Teekay Tankers · write-offs or other non-recurring items, less unrealized gains from derivatives...
Transcript of Teekay Tankers · write-offs or other non-recurring items, less unrealized gains from derivatives...
Teekay TankersQ1-2019 Earnings Presentation
May 23, 2019
This presentation contains forward-looking statements (as defined in Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of1934, as amended) which reflect management’s current views with respect to certain future events and performance,including, among other things, statements regarding: the effect of financing transactions recently completed on theCompany’s liquidity; expected contract commencement dates; and crude oil and refined product tanker marketfundamentals, including the balance of supply and demand in the oil and tanker markets, the occurrence and expectedtiming of a tanker market recovery, forecasts of worldwide tanker fleet growth, the amount of tanker scrapping andnewbuilding tanker deliveries, estimated growth in global oil demand and supply, future tanker rates, future OPEC oilproduction, the expected increase in global refinery throughput, the expected increase in U.S. crude oil production andexports and the corresponding impact on mid-size tanker demand, and estimated impact of IMO 2020 regulations ontanker demand. The following factors are among those that could cause actual results to differ materially from theforward-looking statements, which involve risks and uncertainties, and that should be considered in evaluating any suchstatement: the potential for early termination of charter contracts of existing vessels in the Company's fleet; the inabilityof charterers to make future charter payments; the inability of the Company to renew or replace charter contracts;changes in tanker rates; changes in the production of, or demand for, oil or refined products; changes in tradingpatterns significantly affecting overall vessel tonnage requirements; greater or less than anticipated levels of tankernewbuilding orders and deliveries and greater or less than anticipated rates of tanker scrapping; changes in global oilprices; changes in applicable industry laws and regulations and the timing of implementation of new laws andregulations and the impact of such changes; increased costs; and other factors discussed in Teekay Tankers’ filingsfrom time to time with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including its Annual Report on Form 20-F for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2018. The Company expressly disclaims any obligation or undertaking torelease publicly any updates or revisions to any forward-looking statements contained herein to reflect any change inthe Company’s expectations with respect thereto or any change in events, conditions or circumstances on which anysuch statement is based.
Forward Looking Statement
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Recent Highlights
Q1-19 Results Financing Initiatives Charters
Total adjusted EBITDA(1) of $63.4 million, up from $63.0 million in Q4-18
Adjusted net income(1) of $14.6 million, or $0.05 per share, up from an adjusted net income(1)
of $14.0 million, or $0.05 per share, in Q4-18
Completed previously announced sale-leaseback relating to two Suezmaxtankers, which increased liquidity by $25 million
Increased amount available under RSA working capital loan, which provides $15 million of additional liquidity
Chartered-out a Suezmaxvessel for 6 months at $27,500 per day
Chartered-in an Aframaxvessel for a firm period of 2 years at $21,000 per day, plus an extension option
(1) These are non-GAAP financial measures. Please see Teekay Tankers’ Q1-19 earnings release for definitions and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP
measures.
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Tanker Rates Resilient in the Face of Near-Term Headwinds
Best Q1 earnings since 2016; Q2 seasonally weaker
$14
$28
$39
$36
$22
$13
$24
$12
$23
$31
$27
$19
$15
$25
0
10
20
30
40
‘00
0 U
SD
/ d
ay
Q1 Average Earnings
Suezmax Aframax
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
‘00
0 U
SD
/ d
ay
Earnings (Last 12 Months)
Suezmax Aframax
Source: Teekay Tankers Source: Clarksons
Tanker Demand Set To Increase From 2H-2019
Near-term headwinds expected to give way to longer-term tailwinds
• IMO 2020 expected to be a positive demand event from 2H-2019 onwards
• Higher refinery runs and increased crude throughput
• New trading patterns for both crude and product
• Floating storage
5
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
MB
/D
Source: IEA
Refinery Throughput Set to Surge
1.1
1.9
1.41.6
1.41.3
1.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
20
20
Ch
an
ge i
n D
em
an
d (
mb
/d)
Average of IEA, EIA, and OPEC
Steady Oil Demand Growth
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
MB
/D
Source: EIA, IEA
US Crude Exports to Exceed 4 mb/d
Asia Europe
Americas Canada
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-1
5
Apr-
15
Jul-1
5
Oct-
15
Jan-1
6
Apr-
16
Jul-1
6
Oct-
16
Jan-1
7
Apr-
17
Jul-1
7
Oct-
17
Jan-1
8
Apr-
18
Jul-1
8
Oct-
18
Jan-1
9
Millio
n B
arr
els
Source: IEA
Balanced Oil Market
OECD oil inventories
vs. 5-year average
Extended Period Of Low Fleet Growth Ahead
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Small orderbook and aging fleet expected to keep fleet growth low
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
20
18
20
19
Source: Clarksons
Suez / Afra Orderbook as % of Fleet
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
No
. S
hip
s
Source: Clarksons / Internal Estimates
Suezmax Fleet Growth
Deliveries Delivery Forecast Scrapping Forecast Scrapping Net Fleet Growth
0 200 400 600 800 1000
Afra O'book
Afra Fleet
Suez O'book
Suez Fleet
Number of ShipsSource: Clarksons
Fleet Age Profile (Suez / Afra)
>15 yrs
10-15 yrs
<10 yrs
Orderbook
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
No
. S
hip
s
Source: Clarksons / Internal Estimates
Aframax Fleet Growth
Note: Aframax data includes both
coated and uncoated vessels
84%
85%
86%
87%
88%
89%
90%
91%
92%
93%
94%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E
% F
lee
t U
tili
za
tio
n
% S
up
ply
/ D
em
an
d G
row
th
Source: Clarksons / Internal Estimates
Tanker Fleet Utilization Forecast
Demand Supply Fleet Utilization
Tanker Fleet Utilization Forecast
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Return to “full” fleet utilization in 2020
Q2-19 Spot Earnings Update
(1) Combined average spot TCE rate including Teekay Suezmax RSA, Teekay Suezmax Classic RSA and non-pool voyage charters
(2) Combined average spot TCE rate including Teekay Aframax RSA, Teekay Aframax Classic RSA, non-pool voyage charters and full service lightering (FSL) voyages
(3) Combined average spot TCE rate including Teekay Taurus RSA and non-pool voyage charters.
Suezmax Aframax LR2
Q2-19 spot ship
days available2,430 1,752 900
Q2-19 % booked
to-date61% 55% 54%
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$12,750 $12,100
$10,900
$17,300
$21,200
$15,000
-
10,000
20,000
Suezmax Aframax LR2
Q2-18 Actual Q2-19 to-date
Appendix
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TNK Offers Significant Upside in Tanker Market Recovery
(1) Free cash flow (FCF) represents net income, plus depreciation and amortization, unrealized losses from derivatives, non-cash items, FCF from equity accounted investments and any
write-offs or other non-recurring items, less unrealized gains from derivatives and other non-cash items. Please refer to the Teekay Tankers Earnings Releases for reconciliation to
most directly comparable GAAP financial measure.
(2) For 12 months ending Q1-20
(3) Based on weighted average number of forecast Suezmax and Aframax / LR2 spot market ship days for 12 months ending Q1-20
(4) Mid-cycle spot rates based on 90% Clarksons global average 15-year mean
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$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
$ P
er
Sh
are
per
an
nu
m
Average Mid-Sized TCE3
FCF1 Per Share Spot Rate Sensitivity2
Mid-cycle rates3,4
Debt Repayment Profile
(1) Pro-forma debt repayment profile as at March 31, 2019, including the Q2-19 two-vessel sale-leaseback transaction. Repayments are presented for the remaining 9 months of 2019.
(2) Working Capital Loan with an initial maturity date in August 2019 but shall be continually extended for periods of six months thereafter until the lender gives notice in writing that no
further extensions shall occur 11
$25
$402
$46
$76$102
$12
$17 $25
$27
$29
$31
$9 $12
$12
$17
$-
$40
$80
$120
$160
$200
$240
$280
$320
$360
$400
$440
$480
$520
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023
Balloon Payments Repayments (Loans) Capital Leases Revolver Amort
$ M
illio
ns
2
1
Fleet Employment – In Charter
(1) Based on existing charters excluding extension options
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Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019 Q1-2020 Q2-2020 Q3-2020 Q4-2020 Q1-2021 Q2-2021 Q3-2021 Q4-2021
Aframax/LR2 Days 455 511 478 364 364 368 368 181 91 41 -
Aframax/LR2 Rates 19,000 19,200 20,076 21,188 21,188 21,188 21,188 21,482 21,000 21,000 -
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Ship
Day
s
Aframax/LR2 Days
Fleet Employment –Out-Charters1
(1) Based on existing charters excluding extension options and expected drydock/ off-hire days noted on slide 19
(2) Excludes full service lightering
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2
Q2-2019 Q3-2019 Q4-2019 Q1-2020 Q2-2020 Q3-2020 Q4-2020 Q1-2021 Q2-2021 Q3-2021 Q4-2021
Suezmax Days 173 49 - - - - - - - - -
Aframax/LR2 Days 137 138 118 46 46 46 46 8 - - -
Suezmax Rates 22,237 20,415 - - - - - - - - -
Aframax/LR2 Rates 18,833 18,833 18,975 20,500 20,500 20,500 20,500 20,500 - - -
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
Ship
Day
s
Suezmax Days Aframax/LR2 Days
Q2-2019 Outlook
(1) Changes described are after adjusting Q1-19 for items included in Appendix A of Teekay Tankers Q1-19 Earnings Release and realized gains and losses on derivatives (see
slide 16 to this earnings presentation for the Consolidated Adjusted Line Items for Q1-19).
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Income Statement Item Q2-19 Outlook
(expected changes from Q1-19)
Revenues
Decrease of approximately 60 net revenue days in TNK, mainly due to more scheduled drydocks in Q2-
19, partially offset by more calendar days in Q2-19 and a full quarter of operation of two chartered-in
vessels that were delivered to us in Q1-19.
Refer to Slide 8 for Q2-19 to-date spot tanker rates.
Time-charter hire expensesIncrease of approximately $1.0 million due to a full quarter of operation of two chartered-in vessels that
were delivered to us in Q1-19.
Depreciation and amortization Increase of approximately $0.5 million primarily due to amortization of recent drydock costs.
General and administrative expenses Increase of approximately $0.5 million primarily due to timing of corporate costs.
Adjusted Net Income
Q1-2019 vs Q4-2018
(1) Refer to slide 16 for the Q1-19 reconciliations of non-GAAP financial measures to the most directly comparable financial measures under United States generally accepted
accounting principles (GAAP). For the Q4-18 reconciliation, refer to page 17 of the Q4-18 earnings presentation.
(In thousands of U.S. dollars)
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Statement ItemQ1-2019
(unaudited)
Q4-2018
(unaudited)Variance Comments
Revenues 232,488 239,997 (7,509) Decrease primarily due to few er full service lightering voyages, partially offset by higher overall spot rates and
reimbursable staff costs related to an LNG terminal operations contract.
Voyage expenses (97,339) (110,602) 13,263 Decrease primarily due to few er full service lightering voyages, partially offset by more vessels trading in the spot
market in Q1-19 compared to Q4-18.
Vessel operating expenses (54,587) (51,323) (3,264) Increase primarily due to the timing of maintenance and purchasing activities, as w ell as reimbursable staff costs
related to an LNG terminal operations contract that w ere incurred starting in mid Q1-19.
Time-charter hire expenses (9,448) (4,841) (4,607) Increase primarily due to the timing of in-chartered vessels that w ere delivered to us at various time in Q1-19 and
Q4-18.
Depreciation and amortization (29,865) (29,916) 51
General and administrative expenses (9,165) (11,836) 2,671 Decrease primarily due to non-recurring expenses recognized in Q4-18.
Income from operations 32,084 31,479 605
Interest expense (15,988) (16,245) 257
Interest income 365 311 54
Equity income 753 955 (202)
Other expense (2,567) (2,498) (69)
Adjusted net income 14,647 14,002 645
Consolidated Adjusted Statement of Income
Q1-2019
(In thousands of U.S. dollars)
16(1) Please refer to Appendix A in Teekay Tankers Q1-19 Earnings Release for a description of Appendix A items.
Statement Item As Reported Appendix A
Items (1)
Reclassification for
Realized Gain/
Loss on Derivatives
As Adjusted
Revenues 232,501 - (13) 232,488
Voyage expenses (97,339) - - (97,339)
Vessel operating expenses (54,587) - - (54,587)
Time-charter hire expenses (9,448) - - (9,448)
Depreciation and amortization (29,865) - - (29,865)
General and administrative expenses (9,165) - - (9,165)
Income from operations 32,097 - (13) 32,084
Interest expense (16,942) - 954 (15,988)
Interest income 365 - - 365
Realized and unrealized loss on derivative instruments (847) 1,788 (941) -
Equity income 753 - - 753
Other expense (2,979) 412 - (2,567)
Net income 12,447 2,200 - 14,647
Drydock & Off-hire Schedule
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Teekay Tankers March 31, 2019 (A) June 30, 2019 (E) September 30, 2019 (E) December 31, 2019 (E) Total 2019
Segment
Vessels
Total
Off-hire
Days
Vessels
Total
Off-hire
Days
Vessels
Total
Off-hire
Days
Vessels
Total
Off-hire
Days
Vessels
Total
Off-hire
Days
Spot Tanker 3 107 10 301 3 90 - 6 16 504
Fixed-Rate Tanker - - - - - - - - - -
Other - Unplanned Offhire - 123 - 80 - 60 - 60 - 323
3 230 10 381 3 150 - 66 16 827
Note:
(1) Includes vessels scheduled for drydocking and an estimate of unscheduled offhire.
(2) In the case that a vessel drydock & offhire straddles between quarters, the drydock & offhire has been allocated to the quarter in which majority of drydock days occur.
(3) Only owned vessels are accounted for in this schedule and vessel count only reflects the vessels with drydock related offhire.
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