Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.
-
Upload
patrick-walker -
Category
Documents
-
view
220 -
download
0
Transcript of Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.
![Page 1: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Testimonials
Plausibility
![Page 2: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Research is probabilistic
![Page 3: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Research reveals tendencies
![Page 4: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Single cases can be found in support of any belief
![Page 5: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Single cases can be found to refute any claim
![Page 6: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
How much data before the tendency is revealed?
![Page 7: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
How much data before the tendency is revealed?
![Page 8: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Testimonials – even large numbers of people can be wrong
![Page 9: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Homeopathy• History – from “humours” to “dynamic system”
• Today – 100K physicians, 500M patients
• Drugs – 3K drugs, including Rabies!
• Machines:
James Randi video - http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWE1tH93G9U
![Page 10: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Self-Deception
• How can an honest person mistake worthless treatment for one that works?
• We are going to talk about 10 Competing Explanations
![Page 11: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
10 Competing Explanations
• The Placebo Effect ► The simple expectation of recovery sometimes
has a positive effect
![Page 12: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
10 Competing Explanations
• Spontaneous Remission ► Sometimes diseases disappear without any
treatment
![Page 13: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
10 Competing Explanations
• The Disease Ran its Natural Course ► If a disease is not chronic or fatal, it may be self-
limiting
![Page 14: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
10 Competing Explanations
• The Cyclical Nature of Many Diseases ► Even chronic conditions go through phases
![Page 15: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
10 Competing Explanations
• Misdiagnosis ► There may be no disease in first place
![Page 16: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
10 Competing Explanations
• The “Worried Well” ► Some people with no disease nonetheless seek
health care
![Page 17: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
10 Competing Explanations
• Symptomatic Relief ► Alleviation of symptoms does not necessarily
mean the disease has been cured
![Page 18: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
10 Competing Explanations
• Hedged Bets ► People sometimes simultaneously receive
evidenced-based health care
![Page 19: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
10 Competing Explanations
• Derivative Benefits ► Purely psychological benefits can lead to people
taking better care of themselves
![Page 20: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
10 Competing Explanations
• Psychological Distortions of Reality ► Cognitive dissonance can distort perceptions of
the effectiveness of treatment
![Page 21: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Cognitive Dissonance
• Cognitive dissonance is a psychological term which describes the uncomfortable tension that comes from holding two conflicting thoughts at the same time.
• To reduce the dissonance, people modify one of the two thoughts, or invent new thoughts
![Page 22: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
![Page 23: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
UFOs
• Some respectable people believe in UFOs
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQgfaLFTl4U • Its world-wide
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbSSTqlanS8
• Some sightings defy explanation http://www.crowdedskies.com/ufo_videos.htm
• Some sightings appear like hoaxes
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T67TkiyEOXg • Some sightings are pretty cool! http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7027173637881161714
![Page 24: Testimonials Plausibility. Research is probabilistic.](https://reader033.fdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022061305/5513eece5503463a298b5efb/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Alien Abductions
• Alternative explanations • Contamination Effect• Sleep paralysis
• NOVA “Kidnapped by UFOs?”
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/aliens/