TEXAS EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION NEEDS ASSESSMENT
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Transcript of TEXAS EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION NEEDS ASSESSMENT
TEXAS EARLY CHILDHOOD EDUCATION NEEDS
ASSESSMENTPresentation to the
Texas Early Learning Council
September 28, 2012
Project Partners
Ray Marshall Center for the Study of Human ResourcesLBJ School of Public Affairs University of Texas at Austin
Hobby Center for the
Study of Texas Rice University
Project Purpose
To give the state and organizationsserving young children
a clear picture of the nature of the population of young Texans
and the projected need for early education services
Project Scope Children ages 0 through 12
All children needing child care Population eligible for specific programs
(e.g., Head Start, CCDF, Pre-K)
Formal early childhood education and school-age care providers and slots
Quality programs accredited by a national or state quality measure
State of Texas and smaller geographic areas
Project conducted by only using existing data
Research Objectives
1. Estimate total children under age 13 and those eligible for ECE and school-age care
2. Document current supply of ECE and SAC
3. Conduct a gap analysis based on these data
4. Generate a comprehensive needs assessment analyzing Texas’ early childhood education and school-age care system
Understand and estimate the total number of children under age 13 and those eligible for early childhood
education programs
Objective 1:
Data Sources
U.S. Census Data, 2000 and 2010 Population of Texas children ages 0-12
Texas Department of Health Birth and death rates
American Community Survey, 2006-2010 Socioeconomic characteristics of
households
Types of Results
Change in 0-12 population, 2000-2010 Child population projections to 2015 and 2040 Socioeconomic characteristics of households with
children 0-12 in 2010 and projected to 2015 All results presented for:
Entire state Councils of Governments Metropolitan Areas Counties
Key Population Findings
Nearly 5 million Texas children ages 0-12 in 2010 Texas child population increased by 17% from 2000 to 2010
and accounted for over 50% of total US growth Growth expected to slow from 2010 to 2015 but still larger than
growth in any other state over past 10 years Growth concentrated within metro areas and dominated by
minorities Hispanic children were 49% of total in 2010 and projected to
make up 65% of growth to 2015 1.2 million children (24.9%) were living in poverty in 2010; 1.3
million (25.4%) projected to do so in 2015
Population Distribution for Ages 0-12, 2010
0-2 years old
3-4 years old
5-12 years old Total
1,151,310 777,163 3,066,796 4,995,269
0-2 years old
23%
3-4 years old
16%
5-12 years old
61%
0-2years old
3-4years old
5-12years old
Percent Change in Total 0-12 Populationfor Texas Counties, 2000 - 2010 Counties, 2010
Percent Change<100 Persons in 2000 (3)Population decline (118)No change or less than 10% (69)At least 10% but less than State growth [17.2% (26)]Greater or equal to State growth [17.2% (38)] Source US Census 2000 and 2010, SF1
Understand and document the current supply across the state of Texas
of formal providers of early childhood education programs and services
and school-age care for children under the age of 13
Objective 2:
Supply Data Sources
DFPS(child care licencsing)
ERC(Pre-K, PPCD, IDEA)
HHS ACF(Head Start)
Types of Supply Results Total unduplicated formal supply of early care
and education and services Specific supply results for:
Child care centers and family homes Pre-kindergarten (public and private) Military child care Head Start and Early Head Start CCDF subsidies IDEA services (ECI and PPCD) School-age care (partial)
Number of providers and number of slots for state, COGs, MSAs and counties if data available
Key Supply Findings Over 23,000 unduplicated providers of ECE in 2010 (centers,
homes, public Pre-K and military) had capacity to serve nearly 860,000 children, ages 0-4
35% of providers and 67% of slots in licensed child care centers
13% of providers and 26% of slots in public Pre-K
Other providers: Head Start (1,260 providers serving 93,000 children)
Private Pre-K (1,064 providers serving 55,000 children)
CCDF (12,600 providers serving nearly 140,000 children)
ECI (56 providers serving 66,600 children)
PPCD (4,000 providers serving 42,000 children)
2010 Total Supply of Unduplicated
Formal ECE Providers and Slots for Texas Children 0-4
Total Unduplicated Formal ECE Slots Ages 0-4 by County, 2010
Includes child care centers, family homes, public Pre-K and military.
Slots< 100 (44)100 – 249 (47)250 – 499 (40)500 – 999 (43)1,000 or More (80)
Texas School Ready!
Texas Rising Star
National Association for Education of Young Children
National Association for Family Child Care
National Early Childhood Program Accreditation
National Association of Child Care Professionals
Association of Christian Schools International
National Afterschool Association
Data Sources for Measuring Quality
Every COG and MSA has at least one provider meeting some type of quality standard
Only 160 of 254 have at least one provider meeting any type of quality standard
Unduplicated list of quality providers by county could not be determined due to lack of common identifiers across data sources
Distribution by COG, MSA and county provided for TSR! And TRS
Key Quality Findings
Distribution of TRS Sites by County
Conduct a gap analysis based on the completion of objectives 1 and 2
Compare gaps in the demand for services and the available supply
Identify the gap between the need for high-quality services and the availability of such services
Objective 3:
Gap Analysis Key Findings Unduplicated formal ECE slots in 2010 could serve 45% of
Texas children 0-4 and 78% of children with working parents Also measured for 0-2, 3-4 by COG, MSA and county
Model estimates for 20 largest counties of relative gaps (after controlling for family structure, employment and income):
Largest relative supply in Galveston, Webb and Bell counties Smallest relative supply in Brazoria and Dallas counties Current supply compared to population growth through 2040
Service gaps estimated for specific programs (e.g. public Pre- K, Head Start) if possible but data gaps prevented full analysis
Biggest data gaps were in measurement of school-age care and linking quality information to provider information
Proportion of Unduplicated Formal ECE Slots by Countyper 100 Children Under Age 5 in 2010
Relative Supply of Current Care by Projected Child Population Growth from 2010 to 2015 for 20 Largest Counties
Bell
Bexar
Brazoria
Cameron
Collin
Dallas
Denton
El Paso
Fort Bend
Galveston
Harris
Hidalgo
Jefferson
Lubbock
Montgomery
Nueces
TarrantTravis
Webb
Williamson
-5.0%
-2.5%
0.0%
2.5%
5.0%
7.5%
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
App
aren
t ove
rsup
ply
of c
hild
car
e sl
ots
Projected County population growth, 2010-2015, children 0-4
Oversupply
Undersupply
Complete comprehensive needs assessment Currently refining conclusions and recommendations
Outside and peer reviews of all four reports
Technical review of all statistical work
Documentation of all data sets and methods Public dissemination of findings
University of Texas LBJ School of Public Affairs October 29, 2012
Electronic publication of all reports
Remaining Work
For Additional Information
Deanna SchexnayderRay Marshall Center for the Study of Human ResourcesLyndon B. Johnson School of Public AffairsThe University of Texas At Austin(512) [email protected]