Telecom Industry: History of the Future

– RBOCs are big early winners gaining upto 20% market share in long distance while losing only 3-5% share in the local telephone.

– AT&T is the biggest loser

– Companies invest heavily in R&D and infrastructure

0-2 years

Telecom Industry: History of the Future

– RBOCs and AT&T lose substantial market share in their core business (15%-25%),

– AT&T makes decisive inroads in local telephone, gain up to 30% local telephone marketshare in key metropolitan areas

– Online service demand explodes almost doubling each year

– RBOCs customer loyalty withers away in 24-30 months

– CAPs (competitive access provider) and cable companies become increasingly competitive due to unbundling products

– AT&T and MCI skim the cream with one-stop shopping accounting for up to 50% of the profits

3-5 years

Telecom Industry: History of the Future

• Size of the US market $1.3 trillion and $3.5 trillion worldwide

• AT&T and MCI sets new rules of the game• Online service demands open up many foreign markets• Mergers and acquisitions continue to shape the Industry• GM controls 30% of wireless communications and upto

15% of semi-conductor markets• AT&T and Microsoft join hands and emerge as biggest

winners collecting tax on every bit transmitted around the world

5 - 7 years