Tejas Networks Ltd -...
Transcript of Tejas Networks Ltd -...
INSTITUTIONAL EQUITY RESEARCH
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Tejas Networks Ltd Good growth trajectory and quality management INDIA | IPO Note
16 June 2017
Tejas Networks is a leading Indian company that provides data‐aggregation solutions in optical and data networks. It has customers in 60+ countries, but India is its biggest market. The Indian market is currently undergoing a major transition with the explosion of mobile‐data consumption, which is causing telecom operators to augment their data capacity by ‘fiberisation’ of backhaul networks. Tejas will enjoy strong revenue growth over the next three years, as operators will increasingly use its products to transition to 3G and 4G from 2G. While we remain skeptical about Tejas’ ability to win large deals in metro, long‐haul, and enterprise domains but it has demonstrated a solid execution track record and has immense scope to scale‐up operations geographically. Considering reasonable valuations and improving growth prospects, we recommend subscribe. Product profile tailored for current market conditions: Currently, leading telecom operators are transitioning their network to 3G and 4G from 2G, while increasing fiber connectivity; in this scenario, Tejas’ products portfolio provides cost‐effective solutions to leading operators such as Bharti Airtel and Idea Cellular. Tejas has an end‐to‐end portfolio of optical networking products for access, metro, and long‐haul networks, but its core strength is in access products and solutions – where demand is rising fast. It has invested heavily in research and development in order to grow through multiple technology cycles (2G ‐‐> 3G ‐‐> 4G). It has consistently upgraded or launched new products in anticipation of changing technologies, adoption of faster speed networks, and transformation from legacy to new‐generation networks. It has developed over 300 high‐speed PCBs, over 250 silicon IPs, and more than 3mn lines of software code, and has also filed 326 patent applications. Tejas’ products enable telecommunications networks that carry voice, data, and video traffic from fixed line, mobile, and broadband networks over optical fibre. Well placed to capitalise near‐term growth opportunities: In India, capital expenditure in optical networks as a proportion of the total telecom capex is 7.2% – one of the highest across all countries, reflective of healthy demand outlook driven by many structural factors. Optical equipment expenditure in India is likely to grow to US$ 869mn by 2020 at a CAGR of 14% driven by rising smartphone penetration, increased fiberisation of the backhaul network, growth in data centre construction, and a massive increase in data traffic. In contrast, global optical capital expenditure CAGR is likely to be 4% – an increase from US$ 14.6bn in 2014 to US$ 17.9bn in 2020 (Source: Company RHP). Quality management with solid execution track record: The Indian market is, perhaps, the most competitive market in the world – where operators have stretched balance sheets limiting their capex abilities. The biggest competitor in India is ultra‐aggressive Chinese player Huawei. Tejas’ management has demonstrated its ability in competing against Chinese players, consistently winning tenders, and growing its revenue base. Offer details and valuations: Tejas will be offering fresh equity worth Rs 4.5bn and an offer for sale of Rs 3.3bn. At the top end of the price band, it will have a market capitalisation of Rs 23.5bn, translating into a PER of 37x on FY17 earnings. Earnings growth for the next three years will be high because of strong earnings growth driven by robust revenue growth. Considering the high medium‐term growth trajectory and quality management, we recommend subscribe.
SUBSCRIBE COMPANY DATA ISSUE OPENS 14th June 2017ISSUE CLOSES 16th June 2017PRE‐ ISSUE EQUITY SHARES 74 mnPRICE BAND 250‐257 Rs NO OF SHARES TO BE ISSUED 17.5‐18.0 mnISSUE SIZE Rs 7.7bnMKT CAP Rs 23.5bn Consolidated Financials Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17Net Sales 4,231 3,868 6,275 8,782EBIDTA 950 685 1,130 1,742Net Profit 28 ‐179 290 632
EPS, Rs. 0.3 (2.0) 3.2 6.9P/E@Rs 257 847 (132) 81 37
Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (+ 9122 6246 4122) [email protected] Manoj Behera (+ 9122 6246 4116) [email protected]
TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
About the IPO • Rs 4.5bn fresh issue at Rs 250‐257 per share • Offer for sale of up to 12.71mn shares at Rs 250‐257 per share • Market capitalisation after the issue: Rs 23.0‐23.5bn. Net proceeds will be used for Rs mnCapital expenditure towards payment of salaries and wages of R&D Team 453Working capital requirement 3,030General corporate purpose NA
Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research
About the company Tejas Networks is a leading Indian company providing data‐aggregation solutions in the domain of optical and data networks. It has customers in over 60 countries, but India is its biggest market. It provides an end‐to‐end portfolio of optical and data‐networking products covering access, metro, and long‐haul networks. Tejas’ products enable telecommunication networks that carry voice, data, and video traffic from fixed‐line, mobile, and broadband networks over optical fiber
Source: Company presentation Product profile of Tejas Network Optical networking products CPO products
PTN products DWDM products
New broadband access products GPON‐based broadband access products 4G/ LTE‐based wireless broadband access products Enterprise ethernet switches
Network Management Software
Source: Company presentation
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TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
Customer profile of Tejas Networks
•BBNL•BSNL•PGCIL•Railtel
India ‐ PSU
•Aircel•Bharti Airtel•Idea•Tata Communications
India ‐ Private
•Ciena (USA)•NEC (USA)
International ‐OEM
•Sacofa (Malaysia)•Summit Communications (Bangladesh)•West Indian Ocean Cable Co. (Kenya)
International ‐Direct
Source: Company presentation Products vs. services (% of revenue from operations (net))
Services, 5%
Products, 95%
FY16
Services, 4%
Products, 96%
FY17
Source: Company presentation
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TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
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Geographical segmentation (% of revenue from operations (net))
Source: Company presentation Customer segments (% of revenue from operations (net))
Source: Company presentation Customer segments (% of revenue from operations (net))
Source: Company presentation
India, 70%
Americas, 19%
Others, 11%
FY16
India, 63%
Americas, 14%
Others, 23%
FY17
India ‐ PSU, 42%
India ‐ PVT, 28%
International, 30%
FY16
India ‐ PSU, 44%
India ‐ PVT, 19%
International, 37%
FY17
56%
67%
58%
FY15 FY16 FY17
TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
Key growth drivers for telecommunications networks Total global telecommunications access‐network traffic is likely to see a CAGR of 25% from 2015‐2020 (Source: RHP). Evolution of high‐speed internet technologies (4G/4.5G/5G), proliferation of powerful networking devices and smartphones, growth in enterprise cloud services and data centres, games, and high‐definition video content are driving data consumption.
Growth drivers in the Indian telecommunication equipment market Increased use of smartphones and mobile data usage: Total wireless broadband subscription in India is expected to cross 1bn by 2021 from current levels of 265mn. Broadband penetration is likely to reach 75% by 2021 (Source: Company RHP). Increased use of smartphones driving data
107
261
566
918
0
200
400
600
800
1000
2014 2016 2018 2020
Mobile broadband subscriptions in India (mn users)
Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research Fiberisation of backhaul network
<20%
45‐55%50‐60%
70‐80%
0
10
20
30
40
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60
70
80
India South Africa SEA Benchmark Developed Country Benchmark
Proportion of network sites that have been fiberized around the world in 2015 (%)
According to Deloitte, in India, less than 20% sites are fiberised compared to 70‐80% sites in a developed country
Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research
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TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
Government initiatives: The 'Digital India' program is a flagship program of the Government of India with a vision to transform India into a digitally empowered society and knowledge economy. Other key initiatives generally affecting the Indian telecommunications industry are National Optical Fibre Network (Bharatnet), Make in India, National Knowledge Network and Smart Cities. Capital expenditure in optical networks – a small but critical aspect of the network Capital expenditure in optical networks, as a proportion of the total telecommunications capital expenditure, differs in different economies around the world. India, China, and Asia and Oceania region were forecasted to spend 7.2%, 6.3%, and 5.3% of their telecommunications capital expenditure budgets on optical networks in 2015 – projecting a growth in investment and development of this market (Source: Company RHP). Comparison of capex in optical networks as a % of total capex
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8% High ratio Medium ratio Low ratio
Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research Growth in global optical networking market is primarily driven by three fundamental reasons: (1) geographical expansion, (2) capacity expansion, and (3) interconnections among CSPs and others. Driven by rising smartphone penetration and a massive increase in data traffic, global optical capital expenditure is likely to increase from US$ 14.6bn in 2014 to US$ 17.9bn in 2020 (Source: Company RHP). Product segments
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Aggregation 4,908 3,666 3,047 2,882 2,856 2,811 2,750 2,677 2,590Aggregation TDM 3,462 2,152 1,495 1,120 908 687 558 473 443Aggregation CPO 1,446 1,514 1,552 1,762 1,947 2,124 2,191 2,204 2,147Bandwidth Management Revenues 515 272 161 147 134 119 118 112 105WDM/CPO‐T 8,715 9,972 10,463 10,718 11,368 12,083 12,822 13,602 14,436WDM/CPO 4,457 5,798 6,746 7,177 7,817 8,506 9,237 10,011 10,840WDM 4,258 4,174 3,717 3,541 3,551 3,577 3,585 3,591 3,596WDM/CPO‐T Access 471 505 571 571 645 736 818 902 990WDM/CPO‐T Metro 4,494 5,250 5,363 5,487 5,949 6,402 6,866 7,405 7,981WDM/CPO‐T Backbone 3,750 4,217 4,529 4,660 4,774 4,946 5,138 5,295 5,465SLTE 460 556 400 592 639 691 732 776 822Total ON Product Segments 14,598 14,466 14,071 14,339 14,997 15,703 16,421 17,166 17,954
Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research
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TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
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Global aggregation product segment Q3FY15 – Q2FY16: US$ 2.5bn market
Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research Optical equipment expenditure in India is likely to grow to US$ 869mn by 2020 (CAGR of 14%) from US$ 391mn in 2014 (Source: Company RHP). Optical Networking Product Segment 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 CAGR(2014
‐2020)Aggregation 229 161 173 233 256 269 282 294 307 10.0%Aggregation TDM 160 88 82 93 78 53 52 49 46 ‐9.2%Aggregation CPO 69 73 91 139 178 215 230 245 261 19.2%Bandwidth Management Revenues 15 7 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 7.0%WDM/CPO‐T 147 188 214 279 332 379 431 490 556 17.2%WDM/CPO 66 102 127 181 226 268 316 371 434 22.7%WDM 81 87 87 98 107 111 115 118 122 5.8%WDM/CPO‐T Access 7 7 9 10 12 13 14 16 17 11.2%WDM/CPO‐T Metro 40 74 88 103 131 157 187 221 261 19.9%WDM/CPO‐T Backbone 100 107 117 165 190 209 230 253 278 15.5%Total Revenue 390 357 391 516 594 653 718 790 869 14.2%
Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research India Optical Networking market share Q22015 to Q12016 (US$0.6bn)
Source: RHP, PhillipCapital India Research
ZTE, 24%
Huawei, 16%
Fiberhome, 16%
Nokia, 10%
ECI Telecom, 9%
Tejas, 4%
Fujitsu, 4%
Coriant, 3%
NEC, 2%Ciena, 2% Other, 10%
Huawei, 36%
Tejas, 15%Nokia, 12%
ECI Telecom, 10%
Ciena, 9%
ZTE, 5%
Fibrehome, 3%Others, 10%
TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
Financials Profit & Loss Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17Net sales 3,693 4,231 3,868 6,275 8,782Growth, % 83 15 ‐9 62 40Total income 3,693 4,231 3,868 6,275 8,782Raw material expenses ‐2,258 ‐2,085 ‐1,981 ‐3,507 ‐5,141Employee expenses ‐451 ‐449 ‐495 ‐665 ‐763Other Operating expenses ‐542 ‐747 ‐707 ‐972 ‐1,136EBITDA (Core) 442 950 685 1,130 1,742Growth, % NM 115 ‐28 65 54Margin, % 12.0 22.4 17.7 18.0 19.8Depreciation ‐480 ‐559 ‐486 ‐382 ‐564EBIT ‐39 391 200 748 1,178Growth, % NM NM ‐49 274.8 57.5Margin, % NM 9.2 5.2 11.9 13.4Interest paid ‐356 ‐460 ‐470 ‐493 ‐315Other Income 95 96 91 35 87Non‐recurring Items ‐488 0 0 0 ‐305Pre‐tax profit ‐788 28 ‐179 290 645Tax provided ‐2 0 0 0 ‐13Profit after tax ‐790 28 ‐179 290 632Others (Minorities, Associates) Net Profit ‐790 28 ‐179 290 632Growth, % NM NM NM (262.3) 118.0Net Profit (adjusted) ‐302 28 ‐179 290 937
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research Balance Sheet As at 31st Mar, Rs mn FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17Cash & bank 584 229 499 694 709Debtors 1,379 2,233 2,076 2,542 3,580Inventory 2,141 2,086 2,209 2,317 1,817Loans & advances 434 381 317 342 417Other current assets 47 163 215 150 71Total current assets 4,586 5,092 5,317 6,045 6,594Investments 0 0 0 0 0Net tangible assets 133 290 261 291 280Intangible assets 635 356 248 652 641Add: Capital WIP 713 837 878 518 186LT Loans & advances 489 538 546 560 291Other non‐current assets 9 340 30 316 1,170Non‐current assets 1,978 2,360 1,963 2,338 2,568Total assets 6,563 7,452 7,281 8,383 9,162 Current liabilities 1,035 1,372 1,376 1,996 1,400Provisions 10 20 20 29 38Other current liabilities 78 179 357 203 402Total current liabilities 1,123 1,571 1,753 2,228 1,840Non‐current liabilities 2 4 0 0 0LT Provisions 26 16 14 20 36Total liabilities 1,150 1,592 1,767 2,247 1,876Total borrowings 2,202 2,616 2,202 2,530 2,279Paid‐up capital 1,010 1,010 1,255 665 740Reserves & surplus 2,202 2,235 2,056 2,940 4,267Shareholders’ equity 3,212 3,245 3,312 3,605 5,007Total equity & liabilities 6,563 7,452 7,281 8,383 9,162
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research
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TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
Cash Flow Y/E Mar, Rs mn FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17Pre‐tax profit ‐790 28 ‐179 290 645Depreciation 480 559 486 382 564Chg in working capital 19 ‐844 ‐136 10 ‐948Total tax paid 2 ‐26 ‐24 ‐22 ‐64Cash flow from operating activities 252 269 760 1,268 829Capital expenditure ‐227 ‐561 ‐385 ‐457 ‐515Cash flow from investing activities ‐1 ‐744 ‐286 ‐504 ‐1,415Free cash flow 252 ‐476 474 764 ‐586Equity raised/(repaid) 394 0 246 0 772Debt raised/(repaid) 46 611 ‐164 85 ‐51Cash flow from financing activities 84 154 ‐396 ‐405 405Net chg in cash 336 ‐322 78 359 ‐181
Source: Company, PhillipCapital India Research
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TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
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Rating Methodology We rate stock on absolute return basis. Our target price for the stocks has an investment horizon of one year. Rating Criteria Definition
BUY >= +15% Target price is equal to or more than 15% of current market price
NEUTRAL ‐15% > to < +15% Target price is less than +15% but more than ‐15%
SELL <= ‐15% Target price is less than or equal to ‐15%.
Management Vineet Bhatnagar (Managing Director) (91 22) 2483 1919 Kinshuk Bharti Tiwari (Head – Institutional Equity) (91 22) 6246 4101 Jignesh Shah (Head – Equity Derivatives) (91 22) 6667 9735 Research Automobiles IT Services Pharma & Specialty Chem Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6246 4128 Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6246 4109 Surya Patra (9122) 6246 4121 Nitesh Sharma, CFA (9122) 6246 4126 Shyamal Dhruve (9122) 6246 4110 Mehul Sheth (9122) 6246 4123 Banking, NBFCs Infrastructure Strategy Manish Agarwalla (9122) 6246 4125 Vibhor Singhal (9122) 6246 4109 Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6246 4122 Pradeep Agrawal (9122) 6246 4113 Paresh Jain (9122) 6246 4114 Logistics, Transportation & Midcap Telecom Consumer & Retail Vikram Suryavanshi (9122) 6246 4111 Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6246 4122 Naveen Kulkarni, CFA, FRM (9122) 6246 4122 Media Manoj Behera (9122) 6246 4118 Jubil Jain (9122) 6246 4117 Manoj Behera (9122) 6246 4118 Technicals Preeyam Tolia (9122) 6246 4129 Metals Subodh Gupta, CMT (9122) 6246 4136 Cement Dhawal Doshi (9122) 6246 4128 Production Manager Vaibhav Agarwal (9122) 6246 4124 Ganesh Deorukhkar (9122) 6667 9966 Economics Mid-Caps & Database Manager Editor Anjali Verma (9122) 6246 4115 Deepak Agarwal (9122) 6246 4112 Roshan Sony 98199 72726 Shruti Bajpai (9122) 6246 4135 Oil & Gas Sr. Manager – Equities Support Engineering, Capital Goods Sabri Hazarika (9122) 6667 9756 Rosie Ferns (9122) 6667 9971 Jonas Bhutta (9122) 6246 4119 Vikram Rawat (9122) 6246 4120 Sales & Distribution Corporate Communications Ashvin Patil (9122) 6246 4105 Sales Trader Zarine Damania (9122) 6667 9976 Shubhangi Agrawal (9122) 6246 4103 Dilesh Doshi (9122) 6667 9747 Kishor Binwal (9122) 6246 4106 Suniil Pandit (9122) 6667 9745 Bhavin Shah (9122) 6246 4102 Ashka Mehta Gulati (9122) 6246 4108 Execution Archan Vyas (9122) 6246 4107 Mayur Shah (9122) 6667 9945
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TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
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TEJAS NETWORKS LTD IPO NOTE
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