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Transcript of Ten Tornadoes from Wireless Convergence ————————————— Opportunities for...
Ten Tornadoes from Wireless Convergence
—————————————Opportunities for Australia’s
CIO Internet InnovatorsFour Seasons Hotel, The Rocks, Sydney
February 23, 2004Presented by Alex Lightman
CEO, The University NetworkChairman, Charmed Technology
Conference Chairman, IPv6 Summits in North AmericaFounding Director, The 4G Society
Opening Thought
We need to engineer a global industry consensus on wireless convergence to improve the quantity, quality, variety, simplicity, profitability, and security of customer communication experiences while also improving civilization for all humanity.
Per
cen
tag
e o
f O
wn
ersh
ipP
erce
nta
ge
of
Ow
ner
ship
100100
8080
6060
4040
2020
00
ElectricityElectricity(1873)(1873)
TelephoneTelephone(1876)(1876)
AutomobileAutomobile(1886)(1886)
TelevisionTelevision(1926)(1926)
RadioRadio(1905)(1905)
VCRVCR(1952)(1952)
MicrowaveMicrowave(1953)(1953)
PCPC(1982)(1982)
InternetInternet(1983)(1983)
1001008080606040402020 120120
Years Since IntroductionYears Since Introduction
Telecom IndustryTelecom Industry
main frames
desk top computing
PC-LANPC-WAN
Internet
electronicpublishing and entertainment
Computer IndustryComputer Industry
Media IndustryMedia Industry
The Converged IndustryThe Converged Industry
Wireline
mobility2G/2.5G/EDGE
PSTN
ISDN
PC/Servers
NewTelecomsIndustry
NewTelecomsIndustry
3G/Mobile Internet
Carrier class
MMM
WWW
WAP
NEW
battle ground
Telecom IndustryTelecom Industry
main frames
desk top computing
PC-LANPC-WAN
Internet
electronicpublishing and entertainment
Computer IndustryComputer Industry
Media IndustryMedia Industry
The Integrated IndustryThe Integrated Industry
Wireline
mobility2G/2.5G/EDGE
PSTN
ISDN
PC/Servers
NewTelecomsIndustry
NewTelecomsIndustry
3G/mobile Internet
Carrier class
MMM
WWW
WAP
NEXT
battle ground
Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics
White Goods IndustryWhite Goods Industry
Car - Airline IndustryCar - Airline Industry
3G/mobile Internet
Revised Technology Adoption Life Cycle
2.5 %Innovators
13.5%Early
adopters
34%Early
majority
34%Late
majority
16%Laggards
New Service Revenue from Tornadoes
Standard Best-effort IP ServicesStandard Best-effort IP Services
Operational SavingsOperational Savings
Available New ServiceRevenue
Available New ServiceRevenue
Standard Best-effort IP ServicesStandard Best-effort IP Services
Operational SavingsOperational Savings
Available New ServiceRevenue
Available New ServiceRevenue
Old/Existing ServicesOld/Existing Services
Operational SavingsOperational Savings
Future Service RevenueFuture Service Revenue
TimeNow
20 Wireless Apps from 20 Countries
1. South Africa: SMS for every bank or credit transaction; dropped credit card fraud over 30%.
2. Finland: Just in time dentist (SMS goes out when someone cancels to people who are in the area and want discount)
3. Hong Kong: Horse breeding/racing, a la Tamagotchi egg, game w/ real world counterpart.
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries4. New Zealand: points awarded for
watching television (TV 2, SMS)
5. Korea: Waiting tones (heard by caller to your telephone)
6. Austria: 3 Visuell, bundling of SMS, MMS, and video w/o voice for hearing impaired.
7. Philippines: Transfer minutes from one customer to another.
8. United States: Automated calling from politicians for donations (45+ states)
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries9. Japan: Access traffic web cams and
average speeds for various drive routes.
10. Estonia: pay for parking via mobile (already over 1/3rd of all paid parking).
11. Australia: Mobile check in@Virgin Blue
12. England: Shazam music identifying service
13. Scotland: Find the pub showing your team’s game on big screen
20 Wireless Applications in 20 Countries
14. Belgium: SMS to TV shows (global)
15. Denmark: Withdraw cash from ATM via mobile at Spar Bank.
16. Canada: UPS will track package and send SMS updates on delivery.
17. Netherlands: MMS to postcard, via the post office (about $3 Australian)
18. Iceland: Pay for Wi-Fi w/ mobile.
19. Croatia: medical alerts via SMS
20. China: Imaginary girlfriend/boyfriend; gets angry if you don’t give flowers!
Ten Tornadoes
1. IPv6 (Internet Protocol version 6)
2. IEEE 802.11x (Wi-Fi)
3. RFID (Radio Frequency IDentification)
4. VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol)
5. HD over IP (High Definition over IP)
6. AR (Augmented Reality)
7. Sensornets
8. Home Networking
9. Wearable computing
10. 4G
IEEE 802.11b, 802.11a, 802.11g
First true wireless broadband (11 Mbits/sec gives effective rate of 2 Mb/sec for b, in ISM unlicensed band around 2.4 GHz). 802.11a is 54 MB/sec gives 12-15 Mb/sec., but 5.7 MHz is not ISM in every country, so 802.11g gives rate of a. in the b. spectrum). 802.11e for QoS, 802.11i for security, 802.11f for IAPP. Internet Access Point Protocol. MAC extensions early 2003, implementations by mid 2003.
Conservative at 100 Billion/Year?
10 TU
1 TU
100 BU
10 BU
1 BU
100 MU
10 MU
Metcalfe’s Law: The value of a network increases
exponentially with the number of nodes on the network
1/Computer
1/ConsumerAppliance
1/Object
Cell Phones Wi-Fi Bluetooth/ZigBee
RFID
1/Human
Potential
CurrentPenetration
Gilder / Forbes Telecosm Conference 2003Source: Deloitte & Touche, ..
IPv6 features
3.4*1038 unique addresses availableStateless autoconfigurationSecurity: authentication and
encryptionMobility management
Prediction: New world record for growth for IPv6 2004-2009
Multiple ways to grow million-fold in 5 years!* From 500 nodes to 500 million.
* From one consumer application (Microsoft’s http://www.threedegrees.com) to one million.
* Million-fold increase in packets.
* Million-fold increase in percentage of Internet traffic vs. IPv4. (From 0.000001% today!)
Powers of IPv6 Power of Numbering Power of Sequencing Power of Ranking Power of Naming Power of Leading Power of Granularity Power of Bounding Power of Finer Address (from “c/o General Delivery to street to
5 digit zip to 9 digit zip to 128 digit zip) Power of Slapping on Labels and Instructions Power of Containerized Cargo Power of Tight Targeting Power of Better Modeling and Simulation
DoD IPv6 TransitionConcept
Test & Analysis
Initialization
CoreImplementation
Coexistence
IPv6 Native
Acquire IPv6Address Space
TransitionStrategy
FY03-04
FY05-06
~ FY07-9& Beyond
AddressingPlan
IAAssessment
DNSMod
EstablishDNSRoot
NetworkEarly Adopters
EvaluateTransitionMechanism
DoDCosting
COTS v6Network SW
Dual StackEnd-To-End
ApplicationDual Stack
Capable
DoDSoftware
Implementation
IPv6Protocol Suite
Completion
IPv6FunctionalMatching
DoD IPv6Policy
FY04-05
FY06-07
Req’tsEngineering
ApplicationConversionGuidelines
Pilot CoreNetworks
Dual Stack
IA/Firewall
Capabilities
Switch/RouterASIC
Functionality
NetworkManagement
Tool Int.
Pil
ots
Pil
ots
Pil
ots
BeginWeaning
IPv4
Core NetworkIPv4
Tunneling
EdgeNetworks
IPv6 Native
CoreNetworks
IPv6 Native
Full IPv6Integration A
ll
At a first level:
Need to define next level of details and integrate in IA needs, low bandwidth environment, QOS, mobility, convergence …..
We Are On The Verge of A Commercial Explosion
Personal computer
Internet
Telecommunications 4G
Access to any data
Ubiquitous
Portable processing power
Intuitive, augmented reality interfaces
Context / location aware
Simplifying and enriching people’s lives
Personal electronics
Service economy
Defining 4GDefining 4G
4G networks are networks that provide ubiquitous broadband, peer-to-peer wireless access to the Internet via IPv6.
4G services are multi-rate, informational and multimedia wireless services that provide end-user terminals/sensors with access to any other authenticated peer-to-peer node on the planetary grid.
4G radios are transceivers that provide data transmission at either 10-100 Mbps/user short-range (100 meters) transmission or >1 Mbps long-range (1-10 Km) transmission.
Many 4G basestations and end-user terminals/devices will have the added feature being programmable radios through the use of wideband (400 MHZ – 6 GHZ) software defined radios.
The Planetary Grid
Source: Larry Smarr, UCSD
4GSociety.org
IPv6 (128-bit address space vs. today’s 32-bit address space) P2P, trillions of addresses, stateless autoconfiguration,
sensors, Jumbograms, mandatory IPSec Short-Range Low-Power, Broadband Wireless Technologies
UWB, CDMA, Dynamic Chaos, W-LAN 802.11a,g,b Medium-Range, Medium-Power Nomadic/Full Mobility
Broadband Wireless Technologies OFDM, I-Burst [Arraycomm], OFDM+CDMA [FLARION]
Smart Antennas and spatial processing Base-stations, end user computer terminals, handsets
Software Defined Radios [chips, boards, subsystems] Amateur radio, police/public radio, military, mobile
communications Very Low Power, High-Performance CPU embedded
processors Basis of software defined radios and intelligent sensors
Wearable computer peripherals Software remembrance agents, head-up displays, various
input devices, wearable computer clothing
The 4G Technology MenuThe 4G Technology Menu
Microsoft’s advanced R & D discoveryDan Rosen, former Dir of Adv R &
D for Microsoft: “The most valuable thing we’ve learned is that in the future everything that costs over $25 except food will be connected to the Internet.”
4G is about the convergence of everything, not just of wireless, and therefore a grand consensus of ALL industries must be sought.
MultiSphere Level ConceptMultiSphere Level ConceptSystems beyond 3G will cover different communication relationsSystems beyond 3G will cover different communication relations
Source: IST WSI Project
The PANThe PAN The Immediate The Immediate EnvironmentEnvironment
Instant PartnersInstant Partners
Radio AccessesRadio Accesses CyberWorldCyberWorld: : InterconnectivityInterconnectivity
TodaySingle-service networks
GS
MG
SM
Rad
io/T
VR
adio
/TV
Fix
ed T
elep
ho
ny
Fix
ed T
elep
ho
ny
LA
N (
Dat
a)L
AN
(D
ata)
Services
Transport, Switching & Access Networks
Servers
IP Backbone Network
AccessAccess
FutureMulti-service networks
Communcation Control
Content Content
Access
Multiservice Overlay Networks
What is a SensorNet? Sensors
Physical, Chemical, Biological, Imaging,… Sensor Platform
Computing, Power, Storage, Radios, … Telecommunications Infrastructure
Wired, Wireless, Internet, … Sensor Arrays
Homogeneous, Inhomogeneous, Ad Hoc, … Layered Software Backend Data Systems
New network operations systems must be designed for adaptability and change (new equipment, multiple vendors, new service offerings/ provisioning).
1970-19901970-1990 Minicomputer/Minicomputer/DEC eraDEC era
1:1 people/machine ratio1:1 people/machine ratio
1980-1980- Workstation/Workstation/PC eraPC era
1:10 people/machine ratio1:10 people/machine ratio
1990-1990- Enterprise networks/Enterprise networks/Cisco eraCisco era
1:100? people/machine ratio1:100? people/machine ratio
2000-2000- Broadband packet Broadband packet networks ?networks ?
1:1000? people/machine ratio1:1000? people/machine ratio
1960-19801960-1980
TimeTime
Mainframe/Mainframe/IBM eraIBM era
Platform(s)Platform(s)
10:1 people/machine ratio10:1 people/machine ratio
Network Operations ModelNetwork Operations Model
Source: Paul JohnsonSource: Paul Johnson
Old network management systems were single vendor solutions optimized for cost in rigid five-year preplanned networks.
The New Powers of Ten
1000’s of subscriptions/person Given Imaging’s camera/sensor pill that you
swallow, w/ data recorded onto a hiptop Personal Black Box.
Medical Microelectronic Machines (later nanodocs) tied to NIH databases doing real-time assessment against millions of high resolution medical records, each with IP address.
Localizers as described in Vernor Vinge’s A Deepness in the Sky will link in and out of body.
The value of curing cancer, heart disease approx. $50 trillion each. Milken Institute.
4G(2004 –2010)
Low
Mob
ilit
y
Hig
h-M
obil
ity
0.01 0.1 1.0 10 100
Vehicular
Pedestrian
Portable
Fixed
56K Modems xDSL/CableE1/T1 Lines
T3 Lines
DECT/CordlessPhones
Bluetooth
GSM, cdmaOne
PDC
GPRS,EDGE,CDMA2000 1X 144 kbps
802.11b802.11a
Broadband Fixed Wireless Access
802.16a FBWA)
Software Defined Radio Opportunity2G 2.5G 3G
$0.01-$0.07/Mbytes$0.30 - $20/Mbytes
Multimedia Data, Location Services,Augmented Reality, Music/Video,Voice over IP, Remote Control
Smart Antennas
802.11g
Source: Alex Lightman & William Rojas Brave New Unwired World, John Wiley & Sons: 2002
4G Wireless: >4G Wireless: >40-150 Mbps Transmitters40-150 Mbps Transmitters
802.11b 2-11 Mbps
760 Kbps
54 Mbps
Early 4G Systems
1.5 – 20 Mbps
W-CDMA R4 (2.3 Mbps), R5 (14.4 Mbps)
CDMA2000 1x EV-DO (2.4 Mbps), EV-DV(3 Mbps) HPSDA
802.16e Mobility
802.15a UWB PAN
3G RAN3G RAN
3G RAN3G RAN
CableCable
3G RAN3G RAN
DSLDSL
WLANWLAN
RASRAS
RASRAS
RASRAS
IPv6IPv6all-IPall-IP
Packet CorePacket Core
GWGW PSTNPSTN
ER/FWER/FW
IPv4IPv4(public or private)(public or private)
IPv6IPv6(public or private)(public or private)
3G-3G-SGSNSGSN
3G-3G-SGSNSGSN 3G-3G-
SGSNSGSN
3G-3G-GGSNGGSN
Source: Nokia, Native Inc., Juniper Networks
Note: NTT, IIJ, & Singtel have already converted their IP switching fabric to IPv6
IP organizations:www.ipv6forum.net, www.usipv6.com, www.v6pc.jp, www.ipv6.org
Equipment:
Cisco, IBM, Nortel,Juniper, Fluke, Lucent, NEC, Fujitsu, Hitachi, Nintendo, Telia,Compaq, Sega, 3Com ATM/FR
SDH/DWDM
IP over ATM IP over DWDMNetwork Connection
RAS
ISP ERER
IPv6IPv6betweenbetween
access systemsaccess systems
Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migrate to IPv6Potential of 4G begins to be realized as access networks migrate to IPv6
4G Personal Communicator
1 to 40 Mbps Radio Link
Voice, fax, dataMP3 PlayerPDAStorageVoice RecorderLanguage TranslatorVideo CameraHealth MonitorAugmented Reality(AR)AR Game Player
InfoSensors
User 1
7. Wireless Broadcast Layer
6. Cellular Layer
5. BFWA,W-LAN, MBWA
4. Wireless Gateway Layer
3. Wireless Personal Pico-Net Layer
2. Wireless/Wireline InfoSensor (Localizers) Layer
1. Wireline Transport Layer (Optical Fiber, DWDM, Ethernet – Fiber Hybrid Coaxial)
Home or OfficeHome or Office
Telecom/Internet Service ProvidersCellular OperatorsAd-Hoc Campus/Wireless LAN Providers
Seven Layers of 4G
Hitachi RFID 2.4 GHZ Chip 0.30 mm2 Source: IBM Research
4G as a Seven Layer Integrator4G as a Seven Layer Integrator
Fixed Wireless Access
Wireless Local Loop
Satellite
High Altitude Platform
Broadcasting
S-UMTS
SatelliteBroadband
DVB-S
DVB-T
DAB
GSM
GPRS
Cellular
MBS 40
MBS 60
Quasi-Cellular
UMTS
EDGE
UMTS ++
xMDS
Broadband FWA
Body-LANPersonal
Area Networks
MWSIR
BroadbandW-LAN
Bluetooth
W-LAN Local Area Networks
FourthGeneration
IPv6IPv6
The European Commission on 4G
©JPER
ATLICATIONS the size of WWW
Atlas application, supports the worldVoice ($500 billion annually)Radio (add personalization, location)Television (Every show ever made)Medical MonitoringSimulations High resolution Location Based
Services, including security
DeploymentRate
Slow but Steady
IPv4 Internet IPv6 Internet
P2PAd HocVoIP
GRID
HN3G
ITS WEB/Email
10 Killer Apps bigger than the Web!!!
Closing Thought
The future is here.
It’s just not evenly distributed. William Gibson.
Alex [email protected]
Closing Thought
[email protected] Tel. 310 717 7745.
You are invited to attend the next IPv6 Summit, June 14-18, 2004, Santa Monica, CA
www.usipv6.com
Thank you! Please stay in
touch.
Alex Lightman