Texas Housing Insight - Texas A&M University · 3 About this Report Real Estate Center economists...

TEXAS HOUSING INSIGHTLUIS B. TORRES

RESEARCH ECONOMISTJAMES P. GAINESCHIEF ECONOMIST

WESLEY MILLERRESEARCH ASSISTANT

TR T E C H N I C A L R E P O R T

M AY 2 0172 1 2 0

Contents

AboutthisReport.........................................................................................................................3

March2017Summary..................................................................................................................4

Supply..........................................................................................................................................8

ResidentialConstructionCoincidentandLeadingIndicator............................................................8

Single-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits...................................................................................8

MajorMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits............................................................9

HousingStarts..................................................................................................................................9

MajorMetrosHousingStarts.........................................................................................................10

VacantDevelopedLots...................................................................................................................10

TotalNewPrivateSingle-FamilyConstructionValue.....................................................................11

TotalMonthsofInventory.............................................................................................................11

TexasExistingandNewHomeMonthsofInventory.....................................................................12

TexasMonthsofInventorybyPriceCohort...................................................................................12

MajorMetrosExistingHomeMonthsofInventory.......................................................................13

MajorMetrosNewHomeMonthsofInventory............................................................................13

Demand.....................................................................................................................................14

HousingSales.................................................................................................................................14

TexasHousingSalesbyPriceCohort..............................................................................................14

MajorMetrosHousingSales..........................................................................................................15

HomeOwnershipRate...................................................................................................................15

MajorMetrosHomeOwnershipRate............................................................................................16

30-YearMortgageRateand10-YearBondYield............................................................................16

TexasHomesDaysonMarket........................................................................................................17

TexasHomeDaysonMarketbyPriceCohort................................................................................17

MajorMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket..............................................................................18

MajorMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket...................................................................................18

Prices.........................................................................................................................................19

UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice............................................................19

TexasExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice........................................................................19

MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice..........................................................................20

2

MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice...............................................................................20

TexasHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot...................................................................................21

MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot.........................................................21

MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot..............................................................22

TexasHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio.......................................................................................22

MajorMetrosExistingHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio............................................................23

MajorMetrosNewHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio.................................................................23

3

AboutthisReport

RealEstateCentereconomistscontinuouslymonitormanyfacetsoftheglobal,national,andTexaseconomies.TexasHousingInsightisasummaryofimportanteconomicindicatorsthathelpdiscerntrendsintheTexashousingmarkets.Allmonthlymeasurementsarecalculatedusingseasonallyadjusteddata,andpercentagechangesarecalculatedmonth-over-month,unlessstatedotherwise.

ThismonthlypublicationprovidesdataandinsightsontheTexashousingmarkets.Wehopeyoufindthemuseful.Yourfeedbackisalwaysappreciated.Sendcommentsandsuggestionstoinfo@recenter.tamu.edu.

Dr.JamesGaines,Dr.LuisTorres,andWesleyMiller

Data current as of April 27, 2017

© 2017, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

4

March2017Summary

TheTexashousingmarketadvancedinMarch,asoveralleconomicconditionsremainedfavorable.Texasemploymentcontinuedtorise,particularlyinthegoods-producingsectorwhereenergyproductionandhousingactivityincreased.WeakhousingsalesinFebruaryrelievedsomeofthemarketpressureandallowedthehousingsupplyitslargestexpansionsince2011.Thesupplyofhomesunder$200,000continuedtolagtherestofthemarketand,combinedwithrisingprices,presentsincreasedaffordabilityconcerns.

Supply*

TheTexasResidentialBusinessCycle(Coincident)Index,whichmeasurescurrentconstructionactivity,increasedmarginallyduetorisingwagesintheconstructionindustry.TheTexasResidentialConstructionLeadingIndex(RCLI),whichsignalsfuturedirectionalchangesintheresidentialconstructionbusinesscycle,reachedadecadehighashousingstartsandweightedbuildingpermitsaccelerated.

ThenumberofvacantdevelopedlotsincreasedthroughouttheTexasmajormetros,indicatingfuturesupplygrowth.DallasandHoustonledthestatewithover48,690and46,567vacantdevelopedlots,respectively.Moreover,thenumberofvacantdevelopedlotscontinuedtorecoverinAustin(21,222)andSanAntonio(19,263),increasing2.9percentand1.7percent,respectively.

Thenumberofstatewidemonthlysingle-familyhousingconstructionpermitsjumped11.5percenttoaten-yearhigh10,481,followingthisyear’sanemicstart.Texasledthecountryintotalpermitsissuedandwasrankedfifthinpermitspercapita.ConstructionpermitsrampedupacrosstheTexasUrbanTriangle.HoustonandDallasremainedthenationalleaders,issuing3,543permitsand2,405permits,respectively.FortWorthissued863—a45.4percentincreasesinceJanuary.PermitsinAustinandSanAntonioincreasedafterlagginginFebruary.Austinissuedadecadehigh1,547permits,whileSanAntonio(705)exhibiteda27.2percentincrease.

Texashousingstarts,whichgenerallylagconstructionpermits,increased26.7percentquarter-over-quarter—thestrongestfirstquarterinoveradecade.Quarterlystarts1wereupinDallas,Houston,andSanAntonio,increasingby4.6percent,5.3percent,and5.8percent,respectively.Startsdropped10.1percentinAustinbutshouldgainmomentumfollowingthismonth’spositivepermitnumbers.

Single-familynewconstructionvaluesinTexastickeddown1.3percent.Intheshortrun,residentialconstructionshouldshifttowardsmediumpricedhomes($200,000-$400,000)toalleviatecurrentmarketimbalances.SanAntonioconstructionvaluesslidforthesecondmonth

*Allmonthlymeasurementsarecalculatedusingseasonallyadjusteddata,andpercentagechangesarecalculatedmonth-over-month,unlessstatedotherwise.1Housingstartsforthemajormetropolitanareasarenotavailableatthemonthlyfrequency.

5

andweredown24.1percentfromJanuary.Conversely,constructionvaluesincreasedinAustinandHoustonby6.7percentand5.5percent,respectively.

Themonthsofinventory(MOI)intheU.S.settledat4.3months;aroundsixmonthsofinventoryisconsideredabalancedhousingmarket.InventorylevelsinTexasroseto3.7months,markingthelargestmonthlypercentagechangesinceJanuary2011.However,mostofthisexpansionoccurredfornewhomesandinthemediumpricerange,providinglittlerelieftotheaffordablehousingproblem;theMOIrosejust0.4percentforhomesunder$200,000.Thisbottompricecohortremainedthemostconstrictedat3.1monthsofinventory,illustratinghomebuilders’prioritizationofthehigher-endmarkettocombatincreasinginputcosts(laborandland).

Housingsupplyremainsparticularlyconstrainedinthemajormetropolitanareas.TheMOIforexistinghomesinDallasandFortWorthremainedundertwomonths,andinventoriesinAustin(2.2months)andSanAntonio(2.8months)settledwellbelowthestateaverage(3.4months).However,existinghomeinventoriesjumped5.1percentinHouston,pushingtheMOIabove3.5months.

RecentsupplyincreasesinTexasdrovethenewhomeMOIabove5.1months.SignificantinventorygrowthoccurredinAustin(10.7percent),Dallas(13.6percent),andSanAntonio(9.2percent).TheMOIrose5.9percentinFortWorth,raisinginventorylevelsabovefourmonthsforthefirsttimesinceOctober.Despitethesepositivetrends,thenewhomeMOIremainedlessthantheTexasaverageoffivemonthsforeverymajormetroexceptHouston(5.0months).

Demand

Texashousingdemandgrewsteadilyastheaveragenumberofdaysonmarket(DOM)settledat57daysforthethirdconsecutivemonth.The$200,000to$300,000pricecohortdrovethisdemand,withtheaveragehomesellingafterjust52days.Totalhousingsalesrose3.3percentafteraweakFebruary,increasingineverymajormetroandpricecohort.

Dallasexhibitedthelargestpercentageincreaseintotalhomesalesat5.5percentandledTexasinfirstquarternewhomesalesat7,722.Similarly,totalsalesinHoustonincreasedby4.8percent,whilequarterlynewhomesalesrose4.9percent.PopulationandmigrationtrendscontinuedtodrivetheHoustonandDallashousingmarkets.Conversely,totalsaleswereflatinAustinandSanAntonio,andnewhomesalespostedtheirsecondstraightquarterlydecline.

TheTexashomeownershipratefellfurtherbelowthenationalaverageinthefirstquarter,droppingto61.5percentasthenationalaverageremainedabove63.5percent.HomeownershipdeclinedinDallasandSanAntonioto61.5percentand58.4percent,respectively,followinglastquarter’sincrease.Austin’shomeownershiprateincreasedforthesecondstraightmonth,risingto58.4percent,whileHoustonapproachedthestateaverageat60.0percent.

InterestratesremainedstableastheFederalReserveraisedthefederalfundsratebyaquarterpointforthesecondtimeinthreemonths.Theten-yearU.S.Treasurybondtickedupto2.5

6

percent,reflectingaweaknationaljobsreportandturmoilintheMiddleEast.Furthermore,theFederalHomeLoanMortgageCorporation30-yearfixedratebalancedat4.2percentforthefourthconsecutivemonth.

Statewide,theexistinghomeDOMsustaineditsyearlongaverageof52days,indicatingstrongdemandforcheaperhousing.DallasandHoustonechoedthisphenomenon,maintainingthelowestDOMat31and35days,respectively.TheDOMinSanAntoniofellbelow47daysandhasdecreased15.1percentinsixmonths.DemandforexistinghomeseasedinAustin,astheDOMroseto42days—thehighestsinceJanuary2015.

ThedemandfornewhomesinTexassettledat93daysafterasurprisinglystrongFebruary.FortWorthandDallasremainedthehottestmarketsfornewhomes,withnewhomeDOMat77and78days,respectively.Theremainingmajormetrosexhibiteddemandcomparabletothestatewidelevel.TheDOMinAustin(96days)andSanAntonio(91days)accelerated9.4percentand15.8percent,respectively,whileHoustonshowedtheweakestdemand,sellingtheaveragehomeafter100days.

Prices

ThemedianhomepriceinTexasdeceleratedby0.8percentashousinginventoriesexpanded.Thesupplyincrease,whichconsistedprimarilyofnewhomes,wasunabletorelievepricepressuresintheexistinghomesmarket.Thestatewidemedianpriceforanexistinghome($210,847)roseforthethirdstraightmonth,increasing9.5percentyear-over-year.OftheTexasmetropolitanareas,AustinandDallasmaintainedthehighestmedianprices,postingrecordhighsat$289,014and$265,524,respectively.ExistinghomesinHoustonwereabove$216,000,whilepricesinFortWorth($207,272)declinedforthefirsttimesinceJune.Moreover,themedianpriceinSanAntoniotickeddownto$193,519,approximately$17,000lessthantheTexasmedian.

Thestatewidemedianpricefornewhomes($296,771)fell,albeitmildlyat0.2percent,andlaggedthenationalmedian,whichroseto$313,410.Medianpricesfell3.1percentand4.5percentinAustin($322,375)andDallas($355,903),respectivelybutwereflatinHoustonataround$315,000.DemandoutpacedinventoryincreasesinFortWorth($302,140)andSanAntonio($274,465),pushingupmedianprices2.5percentand8.0percent,respectively.

Inthepastsixyears,Texas’mediannewhomepriceexceededtheexistinghomepricebyanaverageof47.1percent.Thispricedifferentialresultedfromincreasesinhomesizesandlandcostsfornewhousing.Since2011,themediansquarefootagefornewhomeshasincreasedby5.0percentto2,389squarefeet.Additionally,themedianpricepersquarefootforanewhomeinTexaswasapproximately16.0percenthigherthanforanexistinghome.Austinledthestateinmedianpricepersquarefoot,forbothexistingandnewhomes,at$145and$143persquarefoot,respectively.However,thepricepersquarefootinDallasandFortWorthacceleratedoverthepastyearandreducedthegapbetweenAustinandtherestofTexas.

7

Thestatewidedifferencebetweenthelistingpriceandthesalespricefornewhomesfellatthestartof2014buthasnowflattenedasthedemandfornewhomeshaseased;alowerratioindicatesabuyer’smarket.Conversely,thisratiohasincreasedsteadilysince2011forexistinghomes.Inthepasttwoyears,thesale-price-to-list-priceratiohasconvergedinthenewandexistingmarketsaround0.96.However,thisconvergencehasnotoccurredinDallasandHouston,wheretheexistingratioremainstwopointshigherthantheratiofornewhomes.

8

Supply

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversityandFederalReserveBankofDallas

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

TXCoincidentIndex USCoincidentIndex TXLeadingIndex

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

UnitedStates Texas

Single-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)

ResidentialConstructionCoincidentandLeadingIndicator(IndexJan2007=100)

9

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.FortWorthismissingdataforSomervellCounty.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Sources:U.S.CensusBureauandBankofTokyo-MitsubishiUFJ

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington

Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand

SanAntonio-NewBraunfels

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

UnitedStates Texas

MajorMetrosSingle-FamilyHousingConstructionPermits(IndexJan2007=100)

HousingStarts(IndexJan2007=100)

10

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.

Source:Metrostudy

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:Metrostudy

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1Q03

3Q03

1Q04

3Q04

1Q05

3Q05

1Q06

3Q06

1Q07

3Q07

1Q08

3Q08

1Q09

3Q09

1Q10

3Q10

1Q11

3Q11

1Q12

3Q12

1Q13

3Q13

1Q14

3Q14

1Q15

3Q15

1Q16

3Q16

1Q17

Austin Dallas

Houston SanAntonio

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1Q03

3Q03

1Q04

3Q04

1Q05

3Q05

1Q06

3Q06

1Q07

3Q07

1Q08

3Q08

1Q09

3Q09

1Q10

3Q10

1Q11

3Q11

1Q12

3Q12

1Q13

3Q13

1Q14

3Q14

1Q15

3Q15

1Q16

3Q16

1Q17

Austin Dallas

Houston SanAntonio

VacantDevelopedLots(IndexQ12003=100)

MajorMetrosHousingStarts(IndexQ12003=100)

11

Note:Inflationadjusted.Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:DodgeAnalytics

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.MonthsofinventoryfortheUnitedStatesisestimatedusingweightsforallexistinghomesandnewsingle-familyhomes;newnonsingle-familyhomesarenotincluded.Texasincludesallexistingandnewhomes.Sources:U.S.CensusBureau,NationalAssociationofRealtors,andRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

40

55

70

85

100

115

130

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

TexasAustin-RoundRockDallas-FortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

UnitedStates Texas

TotalMonthsofInventory(Months)

TotalNewPrivateSingle-FamilyConstructionValue(IndexJan2007=100)

12

TexasExistingandNewHomeMonthsofInventory

(Months)

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity


2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

ExistingHomeMonthsofInventory

NewHomeMonthsofInventory

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

$0-$199,000 $200,000-$299,999$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,99$500,000+

TexasMonthsofInventorybyPriceCohort(IndexJan2011=100)

13

MajorMetrosExistingHomeMonthsofInventory(Months)



0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

Austin-RoundRockDallas-Plano-IrvingFortWorth-ArlingtonHouston-TheWoodlands-SugarLandSanAntonio-NewBraunfels

MajorMetrosNewHomeMonthsofInventory(Months)

14

Demand

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.SalesfortheUnitedStatesincludeallexistinghomesandnewsingle-familyhomes;newnon-single-familyhomesarenotincluded.Texasincludesallexistingandnewhomes.Sources:U.S.CensusBureau,NationalAssociationofRealtors,andRealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Note:SeasonallyadjustedsalesreportedbyMLSanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

556065707580859095100105110115

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

UnitedStates Texas

75100125150175200225250275300325350375400

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

$0-$199,000 $200,000-$299,999$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,99$500,000+

HousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)

TexasHousingSalesbyPriceCohort(IndexJan2011=100)

15

Note:SeasonallyadjustedsalesreportedbyMLSanddetrended.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:UnitedStatesCensusBureau

556065707580859095100105110115120125130

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17


60

61

62

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 17

UnitedStates Texas

MajorMetrosHousingSales(IndexJan2007=100)

HomeOwnershipRate(%)

16

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Source:UnitedStatesCensusBureau

Note:Seasonallyadjusted.Source:FederalHomeLoanMortgageCorporationandFederalReserveBoard

54

56

58

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I II IIIIV I

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 17

Austin Dallas Houston SanAntonio

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Jan-07

Jul-0

7

Jan-08

Jul-0

8

Jan-09

Jul-0

9

Jan-10

Jul-1

0

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

Mortgage Bond

30-YearMortgageRateand10-YearBondYield(Percent)

MajorMetrosHomeOwnershipRate(%)

17

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

Note:SeasonallyadjustedsalesreportedbyMLSanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

ExistingHomeDaysonMarketNewHomeDaysonMarket

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

115

125

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

$0-$199,000 $200,000-$299,999$300,000-$399,999 $400,000-$499,99$500,000+

TexasHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

TexasHomeDaysonMarketbyPriceCohort(Days)

18



25

35

45

55

65

75

85

95

105

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17


70

80

90

100

110

120

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

Austin-RoundRock Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand


MajorMetrosExistingHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

MajorMetrosNewHomesDaysonMarket(Days)

19

Prices

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.Source:FederalReserveBankofSt.Louis


160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

320,000

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

ExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice

NewHomeMedianSalesPrice

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

270,000

290,000

310,000

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

ExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice

NewHomeMedianSalesPrice

TexasExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

UnitedStatesExistingandNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

20

Note:Seasonallyadjustedanddetrended.Forsingle-familyhomes.

Source:RealEstateCenteratTexasA&MUniversity


120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

220,000

240,000

260,000

280,000

300,000

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

Austin-RoundRock Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington Houston-TheWoodlands-SugarLand


170,000

200,000

230,000

260,000

290,000

320,000

350,000

380,000

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17


MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianSalesPrice($)

21



70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

ExistingHomeMedianPricePSF

NewHomeMedianPricePSF

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



MajorMetrosExistingHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

TexasHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

22



75

85

95

105

115

125

135

145

155

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17


0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

ExistingHomeSale-to-ListPriceRatio

NewHomeSale-to-ListPriceRatio

TexasHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio(%)

MajorMetrosNewHomeMedianPricePerSquareFoot($)

23



0.90

0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



0.91

0.92

0.93

0.94

0.95

0.96

0.97

0.98

0.99

1.00

Jan-11

Jul-1

1

Jan-12

Jul-1

2

Jan-13

Jul-1

3

Jan-14

Jul-1

4

Jan-15

Jul-1

5

Jan-16

Jul-1

6

Jan-17

Austin-RoundRock

Dallas-Plano-Irving

FortWorth-Arlington



MajorMetrosExistingHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio(%)

MajorMetrosNewHomeSalePricetoListPriceRatio(%)

i

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MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL

Texas A&M University 2115 TAMU

College Station, TX 77843-2115

http://recenter.tamu.edu 979-845-2031

DIRECTOR

GARY W. MALER

MARIO A. ARRIAGA Conroe

RUSSELL CAIN Port Lavaca

ALVIN COLLINS Andrews

JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS Austin

DOUG ROBERTS, CHAIRMAN Austin

DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN Fort Worth

BESA MARTIN Boerne TED NELSON HoustonC. CLARK WELDER San AntonioBILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO Temple

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