Tele2 AB Q1 2011 presentation
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Transcript of Tele2 AB Q1 2011 presentation
FIRST QUARTER 2011
April 19, 2011
2010-10-20 2
Agenda
About Q1 2011
Financial review
Guidance and Concluding remarks
2010-10-20 3
Highlights Q1
• Group
– Total customer base amounting to more than 31 million customers. Net
customer intake for the group 399,000
– Net sales grew by 0.5 percent. Currency-adjusted net sales grew by 7
percent, driven by mobile sales
– EBITDA grew by 4 percent. Currency-adjusted EBITDA grew by 11
percent. EBITDA margin amounted to 26 (25) percent
• Russia
• Nordic
• Central Europe & Eurasia
• Western Europe
2010-10-20 4
Highlights Tele2 Russia
• 547,000 (949,000) new
customers in Q1 2011
• Net sales grew by 17
percent. Currency-
adjusted net sales grew
by 27 percent
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
CUSTOMER BASE MILLIONS
31%
32%
33%
34%
35%
36%
37%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
EBITDA 12'M ROLLING SEK MILLION / PERCENT
EBITDA 12'M rolling EBITDA-margin 12'M rolling
2010-10-20 5
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
MOU AND ARPU MINUTES
MoU (left-hand side) RUB (right-hand side)
Mobile market overview
Source: AC&M – 4Q10 Report, Analysis Mayson– Voice Quarterly Metrics, Dec 2010 *The dynamics is caused by the B2B segment
growth
93,9%
92,8% 92,5%
89,6% 89,8%
87%
90%
93%
96%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
PREPAID SHARE * PERCENT
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Jan 11 Feb 11
NET ADDITIONS SHARE OF ADDS (%)
MTS Vimpelcom MegaFon Tele2
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
QUARTERLY CHURN TELE2 PERCENT
RUB
2010-10-20 6
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
MOBILE MARKET SHARES PERCENT OF ACTIVE SUBSCRIBERS
Mobile TeleSystems VimpelCom MegaFon Tele 2
Mobile market overview
Source: AC&M Consulting – 4Q10 Report, Mayson Analysis – Voice Quarterly Metrics, Dec 2010
Average TELE2 share (all Russia) – 8.4%
Average TELE2 share (old regions) – 39% *
Average TELE2 share (new regions) – 16% *
Average TELE2 share (total 37) – 29% *
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2006 2007 2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
MOBILE MARKET SHARES PERCENT OF RETAIL REVENUES
Mobile TeleSystems VimpelCom MegaFon Tele 2
* T2 Initial Measurement 2011
2010-10-20 7
Mobile data market
* Tele2 regions internal, BIG 3 – J’son & Partners, 2011, otherwise AC&M, 2010
9%
7%
11%
8%
DATA REVENUE as of 4Q10 SHARE OF TOTAL REVENUE (FEDERAL)
MTS Vimpelcom MegaFon Tele2
• EDGE enabled mobile network
• Great price and smart packaging
• Large difference between major cities vs. rural areas
28%
34%
21%
17%
BIG4 DATA REVENUE BREAKDOWN PERCENT, 4Q10 (TELE2 REGIONS)
MTS
Megafon
Vimpelcom
Tele2
2010-10-20 8
Tele2’s regional expansion opportunities
COVERAGE MAP
Population (Million)
Total Market 142
New licences 11.5
Tele2 61
Won licences 1
Combined 62
Moscow
The results of the first GSM tender: Tele2 got licences in all 4 new regions in the
first round
2010-10-20 9
Highlights Tele2 Sweden
• Increased mobile revenue growth of 17 percent
• 45,000 (29,000) postpaid customers added
• Mobile EBITDA margin 30 (35) percent, due to a larger
gross intake of smartphone customers and increased
costs to JVs
• 4G launched in eight major cities
0,0%
5,0%
10,0%
15,0%
20,0%
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
NET SALES SEK MILLION / PERCENT
Mobile net sales Mobile YoY net sales growth
2010-10-20 10
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
FIXED VS. MOBILE PERSPECTIVE SWE TELECOM REVENUES (%)
Fixed Mobile
Swedish telecom market trends
Sources: Parella Weinberg Partners , Analysys Mason, PTS
0
20 000
40 000
60 000
80 000
100 000
120 000
140 000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MOBILE DATA TB USAGE (RESIDENTIAL) TERABYTE
Mobile data is increasing,
driven by smartphones and
mobile broadband
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
MOBILE CONNECTIONS SWEDEN PERCENT
2G 3G 4G
2010-10-20 11
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
SMARTPHONES vs. FEATURE PHONES SHARE OF TOTAL MARKET
Smartphones Feature phones
Smartphones change the customers’
behaviour
Sources: Analysys Mason
More than 60 percent of Tele2’s prepaid
customers converting to postpaid
change to a smartphone
The Swedish mobile market Tele2 customers’ demand for data solutions
is increasing rapidly
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
SALES OF DATA PACKAGES
Sources: Internal data
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
Q1-09 Q2-09 Q3-09 Q4-09 Q1-10 Q2-10 Q3-10 Q4-10 Q1-11
POSTPAID RESIDENTIAL WITH CONTRACT PERCENT
400%
2010-10-20 12
Focused activities give results on
postpaid ASPU
• Focused on attracting and retaining the right
customers
• Continued the expansion of Tele2 stores
• Increased sales of data packaging
• Remade B2B product portfolio
• Strengthened switching solution offer
ASPU trend recovered
1 iPhone4 16 GB
2 iPhone4 32 GB
3 Sony Ericsson X10 Mini Pro
4 Sony Ericsson X10
5 HTC Desire
6 ZTE Blade
7 Sony Ericsson X8
8 Sony Ericsson X10 Mini
9 HTC Wildfire
10 HTC Desire HD
Top 10 phone sales in Tele2
Stores (Jan-Mar)
In total, 9 out of 10 sold phones are
smartphones
2010-10-20 13
The 4G roll-out continues
99% coverage
End of 2012
2011 2010
2010-10-20 14
• The Netherlands
- Strengthened the position in the
business segment through the
completion of the BBned acquisition
• Germany
- Continued strong EBITDA contribution
of 33 percent in fixed telephony
• Austria
- Continued good progress in
restructuring program leading to
sequential improvement of EBITDA
contribution
Highlights Tele2 Western Europe
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
EBITDA 12'M ROLLING SEK million
Netherlands Austria Germany
2010-10-20 15
Licence Renewal / Frequency Auction
Au
ctio
n 2
015 A
uctio
ne
d 2
010
Auctio
n e
arly
20
12
2010-10-20 16
Highlights Tele2 Baltic Region
• Stabilizing economy leading to better operational
environment
- Low consumer confidence delaying improved
spend on communication services
• Investment in network capabilities, as demand for
mobile broadband increases
- Tele2 Estonia was awarded 4G licence
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
NET INTAKE THOUSANDS
Estonia Lithuania Latvia
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
EBITDA - CAPEX SEK MILLION
EBITDA CAPEX EBITDA - CAPEX
2010-10-20 17
• Goal to deliver positive free cash flow 2H 2011 on track
• Solid customer intake despite high seasonal churn
• Tele2 launched 21 Mbps in its 3G network
Highlights Tele2 Croatia
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
EBITDA SEK MILLION
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
NET INTAKE THOUSANDS
2010-10-20 18
Highlights Tele2 in Kazakhstan
• Preparing for launch in late April
- Tele2 in Kazakhstan relaxed on commercial activities in Q1 2011, leading to lower net intake
• Mobile network covering almost 70% of the population
- 2G/3G enabled infrastructure
• Focus on widening the distribution network throughout the country
• Interconnect lowered as of 2011 with good support from NRA
2010-10-20 19
Agenda
About Q1 2011
Financial review
Guidance and Concluding remarks
2010-10-20 20
Q1 2011 group results
SEK million Q1 11 Q1 10 Change %
Net Sales 9 573 9 527
EBITDA 2 457 2 358 4%
- EBITDA margin (%) 26% 25%
Depreciation and Joint Ventures -897 -809
- Depreciation of Net sales (%) 9% 8%
One-off items 99 -3
EBIT 1 659 1 546 7%
Normalized EBIT 1 560 1 549
- Normalized EBIT margin (%) 16% 16%
Financial items -62 42
Taxes -371 -339
Net profit/loss 1 226 1 249
Net result, discontinued operations -13 19
Net result total operations 1 213 1 268
Mainly due to spectrum
rebalancing in 900 MHz
band
2010-10-20 21
Currency movements (vs. SEK)
YoY Difference in
YTD Ave FX Rates, 2011 vs. 2010
EUR -11.0%
RUB -8.0%
EUR/EUR pegged and RUB currencies
approximately 2/3 of sales and EBITDA
End of Quarter Spot rate
vs. 31/12-2010
EUR -1%
RUB -1%
2010-10-20 22
Currency adjusted Sales and EBITDA
-500
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
Q1 10 Q1 11
CURRENCY ADJUSTED EBITDA TOTAL, +11 % SEK MILLION
Kazakhstan MA Nordic MA Russia
MA Central Europe MA Western Europe
8%
17%
43%
-6%
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
Q1 10 Q1 11
CURRENCY ADJUSTED SALES, +7% SEK MILLION
Kazakhstan MA Nordic MA Russia
MA Central Europe MA Western Europe
0%
-3%
27%
5%
2010-10-20 23
Taxes
Taxes in income statement Q1 11 Q1 10
Normal -371 -339
One-Off - -
Total -371 -339
Taxes in cash flow Q1 11 Q1 10
Normal -225 -233
Deferred tax assets amounted to SEK 3.1 (3.6) billion
2010-10-20 24
SEK million Q1 11 Q1 10
OPERATING ACTIVITIES
Cash flow from operations, before paid tax 2 589 2 341
Cash flow from operations, paid taxes -225 -233
Changes in working capital -310 183
Cash flow from operating activities 2 054 2 291
INVESTING ACTIVITIES
CAPEX -933 -608
Cash flow after CAPEX 1 121 1 683
Acquisition and sale of shares and participations, net -14 -819
CASH FLOW AFTER INVESTING ACTIVITIES 1 107 864
Cash flow for Q1 2011
Negative change in working capital affected by increased
instalment sales of handsets and some other pre-payments
2010-10-20 25
0,00
0,20
0,40
0,60
0,80
1,00
1,20
1,40
1,60
1,80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
NET DEBT INCL. JV / EBITDA 2010 SEK BILLION / RATIO
Net debt incl. JV Pro forma incl. proposed May dividend Net debt incl. JV / EBITDA 2010
Group financial profile
2010-10-20 26
Bal. sheet consideration / Fin. leverage
Shareholder
remuneration
Cash / Buffer
M&A / New growth
opportunities
When available, invest in value accretive
M&A or new business opportunities
meeting Tele2’s strict financial hurdles
Enhance shareholder value by distributing
recurring cash to shareholders
Retain financial buffer
Prudent assessment based on (a) status of its operations, (b) future strategic opportunities,
(c) competitive landscape and (d) general macro economic status
C
A
S
H
G
E
N
E
R
A
T
I
O
N
2010-10-20 27
Net debt and dividend targets
Shareholder remuneration
“Tele2 will seek to pay a progressive ordinary dividend of no less 50
percent of net income excluding one-off items. Extraordinary dividends
and the authority to purchase Tele2’s own shares will be recommended or
sought when the anticipated total return to shareholders is deemed to be
greater than the achievable returns from the deployment of the capital
within the group's operating segments or the acquisition of assets within
Tele2’s economic requirements.”
Balance sheet
“Tele2 has a target net debt to EBITDA ratio of between 1.25 and 1.75
times over the medium term. The company’s longer term financial
leverage should be in line with the industry and the markets in which it
operates and reflect the status of its operations, future strategic
opportunities and contingent.”
2010-10-20 28
Group EBITDA, Sales and Capex
22%
24%
26%
28%
30%
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
GROUP EBITDA SEK MILLION / PERCENT
Mobile Fixed broadband
Fixed telephony Other
Group EBITDA margin
0
2 000
4 000
6 000
8 000
10 000
12 000
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
GROUP SALES SEK MILLION
Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
GROUP CAPEX SEK MILLION
Mobile Fixed broadband Fixed telephony Other0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
ROCE PERCENT
2010-10-20 29
Group mobile EBITDA
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10 Q4 10 Q1 11
GROUP MOBILE EBITDA SEK MILLION / PERCENT
Mobile EBITDA on own infrastructure Mobile EBITDA (MVNO)
Mobile EBITDA margin on own infrastructure Total mobile EBITDA margin
2010-10-20 30
Sweden mobile revenue explained
1919 129 (+7%)
189 (+10%) 2237 (+17%)
Revenue Q1 10 Underlying mobile Mobile equipment Revenue Q1 11
SWEDEN MOBILE REVENUE WATERFALL SEK MILLION
2010-10-20 31
Sweden mobile EBITDA explained
664
112 22 -101
-28 669
EBITDA Q110
GM1 Other Expansion /Call center
SUNAB/N4M EBITDA Q111
SWEDEN MOBILE EBITDA WATERFALL SEK MILLION
2010-10-20 32
Agenda
About Q1 2011
Financial review
Guidance and Concluding remarks
2010-10-20 33
Tele2’s general group targets
• Best Deal position
• Targeting a long-term
mobile EBITDA margin on own
infrastructure of at least 35 percent
• All operations should have the ambition of
reaching ROCE of at least 20 percent
• The capability to reach a top 2 position, in terms of customer market share, in an individual country or region
2010-10-20 34
Concluding remarks
Russia
• Strong customer intake and EBITDA contribution in market area Russia
Nordic
• Solid mobile revenue growth in market area Nordic
Western Europe
• Further strengthening its position in the consumer and business segments
Central Europe and Eurasia
• Tele2 in Kazakhstan getting ready for commercial launch
2011: Also an investment year
• Russia
• Kazakhstan
• Sweden
- 4G
• Norway
- 3G
2010-10-20 35
Q&A
2010-10-20 36