TEMPUS/Erasmus -Mundus: EU-COMET 2

Management of Risks Related to Long Waves Impact and Oil Spills

European Joint Master in Water and Coastal Management

EU-COMET2Nikolay Plink

ICM Department

Russian State Hydrometeorological University

St. Petersburg

plink@rshu.ru

Objectives

Introduction into methodology of risk management;

Using of theory of risk management for mitigation of impact due to marine natural disaster related with extreme sea level oscillations such as storm surge and tsunami;

Strategy of risk management related with possibility of oil spills.

Requirements

Not special requirements are need except some background and knowledge of methodology of Integrated Coastal management,

Recommendable to have some experience dealing with ocean (coastal) physical oceanography (Long wave Theory).

Programme

Exsample “The Sumatra tsunami, 2004” ; Introduction into general theory of risk

management -Methodology of risk management;

Coastal risk management, related to extremal sea level oscillations;

Stretegy of risk management related with possibility of oil spills (with reference to the Baltic Sea).

Bibliography

Plink N.L., Gogoberidze G.G. “Coastal Policy” – SPb.: RSHU, 2003.- 171- 187pp (in Russian)

HELCOM Third Periodic Assessment of the State of Marina Environment of the Baltic Sea, 1989 -1993. Executive Summary Balt. Sea Environ. – Proc. No 64 A,B,1996

Tuovinen P., Kostilainen V., Hamamainen F., Study on Ship Casualties in the Baltic Sea 1979-1981 Baltic Sea Environment Proceeding. –No 11, 1984.

“Study of the risk for accidents and the related environmental hazard from the transportation of chemicals by tankers in the Baltic Sea” – Baltic Sea Environment Proceeding No 34, 1990

Robert Kay, Jackie Alder Coastal Planning and Management – E&FN Spon, Routledge, London, 1999.-371 pp.

Methodological Guide To Integrated Coastal Zone Management – Manuals and Guides No 36, UNESCO, 1997 – 47 p.

Methodology Guide “Steps and Tools Towards Integrated Coastal Area Management - Manuals and Guides No 42, UNESCO, 2001 – 64 pp.

Impact of sea Level Rise on Cities and regions –Proceeding of the First International meeting “Cities on the Water”, Venice, December 11-13 1989 – Venice 1991 ISBN 86-317-5449-1

Defant A. “Physical Oceanography” vol. 1,2 Pergamon, Oxford, (1961); Waves, Tides and Shallow-Water processes, 1994. The Open University. Case Study “Long wave theory”

TEMPUS/Erasmus -Mundus: EU-COMET 2

Indian Ocean Tsunami 2004

Inevitable natural cataclysm or poor risk management?

The Indian Ocean Tsunami, December, 2004

The Indian ocean earthquake disaster has claimed more then 140,000 lives,

More that 1,8 million need food aid and about 5 million are homeless as a result of the undersea earthquake off Sumatra and the tsunami it triggered.

In 2005 it was registered 360 natural disasters that impact on 150 millions individuals, including earthquake in the Pakistan (75000 of victims), several hurricanes in USA (“Katrina” –more that 1200 victims) etc.

Tsunami in the WorldSource of data: National Geophysical Data Centre, NOAA

http://staff.aist.go.jp/kenji.satake/animation.gif

Prelude to the catastrophe :

Lack of attention to the tsunami problem in the Indian ocean coastal States,

A proposal about creation of the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System have been turned out in 2002,

Absence of communicative programmes on education and public awareness on rules of safety related with tsunami,

Absence of special training of coastal hotel managers and as result their helplessness for tourists community in critical situation,

Low level of scientific background of tsunami problem, Absence of clear strategy of risk management.

Was tsunami in the Indian ocean novelty? - No, it wasn’t

Traditional knowledge about tsunami could save life of many people

It is know that in many cases tsunami begins with a fall of the water level. The big wave comes later. In December, 2004 tsunami reach the Northern coast of Sumatra Island in 15 minutes after earthquake. It is difficult to expect that tsunami warning system (even if it existed) was effective due to very short time for decision making. But the nature itself has given a sign -the ocean step back from the beach. A lot of people had lost their own chance due to low level of public awareness.

Tsunami, 2004 had reached coasts of the India and Sri-Lanka in more that one hour’s time. It is more than enough time to give notice of tsunami. Due to the absence of appropriate system nobody did that. The water was swelling and kept coming in the beach. People was looking with interesting on the wave. They didn’t worry, but already they never will be happy!

Introduction into general theory of risk management

Methodology of risk management

General approaches to risk management Main definitions Risk is defined by probability that some event, which can take place, will have real or

potential negative consequences that can be expressed as damage. EVENT measure of risk RISK = DAMAGE level of risk

Risk of event is defined by measure of risk. Risk of damage is defined by extent or level of risk. Events which can give rise to fatal consequences can have different origin : Natural - storm surges, typhoons, tsunamis and other natural disasters Anthropogenic - different accidents at the sea or ground accidents (oil spills, destruction

of buildings etc.) Economical - negative change at the market (sudden fluctuations of rate of exchange,

instability of prices etc) Political – adoption of unfavorable laws, political instability Damage can be related with negative impact (from the event) on environment,

economical or social losses, complete or partial loss of health etc. Damage can be expressed in financial terms.

Methodology of risk assessment

Risk assessment in general will be determined as following:

P = f (Pa, H, PH, K, B),

Where P – is the risk assessment (a probability of some event will take place and it will have some negative impact on the population, environment, building characteristics, industrial buildings etc);

Pa – a probability of negative event disaster, counted according to the number of previous events;

H- quantitative characteristic of a disaster existence which lead to qualitative destructive processes;

PH – a probability of appearance of qualitative destructive processes (probability of event when disaster impact will be more than H);

K – coefficient describing probability of inauspicious (negative) coinciding of several natural phenomena (for example, tsunami and tide high water);

B – parameter, characterizing state of the coastal zone (density of population, type of an enterprise, type of building, the development level, condition of industrials activity etc.)

The main goal of ICM is both the risk assessment and risk management, directed to the less quantity damage by taking decisions and working out measures to mitigate negative consequences.

ICM methodology and risk management

Coastal zone is considered as integrated natural and socio –economical system. Any event with negative impact on the coastal zone will influence on all aspects of coastal zone function. Risk management could be defined as risk assessment and following management actions oriented to reduction of probability of damage. To assess risk, an important factor is not only a possibility of negative event, but also its conditions, its geographical situation, an economic development of the coastal zone, density of population and other factors. That’s why the main factors of risk assessment are the measure and extend (level) of risk, describing by means of quantitative characteristics both the probability of negative event appearance and the unfavorable level of the following alternatives.

ICM methodology and risk management

Risk management, as a part of the ICM system, must bedirected to:

Zoning of coastal zone in accordance with results of risk assessment;

Working out of special legal regulation for developing planning;

Elaboration of plans of disaster consequences liquidation;

Making warning systems; Special education of coastal habitants, related with study

of special rules of behavior during and after different disasters.

Algorithm of risk management (Identification, assessment, decision, evaluation)

Step Task Actions

1 Identification of risks

Study of previous history (what kind of natural disaster, where, when ),Identification of factors determining the risk (flood, wind, pollution….), Analysis of main factors that could have an influence on impact (factors of wave transformation, resonance….), Identification of risk priorities (presence of dangerous manufactures, density of population, level of urbanization ….)

2 Assessment of risks

Quantitative assessment of risk limits, i.e. parameters when impact will lead to damage,Assessment of probability of overdrawing (exceeding) of risk limits ,Study of measure for mitigation of impact

3 Decision making and risk management

Application of measure for mitigation of damage,Development of strategy for risk weakening,Development plans for liquidation of impact after-effects.

4 Evaluation and improvement of risk management system

Evaluation of effectiveness of decision making process,Development of measures for improvement of risk management system

Example of sea level risk management

Sea level oscillations related with long waves appear because of different marine processes such as tides, tsunami, storm surges. Impact of disasters is leading to the loss of sustainability. It is necessary to develop some special measures, directed to mitigation of negative influence from possible impacts. From the point of methodology of integrated coastal zone management, it means the necessity of development of special measures directed to mitigate negative consequences from disasters.

Main tasks of sea level risk management Sea level risk management must be directed to:

Assessment of risk related to extreme sea level oscillations, Flood zoning of coastal zone with using data observed and

modeling (hydraulic and numerical) , Adoption of special norms and rules for coastal house-

building, directed to the higher building stability under wave impact,

Creation of storm surges forecasting survey and its introduction into operation, including meteorological, oceanographic and administrative aspects,

Making of tsunami warning systems; Special education of coastal habitants, including local

population and tourists, about local natural indicators of possible negative events, available distress signal and human behavior in disaster period.

Risk assessment of extreme sea level of oscillations( according to general methodology of risk management )

Main steps can be defined as the following: Making up an Inventory of the coastal zone, including description of

objects, situated in the coastal zone; assessment of the industrious cycle breach consequences, their fire safety, presence of harmful and dangerous matters;

History study and data collection about previous disaster cases, assessment of its probability (Pa%) (for example, once in 5, 50 or 100 years). If the coast can be influenced by different disasters, every type is investigated separately;

Definition of risk limits, directed to the definition of (H); Assessment of probability of overdrawing (exceeding) of risk limits ( PH %)

(once for 5, 50, 100 years); Modeling of a dangerous event (mathematical or experimental) to

investigate factors, having an influence on characteristics of wave impact (K);

Calculation of the flood zone for events with different probability and mapping coastal zones, which can be flooded;

Risk level assessment for each zone, taking into account the inventory making data of the coastal zone (B);

Making zoning schemes, working out of recommendations and plans, elaboration of engineering measures of coastal protection from floods.

Possible scale of qualitative assessment of coastal zone state

in framework of risk management Qualitative characteristic of coastal zone Index (B)

Non developing coast. Density of population less than 1 person per one km.

There are small villages, private using of coastal resources (small boats, little aquaculture farms etc).

Coasts used recreation potential ( public beaches, separate houses and small hotels, yachting, walking roads etc).

Territory of little town with population less than 50 000 persons, industrial sphere of which is depended with marine resources (fishery, fishery industry, marine recreation industry, big hotels, small ports etc).

Urbanization coasts with developing coastal infrastructure (big towns, large ports, different kind of industries etc).

Coasts of potential dangerous (Nuclear power stations, big

chemical (toxic ) factories etc).

1

2

3

4

5

6

FLOOD 1 time in 100 years

1 time in 50 years

1 time in 5 years No damage Dangerous Beaches, Roads, Houses, plants, Forests, Summer buildings Electric Mean level Dunes, restaurants, power Cafe stations

H20% H2% H1%

Damage COSTS

Measures

Population at risk, Land losses (areas and capital), Safety, Damage WRM Damages (salt load), Shipping/Port damages etc.

Weather (sea level) forecasting, Tsunami warning system Measures Coastal engineering, Public education, Coastal zoning etc.

Illustration of procedure of coastal zoning, related with level raising risk management

Strategy of risk management related with possibility of oil spills.

A typical peculiarity of oil split is the damage of nature, environment and the coastal zone, exceeds many times the cost of the lost load. It is sufficiently to remember an event with tanker “Prestige”, happened in 2002 near the northern coast of Spain, as the result about ten thousand of oil spilled into the ocean. After reaching the coast, the spilled oil paralyzed life on the biggest part of Spain in the Galisia province. The consequences of this event were harmful not only for the nature, but also for the economics and social sphere of the Northern Spain.

13 Nov 2002

19 Nov 2002

The “Prestige” accident

General scheme of oil spills risk management

Identification of dangerous events

Estimation of consequence

Estimation of probability

Estimation of total effects

Variants of mitigation of

consequences

Variants of reduction of

frequency

Optimal variants of risk decrease

Risk Is

controlled

NO NO

YES

Identification of dangerous events, assessment of consequences, probability and total risk

Different ways of oil enter to the marine water area:

Carrying-out by a river discharge (run-off) (28 % of the total oil and oil-products entrance);

Discharge of wash and ballast water by ships (23%); Discharge in the ports and near-port water area,

including losses while loading (17%); Discharge of industrial wastes and run-off water (10%); Precipitation (10%); Accidents of ships and drill platform (6%); Heavy shower run-offs (5%); Shelf drilling (1%).

Identification of dangerous events, assessment of consequences, probability and total risk

Causes of ship accidents in the Baltic Sea (according to HELCOM) Causes Number of

accidents Probability

%

Grounding 219 46.5

Crash (collision with non moving object )

120 25.5

Collision of moving ships 81 17.2

Sinking, overturning, bad meteorological conditions

26 5.5

Ice conditions 16 3.4

Fires, overloading 9 1.9

Identification of dangerous events, assessment of consequences, probability and total risk

Oil spill risk assessment in the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland

The Baltic Sea The Gulf of Finland

1996 year 2010 year 1996 year

2010 year

Number of oil terminals 25 31 4 10

Oil transport, million tons 94.1 139,1 21.5 115.1

Number of tanker visits 849 1399.1 215.5 1151.1

Annual number of accidents 2.6(in fact)

4.3(forecast)

1(in fact)

5.3(forecast)

Variants of reduction of frequency

assessments made is based on existing history of ship’s accidents That’s why an important goal is to make higher the safety of navigating. In accordance with the plan of building new port structures in the eastern part of the Gulf of Finland, an automatic ship wiring system was planned. If level of ship’s accident will decrease in five times, the oil spill risk in the Gulf of Finland, including the case of biggest traffic intensity, will not increase in comparison with the present situation;

norms, determining the composition of ship navigation equipment, are to be improved. So, for example, at present it’s forbidden for ships to leave the water area of the Gulf of Finland (even in the area of the coastal zone) without satellite navigation equipment, GPS etc.

Variants of mitigation of consequences

liquidation accident oil spill plans are developed and come into usage;

special state services are created to take part in liquidation of the oil spill consequences operationally;

the exploitation rules of oil terminals demand from their owners have the corresponding technical equipment for operational oil spill liquidation in the port water area.

Optimal variant of risk mitigation

Norms come into usage which forbid oil and chemical load transportation by tankers without twofold sheathing (bordering) (two decks tankers). For example, the European Commission initiated activity, directed to prohibition of tankers with single sheathing by 2015. After the accident of the oil tanker, classified as river-sea going one on the Neva in 2001, the city administration and the Marine Saint-Petersburg Port administration prohibited single sheathing tankers passage on the river Neva;

The monitoring system of oil pollution and oil spill accidents registration is to be improved;

Remote system of control of ship traffic enforce; schemes of recommended transport ways are made; load transfer frequency at different parts of the rout is defined based on detail data, and in accordance with the latter the system of oil spill risks monitoring because of sea-going ships accidents is improved;

According to last regulation norm adopted by EU after “Prestige” incident, total responsibility related to the oil spills is entrusted on the ship’s owner. It means that total damage having to be done to environment or economy of local coasts have to be compensated by company –owner of tanker.

TEMPUS/Erasmus -Mundus: EU-COMET 2

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