TEMA 1 Lectura Michael Bordoi

7/27/2019 TEMA 1 Lectura Michael Bordoi

1/31

SUMMARY

he risis prolem is one of the dominnt mroeonomi fetures of our geF tsprominene suggests questions like the followingX re rises growing more frequentc

re they eoming more disruptivec re eonomies tking longer to reoverc hese

re fundmentlly historil questionsD whih n e nswered only y ompring

the present with the pstF o this endD this pper develops nd nlyses dt

se spnning IPH yers of finnil historyF e find tht risis frequeny sine

IWUQ hs een doule tht of the retton oods nd lssil gold stndrd

periods nd is rivlled only y the risisEridden IWPHs nd IWQHsF istory thus

onfirms tht there is something different nd disturing out our geF oweverD

there is little evidene tht rises hve grown longer or output losses hve eome

lrgerF rises my hve grown more frequentD in other wordsD ut they hve not

oviously grown more severeF ur explntion for the growing frequeny nd

hroni osts of rises fouses on the omintion of pitl moility nd the

finnil sfety netD inluding the impliit insurne ginst exhnge risk

provided y n ex nte redile poliy of pegging the exhnge rteD whih

enourges nks nd orportions to umulte exessive foreign urreny

exposuresF e lso provide poliy reommendtions for restoring stility nd

growthF

ihel ordoD rry ihengreenD niel lingeiel nd

ri oledd rtinezEeri

ionom oly eprl PHHI rntd n qrt frtn# giD giD wD PHHIF

Financial

crises

Lesso

nsfro

mthe

last 1

20yea

rs


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Is the crisis problem growingmore severe?

Michael Bordo, Barry Eichengreen, Daniela Klingebiel andMaria Soledad Martinez-Peria

Rutgers University; University of California, Berkeley; World Bank; World Bank

1. INTRODUCTION

h rss prolm s on o th domnnt turs o th IWWHsF nnl hstors o

th ddD hn thy r ultmtly rttnD ll undoutdly ornzd round th

iuropn xhn rt rss o IWWPQD th ul rss o IWWRSD th esn rss

o IWWUVD th frzln rss o IWWVWD nd th ussvgw rF ht so mny

psods o nnl turuln nd dstrss r pkd nto so yrs ponts to ht

s n nd trouln out th onom nd nnl nronmnt n hh

urrntly lF

r dos tc h prms mplt n mny ounts o th most rnt ddD tht th

rss prolm s ron mor srD s just tht mpltF mrklyD polymkrs

nd sholrs n nohr nd systmtD untttD mprl study on hos ss

th uston posd n th ttl o our ppr n ddrssdF in tht hndul o studs

hh omprs th IWWHs th th mmdtly prdn dds (FFD ntrntonl

wontry undD IWWVY gpro nd lnlD IWWWA should rt som unsnss on

th prt o thos prsumn tht ours s dstnt o nnl nstltyF hr

r rtul to mm fyoumD lppo gsrnoD nr lnhD groln ohlnD r nsonD vrs onunD n or

lolndD ol vudrsD m sD qor hD nl ldoD eln ylorD ql rnrD nd nt rt or hlp th dtF

or l ssstn thnk grlos erttD onl hnrD qln lD iln qoldmnD ghrs wssnrD entu wurshd nd

nn ldkoEollrF thnk hrd fldnD hrd ortsD endr osD nd ghrls yplosz or sustonsF

h orld fnk srh gommtt nd th fi prodd nnl supportF on o th opnons xprssd hr r

nssrly thos o th orld fnk or o ny othr ornzton th hh th uthors r ltdF

egev gi SQ


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rss hronolos sust tht urrny nd nkn rss r hron prolms not

just n th IWWHs ut n th prdn yrs s llF enyon old nouh to rmmr th

IWVHs ll not surprsdF s t rlly truD n othr ordsD tht th rss prolm s

ron mor srce omprson o th IWVHs th th IWWHs s hrdly n dut ss or

nrlztonD o oursF n ths ppr thror lort th omprson lon our

dmnsonsF rstD ompr th rnt prod th mor thn ntury o nnl

rssD dstnushn th frtton oods prod (IWRS UIAD th ntrr yrs

(IWIWQWAD nd th old stndrd r (IVVHIWIQAF ondD xtnd th omprson

rom th runy o rss to thr dpth nd durtonF hrdD ompr th output

losss rom rss th th output losss rom rssons n hh no rss ourrdF

ourth nd nllyD sk hthr th pttrns osr n th runyD srty nd

lonty o rss r st xpll n trms o ntrntonl onom pols (th

lxlty o th xhn rt nd th opnnss o th ptl ountA or th

mnmnt o th domst nnl systmF t ll dnt tht ths to sts o

rls orrspond to th to ldn xplntons or th rnt esn rssD on

hh ttruts ts outrk nd srty to ntrntonl onom pols (unsustnE

l urrny ps nd prptous ptlEount lrlztonAD th othr hh

lms t on ld domst nnl rultonF hs llustrts ho our ndns n

usd to shd lht on th nrlty o populr xplntons or th rnt spt o

rssFfy pln ontmporry xprn n ts hstorl ontxtD hop to l to

dtrmn ht onlusons should drn rom rnt rss out th oprton o

ntrntonl ptl mrktsF or somD th runy nd srty o rss n th IWWHs

pont to th dnrs o nnl lrlzton nd th nlty o nnl mrkts to

llot rsours ntlyF or othrsD th rss prolm rlts not th rsks o nnl

lrlzton nd th nny o drultd mrkts ut rthr th tndny or

ornmnts to run montry nd sl pols nonsstnt th xhnErt nd

nnl stlty nd or ntonl nd ntrntonl uthorts to kn mrkt

dspln y ndsrmntly prodn ptl nd ludty support to dstrssd nnl

nsttutons nd ln out dpostors nd rdtors o ths nsttutonsF en hstorl

prspt n hlp to dtrmn hh o ths s s mor nrlly ppllF s th

rss prolm most sr n prods hn nnl mrkts r lrlzd nd ptl

ounts r opnc s t ron th th propnsty o ornmnts to prod domst

nnl nsttutons th ludty nd ptl supportc ustons suh s ths n only

nsrd y omprn th IWWHs th rlr prodsF

dtl our rss dntton mthodoloy nd dsuss th mn turs o th

dt n th nxt stonF etr thtD study hthr rss mk rssons ors(ton QAD hthr ptl ontrols t th runy o rss (ton RAD nd ho

poly ts rss srty (ton SAF ur onlusons nd poly rommndtons r

n th nl stonF e eppndxD hh prods mor dtl on our dt nd

mthodsD n ound on httpXGGFonomEpolyForF

SR wgeiv f F


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2. COUNTING CRISES

n ny study o rss turns on ho ths nts r dntdD th rst ordr o

usnss s to dsr ho solt thmF (or ddtonl dtlsD s th

eppndx ll t httpXGGFonomEpolyForFA

2.1. How to spot a crisis

dn nnl rss s psods o nnlEmrkt oltlty mrkd y snnt

prolms o lludty nd nsolny mon nnlEmrkt prtpnts ndaor y

ol ntrnton to ontn suh onsunsF or n psod to uly s nkn

rssD must osr nnl dstrss rsultn n th roson o most or ll o

rt nkn systm ptlD s n gpro nd lnl (IWWTD IWWWAF or n

psod to uly s urrny rssD must osr ord hn n prtyD

ndonmnt o pd xhn rtD or n ntrntonl rsuF n ddtonD

onstrut th mlr ndx o xhn mrkt prssur (lultd s htd

r o xhn rt hnD shortEtrm ntrst rt hnD nd rsr hn

rlt to th sm or th ntr ountryD th or IWIQ nd th trAF e

rss s sd to our hn ths ndx xds rtl thrsholdF sor n psod s

urrny rss hn t shos up ordn to thr or oth o ths ndtorsF

omtmsD rss om n sD th n on rkn out or rory romts prdssor s ompltF ettmptn to lult sprt rory tms or output

losss n suh ss s prolmt (t ould not lrD or xmplD hh prt o th

output loss should ttrutd to hh ntAF uss rss tht rupt or

rory rom rst rss s omplt r thror sord s on ntF

or th ntr IPHEyr prodD h dt or PI ountrsD hh ollo

throuh tmF o ltt omprsons th othr studs lso onsdr or th postE

IWUQ prod lrr smpl o ST onomsF h omplt lst o rss n ound n

th eppndx mntond oF

2.2. Severity and frequency

o unty th dpth nd durton o rssD omput th trnd rt o q roth

or th yrs prdn th ntF ory tmD tht sD rss durtonD s lultd

s th numr o yrs or q roth rturns to tht trndF grss dpth s thn th

output lossD hh lult y umultn rom th onst to th rory th

drn tn prErss trnd roth nd tul rothF

lnlyD thr s no snl orD or tht mttrD st y o msurn ths outputlosssF wuldr nd oh (PHHHA ru tht th pproh usd hr ll orstt suh

losss us prErss roth tnds to unsustnly hhD rndrn t n

npproprt ss or omprsonF hy lso osr tht truntn th lulton t

th pont hr th roth rt rturns to trnd ll undrstt th loss us th ll

egev gi SS


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o outputD s dstnt rom th roth rtD rmns dprssd or srl susunt

yrsF fut thr s no rson to thnk tht ths ss r mor sr n on prod thn

nothrF n r onrnd th ntrtmporl omprsonsD suh ss r lkly

to o lss momnt hr thn n othr ppltonsFgomprn th hour o output round rss th ts hour round rssons

rurs dt or th lttrF hl or th h fi dtsD smlr dts do not

xst or ll PI ountrs onsdr or IWUI or or th n lrr ountry smpl

onsdr susuntlyF thror usd sttstl thnu lld th ndEpss

ltr (s tok nd tsonD IWWWA to dt rssonsF (ntutlyD th ndEpss ltr

dnts dts hn ountrys roth rt slps lo ts trndY mor thnl

dsusson n ound n th eppndxFA or th thr s rsonl

onormn tn th fi dts nd thos otnd usn th ltrF

hr r rsons to orry out th onsstny o th usnss yl proprts o

q sttsts spnnn mor thn nturyF or th ntd ttsD omr (IWVWA nd

flk nd qordon (IWVWA h ttmptd to djust th hstorl sttsts or yll

onsstny th modrn dtF ssurnlyD prous studs o th hnn lnth nd

srty o rssons h otnd smlr rsults usn ths ltrnt srsF

ur I summrzs th runy o rss (th numr o rss ddd y th

numr o ountry yr osrtonsD y prodAD mmdtly sustn tht th rss

prolm hs ron sn IWUQF h r t th r rhtD ndtn runy o IPFP7

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Frequency(ann

ual%p

robability)

18801913 19191939 1945 1971 1973 1997

(21 countries)

1973 1997

(56 countries)

Banking crises Currency crises Twin crises All crises

pigure IF risis frequenyD IVVH IWWU

oureX euthors lultonsF

ST wgeiv f F


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or our STEountry smpl or th postEIWUP prodD mns tht ths ountrs h hd

nrly on n ht hn o surn urrny rssD nkn rssD or tn rss n

n yrF h rst thr sts o rs sho tht ths s hh y hstorl stndrds or

xmplD t s nrly PIP tms th IVVH IWIQ rtF h prEIWIQ omprson thus

susts tht rss t th rt h n xprnn thm r not n ntl

orollry o lolztonF

2.3. Currency crises

ur I lso mks lr tht t s th runy o urrny rss tht xplns hy th

rt o ndn hs n so rt sn IWUQF nly n th frtton oods prod

(IWRSUIA dos on s n ndn o urrny rss nrly s rtFI h lssr

runy o urrny rss or IWIQD hn ptl ontrols r snt nd ptl

molty rhd hh llsD hllns th noton tht t s nnl lolztonD pur

nd smplD tht hs rtd nstlty n orn xhn mrktsF thrD thr

pprs to n nrs n th ndn o urrny rss or tmD s tors n

ddton to nnl ntrtonD hh hs Eshpd tm prolD nlun thr

ndnF h trnd s not monotonD horY th runy o urrny rss

dlns tr IWUP hn ollo th PIEountry smpl throuhoutF (wororD thr

r sns o urthr dln n th runy o urrny rss tr th mdEIWVHs n

th lrr smpl s llFA fut ths only rnors our pont tht th xtnt o ptlmolty s not sunt xplnton or th runy o urrny rssF

n ntrprtton o th rs o urrny rss rus tht dmortzton hs md

t mor dult or ornmnts to rdly ommt to xhn rt stlzton nd to

suordnt ll othr ols o poly to th mntnn o urrny p (FFD

ihnrnD IWWT nd nnD IWWUAF es rsultD urrny ps lk th rdlty thy

possssd or IWIQF h mplton s tht t s th omintiono ptl molty nd

dmortzton not ptl molty per se tht hs undrmnd th rdlty o

xhn rt ommtmnts nd md urrny ps mor rlF

2.4. Banking and twin crises

h prod o xptonl nstlty or nkn nd tn rss s th ntrr prodF

eondos o th qrt prsson ll not surprsdF sturnlyD horD our r

s los hndF n ontrstD nkn rss r lmost nonExstnt n th hydy o

frtton oodsD somthn tht s not lso tru o urrny rssD s s momnt

oF husD hl th tht rulton o domst nd ntrntonl ptl mrktsD

hh hrtrzd th orld ollon orld r D supprssd nkn rss lmost

I om my sh to dsmss som o ths rnt psods s psudo urrny rss on th round tht thy my not h hd

th sm nt rprussons on th rl onomy s urrny rss ourrn n som rlr prodsF n tD s sho

loD th r output loss du to urrny rss hs n rodly smlr sn IWUQD n th frtton oods yrsD nd n

or IWIQF nt urrny rss r not psudo rss n trms o th ssotd output lossF

egev gi SU


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ompltly n th IWSHs nd IWTHsD ontrols on ptl los r lss sussul n

supprssn urrny rssF wororD th ontrst th IVVH IWIQD hn th

ndn o oth nkn nd tn rss s lorD n susts tht lm or th

runy o rss tody nnot smply ld on th doorstp o nnl lrlzton suh lrlzton s ully prlnt or IWIQF

h drn n rsults or th to postEIWUP smpls (or PI nd ST ountrsA

rls hr th rtr runy s onntrtdD nmlyD n th ddtonl

dlopn ountrs nludd n th lrr smplD hh tnd to younrD smllrD

nd lss dlopdF hr s stll n nrs n rss runy hn stk th th

PIEountry smplD ut t s lss pronoundF nddD dtld look t th dt (s

eppndxA susts tht rss h lys tndd to prdomnntly n mrnE

mrkt prolmD th or US7 o prEIWIQ rss ourrn n mrn mrkt

ntonsD lthouh th qrt prssonD hn nnl stlty n th ndustrl ntr

m sultyD s promnnt xptonF (wor thn US7 o rss n ths prod

r ntrd n ndustrl ountrsFA n n rthmt snsD lr prt o ths hn

stms rom th t tht numr o nntnth ntury mrn mrkts hd om

ndustrl onoms y th ntrr yrsY ths ld us to rlssy nn o our prEIWIQ

mrn ntons nto ndustrl ntons postEIWIWF husD not too muh should rd

nto ths prtulr numrsF fut thr s stll n onom pontF irlr sholrs h

ontrstd th stlty o th ntr th th nstlty o th prphry undr th old

stndrd (rnD IWTRY d goD IWURA hl osrn tht th rss prolmrttd to th ntr tn th rs (frnnk nd msD IWWIAF ur rsults r

onsstnt th ths ntrprttonF

drs my ondrn hthr rss h n ron mor runt withinth

most rnt prodF thror ddd th IWUQWU prod n toD tkn IWVV (th

o lrEsl portolo ptl los to mrn mrktsA s th ddn lnF ntrstnlyD

t turns out tht urrny rss r tully mor prlnt n IWUQ VU thn

susuntly (runs or to prods r VFV7 nd SFT7 rsptlyAF ht h

n on th rsD horD r nkn rss ndD throrD tn rssD hos runy

nrsd ut notly tn suEprodsF pllyD th runy o nkn

rss douls n th PIEountry smpl tn th to prodsD nd rss y SH7 n th

STEountry smplF hs ponts lrly to ht s n nd trouln out our F

2.5. Duration and depth of crises

l I shos tht th story or durton drs shrply rom th story or runyF

gurrny rss r snntly lonr pror to IWIQ thn sn IWUQD ontrst tht s

most drmt or th ndustrl ountrs (s eppndx on httpXGGFonomEpolyForAF orD th othr prods r slly ndstnushlF h oppost

holds or tn rssY th numr o yrs ndd to ror rom th ntsD rthr thn

llnD hs n rsnD n most notly n th ndustrl ountrsF h durton o

nkn rssD y ontrstD sms lttl hnd or our smplF ut ths rossEuttn

SV wgeiv f F


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trnds tothr nd t ollos tht thr s lttl sn o onsstnt hn n rss durton

or tmF

PFSFIF he resumtion ruleF hs ndns onsttut snnt hlln to th

onntonl sdomD rprsntd y qoodhrt nd lry (IWWWAF hos uthors

ru tht ountrs should h rord rom urrny rss mor ukly undr thold stndrd thn tody on to th soElld rsumpton rul (ountrs ord o

thr old stndrd ps otn souht to rsum onrtlty t th prErss prty on

th rss pssdAF ernss o ths rsumpton rul should h stlzd ptl losD

s orn unds lod k nD n ntpton o th ptl ns tht ould ru

hn th xhn rt s pushd k upF hs rturn o lht ptlD qoodhrt nd

lry ruD should h ostrd st roryF hy thn r th hstorl

rord or th prEIWIQ prod nd onlud tht t s onsstnt th thr F

hsD horD s not ht ndF n our lrr smpl o pur urrny rssD

r rory tm s shortr tr IWUQ thn or IWIQ (PFI rsus PFT yrsAD not

lonr s qoodhrt nd lry sustFP

fus stron poly rommndtons h n sd on th onntonl

sdomD ths ndn s notorthyF nk (IWWVAD or nstnD susts tht th esn

rss ountrs should h somho rstord thr urrns to prErss lls to

stlz xpttons nd rn nstor ondnF wnnon (PHHHDA ts th

qoodhrtlry ndn n run tht ist esn ountrs should stlsh ol

dollr prts nd ommt to rturnn to thm tr ny rssF ur ndns sust tht

suh rommndtons should tkn th rn o sltF

le IF urtion nd deth of rises

ell ountrs IVVHIWIQ IWIW IWQW IWRS IWUI IWUQIWWUPI ntons

IWUQIWWUST ntons

er durton o rss n yrsgurrny rss PFT IFW IFV IFW PFIfnkn rss PFQ PFR QFI PFTn rss PFP PFU IFH QFU QFVell rss PFR PFR IFV PFT PFS

er rss dpth (umult q loss n 7Agurrny rss VFQ IRFP SFP QFV SFWfnkn rss VFR IHFS UFH TFPn rss IRFS ISFV IFU ISFU IVFTell rss WFV IQFR SFP UFV VFQ

otesX

ndts no rssoureX euthors lultonsF

P h qoodhrtlry onluson s sd on nlyss o only sx psodsF wororD torz som o thr urrny

rss s tn rss (tlyD IVWR nd IWHVD erntnD IVWHA or nkn rss (eustrlD IVWQAF h rsumptonErul rumnt

dos not oously ld on to xpt rpd rory rom nkn rssD nd ndd th spd o rory rom pur nkn

rss s lmost xtly th sm or IWIQ s tr IWUPF

egev gi SW


9/31

PFSFPF risis deth nd mixF h orll mprsson lt y ths omprson o rss

durton s ho lttl hs hndF h uston thn oms hthr th sm s tru

o othr spts o ths ntsF es l I shosD th urs on rss dpthD lk

durtonD do not sust tht th rss prolm s ron mor srFh output loss rom urrny rss s only hl to toEthrds tody ht t s n

th pror o lolztonF h output loss rom nkn rss s only US7 to VH7

tody ht t s tn IVVH nd IWIQF nly tn rss my h ron mor

srD nd th drn s slhtF

h drns tht do stnd out r th xptonl srty o rss (o ll kndsA n

th ntrr yrs nd th mportn o mxF rtulrly mprss r th lr

output losss s rsult o urrny rss n th IWPHs nd IWQHs (nrly t s lr s

n IVVHIWIQY nrly thr tms s lr s undr frtton oods nd todyAF n

rssD splly n mrn onomsD r lso mor sr thn n othr prodsF

or nkn rssD th pttrn s mutd ut stll thrF

h mportn o mx s dnt n th omprson o th frtton oods prod th

todyF gonsdrn ll rssD output loss s muh lrr todyD ut ths s ntrly du to

th omposton tY output loss rom h typ o rss hs slly n stlD ut

nkn nd tn rss hh r mor sr thn urrny rss r mor

promnnt n todys mxF

ot ll o th rss dnty r ssotd th output losssF n tD no rsson

ompnd out urtr o rss sn IWUQ (s th eppndxAF h xptonsDnot surprsnlyD r th tn rssD hh r lys dsrupt to rothF h pttrn s

smlr or rlr hstorl prodsD lthouh thr r rtonsF or xmplD rss

mor unormly usd output losss pror to IWIQ thn n th frtton oods or ntrr

yrsF ssurnlyD lttl hns hn lmt th smpl to rss th output losssF

rllD thnD rss dpth nd durton tll smlr storsF hl rss h ron

mor runtD thy h not ron mor srF nythnD th durton o rss nd

thr output losss r rtr n th prod o lolzton ldn up to IWIQF h

qrt prsson nd frtton oods prods r drntD th ormr us o th

xptonl srty o oth urrny nd nkn rssD th lttr or th rtul sn

o nkn rssF fut ths drns r promnntD th smlrts rD nythnD

mor promnnt stllF

3. DO CRISES MAKE RECESSIONS WORSE?

hs output losss rom rss r lss mprss thy r ndstnushl rom th

output losss n rssons not ompnd y rssF hl rss otn our n

rssonsD t ould tht th ourrn o rss dds nothn to th srty o thosrssonsD nd tht ll r pkn up s th output ts o th lttrF

o nd outD msur th srty o rsson y umultn output losssD

strtn rom th rst yr ollon th usnssEyl pk nd ontnun to th yr

hn roth rturns to ts prErss trndF or rssons th rssD n umult

TH wgeiv f F


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output loss rom th nnn o th rsson n th rss oms srl yrs nto

th rssonFQ

h rsultsD n ur P (top pnlAD onrm tht rssons th rss r mor sr

thn rssons thout thmF hs s tru or rtully ry prod nd typ o ountryonsdrdF h ontrst s most pronound n th ntrr prod not surprsnlyD

with and wi thout cr ises

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

%G

DPloss

18801913 19191939 19451971 19731997(21 nations)

19731997(56 nat ions)

GDP loss with and wi thout cr ises

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

years

18801913 19191939 19451971 19731997

(21 nations)

19731997

(56 nations)

Average recovery time

pigure PF eessions with nd without rises


Q lso lultd umult loss dtd rom th rss onstF h nrl pttrn s th sm ut th mntud o th loss s

oously smllrF

egev gi TI


11/31

n th mportn tthd to rss n ounts o th qrt prssonF ur D n

othr ordsD s not xptonl n ths rrdF h output loss s out tn prnt

ponts lrr n rssons th rss thn n rssons thout thm oth sn IWUQ

(hn onsdr ll ST ountrsD s s our onntonA nd or IWIQD rsult ththolds n mor stronly onsdr only th PIEountry smpl sn IWUQF n th

frtton oods prodD th ddtonl output loss s slhtly smllrD ut slhtly s th

oprt ordF enD hl rss my h n ron mor runtD thy h not

oously n ron mor ostlyF

h ottom pnl o ur P onrms tht r rory tms tll th sm storyF

ssons th rss lst lonr thn rssons thout thmF h drn s most

drmt n th ntrr yrsF fut n n th othr prodsD hn t s lssD th

drntl n rsson lnth s n th ordr o SH7F

3.1. Controlling for other characteristics of cycles

hr r t lst to rsons to pus or onludn tht rss mk rssons

orsF rstD smpl omprsons tht l to ontrol or othr tors n onl

rulrts or sust spurous onsF ondD orrlton sys nothn out usltyY

rss my ostr sr rssonsD or sr rssons my ostr rssF no dlop

modl th hh to tst ths hypothssF

QFIFIF ontrolling for other ftorsF kn th rsson s th unt o osrtonD

rlt th output loss to rous hrtrsts o th yl nd to dummy rl

or hthr or not rss s osrdF es hrtrsts o th yl nlud th

r roth rt n th yrs prdn th donturnD sn ork on rdt

ooms susts th mor rpd s roth n usnss yl upsn th shrpr s th

ontrton n th donsn (qn nd usmnnD IWWTAD nd rl tht

dstnushs tn ndustrl nd mrn mrkt ntonsD ollon th ltrtur

tht susts tht usnssEyl oltlty s rtr n mrn mrktsF sn

stndrd sttstl produr (lst sursAD look t ho ll our xplntory

rls ount or th dpth o rssonsF

l P rports th rsults or th ntr prod nd or th postEIWUQ yrsF h

post ont on xpnsonEphs roth (r rothA onrms th rdtE

oom hypothssD hl th post ont on th ndustrl nton rl susts

tht rssons r not mor sr n mrn mrkts nythn th oppost s

truF lso ontrolld or prodEsp tors y nludn xdEt dummy

rls or suEprodsF hs rsults (not rportdA sust tht rssons r slhtly

mor sr undr th old stndrd nd n th ntrr yrsD othr thns ulD ndlss sr undr frtton oodsD lthouh only ths lst drn s snntF

h ont on th ll rss rl s o prtulr ntrstF h pont stmt o

VFTU mns tht th umult output loss s out nn prnt ponts rtr n

rssons th rss ur rssurnly smlr to tht sustd oF h

TP wgeiv f F


12/31

ont s sttstlly snnt t ry hh ondn ll (WW7AF n othr ordsD

n tr ontrol or othr hrtrsts o th ountry nd th yl tht mk

rtn rssons unusully srD thr s stll n ssoton tn rss nd th

output lossF

n th rhtEhnd prt o th top pnlD sprt urrnyD nkn nd tn rssF

ell thr r postly ssotd th th srty o rssonsD urrny nd tn rss

snntly soF n rss dd n ddtonl IS prnt ponts o output lossD hl

urrny rss r out hl s dsruptD nkn rss urtrF hs lst rsult s

surprsnF dd not xpt urrny rss to so muh mor dsrupt thnnkn rssF

sults or th IWUQWU prod (lor pnlA r strtlnly smlrF n rss r

n t s dsrupt s urrny rssD hh r t s dsrupt s nkn

rssF h pont stmts r slhtly lrr thn or th lonr prod ut non drs

snntly rom ts ullEsmpl luF husD orml tsts nnot rjt th null tht th

output ts o urrnyD nkn nd tn rss rmn th sm tody s or th

ntury tht ndd n IWUIF

3.2. Direction of causality

hl h no ontrolld or othr hrtrsts o yls tht t th srty o

rssonD th nrns dr rom l P my sd on n npproprt

le PF eth of reessions with nd without risesX regression nlysis

rl gont tEsttst rl gont tEsttst

IVVHIWWU (dpndnt rl 7 loss o outputA

gonstnt TFQQ PFSI gonstnt TFVT QFTSer roth QFPH WFHV er roth QFIW WFPSndustrl nton PFQT IFVQ ndustrl nton PFUR PFIPell rss VFTU SFSP fnkn rss QFPP IFUP

gurrny rss UFUW RFITn rss IRFVR RFVU

QSID P HXRI QSID P HXRI

IWUQIWWU (dpndnt rl 7 loss o outputAgonstnt VFIV PFTT gonstnt UFWV PFRTer roth QFHW SFVU er roth QFHH TFQQndustrl nton SFRS QFHV ndustrl nton SFVW QFRT

ell rss IHFSH SFWV fnkn rss RFRR PFQHgurrny rss VFTU RFQUn rss ISFWS SFRP

IRHD P HXRH IRHD P HXRT

otesX tEsttsts r lultd usn ht htrosdstty onsstnt stndrd rrorsF h rrsson orth poold smpl (IVVHIWWUA lso nluds prod xd ts (not rportdAF intrs n old dnotonts tht dr snntly rom zro t th WS7 ondn llF


egev gi TQ


13/31

ssumpton out th drton o usltyD hh ould run rom rssons to rss

rthr thn rom rss to rssonsF hos ho rrd usnssEyl lututons s

undmntl nd rss s phmr (FFD hrtzD IWVT nd qortonD IWVVA ould

susr to ths F o ddrss ths possltyD mploy toEstp sttstlthnu (to st lst sursA tht sks to lmnt th posslty o rrs

usltyF do so s ollosF n th rst stpD stmt multnoml lot rrssons

o th rss ndtors (hr th rss ndtor n tk on our lus dnotn

urrny rssD nkn rssD tn rssD or no rssD nd ths ltrnts r

mutully xlusA on ls o nltonD th rto o rod mony (wPA to rsrsD th

rto o wP to qD th trd lnD th udt lnD dummy rl or

urrny psD dummy rl or ptl ontrolsD nd msur o rss n

nhourn ountrs s proxy or rss ontonF h us o ld lus

nrss th lklhood tht ths r ld nstrumntsF (en ltrnt spton tht

drops th ontonD p nd trdEln rls ylds th sm rsultsD s notd

loFA n th sond stpD ttd lus r usd n pl o th tul rss ndtorsF

h rsult s tht th t o rss on rsson srtyD tht sD th pont stmt on ll

rssD s no lrr thn orD mplyn umult IR prnt ponts o lost

rothD nd th ont stll sly drs rom zro t th WS7 ondn llF

dsly rjt th ssrton tht th orrlton s du only to th t o rssons on

rssF

QFPFIF he uses of risesF t s tmptn to us th rst st dsrd o to

nlys th uss o rssF hs s tntmount to ttmptn to onstrut ldnE

ndtor modl o urrny nd nkn rss somthn tht sD horD

prolmtF es mphszd y ihnrn et lF (IWWSAD ttmpts to sttstlly rlt

rss to undmntls r unlkly to h hh xplntory por us

undmntls r only prt o th xplntonF wodls o slEullln nk runs nd

multpl ulr n orn xhn mrkts (soElld sond nrton modls o

spult ttksA sust tht thr s unlkly to smpl mppn rom

undmntls to rss ndnF gonsstnt th ths D ll th dn s tht rss

r htronousF hs r thortl nd mprl rsons not to xpt too muhF

n lht o ths tsD rly on smpl tultons to dnty rulrtsF emon

th most mportnt rulrts to mr rom suh tultons s th drn n rss

ndn n ountrs th nd thout ptl ontrolsD tht sD ntonl rstrtons on

nrd ndaor outrd momnts o ptlF t s to thr rol tht no turnF

4. CAPITAL CONTROLS AND CRISES

hl populr ommnttors otn lm th nrsnly r molty o nnl

ptl or rnt rssD our dt sust tht th story s mor omplxF es ur Q

llustrtsD urrny rss r morD not lssD lkly n ountrs th ptl ontrolsY ths

s tru o ry prod ut th rstD hn ontrols r unormly sntF n th othr

TR wgeiv f F


14/31

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Frequency

18801913 19191939 19451971 19731997

(21 nations)

19731997

(56 nations)

Currency crises nations with controls nations without controls

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Frequency

18801913 19191939 19451

All crises wit

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Frequency

18801913 19191939 19451971 19731997

(21 nations)

19731997

(56 nations)

Twin crises with and without

0.484

0.016

0.516

1.016

1.516

2.016

2.516

3.016

3.516

4.016

4.516

Frequenc

y

18801913 19191939 1945

Banking crises

pigure QF rises frequeny in ntions with nd without itl ontrols



15/31

hndD nkn rss h n lss runt sn IWUQ hn ontrols r prsntD

lthouh th sm pttrn s not dnt n rlr yrsF foth rsults r roust to orml

sttstl nlyss (s th ppndx loAX n tr ontrolln or thr othr

dtrmnntsD nkn rss r lss runt ut urrny rss r mor runt nth prsn o ptl ontrolsF lso nd tht th dtrmnnts o rss r no

drntD n orml sttstl snsD tody thn or th ntr hstorl spF husD

our nlyss ontnus to undrsor th xtnt o ontnutyF

h post ssoton o ontrols th urrny rss s onsstnt th thortl

ork sustn tht ontrols nln ornmnts to rskr pols nd my mk

mrkt prtpnts dout th rdnss o th uthorts to dnd n xhn rt

(frtoln nd rznD IWWUDAF h to mprl studs o ths ssu o hh r

rD qlk nd uthson (PHHHA nd vln (PHHHAD lso nd tht ountrs mposn

ontrols r mor lkly to xprn urrny rssF

h nt orrlton tn ontrols nd nkn rss s lso n ln th

thory nd rnt xprnF n th ltrtur on th esn rssD or nstnD t s

rud tht th sene o ontrols prmttd nks nd orportons to und thmsls

oshor nd thus lr up thr tsD somthn tht th ntts n uston r

nourd to do y th t tht thy r shltrd y nnl sty nt nd

mplt xhn rt urnts (qoldstnD IWWVAF ur mprl ndns sust tht

ths pttrn s not nF

n shortD ptl ontrols mr s ky dtrmnnt o rss runy n thtntth nturyF hr prsn or sn s t lst prt o th xplnton or hy

nkn rss h ron mor runt hl urrny rss h om lss

runt sn th lt IWVHsF h rmol o ontrolsD n onjunton th th hns

n poltl sttn mphszd oD thus hlps to ount or th most mportnt

tur dstnushn th IWWHs rom most o th ntury tht prdd tF

5. POLICY AND THE COST OF CRISES

n onsdrd th dtrmnnts o rss runyD th nxt uston s ht

dtrmns thr srtyF nortuntlyD onomsts h not rrd t onsnsus on

ht dtrmns th osts o urrny nd nkn rssF thror strt y hkn

our dt or smpl orrltons tn poly rms nd th rss srtyD tkn th

umult loss o output (s dnd oA to our msur o srtyFR hr smpl

omprsons sust rulrts or mportnt hns ross rmsD thn sk

hthr or not tht pttrn s roust to mor orml sttstl nlyssF hr t sD

n sy tht h dntd n mportnt dtrmnnt o rss srtyF

onsdrd rty o potntl xplntons or th ost o rssX urrnt ount

lnsD udt lnsD hthr th urrny s lotnD hthr ptl ontrols r

R utput loss s only on ost msurF gurrny rss n nol loss o rdlty nd nkn rss nol sl osts to

txpyrsD hh my nlud n nlton txF onohn nd lnl (PHHHA nd qupt et lF (PHHHA on suh ssusF

TT wgeiv f F


16/31

prsntD nd nnl systm strutur (FFD hthr drnt nnl ntrmdton

untons n rrd out y snl nsttuton soElld unrsl nkn r

strtly sprtdD or r n tnAF or nkn rssD lso onsdr pols usd to

ltt rss rsolutonD onstrutn msur o opnEndd ludty support (thproson o nnl support to dstrssdD otn nsolnt nnl nsttutonsA nd o

ptl support (hr pul rsours r usd to rEptlz prolm nksAF nllyD

numrt nstns hn ornmnts prod unlmtd urnts to dpostors

nd rdtors o nnl nsttutons n th ttmpt to stm loss o ondn n th

systmF

5.1. Currency crises

n rn our dtD th ost o urrny rss dd not sm to systmtlly

nlund y ntons udt lnD nnl systm struturD xhn rt

rmD or ptl ount rmF h urrnt ount dtD on th othr hndD dos

sm to mttrF

or urrny rssD ur R shos tht or th postEIWUP yrsD ut not orD th

ost s rtr hn th urrnt ount dt s llod to dn snntly n th

prdn prodF hs rsult s roust to orml sttstl nlyss tht lso ontrols or

th mpt o othr dtrmnntsF n l QD ths s dnt n th nt ndsttstlly snnt ont on th urrnt ount rl (l o urrnt ount

to qA or th postEIWUP yrs ut not or th prod s holF h sm s tru

hthr or not tn rss dummy s nluddF h lttr s lso onsstntly snnt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1618

20

%G

DPloss

18801913 19191939 19451971 19731997

(21 countries)

19731997(56 countries)

with current account deficit without current account deficit

pigure RF verge urreny risis deth nd urrent ount defiits

egev gi TU


17/31

t onntonl ondn llsD onrmn tht urrny rss r mor ostly hn

thy r ompnd y nknEstor prolmsF

SFIFIF he sudden sto rolemF h mpt o th urrnt ount plusly rlts

th suddnEstop prolmD n hh n rupt sston o ptl nlos rurs th

urrnt ount dt to ukly lmntd y th omprsson o onsumptonD

nstmnt nd mport spndnD thus potntlly usn ollps o output nd don

dm to th nnl systmF

t s strkn tht ths prolm s pprnt n th postEIWUP prod ut not orF h

drn s not tht lr urrnt ount dts r snt n rlr yrs (to th

ontrryD s shon yD inter liD ylorD IWWTAD ut rthr tht thy dd not ld to

suddn stopsF th QQ rss tht r prdd y urrnt ount dts n th

prod IVVHIWUPD dts r trnsormd nto surpluss n th yr ollon th

rss n only sx ss ( rto o IS7AF h sm s tru n IV o th RV rss prdd

y dts n th IWUQWU prod ( rto nrly t s lrAF hl th omprson s

rudD t susts tht urrnt ount rrsls h n str n th rnt prod nd

ths str rrsls n turn ld to ostlr urrny rssF

trmnn just hy suddn stops r lss runt nd sr n rlr rs s lkly

to rur n hstorl nstton yond th sop o ths rtlF orD th

hstorl ltrtur ors hnts out ho ountrs ould run prsstnt urrnt ountdts or IWIQ otn o sz unmthd n th mdEtoElt tntth ntury

thout surn dlttn ntrruptonsF or xmplD s (IWQHA nd shlo (IWVTA

mphsz th prtEtoEprt ntur o los nd stron omplmntrts tn

trd los nd ptl losF grdtors llnnss to nn trd dts n dult

le QF eterminnts of the ost of urreny rises

(pndnt rl s th output lossrsultn rom urrny rssA

IWUQ IWWU IVVHIWWU

rl gont tEsttst gont tEsttst

gonstnt RFVP IFQU TFUR PFRUv o wP or rsrs HFHS HFPV HFIQ IFPIv o urrnt ount to q HFSU PFIH HFIS HFUIv o ornmnt surplus to q HFHT HFIW HFHS HFIWv o nlton HFHH HFPR HFHH HFPHv o q pr pt HFHH HFSS HFHH IFHIv o ptl ontrols PFUP HFWP IFTV HFUUn rss dummy ISFTW SFPW IIFSQ RFUSumr o osrtons WS ISSsudo P HFHT HFHQ

otesX wultrt ot nlyssD th sttstlly snntly ts shon n oldF ot s pproprt hrdu to th mny zroEoutputEloss osrtonsF lso stmtd ths th toEst kmn produr(rst st prot or hthr rss ourrd nd nludn th nrs wlls to n th sondEst otor th ost o th rssAF n no s s th wlls to ont snn nd othr summry sttstsnr sustd tht sltty s srF


TV wgeiv f F


18/31

tms my lso h n nhnd y th knold tht th rsours thy prodd

r lon nto ornExhnEnrtn ttsF fy ontrstD muh postEIWUP

lndn s pulEtoEpul or prtEtoEpul nd lss onsstntly xport lnkdF

eddtonl xplntons or th rlr lk o suddn stops nlud th dhrn tostl montry nd sl pols rurd y th old stndrd nd oloE

nlagommonlth lnks hh mnmzd poltl unrtnty s rud y fordo

et lF (IWWVAF

5.2. Banking crises

or nkn rssD th most mportnt rulrts ound onrn ludty support

or nsolnt nks nd th ntur o th xhn rt rmF foth sn IWUP nd n

th ntrr yrsD nkn rss r mor ostly hn opnEndd ludty support

s prodd (ur S top pnlA nd hn th xhn rt s pd (ur S

ottom pnlAF hr r o ours no nkn rss to nlys undr frtton oodsD

nd th prEIWIQ prod looks lk undmntlly drnt nmlF foth ts r

roust hn stmt ot utons or th ost o nkn rssD nludn th

ddtonl dtrmnnts o nkn rss dsrd oD or th ntr IPH yrs s

ll s th postEIWUP prod (s ppndx loAF

hy opnEndd ludty support or nsolnt nks should nrs th ost o rss

s no mystryF ul lons to nks tht r not ondtond on rstruturn nd rEptlzton prmt nsolnt nsttutons to ml or rsurrtonF uh lons lso

ltt th ontnud lo o nnn to lossEmkn orrorsD nd llo onrs nd

mnrs to n n lootn (ekrlo nd omrD IWWQAF h rol o ths prrs

nnts s dnt n th IWWUV esn rssD nd splly n ndonsD hrD

ordn to ornmnt udtsD n stmtd 6IT llon o ludty support (PR7 o

qA ssud to dstrssd nnl nsttutons dspprdF h esn rss s lso

rph rmndr o ho pd rts n prod n mplt urnt nst

xhn rskD thry nourn th umulton o unhdd orn xposursD

hh nrsd nnl dstrss hn th dnoumnt oms (mor on ths loAF

h esn rssD horD s mrly th ltst nstn o th oprton o ths

prrs dynmsF story prods mny xmplsF e lss s s th iuropn

nkn rss o th rly IWQHsF hrD th eustrn nd qrmn ornmnts

nourd domst nks to prod muhEndd ndustrl poly lons to

mttld ut poltlly porul ndustrl rmsD n rturn or hh thy rd

mplt urnts o ornmnt supportF orn nstorsD rssurd y ths

promss o support nd undr th mprsson tht thy r nsurd nst urrny

rsk y th ornmnts poly o pn th xhn rtD r mor thn lln toprod th qrmn nd eustrn nkn systms th shortEtrm rdtsF hn t s

rld n th IWQI grdtnstlt rss tht ths lons hd on dD xpttons tht

th ornmnt ould ord to ntrn st dout or th stlty o th

urrnyF es th shortEtrm mony ttmptd to lD th xhn rt m undr

egev gi TW


19/31

prssur nd th ntr rrnmnt prdtly m to rF h nd to dnd th

urrny pD tothr th nstor douts out th rdlty o thr ommtmnt to

do soD thn prntd th uthorts rom lorn ntrst rts or dsountn rly on

hl o n solnt nksF h rsult s lrEsl ptl lhtD orn ol

ntrnton to support th nkn systm nd th mposton o xhn ontrolsDonsdrly mor dronn thn rnt wlysn ontrolsD to prnt th ollps o

th urrnyF

hl ths rtd r o ntrr hstory susts tht thr s nothn n

undr th sunD th top pnl o ur S susts tht prEIWIQ rss rsoluton s

0

5

10

15

20

25

Lossas%o

fGDP

18801913 19191939 19451971 19731997

(21 countries)

19731997

(56 countries)

with liquidity support without liquidity support

0

2

4

6

810

12

14

16

18

Lossas%ofGDP

18801913 19191939 19451971 19731997

(21 countries)

19731997

(56 countries)

with peg without peg

pigure SF verge ost of nking risesD liquidity suort nd urreny egs


UH wgeiv f F


20/31

drntF hnD ludty supportD nythnD s prt o th soluton rthr thn prt o

th prolmD ts mor lmtd nd judous proson rltn th mor lmtd poltl

prssurs to prod tF mlrlyD pd xhn rts r not lrly ssotd th

mor srous nkn rssY nythnD th oppost s truD rltn th rtrrdlty nd durlty o th p nd th lssr xtnt o shortEtrm ptl losF

es rnt llustrton o ths pontsD onsdr no th IWWU h rssF

5.3. Thailand as a case in point

hlnds rss hd oth urrny nd nkn lmnts nd h o th ky

rltonshps n our dt pd xhn rtsD lr urrnt ount dtsD nd

ludty support or nsolnt ntrmdrs plyd mportnt rolsF fy IWWT

hlnds urrnt ount dt rhd V7 o qF y ptl nlos nd

rdt oom hnnlld sustntl nstmnt nto rl proprtyD rtn n sstEpr

ulF hn th ul urstD numr o lhtly rultd nn ompns tht

r hly nold n rl stt mmdtly nountrd dultsF ntlly th

ornmnt odd knoldn th prolm y xtndn mss ludty to ths

nn ompns (n th mount o IH7 o qAF fy mdEIWWUD horD th mnst

nsolny o ths nsttutons omplld uthorts to los ll ut to o th ntrnd

onsF eddtonl lo ostD ornmntEsuppld ludtyD hh s prodd thout

ntrnn n ths ompns oprtonD only ddd to th supply o unds n thmrkt th hh to ttk th pF t s not surprsn tht ths s th momnt t

hh th prpton tht th xhn rt s mslnd n to tk holdF elrdy

t th nnn o IWWUD totl prt ptl los strtd to tpr oD or turnn

nto mss outlos hn th rss rokF h ptl outlo dttd hu sns n

th urrnt ountF gurrnt ount surpluss r hd prmrly throuh mport

omprsson nd rdutons n nom rthr thn throuh ddtonl xportsF h

onsun s mss rssonF

hlnds rss lso llustrts th rol o pd xhn rt n sttn th st

or th nnl rssF ht th nomnl lu o th ht dd not hn or tn yrs

surly nlund mrkt prtpnts prptons o urrny rskF wnhlD tht

montry poly tht hld ntrst rts o ntrntonl lls rtd nnts or

rsdnts to und thmsls oshorD nrsn thr xposur to urrny nd ludty

rskF hs unhdd orn xposurs onrontd th uthorts th dlmmF

ello th urrny to lot nd dm th hlth o nkn stor ndrtly xposd

to urrny rskD or dnd th p t ll ostsD nludn y holdn up ntrst rts nd

ttn orn urrny rsrs orrdF n th ndD thy hd no ho ut to llo th

xhn rt to lotD hn dpltd thr orn xhn rsrs nd nurrd lr ontnnt llty s rsult o thr orts to prop up th nnl systmF

fut ths mo to rtr xhn rt lxlty m too ltF e mor lxl

xhn rtD hd t n doptd rlrD ould h odd th mprsson o n

mplt xhn rt urnt nd nourd h rsdnts to mor rully ssss

egev gi UI


21/31

orn urrny rskF t lso ould h llod th ntrl nk to rsort to lor

ntrst rts hn th onomy strtd to sloD sn th prssur on nnl

nsttutons ln shtsF

glosly rltd to ths prolm r dstortons on th nnl sd tht rtdrtl nnts or shortEtrm oshor undnF romnnt mon ths s th

stlshmnt o th fnkok ntrntonl fnkn lty (ffAD n oshor nnl

mrkt tht njoyd tx nd rultory dnts md t ostrn th dlopmnt

o fnkok s ronl nnl ntrF nlk othr dpostEtyp nstrumntsD shortE

trm ff montry nstrumnts (undr IP months to mturtyA r not sujt to th

usul sh rsr rurmntsF hs tx nd rsr trtmnt o ff nsttutons

td lk ghln holdnEprod txs n rrsD nourn rthr thn dtrrn

shortEtrm ptl nlosF n n ort to strlz th rsultn nlos nd to urtl

rdt xpnsonD th ornmnt thtnd montry polyD hh only nourd

urthr nlos y nrsn th drntl tn orn nd domst rts nd

urthr nourn oshor shortEtrm undnF

husD hlnd mnstd h o th prolms hhlhtd y our hstorl nlyssX

th thrt to nknEsystm stlty posd y th tl omnton o n opn ptl

ountD th mplt nsurn nst xhn rsk onrrd y n ex nte rdl

urrny p nd opnEndd ludty supportD plus th thrt to urrny stlty

posd y th omnton o lr urrnt ount dt nd pols nourn

shortEtrm orron y nks nd orportsF ur nlyss susts thtD hd thyknon thr hstory ttrD ths dnrs ould h n mor pprnt to osrrs

or th tF

6. SUMMARY AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

t ll om s no surprs tht on onluson o ths ppr s tht th rss prolm s

not nF fnkn rssD urrny rss nd tn rss r hrdy prnnlsY or th

lst IHH yrsD rss h n ollod y donturns lstn on r PQ yrs nd

ostn S IH7 o qF hy r dnt undr d rty o montry nd

rultory rmsF

htD thnD s drnt out th lst urtr o th tntth nturyc h oous

nsr s th rtr runy o rssF n IWUQ rss runy hs n doul

tht o th frtton oods nd lssl old stndrd prods nd mthd only y th

rssErddn IWPHs nd IWQHsF story thus onrms tht thr s somthn drnt

nd dsturn out our F

fyond thsD th domnnt mprsson sD to ho qoodhrt nd lry (IWWWAD plus

hngeD plus est l meme hoseF grss lnth hs rmnd onstntF utput losss hhnd lttlF grss my h ron mor runt ut thy h not lso ron mor

srF

en mportnt ulton hs to do th mxF h ron prln o tn rss

s snnt drn tn th ourthEurtr o th tntth ntury omprd

UP wgeiv f F


22/31

to ht m orF n rss h lys n mor dsrupt thn nkn nd

urrny rssD nd thr ndn hs n rtr n th lst urtr ntury thn n

ny prod othr thn th dsstrous prsson yrsF o th xtnt tht tn rss

m mor runt n th lst PS yrsD th ost o rndomly sltd rss srtrD nd th rsumpton o roth took lonrF hs tnErss prolm hs ttrtd

onsdrl ttnton rom rnt nsttors (FFD mnsky nd nhrtD IWWVAY

our ndns sust tht thr proupton s ully justdF

hr s y no lr ltrtur on th uss o rssD nd h don lttl mor

thn onrm tht ts mn ndns xtnd to rlr prodsF ht s n s our dn

rrdn th mpltons or th ost o rss o th xhn rt rmD th urrnt

ount nd ludty supportF nd tht nkn rss r mor ostly n th

prsn o pd rtsF l ssurns o xhn rt stlty nour th

umulton o unhdd xposursY s notd oD ths s lsson o th IWPHs s ll

s th IWWHsF wororD rstrt xhn rt ommtmnts lmt th lty o th

uthorts to mplmnt mor ommodt montry poly n th nt o

nt shoksD n plusly mkn th rss orsF

6.1. Policy implications

h poly mpltons ollo drtlyF hr s n rumnt or lxl xhn rtss n ex nte msur to mnmz th ost o nkn rssF hs s mportnt us

th pont s ontstdD th som uthors run tht lotn rts rthr thn ps

hhtn nnl rlty y dsourn nnl dpnn nd hndrn th

dlopmnt o th pty to orro rod t lon mturts n ons on urrnyF

fy mpltonD lots rthr thn ps should ssotd th ostly rssF hs s not

ht ndF

enothr ky mplton s tht ho th uthorts support th nkn systm s

mportntF h hstorl rord shos tht unondtonl support or unsound

ntrmdrs mks rss ors y lttn lootn nd mln or rsurrtonF

hl thr r thortl rumnts tht ut oth ysD th dn shos tht hl

prompt pul ntrnton n ll dstrssd nnl nsttutons lmts th mroE

onom ostsD tn to ntrn untl tr th rss hs pssd rsks thron ood

mony tr dF

n trms o th srty o urrny rssD ht mttrs most s ho r out on lm

th uthorts prmt th onomy to rl n th prErss prodF h dr th

urrnt ount dt nd th hr th rln on shortEtrm orron to nn

sD th mor dsrupt th dslotons hn nlos dry up nd th mor dult thnssry djustmntsF for th esn rssD t s shonl to dny th mportn

o urrnt ount dts nd thr nnn s sours o ulnrltyF ur ndns

sust tht th pundts ould not h n so uk to dsmss thm hd thy knon

thr hstoryF

egev gi UQ


23/31

t ollos tht mrn mrkts ulnrl to suddn shts n ptl los hh n

prt mns ll mrn mrkts should ormult thr montryD sl nd

xhn rt pols th n y tord lmtn urrnt ount dts nd mnn

thr nnnF hy should sur tht tx pols nd rsr rurmnts do notrtlly nour msmths o lndn nd orron mturtsF hy should

strnthn mrkt dspln so tht nks nd orportons r omplld to mn

thr xposurs prudntlyD nd thy should uprd th prudntl suprson o nks

nd surts mrkts to ompnst or th ndus o mrkt dspln nd or

th morl hzrd rtd y th sty ntF end hr tm s rurd to rs

suprson nd rulton to orldElss llsD thy my nt to ontmplt ghlnE

styl holdn prod txs on nrd orn nstmnt s ntrm msursD to urthr

prott nst dstortons ldn to xss nd thror dnrous mturty

msmthsF h s or ths txsD n ths ontxtD s prsly tht thy n usd to

lnthn th mturty strutur o th orn dt nd to ost th s tord xss

shortEtrm xposurs stmmn rom sty nt nd k prudntl suprsonFS

et th sm tmD our nlyss lnds lttl support to th tht ptl ontrols

prod ornmnts nd nstors th protton nst urrny rssF o th

ontrryD nd positive ssoton o urrny rss th ontrolsD sustn tht

ornmnts njoyn thr shltr otn suum to th tmptton to run rskr

pols nd tht th mrkts tk thr prsn s n unourl snl o ol

rsolF n ordD th morl hzrd du to ontrols s srF orD thr s negtivessoton tn ptl ontrols nd nkn rssD s n opn ptl ount

ltts th orts o mrkt prtpnts shltrd y sty nt to lr up thr tsF

enD th oous ntrprtton s n trms o morl hzrdF hr s htd dt

or hthr th strss ld y dm nd ol ommnttors on morl hzrd hs

n ordrnF ur onluson s tht t hs notF worl hzrd hs lon n th usY t

should tkn srouslyF

fut nothn hr supports th noton tht ountrs should lrlz t llF h

hstorl dnD rom th rnt esn rss nd lshrD undrsors tht

ountrs nd to utous out ho thy opn thr ptl ountsF oo mny

esn ornmnts lrlzd shortEtrm nlos rstD nourn th umulton o

orn xposurs nd rndrn th onomy susptl to suddn hns n nstor

sntmntF hr xprn undrsors th mportn o lrlzn n ys tht do

not nour nks nd orports to umult hu mturty msmthsF wor

nrllyD ptl ount opnn should rully sund th othr poly

rormsF t should ompnd y msurs to lmt ol sty ntsD to mpro

S ihnrn nd wuss (IWWVA or urthr dlopmnt o ths rommndtonF hr s n normous dt or th

tnss o ths txsF hl som rts ru tht thy r ttd y sonD othrs pont to th lk o dn tht

thy lmt th orll ll o orn orronF h sond ojton n dsmssd on th rounds tht th rtonl s not

to lmt th orll ll o orron ut to ltr ts mturty struturD nd on th mturty ront th dn s ompllnF es

on rul rnt study ( qroro et lFD PHHHA puts tsD th mor prsstnt nd snnt t s on th omposton o th

nlosD tltn omposton tords lonr mturtyF es or th rst ojtonD t s mportnt to rll tht suh msurD to

tly lnthn th mturty strutur o th dtD nd not son rF

UR wgeiv f F


24/31

dslosurD nd to strnthn th suprsory nd rultory rmork undr hh

nnl nsttutons oprt so tht nnl nsttutons h stronr nnts to

onsdr th onsuns o thr tonsF es prt o thsD ntons should od tx

nnts tht nour xss rln on shortEtrm oltonsD s n hlnd nth mdEIWWHsD nd nstd dsn tx pols to mnmz thos rsksF wor lxl

xhn rts n lso ply rol y orn nnl nd nonEnnl orportons to

onsdr th rsks o shortEtrm orn xposurs on dly ssF

nllyD our rsults sust tht t s rtlly mportnt or th uthorts to oprt

thr lndrEoElstErsort lty so tht ludty support s only prodd to solnt

nsttutons or lmtd prods t pnlty rts nst olltrlF hs should hlp to

nsur tht t s not usd to support nsolnt nsttutons nd to dly th ronton o

nnl dstrssF

Discussion

Andrew K. RoseUniversity of California, Berkeley

grss h mportnt ts on th onoms (splly o dlopn ountrsAD nd

ornmnts ll nd rs us o thmD so t s srly surprsn tht so muh orkhs n don n th rF t th hu mount o rnt rsrh hs lt us th

rmrkly onrt rsultsF

The crisis crisis

h rss ltrtur s n rssF es prossonD smply do not h ry ood

undrstndn o ht uss rss (splly urrny rssAF r thror unl

to prod polyEmkrs th ood rss prnton thnusD rly rnn systmsD

nd so orthF hory s hd o mprs n ths r o onomsD ut oth r n

trrl shpF d th ths msrl stt o rsD rsrhrs h on to lnths

to rodn th dt smpl n xmndF strtd th nddul ountry s

studs o urrny rssF xt m postEr pnls o ndustrl ountrsF hn

ddd dlopn ountrsF fnkn nd tn rss r ddd to th lst nxtD llon

n mor osrtons to modlldF h lol nd to ths rodnn o th dt

st s dpnn t y on urthr k n tmD nd ths s prsly ht fordo et lF doF

pplud thr orts or to rsonsF rstD should rtnly try to xplot ll

ll dt to try to undrstnd nnl rssF ondD th hstorl dt mustsurly th nl rontrF dont pprly dd to our stok o knold th

ths dtD prhps t ould st olltly took rthrF e rk rom

sttstl nlyss mht dd th prspt nssry to ur our y out o th

urrnt morssF

egev gi US


25/31

h uthors ntrprt thr ndns s syn tht thr s nothn n undr th sunY

lk th poorD rss h lys n th usD nd ll ontnu to th usF hy thn

lm tht th runy o rss hs rsnD tht rss r mor ostly sn th most

dmn typD tn rssD r mor prlntF h xptonl prod s th ntrrprodD hrdly typl xprnF hy do ths sd on hu mount o mprl

orkD spnnn our hstorl prods orn or SH ountrs nd IPH yrs o dtD

dsrtd or thr typs o rssD nd orn th ost (n trms o oron

outputA o rss s ll s thr ndnF

ntrprt thr rsults somht drntlyF uppos r to lm tht th

omplln lsson rom fordo et lFs dt s tht thr s rmrkly lttl to lrnd

rom th pst out nnl rssF ould ths rlly t ross odds th th dtc h

rss runs n ur I hrdly pont to notl trnd n rss ndn (nd

ths mprsson ould strnthnd th som stndrd rrorsAF tto th r

rory tms nd th output losss o l IF n t th htronty n rss mks

ny stron sttmnts out lonEtrm trnds nslF

hr s spl rson to utous o th uthors onlusons o th osts o

rssF hn thnk o th emrn rsson o IWWHID thnk o th qul r

nd th ssotd shok to th pr o olD n unortunt onjunton th tht

montry poly ntndd to lor nltonF mlrlyD rr to th olkr rsson

o th rly IWVHsD th shok o qrmn nton nd ts onsuns or qrmn

ntrst rts nd ts iw prtnrsD to th urstn o th pns sst pr ul nIWVW FFF nd so orthF n h sD thnk o usnss yls s hn uss tht

n usully pont toF fut non o ths struturl ts s ontrolld or n th rrsson

nlyss tht fordo et lF doF ht sD th onomtr rsults rom l P on do not

ontrol or th stndrd dtrmnnts o rssons (montry shoksD th ol prD

produtty tsD nd so orthAF n th lttr r ut plusly orrltd th

rssD on hs to thnk o th pprs ndns on th ost o rss s n prlmnryF

Where do we stand?

gurrnt dt sho us rmrkly lttl out th uss o rss nd thror out

rss prdton nd prntonF h sm s slly tru o prE dtF o th rst

mss or polyEmkrs rom ths ppr s slly ntF smply dont

urrntly h th lty to dtrmn ht uss rssF hs nt onluson

rrs th t host o nt orollrsF nt undrstnd th dtrmnnts o

rssD nt prdt thm th mhnl rly rnn systmsF rntn rss s

tht muh hrdrFn o th rl ontrutons o ths ppr s tht t pushs us y rom tryn to

xpln rss nd tords th study o ht uss rss to mor or lss ostlyF hs s

surly orthhl olD nd pplud t thout rsrtonF in nt prnt

th dssD knon ho to rdu ts mpt s n mportnt ojtF h

UT wgeiv f F


26/31

rorntton o th ltrtur hs only un th ths pprD nd look orrd to mor

ork n th rF

ht do kno out rssc hy r not ll lkF hy nr h nF h

htronous ntur o nnl rss s thr dnn hrtrstF t xplns hy ts so hrd to modl thm mprllyD nd hy n thortl modls sm lys to

ndd ex postto xpln th ltst outrkF hs my old omort ndd or poly

mkrsD ut t lst thy n pprt th opportunty ths rprsnts or rsrhrsF

Panel discussion

h nrl dsusson o th ppr strssd host o sttstl ssusD mny o hhr norportd nto th nl rson o th ppr nd so r not rportd hrF qudo

lln ustond hthr ountn rss s th rht pprohY th mntud o

rssons hs nrsd nd ths should tkn nto ountF ornEtn shk

pontd out tht th stndrd rrors on mny stmtd prmtrs r ry hhF eln

ntrs skd th uthors to pro mor rully tht tn rss our mor runtlyD

ut r ulttly not mor srous othr thn just ddn to th losssF sustd

tht mor rossEston nlyss s nssry to ddrss ths ssuF

wr lndru rud tht th mss ntrr hns mk t dult to look t

th tm trndF trk onohn pontd out tht th osts o rss do not sho up only

n mro dtF or nstnD ptl losss du to d lndn r lso mportntF rry

uzn urthr sustd rsss t on nhourn ountrs mht lso

onsdrd prt o th ostY ths h lt ould n ntrstn nu or utur

rsrhF or nstn th rss n frzl s knon to h td erntn

sustntllyF

rt o th dsusson ousd on th poly mpltons o th mprl nlyssF eln

ntrs pontd out tht t s dult to otn poly onlusonsF n prtulr or th

uston hthr to us xd or lxl xhn rts nd th rol o ptl ontrolsFqors d wnl ddd t to th nlyssF hl ptl ontrols my prnt

rssD th pross o lolzton my orll nl or th ountryF hus poly

rommndton to mpos ontrols my msldnF

n hs rsponsD whl fordo dmttd tht lookn t pttrns n lr dt sts

nors th ork o hstornsF s lso orrd out th rsults on ptl ontrols

nd pontd out tht th ppr s not on lolzton n nrlF gptl ontrols my

hrmul or ountry or othr rsonsF

APPENDIX: ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF CRISIS DETERMINANTS

l eI prsnts th multnoml rrssons or th lklhood o rous knds o rss rrrd

to n ton RF h rsults onrm tht th ts o ptl ontrols r sttstlly snnt t

stndrd ondn llsD FFD tht ptl ontrols mk nkn rss lss runt ut urrny

egev gi UU


27/31

rss mor runtF elsoD ld tst or drns tn th ull smpl nd IWUQWU s

unl to rjt th null tht th dtrmnnts o rss r no drnt tody thn or th ntr

hstorl spF

h onluson tht nkn rss r lss lkly n th prsn o ptl ontrols s rnord

nsor s ntrton trms tn rss ndtors nd dummy rls or th postEIWUQ prod

n ntr nsnntlyD nddully nd s roupD nd hn non o th onts on th

othr rls hn ddd to th sptonF hl th sm pttrn s dnt hn

stmt sprt uton on th dt or th postEIWUQ suEprod lonD th ont on thptlEontrols rl dos not pproh sttstl snn t stndrd ondn llsF

h sm rsult hs n rportd prouslyD or drnt ountry dt stD y ihnrn nd

ertt (PHHHAF

ot tht n l eID us mor lmtd lst o xplntory rls thn n th rstEst

o th toEstp produr dsrd n ton QFIF (pllyD drop th l o th pD th

onton rlD nd th urrnt ountAF wor lort sptons yld ssntlly th

sm rsultsF pllyD t rmns tru tht oth nkn nd urrny rss r snntly

mor lkly n loEnom ountrs hr nnl systms r undrdlopdD tht urrny

rss r lss lkly hr ld rsrs r lr (rlt to wPA nd th udt surplus s lrFendD mportntlyD our rsults rrdn ptl ontrols rmn unhndF

Econometric analysis of banking crisis severity

l eP prsnts th multrl ot nlyss rrrd to n ton SFP tht supports th

ssrton tht hn t oms to nkn rss srtyD th most mportnt rulrts onrn

ludty support or nsolnt nks nd th ntur o th xhn rt rmF h snn

o th xhn rt s snst to th nluson o our msur o nnl strutur nd to

hthr or not nlud dummy rl or hthr th nkn rss n uston s

ompnd y urrny rss (tht sD hthr nlud tn rss dummyAF hs s not

surprsnD sn kno tht ntrl nks hos urrns r smultnously undr ttk

h lss ly or ntrnn to stlz thr nkn systmsF emon th poly rls

ntndd to ltt rss rsolutonD ptl support nd unlmtd urnt do not pro to

le IF ultinomil logit nlysis of determinnts of risesD IVVH IWWU

pndnt rl s typo rss

n rss fnkn rss gurrny rss

rl gont zEsttst gont zEsttst gont zEsttst

gonstnt QFIW UFVW PFQT SFPQ QFII IPFPSv o nlton HFHI QFHP HFHP IFHI HFHI IFTIv o ptl ontrols HFHS HFIR HFWU PFIH HFSQ PFSPv o wP to rsrs HFHP IFHQ HFHP HFUI HFHP PFTPv o q pr pt HFHI IFPR HFHI PFWP HFHI IFQSv o q roth HFHI HFQT HFHP HFST HFHI HFRHv o qornmnt surplus HFHQ HFVI HFHQ HFTI HFHR PFHP

otesX intrs n old r snntly drnt thn zro t th WS7 ondn llsF h numr oosrtons s IUPP nd th P s HFHRF


UV wgeiv f F


28/31

le PF eterminnts of the ost of nking rises

pndnt rl s th output loss rsultn rom nkn rss

gont tEsttst gont tEsttst gont

IWUQIWWUgonstnt RFQW IFHI SFSW IFII VFRSvudty support UFPS PFHS WFWP PFRT IIFWT gptl support RFVP IFPT SFQV IFPH IHFQH qurnt RFWT IFRR QFIR HFUW TFTIv o p PFTQ HFTS RFQI HFWP VFVV v o ptl ontrols RFVI IFHU IFQW HFPU HFQQ n rss dummy IIFUI QFPQv nnl ntrmdton ndx RFIW umr o osrtons PW PW PI

sudo P

HFHW HFHR HFHVIVVHIWWUgonstnt RFHP IFRP RFUP IFTV WFSS vudty support SFWV IFWW TFWI PFQR SFTQ gptl support PFPH HFTU PFRH HFUP HFPH qurnt HFTU HFPP HFUH HFPQ HFQSv o p HFIQ HFHS HFPW HFII HFUV v o ptl ontrols IFST HFSS PFRR HFVU PFIU n rss dummy QFTH IFPUv nnl ntrmdton ndx IFTQumr o osrtons UT UT SWsudo P HFHP HFHP HFHI

otesX wultrl ot nlyssD th sttstlly snntly ts shon n oldF



29/31

snntD FFD nlun th onom osts o nkn rss on y or nothrF hs rsults

onrm thos o onohn nd lnl (PHHHA or th modrn prodF h nnl strutur

rl (ully ntrtdD mxd or sprtA lso dos not ppr to h systmtlly nlund

th osts o nkn rssF

REFERENCES

ekrloD qF nd F omr (IWWQAF vootnX th onom undrorld o nkrupty or protDrookings pers on onomi tivity PF

elD FD vF rnndz nd F lnl (IWWWAF nnl lrlston nd th ptl ountXhlndD IWVVWUD oly srh orkn pr oF PIVVD h orld fnkF

flkD F nd F qordon (IWVWAF istmton o prr qX mthodoloy nd n dnDournl of olitil onomy WUF

frmnD FwFD wF fordo nd vF onun (IWWVAF storl dn on usnss ylsX thntrntonl xprnD n F uhrr nd F huh (dsFAD eyond hoksX ht uses usinessylesc drl sr fnk o foston gonrn rodnsD gonrn rs noF RPDdrl sr fnk o fostonF

frnnkD fF nd F ms (IWWIAF h old stndrdD dlton nd nnl rss n th qrtprssonX n ntrntonl omprsonD n FqF urd (dFAD innil rkets nd innilrisesD nrsty o gho rssD ghoF

frtolnD vF nd eF rzn (IWWUAF gptl ount lrlston s snlD merin onomieview VUF

(IWWUAF hn lrl pols rlt shoksD ht do lrncD ournl of nterntionlonomis RPF

floomldD eFF (IWTVAF ttrns o lututon n ntrntonl nn or IWIRD rinetontudies in nterntionl inne noF PID ntrntonl nn tonD prtmnt o ionomsDrnton nrstyF

fordoD wF (PHHHAF fnkn rss nd nkn rss mnmnt n hstorl prsptDunpulshd mnusrptD utrs nrstyF

fordoD wF nd fF ihnrn (IWWVAF h rs nd ll o rrous rlD fi orknpr noF TRQTF

(IWWWAF s our urrnt ntrntonl nnl nronmnt unusully rss proncD n Fqrun nd vF qor (dsFAD pitl lows nd the nterntionl innil ystemD sr fnk oeustrlD ydnyF

fordoD wFD fF ihnrn nd F rn (IWWWAF s lolston tody rlly drnt romlolston hundrd yrs ocD rookings rde oliy orum IWWWF

fordoD wFD fF ihnrn nd F m (IWWVAF s thr rlly n rlr prod o ntrntonlnnl ntrton omprl to todycD n he mplitions of lolistion of orld pitlrketsD fnk o orD oulF

fordoD wF nd vF onun (IWWTAF wontry rmsD nlton nd montry rormD n F znd F lupll (dsFAD nfltionD nstitutions nd nformtionX ssys in onor of xel eijonhufvudDwmllnD vondonF

(PHHHAF e rturn to th onrtlty prnplc wontry nd sl rms n hstorlprsptD n eF vjonhuud (dFAD onetry heory s sis for onetry oliyD wmllnDvondon (orthomnAF

fordoD wF nd F ydlnd (IWWSAF h old stndrd s rulX n ssy n xplortonDxplortions in onomi istory QPF

fordoD wF nd eF hrtz (IWWTAF h oprton o th sp stndrdX dn or or nd

prphrl ountrsD IVVHIWWHD n F fr d wdoD fF ihnrn nd F s (dsFADurreny onvertiilityX he old tndrd nd eyondD outldD vondonFgloD qFeF nd gFwF nhrt (IWWWAF hn ptl nlos om to suddn stopX

onsuns nd poly optonsD unpulshd mnusrptD nrsty o wrylndFgproD qFD r nd F lnl (IWWTAF fnk nsolnsX rossEountry xprnD oly

srh orkn pr ITPHD h orld fnkD shntonD gF

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glssnsD F nd F lnl (PHHHAF sl rsks o th nkn systmX pprohs to msurnnd mnn ontnnt ornmnt llts n th nkn storD n F lko frxDeF hk nd F n jnrn (dsFAD overnment ontingent iilities nd isl ulnerilityDxord nrsty rss (orthomnAF

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fi orkn pr oF UTRSD tonl furu o ionom srhD gmrdD weFihnrnD fF (IWWRAF story o th ntrntonl montry systmX mpltons or rsrh n

ntrntonl mroonoms nd nnD n F n dr lo (dFAD he ndook of nterntionlroeonomisD flkllD vondonF

(IWWTAF lolising pitlX istory of the nterntionl onetry ystemD rnton nrstyrssD rntonF

ihnrnD fF nd gF ertt (PHHHAF fnkn rss n mrn mrktsX prsumptons nddnD unpulshd mnusrptD nrsty o glornD frklyF

ihnrnD fF nd wF wuss (IWWVAF gptl ount lrlztonX thortl nd prtlsptsD w sonl pr oF IUPD ntrntonl wontry undD shnton gF

ihnrnD fFD eF os nd gF yplosz (IWWSAF ixhn mrkt myhmX th ntdnts ndtrmth o spult ttksD onomi oliy PIF

(IWWTAF pult ttks on pd xhn rtsX n mprl xplorton th splrrn to th iuropn wontry ystmD n wF gnzonrD F ithr nd F qrll (dsFADhe ew rnstlnti onomyD gmrd nrsty rssD orkF

(IWWTAF gontous urrny rssX rst tstsD n F endrson nd F won (dsFADinnil ierlistion nd roeonomi oliyD flkllD xordaifD vondonF

sD F (IWQHAF uropeD the orlds nkerD l nrsty rssD nFshloD eF (IWVTAF vssons rom th pstX ptl mrkts durn th IWth ntury nd th ntrr

prodD n wF hlr (dFAD he olitis of nterntionl etD gornll nrsty rssD thF

urmnD F nd F tltz (IWWVAF ionom rssX dn nd nshts rom ist esD rookingspers on onomi tivity PFqnD wF nd F usmnn (IWWTAF h roots o nkn rssX th mroonom ontxtD n

F usmnn nd vF ojsEurz (dsFAD nking rises in tin meriD h ohns opknsnrsty rssD fltmorF

qrtonD vF nd F opr (IWWUAF e montry modl o xhn mrkt prssur ppld topostr gndn xprnD merin onomi eview TUF

qlkD F nd wF uthnson (PHHHAF toppn hot mony or snln d polyc gptlontrols nd th onst o urrny rssD unpulshd mnusrptD drl sr fnk o nrnso nd g nt gruzF

qoddD F (PHHHAF h qrmn tn rss o IWQID unpulshd mnusrptD nrsty ownnhmF

qoldstnD wF (IWWVAF he sin innil risisD nsttut or ntrntonl ionomsD shntonD gFqoldstnD wFD qF mnsky nd gF nhrt (PHHHAF ssessing innil ulnerilityX n rly rningystem for merging rketsD nsttut or ntrntonl ionomsD shntonD gF

qoodhrtD gF nd nd FFF vry (IWWWAF nnl rssX plus hnD plus st l mmhosD vi nnl wrkts qroup pl pr oF IHVF

qortonD qF (IWVVAF fnkn pns nd usnss ylsD xford onomi pers RHFqrnspnD eF (PHHHAF qlolstonD sph to th USth nnrsry onrn o th fnk o

wxoD IR omrD FoFrFdFusaorddosasphsaPHHHFquptD FD F wshr nd F hy (PHHHAF utput rspons durn urrny rssD unpulshd

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xhn rt rmD unpulshd mnusrptD ntrEemrn lopmnt fnkFonohnD F nd F lnl (PHHHAF gontrolln th sl ost o nkn rssD oly

srh orkn pr oF PRRID h orld fnkD shntonD gFntrntonl wontry und (IWWVAF orld onomi utlook (wyAD wD shntonD gFmsD F (IWVTAF he ermn lumpD glrndon rssD xordFnnD F (IWWUAF er urrny rss slEulllnc e tstD ournl of nterntionl onomis RQF

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mnskyD qF nd gF nhrt (IWWVAF h tn rssX th uss o nkn nd lnEoEpymnts prolmsD merin onomi eview VWF

vlnD FeF (PHHHAF o dlu or not to dluc h poltl onomy o xhn rtpolyD unpulshd mnusrptD nrsty o golordo t fouldr (torAF

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emrn rsus ist esD unpulshd mnusrptD tnord nrstyFwlssErrttD qFwF nd eF zn (IWWVAF gurrnt ount rrsls nd urrny rssX

mprl rulrtsD fi orkn pr noF TTPH (unAFwuldrD gF nd wF oh (PHHHAF h soundnss o stmts o output losss n urrny rssD

unpulshd mnusrptD wFomrD gF (IWVWAF rr usnss yls ronsdrdX n stmts o ross ntonl produt

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F ylor nd wF oodord (dsFAD ndook of roeonomisD orth ollndD emstrdmFylorD eF (IWWTAF ntrntonl ptl molty n hstoryX th snEnstmnt rltonshpD

fi orkn pr noF SURQFrnD F (IWTRAF h oluton o th ntrntonl montry systmX hstorl rpprsl nd

utur prsptsD rineton tudies in nterntionl inne noF IPD ntrntonl nn tonDprtmnt o ionomsD rnton nrstyF

nD F (IWWPAF er orld nnl mrkt mor opnc soD hy nd th ht tscD n Ffnur nd FfF hor (dsFAD innil penness nd tionl utonomyD glrndon rssD xordF

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TEMA 1 Lectura Michael Bordoi

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