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Transcript of Tel: (852) 2277 6628 Email:...
WEEKLY HIGHLIGHTS
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PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 # 486
AOT
Technical View
The SET index held its ground throughout last week although it slumped but managed to stand at 1580 points, while Modi. Sto. already entered an oversold territory. So the index could likely be in for a rebound this week. Supports lie at 1565 and 1535 points, while resistances at 1600 and 1650 points.
Stock of The Week
Rebound likely on cards
The S50Z18 is seen to move sideways in tight band between 1,050-1,075 points as trading will be subdued this week due to the absence of foreign trading during the Christmas and New Year holidays. Although institutional investors’ window dressing is likely to lend some support to the market, concerns over a global economic slowdown could be a drag on the Thai stocks. Besides, rollover in futures contracts would add volatility to the market.
Gold prices are expected to take a pause at between US$1,270/oz - US$ 1,250/oz as gold prices tend to be on course for consolidation in the uptrend channel after the markets partly factored in the downward revision of the Fed’s interest rate expectations from three to two times in FY19 and worries about slow growth in US economy. This week, we advise to monitor the US consumer confidence index and PMI as they are projected to be lower than the previous release and thus being positive for gold. However, the likely increase in the US new home sales figures would put pressure on gold.
Sideways with downside bias Thin trading ahead of long holiday: Trading volume are likely to be
lighter than usual as the long New Year holiday is around the corner and volatility is likely to remain high amid concerns over the slower growth of Thai economy and of major economies namely the US and China. The Fed’s consistent interest rate hikes put downward pressure on and prompted some emerging market countries to raise rates to stem the outflows of capital. The BOT recently raised its policy rate by 25 basis points, aiming to build policy space and prevent economic vulnerabilities driven by search-for-yield behavior.
Weak trading catalysts: In our view, although institutional investors’ window dressing is expected to provide a boost to the market, it will not be enough to propel the market higher. We believe there will not be much buying interest from LTFs in the final stretch of the year as most purchases were already made earlier through the year when the SET index declined. There is also a concern over selling pressure in LTFs whose lock-up period will expire in early FY19. With all things considered, we forecast the SET to continue its sideways action with downside bias between 1560 and 1610 points this week.
Strategy Team #487
24 - 28 Dec 2018
WEEKLY STATISTICS 24 - 28 Dec 2018
Strategy Team #487
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PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 # 486
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%In
dia
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Sin
gapo
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Th
aila
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Ch
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Ko
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Mal
aysi
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Ta
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Ph
ilip
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WOW MTD YTD
App
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w-w Asian stock market performances
Performance of major Asian currencies against US dollar
-3.6%
-2.2%
-1.8%
-1.0%
-0.9%
-0.8%
-0.7%
-0.4%
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0.5%
1.3%
-4.0% -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0%
Vietnam
China
Hong kong
Taiwan
Singapore
Thailand
Malaysia
Korea
Indonesia
Philipines
India
WEEKLY STATISTICS 24 - 28 Dec 2018
Strategy Team #487
www.poems.in.th
PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 # 486
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
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3,000
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5,000
15 O
ct 1
8
22 O
ct 1
8
29 O
ct 1
8
5 No
v 18
12 N
ov 1
8
19 N
ov 1
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26 N
ov 1
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3 D
ec 1
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10 D
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17 D
ec 1
8
Thailand Philippines S.Korea Taiwan Vietnam Indonesia India
Unit: Mil US$
Foreign portfolio Flows into 7 ASIAN bourses
Forward P/E ratios of Asian stock markets
4
Commodity Watch
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PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 # 486
24 - 28 Dec 2018
Gross Refinery Margin Olefin Spread NEX Index (Weekly) Positive Negative BCP, IRPC, PTTGC Positive Negative IRPC, PTTGC, SCC Positive Negative BANPU
TOP
Dubai Aromatic Spread BDI Index Positive Negative BCP, IRPC, PTTGC Positive Negative IRPC, PTTGC, TOP Positive Negative JUTHA, PSL,TTA
TOP, PTTEP
Rubber RSS3 Sugar#11 VIX IndexPositive Negative STA Positive Negative KBS, KSL, KTIS Negative Positive SET Index
Soybeans Cotton GOLD Positive Negative TVO Positive Negative IVL Negative Positive SET IndexNegative Positive CPF, GFPT, TU
Unit: US$/ton Unit: US$/ounce
Unit: US cents/Kg Unit: Cents/Ib
Unit: US cents/bushel
Unit: US$/bbl Unit: US$/ton
Unit: US$/bbl
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
Unit: US$/ton Unit: US$/ton
2
4
6
8
10
Jul 18
Au
g 18
Se
p 18
Oct 1
8
Nov 18
Dec 18
GRM 3.03(0.12)
20
40
60
80
100
Jul-1
8
Au
g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
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8
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g-18
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Dec-1
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Spread: HDPE-Naphtha (RHS)HDPE (LHS)Naphtha (LHS)
HDPE spread 622.53(50.97)
0
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0
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1,200
1,400
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8
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g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
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Dec-1
8
Spread: Paraxylene-Naphtha (RHS)
Paraxylene (LHS)
Naphtha (LHS)
PX spread 558.51(8.05)
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g-1
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Baltic Dry Index 1318(-83)
0
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25
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Au
g-1
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p-1
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VIX index 28.38(6.75)
65
75
85
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105
115
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135
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155
Jul-1
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Au
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Au
g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
Nov-1
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Dec-1
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Rubber RSS3 151.5(5.5)
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12
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g-18
Se
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Dec-1
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Soybeans 893.5(-7)40
60
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100
120
Jul-1
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Au
g-18
Se
p-18
Oct-18
Nov-1
8
Dec-1
8
Cotton 75.06(-4.54)
Dubai 54.59(-3.84)
NEX 100.47(-2.25)
Sugar#11 12.43(-0.22)
GOLD 1255(15.85)
Research Team
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PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 #48621 ธ.ค. 61
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Fundamental Analyst Reg No. Tel Sector
Sas ikorn Charoensuwan, CFA, CAIA Capital Market Investment Analyst #9744 662 635 1700 Ext 480 Finance&SecuritiesDanai Tunyaphis i tchai , CFA Capital Market Investment Analyst #2375 662 635 1700 Ext 481 Construction Materials ,
Property Development, Energy
Naree Apisawaittakan Securi ties Investment Analyst #17971 662 635 1700 Ext 484Agribus iness , Food&beverage,
Electronic Components , Energy,
Petrochemicals , ICTSiam Tiyanont Securi ties Investment Analyst #17970 662 635 1700 Ext 483 Transportation, Media & Publ ishingAdisorn Muangparnchon Securi ties Investment Analyst #18577 662 635 1700 Ext 497 Banking, Securi ties & Finance, Hathaichanoke Moonwong Securi ties Investment Analyst #64324 662 635 1700 Ext 530 Health Care, TourismYanin Apichartsakulwong Securi ties Investment Analyst #41993 662 635 1700 Ext 532 Automotive, Commerce, ICTAthid Siriphand Ass istant AnalystPachara Yenpaisarn Ass istant AnalystPatsareeya Phonphala Ass istant Analyst
Strategy
Teerada Charnyingyong Securi ties Investment Analyst #9501 662 635 1700 Ext 487Chutikan Santimetvirul Derivatives Investment Analyst #37928 662 635 1700 Ext 491Klanarong Mongkols i richaikul Securi ties Investment Analyst #66582 662 635 1700 Ext 527Narongdaht Chantarapisal Capital Market Investment Analyst Tanapon Nimittanon Ass istant AnalystNattapart Chunhawattanakul Ass istant Analyst
Technical
Krittinat Pantuwichit Technical Investment Analyst #95239 662 635 1700 Ext 485Danai Tunyaphis i tchai , CFA Ass istant Technical Analyst
Database & Production
Manunpat YuenyongwatanakornKanittha SriwongNannaphat Thanasuwannapong
Translation
Chaiyot IngkhasoraratChaloempong Phantupo
24 - 28 Dec 2018
CG - 2018
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PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 #48621 ธ.ค. 61
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24 - 28 Dec 2018
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PhillipResearch PhillipCapitalTH 02 635 1700 #48621 ธ.ค. 61
7
Thai CAC (As of May 21, 2018)
Declared Non‐participation Non‐participation
A AI AIE AIRA AJ 2S AAV ABICO ACAP ACC TPIPL TPIPP TPOLY TPP TR
ALUCON AMATAV AOT APCO AQUA ADAM AEC AEONTS AF AFC TRC TRITN TRT TRUBB TSF
ARROW ASIA ASK AU BCH AGE AH AHC AIT AJA TSI TSR TSTE TTA TTL
BJC BJCHI BLAND BR BROCK AKR ALLA ALT AMA AMARIN TTTM TTW TUCC TWP TWZ
BRR CEN CGH CHEWA CHG AMATA AMC ANAN APCS APEX TYCN UAC UBIS UEC UKEM
CHOTI CHOW CIG COL COM7 APURE AQ ARIP AS ASAP UMI UMS UNIQ UP UPF
CPALL CPF CPR CSC EKH ASEFA ASIAN ASIMAR ASN ATP30 UPOIC UT UTP UV UVAN
EPCO FC FER FPI FSMART AUCT BA BAT‐3K BCPG BDMS VARO VI VNG VPO VTE
GEL GFPT GGC GIFT GJS BEAUTY BEC BEM BFIT BGRIM WG WHAUP WIN WINNER WORK
GLOBAL GOLD GPSC GREEN GSTEL BGT BH BIG BIZ BKD WORLD WP WPH WR XO
GUNKUL HARN IFS ILINK INET BLISS BM BOL BPP BSBM YCI YNP YUASA ZIGA ZMICO
IRC J JMART JMT JUBILE BSM BTC BTNC BTW BUI
JUTHA KASET KBS KCAR KTECH CBG CCET CCP CGD CHARAN
KWC KYE L&E LEE LIT CHO CHUO CI CITY CK
LVT MAKRO MATCH MATI MBAX CKP CMO CMR CNT COLOR
MC MFEC MIDA MILL ML COMAN CPH CPL CRANE CRD
MTLS NBC NCL NEP NINE CSP CSR CSS CTW CWT
NMG NNCL NTV NUSA NWR D DCON DCORP DELTA DIGI
OGC PACE PAF PAP PATO DNA DTCI EA EARTH EASON
PCSGH PIMO PK PL PLANB ECF EE EFORL EIC EMC
POST PRINC PRO PSTC PYLON EPG ERW ESSO ESTAR ETE
QTC ROH ROJNA RWI SANKO EVER F&D FANCY FMT FN
SAUCE SC SCCC SCN SEAOIL FOCUS FORTH FTE FVC GC
SE‐ED SENA SIRI SMART SPACK GENCO GL GLAND GRAMMY GRAND
SPPT SPRC SR SRICHA SST GTB GYT HFT HOTPOT HPT
STA SUPER SUSCO SWC SYMC HTECH HYDRO ICHI ICN IEC
TAKUNI TBSP TFI THE TICON IHL III INGRS INOX INSURE
TIP TKN TLUXE TMILL TMT IRCP IT ITD ITEL JAS
TNP TPA TRUE TSE TTI JCT JSP JTS JWD KAMART
TU TVD TVO TVT TWPC KC KCM KDH KIAT KKC
U UPA UREKA UWC VGI KOOL KTIS KWG LALIN LDC
VIBHA VIH VNT WAVE WHA LH LOXLEY LPH LRH LST
WICE WIIK LTX M MACO MAJOR MALEE
MANRIN MAX M‐CHAI MCS MDX
Certified MEGA METCO MGT MJD MK
ADVANC AKP AMANAH AP ASP MM MODERN MPG MPIC NC
AYUD BAFS BANPU BAY BBL NCH NDR NETBAY NEW NEWS
BCP BKI BLA BROOK BTS NFC NOBLE NOK NPK NPP
BWG CENTEL CFRESH CIMBT CM NVD NYT OHTL OISHI ORI
CNS CPI CPN CSL DCC OTO PAE PDG PERM PF
DEMCO DIMET DRT DTAC DTC PICO PJW PLANET PLE PMTA
EASTW ECL EGCO FE FNS POLAR POMPUI PPM PRAKIT PRECHA
FSS GBX GCAP GLOW HANA PRIN PRM PTL RAM RCI
HMPRO HTC ICC IFEC INTUCH RCL RICH RICHY RJH ROCK
IRPC IVL K KBANK KCE RP RPC RPH RS S
KGI KKP KSL KTB KTC S11 SAFARI SALEE SAM SAMART
LANNA LHBANK LHK LPN MBK SAMCO SAMTEL SAPPE SAWAD SAWANG
MBKET MCOT MFC MINT MONO SCI SCP SDC SE SEAFCO
MOONG MSC MTI NKI NSI
OCC OCEAN PB PDI PE SELIC SF SFP SGF SHANG
PG PHOL PLAT PM PPP SIAM SIMAT SKN SKR SKY
PPS PRANDA PREB PRG PSH SLP SMK SMM SMT SOLAR
PSL PT PTG PTT PTTEP SPA SPALI SPCG SPG SPORT
PTTGC Q‐CON QH QLT RATCH SPVI SQ SSC SSP STANLY
RML ROBINS S & J SABINA SAT STAR STEC STHAI STPI SUC
SCB SCC SCG SGP SINGER SUTHA SVH SVOA SYNEX T
SIS SITHAI SMIT SMPC SNC TACC TAPAC TASCO TC TCB
SNP SORKON SPC SPI SSF TCC TCCC TCJ TCOAT TEAM
SSI SSSC SVI SYNTEC TAE TFD TFMAMA TGPRO TH THAI
TCAP TCMC TFG TGCI THANI THANA THIP THL TIC TIW
THCOM THRE THREL TIPCO TISCO TK TKS TM TMC TMI
TKT TMB TMD TNITY TNL TMW TNDT TNH TNPC TNR
TOG TOP TPCORP TRU TSC TOA TOPP TPAC TPBI TPCH
TSTH TTCL TVI UOBKH WACOAL
Companies participating in Thailand's Private Sector Collective Action Coalition Against
Corruption programme (Thai CAC) under Thai Institute of Directors (as of May 21, 2018)
Contact Information of Hong Kong Representatives
Research
Benny WANG
Dealing Director
(852) 2277 6720
ZHANG Jing
Research Analyst
Transportation and Automobiles
(86) 21 51699400-103
Terry LI
Research Analyst
TMT, Education and Finance
(852) 2277 6527
Sales
Eurus ZHOU
Research Analyst
Pharmaceutical and Consumer
(852) 2277 6515
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Research Analyst
Retail and Property
(852) 2277 6516
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(852) 2277 6783 (852) 2277 6624
PHILLIP RESEARCH STOCK SELECTION SYSTEMS
Total Return Recommendation Rating Remarks
> +20% Buy 1 >20% upside from the current price
+5% to +20% Accumulate 2 +5% to +20% upside from the current price
-5% to +5% Neutral 3 Trade within +/- 5% from the current price
-5% to -20% Reduce 4 -5% to -20% downside from the current price
< -20% Sell 5 -20% downside from the current price
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a stock’s risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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