TEFAF presentation 2012
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Transcript of TEFAF presentation 2012
16th March, 2012
Dr. Clare Mc Andrew
ARTS ECONOMICS
©Arts Economics 2012©Arts Economics 2012
The Global Art Market
©Arts Economics 2012
• Analysis of the market in 2011
• Trends in the market over 25 years
• Impact and outlook
Value and Volume of Sales
©Arts Economics 2012
€18.6
€48.1
€28.3
€43.0€46.1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
€0
€10
€20
€30
€40
€50
€60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
VALUE (€bn) VOLUME (m)
Fine Art Top Prices in 2011
Roy Lichtenstein
8/11/11
Christie’s (Paris)
€45 million
Clyfford Still
9/11/11
Sotheby’s (New York)
€45 million
Qi Bashi
22/5/11
China Guardian
(Beijing)
€46 million
Francesco Guardi
6/7/11
Sotheby’s (New
York) €30 million
Wang Meng
4/6/11
Poly International (Beijing)
€43 million
©Arts Economics 2012
Paul Cezanne
Summer 2011
UNCONFIRMED
Private Sale
$250+ million USD
Fine Art Auction Market 2011
©Arts Economics
2012
Over €500,000
1%
€50,000 to €500,000
6%Less than €50,000
93%
Share of Lots Sold
Over €500,000
50%
€50,000 to €500,000
31%
Less than €50,000
19%
Share of Sales Value
Dealer Market 2011
©Arts Economics
2012
Over €500,0003%
€50,000 to €500,000
17%
Less than €50,000
80%
Global Market Share 2011
©Arts Economics 2012
China 30%
US 29%
UK 22%
Others 10%
France 6%
Switzerland 3%
€691€1,516 €1,560
€2,012 €2,152 €2,151
€5,962
€9,808
€0
€2,000
€4,000
€6,000
€8,000
€10,000
€12,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Chinese Auction
Sales
©Arts Economics 2012
Chinese Auction Transactions
©Arts Economics 2012
99,797 112,616 108,923 127,851 117,992 138,304
219,252
284,941
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Lots Offered Lots Sold
Buy-ins
Chinese Art Market:
Risk Factors
©Arts Economics 2012
• Regional buyer base
• Auction dominated
• Issues in legal and regulatory framework
• Some shortage of expertise
• Non and late payment at auction
• Potential credit crunch and lack of liquidity
Ink Horse Painting
Xu Beihong
The Global Contemporary
Sector
©Arts Economics 2012
€91.7 €84.7
€172.5
€219.8
€433.7
€871.3€914.9
€312.7
€580.0
€944.8
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
€0
€200
€400
€600
€800
€1,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mill
ion
Eu
ro
Value Volume
The Modern Sector
©Arts Economics 2012
€1,337€1,106
€1,506
€1,884
€2,918
€3,838
€3,125
€1,719
€3,531
€5,674
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
€0
€1,000
€2,000
€3,000
€4,000
€5,000
€6,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mill
ion
Eu
ro
Value Volume
Old Masters Market Share
©Arts Economics
2012
China 53%UK 16%
US 16%
France 4%
Switzerland 3%
Others 9%
VALUE
US 18%
China 18%
UK 15%France
12%
Germany 10%
Others 27%
VOLUME
Key Trends Over 25 Years
©Arts Economics 2012
• Massive increase in size of sales (volume and value)• Globalisation of supply and demand• Growth of internet • Changing infrastructure of the art trade• Event-driven market and growth of art fairs• Changing tastes (rise of Contemporary/ decline older sectors)• Rise of art as investment• Competition for supply• Increased burden of regulation
Global Sales 1990-2011
©Arts Economics 2012
$27.2
$9.7
$14.3
$19.9
$65.8
$39.4
$64.1
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Bill
ion
USD
Growth of the Internet
©Arts Economics 2012
• Integral communication and marketing device for the trade
• Increased transparency
• Lower margins
• Online sales remain low
• More information but still more expertise required
Changes in the Structure of the
Trade
©Arts Economics 2012
•Growth of auction houses as retailers and increases in private sales
•Fairs and the event-driven market
• Retail gallery in decline
•Rise of the art consultant
•The artist as a market force
© Bob and Roberta Smith, Save the Arts
Outlook
• Art market makes large economic contribution- over 403,000 global businesses
• Supported 2.4 million jobs in 2011
• Ancillary industry spending of over €11.5 billion
• Globalisation, information distribution and patterns of wealth shaping market in 2012
• Continued economic uncertainty:
➥Art as a valid alternative investment - increased demand
➥Lack of alternatives to art - reduced supply
©Arts Economics 2012