Ten predictions for IT outsourcing in 2016
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Transcript of Ten predictions for IT outsourcing in 2016
Drive Your Business
Ten Predictionsfor IT Outsourcing in 2016
2 ©2015 WGroup. ThinkWGroup.com
IntroductionThe IT outsourcing industry experienced several technical developments during 2015, including
greater integration of in-house services, more hybrid off-shoring, and lower cost models for
consultants. Several technologies related
to outsourcing will continue to converge in
2016, including cloud computing, virtualization
applications, and utilities. Cloud platforms
will begin to look the same as this industry
matures, providing the advantages that typically
accompany standardization, including greater
efficiency and reduction in support costs.
Even customers with existing outsourcing
arrangements will benefit from this trend,
especially those with complex IT environments.
Platform standardization will therefore result
in a new operating model for IT outsourcing.
Additional changes will include greater governance regulation and smaller contracts. These
changes will drive IT outsourcing into next year, resulting in these 10 predictions for 2016:
• Increased digitization
• Higher priority on outcomes
• Greater use of multiple
vendors
• Cloud platforms evolve
• Outsourcing shifts from IT to
business
• More cloud workers
• More contract negotiations
• RFP declines
• Greater awareness of supplier
risk
• More data-driven sourcing
decisions
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1. Increased digitizationThe development of digital business, commonly known as the Internet of things, is
causing many markets to change rapidly, including IT outsourcing. This market is highly
dependent upon capitalizing on the new opportunities that result from increasingly
blurred lines between digital and physical “things,” including organizations, people, and
devices. Industry analysts estimate that 20 to 30 billion entities will be connected to the
Internet by 2020. All of these entities will be communicating with each other in multiple
ways, including transactions and associations. The flow of information will continue
to increase as this number grows, providing new ways of conducting business.
Traditional leaders in IT outsourcing will start to lose their
market advantage to smaller competitors that may have
been virtually unknown a few years ago. This trend will
require market leaders to use their brand-name recognition
to develop other revenue streams that may not be directly
related to their core business. For example, a company
most known for its Internet search engine is currently
developing a driverless car. A leading eyeglass manufacturer
is beginning to mass-produce E glasses, and a shoe
manufacturer is selling personal electronic devices.
The process of global digitalization is just beginning, but it will accelerate as products
and services change in response. Digital businesses must therefore remain agile and
respond quickly to changes in market demand and circumstances to take full advantage
of digitalization. The analog world will remain instrumental for providing data that
developers can analyze when creating digital products and services. The IT department
in these digital businesses will play a key role in introducing these new products and
services in addition to retaining its traditional support role in the back office. They will
also need to deeply engage with customers to remain agile and innovative.
A pace-layered approach to IT outsourcing will become the recommended strategy
for addressing the challenges of digital businesses. This model views IT functions
as running at different speeds, such that an organization treats each function in a
sourcing strategy according to its operating speed. The implementation of a pace-
layered approach typically involves creating an IT department with two modes.
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The first mode focuses on the traditional aspects of IT that maintain the
organization’s infrastructure, including data centers, enterprise resource
planning (ERP) systems, and telecommunication networks. The other IT mode
in a pace-layered approach pursues business initiatives, such as marketing and
product development, at the rapid pace that digital technology allows.
The use of collaboration tools also will increase in 2016 as businesses become more globalized.
The transition of work environments from the traditional office setting to one that allows more
collaboration will require employees to work from a greater number
of locations. For example, video conferencing is a highly
effective method of reducing the significance of physical
distance without compromising the experience of a face-
to-face meeting. Visual communications will therefore
become one of the most important aspects of team collaboration.
Globalization also requires an organization to function across multiple political borders, cultures,
and time zones. This aspect of globalization means that organizations must accommodate
individual preferences for collaborative efforts to succeed, requiring the use of digital
technology to share e-mail, social media, telephone, and video content. The use of these
tools to break down communication barriers in business will continue to increase in 2016.
Collaborative technology must truly integrate different organizations, rather than merely allowing
some degree of interoperability. Video conferencing will alter business models and become
the preferred method of communication, instead of e-mail, for many organizations in 2016.
The integration of collaborative technology in business applications, communication systems
and workflows will drive the adoption of video conferencing. Space-specific technologies,
including improved SDKs, standards-based videos, and WebRTC, will facilitate the increased
use of video conferencing. Solution-specific to a particular industry will increase the value
of real conferencing, especially in financial services, government, healthcare, and retail.
More companies will shift their work environment from a traditional row of cubicles to a
more open workspace and allow employees a more flexible work schedule. This will result
in the use of digital white-boarding, lighting adjustments, and noise cancellation that will
improve productivity in this new work environment. The combination of these innovations
and a greater need for collaboration will render traditional workspace obsolete.
As businesses become more globalized, the use of collboration tools will increase accordingly.
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These changes will require workers to
connect to the Internet at any time and from
any location. The trend toward extreme
mobility will result in the number of smart
phones greatly exceeding those of PCs.
Some estimates place the number of
smart phones in use by 2018 at 2.4 billion,
with a ratio of six smart phones
for every PC. The use of
contextual collaboration
will increase in 2016
due to improvements
in communication
between mobile
devices.
This period of
“super mobility” will be
characterized by mobile
devices that provide the tools
employees need to be productive
when they’re not in a physical office, including
voice communication, video conferencing and
content collaboration. These requirements
will result in mobile devices with near field
communications (NFC), Wi-Di, Ultrasonic
and other new wireless technologies.
The small and medium-sized businesses
(SMB) market will adopt collaborative
solutions most quickly due to their particular
need for mobility. SMBs are rapidly migrating
to cloud-based services that provide
content sharing, video conferencing, and
VoIP. A regulatory mandate requires voice
services to be removed from the public
switched telephone network (PSTN) in the
United States within the next five years.
Once this occurs, the need for cloud-based
services will increase dramatically.
Organizations will make greater use of
browser-based collaboration solutions
for simple communication
in 2016. Technologies
like WebRTC will
allow users to
communicate
within their
standard
workflow, thus
simplifying the
collaborative
process. These
technologies
will see greater use
among SMBs, although video
conferencing with advanced functionality
will still require an enterprise solution.
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IT outsourcing customers will continue to place higher priority on solutions that align compensation
with their desired outcome. These solutions should make greater use of cloud-based technologies
that allow outsourcing providers to differentiate themselves from their competition. The trend
toward outcome-based pricing will change the way in which providers engage their customers.
IT sourcing will increase in 2016 due to IT’s assumption
of a greater role in an organization’s core business. The
fastest growth will be in smaller IT providers that can
respond quickly to clients with specialized requirements or
clients with requirements that change frequently. Providers
that can exploit the expansion of cloud computing and
mobile devices to scale solutions quickly will have an
advantage in the next year. By comparison, the value
of very large vendors will increase slowly if at all.
The executives who operate modern businesses
are becoming increasingly aware of technology,
which places greater demands on CIOs. This trend
will require CIOs to become more innovative in
integrating cloud-based technologies with existing
systems. They will act almost like technology brokers by advising the organization’s
business units on ways to integrate new technologies. The members of these units will
tend to source technology themselves if their CIO is unable to meet their needs. This
strategy is becoming a faster solution than waiting for IT requests to be fulfilled internally,
due to the growing availability of mobile devices and cloud-computing platforms.
Digitalization is providing CIOs and other sourcing leaders with an opportunity to
drive growth, although it also poses challenges. It allows non-technical personnel
to source technical solutions without formal control by the organization’s IT
department, a phenomenon commonly known as a shadow IT. However, this trend
often results in a loss of organization and integration of IT resources.
2. Higher priority on outcomes
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For example, if a CEO fails to adequately implement cloud storage that would allow employees to
access data from mobile devices, the employees will probably subscribe to a third-party service,
such as Google Drive or Dropbox. This results in the storage of proprietary information in a domain
that the business doesn’t control, which could harm the business if that information is disclosed.
IT outsourcing is in the process of transitioning to an adaptive model, meaning that its capabilities
must respond quickly to changes in client requirements. This trend requires client organizations
to group their needed resources into distinct layers according to their expected business
outcomes. This strategy needs to be highly flexible, since internal
systems must be highly integrated with third-party applications. It also
requires greater collaboration with the outsourcing stakeholders.
The current transformation of the IT landscape will require many
changes from vendors over the next five years, especially market
leaders that wish to remain competitive. However, most vendors
don’t yet understand the speed of this transition. Industry analysts
are generally in close agreement that these changes will be highly
disadvantageous for outsourcing vendors that fail to implement an
outcome-based pricing model. The strength of these opinions is
particularly significant given that these analysts receive much of their business from vendors
seeking advice on market opportunities, technological trends, and user requirements in the
outsourcing industry. These unusually blunt assessments are a strong indication that the
changes in outsourcing are so profound that vendors can no longer safely ignore them.
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Multi-sourcing will continue to dominate the outsourcing market in 2016.
The trend in IT outsourcing toward smaller contracts and multiple vendors is well underway.
The number of outsourcers per customer will continue to increase dramatically in 2016 due
to the growing popularity of cloud services, especially software as a service (SaaS). This will
result in a corresponding increase in governance requirements, due to the commoditization of
IT infrastructure and increasing focus on applications. The management of service providers
will begin to resemble the current management of software, including the elimination of
unused and duplicate services. Integration between clients and vendors will be critical in this
outsourcing model and often will be the deciding factor in an organization’s choice of vendors.
Multi-sourcing will continue to dominate the outsourcing market in 2016 and the market will be
increasingly competitive, especially for government vendors. Government spending on outsourcing
is greater than that in the private sector, and that disparity should increase further. The number
of outsourcing contracts in the United States is at an all-time high
and will continue to grow during the next year. The most
mature outsourcing customers are more likely to adopt
a multi-vendor strategy, although less mature customers
also are moving toward a multi-sourcing model.
A number of factors affect multi-sourcing in both global and
domestic markets, including the business pace, culture, and specific sourcing model.
Multinational organizations increasingly use a portfolio approach that combines outsourcers
and consultants with an organization’s own IT resources. The growth in multi-sourcing means
that service integration is becoming an essential requirement for outsourcing customers.
Multi-sourcing is generally increasing on a global scale, although the use of multi-sourcing varies
considerably by individual market. For example, both the total contract value of IT outsourcing and
the value of business process outsourcing (BPO) steadily increased in the United States during
2015. However, global outsourcing markets also have recently experienced significant decreases
in the numbers of contracts and their total values. The global market increased significantly in the
first half of 2014, which was followed by an equally dramatic decline in the third quarter of that year.
3. Greater use of multiple vendors
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Organizations that had signed multibillion-dollar deals in consecutive quarters were unable
to sustain this period of growth, resulting in a pause in the market. Nevertheless, industry
experts expect double digit growth in outsourcing for the entire year of 2015, which is
well ahead of the pace set in the previous year. This trend should continue for at least the
first two quarters of 2016, due to a significant accumulation of transaction activity.
Outsourcing in the public sector grew particularly rapidly in 2015. Government IT spending was
generally on par with spending in the private sector just five years ago, but now accounts for almost
2/3 of the total value of all contracts and BPO value. The total value of contracts in the public
sector is around $40 billion, which represents a 15 percent increase from last year. The significant
majority of this activity occurred in North America, primarily due to an increase in Department
of Defense spending. Other agencies that sought to adopt shared services and consolidate
their data centers also accounted for a significant portion of this increase in contract value.
These factors indicate that smaller deals with multiple vendors should continue to dominate IT
outsourcing. Total contracts and BPO values probably won’t increase in the long term, although
competition on price and value should remain fierce. Process enhancements and technological
innovations are likely to reduce the cost of outsourcing services. These technologies and the increasing
automation of labor will create a shift in material cost that providers need to leverage, especially in
mature markets. They can then bring these solutions into newer markets to attract new buyers.
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Cloud platforms will begin to mature in 2016, after the rapid growth of many different technologies.
Enterprise-level organizations will begin taking more pragmatic approach toward maintaining
software solutions and infrastructure in the cloud by developing internal expertise in these issues.
Cloud-based solutions to storage and processing will continue to be the preferred choice within
specific functions, although more general solutions are more likely to use other approaches.
For example, hybrid sourcing is becoming a more common method for providing IT
services. This model combines both insourced and outsourced services as an alternative
to pure outsourcing. Hybrid sourcing is particularly popular with organizations in
the financial and public media sectors. Its primary advantage is its ability to support
growing organizations as their skills in outsourcing governance mature.
Additional changes in cloud computing include optimizing new applications
for a cloud-based infrastructure. Outsourcing strategies for these applications
will progress more quickly since early adopters will have greater influence in
establishing policies that will exempt them from governance processes.
Another option for managing outsourcing solutions is to port
existing applications to a cloud platform. This approach requires
each application to be analyzed and tested individually to
ensure that it can maintain the required service level agreement
(SLA). Individual application testing is necessary to use the
infrastructure efficiently, thus avoiding terrible costs that could
cause the business case for this strategy to fail. Porting existing
applications will be particularly challenging in complex IT
environments with a heterogeneous application portfolio.
Amazon Web Services (AWS) is a good example of a company that can expect to
increase its enterprise layer significantly in 2016. However, these organizations will
need to address their well-founded concerns regarding business continuity and security
when expanding their enterprise layer. Many organizations may abandon the use of the
term “cloud,” considering it to be a marketing term with little technical meaning.
4. Cloud platforms evolve
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ID service providers will also need to specify a particular service model when offering a
particular infrastructure service, such as infrastructure as a service (IaaS), platform as a service
(PaaS), or SaaS. Additional qualifiers will become more necessary when discussing these
services, including dedicated, off-premises, on-premises, shared, private, and public.
The number of general-purpose cloud service providers should decline sharply during 2016. The major
providers – Amazon, Microsoft, and IBM SoftLayer – will gain market share and eliminate the smaller
cloud platforms. Google will start to develop into a major player for enterprise-level outsourcing,
due to its use of state-of-the-art technology that scales services easily. DigitalOcean, Aliyun and
other smaller players are highly innovative, but will still experience difficulty in competing with larger
cloud-service providers. Many other providers will begin terminating their cloud services in 2016.
Cloud-service customers should start selecting
providers that will survive this winnowing process,
now that this market is beginning to mature. Smaller
providers will receive less revenue as users begin
seeking the larger providers, thus causing the
smaller providers to shut down. In turn, this process
will drive more customers to the larger providers.
Many industry experts predict that no more than eight major providers will remain by the end of
2016, along with a few minor players. Cloud service is a capital-intensive business, meaning
that the winners will tend to be those providers with the largest checkbooks. Many of the current
providers will find that their capital is insufficient to remain in the market during 2016.
Cloud-service customers should start selecting providers that will survive the winnowing process taking place, now that the market is beginning to mature.
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The trend toward business as the driving force in outsourcing will cause enterprises to become their own software vendors.
As more manufactured products embed technology, the primary driving of IT outsourcing
will continue to shift from IT leaders to business leaders. Product engineers will begin
treating IT services as a required purchase, so they will assume direct control over those
contracts. This trend will be detrimental for those service providers that don’t understand
the importance of considering infrastructure to be a service rather than a product.
The short-term result will be a shift in power in the outsourcing market to suppliers with
new buyers. The request for proposals (RFPs) and subsequent bidding traditionally
associated with these contracts will no longer be necessary as IT outsourcing transitions
to a service brokerage model. IT departments will be able to assume control over the
services that business units have acquired on their own, thus eliminating shadow IT.
The most compelling cases for this strategy will be those in which the IT department can
demonstrate a cost savings through improved service measurement and integration.
The trend toward business as the driving force in outsourcing will cause enterprises to become
their own software vendors, as opposed to the current approach of using cloud providers and
outside vendors. Enterprises are therefore increasingly likely to use open-source software
solutions. The majority of the largest global organizations should include digital transformation as
a core strategy by the end of 2017. These enterprises will more than double their capability for
software development by 2018 due to their pursuit of digitalization strategies. Furthermore, the
majority of their software developers will focus on digitalization applications during this period.
5. Outsourcing shifts from IT to business
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The role of corporate IT will change more in the near future than it ever has before, which is a
disconcerting prospect for many leaders in this field. IT officers have long wanted a seat at the
corporate table and will have that opportunity to directly influence policy in the next few years.
The transition of IT as the core driver for an organization’s business will set high expectations
for these leaders. CIOs who can rise to this challenge will enjoy
greater success in this new role, while those who can’t
are likely to be discarded for someone who can.
The trend toward digitalization may result in a reduction
in outsourcing for organizations specializing in this
area. For example, a company that has outsourced
its initial development of mobile applications is likely
to determine that it can’t build its digital business to
the enterprise level by relying on external consultants.
This strategy would be prohibitively expensive in the
long run, since outsourcing inevitably results in some
inefficiency due to miscommunications and false starts.
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Cloud services and autonomics will continue to become more highly integrated in
2016, resulting in a greater number of cloud workers or so-called smart robots. These
workers will contribute to the view of labor as a service, as clients and service providers
make greater use of them. Due to their flexibility in meeting client requirements on-
demand, virtual agents and intelligent tools are easy to host on all platforms.
The increased use of cloud workers will generate interest in autonomics in general and its effect on
the momentum toward outsourcing in particular. It’s also part of the overall trend toward outcome-
based pricing in IT outsourcing. Clients will be more likely to have a choice of cloud services,
allowing them to process each workload on the most appropriate platform. This strategy contrasts
with the current practice of using a centralized platform that provides dedicated infrastructure for
all of the client’s needs. The transition toward more specialized platforms will drive the growth
of cloud brokerage software, which streamlines cloud services through the use of analytics.
The increase in cloud workers will provide the cloud-sourcing supply chain with greater
visibility, since more business leaders will be purchasing technology services. They will be
more likely to assume direct control over outsourcing contracts as more consumer products,
appliances, and vehicles contain embedded technology. This trend will result in a greater
number of business leaders who view IT services as a core purchase. However, many
organizations that use shared services will experience challenges in making this transition.
6. More cloud workers
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7. More contract renegotiationOutcome-based pricing is especially favorable for increasing the number of cloud
workers to solve some of the challenges of upfront costs when contracting with
a third party. The contracts that were renegotiated in 2015 were worth over $100
billion, and this figure will increase in 2016. For many customers, the purpose of
these renegotiations is a multi-sourcing cloud-based model for IT outsourcing.
The high demand for software developers is another reason that so many customers
are renegotiating contracts. CIOs need a staff that can implement the software
needed to develop an organization into a digital enterprise. However, the latest
applications use a greater variety of databases, frameworks, languages, and
execution environments than traditional software. Therefore, software development
in the future will require participation by a greater number of developers.
More than half of organizational IT spending will be for third-
party technologies by 2017, including services
and solutions. This figure will exceed 60 percent
by 2020. This trend will blur the line between
vendor technology and enterprise technology,
as both types of organizations implement technology
based on the operation of the respective organizations.
The scarcity of qualified developers will require the leaders of enterprise organizations to
change their mindset dramatically. Managers have traditionally viewed the IT department
as a cost center and primarily focused on controlling the budget, especially with respect to
salaries. Developers have historically been treated as interchangeable commodities, but
managers will now increasingly likely to view developers as critical resources. This trend
will place qualified developers in a stronger position for dictating their own terms.
The mere fact that an organization isn’t physically located in a traditional technology
center like Silicon Valley won’t necessarily protect it from the loss of IT talent in 2016.
The demand for these staff members will remain extremely high, especially among
organizations whose core business is IT. The increasing use of outsourcing will contribute
toward the need for more developers, regardless of geographical location.
By 2020, more than 60% of organizational IT spending will be for third-party technologies.
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8. RFP declinesThe traditional use of RFPs to procure IT resources will decline in 2016. The length of time and
cost of this procurement method will become prohibitive in a highly dynamic business environment
where requirements often change by the time a client receives proposals from service providers.
Enterprise marketplaces and other new purchase methods will replace RFPs in the near
future, especially for IT outsourcing. The RFP model is a particularly poor fit for an industry
that deals with emerging technologies, which enterprises may be slow to adopt. The use of
products such as wearables and Google Glass requires a purchase strategy that permits a close
collaboration between clients and service providers.
The vendors of legacy IT services face poor
prospects in the near future. One industry expert
estimates that about one-third of today’s IT vendors
will not exist in their present form by 2020. They will
either be out of business completely, acquired by
other corporations, or greatly reduced in size.
This process is well under way and will continue in 2016. For example, Dell recently
announced its intention to acquire EMC, which promises to be the largest high-tech
acquisition in history. Citrix plans to sell its GotoMeeting unit, resulting in a 10 percent
reduction in its workforce. Hewlett-Packard split itself into two independent businesses.
These examples are just indications of the upheaval that awaits legacy vendors, especially
the largest ones. In addition to the decline in RFPs, additional problems affecting legacy
IT giants include poor growth, lack of earnings, and unfavorable exchange rates. The
growth history of these vendors is a particularly strong sign of their bleak future.
These difficulties don’t represent a problem that might be solved with layoffs or replacing
the CEO. Instead, they’re a sign that the IT industry is changing, and legacy vendors
aren’t delivering the necessary solutions. This industry is undergoing a restructuring
that will be accelerated by private equity, which is a new method of obtaining financial
backing in the tech world. While high-tech businesses are accustomed to rapid
change, this inevitable restructuring will be particularly painful and prolonged.
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9. Greater awareness of supplier riskOrganizations are likely to devote more effort toward managing IT supplier risk in 2016.
The risk of a supplier failure is increasing dramatically as customers become more
informed about a business’s supply chain. Many organizations began to integrate the
monitoring of supplier risk into daily operations during 2015. Discussions on supplier
risk have previously been restricted to quarterly meetings, but they will now affect key
business decisions in real time. Economic and political turmoil in Russia, Ukraine, and
elsewhere will become critical considerations in a global IT outsourcing environment.
Client organizations have traditionally monitored locations that could be geopolitical risks in IT
outsourcing. However, responsibility for this function is shifting to shared services and sourcing
teams, since they primarily affect service providers. This approach will be more common as
service disruptions increase due to shrinking labor pools, legal changes, and a generally poor
economy in areas that have historically provided the talent for IT outsourcing.
The fixed-fee contract is the traditional pricing model for application
development and maintenance (ADM) outsourcing. This model
generally requires clients to pay a specific amount of money
to obtain a specific amount of work. Clients prefer the fixed-
fee model since they are more likely to receive the services
they paid for, while providers appreciated this model’s ability
to indicate the appropriate staffing required for each deal.
However, the managed-service model is gaining popularity
for IT outsourcing. This model focuses on meeting the client’s
requirements, regardless of the staffing and servicing methods that the provider uses.
Managed services benefit the clients because they typically cost significantly less than
fixed pricing in the long term. Clients often report that they are able to cut IT outsourcing
costs in half over the course of five years by switching to managed services. Suppliers
benefit from managed services by obtaining increased flexibility and the opportunity
to increase profit margins in exchange for the greater risk of this pricing model.
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10. More data-driven sourcing decisionsData analysis will play a larger role in making outsourcing decisions. The process of
identifying opportunities for maximizing the return on investment (ROI) in outsourcing
has become more challenging as sourcing has become more complex. This trend has
resulted in a greater need to rely on analytics rather than expert advice. The use of
analytics will need more accurate data and greater cost transparency to realize its full
benefits. It also will require clients to use a greater number of service providers.
Outsourcing decisions are more likely to be based on big data in
2016. It’s important to understand that big data does
not refer to a data set of a particular size. Instead,
it refers to a data set that’s large enough to prevent
traditional techniques, such as a relational database,
from adequately storing, retrieving, and manipulating the data set.
The intense interest in big data is due to the growing realization that analyzing a large amount of
data can provide new insights or insights that would otherwise be ignored in favor of intuition.
Major cloud providers are actively engaged in meeting the challenges of analyzing big
data. IBM’s Watson is one of the most well-known machine-learning services used for
this purpose, although AWS, Google, and Microsoft have rolled out similar offerings.
The most obvious result of this trend will be to increase the value of large providers that
can afford to host machine-learning services. Big data will therefore continue to remain
an important factor in enterprise-level IT outsourcing for the foreseeable future.
In 2016, outsourcing decisions are more likely to be based on big data.
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