Texas Land Market Developments -- 2016 · 25.08.2016 · Generated by the SAS System ('Local',...
Transcript of Texas Land Market Developments -- 2016 · 25.08.2016 · Generated by the SAS System ('Local',...
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Texas Land Market Developments -- 2016Charles E. Gilliland Ph.D.Research Economist Real Estate Center Texas A&M University
Herbert’s Taco HutNew Braunfels, TexasAugust 25th 2016
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Current Land Market Scuttlebutt
• Prices up in most markets
• Energy areas weaker
• Farming areas see prices rise, volume fall
• Mixed signals
• Get ‘em while they are left!
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Texas Rural Land Price Per Acre
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Four Quarter Moving Average Total Acreage Sold
Generated by the SAS System ('Local', X64_8PRO) on August 16, 2016 at 11:21:58 AM
Texas Rural Land
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Texas Rural Land StatewideFour Quarter Moving Average Total Dollar Volume of Sales
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Texas Rural LandStatewideFour Quarter Moving Average Total Dollar Volume of Sales
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Texas Rural Land Real Price and Volume of Sales
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Four Quarter Moving Average Price Per AcrePanhandle - South Plains
Generated by the SAS System ('Local', X64_8PRO) on August 16, 2016 at 11:22:16 AM
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Four Quarter Moving Average Price Per AcrePanhandle - South Plains
Generated by the SAS System ('Local', X64_8PRO) on August 16, 2016 at 11:22:29 AM
Texas Rural Land
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Four Quarter Moving Average Total Dollar Volume of Sales -- Panhandle - South Plains
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Four Quarter Moving Average Total Acreage SoldPanhandle - South Plains
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Four Quarter Moving Average Price Per AcreTexas Rural Land -- Austin - Waco - Hill Country
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Four Quarter Moving Average Price Per AcreAustin - Waco - Hill Country
Generated by the SAS System ('Local', X64_8PRO) on August 16, 2016 at 11:23:05 AM
Texas Rural Land
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Four Quarter Moving Average Total Dollar Volume of SalesAustin - Waco - Hill Country
Generated by the SAS System ('Local', X64_8PRO) on August 16, 2016 at 11:24:04 AM
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Four Quarter Moving Average Total Acreage SoldAustin - Waco - Hill Country
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Latest Regional Quarterly Results
• Panhandle & So. Plains
• Far West Texas
• West Texas
• Northeast Texas
• Gulf Coast & Brazos Bottom
• South Texas
• Austin – Waco – Hill Country
Year to year Quarterly Dollar volume
+5.5% -2.2% -27%
-43.5% -34.7% -41.3%
+9.5% +2.9% +8.5%
+8.13% + 3.0 +3.5%
-0.4% -0.7% +11.0%
-3.5% +0.4% +27.6%
+8.1% +2.4% -11.1%
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Land Market Issues
• Economy
• Property rights • Coyote Lake Ranch v City of
Lubbock • Duarte Nursery v Corps of
Engineers
• Election
• Oil prices will go • Up • Down more
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Economy
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Economy
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Economy
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Economy
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Property Rights – Coyote Lake Ranch v City of Lubbocck
• City bought water rights in 1953
• Has 7 existing wells
• Wanted to expand – mowed grass to begin
• Supreme Court rules that Accommodation Doctrine Applies
• Landowners celebrating
• Oil and gas lawyers in a tizzy
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Property Rights – Duarte Nursery v Corps of Engineers
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Property Rights – Duarte Nursery v Corps of Engineers
• WOTUS
• 450 acre pasture
• Converted to wheat
• Plowing exemption
• …relocated earthen material into ridges • Unlawfully raising the elevation of the soil in the wetlands• “fill material”
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Property Rights – Duarte Nursery v Corps of Engineers
• Court • Tillage wasn’t an “established ongoing” farming activity
• Changing the use requires a permit from the Corps
• Pacific Legal Foundation continuing the fight
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Election
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Forecast Model System Elasticity
• System Elasticity
• Long Term Elasticity
• Percent Change in Response
for a 1 Percent Change in the variable
• Ceteris Paribus
Price Quantity
Oil price + 0.251 - 0.194
Personalincome + 0.403 + 0.595
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Oil Prices
• Oil prices 2018 • Down more• Up
Oil Price Forecast Low High
35 -9% -30% +17%
60 -5% -25% +19%