Texas Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections ...
38
Texas Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections: A Look at the Hispanic Population in Texas and the Austin Area Presented to Hispanic Austin Leadership October 13, 2020
Transcript of Texas Demographic Trends, Characteristics, and Projections ...
Microsoft PowerPoint -
2020-10-13_HispanicAustinLeadership.pptxTexas Demographic Trends,
Characteristics, and Projections: A Look at the Hispanic Population
in Texas and the Austin Area
Presented to
3
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,488,084 952,333 10.0%
Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,614,893 890,353 13.2%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,278,717 886,429 13.9%
Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,758,736 729,417 14.5%
Population Growth of Select States, 2000-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census; 2019 Vintage population estimates
Largest U.S. Cities, 2019 Rank Place Census 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1 New York, NY 8,175,133 8,272,948 8,346,693 8,396,091 8,433,806 8,463,049 8,469,153 8,437,478 8,390,081 8,336,817
2 Los Angeles, CA 3,792,621 3,820,876 3,851,202 3,881,622 3,909,901 3,938,568 3,963,226 3,975,788 3,977,596 3,979,576
3 Chicago, IL 2,695,598 2,708,114 2,719,141 2,725,731 2,727,066 2,724,344 2,716,723 2,711,069 2,701,423 2,693,976
4 Houston, TX 2,099,451 2,126,032 2,161,593 2,199,391 2,241,826 2,286,908 2,309,544 2,316,750 2,318,573 2,320,268
5 Phoenix, AZ 1,445,632 1,469,796 1,499,274 1,526,491 1,555,445 1,583,690 1,612,199 1,633,560 1,654,675 1,680,992
6 Philadelphia, PA 1,526,006 1,540,466 1,551,824 1,558,313 1,565,460 1,571,065 1,576,051 1,580,601 1,583,592 1,584,064
7 San Antonio, TX 1,327,407 1,357,120 1,383,075 1,408,339 1,435,456 1,464,043 1,487,843 1,511,154 1,530,016 1,547,253
8 San Diego, CA 1,307,402 1,319,592 1,336,776 1,355,320 1,375,831 1,387,323 1,402,089 1,412,621 1,421,917 1,423,851
9 Dallas, TX 1,197,816 1,218,282 1,242,115 1,258,835 1,279,098 1,301,329 1,323,916 1,342,479 1,341,802 1,343,573
10 San Jose, CA 945,942 970,369 983,530 1,001,279 1,014,273 1,025,980 1,030,242 1,032,335 1,028,020 1,021,795
11 Austin, TX 790,390 828,459 854,482 875,003 901,170 921,114 939,447 951,553 962,469 978,908
12 Jacksonville, FL 821,784 829,609 837,013 842,735 852,494 865,836 880,520 892,025 902,437 911,507
13 Fort Worth, TX 741,206 764,142 781,046 796,073 815,057 835,356 856,177 874,809 893,216 909,585
14 Columbus, OH 787,033 800,607 812,740 827,797 841,673 854,950 866,894 881,694 890,869 898,553
15 Charlotte, NC 731,424 754,829 773,264 792,047 807,400 825,668 843,117 860,002 872,514 885,708
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates 4
Rank Name April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Numeric Change
Percent Change
1 .DallasFort WorthArlington, TX 6,366,537 7,455,756 7,573,136 1,206,599 19.0 2 .HoustonThe WoodlandsSugar Land, TX 5,920,487 4,849,209 7,066,141 1,145,654 19.4 3 .PhoenixMesaChandler, AZ 4,193,129 4,849,209 4,948,203 755,074 18.0 4 .AtlantaSandy SpringsAlpharetta, GA 5,286,718 6,976,147 6,020,364 733,646 13.9 5 .WashingtonArlingtonAlexandria, DCVAMDWV 5,649,688 5,945,303 6,280,487 630,799 11.2 6 .MiamiFort LauderdalePompano Beach, FL 5,566,274 6,143,837 6,166,488 600,214 10.8 7 .SeattleTacomaBellevue, WA 3,439,808 3,935,179 3,979,845 540,037 15.7 8 .AustinRound RockGeorgetown, TX 1,716,323 2,165,497 2,227,083 510,760 29.8 9 .OrlandoKissimmeeSanford, FL 2,134,399 2,574,838 2,608,147 473,748 22.2
10 .RiversideSan BernardinoOntario, CA 4,224,948 4,612,542 4,650,631 425,683 10.1 11 .DenverAuroraLakewood, CO 2,543,608 2,931,665 2,967,239 423,631 16.7 12 .TampaSt. PetersburgClearwater, FL 2,783,485 3,154,649 3,194,831 411,346 14.8 13 .San AntonioNew Braunfels, TX 2,142,520 2,512,379 2,550,960 408,440 19.1 14 .San FranciscoOaklandBerkeley, CA 4,335,593 4,726,314 4,731,803 396,210 9.1 15 .CharlotteConcordGastonia, NCSC 2,243,963 2,592,950 2,636,883 392,920 17.5
5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates
Top 15 Metros in Numeric Growth, 2010-2019
Rank Geographic Area Population Estimate Change, 2018 to 2019
July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Number Percent 1 Leander, TX 55,924 62,608 6,684 12.0 2 Apex, NC 53,859 59,300 5,441 10.1 3 Chico, CA 94,342 103,301 8,959 9.5 4 Doral, FL 60,762 65,741 4,979 8.2 5 Bentonville, AR 51,103 54,909 3,806 7.4 6 Meridian, ID 106,464 114,161 7,697 7.2 7 Georgetown, TX 74,275 79,604 5,329 7.2 8 Buckeye, AZ 74,339 79,620 5,281 7.1 9 New Braunfels, TX 84,495 90,209 5,714 6.8 10 Redmond, WA 67,436 71,929 4,493 6.7 11 Frisco, TX 188,452 200,490 12,038 6.4 12 Fort Myers, FL 82,229 87,103 4,874 5.9 13 Lehi, UT 65,958 69,724 3,766 5.7 14 Castle Rock, CO 65,000 68,484 3,484 5.4 15 Milpitas, CA 80,208 84,196 3,988 5.0
6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates; Note: among places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2018
15 Fastest Growing Large Cities and Towns between 2018-2019
7
70,535 76,954 82,449 95,661 110,155 111,983 110,417
104,976
65,044
Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Net Migration
Components of Population Change, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage population estimates
8
Population Change, 2010 to 2019 Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Migration
Bastrop County 14,506 21.6% 0.6% 78.4% Caldwell County 5,609 31.6% 3.3% 65.2% Hays County 73,088 17.3% 3.2% 78.2% Travis County 249,510 38.6% 20.2% 40.2% Williamson County 168,047 21.3% 5.9% 71.9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage population estimates
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Migration Flows, 2018
47%
1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 7% 8%
CA FL MO MD IL LA KS NY VA HI … AR UT WA ME AZ KY NE CO OK GA
Estimated Percent of Total Net-Migrant Flows to and from Texas and Top Sending and Receiving States, 2018
9
10
Fort Bend County 1,242 267
Bastrop County 1,228 1,416
Bell County 1,052 509
Collin County 1,003 349
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey County to County Migration Flows, 20132017
Estimated County-to-County Migration Flows, Travis County, 2013- 2017
As Texas grows, it ages and continues to diversify.
12
53.6%
Hispanic NH Black NH White NH Asian NH Other
Share of Contribution to Total Population Change, 20102019 Numeric Change, 20102019
86.4% of growth has been from minority groups.
Numeric and Percent Contribution by Race/Ethnicity of Total Population Change, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
13
There are 60.6 million Hispanics in the U.S. in 2019, making up 18% of the U.S. population.
NH White 41%
NH Black 12%
Race/Ethnicity 2019
Population Estimate
NH Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander 25,861
15
Total NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Asian NH Other Travis 1,273,954 622,339 428,571 102,257 91,682 29,105 Williamson 590,551 342,586 146,602 39,330 46,076 15,957 Hays 230,191 120,830 92,274 8,942 3,536 4,609 Bastrop 88,723 45,358 35,189 5,812 642 1,722 Caldwell 43,664 16,696 23,488 2,481 392 607 Blanco 11,931 9,125 2,348 129 105 224 Total 2,239,014 1,156,934 728,472 158,951 142,433 52,224
Race/Ethnicity Composition, Central Texas Counties, 2019
Total NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic Bastrop 88,723 51.1% 6.6% 0.7% 1.9% 39.7% Blanco 11,931 76.5% 1.1% 0.9% 1.9% 19.7% Caldwell 43,664 38.2% 5.7% 0.9% 1.4% 53.8% Hays 230,191 52.5% 3.9% 1.5% 2.0% 40.1% Travis 1,273,954 48.9% 8.0% 7.2% 2.3% 33.6% Williamson 590,551 58.0% 6.7% 7.8% 2.7% 24.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
Race/Ethnicity Composition, 2019
16
Total NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic Bastrop 19.6% 6.5% 4.4% 41.1% 24.4% 45.5% Blanco 13.7% 9.3% 108.1% 114.3% 76.4% 23.0% Caldwell 14.7% 1.2% 0.2% 13.3% 43.2% 31.1% Hays 46.5% 30.8% 78.6% 105.0% 75.4% 66.6% Travis 24.4% 19.8% 22.7% 55.3% 47.1% 25.0% Williamson 39.7% 26.8% 58.0% 127.2% 72.1% 49.5%
Percent Change by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 2019
Percent Contribution by Race/Ethnicity of Total Population Change, 2010 to 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
Race/Ethnicity Composition, Central Texas Counties, 2010-2019
Total NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic Bastrop 14552 19.1% 1.7% 1.3% 2.3% 75.6% Blanco 1434 54.0% 4.7% 3.9% 6.8% 30.6% Caldwell 5598 3.6% 0.1% 0.8% 3.3% 99.4% Hays 73084 39.0% 5.4% 2.5% 2.7% 50.5% Travis 249688 41.3% 7.6% 13.1% 3.7% 34.4% Williamson 167872 43.1% 8.6% 15.4% 4.0% 28.9%
17
Mexican 75.3% Other Latino 3.8% Honduran 4.3% Cuban 3.3% Puerto Rican 2.6% Spanish, Spaniard 2.5% Salvadoran 2.3% Guatemalan 1.5% Colombian 0.8% Peruvian 0.6% Venezuelan 0.5% Costa Rican 0.5% Nicaraguan 0.4% Chilean 0.4% Panamanian 0.4% Argentinean 0.3% Bolivian 0.2% Ecuadorian 0.1% Dominican 0.1%
Country of Origin of Hispanics, Austin, 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
18
200,000
100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Under 18 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 Plus
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
Numeric Change in Age Group by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
19Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
10,000
5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Under 18 1824 2544 4564 65 Plus
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Other
Numeric Change in Age Group by Race/Ethnicity, Travis County, 2010-2019
20
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Total NH White Black Asian Hispanic
Population 25 and Older with High School Diploma and Above, Texas, 2015-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
Population 25 and Older with High School Diploma and Above, Travis County, 2015-2019
88.3 88.8 90.3 89.3 89.8
97.5 97.2 97.3 97.9 98.1
90.3 90 90.2 89.9 91.4 91.1 92.3 93.7 92.9 91.5
69.2 70.8 76.1
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
100
Total NH White Black Asian Hispanic
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
23
28.4 28.9 29.6 30.3 30.8 37.2 37.6 38.6 39.3 39.4
22.4 23.1 24.2 25 25.7
57.7 56.7 59.2 59.9 60.6
13.2 14.2 14.5 15.2 16.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Pe rc en
Total NH White Black Asian Hispanic
Population 25 and Older with Bachelors Degree and Above, Texas, 2015-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
24
Population 25 and Older with Bachelors Degree and Above, Travis County, 2015-2019
47.2 47.2 49.5 51.9 52.6
61.1 60.9 62.5 65.2 66.3
26.1 26 27.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Pe rc en
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
Texas Travis County
Female 85.2% 89.3%
Male 84.1% 90.4%
Hispanic 68.3% 73.4%
Black 91.2% 91.4%
Asian Female 88.2% 88.8%
Asian Male 90.7% 94.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity and Sex, 2019
Texas Travis County
Bachelor’s Degree and above 30.8% 52.6% Female 31.1% 53.2% Male 30.4% 52.0%
Hispanic 16.1% 28.0% Hispanic Female 17.4% 28.6% Hispanic Male 14.8% 27.4%
NH White 39.4% 66.3% NH White Female 38.9% 66.9% NH White Male 40.0% 65.6%
Black 25.7% 29.1% Black Female 27.5% 34.9% Black Male 23.6% 23.0%
Asian 60.6% 76.5% Asian Female 57.4% 71.8% Asian Male 64.1% 81.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity and Sex, 2019
27
$74,974
$91,706
$70,079
$78,905
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
M ed
us eh
ol d In co m e (A dj us te d Do
lla rs )
Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
28
Austin Metro $46,724
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
29
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
30
Hispanics and the American Electorate
A record 32 million Latinos are projected to be eligible to vote in 2020.
2020 is the first time Hispanics will make up the largest racial and ethnic minority in the electorate.
Texas is home to 5.6 million Latino eligible voters, making up 30% of all eligible voters in the state.
Source: Pew Research Center, Key Facts about U.S. Latinos, https://pewrsr.ch/2oH4TEC
Population Projections
25.1
34.9
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2030
11.4 12.8
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
M ill io ns
Projected Population Change and Percent of Total Change by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2030
34
14.1% 14.7%
Numeric Change Percent of Total Population Change Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
35
1,024,266
1,540,812
422,679
830,421
157,107
347,120
Population Projections, Austin Metro Counties, 2010-2030
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
36
1,345,642
1,015,141
Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Austin Metro Area, 2010-2030
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
A complete 2020 Census count is critical to Texas.
Lila Valencia, Ph.D. (512) 9363542
[email protected]
demographics.texas.gov
@TexasDemography
38
Presented to
3
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 10,488,084 952,333 10.0%
Washington 5,894,121 6,724,540 7,614,893 890,353 13.2%
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 7,278,717 886,429 13.9%
Colorado 5,029,196 5,029,196 5,758,736 729,417 14.5%
Population Growth of Select States, 2000-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 and 2010 Decennial Census; 2019 Vintage population estimates
Largest U.S. Cities, 2019 Rank Place Census 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
1 New York, NY 8,175,133 8,272,948 8,346,693 8,396,091 8,433,806 8,463,049 8,469,153 8,437,478 8,390,081 8,336,817
2 Los Angeles, CA 3,792,621 3,820,876 3,851,202 3,881,622 3,909,901 3,938,568 3,963,226 3,975,788 3,977,596 3,979,576
3 Chicago, IL 2,695,598 2,708,114 2,719,141 2,725,731 2,727,066 2,724,344 2,716,723 2,711,069 2,701,423 2,693,976
4 Houston, TX 2,099,451 2,126,032 2,161,593 2,199,391 2,241,826 2,286,908 2,309,544 2,316,750 2,318,573 2,320,268
5 Phoenix, AZ 1,445,632 1,469,796 1,499,274 1,526,491 1,555,445 1,583,690 1,612,199 1,633,560 1,654,675 1,680,992
6 Philadelphia, PA 1,526,006 1,540,466 1,551,824 1,558,313 1,565,460 1,571,065 1,576,051 1,580,601 1,583,592 1,584,064
7 San Antonio, TX 1,327,407 1,357,120 1,383,075 1,408,339 1,435,456 1,464,043 1,487,843 1,511,154 1,530,016 1,547,253
8 San Diego, CA 1,307,402 1,319,592 1,336,776 1,355,320 1,375,831 1,387,323 1,402,089 1,412,621 1,421,917 1,423,851
9 Dallas, TX 1,197,816 1,218,282 1,242,115 1,258,835 1,279,098 1,301,329 1,323,916 1,342,479 1,341,802 1,343,573
10 San Jose, CA 945,942 970,369 983,530 1,001,279 1,014,273 1,025,980 1,030,242 1,032,335 1,028,020 1,021,795
11 Austin, TX 790,390 828,459 854,482 875,003 901,170 921,114 939,447 951,553 962,469 978,908
12 Jacksonville, FL 821,784 829,609 837,013 842,735 852,494 865,836 880,520 892,025 902,437 911,507
13 Fort Worth, TX 741,206 764,142 781,046 796,073 815,057 835,356 856,177 874,809 893,216 909,585
14 Columbus, OH 787,033 800,607 812,740 827,797 841,673 854,950 866,894 881,694 890,869 898,553
15 Charlotte, NC 731,424 754,829 773,264 792,047 807,400 825,668 843,117 860,002 872,514 885,708
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates 4
Rank Name April 1, 2010 July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Numeric Change
Percent Change
1 .DallasFort WorthArlington, TX 6,366,537 7,455,756 7,573,136 1,206,599 19.0 2 .HoustonThe WoodlandsSugar Land, TX 5,920,487 4,849,209 7,066,141 1,145,654 19.4 3 .PhoenixMesaChandler, AZ 4,193,129 4,849,209 4,948,203 755,074 18.0 4 .AtlantaSandy SpringsAlpharetta, GA 5,286,718 6,976,147 6,020,364 733,646 13.9 5 .WashingtonArlingtonAlexandria, DCVAMDWV 5,649,688 5,945,303 6,280,487 630,799 11.2 6 .MiamiFort LauderdalePompano Beach, FL 5,566,274 6,143,837 6,166,488 600,214 10.8 7 .SeattleTacomaBellevue, WA 3,439,808 3,935,179 3,979,845 540,037 15.7 8 .AustinRound RockGeorgetown, TX 1,716,323 2,165,497 2,227,083 510,760 29.8 9 .OrlandoKissimmeeSanford, FL 2,134,399 2,574,838 2,608,147 473,748 22.2
10 .RiversideSan BernardinoOntario, CA 4,224,948 4,612,542 4,650,631 425,683 10.1 11 .DenverAuroraLakewood, CO 2,543,608 2,931,665 2,967,239 423,631 16.7 12 .TampaSt. PetersburgClearwater, FL 2,783,485 3,154,649 3,194,831 411,346 14.8 13 .San AntonioNew Braunfels, TX 2,142,520 2,512,379 2,550,960 408,440 19.1 14 .San FranciscoOaklandBerkeley, CA 4,335,593 4,726,314 4,731,803 396,210 9.1 15 .CharlotteConcordGastonia, NCSC 2,243,963 2,592,950 2,636,883 392,920 17.5
5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates
Top 15 Metros in Numeric Growth, 2010-2019
Rank Geographic Area Population Estimate Change, 2018 to 2019
July 1, 2018 July 1, 2019 Number Percent 1 Leander, TX 55,924 62,608 6,684 12.0 2 Apex, NC 53,859 59,300 5,441 10.1 3 Chico, CA 94,342 103,301 8,959 9.5 4 Doral, FL 60,762 65,741 4,979 8.2 5 Bentonville, AR 51,103 54,909 3,806 7.4 6 Meridian, ID 106,464 114,161 7,697 7.2 7 Georgetown, TX 74,275 79,604 5,329 7.2 8 Buckeye, AZ 74,339 79,620 5,281 7.1 9 New Braunfels, TX 84,495 90,209 5,714 6.8 10 Redmond, WA 67,436 71,929 4,493 6.7 11 Frisco, TX 188,452 200,490 12,038 6.4 12 Fort Myers, FL 82,229 87,103 4,874 5.9 13 Lehi, UT 65,958 69,724 3,766 5.7 14 Castle Rock, CO 65,000 68,484 3,484 5.4 15 Milpitas, CA 80,208 84,196 3,988 5.0
6Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage Population Estimates; Note: among places with populations of 50,000 or more in 2018
15 Fastest Growing Large Cities and Towns between 2018-2019
7
70,535 76,954 82,449 95,661 110,155 111,983 110,417
104,976
65,044
Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Net Migration
Components of Population Change, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage population estimates
8
Population Change, 2010 to 2019 Natural Increase International Migration Domestic Migration
Bastrop County 14,506 21.6% 0.6% 78.4% Caldwell County 5,609 31.6% 3.3% 65.2% Hays County 73,088 17.3% 3.2% 78.2% Travis County 249,510 38.6% 20.2% 40.2% Williamson County 168,047 21.3% 5.9% 71.9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2019 Vintage population estimates
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, State to State Migration Flows, 2018
47%
1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 2% 3% 5% 7% 8%
CA FL MO MD IL LA KS NY VA HI … AR UT WA ME AZ KY NE CO OK GA
Estimated Percent of Total Net-Migrant Flows to and from Texas and Top Sending and Receiving States, 2018
9
10
Fort Bend County 1,242 267
Bastrop County 1,228 1,416
Bell County 1,052 509
Collin County 1,003 349
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey County to County Migration Flows, 20132017
Estimated County-to-County Migration Flows, Travis County, 2013- 2017
As Texas grows, it ages and continues to diversify.
12
53.6%
Hispanic NH Black NH White NH Asian NH Other
Share of Contribution to Total Population Change, 20102019 Numeric Change, 20102019
86.4% of growth has been from minority groups.
Numeric and Percent Contribution by Race/Ethnicity of Total Population Change, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
13
There are 60.6 million Hispanics in the U.S. in 2019, making up 18% of the U.S. population.
NH White 41%
NH Black 12%
Race/Ethnicity 2019
Population Estimate
NH Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander 25,861
15
Total NH White Hispanic NH Black NH Asian NH Other Travis 1,273,954 622,339 428,571 102,257 91,682 29,105 Williamson 590,551 342,586 146,602 39,330 46,076 15,957 Hays 230,191 120,830 92,274 8,942 3,536 4,609 Bastrop 88,723 45,358 35,189 5,812 642 1,722 Caldwell 43,664 16,696 23,488 2,481 392 607 Blanco 11,931 9,125 2,348 129 105 224 Total 2,239,014 1,156,934 728,472 158,951 142,433 52,224
Race/Ethnicity Composition, Central Texas Counties, 2019
Total NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic Bastrop 88,723 51.1% 6.6% 0.7% 1.9% 39.7% Blanco 11,931 76.5% 1.1% 0.9% 1.9% 19.7% Caldwell 43,664 38.2% 5.7% 0.9% 1.4% 53.8% Hays 230,191 52.5% 3.9% 1.5% 2.0% 40.1% Travis 1,273,954 48.9% 8.0% 7.2% 2.3% 33.6% Williamson 590,551 58.0% 6.7% 7.8% 2.7% 24.8%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
Race/Ethnicity Composition, 2019
16
Total NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic Bastrop 19.6% 6.5% 4.4% 41.1% 24.4% 45.5% Blanco 13.7% 9.3% 108.1% 114.3% 76.4% 23.0% Caldwell 14.7% 1.2% 0.2% 13.3% 43.2% 31.1% Hays 46.5% 30.8% 78.6% 105.0% 75.4% 66.6% Travis 24.4% 19.8% 22.7% 55.3% 47.1% 25.0% Williamson 39.7% 26.8% 58.0% 127.2% 72.1% 49.5%
Percent Change by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 2019
Percent Contribution by Race/Ethnicity of Total Population Change, 2010 to 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
Race/Ethnicity Composition, Central Texas Counties, 2010-2019
Total NH White NH Black NH Asian NH Other Hispanic Bastrop 14552 19.1% 1.7% 1.3% 2.3% 75.6% Blanco 1434 54.0% 4.7% 3.9% 6.8% 30.6% Caldwell 5598 3.6% 0.1% 0.8% 3.3% 99.4% Hays 73084 39.0% 5.4% 2.5% 2.7% 50.5% Travis 249688 41.3% 7.6% 13.1% 3.7% 34.4% Williamson 167872 43.1% 8.6% 15.4% 4.0% 28.9%
17
Mexican 75.3% Other Latino 3.8% Honduran 4.3% Cuban 3.3% Puerto Rican 2.6% Spanish, Spaniard 2.5% Salvadoran 2.3% Guatemalan 1.5% Colombian 0.8% Peruvian 0.6% Venezuelan 0.5% Costa Rican 0.5% Nicaraguan 0.4% Chilean 0.4% Panamanian 0.4% Argentinean 0.3% Bolivian 0.2% Ecuadorian 0.1% Dominican 0.1%
Country of Origin of Hispanics, Austin, 2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
18
200,000
100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
Under 18 18 to 24 25 to 44 45 to 64 65 Plus
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Asian NH Other
Numeric Change in Age Group by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
19Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2019 Population Estimates
10,000
5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Under 18 1824 2544 4564 65 Plus
NH White NH Black Hispanic NH Other
Numeric Change in Age Group by Race/Ethnicity, Travis County, 2010-2019
20
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
Total NH White Black Asian Hispanic
Population 25 and Older with High School Diploma and Above, Texas, 2015-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
Population 25 and Older with High School Diploma and Above, Travis County, 2015-2019
88.3 88.8 90.3 89.3 89.8
97.5 97.2 97.3 97.9 98.1
90.3 90 90.2 89.9 91.4 91.1 92.3 93.7 92.9 91.5
69.2 70.8 76.1
50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
100
Total NH White Black Asian Hispanic
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
23
28.4 28.9 29.6 30.3 30.8 37.2 37.6 38.6 39.3 39.4
22.4 23.1 24.2 25 25.7
57.7 56.7 59.2 59.9 60.6
13.2 14.2 14.5 15.2 16.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Pe rc en
Total NH White Black Asian Hispanic
Population 25 and Older with Bachelors Degree and Above, Texas, 2015-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
24
Population 25 and Older with Bachelors Degree and Above, Travis County, 2015-2019
47.2 47.2 49.5 51.9 52.6
61.1 60.9 62.5 65.2 66.3
26.1 26 27.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Pe rc en
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
Texas Travis County
Female 85.2% 89.3%
Male 84.1% 90.4%
Hispanic 68.3% 73.4%
Black 91.2% 91.4%
Asian Female 88.2% 88.8%
Asian Male 90.7% 94.2% Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity and Sex, 2019
Texas Travis County
Bachelor’s Degree and above 30.8% 52.6% Female 31.1% 53.2% Male 30.4% 52.0%
Hispanic 16.1% 28.0% Hispanic Female 17.4% 28.6% Hispanic Male 14.8% 27.4%
NH White 39.4% 66.3% NH White Female 38.9% 66.9% NH White Male 40.0% 65.6%
Black 25.7% 29.1% Black Female 27.5% 34.9% Black Male 23.6% 23.0%
Asian 60.6% 76.5% Asian Female 57.4% 71.8% Asian Male 64.1% 81.3%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
Educational Attainment by Race/Ethnicity and Sex, 2019
27
$74,974
$91,706
$70,079
$78,905
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
M ed
us eh
ol d In co m e (A dj us te d Do
lla rs )
Median Household Income by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2019
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
28
Austin Metro $46,724
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
29
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey, 1Year Estimates
30
Hispanics and the American Electorate
A record 32 million Latinos are projected to be eligible to vote in 2020.
2020 is the first time Hispanics will make up the largest racial and ethnic minority in the electorate.
Texas is home to 5.6 million Latino eligible voters, making up 30% of all eligible voters in the state.
Source: Pew Research Center, Key Facts about U.S. Latinos, https://pewrsr.ch/2oH4TEC
Population Projections
25.1
34.9
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2030
11.4 12.8
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
M ill io ns
Projected Population Change and Percent of Total Change by Race/Ethnicity, Texas, 2010-2030
34
14.1% 14.7%
Numeric Change Percent of Total Population Change Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
35
1,024,266
1,540,812
422,679
830,421
157,107
347,120
Population Projections, Austin Metro Counties, 2010-2030
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
36
1,345,642
1,015,141
Population Projections by Race/Ethnicity, Austin Metro Area, 2010-2030
Source: Texas Demographic Center 2018 Population Projections
A complete 2020 Census count is critical to Texas.
Lila Valencia, Ph.D. (512) 9363542
[email protected]
demographics.texas.gov
@TexasDemography
38
