Texas Projection Measure

What is TPM?

• TPM is a method for…– projecting future student scores -OR-– determining whether a student is likely to pass

TAKS assessments, in the next high-stakes grade using students’ current year scale scores

What is TPM?• TPM is a method for…

– projecting future student scores -OR-– determining whether a student is likely to pass

TAKS assessments, in the next high-stakes grade using students’ current year scale scores

Grades 5, 8, or 11 with the exception of writing, which is

projected from grade 4 to grade 7

vertical or horizontal depending on the grade

and subject

TPM provides an indication of how student performance at the end of a school year positions a student to meet the standard in future grades.

Where is TPM in this picture?

2009 TPM• TPM will provide projections for all TAKS English- and

Spanish-version tests (except 8th grade science) • TPM projections are made separately for each subject

area: reading/ELA, mathematics, writing, science, and social studies.

• The TPM will be used in 2009 for students taking the TAKS, TAKS (Accommodated), and linguistically accommodated testing (LAT) versions of TAKS.

2010 TPMTEA proposes to:

• expand the TPM for use with students taking the TAKS–M assessments; and

• implement a transition table approach to growth for students participating in TAKS–Alt.

Projections from and to…

From page 9

TPM Process

TPM Calculations

What is included? From page 9

TPM Requirements• A student must test all subjects needed for the

calculation in the same language. • A student must test all subjects in TAKS (the

“regular” form, Accommodated form, or linguistically accommodated test form)

• When projections for students in grades 3–8 are calculated, the student’s reading and mathematics scale scores used must be the vertical scale scores.

TPM Requirements

• TPM requires that a student (1) have a valid scale score in the current-year predictor subjects, (2) have a current-year scale score in the projection subject, and (3) have a valid scale score in the same language (English or Spanish) for all scores used as predictors to receive a projection.

No TPM available forstudents who…

• take TAKS in two language versions, such as taking TAKS reading in Spanish and TAKS mathematics in English,

• do not take all tests that are needed for a projection,• take TAKS for one subject and TAKS–M for another

subject, and • are in grades 5 and 8 with student ID information

that does not allow their results on the primary reading administration to be matched with records in the TAKS history file.

TPM Calculations

• Page 12 and 13

TPM Constants and Coefficients• Page 14

http://www.tea.state.tx.us/index3.aspx?id=3688&menu_id3=793

TPM Student Identified Groups

TPM for TAKS-M

TPM for TAKS-Alt

Student - Specific Scenario

State Accountability Standards

State Accountability Federal Accountability

# Students Met Standard# Students Tested

If the Standard is not met: • Apply Required Improvement• Recalculate Using TPM• Use Exceptions

Note: Can use any combinationof the three provisions, but can only use one

provisions for a single indicator.

# Students Met Standard# Students Tested

If the Standard is not met: • Calculate Performance

Improvement/Safe Harbor– Compare Met Standard Rate for 2009 and

2010 (without TPM)– A 10% Reduction of Failures and Meeting

the Other Measure for the Group or showing any improvement.

• Recalculate Using TPM

Accountability Calculations

Texas Projection Measure

• Can be used to move from Unacceptable to Acceptable or Acceptable to Recognized.

• The gain from 2008 must allow the cell to reach the standard if the gain were repeated the next year.

• There is no floor when moving to Acceptable. The rating must be within 5 points to move to Recognized.

• Required Improvement is always reviewed first. If it cannot increase the cell rating, TPM is applied.

Required Improvement

State Accountability:Provisions that May Increase Rating by One Level

Identifies if student is projected to pass next high stakes test at 5th, 8th or 11th grade.

Only available for students in grades 3-10 who: Test on TAKS, TAKS-Acc, TAKS-LAT Have scored results this year for both Reading

and Math Test in the same language

TPM will not be available for: 7th Grade Writing 8th Grade Science All 11th Grade Subjects

TPM can increase the campus rating to Acceptable, Recognized or Exemplary.

If applying TPM does not raise the cell rating, Exceptions are reviewed.

ExceptionsExceptions

Exceptions are the last choice.

Exceptions cannot be used for the same cell two years in a row.

Exceptions are limited depending on the number of cells measured.

The initial cell result must be within 5 points of the standard.

Acceptable/Recognized Exemplary

5-8 Cells 1 Exception With 10+ Cells evaluation, can use 1Exception9-11 Cells 2 Exceptions

12-15 Cells 3 Exceptions

16+ Cells 4 Exceptions

SAISD: Research & Evaluation

State Accountability Federal Accountability

Test Versions: TAKS – All Subjects/Grades TAKS-Accommodated – Science, Social Studies and all

11th Grade subjects

Also includes Dropout Rate: 7-8 (2%) Completion Rate (75%)

On-time Graduates and Continuers/Class of 2008

Test Versions (Reading/Math only): TAKS TAKS-Accommodated TAKS-M TAKS-Alt TAKS-LAT (2+ years in US)

Also includes Participation (95%) and Attendance Rate (90%) or Graduation Rate (70%)

On-time Graduates/Class of 2008

2009 Accountability Standards

Subject Acceptable Recognized Exemplary

Reading/ELA, Social Studies,

and Writing70% 75% 90%

Math 55% 75% 90%

Science 50% 75% 90%

Subject Meets AYP

Reading/ELA 67%

Math 58%

SAISD: Research & Evaluation

Calculating a State Campus RatingSubject All Students African American Hispanic Economically

Disadvantaged

Reading/ELA 74 70 84 75 71 83 74 70 83 72 73 82

Math 65 60 78 66 61 77 64 60 76 65 60 76

Science 70 69 75 71 70 74 70 68 73 68 66 75

Social Studies 93 90 98 94 90 95 93 89 98 92 89 97

Initial Campus Rating = Acceptable Scores: 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM

Subject All Students African American Hispanic Economically Disadvantaged

Reading/ELA 74 70 84 75 71 83 74 70 83 72 73 82

Math 65 60 78 66 61 77 64 60 76 65 60 76

Science 70 69 75 71 70 74 70 68 73 68 66 75

Social Studies 93 90 98 94 90 95 93 89 98 92 89 97

Final Campus Rating = Recognized Scores: 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM

SAISD: Research & Evaluation

Calculating a State Campus RatingSubject All Students African American Hispanic Economically

Disadvantaged

Reading/ELA 81 78 84 81 76 85 80 73 85 81 79 84

Math 72 70 78 72 68 77 71 76 74 73 72 76

Science 75 69 75 69 76 74 75 76 75 72 66 72

Social Studies 89 90 98 90 87 93 92 92 98 91 85 95

Campus A Initial______ Final______ Scores: 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM

24

Campus B Initial______ Final______ Scores: 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM

Subject All Students African American Hispanic Economically Disadvantaged

Reading/ELA 70 65 86 69 64 84 68 66 88 70 67 79

Math 54 50 58 54 58 61 52 57 54 52 53 59

Science 46 41 49 45 44 50 40 30 48 43 45 51

Social Studies 75 87 98 76 88 95 74 89 98 78 86 97

SAISD: Research & Evaluation

Calculating a State Campus RatingCampus C Initial______ Final______ Scores: 2009 Met Std/ 2008 Met Std/ 2009 TPM

Subject All Students African American Hispanic Economically Disadvantaged

Reading/ELA 85 72 93 90 72 94 86 74 92 85 73 91

Math 78 60 90 80 61 91 76 60 90 79 60 92

Science 88 69 91 86 70 86 90 68 90 85 69 93

Writing 93 90 98 94 90 95 93 89 98 92 89 97

SAISD: Research & Evaluation

TPM Summary StatementsTable Activity: Create a ‘T’ chart which outlines the key points and Create a ‘T’ chart which outlines the key points and

cautions related to TPM. cautions related to TPM.

Key Points Cautions