Net Interest (2) Senior debt stands for the US$750 million Senior Unsecured Notes due 2022 and 2.4 million Leasing operations. Subordinated debt stands for

intercompany loan with EEB.

Total Debt / EBITDA (x)

Total Senior Debt / EBITDA (x)

Interest coverage (1)

(x)

Financial performance

5.6 5.4 4.9

4.2 3.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

3.8 3.7 3.4

2.9 2.5

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2.0 2.1 2.5

4.0

5.9

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

2013 Preliminary figures subject to shareholders assembly approval

Senior Debt; 752; 60.8%

Hedges; 114; 9.2%

Subordinated debt; 370;

29.9%

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4. Sizeable expansion projects are well underway

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La Sabana Compression Plant

Description: Critical to greater expansion of

service to Bogota and surrounding

areas, La Sabana uses MOPICO

technology within a new

compression station. The project

will increase transportation

capacity from 143 to 215 mmcf/d

Cost: ~$55mm

Status: — Land acquired

— MOPICO compressor supply

contracted

— Environmentally permitted

— Contractor selected and has

initiated work

— Expected Completion: Begin

operations during August 2014

Expansion projects are well underway

Description: Increase capacity in 20 mmcf/d

by adapting Vasconia, Miraflores,

Puente Guiillermo compression

stations

Cost: ~$33.5mm

Expected

Completion: 2015

Cusiana Phase III

Description: Adapt compression stations,

delivery and receipt locations

along the Ballena -

Barrancabermeja pipeline so

that it can transport natural gas

in both directions, in order to

allow natural gas to be

transported from the central

region to the north

Cost: ~$20mm

Expected

Completion: 2016

Ballena – Barrancabermeja Bidirectionality

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Eje Cafetero Branches

Description: TGI will increase existing capacity

of Armenia and Chinchina

branches with the construction of

two new loops; Armenia Branch:

37.5 km 8” loop parallel to exiting

6” pipeline and Chinchina – Santa

Rosa – Dosquebradas Branch:

7.5km 3” loop parallel to existing

3” pipeline

Cost: ~$28mm

Status: — Planning stage

— Expected Completion: 2016

Expansion projects pipeline

Description: Construction of a 122 km 14” loop

from Apiay to Usme. Porject

maximizes the use of Cusiana-Apiay

loop and additional capacity

expansions could be achieved with

compression stations.

Cost: ~$185mm

Expected

completion:

2018

Expansión Apiay – Usme

Description: Adapt infrastructure at Ballena field

to connect the Ballena-

Barrancabermeja pipeline with

PDVSA’s cross-border natural gas

pipeline, enabling the transportation

of natural gas to come from

Venezuela to the central region of

Colombia

Cost: ~$5mm

Expected

Completion: 2015

Adjustments for Venezuela Imports

Description: Construction of a 65 km 14”

loop and a new compression

station.

Increase capacity in 12.6

mmcf/d from Mariquita.

Cost: ~$90mm

Expected

Completion: 2016

Mariquita - Gualanday

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4. Questions and answers

20 20

Investor Relations

For more information about TGI contact our Investor Relations team:

http://www.tgi.com.co

http://www.grupoenergiadebogota.com.co

Santiago Pardo de la Concha

CFO

+57 (1) 3138400 - ext 2320

[email protected]

Rafael Andrés Salamanca Rodriguez

Investor Relations Advisor

+57 (1) 3268000 – ext1675

[email protected]

Antonio Angarita

Investor Relations Officer

+57 (1) 3268000 - ext 1546

[email protected]

Sergio Andrés Hernández Acosta

Finance Manager

+57 (1) 3138400 - ext 2450

[email protected]

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Appendix 1 – Economic and Industry Environment

22

Source: IMF, World Bank, Colombian Central Bank, National Administrative Department of Statistics and Bloomberg 1 2013E corresponds to the the average of the period January 2013 - September 2013.

Foreign Currency Reserves Increasing Foreign Direct Investments

High Real GDP Growth, Resilient to Global Setbacks Low Inflation & Country Risk Coupled with Strong Currency

1.7%

2.5%

3.9%

5.3%

4.7%

6.7% 6.9%

3.5%

1.7%

4.0%

6.6%

4.0% 4.1% 4.5%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E 2014E

Re

al

GD

P G

row

th (

% c

hg

yo

y)

GDP per

Capita

(US$ ‘000)

2.4 2.4 2.3 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.7 5.5 5.2 6.3 7.3 7.9

7.7%

2.8%

602

160

$2,291

$1,900

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

E

Inflation (EOP) EMBI+¹ (Avg) FX Rate (EOP)

22

$2 $3

$10

$7

$9

$11

$7 $7

$13

$16

1.8% 2.6%

7.0%

4.1% 4.4% 4.3% 3.0% 2.4%

4.0% 4.2%

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Foreign Direct Investments (US$bn) FDI / GDP (%)

8.2 8.4

Colombia did not

enter into recession

during the last

global financial

crisis

Stable and growing Colombian economy with sound

investment environment

9 10 11 11 14 15 15

21 24 25

28 32

37 41

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

20002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013(e)

International reserves Debt as % of GDP

23 Source: UPME, ANH, Concentra and 1994 & 2013 BP Statistical Review of World Energy 1 Mining and Energy Planning Unit. 2 National Hydrocarbons Agency.

Natural Gas is Replacing More Expensive and Less Environmentally-Friendly Fuel Sources

Growing Demand of Natural Gas Significant Availability of Natural Gas

Reserves mostly located

in the north and east

regions of the country

Key fields (Ballena,

Chuchupa, Cusiana and

Cupiagua) concentrate

virtually all of the natural

gas production

Long distances between

production and main

consumption areas

Minimal gas storage

capacity across the

country

Total

Domestic

Demand

(mmcf/d)

Expected

2012A-2016E

Growth by

Sector

1994 Total Fuel

Consumption: 26.2 mtoe

2012 Total Fuel

Consumption: 36.6 mtoe

23

Natural Gas in Colombia: Increasing Demand and Vast Reserves

(0.2)%

0.4% 2.8% 3.1%

10.5%

20.9%

Petro-chemical

Industrial Residential PowerGeneration

NGV Refinery

Bucaramanga

Bogotá

Cali

Medellín

2.99 tcf

0.02 tcf

2.11 tcf

Eastern

Producers:

Ecopetrol

Equion

Upper Magdalena Valley

Lower and Middle

Magdalena Valley

Northern

Producers:

Chevron

Ecopetrol References

Natural Gas Reserves

Main Oil & Gas Basins

City

1.89 tcf

Llanos

Orientales

Catatumbo

Guajira

Sinu

Tumaco

Choco

Valle Superior

Del Magdalena

Cordillera

Oriental

Valle Inferior

Del

Magdalena

Valle Medio

Del

Magdalena

11.7

7.0

0.4 0.3 0.1

Reserves perUPME¹

Reserves perANH²

2012 Production 2012 Demand 2012 Exports

tcf

Prospective Non-Conventional Prospective Conventional

Probable + Possible Proved

Oil34.7%

Hydroelectric29.5%

Natural Gas

24.3%

Coal10.9%

Renewables0.5%

Oil44.2%

Hydroelectric27.7%

Natural Gas

14.3%

Coal13.6%

Renewables0.3%

637 695 731 723810 860

783 819936

1012

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013E2016E

'05-'12 CAGR: 3.7%

'12-'16 CAGR: 5.4%

24

Regulatory framework established to attract private sector investment

Law 142 (1994) establishes system of open entry to the natural gas transportation sector − No term limitation for the provision

of the service − Assets used in the provision of the

service are not owned by the state but by the company providing such service

CREG required by law to seek input from market participants

CREG is an independent regulatory body that controls natural gas regulation − Sets tariffs, promotes competition

and monitors quality of service

Tariff calculation based on the principle of financial feasibility and economic efficiency

Tariffs are set in order to allow the service provider to: − Recover operational costs and

investments − Obtain a return on investment

comparable to what an efficient company would obtain in a sector of similar risk

Cost recovery, attractive regulated return on investment and protection against inflation

Transporters are given full recovery of operating and maintenance expenses − Adjusted by Colombian Price

Index (CPI) Dollar indexation of investment

remuneration tariff Different rates of return applied

when determining fixed and variable charges

Constructive and stable regulatory framework

Source: Company information.

The Colombian gas transportation regulatory framework was established to attract private sector investment and provide adequate cost recovery and regulated returns

Appendix 2 – Shareholders

26

(68.1% of TGI)

Leading energy holding company with interests across the electricity and natural gas sectors in Colombia, Peru and Guatemala

Founded in 1896 and controlled by the City of Bogota (with a 76.28% ownership stake)

Participates in the electricity and natural gas sectors through controlling and non-controlling investments

− Controlling investments in electricity transmission (Energia de Bogota and Trecsa), electricity distribution (EEC), natural gas transportation (TGI) and natural gas distribution (Contugas and Calidda)

− Non-controlling investments in electricity transmission (REP Peru, CTM Peru and Isa), electricity generation (Emgesa and Isagen), electricity districution (Codensa and Electrificadora del Meta), natural gas transportation (Promigas) and natural gas distribution (gasNatural Fenosa)

US$ 922 Million EBITDA LTM (2013) and US$ 8.874.57 thousand (2013)

The Rohatyn Group (TRG) is an investment manager focused

exclusively on emerging markets, with product offerings across three

primary business lines: private investments, hedge funds and fixed

income.

• Founded in 2002

• Currently has more than $7 billion in total assets under management

• Operates through 16 offices worldwide, with over 120 employees

• Presence in New York, Singapore, Mumbai, New Delhi, Hong Kong,

London, Buenos Aires, Lima, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Montevideo,

Kuala Lumpur, Jakarta, Bangkok, Shanghai and Madrid

• Contributes know-how and financial discipline to TGI

(31.92% of TGI)

Expertise, financial strength and support of shareholders

26

68.1%

25%

15.6%

Electricity

Transmission

40% 40%

1.8%

98.4%

Generation

51.5% *

2.5%

Distribution

51.5% *

16.2%

51%

82%

Distribution Transportation

Natural Gas

75%

60%

100%

*EEB is not the controlling

shareholder and is a party to

signed shareholder

agreements.

40%

25%

68.1%

TGI as part of the EEB Group:

100%

100%

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Appendix 3 – EEB Overview

28

EEB Strategy and Overview Strategy

Transportation and distribution of energy

Key facts

More than 100 years’ experience in the sector; founded in 1896.

Regional leader in the energy sector; major player in the entire electricity

and natural gas value chains (except E&P); operations in Colombia,

Peru, and Guatemala.

Largest stockholder is the District of Bogota - 76.2%.

Stock listed on the Colombia stock exchange; EEB adheres to global

standards of corporate governance.

The EEB Group is one of the largest issuers of equity and debt in

Colombia

USD Million 2013

Operating revenue 1,016

Operating income 315

EBITDA LTM 922

Net Income 438

Consolidated - Covenants 2013

Leverage Ratio 1.48

Interest Coverage Ratio 11.1

68.1%

25%

15.6%

Electricity

Transmission

40% 40%

1.8%

98.4%

Generation

51.5% *

2.5%

Distribution

51.5% *

16.2%

51%

82%

Distribution Transportation

Natural Gas

75%

60%

100%

*EEB is not the controlling

shareholder and is a party to

signed shareholder

agreements.

40%

25%

100%

100%

Focus on

natural

monopolies

Ample access

to capital

markets

Ambitious

projects in

execution

Growth in

controlled

subsidiaries

Sound

regulatory

framework

Experienced

management

and partners

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Disclaimer

This presentation contains statements that are forward-looking within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended

(the “Securities Act”), and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended. Such forward-looking statements are only

predictions and are not guarantees of future performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to

be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of

TGI, its consolidated subsidiaries and related companies to market risks and statements expressing management’ expectations, beliefs,

estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as

“anticipate”, “believe”, “could”, “estimate”, “expect”, “intend”, “may”, “plan”, “objectives”, ”outlook”, “probably”, “project”, “will”, “seek”, “target”,

“risks”, “goals”, “should” and similar terms and phrases. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on

management’s current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual

results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Although TGI believes that the

expectations and assumptions reflected in such forward-looking statements are reasonable based on information currently available to TGI’s

management, such expectations and assumptions are necessarily speculative and subject to substantial uncertainty, and as a result, TGI

cannot guarantee future results or events. TGI does not undertake any obligation to update any forward-looking statement or other

information to reflect events or circumstances occurring after the date of this presentation or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

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